FXUS63 KABR 161902
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
202 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid 30s with 
  patchy to area of frost possible. 

- The winds will pick up tonight into Saturday, with a 40-70%
  chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern
  edge of the Sisseton Hills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool 
temperatures across the forecast area with readings in the 40s 
and 50s. These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average for 
this time of year. With the cool atmosphere, temperatures could 
fall quickly upon sunset, with reading in the 30s. Solely based 
the forecast low temperatures, have issued a frost advisory for 
the James River Valley, and a freeze warning further east. While
marginal conditions, will lean on the side of caution for these
headlines. As the surface high shifts southeast of the region, 
the forecast area will see increasing southerly winds, with 
gusts possible exceeding 35 to 45 mph along the higher terrain 
areas. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to be greater 
than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. The 
winds, along with some temperature advection may cause 
temperatures to become steady or slowly rise Saturday morning.

Warmer temperatures will move into the area for the weekend with 
highs reaching the upper 50s and 60s. The upper level flow pattern 
through next week favors above average temperatures and mostly dry 
conditions. A deepening trough along the west coast will cause upper 
level ridging over the Northern Plains through most of the next work 
week. The west coast trough should move across the desert southwest 
and eventually into the area by the end of the work week and through 
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals
through the valid TAF period. Northerly winds with gusts of 15
to 25 knots at KABR and KATY will subside later this afternoon,
before shifting to the southwest tonight. All terminals will see
south-southwesteasterly winds with gusts exceeding 15-20 knots
later tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     SDZ020>023.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     SDZ006>008-011-018-019.
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for 
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...17