410 ACUS11 KWNS 221915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221915 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 2084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Wyoming into the western Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221915Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to increase by mid-afternoon and continue through this evening. A watch is currently not anticipated due to the limited coverage of the threat. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite imagery show deepening moist convection along the Laramie Mountains and CO Front Range with additional development likely ahead of a well-defined MCV moving through central WY. Beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, current surface observations indicate a moist boundary layer characterized by dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Latest objective analysis suggests the air mass across the adjacent High Plains remains capped; however, continued daytime heating and the glancing influence of the WY MCV should allow initial terrain-anchored storms to move into lower elevations later this afternoon into evening. Current VWPs and RAP-based forecast soundings indicate vertically veering wind profiles with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be supportive of at least episodic supercell structures capable of large hail. The potential for isolated severe wind gusts may become more likely by early evening, especially if storms can merge into clusters. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 39800550 41380567 42410617 42980659 43970678 44480622 44330536 43750482 42360365 40850314 40080324 39670350 39320422 39330484 39800550 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  563 ACUS11 KWNS 221919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221918 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222115- Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle into far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221918Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across far southwest Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas by late afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for severe downburst winds as it spreads southwest through early evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations are reporting temperatures reaching into the 106-110 F range within the apex of a thermal ridge across northwest TX. These temperatures are running 4-5 F warmer than expected based on the latest high-res guidance, which implies that boundary-layer mixing is likely deeper than depicted by forecast soundings. Similarly, residual mixed-layer inhibition is likely weaker than recent RAP mesoanalyses would suggest. The early stages of boundary-layer cumulus development are becoming evident in GOES imagery, suggesting that thunderstorm development appears probable in the coming hours either along a residual outflow boundary draped across southwest OK, along a diffuse/weak frontal zone extending into the TX Panhandle, or in proximity to a weak thermal low analyzed near the intersection of these two boundaries. Although recent guidance does not appear to be capturing low-level thermodynamic conditions well, HRRR/RRFS time-lagged guidance shows a trends towards widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development by the 20-22 UTC period. Deep-layer shear will remain weak and promote mainly disorganized convection, but the potential for severe downbursts should increase as thunderstorms spread south/southwest into the thermal ridge where low-level profiles will be most optimal for near-surface downdraft accelerations. Explicit wind gusts estimates from high-res solutions depict small swaths of 60-75 mph winds, which appear reasonable given the expectation of poorly organized convection within a very hot/deeply mixed environment. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if convective coverage appears sufficient for a more widespread severe wind threat. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33469894 33419928 33610233 33640275 33720299 33900312 34150316 34500308 34810289 35060253 35130166 35160062 35269914 35149890 34869876 33819857 33609867 33469894 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  750 ACUS11 KWNS 221947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221946 LAZ000-TXZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 2086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Texas into far western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221946Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe downburst winds through early evening across eastern Texas and far western Louisiana. This threat should be sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A recent 18 UTC sounding from SHV sampled very limited inhibition remaining across far west/northwest LA. Further west into eastern TX, temperatures are much warmer (100-106 F) with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Modifying the SHV sounding suggests that SBCAPE values are likely approaching 3500 J/kg - much higher than depicted by recent mesoanalysis estimates - with virtually no lingering inhibition. Recent GOES imagery also shows an expanding and deepening cumulus field across eastern TX, bounded to the north by a residual outflow boundary and to the west by warmer 925-850 mb temperatures/capping. Consequently, a corridor appears to be emerging across east TX into western LA where thunderstorm development is likely in the coming hours. Weak forcing for ascent (mainly driven by weak low-level confluence and/or strong surface heating) suggests that overall storm coverage should remain somewhat limited. However, a combination of weak deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates on the order of 8-9 C/km, strong buoyancy, and 1.8 to 2.0 inch PWAT values should support robust, water-loaded updraft development followed by strong downbursts. Recent high-res ensemble guidance hints at this potential and suggests localized swaths of 45-60 mph winds are possible. This activity should peak by 4-6 PM CDT before gradually diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after around 8 PM. Trends will be monitored, but the expectation for more limited storm coverage should negate the need for a watch. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32669584 33119464 33139436 33009413 31379332 31159333 31009346 30339478 30329506 30429526 32229611 32509607 32669584 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  888 ACUS11 KWNS 221950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221950 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...central and eastern Ohio into northern West Virginia and western parts of New York and Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 221950Z - 222145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging wind gusts is expected to continue across the watch area late this afternoon into evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing within low-level confluence zones preceding the synoptic cold front. As of 1945Z, the most intense convection was located over far eastern OH, where several instances of wind damage have been reported. Latest mesoanalysis indicates a plume of steep low-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km has developed ahead of that convective band, which should allow the damaging wind threat to spread into western PA over the next hour. Regional VWPs indicate generally weak low-level winds with pockets of around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which may be supportive of more organized bowing/line segments capable of a comparatively greater damaging wind threat. Otherwise, expect storms to remain somewhat disorganized and shorter lived, but still capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Mead.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39718266 40618267 41028300 41368307 41738204 42088121 42347989 42767905 43157852 43047819 41977864 40357942 39447982 39078044 38908120 38848189 38858239 39718266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN