382 

ABNT20 KNHC 221713

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:



Northeastern Atlantic:

A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the 

northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of 

Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical 

characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves 

east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern 

Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development 

should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable 

environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas 

Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Central Subtropical Atlantic:

A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical 

Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing 

disorganized shower activity. Development of this system, if any, is 

expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward through Sunday 

and then accelerates northward early next week. By the middle of 

next week, the system could merge with a frontal boundary over the 

north Atlantic, which should diminish any remaining chances of 

development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 

Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the 

wave soon after it moves off the coast. Environmental conditions are 

marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression 

could form by the middle to latter portions of next week while the 

system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 

tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 

header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at 

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt



$$

Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi






525 

ABPZ20 KNHC 221716

TWOEP 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026



For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 

Lala, located north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 

Monument, and on Tropical Storm Moke, located about 450 miles 

southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.



Southwest of Mexico (EP92):

Showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming better organized in 

association with a broad area of low pressure located several 

hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California 

Peninsula.  However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicates 

that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. 

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for development, and a 

tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Sunday 

as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Central East Pacific (EP91):

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad 

area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the 

southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.  Environmental 

conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 

depression could form before it interacts with, or merges with the 

disturbance to its east (EP92) late this weekend or early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:

Another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of 

the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle 

portion of next week.  Some slow development is expected thereafter, 

and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while 

the system moves generally west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



$$

Forecaster Hagen