106 WTPA43 PHFO 201455 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 The system that NHC has been monitoring (invest 90E) over the central Pacific now has developed a sufficient amount of convective organization that has been steadily increasing over the last several hours. In addition, the low-level circulation has been getting better defined, as evident in satellite data, therefore the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT pass from last night shows that the circulation is located near the eastern edge of the convection and generally supports an initial intensity of about 30 kt. The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt, and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, should monitor the progress of this system. The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 60 kt this weekend, with gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 11.9N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi  046 WTPA43 PHFO 202039 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite data. The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance will investigate the cyclone tomorrow. The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in the way of change. The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi  585 WTPA43 PHFO 210236 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with Tropical Depression Two-C has weakened slightly during the past several hours, with most of the deep convection positioned over the western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO remain T2.0/30 kt and are generally consistent with the objective intensity estimates. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday. The initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast reflects a blend of the previous forecast, ECMWF, and the GFS solutions, and generally lies near the northern side of the guidance envelope. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and within an adequately moist environment while vertical wind shear remains relatively weak. These conditions should support steady intensification as the system approaches the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond about 72 h, increasing shear and a progressively drier surrounding environment should induce a weakening trend by early next week as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm this weekend, followed by gradual weakening, and remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands by Friday and residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 12.9N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans  562 WTPA43 PHFO 210844 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated with Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past several hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north of the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation, combined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday. The initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within a moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next week due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Evans/Gibbs  928 WTPA43 PHFO 211459 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Satellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands associated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt, which correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later today, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Two-C. The depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9 kt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more westward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the Central Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one, and a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely strengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain generally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light, southwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle, significantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will help counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model intensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual weakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing vertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the Big Island. 3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for portions of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi  220 WTPA43 PHFO 212037 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression has strengthened. Dropsonde data suggest that the minimum pressure is around 1002 mb and the flight-level wind information supports an initial wind speed of about 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Moke. Moke is gradually becoming better organized in satellite images, with curved bands showing improved structure north of the center. There has not been any significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen to the north of the storm during the next few days, and that should cause Moke to move a little faster to the west-northwest. This motion should cause the core of system to pass to the south of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. Since Moke is also forecast to be a compact storm, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required based on the current predictions. However, the storm will very likely be close enough to produce some wind, rain, and surf impacts, see the Key Messages below for details. The NHC track forecast is again largely an update of the previous one, and remains on the north side of the guidance envelope. Moke has another day or so to strengthen while it remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. However, most of the models show the storm entraining dry air while it moves into a region of higher shear late this weekend and early next week. Those environmental conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken beginning in about 36 hours, and it could even dissipate toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Based on the environmental conditions and model spread, there remains high confidence that Moke will stay below hurricane strength. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the Big Island. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for portions of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi  946 WTPA43 PHFO 220233 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 7 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Moke has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to impart a slight northward tilt to the vortex, as indicated by Tail Doppler Radar data, with most of the deep convection displaced north of the low-level circulation center. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an initial intensity of 40 kt and a minimum central pressure of 999 mb. Based on these observations and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moke is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few days, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the core of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into early next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory. Given the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature of the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings for the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the enhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture associated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain, will likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by antecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas where soils remain saturated. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Moke remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. Thereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become increasingly entrained into the circulation while vertical wind shear increases late this weekend into early next week. These factors should cause Moke to gradually weaken as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.0N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.5N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 17.0N 161.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.2N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.6N 171.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  095 WTPA43 PHFO 220848 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 8 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the deepest convection north of the low-level circulation center, where convection has expanded in coverage and cloud-top temperatures have cooled to around -85 C over the past several hours. Despite the recent increase in convection, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate little change in intensity, with a central pressure of 999 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moke is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few days, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the core of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into early next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory. Given the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature of the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings for the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the enhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture associated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain, will likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by antecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas where soils remain saturated. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so despite the moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Moke. Thereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become increasingly entrained into the circulation while vertical wind shear remains unfavorable late this weekend into early next week. These factors should cause Moke to gradually weaken as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.4N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.0N 150.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.4N 152.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 15.8N 155.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.4N 157.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.2N 162.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.2N 167.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.2N 172.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs  219 WTPA43 PHFO 221433 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke is gaining some strength this morning with deep convection increasing in intensity and extent. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have departed the storm, but during their last pass through the center they measured a minimum pressure of 994 mb and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 53 kt. These data support increasing the initial wind speed to 45 kt for this advisory. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with the latest JTWC Dvorak classification and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The aircraft data and last night's ASCAT pass also showed that the tropical-storm-force wind radii are a little larger on the north side of the system while the radius of maximum wind has contracted. Nonetheless, Moke remains a compact tropical storm. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system again later today. The tropical storm is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 290/10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke roughly a couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island late tonight and early Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that. Since Moke is expected to remain compact, and because there is high confidence in the short term track forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings appear to be necessary for Hawaii. However, the storm is expected to be close enough to produce gusty winds in portions of the Hawaiian Islands, especially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of the associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are forecast there during the next few days. Moke will likely strengthen a little more today while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the combination of dry air entrainment and an increase in vertical wind shear should cause the storm to gradually lose strength beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. The intensity models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. In fact, most of the models show Moke dissipating toward the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through early next week for exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.8N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.4N 173.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi  835 WTPA43 PHFO 222038 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 10 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke has been generally steady state throughout the morning. The storm is producing a concentrated area of deep convection near the center and on its north side, and microwave images show that banding features are fairly well organized over the northern half of the system. However, banding features remain quite limited south of the center, and total precipitable water imagery shows dry air beginning to wrap into that portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the storm, and so far have found winds to support maintaining the initial intensity at 45 kt. This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite estimates. The tropical storm continues to move to the west-northwest at about 10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke roughly a couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that. Since Moke is expected to remain compact, and because there is high confidence in the short term track forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings appear to be necessary for Hawaii. However, the storm is expected to be close enough to produce gusty winds in portions of the Hawaiian Islands, especially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of the associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are forecast there during the next few days. Moke will likely reach its peak intensity soon, if it has not already. The continued entrainment of stable air and an increase in shear should cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday, with that trend continuing into next week. The intensity models are in good agreement, and this forecast is fairly similar to the previous one. Dissipation is now predicted by day 5, in agreement with most of the physics-based and AI models that show Moke opening up into a trough by then. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by the storm could produce elevated surf near exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands through early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.9N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.3N 152.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 15.6N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 157.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 165.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi  112 WTPA43 PHFO 230239 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 11 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke has weakened slightly during the past several hours. The persistent deep convection that had been located over and north of the circulation overnight and through the morning hours has largely collapsed, with cloud tops warming noticeably. This deterioration appears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds from the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 43 kt, while a UAS measured peak winds of about 38 kt while sampling near the surface in the northeast quadrant. These data, along with the deteriorating satellite presentation, support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 280/12 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Moke appears to be near its peak intensity, if it has not already reached it. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should limit additional strengthening and likely cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should result in a gradual weakening trend through early next week. By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.3N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs  529 WTPA43 PHFO 230843 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke's overall organization has changed little during the past several hours. Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have eroded much of the convection that was present earlier, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Convective coverage remains limited, aside from occasional bursts of deep convection near and north of the center. Recent satellite-derived wind data showed peak winds of around 40 kt north of the circulation, while recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in the northeastern quadrant. These data, along with the overall satellite presentation, support maintaining the initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory. Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 280/10 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Moke has likely peaked in intensity over the past 24 h. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should limit any chances for additional strengthening and likely cause Moke to begin a steady weakening trend on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should cause Moke to weaken further through early next week. By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.2N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.8N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.3N 160.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 17.6N 165.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.1N 173.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs  154 WTPA43 PHFO 231444 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Moke continues to pulse some convection in the northern semicircle, though much of the southern portion of the storm is exposed due to persistent shear. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt given little change in the overall organization of the cyclone during the past several hours. This is also in agreement with earlier aircraft data and close to recent Dvorak estimates. The storm is expected to move through a challenging environment during the next several days, with plentiful mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path. These conditions will likely beat out the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke should struggle to produce sustained deep convection in this regime. Shear is forecast to increase in 2-3 days, and the storm is expected to weaken into a tropical depression or remnant low around that time. The new forecast is a bit lower than the last one late in the period and shows an earlier transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It should be mentioned that more models are now showing the system opening up into a trough of low pressure even earlier than shown below due to the harsh environment and Moke's forward speed. Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt, wobbling a bit as convective bursts briefly pull the system north of due west. A general west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island today and then well south of the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The model guidance is a bit south of the last forecast, and the NHC track is moved in that direction. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.2N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake  859 WTPA43 PHFO 232032 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of thunderstorm activity continues in the northern semicircle of Moke, though the southern side of the system remains mostly exposed. Visible satellite imagery indicates the center is on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, reflective of the southerly shear. While Dvorak intensity estimates have recently increased, recent scatterometer data is actually lower than earlier, showing only a small area of winds above 30 kt. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt assuming some undersampling knowing the bias of that instrument. Moke should move through a tough environment during the next several days, with lots of mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path. These conditions should suppress the influences of the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke will likely only produce temporary bursts of deep convection early this week. Shear is still forecast to increase in a day or two, and the storm is expected to weaken into a tropical depression and/or remnant low around that time. The model trend of an earlier dissipation continues, so the time of tropical depression and remnant low status has been moved up 12-24 h, with a faster weakening than the last advisory. Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Similar to the last forecast, the model guidance has shifted a bit to the south, and the NHC track is moved in that direction. Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke is gradually increasing over the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.2N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake  225 WTPA43 PHFO 240233 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 15 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Convection associated with Moke has decreased significantly during the past several hours. The cyclone is now comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, with the remaining convection now located just south of the Island of Hawaii well to the northeast of the center. Just-received OSCAT data shows maximum winds of 25 to maybe 30 kt, and based on this Moke is being downgraded to a tropical depression. A combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment should continue to inhibit Moke's ability to develop convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to keep weakening, with the system likely to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h at the latest and to a trough by 72 h. The intensity forecast follows this, and it is possible that Moke will dissipate faster than currently forecast if significant convection does not re-develop. The initial motion is 275/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone generally westward for the remainder of its life, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. The guidance again nudged southward, and the new forecast track is a little south of the previous track. Despite this nudge and the weakening of the cyclone, Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 157.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven  960 WTPA43 PHFO 240850 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Proxy-visible satellite images of Moke show the low-level center remains exposed tonight. The depression has only produced small, intermittent bursts of convection over the northern part of its circulation during the past several hours. Although Moke is centered well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, NWS radar data and surface observations indicate that heavy rain and gusty winds are spreading across portions of the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui. Based on earlier scatterometer data and given no recent improvements to the satellite presentation of Moke, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving westward (275/11 kt) and should continue on this heading for the next couple of days while being steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge to its north. No notable changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which keeps the center of Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Regardless, periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across portions of the islands overnight through Monday. Moke may not remain a tropical cyclone for much longer if it is unable to generate more organized convection soon. Persistent southwesterly shear and the drier surrounding mid-level environment suggest this is unlikely to occur. Based on recent satellite trends and the latest global model wind fields and simulated satellite images, the updated NHC forecast now shows Moke becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h and dissipating by 48 h. Note that this could occur even sooner than forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Strong, gusty winds are likely as Moke passes south of the main Hawaiian Islands, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.6N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 165.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart