367 ACUS11 KWNS 201910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201909 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-202045- Mesoscale Discussion 0805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...235... Valid 201909Z - 202045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234, 235 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail is increasing across portions Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 and will expand into downstream WW 235 through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased across portions WW234 over the past 1-2 hours amid continued destabilization ahead of an approaching cold front, with two reports of wind damage noted across far southern Pennsylvania. Recent radar trends suggest that some upscale growth/clustering of convection is ongoing along various outflow boundaries. The environment downstream of this convection has continued to destabilize, with latest objective analysis depicting 1000-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE across the region. Continued insolation is also yielding steepening low-level lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer profiles (evident in recent regional ACARS profiles and latest surface observations, respectively), with surface dewpoint depressions approaching/exceeding 25-30 F. With further convective clustering expected, this is expected to yield increasing potential for damaging wind gusts across the eastern portions of WW234 through the afternoon, with activity eventually forecast to spreading downstream into WW235. Latest high-res guidance (including recent WoFS runs) also depicts this increasing potential. ..Chalmers.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38877702 38597798 38587838 38817865 39307840 40147793 40667717 40907651 41027579 40957542 40707517 40257520 39827546 39477586 38877702 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN  140 ACUS11 KWNS 201953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201953 TXZ000-202200- Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201953Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts may develop later this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...A large area of primarily elevated and disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon from near Lubbock to Midland to west of Del Rio. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support occasional intensification of these elevated storms, with a threat for isolated hail. Farther west, storms are gradually increasing in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains, with a continued increase in coverage possible as a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region from northern Mexico. Stronger heating has occurred in this area, along/south of a baroclinic zone, and convection in this area could evolve into more organized surface-based storms, with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and steep midlevel lapse rates will support potential for large to very large hail, if any surface-based supercells can evolve with time. Localized severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas along/south of the front, where steeper low-level lapse rates are in place. Coverage of severe storms later this afternoon into the early evening remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if development of multiple sustained severe storms appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29770462 31010408 31810334 31930206 31870141 31750124 30650096 30220090 29760124 29390228 29260247 29090270 28880311 28830346 29160435 29770462 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN