962 

ACUS01 KWNS 160051

SWODY1

SPC AC 160049



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026



Valid 160100Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

SOUTHERN IN INTO OH...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of localized strong/damaging gusts and

possibly a brief tornado remain possible this evening across parts

of southern Indiana into Ohio.



...Parts of IN/OH...

A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening across southern IN,

near the intersection of a surface trough and warm front. As a

vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface low

move across the Great Lakes this evening, the warm front will

continue to move northward. Modest buoyancy within the persistent

low-level warm-advection regime will allow for maintenance of

convection through parts of OH into the Lower Great Lakes, though

surface-based buoyancy will become increasingly scant with time and

northeastward extent. 



In the short term, locally damaging wind will be possible with the

strongest storms. Favorable low-level shear/SRH may also support a

brief-tornado threat, though this threat should eventually diminish

as convection tends to become increasingly elevated. Some threat for

localized strong/damaging gusts could spread across OH through late

evening, before increasing low-level stability results in a

diminishing threat.



..Dean.. 10/16/2026



$$