559 

ACUS03 KWNS 200723

SWODY3

SPC AC 200722



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND

WESTERN OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions

of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging

wind.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level wave will move across the central Plains on D3/Friday. A

weak lee low will develop across northeastern New

Mexico/southeastern Colorado, with a dryline extending from the

OK/TX Panhandles into southwestern Texas. Scattered thunderstorms

are expected along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon, with

potential for large hail and damaging wind.



...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of southwestern Kansas,

western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas...

While there remains some uncertainty in the exact eastward placement

of the dryline Friday afternoon, guidance continues to suggest

eroding MLCIN and potential for convective development by the

afternoon as weak ascent spreads across KS into northern OK. Ahead

of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by steep low

to mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Deep

layer shear around 30-35 kts would support potential for initial

supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. Clustering and

more multi-cell mixed mode thunderstorms may evolve into a damaging

wind threat through time.



...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected south of a

stationary boundary extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into

Tennessee and south into northern Georgia. Though weak to moderate

instability will be in place, weak flow aloft and weak deep layer

shear will likely keep storms sub-severe.



..Thornton.. 05/20/2026



$$