815 

ACUS11 KWNS 152308

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 152308 

INZ000-ILZ000-160015-



Mesoscale Discussion 2380

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0608 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026



Areas affected...far southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 152308Z - 160015Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...The potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two

should be maximized over the next couple of hours across far

southeast IL into southern IN.



DISCUSSION...KVWX/KIND radars show a broken line of strong/severe

storms near the IL/IN border. Located near the intersection of a

low-level surface trough and warm front, convection has gradually

intensified over the last hour. Low-level rotation and supercell

structures have been observed, though the overall convective mode is

a mixture of cells and linear clusters. The environment downstream

remains supportive of strong/severe storms this evening with

damaging gusts the most likely hazard.



Low-level rotation has increased over the last 15 min with several

embedded mesocyclones. The KVWX VAD shows substantial veering in the

lowest 1-2km with 0-500m SRH above 250 m2/s2 near the front. This

and an STP of 1-2 will support the potential for a tornado or two

with any stronger supercell structures or QLCS segments as they

approach the frontal zone.



The loss of diurnal heating and storm motions will eventually move

convection into more stable air this evening. This suggests the

greatest severe threat is likely over the next couple of hours.



..Lyons/Smith.. 10/15/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...



LAT...LON   38528822 39168760 39328663 39298605 39158560 38938540

            38628557 38428618 38298735 38288785 38188807 38528822 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH