880 

AXPZ20 KNHC 221003

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0950 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...



Southwest of Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located

several hundred miles SW of the coast of SW Mexico is producing 

a large area of disorganized showers and tstms. This system is 

moving WNW and is likely to become a tropical depression by the 

end of this weekend or early next week before it interacts, or 

possibly merges with, the disturbance to its west (EP91). This 

system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through

48 hrs, and a high chance through 7 days. 



Central East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure 

located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the 

Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and 

thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 

gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the

end of this weekend before it interacts, or possibly merges 

with, the disturbance to its east (EP92). This system has a 

medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and 

a medium chance through 7 days.



Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 

website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more 

details on these systems.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical 

Pacific basin with axis along 94W, N of 03N, moving westward at 

15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 

from 03N to 17N between 90W and 102W. 



A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 108W,

moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 

convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 100W and 114W. This

wave is associated with Invest EP92 discussed in the Special

Features section above.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N140W. 

Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described

above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

observed from 03N to 09N E of 90W, and from 04N to 13N between

113W and 130W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. 

Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of 

California. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with

a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports 

fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 

downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. 

Fresh E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico 

associated with Invest EP92.



For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse

to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight

into the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas 

occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate 

the offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend 

supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow 

will return to the Gulf of California tonight and become fresh 

to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf on

Sun. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build across the

outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next 

week in association with a developing area of low pressure, EP92, 

moving west-northwestward and just outside of the offshore 

waters.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo 

region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 

Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas 

in S swell. 



For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf

of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading

to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo

region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending

well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore 

of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid next week. South of the

monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist 

through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from 

the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves 

section above for information on systems that have the potential

for tropical cyclone formation. 



High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward

into the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh 

easterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of Tropical 

Storm Moke in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters

between 12N to 25N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally

fresh winds are found between 104W and 112W, from the outer 

border of the SW Mexican offshores to the monsoon with moderate 

to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas

in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.



For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the

features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds 

and seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W

this weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions

elsewhere.



$$

Ramos






420 

AXNT20 KNHC 221010

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south 

of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and

27W.



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 

20N  moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is

noted near the wave axis.



Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W 

south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No 

significant convection is noted near the wave axis.



A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 

20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with

this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of

Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East

Pacific monsoon trough is present.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and

westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions

to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with

the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within

about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin

as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This 

pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas 

of 2 to 3 ft throughout.



A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to 

just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section 

while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north-

central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to 

southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off 

additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and 

tonight.



For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the 

central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week.

Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 

to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface 

trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west 

of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will 

spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough 

migrates into the SW Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 

western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South 

America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the 

south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with

these winds as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data 

passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate 

moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state 

with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest 

part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft.



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern

Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the

Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part 

of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras

and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 

13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue

to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas 

primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. 

Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along 

with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in 

the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades 

will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently 

over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern 

Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of 

the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical 

wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean 

late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across 

those waters. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending

southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from

the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other

troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from 

near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain

active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main 

feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime 

throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A 

rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle 

winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to

fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of

26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter 

data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher 

seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where 

mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring.



For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will 

support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 

about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are 

expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds 

off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, 

the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across

the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week 

freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another 

tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and 

Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. 



$$

Aguirre






061 

AXNT20 KNHC 221047

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1030 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south 

of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 

isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and

27W.



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 

20N  moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is

noted near the wave axis.



Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W 

south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No 

significant convection is noted near the wave axis.



A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 

20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with

this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of

Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East

Pacific monsoon trough is present.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and

westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions

to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with

the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within

about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin

as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This 

pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas 

of 2 to 3 ft throughout.



A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to 

just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section 

while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north-

central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to 

southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off 

additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and 

tonight.



For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the 

central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week.

Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 

to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface 

trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west 

of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will 

spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough 

migrates into the SW Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 

western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South 

America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the 

south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with 

these trades as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. 

Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to 

fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these 

trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the 

basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft.



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern

Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the

Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part 

of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras

and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 

13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue

to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas 

primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. 

Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along 

with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in 

the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades 

will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently 

over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern 

Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of 

the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical 

wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean 

late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across 

those waters. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending

southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from

the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other

troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from 

near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain

active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main 

feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime 

throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A 

rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle 

winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to

fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of

26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter 

data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher 

seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where 

mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring.



For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will 

support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 

about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are 

expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds 

off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, 

the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across

the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week 

freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another 

tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and 

Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. 



$$

Aguirre