804 

ACUS03 KWNS 231932

SWODY3

SPC AC 231930



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions

of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may

also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi

Valley.



...Synopsis...

A synoptic scale mid-level anticyclone will overspread most of the

western and central CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple mid-level

impulses poised to pivot around the anticyclone across the Plains

states into the Upper- and Mid-MS Valleys. The most pronounced

impulse, in the form of a mid-level shortwave trough, will traverse

the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, supporting a surface trough

with a cold front draping southwestward across the Plains. Along and

ahead of the cold front, enough deep-layer shear and ascent, in

tandem with adequate buoyancy, will support at least scattered

severe storms across the southern and central High Plains into the

Upper MS Valley.



...Central and southern High Plains...

As a mid-level impulse crests the ridge and tracks southeastward

across the northern Plains, a cold front will drift

south-southeastward across NE. Meanwhile, upslope moist low-level

flow will encourage both increased instability and convergence along

the immediate lee of the Rockies over NM and CO. 8 C/km mid-level

lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding

2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the strongest buoyancy expected

immediately ahead of the cold front over northeast CO into NE. Here,

the greatest severe threat exists since 40 kts of effective bulks

shear will also coincide with the aforementioned buoyancy, with

severe wind- and hail-producing multicells and supercells expected.

There is some indication for the potential of cold-pool mergers and

subsequent development of an MCS. If this occurs, a severe wind

swath would manifest across the central High Plains. Farther south

into the southern High Plains, a deep and dry boundary layer will

compensate for weaker vertical wind shear to support a severe gust

threat in association with dry downbursts, driven by evaporative

cooling.  



...Upper MS Valley...

A narrow tongue of at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect

ahead of a surface trough/cold front Tuesday afternoon. Though

mid-level lapse rates may be modest, the rich low-level moisture

will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, southwesterly

surface winds beneath stronger northwesterly flow aloft support

modestly elongated and curved hodographs, with supercells possible.

All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including an

instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of

tornadoes. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future

outlooks if consensus and consistency among guidance members

indicates relatively greater storm coverage.



...Portions of the Gulf Coast...

Another day of deep-layer north-northwesterly flow, atop a very

moist boundary layer (i.e. 70s F surface dewpoints), will encourage

multicellular development amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The stronger

storm cores may support wet downdrafts, the strongest of which may

produce isolated wind damage.



..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026



$$