547 FOUS62 KALR 150028 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 826 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20261015 Z DH00/DC202610150026 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ002 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ003 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ004 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ005 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ006 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ007 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ008 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ009 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ010 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ011 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ012 1.7/ 2.8/ 4.0 PRZ013 1.7/ 2.8/ 4.0 VIZ001 1.7/ 2.9/ 4.2 VIZ002 1.8/ 3.0/ 4.3 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  547 FOUS62 KALR 150028 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 826 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20261015 Z DH00/DC202610150026 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ002 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ003 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ004 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.8 PRZ005 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ006 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ007 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ008 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ009 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ010 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ011 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.3 PRZ012 1.7/ 2.8/ 4.0 PRZ013 1.7/ 2.8/ 4.0 VIZ001 1.7/ 2.9/ 4.2 VIZ002 1.8/ 3.0/ 4.3 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  319 FGUS74 KORN 150105 FFHMRX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....MORRISTOWN TN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....TENNESSEE : DOET1 2.9/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 5.3/ 6.5 :ELIZABETHTON, TN DOE R. RMTT1 3.1/ 3.7/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.5 :ROAN MOUNTAIN, TN DOE R. : :.....VIRGINIA : CLVV2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.1 :CLEVELAND, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  315 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHFFC HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ATLANTA GA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....GEORGIA : ENGG1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2 :NEW ENGLAND, GA LOOKOUT CREEK HWEG1 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.3 :HIAWASSEE, GA HIAWASSEE R. .END $$  316 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHSHV HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....SHREVEPORT LA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....LOUISIANA : KEIL1 3.5/ 4.3/ 4.9 :KEITHVILLE, LA CYPRESS BAYOU .END $$  317 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHLSX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ST. LOUIS MO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSOURI : ANNM7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :ANNAPOLIS, MO BLACK R. .END $$  318 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHHUN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....HUNTSVILLE AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ALABAMA : FRYA1 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.0 :FARLEY, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK SHEA1 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7 :SHERWOOD, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK ATNA1 3.5/ 4.5/ 5.3 :ATHENS, AL LIMESTONE CREEK BPPA1 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.8 :BUCKS POCKET, AL S. SAUTY CREEK MADA1 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.9 :MADISON, AL INDIAN CREEK .END $$  321 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHRNK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....BLACKSBURG VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....VIRGINIA : SALV2 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.5 :SALTVILLE, VA N.F. HOLSTON R. SGWN7 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.6/ 2.1/ 3.0 :SUGAR GROVE, NC WATAUGA R. SMFV2 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.0 :SEVEN MILE FORD, VA M.F. HOLSTON R. RLRV2 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.6/ 2.1/ 3.0 :RICHLANDS, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  322 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHGSP HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....NORTH CAROLINA : ROSN7 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 5.8/ 6.5 :ROSMAN, NC FRENCH BROAD R. BLTN7 2.7/ 3.6/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BILTMORE, NC SWANNANOAH R. BIRN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BIRDTOWN, NC OCONALUFTEE R. .END $$  323 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHJAN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSISSIPPI : MEIM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :MERIDIAN, MS SOWASHEE CREEK JCCM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS CANY CREEK JHMM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS HANGING MOSS CREEK LYNM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS LYNCH CREEK TOWM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS TOWN CREEK UBCM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS EUBANKS CREEK .END $$  325 FOUS74 KORN 150105 FFHLZK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....LITTLE ROCK AR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 800 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH00/DC2610150100 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ARKANSAS : BTNA4 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :BENTON, AR SALINE R. CIGA4 2.8/ 3.4/ 3.9 :CLINTON, AR S. FK LZKTLE RED R. HDYA4 3.3/ 4.6/ 5.5 :HARDY, AR SPRING R. .END $$  962 AWUS01 KWNH 150316 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150914- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1496 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Areas affected...Central OK...West TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 150314Z - 150914Z Summary...Training thunderstorms containing peak hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2 in/hr will continue tonight. Widely scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are expected. Discussion...Radar mosaic this evening depicts an MCS exhibiting a line echo wave pattern (LEWP), which is moving eastward across portions of central OK and northern TX. Upwind of the LEWP, training thunderstorms are expanding in coverage near a stationary segment of the cold pool over west-central TX. As highlighted in MPD 1495, this complex is embedded in a favorable environment for efficient heavy rainfall production, with low level contributions from the western Gulf and mid-level contributions from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. Recent mesoanalysis data suggests PWs near the complex range from 1.7-2.0", with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Over the next 6 hours, the main axis of training will focus along the cold pool as the low-level jet strengthens and Corfidi vectors align favorably with the low level boundary. Strong thermodynamic advection will result in PWs exceeding 2" and MUCAPE values in the 2000 J/kg range as the low-level jet strengthens, supporting hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times in the most intense cells. Through 9z, CAM guidance unanimously highlights the potential for an additional 2-4" in the highlighted area. Owing to the previous 24 hours of heavy rainfall (upwards of 4-10" west of the OKC metro), this will maintain the threat of widely scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. Flash flooding is considered likely, and considerable to significant flash flooding impacts remain possible over urban zones or areas inundated from yesterday's rainfall. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37139589 35859551 33349841 31030072 29520265 29810375 31290348 33610185 35190014 36519831  561 FOUS62 KALR 151317 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 914 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20261015 Z DH12/DC202610151314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ002 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ003 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ004 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ005 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ006 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ007 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ008 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ009 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ010 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ011 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ012 1.4/ 2.5/ 3.7 PRZ013 1.4/ 2.5/ 3.8 VIZ001 1.6/ 2.8/ 4.1 VIZ002 1.8/ 3.0/ 4.3 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  153 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHILX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : BMII2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BLOOMINGTON IL SUGAR CR RLLI2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7 :ROWELL IL SALT CR .END $$  154 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHMKX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 MILWAUKEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : AFTW3 1.9/ 2.3/ 2.6 :AFTON WI ROCK R BCHW3 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.0 :BLANCHARDVILLE WI E BR PECATONICA R BUNW3 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9 :BUNCOMBE WI GALENA R DARW3 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.3 :DARLINGTON WI PECATONICA R MTNW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.9 :MARTINTOWN WI PECATONICA R MAZW3 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9 :MAZOMANIE WI BLACK EARTH CR KINW3 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.2 :MILWAUKEE WI KINNICKINNIC R SEBW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8 :SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN R WKEW3 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4 :WAUKESHA WI FOX R WWTW3 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8 :WAUWATOSA WI MENOMONEE R BLOW3 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :BELOIT WI TURTLE CR MFSW3 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :MENOMONEE FALLS WI MENOMONEE R OAKW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :SOUTH MILWAUKEE OAK CR .END $$  160 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHLOT HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : NBPI2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.8 :CHICAGO IL N BR CHICAGO R CDCI2 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.4 :CHICAGO HEIGHTS IL DEER CR DRFI2 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.8 :DEERFIELD IL N BR CHICAGO R DEKI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DE KALB IL S BR KISHWAUKEE R DSPI2 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.3 :DES PLAINES IL DES PLAINES R WLRI2 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :DES PLAINES IL WELLER CR EMHI2 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.3 :ELMHURST IL SALT CR FLSI2 0.9/ 1.1/ 1.4 :FLOSSMOOR IL BUTTERFIELD CR GLWI2 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.3 :GLENWOOD IL THORN CR GUNI2 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0 :GURNEE IL DES PLAINES R JHCI2 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.6 :JOLIET IL HICKORY CR LAFI2 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.8 :LAKE FOREST IL SKOKIE R NILI2 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NILES IL N BR CHICAGO R NBRI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NORTHBROOK IL W FK N BR CHICAGO R OAKI2 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.8 :OAK FOREST IL MIDLOTHIAN CR MCDI2 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.7 :PROSPECT HTS IL MCDONALD CR ALPI2 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0 :ROCKFORD IL ALPINE DAM-KEITH CR LEVI2 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.7 :ROCKFORD IL LEVINGS LAKE PPLI2 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.9 :ROCKFORD IL PAGE PARK LAKE ROLI2 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.5 :ROLLING MEADOWS IL SALT CR SCHI2 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.2 :ST CHARLES IL FERSON CR SORI2 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.1 :SHOREWOOD IL DU PAGE R THNI2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :THORNTON IL THORN CR WHEI2 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9 :WHEELING IL BUFFALO CR WLSI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WILLOW SPRINGS IL FLAG CR YRKI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7 :YORKVILLE IL BLACKBERRY CR : : *** INDIANA HEADWATER POINTS *** : HDDI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DYER IN HART DITCH MNTI3 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.1 :MUNSTER IN HART DITCH LCMI3 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8 :MUNSTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R PRTI3 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :PORTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R .END $$  163 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHARX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 LA CROSSE HYDRLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DEHI4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.4 :DECORAH IA UPPER IOWA R DCHI4 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.1 :DORCHESTER IA UPPER IOWA R GRBI4 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :GARBER IA TURKEY R : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : ASTM5 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8 :AUSTIN WWTP MN CEDAR R DOBM5 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :AUSTIN MN-21ST DOBBINS CR TRCM5 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.8 :AUSTIN MN-41 AV NW TURTLE CR HOUM5 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :HOUSTON MN ROOT R LNSM5 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.7 :LANESBORO MN S BR ROOT R LANM5 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0 :LANSING MN CEDAR R PTNM5 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.8 :PRESTON MN S BR ROOT R RBCM5 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.3 :ROCHESTER MN BEAR CR RCCM5 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.9 :ROCHESTER MN CASCADE CR ROCM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :ROCHESTER MN SILVER CR RCSM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :HWY 14 ROCHESTER S FK ZUMBRO R RCHM5 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.1 :ROCHESTER MN S FK ZUMBRO R WSPM5 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.8 :WHITEWATER ST.PK MFK WHITEWATER R ZUMM5 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.5 :ZUMBRO FALLS MN ZUMBRO R : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BTNW3 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.2 :BURTON WI GRANT R DDGW3 3.5/ 3.7/ 3.8 :DODGE WI TREMPEALEAU R GMIW3 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.3 :GAYS MILLS WI KICKAPOO R HILW3 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :HILLSBORO WWTP WI S BR BARABOO R LAFW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :LA FARGE WI KICKAPOO R NEIW3 3.0/ 3.7/ 4.5 :NEILLSVILLE WI BLACK R ONTW3 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4 :ONTARIO WI KICKAPOO R REAW3 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.0 :READSTOWN WI KICKAPOO R RVLW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :ROCKVILLE WI 2E PLATTE R SOGW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8 :SOLDIERS GROVE WI KICKAPOO R STEW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7 :STEUBEN WI KICKAPOO R VIOW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9 :VIOLA WI KICKAPOO R .END $$  168 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHLSX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 ST LOUIS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MISSOURI HEADWATER POINTS *** : EWNM7 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.1 :EWING MO 5E NORTH FABIUS R EWMM7 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.4 :EWING MO 1NNE MIDDLE FABIUS R PALM7 1.3/ 1.5/ 1.7 :PALMYRA MO NORTH R TAYM7 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.5 :TAYLOR MO S FABIUS R PMZM7 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :HOLLIDAY MO 2N MI FK SALT R TRYM7 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.4 :TROY MO CUIVRE R DRCM7 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.9 :ST PETERS MO DARDENNE CR LSLM7 1.5/ 1.8/ 2.1 :LAKE SAINT LOUIS PERUQUE CR - ABOVE LSTM7 1.1/ 1.3/ 1.6 :LAKE ST LOUIS MO PERUQUE CR CSNM7 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4 :COOK STATION MO 1N MERAMEC R SEEM7 1.2/ 1.7/ 2.5 :STEELVILLE MO 2N MERAMEC R UNNM7 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.2 :UNION MO BOURBEUSE R BYRM7 2.8/ 3.4/ 4.1 :BYRNESVILLE MO 2NNE BIG R .END $$  176 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHAPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 GAYLORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MICHIGAN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BVTM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BEAVERTON MI TOBACCO R MYFM4 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5 :MAYFIELD MI BOARDMAN R RUDM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :RUDYARD MI PINE RIVER .END $$  178 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHMPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 TWIN CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : SNCM5 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5 :JORDAN MN SAND CR PNLM5 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN MID FK ZUMBRO R PILM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN N B MID FK ZUMBRO R WGOM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WANAMINGO MN NO FK ZUMBRO R .END $$  184 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHFGF HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : CSRM5 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.0 :CAMPBELL MN 1W SO FK RABBIT R MALM5 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.2 :MALUNG MN 2NW ROSEAU R BLO SO FK : : *** NORTH DAKOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DWGN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DWIGHT ND 1NE ANTELOPE CR HGRN8 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.2 :HILLSBORO ND GOOSE R LTRN8 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2 :LARIMORE ND 5ENE TURTLE R .END $$  188 FOUS73 KMSR 151400 FFHDMX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : AKWI4 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.1 :ACKWORTH IA SOUTH R AMWI4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6 :AMES IA IOWAY CR BSSI4 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9 :BUSSEY IA CEDAR CR DFMI4 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.0 :DSM-EASTON FOUR MILE CR CLVI4 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9 :CLIVE I-80/35 WALNUT CR DOSI4 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.1 :DSM-63RD ST WALNUT CR MCWI4 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.5 :MASON CITY IA WINNEBAGO R .END $$  068 FGUS74 KORN 151505 FFHMRX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....MORRISTOWN TN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....TENNESSEE : DOET1 2.9/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 5.3/ 6.5 :ELIZABETHTON, TN DOE R. RMTT1 3.1/ 3.7/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.5 :ROAN MOUNTAIN, TN DOE R. : :.....VIRGINIA : CLVV2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.1 :CLEVELAND, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  065 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHHUN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....HUNTSVILLE AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ALABAMA : FRYA1 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.0 :FARLEY, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK SHEA1 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7 :SHERWOOD, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK ATNA1 3.5/ 4.5/ 5.3 :ATHENS, AL LIMESTONE CREEK BPPA1 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.8 :BUCKS POCKET, AL S. SAUTY CREEK MADA1 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.9 :MADISON, AL INDIAN CREEK .END $$  066 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHGSP HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....NORTH CAROLINA : ROSN7 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 5.8/ 6.5 :ROSMAN, NC FRENCH BROAD R. BLTN7 2.7/ 3.6/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BILTMORE, NC SWANNANOAH R. BIRN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BIRDTOWN, NC OCONALUFTEE R. .END $$  069 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHRNK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....BLACKSBURG VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....VIRGINIA : SALV2 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.5 :SALTVILLE, VA N.F. HOLSTON R. SGWN7 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.6/ 2.1/ 3.0 :SUGAR GROVE, NC WATAUGA R. SMFV2 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.0 :SEVEN MILE FORD, VA M.F. HOLSTON R. RLRV2 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.6/ 2.1/ 3.0 :RICHLANDS, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  072 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHSHV HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....SHREVEPORT LA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....LOUISIANA : KEIL1 3.5/ 4.3/ 4.9 :KEITHVILLE, LA CYPRESS BAYOU .END $$  073 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHJAN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSISSIPPI : MEIM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :MERIDIAN, MS SOWASHEE CREEK JCCM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS CANY CREEK JHMM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS HANGING MOSS CREEK LYNM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS LYNCH CREEK TOWM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS TOWN CREEK UBCM6 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :JACKSON, MS EUBANKS CREEK .END $$  074 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHLZK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....LITTLE ROCK AR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ARKANSAS : BTNA4 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :BENTON, AR SALINE R. CIGA4 2.8/ 3.4/ 3.9 :CLINTON, AR S. FK LZKTLE RED R. HDYA4 3.3/ 4.6/ 5.5 :HARDY, AR SPRING R. .END $$  075 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHFFC HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ATLANTA GA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....GEORGIA : ENGG1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2 :NEW ENGLAND, GA LOOKOUT CREEK HWEG1 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.3 :HIAWASSEE, GA HIAWASSEE R. .END $$  076 FOUS74 KORN 151505 FFHLSX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ST. LOUIS MO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 1002 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 261015 Z DH12/DC2610151502 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSOURI : ANNM7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5 :ANNAPOLIS, MO BLACK R. .END $$  436 AWUS01 KWNH 151642 FFGMPD VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1499 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1241 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...eastern KY into WV Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151640Z - 152230Z Summary...Isolated flash flooding may occur across eastern KY into WV through late afternoon from training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. Areal coverage of any higher rain rates/impacts is expected to remain limited however. Discussion...A small region of showers was observed on local radar imagery over eastern KY at 1615Z, tracking toward the east at about 20 kt. There has been a history of embedded training of heavy rain within the area of showers containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches over the eastern third of KY since 12Z. According to 16Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis, eastern KY contained ~2 inches of precipitable water and MLCAPE of 100-500 J/kg. A quasi-stationary front extended west to east from north-central KY into southern WV and a weak rain-cooled outflow boundary was becoming more apparent just south of the recent rainfall in KY. There will continue to be an isolated threat for 1-2 inch hourly rainfall with the area of showers as it tracks into central/southern WV over the next 1 to 2 hours, but potential for additional shower/thunderstorm development will occur later this afternoon into the early evening back to the west. RAP forecast guidance shows MLCAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg for WV and near 1000 J/kg into eastern KY. In addition, 925-850 mb winds of 15-25 kt are forecast over KY into WV with an overrunning component of the outflow and frontal boundary which may support a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms after 19Z. Mean westerly steering flow could promote training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches within the moist environment. Isolated flash flooding may result across the sensitive terrain of the Cumberland Plateau into the central Appalachians. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 39328025 39047940 38447928 37907960 37438029 37018207 36778405 37058460 37368468 37728464 38098447 38308409 38488296 38758227 39198118  874 FOUS62 KALR 151857 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 257 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20261015 Z DH18/DC202610151857 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ002 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ003 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ004 1.0/ 2.0/ 2.9 PRZ005 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ006 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ007 1.3/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ008 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ009 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ010 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ011 1.2/ 1.8/ 2.2 PRZ012 1.4/ 2.5/ 3.7 PRZ013 1.4/ 2.5/ 3.8 VIZ001 1.6/ 2.8/ 4.1 VIZ002 1.8/ 3.0/ 4.3 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  663 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHMPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 TWIN CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : SNCM5 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.3 :JORDAN MN SAND CR PNLM5 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN MID FK ZUMBRO R PILM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN N B MID FK ZUMBRO R WGOM5 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.1 :WANAMINGO MN NO FK ZUMBRO R .END $$  679 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHLOT HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : NBPI2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.8 :CHICAGO IL N BR CHICAGO R CDCI2 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.4 :CHICAGO HEIGHTS IL DEER CR DRFI2 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.7 :DEERFIELD IL N BR CHICAGO R DEKI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DE KALB IL S BR KISHWAUKEE R DSPI2 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :DES PLAINES IL DES PLAINES R WLRI2 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :DES PLAINES IL WELLER CR EMHI2 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.2 :ELMHURST IL SALT CR FLSI2 0.7/ 1.0/ 1.2 :FLOSSMOOR IL BUTTERFIELD CR GLWI2 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.2 :GLENWOOD IL THORN CR GUNI2 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9 :GURNEE IL DES PLAINES R JHCI2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.6 :JOLIET IL HICKORY CR LAFI2 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.7 :LAKE FOREST IL SKOKIE R NILI2 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NILES IL N BR CHICAGO R NBRI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NORTHBROOK IL W FK N BR CHICAGO R OAKI2 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.8 :OAK FOREST IL MIDLOTHIAN CR MCDI2 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.6 :PROSPECT HTS IL MCDONALD CR ALPI2 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :ROCKFORD IL ALPINE DAM-KEITH CR LEVI2 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6 :ROCKFORD IL LEVINGS LAKE PPLI2 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.8 :ROCKFORD IL PAGE PARK LAKE ROLI2 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.4 :ROLLING MEADOWS IL SALT CR SCHI2 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.1 :ST CHARLES IL FERSON CR SORI2 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.0 :SHOREWOOD IL DU PAGE R THNI2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 :THORNTON IL THORN CR WHEI2 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.8 :WHEELING IL BUFFALO CR WLSI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WILLOW SPRINGS IL FLAG CR YRKI2 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6 :YORKVILLE IL BLACKBERRY CR : : *** INDIANA HEADWATER POINTS *** : HDDI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DYER IN HART DITCH MNTI3 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.0 :MUNSTER IN HART DITCH LCMI3 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7 :MUNSTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R PRTI3 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :PORTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R .END $$  680 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHLSX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 ST LOUIS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MISSOURI HEADWATER POINTS *** : EWNM7 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 :EWING MO 5E NORTH FABIUS R EWMM7 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.1 :EWING MO 1NNE MIDDLE FABIUS R PALM7 0.9/ 1.1/ 1.3 :PALMYRA MO NORTH R TAYM7 1.3/ 1.7/ 2.1 :TAYLOR MO S FABIUS R PMZM7 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.0 :HOLLIDAY MO 2N MI FK SALT R TRYM7 1.1/ 1.4/ 1.9 :TROY MO CUIVRE R DRCM7 0.8/ 1.0/ 1.3 :ST PETERS MO DARDENNE CR LSLM7 0.8/ 1.0/ 1.5 :LAKE SAINT LOUIS PERUQUE CR - ABOVE LSTM7 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :LAKE ST LOUIS MO PERUQUE CR CSNM7 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.1 :COOK STATION MO 1N MERAMEC R SEEM7 1.1/ 1.6/ 2.3 :STEELVILLE MO 2N MERAMEC R UNNM7 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8 :UNION MO BOURBEUSE R BYRM7 2.2/ 2.9/ 3.5 :BYRNESVILLE MO 2NNE BIG R .END $$  681 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHILX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : BMII2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BLOOMINGTON IL SUGAR CR RLLI2 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5 :ROWELL IL SALT CR .END $$  682 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHMKX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 MILWAUKEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : AFTW3 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.4 :AFTON WI ROCK R BCHW3 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.6 :BLANCHARDVILLE WI E BR PECATONICA R BUNW3 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :BUNCOMBE WI GALENA R DARW3 1.4/ 1.6/ 2.1 :DARLINGTON WI PECATONICA R MTNW3 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.7 :MARTINTOWN WI PECATONICA R MAZW3 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.6 :MAZOMANIE WI BLACK EARTH CR KINW3 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.1 :MILWAUKEE WI KINNICKINNIC R SEBW3 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7 :SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN R WKEW3 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4 :WAUKESHA WI FOX R WWTW3 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.7 :WAUWATOSA WI MENOMONEE R BLOW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7 :BELOIT WI TURTLE CR MFSW3 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :MENOMONEE FALLS WI MENOMONEE R OAKW3 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5 :SOUTH MILWAUKEE OAK CR .END $$  685 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHAPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 GAYLORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MICHIGAN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BVTM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BEAVERTON MI TOBACCO R MYFM4 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5 :MAYFIELD MI BOARDMAN R RUDM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :RUDYARD MI PINE RIVER .END $$  686 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHFGF HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : CSRM5 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.0 :CAMPBELL MN 1W SO FK RABBIT R MALM5 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.2 :MALUNG MN 2NW ROSEAU R BLO SO FK : : *** NORTH DAKOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DWGN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DWIGHT ND 1NE ANTELOPE CR HGRN8 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.2 :HILLSBORO ND GOOSE R LTRN8 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2 :LARIMORE ND 5ENE TURTLE R .END $$  688 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHDMX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : AKWI4 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :ACKWORTH IA SOUTH R AMWI4 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.0 :AMES IA IOWAY CR BSSI4 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5 :BUSSEY IA CEDAR CR DFMI4 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :DSM-EASTON FOUR MILE CR CLVI4 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.3 :CLIVE I-80/35 WALNUT CR DOSI4 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4 :DSM-63RD ST WALNUT CR MCWI4 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.0 :MASON CITY IA WINNEBAGO R .END $$  689 FOUS73 KMSR 152000 FFHARX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 LA CROSSE HYDRLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 261015 Z DH18/DC2610152000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DEHI4 3.5/ 3.7/ 3.9 :DECORAH IA UPPER IOWA R DCHI4 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.7 :DORCHESTER IA UPPER IOWA R GRBI4 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.8 :GARBER IA TURKEY R : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : ASTM5 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2 :AUSTIN WWTP MN CEDAR R DOBM5 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :AUSTIN MN-21ST DOBBINS CR TRCM5 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.3 :AUSTIN MN-41 AV NW TURTLE CR HOUM5 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.0 :HOUSTON MN ROOT R LNSM5 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.2 :LANESBORO MN S BR ROOT R LANM5 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5 :LANSING MN CEDAR R PTNM5 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.4 :PRESTON MN S BR ROOT R RBCM5 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.8 :ROCHESTER MN BEAR CR RCCM5 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.4 :ROCHESTER MN CASCADE CR ROCM5 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.1 :ROCHESTER MN SILVER CR RCSM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.2 :HWY 14 ROCHESTER S FK ZUMBRO R RCHM5 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.6 :ROCHESTER MN S FK ZUMBRO R WSPM5 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.4 :WHITEWATER ST.PK MFK WHITEWATER R ZUMM5 2.9/ 3.5/ 4.4 :ZUMBRO FALLS MN ZUMBRO R : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BTNW3 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.7 :BURTON WI GRANT R DDGW3 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.5 :DODGE WI TREMPEALEAU R GMIW3 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.0 :GAYS MILLS WI KICKAPOO R HILW3 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1 :HILLSBORO WWTP WI S BR BARABOO R LAFW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0 :LA FARGE WI KICKAPOO R NEIW3 2.8/ 3.6/ 4.3 :NEILLSVILLE WI BLACK R ONTW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :ONTARIO WI KICKAPOO R REAW3 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8 :READSTOWN WI KICKAPOO R RVLW3 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0 :ROCKVILLE WI 2E PLATTE R SOGW3 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6 :SOLDIERS GROVE WI KICKAPOO R STEW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :STEUBEN WI KICKAPOO R VIOW3 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.7 :VIOLA WI KICKAPOO R .END $$  838 AWUS01 KWNH 152104 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-160300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1500 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...southwestern to northern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152102Z - 160300Z Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across southwestern to northern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Thunderstorm coverage is likely to expand through 00Z with areas of training supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches. Discussion...Radar imagery from 2030Z showed a cluster of thunderstorms bisecting I-20 in the vicinity of Abilene, slowly tracking toward the east near a frontal wave. Additional slow moving thunderstorms were noted about 20 to 60 miles east and northeast of Abilene, located along an outflow boundary that draped eastward from the frontal wave near Abilene, across northwestern TX before curving northeastward into southeastern OK. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with these thunderstorms has generally peaked in the 1 to 2 inch range over the past couple of hours. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a corridor of ~1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE that extended near and south of the outflow boundary over northern TX to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, out ahead of a cold front over western and southwestern TX. The region of TX between the Rio Grande and lower Pecos Valley to the Red River between Vernon and Denison remained located within an anomalous stream of moisture containing PW values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches via recent GPS observations. Visible satellite imagery revealed a number of smaller scale circulations embedded within this moisture axis over northern Mexico, advancing northward, with one near the Rio Grande just south of Val Verde County. Short term forecasts show the cold front continuing to advance southeastward through this evening, catching up with and overtaking the outflow boundary in place over northern TX through 03Z. As peak heating combines with increasing low level convergence in association with the approaching cold front and subtle embedded mid-level impulses, numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop through the evening hours from the Rio Grande, northward. Between 00-03Z an axis of thunderstorms is expected to be in place from the Rio Grande to northern TX, but waning instability across northern locations will favor higher rainfall rate potential across southern locations after 00Z. Within axes of SW to NE training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely, but peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ may also occur. These higher rainfall rates are likely to result in at least a few areas of flash flooding into the early overnight hours. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 34029915 33979864 33799804 33749748 33889666 33879649 33709646 33289658 32529735 31339860 30309943 29580037 29320101 29410117 29510144 29620167 29660221 30110227 31170194 32510048 33429997 33899946