FXUS63 KABR 240619
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
119 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for portions of south 
central and northeastern SD this afternoon and evening and a 
Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for the remainder of central and 
northeast SD into west central MN. The main hazards include golf 
ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, storms are staying in western SD and out of our 
forecast area. Temperatures are in the 60s with winds out of the 
east to southeast at around 10 mph. A warm front followed by a cold 
front will move across the region throughout the day and into the 
evening hours. This warm front will help temperatures be a little 
warmer today with highs in the 80s to low 90s, warmest across 
central SD.

The cold front will help pop off some thunderstorms this evening 
across central SD that will move southeast and across the area. 
There could be a second wave that moves down out of North Dakota 
closer to midnight Tuesday morning. There is a Slight risk (level 2 
out of 5) for portions of south central SD and portions of 
northeastern SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe 
storms across the remainder of the forecast area. The main hazards 
for these storms will be golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind 
gusts. PWAT values are around 1.25" which is in the 97th NAEFS 
percentile so some brief heavy downpours are possible as well, 
although as a secondary threat. Overall chance of storms is 30-40% 
with the first round along the Missouri River and east to the James 
River. With the second round after midnight, chances across far 
northeastern SD increase to 40-60%. Our next widespread chance for 
storms will be Thursday evening into Friday as a low coming off the 
Rockies pushes out high pressure. Saturday and Sunday evenings could 
be stormy as well as we return to a more active pattern, but 
confidence on severe weather is low at this time.

Temperatures after today return to right about normal, with a slight 
increase towards the end of the period. Winds Tuesday behind the 
cold front could gust up to 35 mph in northern SD. That cold
front also looks to bring another round of elevated smoke to 
the area for Tuesday. There could be a band of higher 
concentrations over northeast SD, but little to no smoke is 
expected at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20