882 WTPA42 PHFO 231434 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 The presentation of Tropical Storm Lala has not changed much on infrared satellite imagery over the past six hours, with deep convection limited to the south and eastern semicircles. Subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T3.5/55 kt, and objective intensity estimates are closer to 50 kt. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which could be generous but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters. Lala appears to have slightly decelerated on a west-northwestward heading (300/4 kt), as it is steered by a weak mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands. The tropical storm should continue on a generally west-northwestward to northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period as the ridge slides eastward. Lala's forward motion is not expected to change much, and remain somewhat slow. The track guidance this cycle remains in decent agreement on this scenario, though there continues to be some cross-track spread, with the GFS presenting a more eastward solution and the Google Deep Mind showing a more westward solution. The updated track forecast is again slightly slower than the previous one, and is again nudged westward toward the latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). The waters near the tropical storm are around 26C, with light shear and dry mid-level air. The shear and mid-level moisture are not likely to change much through the forecast period, so Lala should only weaken gradually as it moves over progressively cooler waters. Cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, which increase tropospheric instability, could counter some of the effect, at least initially, of the sea surface temperatures. By 120 h, Lala is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery and the large-scale environmental diagnostics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) guidance. The new intensity forecast is consistent with the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 32.1N 173.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 32.5N 174.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.1N 174.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.8N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 34.3N 176.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 34.9N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.6N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.2N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 39.1N 178.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake  154 WTPA43 PHFO 231444 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Moke continues to pulse some convection in the northern semicircle, though much of the southern portion of the storm is exposed due to persistent shear. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt given little change in the overall organization of the cyclone during the past several hours. This is also in agreement with earlier aircraft data and close to recent Dvorak estimates. The storm is expected to move through a challenging environment during the next several days, with plentiful mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path. These conditions will likely beat out the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke should struggle to produce sustained deep convection in this regime. Shear is forecast to increase in 2-3 days, and the storm is expected to weaken into a tropical depression or remnant low around that time. The new forecast is a bit lower than the last one late in the period and shows an earlier transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It should be mentioned that more models are now showing the system opening up into a trough of low pressure even earlier than shown below due to the harsh environment and Moke's forward speed. Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt, wobbling a bit as convective bursts briefly pull the system north of due west. A general west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island today and then well south of the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The model guidance is a bit south of the last forecast, and the NHC track is moved in that direction. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.2N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake