FXUS63 KABR 230516 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during
  the day Sunday into Sunday evening over central SD, expanding
  to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while 
  increasing to a 40-60% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
  Sunday evening over much of central to northeastern SD. The 
  main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts 
  exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather 
  Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Models still show potential for elevated showers/thundershowers
across central/south central SD between 06Z and 12Z
tonight/early Sunday morning. Therefore, no big changes to the
30-50% chances across the southwest CWA late tonight. Surface
high pressure over the eastern CWA this evening will slowly push
eastward by 12Z Sunday as southeast winds and return flow set up
over central SD overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil 
weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift 
eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM 
to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak 
showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD 
between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern 
Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers 
become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and 
north central SD.

A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe 
storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals 
among models with convection developing over south central ND around 
midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. 
These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking 
southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear 
appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop 
off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the 
instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind 
gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement 
reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy 
rainfall with some storms. 

The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with 
mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A 
frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 
40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter 
size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions 
midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of 
pcpn Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening.
Thunderstorms may impact KPIR early this morning and KMBG/KPIR 
this evening. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...20