380 

ACUS11 KWNS 231749

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 231748 

NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-231945-



Mesoscale Discussion 2097

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026



Areas affected...portions of the Carolina coastline into far eastern

Georgia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 231748Z - 231945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk

for damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Watch

issuance appears unlikely at this time.



DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a relatively diffuse

cold front extending from the NC Coastal Plain into central South

Carolina, with a deepening cumulus field and an inland-progressing

sea breeze evident in visible satellite imagery ahead of this front.

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected within this

corridor over the next 1-2 hours. Hot and humid conditions (surface

temperatures near 90 F and dewpoints in the mid 70s F) are already

supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg, sufficient for at least a few robust

updrafts. Isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger

microbursts given modest PW (1.5-1.75 inches) and steepening

low-level lapse rates within this moderate to strongly unstable

environment. Despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, isolated

marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out (particularly along

the northeastern SC and southeastern NC coastlines) with any

transient supercell structure that can develop amid effective shear

of around 35 kts. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch

issuance appears unlikely at this time as severe coverage and

magnitude are expected to remain largely limited.



..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/23/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...



LAT...LON   32298023 31928084 31898110 31988142 32228156 32588148

            32908126 33528051 34337923 34927778 35127734 35257668

            35247640 35157619 34997606 34767616 34597648 34387697

            33777801 32957931 32497999 32298023 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN