FXUS65 KABQ 200735 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 135 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 - A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over southeastern NM this afternoon and early evening. - Strong gusty easterly winds pushing into Santa Fe and ABQ this morning will taper off this morning. - The threat of rapid fire spread from any new spark favored to return to the middle Rio Grande Valley and surrounding highlands this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft with embedded small disturbances and mid to upper level moisture producing broken skies remains aloft over NM this morning. With a stubbornly slow moving upper level trough still over UT/AZ, these southwesterly winds will remain thru western NM thru the short term period. A moist continental airmass that pushed into eastern NM behind yesterday's cold front remains entrenched and has pushed westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing gusty easterly/southeasterly winds into Santa Fe and ABQ. This airmass has shunted the intrusion of a maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf southward into the TX Big Bend region. This is favoring the shallow more stable continental airmass persisting over eastern NM thru much of the today. A blanket of low stratus is beginning to develop along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's on GeoColor satellite imagery this hour and is favored to expand further over eastern NM. Some the soupier Gulf moisture will try to work its way northward however, pushing up the Pecos River Valley into southeastern NM, perhaps further north along the central highlands as well. This is favoring a scenario where higher convective instability existing along the south-central highlands and eastern slopes of the south-central mountains with lesser instability further north and east across eastern NM. Coupled with strong southwesterly vertical wind shear marking 45-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear, this is yielding a marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far the soupier low-level Gulf moisture can intrude northward and how entrenched the low stratus blanket will be thru east-central and northeastern NM, especially given the higher level cloud coverage tonight. Simply put, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms favors southeastern NM, with lower chances as one goes northward towards I-40. Lighter showers mixed with drizzle is favored further north than that toward the CO border. Thursday sees a similar set up as today with higher moisture pushing back west thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley in the morning before retreating toward TX in the afternoon, replaced by drier southwesterly winds advancing from western NM. The aforementioned boundary between the interior moist continental airmass and soupier maritime tropical airmass from the Gulf becomes rather diffuse with southerly winds through far eastern NM. While another round of low clouds with light drizzle is favored over portions of eastern NM Thursday morning, this will quickly burn off with chances for scattered afternoon thunderstorms favoring development along a sharpening dryline. Any thunderstorm activity will track northeastward toward the TX/OK Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Low level moisture across eastern NM will advance back west a few counties deep from TX Thursday night into Friday morning. Thiswill be short-lived before the stalled upper level H5 trough finally treks eastward over CO. This will bring drier westerly flow advancing all the way through the NM/TX line Friday afternoon, shutting down precipitation chances. A cold front will back south and west thru eastern NM Friday night into Saturday morning behind the departing upper level trough. This will return increased low- level moisture to eastern NM once again as a ridge of high pressure begins to develop over the AZ/NM this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor eastern areas Saturday and Sunday with drier conditions along and west of the central mountain chain. Convective outflow will try to push low-level moisture further west by Monday allowing for a brief expansion of thunderstorm activity into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide. Thereafter, an upper level trough over the Great Basin region will bring strengthening dry southwesterly flow into the Desert Southwest. The increase in shear overriding the residual low-level moisture across NM would favor strong to severe thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions punch further east across NM by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A surge of easterly winds are pushing their thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this hour, already having produced strong southeasterly gusts at KSAF >40kts. Based on ABX radar observations, it is currently pushing thru Tijeras Canyon toward KABQ and is expected to surpass 35kts b/w 06Z to 10Z at times when an Airport Weather Warning has been issued for. Otherwise, the main aviation impacts look to be the development of IFR/MVFR ceilings or even isolated LIFR ceilings across eastern NM tonight and thru Wednesday morning. There is considerable uncertainty with how persistent these lower ceilings will be through the day Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also likely over portions of NM, notably southeastern NM Wednesday afternoon, but to what degree, coverage, and intensity is highly uncertain. TAF AMDs will likely be necessary for KROW because of this uncertainty, and will be dictated by when low ceilings clear or not clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Elevated fire weather with breezy dry southwesterly winds over western NM with higher moisture and excellent recoveries alongside southeasterly winds over eastern NM remains today and Thursday. The Rio Grande Valley will see higher moisture push in thru the gaps of the central mountain chain this morning and tonight, mixed out by dry southwesterlies in the afternoon. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor eastern NM as well, with the strongest thunderstorms favoring southeastern portions of the area. Drier westerlies advance eastward toward TX Friday afternoon, replaced by another cold front from CO thru eastern NM bringing a return of low-level moisture and good to excellent recoveries Saturday. Daily rounds of slower moving afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along the central mountain chain Saturday and Sunday with gusty outflow winds pushing moisture westward into the Rio Grande Valley and Continental Divide Monday. Thus Monday is favored to see the most westward coverage of afternoon thunderstorm activity. Wetting footprints will be relatively small until Tuesday when faster storm motions will be favored. Drier southwesterlies advance back thru western and central NM Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 31 75 32 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 40 75 40 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 35 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 40 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 40 80 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 33 69 33 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 49 73 48 / 20 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 70 43 74 40 / 30 40 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 41 70 41 / 20 0 5 0 Red River....................... 59 34 61 34 / 20 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 66 29 / 30 10 20 0 Taos............................ 74 37 74 35 / 20 5 10 0 Mora............................ 66 42 70 39 / 30 50 30 0 Espanola........................ 80 45 81 43 / 20 5 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 48 75 47 / 20 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 45 78 44 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 54 82 54 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 50 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 46 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 80 53 80 52 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 48 76 48 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 48 77 48 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 44 78 44 / 10 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 40 79 40 / 10 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 69 44 74 44 / 30 20 10 0 Mountainair..................... 79 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 50 73 51 / 10 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 58 40 66 39 / 20 60 60 30 Raton........................... 64 42 70 40 / 40 50 60 20 Springer........................ 65 43 72 40 / 30 50 60 10 Las Vegas....................... 63 45 72 42 / 30 50 20 5 Clayton......................... 61 47 71 47 / 30 60 60 50 Roy............................. 60 45 71 44 / 40 50 50 10 Conchas......................... 68 48 80 48 / 60 50 40 10 Santa Rosa...................... 68 47 77 46 / 60 50 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 70 50 80 50 / 60 40 50 20 Clovis.......................... 69 51 80 52 / 50 20 30 5 Portales........................ 70 50 81 51 / 50 20 30 5 Fort Sumner..................... 73 50 82 49 / 60 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 80 55 86 55 / 40 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 78 50 82 52 / 40 10 20 0 Elk............................. 81 49 82 50 / 20 5 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24