264 ACUS11 KWNS 232004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232004 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-232200- Mesoscale Discussion 2101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Nevada into northern Utah...southeast Idaho...and southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232004Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours across northeast Nevada and northern Utah and adjacent portions of Wyoming and Idaho. These storms will likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is expected as convection begins to mature. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady vertical development of cumulus and early thunderstorm initiation across UT into northeast NV and southeast ID. Much of this early activity is tied to enhanced orographic ascent within higher terrain features, though thermodynamic conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for thunderstorm development across much of the region as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a plume of upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates and modifications to the 18z LKN sounding, MLCAPE values are increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range with rapidly decreasing inhibition. 30-40 knot west/southwesterly flow sampled by the recent LKN sounding will advect convection developing in northeast NV/western UT across the plume of relatively higher buoyancy, and should also support adequate hodograph elongation for organized convection. Initially discrete/semi-discrete cells may pose an early threat of marginally severe hail given somewhat elongated/straight hodographs, but weak low-level flow and a propensity for splitting cells should promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat through late afternoon and early evening. Based on these observations and trends in latest guidance, confidence in the overall severe threat appears greatest across north-central UT and adjacent portions of ID and WY where buoyancy is regionally maximized, low-level lapse rates are very steep (9 C/km), and convective coverage should be highest through peak heating. Some solutions, notably recent runs of the HRRR, hint that one or more somewhat better organized clusters may emerge across this region and could result in more focused corridors of higher wind potential. However, this will be conditional on realizing adequate cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth, and may be thermodynamically limited to areas in/around the Great Salt Lake where low-level moisture is locally higher. Regardless, watch issuance is likely in the next hour or two for portions of the region as storms begins to develop and mature. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 40931009 40671013 40251084 39261253 38861375 38631468 38671530 38881607 39101656 39571655 40121610 41891422 43181250 43241202 43191174 42821117 42291051 41721014 41301002 40931009 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH  307 ACUS11 KWNS 232022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232021 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232245- Mesoscale Discussion 2102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Areas affected...eastern Colorado...far southwest Kansas...and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232021Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph is expected to increase by late afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the limited areal extent of the threat. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate thunderstorms increasing in coverage along the CO Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains within a mid-level moisture plume rotating around the northern periphery of an upper high. Objective analysis and the 18Z DDC observed sounding indicate residual capping in place across the adjacent plains of eastern CO with some deepening of cumulus noted along the Raton Mesa. Continued daytime heating will weaken the cap, allowing the mountain storms to spread east into the lower elevations. Additional storm development is also possible along a surface trough over eastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear may support episodic storm organization through this evening with the primary hazard being severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38200426 39810434 40690404 40980276 40200222 39020203 38210192 37360116 36350074 35840102 35820172 36320301 37590407 38200426 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  514 ACUS11 KWNS 232048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232048 AZZ000-232315- Mesoscale Discussion 2103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Areas affected...southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232048Z - 232315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts up to 80 mph is expected to increase by late afternoon through this evening. A watch is currently not expected due to the limited areal extent of the threat. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening moist convection along the higher terrain in southeast AZ. To the immediate west over the lower desert, a hot, well-mixed boundary layer has developed with steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Latest short-term guidance indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity from late afternoon into this evening as activity spreads east into the more favorable thermodynamic environment. A westerly low-level wind component currently being observed by the Tucson VWP may aid in some forward propagational characteristics and resultant cold pool organization with severe wind gusts up to 80 mph being the primary hazard. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31661251 31921330 32661338 32981279 33081149 32871048 32131016 31541030 31261066 31371145 31661251 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH