949 ACUS11 KWNS 192131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192131 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-192230- Mesoscale Discussion 0792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southern Indiana into western Kentucky...extreme northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192131Z - 192230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or an instance of hail may occur through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat should remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms amid a weak shear environment have shown some increase in intensity over the last 1-2 hours (per MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data). These storms are intensifying amid a mixed boundary layer, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km per 21Z mesoanalysis. However, mid-level lapse rates are rather poor, resulting in tall/thin buoyancy profiles, yielding up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the moist environment and weak vertical wind shear, storms should remain pulse-cellular, with damaging gusts from wet downbursts the primary threat, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35259080 36888907 38158711 38738578 38668490 38378463 37658495 36768614 35778828 35308903 34998984 35259080 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  591 ACUS11 KWNS 192141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192140 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-192245- Mesoscale Discussion 0793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Pennsylvania into far northern Virginia...central Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192140Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with the stronger downbursts. The severe threat is very sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered pulse-cellular storms have matured atop a well mixed boundary layer, characterized by low to mid 90s F surface temperatures and 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear, forcing, and mid-level lapse rates are all quite poor. As such, the well-mixed boundary layer may promote enough evaporative cooling with the stronger wet downbursts to support a damaging gust or two. However, the severe threat is very low, with no WW issuance anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38657827 39607742 40067673 40277597 40097557 39747549 39257579 38837639 38597680 38487721 38427770 38417801 38657827 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH