872 AXPZ20 KNHC 231010 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains active. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two tropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone development offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are Invest areas EP91 and EP92. Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form today as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the Jalisco outer offshores today, and near gale-force to gale-force winds and rough seas to the Baja California Sur outer offshore waters tonight into Tue. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could support the development of a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before it interacts or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92). This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N to 17N with axis near 99W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 16N between 96W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 14N115W to 06N131W. The ITCZ begins near 06N131W and continues beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 14N E of 93W, and from 00N to 08N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continue to dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte while lower pressure associated with Invest EP92 dominates the Baja California Sur offshores. Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are ongoing across the Baja California Norte offshores while fresh to strong winds and rough seas are already affecting the outer Jalisco and Baja California Sur offshore waters. A surface trough along the Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte today, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will become fresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf of California today. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP92 will continue to affect the Jalisco and Baja California Sur outer offshore waters through at least Tue with gale-force winds likely affecting the Revillagigedo Islands tonight into Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure of 1025 mb located near 40N135W extends a ridge southeastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of Baja California Norte, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 26N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, EP92, described above, is forecast to bring at least gale-force winds and rough seas to the immediate waters adjacent to the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshores. Little change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere. $$ Ramos  854 AXNT20 KNHC 231053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the southern portion of the wave axis from 05N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 18N to 20N between the wave and 48W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 16N, including over some sections of the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of 21N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the basin, numerous strong convection is just offshore Costa Rica and northern Panama. Some of this activity extends inland northern Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and west-southwestward to 08N32W and to 07N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 10N48W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 19W-21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high center over the west-central Gulf, is generally allowing for gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations and a couple of overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain quite active over the Yucatan Peninsula and over southeastern Mexico. Abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific is advecting eastward over southern Mexico, the southwestern Gulf and toward the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. Atlantic high pressure will then build westward into the central Gulf afterward. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as detected in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central part of the basin from 13N to 19N between 68W and 70W, and over the waters between Jamaica and Haiti, reaching to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between thewestern Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean near 63W will move across the basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds after their passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near these waves may be capable of producing strong gusty winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is over the majority of the Atlantic waters. It is on the weak side over the western half of the basin. A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 29N70W. To its east, a surface trough extends from near 31N58.5W to a weak 1018 mb low pressure at 30N59W, and continues from the low pressure to 27N61W. This system is part of a broad low pressure area that is located a few hundred nautical miles SE of Bermuda. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present N of 24N between 55W and 63W. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are east of the trough to near 50W while light and variable winds are west of the trough to near 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of about 50W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad 1027 mb high pressure that is analyzed N of he region at 36N42.5W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 25N east of 50W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A cold front extends from near 31N17W to 30N45W, and continues northwestward from there to near 33N35W. Broken to overcast low to mid-level clouds along with possible isolated showers are along and near the frontal boundary. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Aguirre