FXUS63 KABR 150716 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain lingers over the region this morning, eventually exiting to the south and east by the early afternoon. The highest accumulations, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch, will remain over south central South Dakota. - Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all counties west of Brown and Spink from late this morning through early Friday morning. - Strong winds combined with drier air behind the cold front passing through will push Grassland Fire Danger up into the High to Very High category this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain showers are moving in this morning, and as of ~07Z much of the forecast area has scattered showers overhead. Generally light rainfall rates are expected, and south central South Dakota is still expected to see the highest accumulation totals. There, a tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected, with some locally higher amounts possible. Outside of central South Dakota, only expecting a few hundredths of rainfall in total. These showers will slowly exit the forecast area to the south and east later this morning to perhaps the early afternoon at the latest. Behind a cold front passing through today, winds will turn northwesterly and increase. Latest probability guidance gives a 60- 80% chance to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts up to 45 miles per hour) through the afternoon through the early overnight period along and west of the Missouri River, a number that is likely underdone given known model biases. Strongest gusts are expected to reach up to 55 miles per hour. There is even some minor signal (isolated 10- 20% chance) for some 58+ mile per hour winds, but confidence is not nearly high enough to warrant an upgrade to current headlines. Instead sticking with a Wind Advisory, but have made a few adjustments with this forecast package. First, Buffalo, Hyde, Hand, and Faulk Counties have been added to the Advisory. Secondly, the arrival time of the strong winds will be a bit earlier than previously anticipated, and counties west of the Missouri River now have the Advisory start at 15Z today. All other counties west of Brown and Spink remain at the 18Z start time, and both groups are set to expire at 09Z, a slight extension in time from the previous product issuance. Strong winds will travel eastward and persist through the overnight to early morning hours over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. An additional Wind Advisory may be necessary, but highest gusts are borderline criteria in that area. At this time no Advisory will be issued for that area, but that may change with further forecast updates. Skies over central and north central South Dakota will gradually clear out early Friday morning, while northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are expected to remain under a bit heavier cloud cover. With near-normal temperatures in place through the week, this means that overnight lows will have a chance to drop below freezing, particularly over areas that clear out. Confidence is much lower in the potential for clouded areas to reach below freezing. Without a hard freeze yet this season, Frost and Freeze headlines will still be on the table Friday morning over north central South Dakota. Temperatures may once again dip below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning, and a headline cannot be ruled out there either. However, full humidity recovery is not expected Saturday morning, so frost may struggle to develop. Over the weekend and into next week, an upper-level ridge is set to move overhead. As a result, a warmer airmass will be allowed into the region, pushing 850mb temperatures to 15-20 degrees Celsius over the weekend. These temperatures are above the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will translate to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend (roughly 10-15 degrees above normal). In terms of precipitation, dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward across the region at TAF issuance (06Z) and may bring a couple hour period of 4-6SM VSBY at KABR/KATY. This band will be through KPIR at 06Z and just on the edge of KMBG to where VC (vicinity) will be mentioned. Additional chances for -SHRA through the morning hours on Thursday and will use PROB30 to handle this. CIGs are still MVFR at KABR/KATY with no clear indication on when they will depart. That said, there are signs more so in KABR for brief improvements to VFR later this morning before more MVFR CIGs overspread KABR and the rest of the region tonight. Strong northwest surface winds gusting from 35 to 45 kts will develop from west to east across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...TMT