432 

ACUS11 KWNS 202055

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 202055 

WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-202230-



Mesoscale Discussion 0807

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0355 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026



Areas affected...portions of eastern Kentucky into central West

Virginia



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...



Valid 202055Z - 202230Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236

continues.



SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts continues across Severe

Thunderstorm Watch 236.



DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts several ongoing

thunderstorm clusters from southern Kentucky northeastward into

western/central West Virginia, with a couple of recent 1" hail

reports noted north of Charleston, West Virginia. Continued diurnal

heating has supported temperatures warming well into the 80s F

across the region, which is subsequently contributing to 1000-1500

J/kg MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 8 C/km per

latest objective analysis) and dewpoint depressions of 20-25 F

evident in recent surface observations continue to promote at least

some potential for damaging wind gusts with ongoing thunderstorms.

Modest effective shear (generally less than 30 kts) and weak

mid-level lapse rates will largely temper the threat for large hail,

but isolated small to marginally severe hail remains possible with

the most robust cores. Expectation is for ongoing storms to persist

into this evening before gradually dissipating owing to low-level

nocturnal cooling/stabilization.



..Chalmers.. 05/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...



LAT...LON   36968281 36698350 36698380 36948391 37278383 37618341

            38018272 38448196 38548165 38598115 38548078 38368061

            38198061 37888088 37728114 37278204 36968281 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN