896 

ACUS11 KWNS 221539

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 221538 

NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-221815-



Mesoscale Discussion 2081

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026



Areas affected...central and eastern Ohio...eastern

Kentucky...northern and western West Virginia...and western parts of

Pennsylvania and New York



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 221538Z - 221815Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms is expected

to increase by early afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is

possible by as early as 17-18Z.



DISCUSSION...Mid-morning visible satellite imagery shows a

well-defined MCV over southwest OH with an associated zone of

forcing for ascent contributing to some light shower activity north

of Columbus. The 12Z ILN sounding sampled a relatively deep moisture

profile in the low levels, which yielded MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.

That moisture will combine with strong daytime heating ahead of the

central OH convection to support a moderately unstable air mass by

afternoon for surface-based parcels with MLCAPE increasing to

1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization process coupled with the

forcing ahead of the MCV is expected to foster a gradual increase in

storm coverage and intensity by early afternoon.



Current VWP and RAP-based sounding data indicate the strongest

mid/upper-level winds and resultant deep-layer shear remaining west

of the effective warm sector, which may tend to limit the

organization and longevity of individual storms. Nonetheless,

steepening low-level lapse rates within the inflow region of the

expected storms may enhance damaging wind potential, especially in

areas where storm clusters and/or line segments can evolve.

Marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest storms.



..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...



LAT...LON   39088308 40368287 41518219 42248090 42787980 42927899

            42307830 41197846 40497862 39417918 38578021 38118094

            37508202 37468283 37978326 39088308 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN