022 ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221809 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-222015- Mesoscale Discussion 2082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid South Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221809Z - 222015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered damaging/severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected across portions of the Mid South this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a west-east oriented cold front extending from far southern Illinois into southern Missouri and Kansas. Also evident in visible satellite imagery are an MCV located in close proximity to ongoing convection across far southeastern Kansas and a surface confluence zone across northern Arkansas demarcated by a zone of developing cumulus. As this MCV and surface cold front continue to progress south-southeastward through mid-afternoon, guidance suggests that ongoing convection should intensify and/or additional development will occur along the aforementioned boundaries amid a moderately unstable environment. As convective coverage increases through the mid-afternoon, enhanced mid-level flow associated with the MCV (40-50 kts sampled by the Tulsa/Wichita VWPs along the southern flank of the MCV) will aid in the organization of convection into one or more linear clusters. Scattered damaging/severe wind gusts (and potentially a few significant gusts to 75-80 mph) are likely to accompany this cluster given the enhanced mid-level flow and presence of very steep low-to-mid level lapse rates below 600 mb (as depicted by recent objective analysis and sampled by the 12 UTC LZK observed sounding). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours to address this severe risk. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35779399 35159363 34349252 33509112 33518998 33788906 34528871 34998886 35608919 36039020 36829284 36679353 36239395 35779399 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  379 ACUS11 KWNS 221828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221827 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-222030- Mesoscale Discussion 2083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...West Virginia and Maryland Panhandles into northern and central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221827Z - 222030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms appear possible from mid-afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard. A watch issuance is not anticipated due to the limited areal coverage of the threat. DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development has occurred over the WV Panhandle, northwest of Harrisonburg, VA, amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Farther east along the lee side of the Blue Ridge, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus within a low-level upslope regime. Latest time-lagged HRRR and RRFS ensemble guidance suggests that a small cluster of thunderstorms may evolve out of those areas of deepening moist convection over northern VA later this afternoon into evening. The current VWP from Charleston, WV is sampling 30-40 kt of westerly winds above 4 km AGL, which may contribute to some organization as updrafts continue to mature this afternoon. When coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates, the environment appears supportive of locally damaging wind gusts as storms progress east across the discussion area. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38487947 38807935 39137920 39617890 39707838 39617788 39107736 38497732 38027754 37647808 37677895 37687919 37937950 38247953 38487947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH