973 

ACUS11 KWNS 190701

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 190701 

MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-190900-



Mesoscale Discussion 0784

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and

southwest Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...



Valid 190701Z - 190900Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229

continues.



SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and large hail will remain possible

across portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest

Missouri this morning.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #229. The environment along and ahead of

these storms remains very unstable with MUCAPE values between

2000-3000 J/kg. However, despite a very strong low-level jet across

the watch area (in excess of 60 knots per KTLX and KINX radars), the

overall large-scale forcing is lifting north, away from the area.

This is reflected in the objectively analyzed effective shear

calculations, which decrease to less than 30 knots across central

and southern Oklahoma.



The character of this environment is reflected in regional radar

imagery. Namely, thunderstorms across the area are mostly anafrontal

in nature, either forming north of, or along and rapidly

transitioning to north of, a slowly southeast moving composite cold

front/outflow boundary. As long as storms remain north of this

effective cold front/outflow boundary, the damaging wind potential

will be less than if the storms were along or ahead of the boundary

(although not completely zero given the strength of the low-level

flow).



One area where thunderstorms are closer to the composite cold

front/outflow boundary is across eastern Kay and much of Osage

counties in north-central Oklahoma, where the greatest potential of

severe thunderstorm winds occurring is found.



Elsewhere, despite the post-frontal nature of the thunderstorms,

strong elevated instability remains in place across Oklahoma, thanks

in part to steep midlevel lapse rates. Thus, isolated large hail

will remain possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores.



..Marsh.. 05/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...



LAT...LON   35309997 36649779 37339640 38029502 38239372 37999311

            37469287 36899307 35409716 35169803 35009891 35039983

            35309997 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN