FXUS63 KABR 150548 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain spreads north and east into the region this evening, mainly staying south of Hwy 12. - Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory has been issued. These winds combined with drier air will also push Grassland Fire Danger into the High category Thursday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Plenty of clouds remain, with light showers or sprinkles over north central SD with another round nearing out south central SD counties. No significant changes are anticipated this evening, with Wind Advisories in place for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures and precipitation over the next two days. Temperatures will, in part, ride on cloud cover, and models have been struggling with the current stratus deck east of the Missouri River. An upper trough/low dips into ND Thursday as almost a cut-off low swings into the central and southern plains. At the sfc, a weak low pressure system moves into the central plains with an H7 low farther north over Nebraska somewhat embedded and stacked in the cut-off trough. This is farther south than previous runs and may keep any rain south of the Hwy 212 corridor but definitely south of Hwy 12. As the sfc low moves in MO on Thursday, drier mid level air pushes in from the northwest across SD on the leading edge of a sfc high. This drier air coupled with the troughing aloft will usher in caa and cause northwest winds to gust 35 to 50 mph across the area in the afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of central and north central SD. For now, have it ending at 5z Friday, but may need a headline farther east for the remainder of the night given the 45 to 50 kt winds at 850mb. The Coteau, at least, could remain very gusty through the early morning hours given the pressure gradient in the east and the 90 kt jet. Given the strength of the winds, unsure how low temps will fall Friday morning as H85 temps fall into the negative single digits. The caa and the winds could cancel each other out, or we may end up needing some freeze headlines. With the winds on Thursday and min RH around 35 to 45 percent across central SD, may also need to consider impact fire headlines where fuels are burnable. Highs pressure builds in on Friday with a ridge transitioning over the Rockies and Plains on Saturday. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected Saturday through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward across the region at TAF issuance (06Z) and may bring a couple hour period of 4-6SM VSBY at KABR/KATY. This band will be through KPIR at 06Z and just on the edge of KMBG to where VC (vicinity) will be mentioned. Additional chances for -SHRA through the morning hours on Thursday and will use PROB30 to handle this. CIGs are still MVFR at KABR/KATY with no clear indication on when they will depart. That said, there are signs more so in KABR for brief improvements to VFR later this morning before more MVFR CIGs overspread KABR and the rest of the region tonight. Strong northwest surface winds gusting from 35 to 45 kts will develop from west to east across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...TMT