112 ACUS11 KWNS 191923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191923 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-192030- Mesoscale Discussion 0789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...Portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191923Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convective development across portions of southern New England is occurring amidst hot, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer profiles. While uncertainty in convective coverage exists, any storms that develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Radar trends have shown continued convective development across portions of southern New England as surface temperatures have risen as high as the mid-90s F. Proximity RAP soundings show deeply-mixed and dry boundary layer profiles, and current mesoanalysis has widespread 9 C/km lapse rates colocated with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of deep-layer shear. There is some uncertainty in storm coverage, as there have yet to be any lightning detections with this convective activity -- likely due to dry-air entrainment. Still, there is enough shear within the environment to support some convective organization, especially with any stronger/more robust updrafts, that would point towards a potential damaging wind threat this afternoon. ..Halbert/Hart.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42087494 42767424 42817364 42927279 42757188 42517108 42147094 41807119 41697190 41627279 41677351 41737450 41877500 42087494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  321 ACUS11 KWNS 191954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191954 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-192200- Mesoscale Discussion 0790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191954Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...While convection remains generally disorganized, a southeastward outflow surge has recently been noted in the ArkLaTex vicinity, with a 44 kt gust recently observed at Texarkana. Some heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates has occurred downstream of this outflow surge, and continued updraft development along the outflow is expected through late afternoon, as it moves through a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. The 18Z SHV sounding continues to depict weak deep-layer shear, and some weakening of low-level flow has been noted in the SHV VWP. As a result, the ongoing storm cluster is expected to remain relatively disorganized. However, given the presence of a well-defined outflow moving through a warm and moist environment, at least localized instances of damaging wind will be possible through late afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34359320 34349223 34199185 33859166 32939180 32599192 32279216 32039251 31849327 31879395 32039440 32409464 32869476 33089473 33209430 33859363 34359320 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH