779 

ACUS02 KWNS 151727

SWODY2

SPC AC 151725



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany a

squall line that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New

England tomorrow (Friday).



...Synopsis...

A pronounced, positively tilted upper trough will continue to

amplify as it rapidly approaches the East Coast tomorrow (Friday).

Accompanying this upper trough will be a strong surface cyclone,

which will track from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New

England during the day. A marginally unstable airmass will advect

ahead of a surface trough attendant from the cyclone, supporting

deep-moist convective potential amid an environment characterized by

strong forcing and vertical wind shear. As such, severe storms will

be possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New

England late tomorrow morning into the evening hours.



...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...

As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over

the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant

surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in

the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve

into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of

mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates

will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the

line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots.

Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be

brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread

antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will

accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt

flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the

boundary layer, just above the surface.  



Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall

line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within

the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface

gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of

tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA

during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early

evening.



..Squitieri.. 10/15/2026



$$