FOCN45 CWWG 161200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT FRIDAY OCTOBER
16 2026.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...WIND WARNING FOR ULUKHAKTOK, CHESTERFIELD INLET
AND NAUJAAT. SNOWFALL WARNING FOR FORT MCPHERSON.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...THE 00Z UPPER ANALYSES REVEALED A BIG RIDGE OVER
BC, ALBERTA AND THE NWT, WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
ANOTHER OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO, WHICH EMANATES FROM A LOW NEAR
FOXE BASIN.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND,
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TO
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TODAY, THOUGH SOME STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST IN SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL ACROSS THE PROVINCE.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN PRAIRIES. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 KM/H IN ITS WAKE TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CROSS-BARRIER FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL ALSO RAMP UP WINDS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO
90 KM/H FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL ALSO SPILL
MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE MOUNTAIN PARKS.
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, UP TO 10 CM OF SNOW
IS FORECAST OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ICEFIELDS PARKWAY ON
SATURDAY.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...A QUIET FEW DAYS ARE ON TAP.

NT...A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE YUKON WILL SPAWN A LEE LOW OVER THE
SAHTU REGION TODAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE
MACKENZIE DELTA, WHERE A SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF FORT
MCPHERSON AND TSIIGEHTCHIC WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. HOWEVER, 20-30MM OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT SHOULD STILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF HEAVY WET SNOW
TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DEMPSTER HIGHWAY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORT
MCPHERSON. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AMOUNTS APPROACHING 15CM/24
HOURS FURTHER NORTH IN AKLAVIK AND INUVIK AS WELL AS ACCUMULATING
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY TO THE SOUTH OF TUKTOYAKTUK, BUT THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT HERE, AS WELL AS THE SAME DILEMMA OF NEAR-ZERO
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE DEVELOPING LOW RUNS INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ARCTIC,
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ULUKHAKTOK TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. A WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT HERE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, THOUGH RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-EXISTING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW WITH THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COMMUNITY.

NUNAVUT...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE
HUDSON BAY COAST, A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BROUGHT WARNING-LEVEL
WINDS TO CHESTERFIELD INLET OVERNIGHT, AND WINDS ARE NEAR WARNING
LEVELS AT NAUJAAT. WINDS WILL ABATE LATER TODAY.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS QIKIQTARJUAQ: THE SOUTHERN BAFFIN LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT SOMEWHAT, BRINGING A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO PARTS OF
EASTERN BAFFIN ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS A TRICKY SETUP,
AS SIMILAR SETUPS CAN ALTERNATIVELY BRING HEAVY SNOW OR ALMOST NO
SNOW AT ALL TO THE COMMUNITY. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THEY ALSO HAVE MISSED THE TEMPERATURES BY A
DEGREE AT THIS TIME--NOT MUCH, BUT ENOUGH WHEN IT MAKES THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES (SUCH AS THE
OBSERVATIONS ALLOW) DON'T SHOW ANY ADVECTIVE COOLING THROUGH THE DAY.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY CAUSE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND THUS
CHANGE THINGS OVER TO SNOW, BUT EVEN THIS IS LIKELY TO BE VERY WET
SNOW. THAT SAID, WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND ISSUE A
WARNING SHOULD IT BE WARRANTED.

THE MACKENZIE LOW WILL ALSO PUSH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW INTO THE
WESTERN KITIKMEOT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. KUGLUKTUK WILL GET INTO THE
SNOW STARTING TONIGHT BUT WITH WINDS OFF THE OPEN WATER OF CORONATION
GULF, ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MORE DUE TO FALLING SNOW
THAN BLOWING SNOW. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR CAMBRIDGE BAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 70 KM/H BUT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COMMUNITY
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

END/CARLSEN/STAUNTON