FXUS61 KAKQ 160717 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 06z/16 TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly. An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details. Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area. For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highest SE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, a cold front is situated to the south of the local area, with widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs in its wake. CIGs will continue to deteriorate early this morning, with LIFR possible at RIC, ORF, and PHF as we approach ~10-13z. In addition, light rain showers are possible across far northern portions of the area early this morning, with the highest chances at SBY. Light rain at SBY will likely keep CIGs from dropping to IFR until closer to sunrise. The cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front later this morning, leading to an increasing S-SW wind and a rapid improvement in flight conditions back to VFR ~14-16z. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the remainder of the forecast period, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) chances this evening into tonight. S-SW winds may be gusty at times later this morning into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later tonight through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially in the east. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south of the area returns north as a warm front. - SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area Friday night. - Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the waters outside of the rivers. NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be dropped at 4pm. NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front currently over NC will quickly move north Friday morning allowing winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday. However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE. However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be introduced into the lower James as some point. Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8 to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AC/MRD CLIMATE...LKB