641 AXPZ20 KNHC 170314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 15.2N 102.5W at 17/0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Max seas are around 32 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 106W. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward speed is expected overnight and into Saturday. This general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Steady strengthening is possible through Saturday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Simon and Trudy. Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over northern Mexico and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale- force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be around 45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 17 ft from Sat afternoon through Sun night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N88W and to 11N94W and then from 10N101W to 05N115W and to 05N129W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found south of 09N and east of 91W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and between 105W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section, recent satellite imagery depict the remnant low of Simon just southwest of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are occurring off Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 16.3N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.7N 104.4W Sat evening, 19.0N 105.3W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes, 20.0N 106.1W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.6N 106.8W Mon morning, and 20.9N 107.6W Mon evening. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low over 21.3N 108.8W late Tue over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is ongoing. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Finally looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance is low through 48 hours, and high through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds across the offshore waters. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands associated with a long-period cross-equatorial swell. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind event will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W portion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. Large to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the Tehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also impact this zone from Sat night through Tue night. Large SW swell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. Finally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over at least the next two days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure north of the basin forces moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds north of 10N and east of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the next few days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually diminishing by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach our northern border on Tue. While winds should only be moderate or fresh behind the front, large NW swell will accompany the front through mid-week. $$ Delgado