802 AWUS01 KWNH 180026 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 825 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Southwest IA...Northwest MO...Central to Northeast KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 180025Z - 180600Z SUMMARY...Training/Back-building cells at apex of dry slot will be slow moving while higher moisture flux cells northward will track through areas of recently saturated grounds with rates of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3" totals, pose widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding into early overnight period. DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis depicts a very deep, but narrow surface trough extending from a surface low in SE SD, southward to a 993mb low just south of the central NEB/KS border at the nose of an equally narrow but very dry slot; simultaneously, a strong northern stream cold front is dropping southeastward from the low resulting is a very strong surface to boundary layer flow with a broad area of 20 to 30kts from the south slowly backing toward the frontal zone. This results is a long axis of strong moisture flux convergence, especially across SE NEB where Tds are in the high 60s, tipping toward the low 70s across the Missouri River into IA/N MO. While the solid EML is well denoted in the CIRA LPW 850-700mb layer across much of this areas, return moisture wrapped around the apex of the tight inverted trough, is pooled along the approaching cold front. So while the steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kd across E KS into SE NEB, there is some entrainment of higher moisture and stronger thunderstorms are starting to moisten the mid-layer profile and overall rainfall efficiency is starting to increase and will do so after sunset. Coincident with the inverted trough is a tight 500-1000mb thickness ridge the becomes a bit more divergent in isoheight lines along and east of the trough axis. This supports reduced forward propagation vectors, especially near the surface low and south across central KS and with deep layer fairly unidirectional flow from the SW, may allow for training/repeating across this area while cells/clusters further north will start propagating east-northeastward at a more reasonable rate across E NEB into IA. Evaporative loss will limit extreme rates, though the moisture flux on the 30+kt inflow should support 1.5"/hr with an occasionally uptick to 1.75"+, and may be slightly higher due to ingest of smoke particulates from the prairie fires in Clark and Meade counties. Northward in SE NEB and along the IA/MO border, the heavy rainfall last evening has brought FFG values into a range (1-1.5"/hr <2"/3hrs) that may be locally exceeded with the clusters moving east, suggesting a scattered incident or two of flash flooding will be possible through early overnight period. Southward across central KS, the unidirectional steering and upwind propagation may allow for increased residency; so while this area's soil conditions are very dry, the prolonged nature of rainfall with localized spots of 2-4" may also result in localized FF. (Note: a backyard observation near Dorrance, KS in E Russell county saw just below 2" in the last hour). So all considering, a few spots of flash flooding are considered possible across the MPD area of concern through the overnight period. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 42169490 42079412 41929340 41309302 40119334 39529611 38429803 38269948 38889946 39559824 40669796 41839753 42149622  144 AWUS01 KWNH 180026 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 825 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...Southeast NEB...Southwest IA...Northwest MO...Central to Northeast KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 180025Z - 180600Z SUMMARY...Training/Back-building cells at apex of dry slot will be slow moving while higher moisture flux cells northward will track through areas of recently saturated grounds with rates of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3" totals, pose widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding into early overnight period. DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis depicts a very deep, but narrow surface trough extending from a surface low in SE SD, southward to a 993mb low just south of the central NEB/KS border at the nose of an equally narrow but very dry slot; simultaneously, a strong northern stream cold front is dropping southeastward from the low resulting is a very strong surface to boundary layer flow with a broad area of 20 to 30kts from the south slowly backing toward the frontal zone. This results is a long axis of strong moisture flux convergence, especially across SE NEB where Tds are in the high 60s, tipping toward the low 70s across the Missouri River into IA/N MO. While the solid EML is well denoted in the CIRA LPW 850-700mb layer across much of this areas, return moisture wrapped around the apex of the tight inverted trough, is pooled along the approaching cold front. So while the steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kd across E KS into SE NEB, there is some entrainment of higher moisture and stronger thunderstorms are starting to moisten the mid-layer profile and overall rainfall efficiency is starting to increase and will do so after sunset. Coincident with the inverted trough is a tight 500-1000mb thickness ridge the becomes a bit more divergent in isoheight lines along and east of the trough axis. This supports reduced forward propagation vectors, especially near the surface low and south across central KS and with deep layer fairly unidirectional flow from the SW, may allow for training/repeating across this area while cells/clusters further north will start propagating east-northeastward at a more reasonable rate across E NEB into IA. Evaporative loss will limit extreme rates, though the moisture flux on the 30+kt inflow should support 1.5"/hr with an occasionally uptick to 1.75"+, and may be slightly higher due to ingest of smoke particulates from the prairie fires in Clark and Meade counties. Northward in SE NEB and along the IA/MO border, the heavy rainfall last evening has brought FFG values into a range (1-1.5"/hr <2"/3hrs) that may be locally exceeded with the clusters moving east, suggesting a scattered incident or two of flash flooding will be possible through early overnight period. Southward across central KS, the unidirectional steering and upwind propagation may allow for increased residency; so while this area's soil conditions are very dry, the prolonged nature of rainfall with localized spots of 2-4" may also result in localized FF. (Note: a backyard observation near Dorrance, KS in E Russell county saw just below 2" in the last hour). So all considering, a few spots of flash flooding are considered possible across the MPD area of concern through the overnight period. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 42169490 42079412 41929340 41309302 40119334 39529611 38429803 38269948 38889946 39559824 40669796 41839753 42149622  698 FGUS74 KORN 180050 FFHMRX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....MORRISTOWN TN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....TENNESSEE : DOET1 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.5 :ELIZABETHTON, TN DOE R. RMTT1 3.5/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.4 :ROAN MOUNTAIN, TN DOE R. : :.....VIRGINIA : CLVV2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.9 :CLEVELAND, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  691 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHFFC HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ATLANTA GA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....GEORGIA : ENGG1 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :NEW ENGLAND, GA LOOKOUT CREEK HWEG1 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.8 :HIAWASSEE, GA HIAWASSEE R. .END $$  694 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHJAN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSISSIPPI : MEIM6 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.5 :MERIDIAN, MS SOWASHEE CREEK JCCM6 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS CANY CREEK JHMM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.8 :JACKSON, MS HANGING MOSS CREEK LYNM6 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS LYNCH CREEK TOWM6 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS TOWN CREEK UBCM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS EUBANKS CREEK .END $$  695 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHSHV HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....SHREVEPORT LA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....LOUISIANA : KEIL1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :KEITHVILLE, LA CYPRESS BAYOU .END $$  696 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHRNK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....BLACKSBURG VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....VIRGINIA : SALV2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.0 :SALTVILLE, VA N.F. HOLSTON R. SGWN7 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.4/ 3.0 :SUGAR GROVE, NC WATAUGA R. SMFV2 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.5 :SEVEN MILE FORD, VA M.F. HOLSTON R. RLRV2 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 3.0 :RICHLANDS, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  697 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHLSX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ST. LOUIS MO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSOURI : ANNM7 3.5/ 4.8/ 5.5 :ANNAPOLIS, MO BLACK R. .END $$  699 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHGSP HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....NORTH CAROLINA : ROSN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :ROSMAN, NC FRENCH BROAD R. BLTN7 3.4/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BILTMORE, NC SWANNANOAH R. BIRN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BIRDTOWN, NC OCONALUFTEE R. .END $$  700 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHHUN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....HUNTSVILLE AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ALABAMA : FRYA1 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5 :FARLEY, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK SHEA1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :SHERWOOD, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK ATNA1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :ATHENS, AL LIMESTONE CREEK BPPA1 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.3 :BUCKS POCKET, AL S. SAUTY CREEK MADA1 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.3 :MADISON, AL INDIAN CREEK .END $$  705 FOUS74 KORN 180050 FFHLZK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....LITTLE ROCK AR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 750 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180050 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ARKANSAS : BTNA4 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.7 :BENTON, AR SALINE R. CIGA4 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.1 :CLINTON, AR S. FK LZKTLE RED R. HDYA4 3.5/ 4.7/ 5.5 :HARDY, AR SPRING R. .END $$  084 AWUS01 KWNH 180059 FFGMPD WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0180 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 857 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...Northern Iowa...Southern Minnesota...Parts of Northwest Wisconsin... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 180100Z - 180600Z SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and increasing moisture flux into expanding convective clusters/small MCS features support potential for repeating and spots of 2-4". Localized flash flooding remains possible through the early overnight period. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depict broad long-wave trough across the Inter-mountain West with broad southwesterly flow downstream across the Plains. At the apex an expanding convective complex shows strong diffluent outflow pattern at the right entrance to strengthening jet streak aloft providing broad scale ascent as well as strengthening of a broad south-southwest LLJ. At the surface the northern surface low/apex of a tight and deep inverted surface trough is crossing out of SE SDAK into MN while drawing a well defined warm front northward. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis notes that core of western Gulf moisture is finally arriving northward along and east of the advancing cold front that extends from the surface low back across eastern NEB. The cluster in SW MN has a very long history of severe and strong isallobaric backing influence to maximize moisture flux pulled along and north of the surface front, supporting intense but short-term rainfall rates near 1.5-2"/hr mostly falling in 15-30 minutes. However, given the stronger LLJ and isentropic ascent, downstream convection is filling along and northeast where convergence is maximized. Deep layer steering flow will allow for some repeating of the cores to increase intense rainfall duration over 1-2 hours allowing for localized totals to reach 2-3" values. In addition, a second complex north of a secondary low across NE NEB has seen a similar rapid cooling of the cirrus canopy with numerous overshooting tops; deeper moisture pool has also broadened the downdrafts width as the line matures into a larger linear convective complex. While there is a general eastward propagation, RADAR and satellite trends suggest there is also a potential to repeat/track through similar areas of the northern cluster across portions of S MN/N IA. Recent WoFS runs helps to confirm this as mean and 90th percentile qpf suggest 2.5-5" maximum swath is possible. This provides some confidence that spots of 2-4" are becoming increasingly possible through the early overnight period. While NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture fields show drought is solid with ratios running from 25% in NW IA to near 40% in south-central MN toward the Twin Cities, the FFG values suggest 1hr rates of 1.5"/hr and less than 2.5"/3hr could result in flash flooding. If that is the case, incidents of flash flooding are possible, but given the overall drought conditions would be looking to smaller localized incident or two where rates can reach closer to 1.75-2"/hr, where infiltration would be reduced from the shear amount too fast. So given the overall pattern/trends, flash flooding continues to be considered possible across the MPD area of concern tonight. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC... LAT...LON 45259218 44609139 43359219 42549394 42299574 42559638 43409586 44359487 45209331  591 FOUS62 KALR 180121 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 915 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20260518 Z DH00/DC202605180115 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.3/ 2.3/ 3.2 PRZ002 1.3/ 2.3/ 3.2 PRZ003 1.3/ 2.3/ 2.8 PRZ004 1.3/ 2.3/ 2.8 PRZ005 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ006 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ007 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ008 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ009 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ010 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ011 1.4/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ012 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 PRZ013 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 VIZ001 2.0/ 3.1/ 4.3 VIZ002 2.1/ 3.2/ 4.5 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  928 FOUS71 KRHA 180150 FFHNJ1 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180130/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA... : Ramapo River... MAWN4 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Mahwah (8ft) Ramapo River :MAWN4md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.1 Mahwah (9) Ramapo River :MAWN4mj 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.2/ 5.8 Mahwah (12) Ramapo River : Hohokus Brook... HOHN4 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.6 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft) Hohokus Brook : Saddle River... LODN4 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.8 :Lodi (5.5ft) Saddle River :LODN4md 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.5 Lodi (7) Saddle River :LODN4mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 4.0 Lodi (8) Saddle River : Rahway River... SPGN4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.1 :Springfield (5.5ft) Rahway River : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : PASSAIC BASIN... : Passaic River... CAMN4 3.2/ 3.3/ 4.3/ 4.7 :Chatham (6ft) Passaic River :CAMN4md 5.3/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 6.9 Chatham (7.2) Passaic River :CAMN4mj 6.2/ 6.4/ 7.3/ 8.0 Chatham (8.2) Passaic River : Rockaway River... BOTN4 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 6.5 :Boonton Abv. (5ft) Rockaway River :BOTN4md 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 7.5 Boonton Abv. (6) Rockaway River :BOTN4mj 4.9/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 8.0 Boonton Abv. (7) Rockaway River : Whippany River... WHIN4 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.7 :Morristown (6ft) Whippany River : RARITAN BASIN.. : South Branch Raritan River... STTN4 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.9 :Stanton (8ft) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4md 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.9/ 5.9 Stanton (10) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4mj 3.3/ 3.9/ 5.6/ 6.8 Stanton (12) S. Br. Raritan River : North Branch Raritan River... RRTN4 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.3 :Raritan (10ft) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4md 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.0 Raritan (12) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4mj 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.9 Raritan (15) N. Br. Raritan River : Millstone River... BKWN4 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.5 :Blackwells Mills(9ft) Millstone River :BKWN4md 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.6 Blackwells Mills(10) Millstone River :BKWN4mj 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 5.8 Blackwells Mills(15) Millstone River : DELAWARE BASIN... : Assunpink Creek...TACN4 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Trenton (8.5ft) Assunpink Creek :TACN4md 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.2 Trenton (9.5) Assunpink Creek :TACN4mj 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.1 Trenton (11) Assunpink Creek .END $$ NNNN $$ NNNN  932 FOUS71 KRHA 180150 FFHVA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE POTOMAC AND JAMES BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180130/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : POTOMAC BASIN... : North Branch Potomac River... KITM2 2.1/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.7 :Kitzmiller (9ft) :KITM2md 3.7/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (11) :KITM2mj 5.7/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (13) : Georges Creek... WSTM2 1.6/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Westernport (8ft) :WSTM2md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5 Westernport (10) :WSTM2mj 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4 Westernport (12) : South Branch Potomac River... FKLW2 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Franklin (7ft) :FKLW2md 3.1/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.5 Franklin (9) :FKLW2mj 3.6/ 4.7/ 4.9/ 5.5 Franklin (11) : South River... WAYV2 4.1/ 4.3/ 5.3/ 5.7 :Waynesboro (9.5ft) :WAYV2md 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.4/ 6.9 Waynesboro (11) :WAYV2mj 5.6/ 6.1/ 7.4/ 8.0 Waynesboro (13) : North Fork Shenandoah River... COOV2 5.7/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.3 :Cootes Store (15ft) :COOV2md 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (18) :COOV2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (21) : Antietam Creek... SACM2 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.2 :Sharpsburg (8ft) :SACM2md 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 5.9 Sharpsburg (10) :SACM2mj 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 7.0 Sharpsburg (12) : Seneca Creek... DAWM2 2.6/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2 :Dawsonville (7.5ft) :DAWM2md 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5 Dawsonville (11) :DAWM2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Dawsonville (16) : : NWS BLACKSBURG SERVICE AREA... : Maury River... BVSV2 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.3 :Buena Vista (17ft) :BVSV2cs 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.8/ 5.4 Buena Vista (13) :BVSV2md 3.8/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 6.6 Buena Vista (19) :BVSV2mj 4.0/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 7.0 Buena Vista (21) .END : :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : Rock Creek at Sherrill Drive., Washington DC .B RHA 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180130/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages RCKD2 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.4 :Washington, DC (7ft) :RCKD2md 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.5 Washington, DC (10) :RCKD2mj 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.6 Washington, DC (12) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E RCKD2 20260518 DC2605180150/DH03/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1 $$ NNNN  933 FOUS71 KRHA 180150 FFHPA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180130/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioughnioga River... CRTN6 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8 :Cortland (8ft) :CRTN6md 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.1 Cortland (10) :CRTN6mj 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.7 Cortland (12.5) : Chenango River... SHBN6 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8 :Sherburne (8.5ft) :SHBN6md 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.1 Sherburne (9) :SHBN6mj 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.6 Sherburne (10.6) : Otselic River... CINN6 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8 :Cincinnatus (9ft) : ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table. : Cohocton River... CMPN6 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.5 :Campbell (8ft) :CMPN6md 2.3/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.1 Campbell (10) :CMPN6mj 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.5/ 3.6 Campbell (11) : Canisteo River... WCRN6 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.5 :West Cameron (17ft) :WCRN6md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.7 West Cameron (18) :WCRN6mj 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.3 West Cameron (21) : Towanda Creek... MONP1 1.8/ 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.4 :Monroeton (15.5ft) :MONP1md 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6 Monroeton (17) :MONP1mj 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.2 Monroeton (18.5) : Tunkhannock Creek... TNKP1 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.1 :Tunkhannock (11ft) :TNKP1md 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.4/ 2.5 Tunkhannock (14) :TNKP1mj 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.8/ 2.9 Tunkhannock (17) : Lackawanna River... OFRP1 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.7 :Old Forge (11ft) :OFRP1md 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 Old Forge (13) :OFRP1mj 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.3 Old Forge (16) : DELAWARE BASIN... : East Branch Delaware River... MRGN6 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.9 :Margaretville (11ft) :MRGN6md 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 5.0 Margaretville (12) :MRGN6mj 3.9/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 6.4 Margaretville (13) : West Branch Delaware River... WALN6 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :Walton (11.5ft) :WALN6md 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.7 Walton (14) :WALN6mj 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.5 Walton (16) : Beaverkill Creek... CKFN6 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :Cooks Falls (10ft) :CKFN6md 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.6/ 4.5 Cooks Falls (16) :CKFN6mj 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.3/ 5.6 Cooks Falls (18) : Lackawaxen River... HWYP1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0 :Hawley (14ft) :HWYP1md 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.2 Hawley (20) :HWYP1mj 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.6 Hawley (22) : : NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioga River... MFDP1 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Mansfield (12ft) :MFDP1md 1.9/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 3.5 Mansfield (13) :MFDP1mj 2.1/ 2.6/ 3.6/ 4.0 Mansfield (14) : Penns Creek... PNCP1 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.1 :Penns Creek (8ft) :PNCP1md 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.1 Penns Creek (10) :PNCP1mj 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.7 Penns Creek (12) : Frankstown Branch Juniata River... WIBP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.1 :Williamsburg (12ft) :WIBP1md 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.3 Williamsburg (13) :WIBP1mj 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.5 Williamsburg (15) : Little Juniata River... SPKP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2 :Spruce Creek (8ft) :SPKP1md 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6 Spruce Creek (10) :SPKP1mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.4 Spruce Creek (14) : Aughwick Creek... SLYP1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Shirleysburg (10ft) :SLYP1md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.9 Shirleysburg (12) :SLYP1mj 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 7.2 Shirleysburg (20) : Sherman Creek... SMDP1 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Shermans Dale (9ft) :SMDP1md 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.6 Shermans Dale (11) :SMDP1mj 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.2/ 5.6 Shermans Dale (16) : Conodoguinet Creek... HGSP1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.7 :Hogestown (8ft) :HGSP1md 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.0 Hogestown (10) :HGSP1mj 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.3/ 5.8 Hogestown (12) : Yellow Breeches Creek... CPHP1 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.5 :Camp Hill (7ft) :CPHP1md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 4.0 Camp Hill (9) :CPHP1mj 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 5.0 Camp Hill (13) : Swatara Creek... HTVP1 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.8 :Harper Tavern (9ft) :HTVP1md 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.4 Harper Tavern (12) :HTVP1mj 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 4.1 Harper Tavern (15) : Conestoga River... LNCP1 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.5 :Lancaster (11ft) :LNCP1md 2.3/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.8 Lancaster (13) :LNCP1mj 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 4.2 Lancaster (15) : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... LGVP1 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.2 :Landingville (8ft) :LGVP1md 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.4 Landingville (12) :LGVP1mj 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.6 Landingville (14) : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... BREP1 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 5.6 :Berne (12ft) :BREP1md 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 7.0 Berne (14) :BREP1mj 6.4/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 8.0 Berne (16) : Bush Kill... SHOP1 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.3 :Shoemakers (6ft) :SHOP1md 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.2 Shoemakers (7) :SHOP1mj 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.7 Shoemakers (8) : Brodhead Creek... MNSP1 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 3.5 :Minisink Hills(10ft) :MNSP1md 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 3.9 Minisink Hills(12) :MNSP1mj 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.6/ 4.6 Minisink Hills(15) : Little Lehigh Creek...APAP1 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 5.9 :Allentown-10th (8ft) :APAP1md 5.2/ 5.6/ 6.2/ 7.5 Allentown-10th (10) :APAP1mj 6.2/ 6.7/ 7.4/ 8.0 Allentown-10th (12) : Perkiomen Creek... GRAP1 2.7/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.2 :Graterford (11ft) :GRAP1md 3.1/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.8 Graterford (13) :GRAP1mj 3.8/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 6.1 Graterford (16) : Neshaminy Creek... LNGP1 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Langhorne (9ft) :LNGP1md 3.3/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.4 Langhorne (10) :LNGP1mj 3.7/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 5.0 Langhorne (12) : Chester Creek... CHSP1 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.6 :Chester (8ft) :CHSP1md 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.4 Chester (10) :CHSP1mj 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.8 Chester (14) : West Branch Brandywine Creek... MODP1 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.7/ 6.0 :Modena (9ft) :MODP1md 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.4/ 6.7 Modena (10) :MODP1mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Modena (12) : East Branch Brandywine Creek... DWNP1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :Downingtown (7ft) :DWNP1md 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6 Downingtown (9) :DWNP1mj 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7 Downingtown (11) : Brandywine Creek... CDFP1 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.3 :Chadds Ford (9ft) :CDFP1md 2.6/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.1 Chadds Ford (11) :CDFP1mj 3.1/ 4.0/ 4.7/ 4.9 Chadds Ford (13) : Christina River... CHBD1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.3 :Coochs Brdg(11ft) :CHBD1md 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 4.1 Coochs Brdg(12) :CHBD1mj 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 5.2 Coochs Brdg(13) : White Clay Creek... DPKD1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.3 :Delaware Pk (13ft) :DPKD1md 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.2 Delaware Pk (15) :DPKD1mj 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.9 Delaware Pk (16.5) : Red Clay Creek... RCCD1 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7 :Wooddale (7ft) :RCCD1md 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.7 Wooddale (8.5) :RCCD1mj 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 5.7 Wooddale (10) .END :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... .B RHA 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180130/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages : Lackawanna River... ARHP1 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.2 :Archbald (8ft) :ARHP1md 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.1 Archbald (9) :ARHP1mj 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 6.1 Archbald (10) PKIP1 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.5 :Scranton (12.5ft.) :PKIP1md 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.8 Scranton (14) :PKIP1mj 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 5.0 Scranton (15) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E ARHP1 20260518 DC2605180150/DH03/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.7/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5 .E PKIP1 20260518 DC2605180150/DH03/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 1.9/1.9/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8 $$ NNNN  404 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHMPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 TWIN CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : SNCM5 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8 :JORDAN MN SAND CR PNLM5 2.9/ 3.2/ 4.0 :PINE ISLAND MN MID FK ZUMBRO R PILM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN N B MID FK ZUMBRO R WGOM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.1 :WANAMINGO MN NO FK ZUMBRO R .END $$  407 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHFGF HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : CSRM5 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.5 :CAMPBELL MN 1W SO FK RABBIT R MALM5 3.2/ 3.7/ 3.8 :MALUNG MN 2NW ROSEAU R BLO SO FK : : *** NORTH DAKOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DWGN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DWIGHT ND 1NE ANTELOPE CR HGRN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :HILLSBORO ND GOOSE R LTRN8 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :LARIMORE ND 5ENE TURTLE R .END $$  417 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHMKX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 MILWAUKEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : AFTW3 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.7 :AFTON WI ROCK R BCHW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7 :BLANCHARDVILLE WI E BR PECATONICA R BUNW3 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9 :BUNCOMBE WI GALENA R DARW3 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.4 :DARLINGTON WI PECATONICA R MTNW3 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.2 :MARTINTOWN WI PECATONICA R MAZW3 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8 :MAZOMANIE WI BLACK EARTH CR KINW3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :MILWAUKEE WI KINNICKINNIC R SEBW3 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN R WKEW3 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.5 :WAUKESHA WI FOX R WWTW3 3.5/ 3.8/ 3.9 :WAUWATOSA WI MENOMONEE R BLOW3 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5 :BELOIT WI TURTLE CR MFSW3 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :MENOMONEE FALLS WI MENOMONEE R OAKW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0 :SOUTH MILWAUKEE OAK CR .END $$  408 FOUS73 KMSR 180201 FFHAPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 GAYLORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MICHIGAN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BVTM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BEAVERTON MI TOBACCO R MYFM4 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1 :MAYFIELD MI BOARDMAN R RUDM4 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.6 :RUDYARD MI PINE RIVER .END $$  438 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHLOT HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : NBPI2 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.2 :CHICAGO IL N BR CHICAGO R CDCI2 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.5 :CHICAGO HEIGHTS IL DEER CR DRFI2 2.6/ 3.2/ 4.0 :DEERFIELD IL N BR CHICAGO R DEKI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DE KALB IL S BR KISHWAUKEE R DSPI2 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7 :DES PLAINES IL DES PLAINES R WLRI2 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.1 :DES PLAINES IL WELLER CR EMHI2 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.6 :ELMHURST IL SALT CR FLSI2 2.7/ 3.4/ 3.8 :FLOSSMOOR IL BUTTERFIELD CR GLWI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.3 :GLENWOOD IL THORN CR GUNI2 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6 :GURNEE IL DES PLAINES R JHCI2 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9 :JOLIET IL HICKORY CR LAFI2 2.6/ 3.2/ 4.0 :LAKE FOREST IL SKOKIE R NILI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NILES IL N BR CHICAGO R NBRI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NORTHBROOK IL W FK N BR CHICAGO R OAKI2 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.9 :OAK FOREST IL MIDLOTHIAN CR MCDI2 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.2 :PROSPECT HTS IL MCDONALD CR ALPI2 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :ROCKFORD IL ALPINE DAM-KEITH CR LEVI2 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.9 :ROCKFORD IL LEVINGS LAKE PPLI2 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.1 :ROCKFORD IL PAGE PARK LAKE ROLI2 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.8 :ROLLING MEADOWS IL SALT CR SCHI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :ST CHARLES IL FERSON CR SORI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.4 :SHOREWOOD IL DU PAGE R THNI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :THORNTON IL THORN CR WHEI2 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.5 :WHEELING IL BUFFALO CR WLSI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WILLOW SPRINGS IL FLAG CR YRKI2 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.0 :YORKVILLE IL BLACKBERRY CR : : *** INDIANA HEADWATER POINTS *** : HDDI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DYER IN HART DITCH MNTI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.1 :MUNSTER IN HART DITCH LCMI3 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 :MUNSTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R PRTI3 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :PORTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R .END $$  439 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHILX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : BMII2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BLOOMINGTON IL SUGAR CR RLLI2 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3 :ROWELL IL SALT CR .END $$  447 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHARX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 LA CROSSE HYDRLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DEHI4 3.5/ 3.8/ 3.9 :DECORAH IA UPPER IOWA R DCHI4 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.4 :DORCHESTER IA UPPER IOWA R GRBI4 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.9 :GARBER IA TURKEY R : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : ASTM5 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9 :AUSTIN WWTP MN CEDAR R DOBM5 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3 :AUSTIN MN-21ST DOBBINS CR TRCM5 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4 :AUSTIN MN-41 AV NW TURTLE CR HOUM5 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2 :HOUSTON MN ROOT R LNSM5 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.1 :LANESBORO MN S BR ROOT R LANM5 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.0 :LANSING MN CEDAR R PTNM5 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.4 :PRESTON MN S BR ROOT R RBCM5 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.9 :ROCHESTER MN BEAR CR RCCM5 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.1 :ROCHESTER MN CASCADE CR ROCM5 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.9 :ROCHESTER MN SILVER CR RCSM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :HWY 14 ROCHESTER S FK ZUMBRO R RCHM5 3.1/ 3.5/ 3.9 :ROCHESTER MN S FK ZUMBRO R WSPM5 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3 :WHITEWATER ST.PK MFK WHITEWATER R ZUMM5 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.0 :ZUMBRO FALLS MN ZUMBRO R : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BTNW3 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.5 :BURTON WI GRANT R DDGW3 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6 :DODGE WI TREMPEALEAU R GMIW3 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.9 :GAYS MILLS WI KICKAPOO R HILW3 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4 :HILLSBORO WWTP WI S BR BARABOO R LAFW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8 :LA FARGE WI KICKAPOO R NEIW3 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5 :NEILLSVILLE WI BLACK R ONTW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1 :ONTARIO WI KICKAPOO R REAW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :READSTOWN WI KICKAPOO R RVLW3 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.5 :ROCKVILLE WI 2E PLATTE R SOGW3 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4 :SOLDIERS GROVE WI KICKAPOO R STEW3 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :STEUBEN WI KICKAPOO R VIOW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :VIOLA WI KICKAPOO R .END $$  448 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHDMX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : AKWI4 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9 :ACKWORTH IA SOUTH R AMWI4 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.7 :AMES IA IOWAY CR BSSI4 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.3 :BUSSEY IA CEDAR CR DFMI4 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :DSM-EASTON FOUR MILE CR CLVI4 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.7 :CLIVE I-80/35 WALNUT CR DOSI4 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9 :DSM-63RD ST WALNUT CR MCWI4 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3 :MASON CITY IA WINNEBAGO R .END $$  453 FOUS73 KMSR 180200 FFHLSX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 ST LOUIS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH00/DC2605180200 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MISSOURI HEADWATER POINTS *** : EWNM7 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6 :EWING MO 5E NORTH FABIUS R EWMM7 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.8 :EWING MO 1NNE MIDDLE FABIUS R PALM7 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4 :PALMYRA MO NORTH R TAYM7 1.4/ 1.7/ 2.0 :TAYLOR MO S FABIUS R PMZM7 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4 :HOLLIDAY MO 2N MI FK SALT R TRYM7 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.6 :TROY MO CUIVRE R DRCM7 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1 :ST PETERS MO DARDENNE CR LSLM7 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0 :LAKE SAINT LOUIS PERUQUE CR - ABOVE LSTM7 1.2/ 1.3/ 1.5 :LAKE ST LOUIS MO PERUQUE CR CSNM7 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6 :COOK STATION MO 1N MERAMEC R SEEM7 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.6 :STEELVILLE MO 2N MERAMEC R UNNM7 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6 :UNION MO BOURBEUSE R BYRM7 2.6/ 2.8/ 2.9 :BYRNESVILLE MO 2NNE BIG R .END $$  293 AWUS01 KWNH 180614 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-181016- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 213 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...central/eastern KS into western MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 180612Z - 181016Z Summary...Flash flooding is likely to focus in one or two locations from central to eastern KS into western MO through 10Z. Training will likely result in 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher) with additional totals over 4 inches possible through 10Z on an isolated basis. Discussion...06Z radar imagery showed that an axis of elevated thunderstorms extended from near LYO, ENE into northwestern MO near MCI, just north and west of an outflow boundary. Training of thunderstorms in central KS has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall of 3 to 9 inches over the past 6 hours from southern Rush County into northwestern Ottawa County, though some of that could be high due to hail contamination. However, there was at least one Wunderground PWS with 7.26" to the southwest of Lincoln ending 0555Z. Current satellite trends in IR imagery showed the coldest cloud tops were slowly shifting east, coinciding with an area of strong upper level jet induced divergence and diffluence tied to a strengthening jet max extending from the west-central KS/NE border into the lower Northern Plains. A strong southerly low level jet of 50 to 65+ kt was seen in VAD wind plots at 850 mb from northern OK into southern KS, lifting atop the outflow boundary, with deeper layer wind vectors supporting SW to NE training at times. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km were observed in 00Z soundings at OKC, TOP and SGF, supporting MUCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg. Veering of the low level jet through 10Z is forecast, as the outflow boundary likely continues to advance southeastward, supporting continued elevated thunderstorms with areas of training. While increased convective inhibition with southward extent may limit how far south convection will reach, inhibition for locations farther east is forecast to remain weak. Therefore, while flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, areas of training are likely to focus high rain rates and focused flash flooding from central to eastern KS into far western MO through 10Z. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40009416 39409365 38369394 37779489 37539666 37369932 38089966 38849841 39509698 39779589  991 FOUS71 KRHA 180750 FFHNJ1 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH06/DC2605180730/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA... : Ramapo River... MAWN4 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Mahwah (8ft) Ramapo River :MAWN4md 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 4.1 Mahwah (9) Ramapo River :MAWN4mj 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.3/ 5.8 Mahwah (12) Ramapo River : Hohokus Brook... HOHN4 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.6 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft) Hohokus Brook : Saddle River... LODN4 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.8 :Lodi (5.5ft) Saddle River :LODN4md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.6 Lodi (7) Saddle River :LODN4mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 4.1 Lodi (8) Saddle River : Rahway River... SPGN4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1 :Springfield (5.5ft) Rahway River : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : PASSAIC BASIN... : Passaic River... CAMN4 3.2/ 3.3/ 4.3/ 4.8 :Chatham (6ft) Passaic River :CAMN4md 5.3/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 6.9 Chatham (7.2) Passaic River :CAMN4mj 6.2/ 6.4/ 7.3/ 8.0 Chatham (8.2) Passaic River : Rockaway River... BOTN4 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 6.5 :Boonton Abv. (5ft) Rockaway River :BOTN4md 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.1/ 7.5 Boonton Abv. (6) Rockaway River :BOTN4mj 4.9/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 8.0 Boonton Abv. (7) Rockaway River : Whippany River... WHIN4 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.7 :Morristown (6ft) Whippany River : RARITAN BASIN.. : South Branch Raritan River... STTN4 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.9 :Stanton (8ft) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4md 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.9/ 5.9 Stanton (10) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4mj 3.4/ 3.9/ 5.6/ 6.8 Stanton (12) S. Br. Raritan River : North Branch Raritan River... RRTN4 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.3 :Raritan (10ft) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.1 Raritan (12) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4mj 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.9 Raritan (15) N. Br. Raritan River : Millstone River... BKWN4 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.5 :Blackwells Mills(9ft) Millstone River :BKWN4md 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.6 Blackwells Mills(10) Millstone River :BKWN4mj 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.8 Blackwells Mills(15) Millstone River : DELAWARE BASIN... : Assunpink Creek...TACN4 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Trenton (8.5ft) Assunpink Creek :TACN4md 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.2 Trenton (9.5) Assunpink Creek :TACN4mj 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.1 Trenton (11) Assunpink Creek .END $$ NNNN $$ NNNN  992 FOUS71 KRHA 180750 FFHVA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE POTOMAC AND JAMES BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH06/DC2605180730/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : POTOMAC BASIN... : North Branch Potomac River... KITM2 2.2/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 4.7 :Kitzmiller (9ft) :KITM2md 3.7/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (11) :KITM2mj 5.8/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (13) : Georges Creek... WSTM2 1.6/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Westernport (8ft) :WSTM2md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5 Westernport (10) :WSTM2mj 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.4 Westernport (12) : South Branch Potomac River... FKLW2 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Franklin (7ft) :FKLW2md 3.1/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.5 Franklin (9) :FKLW2mj 3.6/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.5 Franklin (11) : South River... WAYV2 4.1/ 4.3/ 5.3/ 5.7 :Waynesboro (9.5ft) :WAYV2md 4.7/ 5.1/ 6.4/ 6.9 Waynesboro (11) :WAYV2mj 5.6/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.0 Waynesboro (13) : North Fork Shenandoah River... COOV2 5.7/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.3 :Cootes Store (15ft) :COOV2md 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (18) :COOV2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (21) : Antietam Creek... SACM2 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.2 :Sharpsburg (8ft) :SACM2md 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 6.0 Sharpsburg (10) :SACM2mj 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 7.0 Sharpsburg (12) : Seneca Creek... DAWM2 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.2 :Dawsonville (7.5ft) :DAWM2md 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5 Dawsonville (11) :DAWM2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Dawsonville (16) : : NWS BLACKSBURG SERVICE AREA... : Maury River... BVSV2 3.6/ 4.4/ 5.4/ 6.3 :Buena Vista (17ft) :BVSV2cs 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.8/ 5.4 Buena Vista (13) :BVSV2md 3.8/ 4.8/ 5.7/ 6.6 Buena Vista (19) :BVSV2mj 4.0/ 5.0/ 6.1/ 7.0 Buena Vista (21) .END : :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : Rock Creek at Sherrill Drive., Washington DC .B RHA 260518 Z DH06/DC2605180730/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages RCKD2 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.5 :Washington, DC (7ft) :RCKD2md 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.5 Washington, DC (10) :RCKD2mj 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.6 Washington, DC (12) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E RCKD2 20260518 DC2605180750/DH09/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1 $$ NNNN  993 FOUS71 KRHA 180750 FFHPA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH06/DC2605180730/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioughnioga River... CRTN6 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8 :Cortland (8ft) :CRTN6md 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2 Cortland (10) :CRTN6mj 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.8 Cortland (12.5) : Chenango River... SHBN6 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8 :Sherburne (8.5ft) :SHBN6md 1.6/ 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.1 Sherburne (9) :SHBN6mj 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.6 Sherburne (10.6) : Otselic River... CINN6 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8 :Cincinnatus (9ft) : ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table. : Cohocton River... CMPN6 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.5 :Campbell (8ft) :CMPN6md 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.1 Campbell (10) :CMPN6mj 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.5/ 3.6 Campbell (11) : Canisteo River... WCRN6 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.5 :West Cameron (17ft) :WCRN6md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.7 West Cameron (18) :WCRN6mj 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.4 West Cameron (21) : Towanda Creek... MONP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :Monroeton (15.5ft) :MONP1md 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.7 Monroeton (17) :MONP1mj 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.2 Monroeton (18.5) : Tunkhannock Creek... TNKP1 1.7/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.1 :Tunkhannock (11ft) :TNKP1md 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.4/ 2.5 Tunkhannock (14) :TNKP1mj 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 3.0 Tunkhannock (17) : Lackawanna River... OFRP1 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.7 :Old Forge (11ft) :OFRP1md 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 Old Forge (13) :OFRP1mj 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.3 Old Forge (16) : DELAWARE BASIN... : East Branch Delaware River... MRGN6 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.9 :Margaretville (11ft) :MRGN6md 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 5.1 Margaretville (12) :MRGN6mj 3.9/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.4 Margaretville (13) : West Branch Delaware River... WALN6 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :Walton (11.5ft) :WALN6md 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7 Walton (14) :WALN6mj 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.5 Walton (16) : Beaverkill Creek... CKFN6 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4 :Cooks Falls (10ft) :CKFN6md 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.6/ 4.6 Cooks Falls (16) :CKFN6mj 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.4/ 5.7 Cooks Falls (18) : Lackawaxen River... HWYP1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0 :Hawley (14ft) :HWYP1md 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.2 Hawley (20) :HWYP1mj 3.4/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.7 Hawley (22) : : NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioga River... MFDP1 1.8/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Mansfield (12ft) :MFDP1md 2.0/ 2.4/ 3.2/ 3.5 Mansfield (13) :MFDP1mj 2.1/ 2.6/ 3.7/ 4.0 Mansfield (14) : Penns Creek... PNCP1 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.2 :Penns Creek (8ft) :PNCP1md 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.1 Penns Creek (10) :PNCP1mj 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.7 Penns Creek (12) : Frankstown Branch Juniata River... WIBP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.2 :Williamsburg (12ft) :WIBP1md 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.3 Williamsburg (13) :WIBP1mj 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.6 Williamsburg (15) : Little Juniata River... SPKP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2 :Spruce Creek (8ft) :SPKP1md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.6 Spruce Creek (10) :SPKP1mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.4 Spruce Creek (14) : Aughwick Creek... SLYP1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Shirleysburg (10ft) :SLYP1md 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.9 Shirleysburg (12) :SLYP1mj 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 7.2 Shirleysburg (20) : Sherman Creek... SMDP1 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Shermans Dale (9ft) :SMDP1md 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.6 Shermans Dale (11) :SMDP1mj 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.2/ 5.7 Shermans Dale (16) : Conodoguinet Creek... HGSP1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.7 :Hogestown (8ft) :HGSP1md 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.1 Hogestown (10) :HGSP1mj 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 5.8 Hogestown (12) : Yellow Breeches Creek... CPHP1 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.5 :Camp Hill (7ft) :CPHP1md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 4.0 Camp Hill (9) :CPHP1mj 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 5.1 Camp Hill (13) : Swatara Creek... HTVP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.8 :Harper Tavern (9ft) :HTVP1md 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.4 Harper Tavern (12) :HTVP1mj 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 4.1 Harper Tavern (15) : Conestoga River... LNCP1 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.5 :Lancaster (11ft) :LNCP1md 2.3/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.9 Lancaster (13) :LNCP1mj 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 4.3 Lancaster (15) : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... LGVP1 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.2 :Landingville (8ft) :LGVP1md 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.4 Landingville (12) :LGVP1mj 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.6 Landingville (14) : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... BREP1 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 5.6 :Berne (12ft) :BREP1md 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 7.0 Berne (14) :BREP1mj 6.4/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 8.0 Berne (16) : Bush Kill... SHOP1 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.4 :Shoemakers (6ft) :SHOP1md 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.3 Shoemakers (7) :SHOP1mj 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.7 Shoemakers (8) : Brodhead Creek... MNSP1 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 3.6 :Minisink Hills(10ft) :MNSP1md 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 4.0 Minisink Hills(12) :MNSP1mj 2.3/ 2.7/ 3.6/ 4.7 Minisink Hills(15) : Little Lehigh Creek...APAP1 4.3/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 5.9 :Allentown-10th (8ft) :APAP1md 5.2/ 5.6/ 6.3/ 7.5 Allentown-10th (10) :APAP1mj 6.3/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 8.0 Allentown-10th (12) : Perkiomen Creek... GRAP1 2.8/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 4.2 :Graterford (11ft) :GRAP1md 3.1/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.9 Graterford (13) :GRAP1mj 3.8/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.1 Graterford (16) : Neshaminy Creek... LNGP1 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Langhorne (9ft) :LNGP1md 3.3/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.4 Langhorne (10) :LNGP1mj 3.7/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.0 Langhorne (12) : Chester Creek... CHSP1 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.6 :Chester (8ft) :CHSP1md 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.4 Chester (10) :CHSP1mj 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.8 Chester (14) : West Branch Brandywine Creek... MODP1 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.0 :Modena (9ft) :MODP1md 5.8/ 6.0/ 6.5/ 6.7 Modena (10) :MODP1mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Modena (12) : East Branch Brandywine Creek... DWNP1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :Downingtown (7ft) :DWNP1md 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.6 Downingtown (9) :DWNP1mj 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7 Downingtown (11) : Brandywine Creek... CDFP1 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.3 :Chadds Ford (9ft) :CDFP1md 2.6/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.1 Chadds Ford (11) :CDFP1mj 3.1/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 4.9 Chadds Ford (13) : Christina River... CHBD1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.4 :Coochs Brdg(11ft) :CHBD1md 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 4.1 Coochs Brdg(12) :CHBD1mj 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 5.2 Coochs Brdg(13) : White Clay Creek... DPKD1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.3 :Delaware Pk (13ft) :DPKD1md 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.3 Delaware Pk (15) :DPKD1mj 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.9 Delaware Pk (16.5) : Red Clay Creek... RCCD1 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7 :Wooddale (7ft) :RCCD1md 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.7 Wooddale (8.5) :RCCD1mj 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 5.8 Wooddale (10) .END :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... .B RHA 260518 Z DH06/DC2605180730/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages : Lackawanna River... ARHP1 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.2 :Archbald (8ft) :ARHP1md 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.2 Archbald (9) :ARHP1mj 4.3/ 4.4/ 5.0/ 6.2 Archbald (10) PKIP1 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.5 :Scranton (12.5ft.) :PKIP1md 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.8 Scranton (14) :PKIP1mj 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.0 Scranton (15) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E ARHP1 20260518 DC2605180750/DH09/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.6/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5 .E PKIP1 20260518 DC2605180750/DH09/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8 $$ NNNN  281 AWUS01 KWNH 181003 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-181500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0182 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 602 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...eastern KS into western/southwestern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181000Z - 181500Z Summary...While some uncertainty remains, concerns are increasing for possible flash flooding later this morning over western/southwestern MO into portions of eastern KS. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and 3 to 4 inches in 3 hours will be possible through 15Z (10 AM CDT). Discussion...0930Z radar imagery and surface observations showed that the southwestern end of an elongated outflow boundary has stalled over central KS, while it continued to steadily advance southeastward through MO. Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop on the cool side of the boundary over eastern KS and central MO as a strong southerly low level jet (LLJ) over KS/OK/MO overruns the well-defined boundary. While the LLJ has weakened and veered some over the central KS/OK border (less favorable angle to the outflow boundary), some recent strengthening was observed at the KINX VAD wind at 09Z to over 70 kt (but it as backed off a bit since then). Meanwhile, disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity has picked up over the past 45 minutes over southwestern MO, perhaps aided by lift ahead of a vort max observed lifting NNE from the southern OK/AR border on water vapor imagery. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8+ C/km were contributing to sizable MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg from southeastern KS into central MO. Aloft, flow remained highly diffluent between the polar and sub-tropical jet streams aloft. While recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS have struggled to properly handle the outflow boundary's southward propagation, they have been consistent with an uptick in convective vigor over the next 3-6 hours, favoring the southwestern flank of the outflow near the southern KS/MO border. It is here that the LLJ (though weakening) will focus from northeastern OK into southwestern MO into and atop the KS/MO outflow boundary. The environment will favor training with 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour and potential for 3 to 4 inches of rain in 3 hours or less. While flash flood guidance is quite high over much of the region, some limited/isolated flash flood potential will exist through 15Z and perhaps continue into the early afternoon. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39039508 39009309 38669248 38179217 37279244 36919354 37219542 37739683 37789774 38199784 38789717 38949649  194 FOUS62 KALR 181234 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 831 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20260518 Z DH12/DC202605181231 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.1/ 2.1/ 3.0 PRZ002 1.1/ 2.1/ 3.0 PRZ003 1.1/ 2.1/ 2.8 PRZ004 1.1/ 2.1/ 2.8 PRZ005 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ006 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ007 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ008 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ009 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ010 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ011 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ012 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 PRZ013 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 VIZ001 2.0/ 3.1/ 4.3 VIZ002 2.1/ 3.3/ 4.5 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  981 FGUS74 KORN 181315 FFHMRX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....MORRISTOWN TN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....TENNESSEE : DOET1 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.5 :ELIZABETHTON, TN DOE R. RMTT1 3.5/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.4 :ROAN MOUNTAIN, TN DOE R. : :.....VIRGINIA : CLVV2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.9 :CLEVELAND, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  963 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHFFC HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ATLANTA GA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....GEORGIA : ENGG1 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :NEW ENGLAND, GA LOOKOUT CREEK HWEG1 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.8 :HIAWASSEE, GA HIAWASSEE R. .END $$  964 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHGSP HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....NORTH CAROLINA : ROSN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :ROSMAN, NC FRENCH BROAD R. BLTN7 3.4/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BILTMORE, NC SWANNANOAH R. BIRN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BIRDTOWN, NC OCONALUFTEE R. .END $$  965 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHJAN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSISSIPPI : MEIM6 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.5 :MERIDIAN, MS SOWASHEE CREEK JCCM6 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS CANY CREEK JHMM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.8 :JACKSON, MS HANGING MOSS CREEK LYNM6 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS LYNCH CREEK TOWM6 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS TOWN CREEK UBCM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS EUBANKS CREEK .END $$  966 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHHUN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....HUNTSVILLE AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ALABAMA : FRYA1 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5 :FARLEY, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK SHEA1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :SHERWOOD, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK ATNA1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :ATHENS, AL LIMESTONE CREEK BPPA1 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.3 :BUCKS POCKET, AL S. SAUTY CREEK MADA1 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.3 :MADISON, AL INDIAN CREEK .END $$  974 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHRNK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....BLACKSBURG VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....VIRGINIA : SALV2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.0 :SALTVILLE, VA N.F. HOLSTON R. SGWN7 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.4/ 3.0 :SUGAR GROVE, NC WATAUGA R. SMFV2 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.5 :SEVEN MILE FORD, VA M.F. HOLSTON R. RLRV2 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 3.0 :RICHLANDS, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  975 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHLZK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....LITTLE ROCK AR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ARKANSAS : BTNA4 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.7 :BENTON, AR SALINE R. CIGA4 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.1 :CLINTON, AR S. FK LZKTLE RED R. HDYA4 3.5/ 4.7/ 5.5 :HARDY, AR SPRING R. .END $$  977 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHSHV HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....SHREVEPORT LA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....LOUISIANA : KEIL1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :KEITHVILLE, LA CYPRESS BAYOU .END $$  978 FOUS74 KORN 181315 FFHLSX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ST. LOUIS MO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 814 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181314 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSOURI : ANNM7 3.5/ 4.8/ 5.5 :ANNAPOLIS, MO BLACK R. .END $$  172 FOUS71 KRHA 181351 FFHNJ1 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 931 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181331/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA... : Ramapo River... MAWN4 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.3/ 3.7 :Mahwah (8ft) Ramapo River :MAWN4md 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.2 Mahwah (9) Ramapo River :MAWN4mj 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.4/ 5.9 Mahwah (12) Ramapo River : Hohokus Brook... HOHN4 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.6/ 3.6 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft) Hohokus Brook : Saddle River... LODN4 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.8 :Lodi (5.5ft) Saddle River :LODN4md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.6/ 3.6 Lodi (7) Saddle River :LODN4mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 4.1 Lodi (8) Saddle River : Rahway River... SPGN4 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.2 :Springfield (5.5ft) Rahway River : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : PASSAIC BASIN... : Passaic River... CAMN4 3.3/ 3.4/ 4.4/ 4.8 :Chatham (6ft) Passaic River :CAMN4md 5.4/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 7.0 Chatham (7.2) Passaic River :CAMN4mj 6.3/ 6.5/ 7.4/ 8.0 Chatham (8.2) Passaic River : Rockaway River... BOTN4 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 6.6 :Boonton Abv. (5ft) Rockaway River :BOTN4md 4.7/ 5.4/ 6.2/ 7.6 Boonton Abv. (6) Rockaway River :BOTN4mj 5.0/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 8.0 Boonton Abv. (7) Rockaway River : Whippany River... WHIN4 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 3.8 :Morristown (6ft) Whippany River : RARITAN BASIN.. : South Branch Raritan River... STTN4 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 5.0 :Stanton (8ft) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4md 3.2/ 3.7/ 5.0/ 6.0 Stanton (10) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4mj 3.4/ 4.0/ 5.7/ 6.9 Stanton (12) S. Br. Raritan River : North Branch Raritan River... RRTN4 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.4 :Raritan (10ft) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4md 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.2 Raritan (12) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4mj 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 5.0 Raritan (15) N. Br. Raritan River : Millstone River... BKWN4 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.6 :Blackwells Mills(9ft) Millstone River :BKWN4md 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 4.7 Blackwells Mills(10) Millstone River :BKWN4mj 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.9 Blackwells Mills(15) Millstone River : DELAWARE BASIN... : Assunpink Creek...TACN4 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.7 :Trenton (8.5ft) Assunpink Creek :TACN4md 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.3 Trenton (9.5) Assunpink Creek :TACN4mj 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.2 Trenton (11) Assunpink Creek .END $$ NNNN $$ NNNN  173 FOUS71 KRHA 181351 FFHPA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 931 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181331/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioughnioga River... CRTN6 1.6/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Cortland (8ft) :CRTN6md 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2 Cortland (10) :CRTN6mj 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.8 Cortland (12.5) : Chenango River... SHBN6 1.6/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Sherburne (8.5ft) :SHBN6md 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2 Sherburne (9) :SHBN6mj 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.7 Sherburne (10.6) : Otselic River... CINN6 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 :Cincinnatus (9ft) : ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table. : Cohocton River... CMPN6 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.6 :Campbell (8ft) :CMPN6md 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 3.2 Campbell (10) :CMPN6mj 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.6/ 3.7 Campbell (11) : Canisteo River... WCRN6 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.6 :West Cameron (17ft) :WCRN6md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.8 West Cameron (18) :WCRN6mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.5 West Cameron (21) : Towanda Creek... MONP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Monroeton (15.5ft) :MONP1md 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.8 Monroeton (17) :MONP1mj 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.3 Monroeton (18.5) : Tunkhannock Creek... TNKP1 1.8/ 1.8/ 2.2/ 2.2 :Tunkhannock (11ft) :TNKP1md 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 2.6 Tunkhannock (14) :TNKP1mj 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 3.1 Tunkhannock (17) : Lackawanna River... OFRP1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.8 :Old Forge (11ft) :OFRP1md 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1 Old Forge (13) :OFRP1mj 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4 Old Forge (16) : DELAWARE BASIN... : East Branch Delaware River... MRGN6 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.0 :Margaretville (11ft) :MRGN6md 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4/ 5.1 Margaretville (12) :MRGN6mj 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.5 Margaretville (13) : West Branch Delaware River... WALN6 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :Walton (11.5ft) :WALN6md 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.8 Walton (14) :WALN6mj 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.6 Walton (16) : Beaverkill Creek... CKFN6 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Cooks Falls (10ft) :CKFN6md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 4.6 Cooks Falls (16) :CKFN6mj 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.7 Cooks Falls (18) : Lackawaxen River... HWYP1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Hawley (14ft) :HWYP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.3 Hawley (20) :HWYP1mj 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 4.8 Hawley (22) : : NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioga River... MFDP1 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.9/ 3.2 :Mansfield (12ft) :MFDP1md 2.0/ 2.4/ 3.3/ 3.6 Mansfield (13) :MFDP1mj 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 4.1 Mansfield (14) : Penns Creek... PNCP1 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.2 :Penns Creek (8ft) :PNCP1md 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.1 Penns Creek (10) :PNCP1mj 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.8 Penns Creek (12) : Frankstown Branch Juniata River... WIBP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.2 :Williamsburg (12ft) :WIBP1md 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.3 Williamsburg (13) :WIBP1mj 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.6 Williamsburg (15) : Little Juniata River... SPKP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.3 :Spruce Creek (8ft) :SPKP1md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.6 Spruce Creek (10) :SPKP1mj 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.5 Spruce Creek (14) : Aughwick Creek... SLYP1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.6 :Shirleysburg (10ft) :SLYP1md 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.0 Shirleysburg (12) :SLYP1mj 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 7.3 Shirleysburg (20) : Sherman Creek... SMDP1 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.2 :Shermans Dale (9ft) :SMDP1md 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 3.7 Shermans Dale (11) :SMDP1mj 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 5.7 Shermans Dale (16) : Conodoguinet Creek... HGSP1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 3.8 :Hogestown (8ft) :HGSP1md 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.7/ 5.1 Hogestown (10) :HGSP1mj 4.2/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 5.9 Hogestown (12) : Yellow Breeches Creek... CPHP1 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.6 :Camp Hill (7ft) :CPHP1md 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 4.1 Camp Hill (9) :CPHP1mj 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.9/ 5.1 Camp Hill (13) : Swatara Creek... HTVP1 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.9 :Harper Tavern (9ft) :HTVP1md 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.5 Harper Tavern (12) :HTVP1mj 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.1/ 4.2 Harper Tavern (15) : Conestoga River... LNCP1 2.2/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.6 :Lancaster (11ft) :LNCP1md 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.9 Lancaster (13) :LNCP1mj 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 4.4 Lancaster (15) : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... LGVP1 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.3 :Landingville (8ft) :LGVP1md 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.5 Landingville (12) :LGVP1mj 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.1/ 5.6 Landingville (14) : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... BREP1 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 5.7 :Berne (12ft) :BREP1md 5.4/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 7.1 Berne (14) :BREP1mj 6.4/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 8.0 Berne (16) : Bush Kill... SHOP1 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.4 :Shoemakers (6ft) :SHOP1md 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.3 Shoemakers (7) :SHOP1mj 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.8 Shoemakers (8) : Brodhead Creek... MNSP1 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 3.7 :Minisink Hills(10ft) :MNSP1md 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.2/ 4.1 Minisink Hills(12) :MNSP1mj 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.7/ 4.8 Minisink Hills(15) : Little Lehigh Creek...APAP1 4.3/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 6.0 :Allentown-10th (8ft) :APAP1md 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.3/ 7.6 Allentown-10th (10) :APAP1mj 6.3/ 6.8/ 7.4/ 8.0 Allentown-10th (12) : Perkiomen Creek... GRAP1 2.8/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.3 :Graterford (11ft) :GRAP1md 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.9 Graterford (13) :GRAP1mj 3.8/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 6.2 Graterford (16) : Neshaminy Creek... LNGP1 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Langhorne (9ft) :LNGP1md 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.5 Langhorne (10) :LNGP1mj 3.7/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.0 Langhorne (12) : Chester Creek... CHSP1 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.6 :Chester (8ft) :CHSP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4 Chester (10) :CHSP1mj 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.8/ 5.8 Chester (14) : West Branch Brandywine Creek... MODP1 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.0 :Modena (9ft) :MODP1md 5.8/ 6.0/ 6.5/ 6.8 Modena (10) :MODP1mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Modena (12) : East Branch Brandywine Creek... DWNP1 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6 :Downingtown (7ft) :DWNP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.7 Downingtown (9) :DWNP1mj 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.8 Downingtown (11) : Brandywine Creek... CDFP1 2.3/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.4 :Chadds Ford (9ft) :CDFP1md 2.7/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.1 Chadds Ford (11) :CDFP1mj 3.2/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.0 Chadds Ford (13) : Christina River... CHBD1 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.4 :Coochs Brdg(11ft) :CHBD1md 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 4.1 Coochs Brdg(12) :CHBD1mj 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 5.2 Coochs Brdg(13) : White Clay Creek... DPKD1 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.3 :Delaware Pk (13ft) :DPKD1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.3 Delaware Pk (15) :DPKD1mj 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.9 Delaware Pk (16.5) : Red Clay Creek... RCCD1 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7 :Wooddale (7ft) :RCCD1md 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.8 Wooddale (8.5) :RCCD1mj 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.8 Wooddale (10) .END :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... .B RHA 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181331/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages : Lackawanna River... ARHP1 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.3 :Archbald (8ft) :ARHP1md 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.2 Archbald (9) :ARHP1mj 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 6.3 Archbald (10) PKIP1 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6 :Scranton (12.5ft.) :PKIP1md 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.9 Scranton (14) :PKIP1mj 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.1 Scranton (15) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E ARHP1 20260518 DC2605181350/DH15/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.6/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5 .E PKIP1 20260518 DC2605181350/DH15/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8 $$ NNNN  175 FOUS71 KRHA 181351 FFHVA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE POTOMAC AND JAMES BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 931 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181331/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : POTOMAC BASIN... : North Branch Potomac River... KITM2 2.2/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 4.7/ 6.0 :Kitzmiller (9ft) :KITM2md 3.8/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Kitzmiller (11) :KITM2mj 5.8/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Kitzmiller (13) : Georges Creek... WSTM2 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.3 :Westernport (8ft) :WSTM2md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.6 Westernport (10) :WSTM2mj 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 5.8 Westernport (12) : South Branch Potomac River... FKLW2 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 4.1 :Franklin (7ft) :FKLW2md 3.1/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.3 Franklin (9) :FKLW2mj 3.7/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 6.6 Franklin (11) : South River... WAYV2 4.1/ 4.4/ 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.6 :Waynesboro (9.5ft) :WAYV2md 4.7/ 5.1/ 6.4/ 7.0/ 8.2 Waynesboro (11) :WAYV2mj 5.7/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Waynesboro (13) : North Fork Shenandoah River... COOV2 5.7/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.2 :Cootes Store (15ft) :COOV2md 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Cootes Store (18) :COOV2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Cootes Store (21) : Antietam Creek... SACM2 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.6 :Sharpsburg (8ft) :SACM2md 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.5 Sharpsburg (10) :SACM2mj 6.4/ 6.5/ 6.7/ 7.0/ 7.6 Sharpsburg (12) : Seneca Creek... DAWM2 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.9 :Dawsonville (7.5ft) :DAWM2md 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 7.1 Dawsonville (11) :DAWM2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.4 Dawsonville (16) : : NWS BLACKSBURG SERVICE AREA... : Maury River... BVSV2 3.6/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 7.0 :Buena Vista (17ft) :BVSV2cs 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 6.3 Buena Vista (13) :BVSV2md 3.9/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 6.7/ 7.4 Buena Vista (19) :BVSV2mj 4.1/ 5.1/ 6.2/ 7.1/ 7.8 Buena Vista (21) .END : :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : Rock Creek at Sherrill Drive., Washington DC .B RHA 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181331/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages RCKD2 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.4 :Washington, DC (7ft) :RCKD2md 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 4.8 Washington, DC (10) :RCKD2mj 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.6/ 6.6 Washington, DC (12) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E RCKD2 20260518 DC2605181350/DH15/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1 $$ NNNN  548 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHMKX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 MILWAUKEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : AFTW3 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7 :AFTON WI ROCK R BCHW3 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.6 :BLANCHARDVILLE WI E BR PECATONICA R BUNW3 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7 :BUNCOMBE WI GALENA R DARW3 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.3 :DARLINGTON WI PECATONICA R MTNW3 1.3/ 1.5/ 2.2 :MARTINTOWN WI PECATONICA R MAZW3 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :MAZOMANIE WI BLACK EARTH CR KINW3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :MILWAUKEE WI KINNICKINNIC R SEBW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3 :SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN R WKEW3 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4 :WAUKESHA WI FOX R WWTW3 3.5/ 3.8/ 3.9 :WAUWATOSA WI MENOMONEE R BLOW3 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2 :BELOIT WI TURTLE CR MFSW3 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :MENOMONEE FALLS WI MENOMONEE R OAKW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0 :SOUTH MILWAUKEE OAK CR .END $$  549 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHMPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 TWIN CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : SNCM5 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.4 :JORDAN MN SAND CR PNLM5 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.5 :PINE ISLAND MN MID FK ZUMBRO R PILM5 3.1/ 3.9/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN N B MID FK ZUMBRO R WGOM5 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5 :WANAMINGO MN NO FK ZUMBRO R .END $$  554 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHLOT HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : NBPI2 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.2 :CHICAGO IL N BR CHICAGO R CDCI2 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.6 :CHICAGO HEIGHTS IL DEER CR DRFI2 2.6/ 3.3/ 4.0 :DEERFIELD IL N BR CHICAGO R DEKI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DE KALB IL S BR KISHWAUKEE R DSPI2 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7 :DES PLAINES IL DES PLAINES R WLRI2 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.1 :DES PLAINES IL WELLER CR EMHI2 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :ELMHURST IL SALT CR FLSI2 2.7/ 3.3/ 3.7 :FLOSSMOOR IL BUTTERFIELD CR GLWI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.4 :GLENWOOD IL THORN CR GUNI2 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6 :GURNEE IL DES PLAINES R JHCI2 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.0 :JOLIET IL HICKORY CR LAFI2 2.6/ 3.3/ 4.0 :LAKE FOREST IL SKOKIE R NILI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NILES IL N BR CHICAGO R NBRI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NORTHBROOK IL W FK N BR CHICAGO R OAKI2 3.4/ 3.6/ 3.9 :OAK FOREST IL MIDLOTHIAN CR MCDI2 3.5/ 3.8/ 4.2 :PROSPECT HTS IL MCDONALD CR ALPI2 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.1 :ROCKFORD IL ALPINE DAM-KEITH CR LEVI2 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.8 :ROCKFORD IL LEVINGS LAKE PPLI2 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0 :ROCKFORD IL PAGE PARK LAKE ROLI2 2.9/ 3.4/ 3.9 :ROLLING MEADOWS IL SALT CR SCHI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :ST CHARLES IL FERSON CR SORI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :SHOREWOOD IL DU PAGE R THNI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :THORNTON IL THORN CR WHEI2 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6 :WHEELING IL BUFFALO CR WLSI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WILLOW SPRINGS IL FLAG CR YRKI2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.1 :YORKVILLE IL BLACKBERRY CR : : *** INDIANA HEADWATER POINTS *** : HDDI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DYER IN HART DITCH MNTI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.1 :MUNSTER IN HART DITCH LCMI3 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.8 :MUNSTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R PRTI3 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2 :PORTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R .END $$  555 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHILX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : BMII2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BLOOMINGTON IL SUGAR CR RLLI2 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3 :ROWELL IL SALT CR .END $$  556 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHLSX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 ST LOUIS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MISSOURI HEADWATER POINTS *** : EWNM7 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :EWING MO 5E NORTH FABIUS R EWMM7 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5 :EWING MO 1NNE MIDDLE FABIUS R PALM7 0.9/ 1.0/ 1.0 :PALMYRA MO NORTH R TAYM7 1.1/ 1.4/ 1.7 :TAYLOR MO S FABIUS R PMZM7 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :HOLLIDAY MO 2N MI FK SALT R TRYM7 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.5 :TROY MO CUIVRE R DRCM7 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2 :ST PETERS MO DARDENNE CR LSLM7 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0 :LAKE SAINT LOUIS PERUQUE CR - ABOVE LSTM7 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.5 :LAKE ST LOUIS MO PERUQUE CR CSNM7 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.7 :COOK STATION MO 1N MERAMEC R SEEM7 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.6 :STEELVILLE MO 2N MERAMEC R UNNM7 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.6 :UNION MO BOURBEUSE R BYRM7 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0 :BYRNESVILLE MO 2NNE BIG R .END $$  560 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHDMX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : AKWI4 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1 :ACKWORTH IA SOUTH R AMWI4 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.0 :AMES IA IOWAY CR BSSI4 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.8 :BUSSEY IA CEDAR CR DFMI4 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :DSM-EASTON FOUR MILE CR CLVI4 1.6/ 2.0/ 2.2 :CLIVE I-80/35 WALNUT CR DOSI4 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.3 :DSM-63RD ST WALNUT CR MCWI4 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :MASON CITY IA WINNEBAGO R .END $$  563 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHAPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 GAYLORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MICHIGAN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BVTM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BEAVERTON MI TOBACCO R MYFM4 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6 :MAYFIELD MI BOARDMAN R RUDM4 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.9 :RUDYARD MI PINE RIVER .END $$  564 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHARX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 LA CROSSE HYDRLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DEHI4 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.5 :DECORAH IA UPPER IOWA R DCHI4 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.3 :DORCHESTER IA UPPER IOWA R GRBI4 1.4/ 1.6/ 1.8 :GARBER IA TURKEY R : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : ASTM5 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.3 :AUSTIN WWTP MN CEDAR R DOBM5 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.7 :AUSTIN MN-21ST DOBBINS CR TRCM5 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.8 :AUSTIN MN-41 AV NW TURTLE CR HOUM5 1.4/ 1.6/ 1.8 :HOUSTON MN ROOT R LNSM5 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.4 :LANESBORO MN S BR ROOT R LANM5 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5 :LANSING MN CEDAR R PTNM5 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.6 :PRESTON MN S BR ROOT R RBCM5 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3 :ROCHESTER MN BEAR CR RCCM5 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6 :ROCHESTER MN CASCADE CR ROCM5 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.3 :ROCHESTER MN SILVER CR RCSM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.2 :HWY 14 ROCHESTER S FK ZUMBRO R RCHM5 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4 :ROCHESTER MN S FK ZUMBRO R WSPM5 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.4 :WHITEWATER ST.PK MFK WHITEWATER R ZUMM5 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.6 :ZUMBRO FALLS MN ZUMBRO R : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BTNW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.6 :BURTON WI GRANT R DDGW3 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7 :DODGE WI TREMPEALEAU R GMIW3 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8 :GAYS MILLS WI KICKAPOO R HILW3 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4 :HILLSBORO WWTP WI S BR BARABOO R LAFW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7 :LA FARGE WI KICKAPOO R NEIW3 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.6 :NEILLSVILLE WI BLACK R ONTW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1 :ONTARIO WI KICKAPOO R REAW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :READSTOWN WI KICKAPOO R RVLW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7 :ROCKVILLE WI 2E PLATTE R SOGW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3 :SOLDIERS GROVE WI KICKAPOO R STEW3 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2 :STEUBEN WI KICKAPOO R VIOW3 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.4 :VIOLA WI KICKAPOO R .END $$  568 FOUS73 KMSR 181400 FFHFGF HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181400 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : CSRM5 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6 :CAMPBELL MN 1W SO FK RABBIT R MALM5 3.2/ 3.7/ 3.7 :MALUNG MN 2NW ROSEAU R BLO SO FK : : *** NORTH DAKOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DWGN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DWIGHT ND 1NE ANTELOPE CR HGRN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :HILLSBORO ND GOOSE R LTRN8 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :LARIMORE ND 5ENE TURTLE R .END $$  320 FGUS74 KORN 181434 FFHMRX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....MORRISTOWN TN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....TENNESSEE : DOET1 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.5 :ELIZABETHTON, TN DOE R. RMTT1 3.5/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.4 :ROAN MOUNTAIN, TN DOE R. : :.....VIRGINIA : CLVV2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.9 :CLEVELAND, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  314 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHGSP HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....NORTH CAROLINA : ROSN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :ROSMAN, NC FRENCH BROAD R. BLTN7 3.4/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BILTMORE, NC SWANNANOAH R. BIRN7 3.5/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.0/ 6.5 :BIRDTOWN, NC OCONALUFTEE R. .END $$  315 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHHUN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....HUNTSVILLE AL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ALABAMA : FRYA1 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5 :FARLEY, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK SHEA1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3 :SHERWOOD, AL ALDRIDGE CREEK ATNA1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :ATHENS, AL LIMESTONE CREEK BPPA1 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.3 :BUCKS POCKET, AL S. SAUTY CREEK MADA1 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.3 :MADISON, AL INDIAN CREEK .END $$  316 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHFFC HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ATLANTA GA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....GEORGIA : ENGG1 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :NEW ENGLAND, GA LOOKOUT CREEK HWEG1 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.8 :HIAWASSEE, GA HIAWASSEE R. .END $$  317 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHLZK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....LITTLE ROCK AR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....ARKANSAS : BTNA4 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.7 :BENTON, AR SALINE R. CIGA4 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.1 :CLINTON, AR S. FK LZKTLE RED R. HDYA4 3.5/ 4.7/ 5.5 :HARDY, AR SPRING R. .END $$  318 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHJAN HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSISSIPPI : MEIM6 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.5 :MERIDIAN, MS SOWASHEE CREEK JCCM6 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS CANY CREEK JHMM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.8 :JACKSON, MS HANGING MOSS CREEK LYNM6 3.3/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS LYNCH CREEK TOWM6 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.5 :JACKSON, MS TOWN CREEK UBCM6 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.6 :JACKSON, MS EUBANKS CREEK .END $$  321 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHLSX HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....ST. LOUIS MO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....MISSOURI : ANNM7 3.5/ 4.8/ 5.5 :ANNAPOLIS, MO BLACK R. .END $$  322 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHSHV HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....SHREVEPORT LA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....LOUISIANA : KEIL1 3.5/ 4.1/ 4.4 :KEITHVILLE, LA CYPRESS BAYOU .END $$  323 FOUS74 KORN 181434 FFHRNK HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR HSA.....BLACKSBURG VA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA 934 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS. .B SIL 260518 Z DH12/DC2605181434 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF/PPDCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR 24HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : :.....VIRGINIA : SALV2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 3.1/ 4.0 :SALTVILLE, VA N.F. HOLSTON R. SGWN7 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8/ 2.4/ 3.0 :SUGAR GROVE, NC WATAUGA R. SMFV2 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.7/ 4.5 :SEVEN MILE FORD, VA M.F. HOLSTON R. RLRV2 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.1/ 3.0 :RICHLANDS, VA CLINCH R. .END $$  118 AWUS01 KWNH 181536 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-182134- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1135 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...southern/central Missouri through southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181534Z - 182134Z Summary...Heavy rainfall will likely continue through 21Z along and north of the I-44 corridor, with areas of flash flooding possible. Discussion...A mature, elongated MCS continues to provide areas of training thunderstorms along an axis from near Fort Scott, KS/Nevada, MO east-northeastward through Saint Louis Metro and into south-central Illinois. The MCS has become a bit more perpendicular to southwesterly low-level flow (around 40-45 kts at 850mb), supporting repeating/training convection. The elevated nature of the convection suggests seems to have limited rainfall rates to only around 1 inch/hr in a few spots. However, the persistence of convection (likely supported by an approaching shortwave from the Arkansas Ozarks) should likely continue reinforcing the mature cold pool and resulting in several more hours of occasionally heavy rainfall. While rain rates may not breach 1-hr FFG thresholds on a widespread basis, it appears possible that 2.5 inch/3-hr rates could be achieved at times along this axis. This should result in at least isolated flash flood potential - particularly in any low-lying and urban parts of the discussion area. Again, the rainfall/flash flood potential will likely continue through at least 21Z/4p CDT. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40018956 39938838 39348784 38518808 37868904 37189093 37139355 37549452 38229469 38749458 39069390 39649156  267 AWUS01 KWNH 181721 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-182320- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0184 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of Indiana, far southeast Illinois, and far southwest Ohio Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181720Z - 182320Z Summary...Flash flood potential is increasing especially across central and southern Indiana. Discussion...A mature convective complex was making steady eastward progress into western and central Indiana over the past hour per radar mosaic imagery. The southern flank of this MCS was oriented more of a WSW-ENE fashion over southern Illinois, leading to areas of training. Furthermore, a shortwave trough evident in satellite/objective analyses over northern Arkansas was helping to initiate convection along and south of the leading edge of the MCS, with several areas of mergers and 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates (per MRMS) estimated southwest of Terra Haute (just south of Effingham). The overall scenario for flash flooding will translate eastward through the afternoon, with occasional spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates where training/merging is most pronounced. The rates will fall on areas of wet soils from prior rainfall, with FFG thresholds of 1.5 inch/hr at risk of being exceeded on at least an isolated basis. Low-level flow drops off considerably with eastward extent into Ohio, which lends some doubt/uncertainty on eastward persistence of convection. Should the convective complex remain organized, slightly lower FFGs over Ohio would suggest a continued, yet isolated flash flood threat there. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...PAH... ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 40438600 40438459 40228421 39648397 39128462 38388651 38438819 39668793 40078728  627 AWUS01 KWNH 181846 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0185 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast Nebraska... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181845Z - 190000Z SUMMARY...Severe Super-cells will have significant moisture flux convergence to support localized rates over 2"/hr. Given compromised upper soil conditions, localized flash flooding conditions are considered possible in proximity to other severe weather hazards. DISCUSSION...SPC MCD 771 solidly describes the mesoscale setup to produce strong updrafts and super-cell structures through the afternoon period. Strong updrafts supported by MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg; while driven by steep/dry lapse rates are also being fed in the surface to boundary layer by well above average moisture values (CIRA LPW values are at period of record [2013-present] maximum values for most of the area). Values in the .75-1" range confirmed by surface Tds of upper 60s to low 70s are being advected at greater than 20-25kts into the front. Surface low west of KCNK has backed the flow slightly to increase surface moisture convergence/flux to very strong values. Combined through depth and IVT values are well over 1000 kg/m/s per CW3E plots. Convective initiation is occurring near the surface wave and southward through the cold front to around KGRD. Strong SRH will allow for convective mode for super-cell structures, likely with broad updrafts/downdrafts and given slight right turning, should reduce forward cell motions increasing residency time. Additionally, the isallobaric influences will further accelerate inflow and moisture flux convergence to overcome modest overall deep moisture (~1.5 TPW, currently), but will steadily increase to support 2"/hr rates...with HRRR 15-minute rainfall totals forecast in excess of 1.25", eventually reaching 1.5"/15 minutes by 22-23z time frame. As they mature along the front and toward the northeast, some left splitters and general northeast cell motions may allow for some overlap/repeating...so spots of 2-3" totals are becoming possible through 00z across NE KS into SE NEB. Given the recent heavy rainfall in the area, the 0-40cm soils have become much further saturated ranging from 50% to near 75% in far SE NEB. As such, FFG values are reduced with 1hr values less than 1.5" across much of NE KS, SE NEB, SW IA and N MO; with a narrow axis across Ottawa to Ness county that saw over 5" in spots. Given the scattered nature of the super-cells initially (before sunset) localized flash flooding is considered possible. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 40559578 40119531 39249571 38679693 38309783 38009886 38419904 39229789 39689744 40549667  995 FOUS62 KALR 181947 FFGSJU COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA 346 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. .B ALR 20260518 Z DH18/DC202605181946 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF :IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR ZONE NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== PRZ001 1.1/ 2.1/ 3.0 PRZ002 1.1/ 2.1/ 3.0 PRZ003 1.1/ 2.1/ 2.8 PRZ004 1.1/ 2.1/ 2.8 PRZ005 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ006 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ007 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ008 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ009 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ010 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ011 1.5/ 1.9/ 2.4 PRZ012 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 PRZ013 1.8/ 2.8/ 4.0 VIZ001 2.0/ 3.1/ 4.3 VIZ002 2.1/ 3.3/ 4.5 .END $$ S.E.R.F.C. 770-486-0028 or 770-282-2112 Regular Hours 6am-10pm Eastern Time After Hours Please Follow Callback Instructions  153 FOUS71 KRHA 181951 FFHNJ1 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR NEW JERSEY STREAMS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH18/DC2605181930/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : NWS BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA... : Ramapo River... MAWN4 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.7 :Mahwah (8ft) Ramapo River :MAWN4md 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.2 Mahwah (9) Ramapo River :MAWN4mj 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.4/ 6.0 Mahwah (12) Ramapo River : Hohokus Brook... HOHN4 1.8/ 2.1/ 2.6/ 3.6 :Ho-Ho-Kus (3ft) Hohokus Brook : Saddle River... LODN4 1.6/ 1.7/ 2.0/ 2.9 :Lodi (5.5ft) Saddle River :LODN4md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.6/ 3.7 Lodi (7) Saddle River :LODN4mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 4.2 Lodi (8) Saddle River : Rahway River... SPGN4 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.2 :Springfield (5.5ft) Rahway River : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : PASSAIC BASIN... : Passaic River... CAMN4 3.3/ 3.4/ 4.4/ 4.9 :Chatham (6ft) Passaic River :CAMN4md 5.4/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 7.0 Chatham (7.2) Passaic River :CAMN4mj 6.3/ 6.5/ 7.4/ 8.0 Chatham (8.2) Passaic River : Rockaway River... BOTN4 4.2/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 6.6 :Boonton Abv. (5ft) Rockaway River :BOTN4md 4.7/ 5.4/ 6.2/ 7.6 Boonton Abv. (6) Rockaway River :BOTN4mj 5.0/ 5.8/ 6.7/ 8.0 Boonton Abv. (7) Rockaway River : Whippany River... WHIN4 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 3.8 :Morristown (6ft) Whippany River : RARITAN BASIN.. : South Branch Raritan River... STTN4 3.1/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 5.1 :Stanton (8ft) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4md 3.2/ 3.7/ 5.0/ 6.0 Stanton (10) S. Br. Raritan River :STTN4mj 3.5/ 4.0/ 5.7/ 6.9 Stanton (12) S. Br. Raritan River : North Branch Raritan River... RRTN4 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.5 :Raritan (10ft) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4md 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.2 Raritan (12) N. Br. Raritan River :RRTN4mj 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 5.0 Raritan (15) N. Br. Raritan River : Millstone River... BKWN4 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.5 :Blackwells Mills(9ft) Millstone River :BKWN4md 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.6 Blackwells Mills(10) Millstone River :BKWN4mj 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.7 Blackwells Mills(15) Millstone River : DELAWARE BASIN... : Assunpink Creek...TACN4 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.7 :Trenton (8.5ft) Assunpink Creek :TACN4md 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 4.3 Trenton (9.5) Assunpink Creek :TACN4mj 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.2 Trenton (11) Assunpink Creek .END $$ NNNN $$ NNNN  154 FOUS71 KRHA 181951 FFHPA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH18/DC2605181930/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioughnioga River... CRTN6 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.0 :Cortland (8ft) :CRTN6md 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.4 Cortland (10) :CRTN6mj 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.6/ 3.0 Cortland (12.5) : Chenango River... SHBN6 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Sherburne (8.5ft) :SHBN6md 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2 Sherburne (9) :SHBN6mj 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.8 Sherburne (10.6) : Otselic River... CINN6 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1 :Cincinnatus (9ft) : ...moderate and major flood stages above rating table. : Cohocton River... CMPN6 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.6 :Campbell (8ft) :CMPN6md 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.3 Campbell (10) :CMPN6mj 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.6/ 3.8 Campbell (11) : Canisteo River... WCRN6 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.7 :West Cameron (17ft) :WCRN6md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.9 West Cameron (18) :WCRN6mj 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.5 West Cameron (21) : Towanda Creek... MONP1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Monroeton (15.5ft) :MONP1md 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.8 Monroeton (17) :MONP1mj 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.3 Monroeton (18.5) : Tunkhannock Creek... TNKP1 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.3 :Tunkhannock (11ft) :TNKP1md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.7 Tunkhannock (14) :TNKP1mj 2.2/ 2.3/ 3.0/ 3.1 Tunkhannock (17) : Lackawanna River... OFRP1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 :Old Forge (11ft) :OFRP1md 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.1 Old Forge (13) :OFRP1mj 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.4 Old Forge (16) : DELAWARE BASIN... : East Branch Delaware River... MRGN6 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.0 :Margaretville (11ft) :MRGN6md 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.5/ 5.2 Margaretville (12) :MRGN6mj 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.6/ 6.6 Margaretville (13) : West Branch Delaware River... WALN6 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :Walton (11.5ft) :WALN6md 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.8 Walton (14) :WALN6mj 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.6 Walton (16) : Beaverkill Creek... CKFN6 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Cooks Falls (10ft) :CKFN6md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.7/ 4.7 Cooks Falls (16) :CKFN6mj 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.5/ 5.8 Cooks Falls (18) : Lackawaxen River... HWYP1 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.1 :Hawley (14ft) :HWYP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.3 Hawley (20) :HWYP1mj 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 4.8 Hawley (22) : : NWS STATE COLLEGE SERVICE AREA... : SUSQUEHANNA BASIN... : Tioga River... MFDP1 1.9/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 3.2 :Mansfield (12ft) :MFDP1md 2.0/ 2.5/ 3.3/ 3.6 Mansfield (13) :MFDP1mj 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.8/ 4.1 Mansfield (14) : Penns Creek... PNCP1 2.8/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3 :Penns Creek (8ft) :PNCP1md 2.9/ 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.3 Penns Creek (10) :PNCP1mj 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 4.9 Penns Creek (12) : Frankstown Branch Juniata River... WIBP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.3 :Williamsburg (12ft) :WIBP1md 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.4 Williamsburg (13) :WIBP1mj 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 2.7 Williamsburg (15) : Little Juniata River... SPKP1 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.3 :Spruce Creek (8ft) :SPKP1md 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 2.7 Spruce Creek (10) :SPKP1mj 2.5/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.5 Spruce Creek (14) : Aughwick Creek... SLYP1 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6 :Shirleysburg (10ft) :SLYP1md 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.0 Shirleysburg (12) :SLYP1mj 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 7.3 Shirleysburg (20) : Sherman Creek... SMDP1 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.3 :Shermans Dale (9ft) :SMDP1md 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 3.8 Shermans Dale (11) :SMDP1mj 4.1/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 5.8 Shermans Dale (16) : Conodoguinet Creek... HGSP1 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 3.8 :Hogestown (8ft) :HGSP1md 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 5.1 Hogestown (10) :HGSP1mj 4.2/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 5.9 Hogestown (12) : Yellow Breeches Creek... CPHP1 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.7 :Camp Hill (7ft) :CPHP1md 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 4.1 Camp Hill (9) :CPHP1mj 2.9/ 3.2/ 4.0/ 5.2 Camp Hill (13) : Swatara Creek... HTVP1 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.9 :Harper Tavern (9ft) :HTVP1md 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.5 Harper Tavern (12) :HTVP1mj 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 4.3 Harper Tavern (15) : Conestoga River... LNCP1 2.2/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.6 :Lancaster (11ft) :LNCP1md 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 4.0 Lancaster (13) :LNCP1mj 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.4 Lancaster (15) : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... LGVP1 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.3 :Landingville (8ft) :LGVP1md 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.5 Landingville (12) :LGVP1mj 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.7 Landingville (14) : : NWS MT. HOLLY SERVICE AREA... : DELAWARE BASIN... : Schuylkill River... BREP1 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 5.7 :Berne (12ft) :BREP1md 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.6/ 7.1 Berne (14) :BREP1mj 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 8.0 Berne (16) : Bush Kill... SHOP1 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 3.5 :Shoemakers (6ft) :SHOP1md 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.4 Shoemakers (7) :SHOP1mj 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 4.8 Shoemakers (8) : Brodhead Creek... MNSP1 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 3.7 :Minisink Hills(10ft) :MNSP1md 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.2/ 4.1 Minisink Hills(12) :MNSP1mj 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.8/ 4.8 Minisink Hills(15) : Little Lehigh Creek...APAP1 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 6.0 :Allentown-10th (8ft) :APAP1md 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.4/ 7.6 Allentown-10th (10) :APAP1mj 6.4/ 6.9/ 7.4/ 8.0 Allentown-10th (12) : Perkiomen Creek... GRAP1 2.8/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.3 :Graterford (11ft) :GRAP1md 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 4.9 Graterford (13) :GRAP1mj 3.9/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 6.2 Graterford (16) : Neshaminy Creek... LNGP1 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6 :Langhorne (9ft) :LNGP1md 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.5 Langhorne (10) :LNGP1mj 3.8/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.1 Langhorne (12) : Chester Creek... CHSP1 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.7 :Chester (8ft) :CHSP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4 Chester (10) :CHSP1mj 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.8/ 5.8 Chester (14) : West Branch Brandywine Creek... MODP1 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.0 :Modena (9ft) :MODP1md 5.8/ 6.1/ 6.5/ 6.8 Modena (10) :MODP1mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Modena (12) : East Branch Brandywine Creek... DWNP1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6 :Downingtown (7ft) :DWNP1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.7 Downingtown (9) :DWNP1mj 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.8 Downingtown (11) : Brandywine Creek... CDFP1 2.3/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.4 :Chadds Ford (9ft) :CDFP1md 2.7/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.2 Chadds Ford (11) :CDFP1mj 3.2/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.0 Chadds Ford (13) : Christina River... CHBD1 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.4 :Coochs Brdg(11ft) :CHBD1md 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.1/ 4.1 Coochs Brdg(12) :CHBD1mj 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 5.3 Coochs Brdg(13) : White Clay Creek... DPKD1 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.4 :Delaware Pk (13ft) :DPKD1md 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.3 Delaware Pk (15) :DPKD1mj 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 6.0 Delaware Pk (16.5) : Red Clay Creek... RCCD1 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.2/ 3.8 :Wooddale (7ft) :RCCD1md 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.8 Wooddale (8.5) :RCCD1mj 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.8 Wooddale (10) .END :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS BINGHAMTON SERVICE AREA... .B RHA 260518 Z DH18/DC2605181930/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages : Lackawanna River... ARHP1 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.4 :Archbald (8ft) :ARHP1md 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 5.3 Archbald (9) :ARHP1mj 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 6.3 Archbald (10) PKIP1 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.6 :Scranton (12.5ft.) :PKIP1md 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.9 Scranton (14) :PKIP1mj 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 5.1 Scranton (15) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E ARHP1 20260518 DC2605181950/DH21/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.6/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.5/2.4/2.4 .E PKIP1 20260518 DC2605181950/DH21/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.7/1.7/1.7 $$ NNNN  155 FOUS71 KRHA 181951 FFHVA2 HEADWATER STATEMENT FOR THE POTOMAC AND JAMES BASINS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 330 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 APPROXIMATE 1/3/6/12-HR BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL (INCHES) REQUIRED TO CAUSE MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING AT THE INDICATED HEADWATER LOCATIONS. .B RHA 260518 Z DH18/DC2605181930/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR 12HR HEADWATER NAME :======= ==== ==== ==== ==== ==================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : POTOMAC BASIN... : North Branch Potomac River... KITM2 2.2/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 4.7 :Kitzmiller (9ft) :KITM2md 3.8/ 5.3/ 6.5/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (11) :KITM2mj 5.8/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Kitzmiller (13) : Georges Creek... WSTM2 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.5 :Westernport (8ft) :WSTM2md 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5 Westernport (10) :WSTM2mj 2.9/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.4 Westernport (12) : South Branch Potomac River... FKLW2 2.7/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6 :Franklin (7ft) :FKLW2md 3.2/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.6 Franklin (9) :FKLW2mj 3.7/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.6 Franklin (11) : South River... WAYV2 4.2/ 4.4/ 5.4/ 5.8 :Waynesboro (9.5ft) :WAYV2md 4.7/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 7.0 Waynesboro (11) :WAYV2mj 5.7/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.0 Waynesboro (13) : North Fork Shenandoah River... COOV2 5.8/ 6.4/ 7.2/ 7.4 :Cootes Store (15ft) :COOV2md 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (18) :COOV2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Cootes Store (21) : Antietam Creek... SACM2 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.2 :Sharpsburg (8ft) :SACM2md 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 6.0 Sharpsburg (10) :SACM2mj 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.7/ 7.0 Sharpsburg (12) : Seneca Creek... DAWM2 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3 :Dawsonville (7.5ft) :DAWM2md 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5 Dawsonville (11) :DAWM2mj 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 8.0 Dawsonville (16) : : NWS BLACKSBURG SERVICE AREA... : Maury River... BVSV2 3.7/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.4 :Buena Vista (17ft) :BVSV2cs 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 5.5 Buena Vista (13) :BVSV2md 3.9/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 6.8 Buena Vista (19) :BVSV2mj 4.1/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 7.2 Buena Vista (21) .END : :=============================================================== : EXPERIMENTAL NON-FCST POINT RAW MODEL OUTPUT : NO MANUAL QC OR ADJUSTMENTS APPLIED...USE WITH CAUTION :=============================================================== : : NWS STERLING SERVICE AREA... : Rock Creek at Sherrill Drive., Washington DC .B RHA 260518 Z DH18/DC2605181930/DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF/PPKCF :GageID 1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr rainfall for indicated stages RCKD2 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.5 :Washington, DC (7ft) :RCKD2md 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.6 Washington, DC (10) :RCKD2mj 3.2/ 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.7 Washington, DC (12) .END : Model-simulated 3-hourly stage forecasts including QPF... .E RCKD2 20260518 DC2605181950/DH21/HGIFX/DIH3/ .E1 2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1/2.1 $$ NNNN  717 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHLSX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 ST LOUIS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MISSOURI HEADWATER POINTS *** : EWNM7 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.1 :EWING MO 5E NORTH FABIUS R EWMM7 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :EWING MO 1NNE MIDDLE FABIUS R PALM7 0.7/ 1.0/ 1.0 :PALMYRA MO NORTH R TAYM7 0.9/ 1.2/ 1.5 :TAYLOR MO S FABIUS R PMZM7 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7 :HOLLIDAY MO 2N MI FK SALT R TRYM7 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :TROY MO CUIVRE R DRCM7 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.2 :ST PETERS MO DARDENNE CR LSLM7 0.8/ 1.0/ 1.1 :LAKE SAINT LOUIS PERUQUE CR - ABOVE LSTM7 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :LAKE ST LOUIS MO PERUQUE CR CSNM7 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.5 :COOK STATION MO 1N MERAMEC R SEEM7 1.0/ 1.1/ 1.3 :STEELVILLE MO 2N MERAMEC R UNNM7 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8 :UNION MO BOURBEUSE R BYRM7 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6 :BYRNESVILLE MO 2NNE BIG R .END $$  719 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHLOT HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : NBPI2 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.0 :CHICAGO IL N BR CHICAGO R CDCI2 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.0 :CHICAGO HEIGHTS IL DEER CR DRFI2 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.8 :DEERFIELD IL N BR CHICAGO R DEKI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DE KALB IL S BR KISHWAUKEE R DSPI2 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3 :DES PLAINES IL DES PLAINES R WLRI2 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.6 :DES PLAINES IL WELLER CR EMHI2 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.2 :ELMHURST IL SALT CR FLSI2 2.3/ 2.8/ 3.3 :FLOSSMOOR IL BUTTERFIELD CR GLWI2 3.0/ 3.5/ 3.8 :GLENWOOD IL THORN CR GUNI2 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.2 :GURNEE IL DES PLAINES R JHCI2 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.5 :JOLIET IL HICKORY CR LAFI2 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.9 :LAKE FOREST IL SKOKIE R NILI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NILES IL N BR CHICAGO R NBRI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :NORTHBROOK IL W FK N BR CHICAGO R OAKI2 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.4 :OAK FOREST IL MIDLOTHIAN CR MCDI2 3.1/ 3.4/ 3.8 :PROSPECT HTS IL MCDONALD CR ALPI2 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.8 :ROCKFORD IL ALPINE DAM-KEITH CR LEVI2 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.6 :ROCKFORD IL LEVINGS LAKE PPLI2 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.8 :ROCKFORD IL PAGE PARK LAKE ROLI2 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.4 :ROLLING MEADOWS IL SALT CR SCHI2 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.2 :ST CHARLES IL FERSON CR SORI2 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.0 :SHOREWOOD IL DU PAGE R THNI2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :THORNTON IL THORN CR WHEI2 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.1 :WHEELING IL BUFFALO CR WLSI2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :WILLOW SPRINGS IL FLAG CR YRKI2 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7 :YORKVILLE IL BLACKBERRY CR : : *** INDIANA HEADWATER POINTS *** : HDDI3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.2 :DYER IN HART DITCH MNTI3 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7 :MUNSTER IN HART DITCH LCMI3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4 :MUNSTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R PRTI3 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :PORTER IN LITTLE CALUMET R .END $$  720 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHAPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 GAYLORD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MICHIGAN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BVTM4 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BEAVERTON MI TOBACCO R MYFM4 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7 :MAYFIELD MI BOARDMAN R RUDM4 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.2 :RUDYARD MI PINE RIVER .END $$  721 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHILX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 LINCOLN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** ILLINOIS HEADWATER POINTS *** : BMII2 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :BLOOMINGTON IL SUGAR CR RLLI2 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.5 :ROWELL IL SALT CR .END $$  730 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHMKX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 MILWAUKEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : AFTW3 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.6 :AFTON WI ROCK R BCHW3 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.7 :BLANCHARDVILLE WI E BR PECATONICA R BUNW3 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.8 :BUNCOMBE WI GALENA R DARW3 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.4 :DARLINGTON WI PECATONICA R MTNW3 1.5/ 1.7/ 2.2 :MARTINTOWN WI PECATONICA R MAZW3 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0 :MAZOMANIE WI BLACK EARTH CR KINW3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :MILWAUKEE WI KINNICKINNIC R SEBW3 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.2 :SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN R WKEW3 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3 :WAUKESHA WI FOX R WWTW3 3.5/ 3.7/ 3.8 :WAUWATOSA WI MENOMONEE R BLOW3 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.1 :BELOIT WI TURTLE CR MFSW3 0.5/ 1.0/ 1.0 :MENOMONEE FALLS WI MENOMONEE R OAKW3 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.0 :SOUTH MILWAUKEE OAK CR .END $$  733 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHFGF HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : CSRM5 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7 :CAMPBELL MN 1W SO FK RABBIT R MALM5 3.0/ 3.5/ 3.6 :MALUNG MN 2NW ROSEAU R BLO SO FK : : *** NORTH DAKOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DWGN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :DWIGHT ND 1NE ANTELOPE CR HGRN8 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.5 :HILLSBORO ND GOOSE R LTRN8 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :LARIMORE ND 5ENE TURTLE R .END $$  736 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHMPX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 TWIN CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : SNCM5 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.4 :JORDAN MN SAND CR PNLM5 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.5 :PINE ISLAND MN MID FK ZUMBRO R PILM5 3.2/ 4.0/ 4.5 :PINE ISLAND MN N B MID FK ZUMBRO R WGOM5 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.5 :WANAMINGO MN NO FK ZUMBRO R .END $$  739 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHARX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 LA CROSSE HYDRLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : DEHI4 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6 :DECORAH IA UPPER IOWA R DCHI4 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.3 :DORCHESTER IA UPPER IOWA R GRBI4 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.9 :GARBER IA TURKEY R : : *** MINNESOTA HEADWATER POINTS *** : ASTM5 1.8/ 2.0/ 2.4 :AUSTIN WWTP MN CEDAR R DOBM5 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.7 :AUSTIN MN-21ST DOBBINS CR TRCM5 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.9 :AUSTIN MN-41 AV NW TURTLE CR HOUM5 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.8 :HOUSTON MN ROOT R LNSM5 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.4 :LANESBORO MN S BR ROOT R LANM5 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6 :LANSING MN CEDAR R PTNM5 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.6 :PRESTON MN S BR ROOT R RBCM5 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.4 :ROCHESTER MN BEAR CR RCCM5 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.7 :ROCHESTER MN CASCADE CR ROCM5 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.3 :ROCHESTER MN SILVER CR RCSM5 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.3 :HWY 14 ROCHESTER S FK ZUMBRO R RCHM5 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.4 :ROCHESTER MN S FK ZUMBRO R WSPM5 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.5 :WHITEWATER ST.PK MFK WHITEWATER R ZUMM5 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.6 :ZUMBRO FALLS MN ZUMBRO R : : *** WISCONSIN HEADWATER POINTS *** : BTNW3 1.6/ 1.7/ 1.7 :BURTON WI GRANT R DDGW3 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8 :DODGE WI TREMPEALEAU R GMIW3 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9 :GAYS MILLS WI KICKAPOO R HILW3 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4 :HILLSBORO WWTP WI S BR BARABOO R LAFW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.8 :LA FARGE WI KICKAPOO R NEIW3 1.8/ 2.2/ 2.7 :NEILLSVILLE WI BLACK R ONTW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.1 :ONTARIO WI KICKAPOO R REAW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.5 :READSTOWN WI KICKAPOO R RVLW3 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.9 :ROCKVILLE WI 2E PLATTE R SOGW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.4 :SOLDIERS GROVE WI KICKAPOO R STEW3 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.2 :STEUBEN WI KICKAPOO R VIOW3 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4 :VIOLA WI KICKAPOO R .END $$  741 FOUS73 KMSR 182000 FFHDMX HEADWATER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AVERAGE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR GIVEN DURATIONS REQUIRED TO INITIATE FLASH FLOODING AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. .B MSR 260518 Z DH18/DC2605182000 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF : :IDENT 1HR 3HR 6HR HEADWATER NAME STREAM :======= ==== ==== ==== ==================== ================== : : *** IOWA HEADWATER POINTS *** : AKWI4 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2 :ACKWORTH IA SOUTH R AMWI4 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1 :AMES IA IOWAY CR BSSI4 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.1 :BUSSEY IA CEDAR CR DFMI4 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.7 :DSM-EASTON FOUR MILE CR CLVI4 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.3 :CLIVE I-80/35 WALNUT CR DOSI4 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.4 :DSM-63RD ST WALNUT CR MCWI4 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.7 :MASON CITY IA WINNEBAGO R .END $$  184 AWUS01 KWNH 182056 FFGMPD KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 455 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Southern MO...Southern IL...Southern IND...Adj. Northwestern KY... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 182100Z - 190245Z SUMMARY...Continued over-running redevelopment within favorable repeating/training flow regime will continue potential for 1.5-2"/hr rates and additional 2-3" streaks in proximity to areas currently flooding or approaching. As such, localized incidents of new or renewed flash flooding are likely through evening. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 21z surface analysis denotes the main push of the squall line and stronger thunderstorms from the Lower Peninsula of MI across NW OH into far SE IND before the boundary orients more parallel to the deeper steering flow aloft and acts more of an outflow boundary and isentropic ascent surface from around KBAK, IND across IL passing KLWV to KMVN before passing KFAM, TBN across S MO and fading to the mean environment just north of KFSK in E KS. South of which broad south to southwesterly flow with unseasonably high (ten-year climo maximum, per CIRA LPW) low level moisture with Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s along the length. CIRA LPW notes that the surface to 850mb layer is very broad back into the central Plains, but the keep to the higher moisture flux occurs with the core of the 850-700 and 700-500mb layers over eastern AR through southern IL resulting in total PWats at or just above 2" across S IL with 1.75" extending back through the Ozark plateau. While GOES-E WV suite shows the main shortwave/vorticity center exiting across the central Great Lakes (aiding forward propagating squall line across OH), there does remain favorable divergence aloft within the right entrance of the jet across N MO into a 90 kt speed max across WI; which continues to drive the broad and generally confluent LLJ to maximize convergence along the upwind edge of the outflow boundary. RAP analysis still shows a source of 1500-2000 J/kg across the Ozark Plateau into S IL; though with some capping remaining. The convergence along the isentropic surface still aids scattered convective initiation and maintenance from south-central MO. This will continue to develop in the favorable ascent regime and with ample deep layer moisture should remain fairly effective with 1.75"/hr rates occasionally increasing to 2" with strongest updrafts. As noted above, the deep layer steering flow remains parallel to the ascent plane and only subtly south of the earlier axis of convective activity. The overlap with the saturated/actively flooding areas of southern MO into S IL and SW IND, have a solid potential of renewing localized flash flooding through the evening as the core of the warm conveyor belt and mid to upper-level forcing shift eastward. Streaks of additional 2-3" totals (isolated locally 4" psbl) may further expand the risk of inducing new incidents of flash flooding further south of the initial axis as well. This may also affect some flash flood prone urban centers along the Ohio River as well, if cold pool/outflow generation is stronger than currently forecast...so have included portions of NW KY and extended the MPD, though the band is more likely to remain north. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 39918552 39138483 38298507 37758607 37238839 37059076 37249252 37589377 38139360 39039122 39388880 39748743  077 AWUS01 KWNH 182302 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 701 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Southwest IA...Southeast NEB...Northwest MO...Central & Northeast KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 182300Z - 190500Z SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence will help to spur upscale growth from individual supercells to larger clusters with increasing rainfall potential and coverage. Rates of 2"/hr+ and localized totals of 2-4" (isolated 5"), especially across areas recently saturated are likely to result in increasing incidents of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...22z surface analysis and RADAR mosaic have changed very little over the last few hours though the dryline has surged out of the OK/TX panhandles and helped concentrate southerly moist flux to expand convective initiation well into south-central KS. Main clusters of supercells have are at bit more progressive out of southeast NEB with some eastward turning and increasing coverage and has started to move out of MPD 185 area of concern into SW IA and far NW MO. Additionally, the remainder of the cold front from the northern inflection E of Lincoln, NEB and secondary low near Salina, KS has filled in with broadening up/downdrafts; as such total PWats have increased along the cold front as the total column moistens with this increasing coverage. Tds in the 70s and sub-boundary layer LPW values near 1" along with 20-30kts of southerly flow continue to provide strong moisture flux to encourage increasing rainfall efficiency over the next few hours. GOES-E WV shows the upper level jet streak is currently rounding the base of the negative tilt up-level trof over the Northern Plains and as a result, upper level divergence pattern will further increase over the next few hours within strengthening DPVA and right entrance ascent patterns across the frontal zone. This should support further upscale growth of the cells toward clusters as we near sunset. Cold pool generation, right-turning supercells, should support further storm-scale interaction for more eastward propagation allowing some increased short-term training/repeating (as noted with clusters in NW MO already). As such localized streaks of 2-4" totals will become more likely. Across the MPD area a broadening/divergent of the 500-1000 thickness fields suggests east to southeast forward propagation with time as well; increasing orthogonal flanking line intersection to expand back-building potential. This slowing/turning could be the greatest further south along the upstream edge near the nose of the dryline/cold front where steering flow is just a tad weaker overall aloft and support longer residency times. Of course, south-central KS will require this longer residency given the area has missed out on the complexes/heavy rainfall over the weekend. While severe/tornadic hazards remain the primary concern currently, this will transition toward flash flooding and given the majority of the area (north of 38.5N latitude) has FFG values at or below the hourly expected rates (1-1.75"/hr) and generally less than 2.5"/3hrs. As such, incidents of flash flooding will become more likely and with greater overall coverage. Hi-Res CAMs including the WoFS/HRRR continue to suggest very intense sub-hourly totals (1.5"/15 minutes per HRRR) and isolated totals of 5". Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 41899371 41709307 41259253 40579249 40039284 39029379 38049551 37489790 37969841 38759779 40729682 41509594 41829502