472 FXUS64 KBMX 170501 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1201 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front has pushed through Central Alabama. Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 This evening the cold front has moved southeast of Central Alabama and extends along the Eastern Seaboard to the Georgia Coast, then southwest across the Gulf. A large ridge stretches across much of Conus with a 1036-37mb center stretched across portions of New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and northeast toward Eastern Nebraska. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds will continue for the remainder of tonight and into the daytime on Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Winds should begin to taper down on Saturday night as the ridge center shifts to over Indiana/Ohio and gradients relax across the Deep South. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for most this week. We could even see a few upper 30s in a few of the colder northern locales and valleys by Sunday night. Highs will be generally in the 60s over the weekend. While overall Eastern Conus ridging continues this week, it does weaken a little. As such, our airmass should begin to moderate as we head through the upcoming week as our flow becomes more northeast to easterly. Look for highs by Monday to be seasonal in the 70s, with 80s creeping back for some by Wednesday. With that said, we will remain rain free with very little moisture available for much cloud cover much less rain. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A few MVFR cigs may occur this evening as well as a few light showers as the last bit of moisture moves through with and right behind the cold front. NW-N wind 10-18kts with higher gusts are at all sites except for AUO. The front is near them and they are just shifting with lighter winds, but they should pick up shortly. Gusty NRLY winds are expected for during the day on Saturday. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A much drier air mass will build into the region this weekend behind a cold front and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will be strong through much of Saturday afternoon with 20ft winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. RHs drop to the middle 30% range in western and southern portions of Central Alabama, with the rest of the area dropping just below 40%. This keeps us out of critical Red Flag Warning criteria, but conditions are notably dry and windy on Saturday, so outdoor burning is discouraged. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 47 66 41 69 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 47 66 43 68 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 48 65 45 68 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 68 45 71 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 48 66 45 68 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 50 67 48 66 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 50 69 47 69 / 20 0 0 0 Troy 48 69 46 67 / 20 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  384 FXUS65 KCYS 170500 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prone area, Arlington and Bordeaux. Wind gusts of 55 to 65 MPH are possible. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cloudless, clear day continue across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and 50s and will stay here for the remainder of the day. Overnight lows are not anticipated to be as cold as Thursday night. This is due to the flattening of the ridge aloft turning winds more westerly. The downslope component of the wind will keep overnight lows from tanking like they did Thursday night. Winds will strengthen early Saturday morning as MSLP gradients steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. A surface trough in lee of the Laramie Range and a surface high over western Colorado will cause the tightening gradients. CAG to CPR 850 mb height gradients will also increase, reaching over 50 meters during the day Saturday. This is a good indication of potential high winds in the Arlington area. MSLP gradients across the area seem sufficiently strong enough to get high winds at Bordeaux as well. In-house guidance suggests a 40 percent chance of high winds occurring at Bordeaux during the day Saturday. As a result, went a head and upgraded the High Wind Watches for these zones to Warnings. High Wind Warnings are in effect from 6 AM to 7 PM Saturday. Given that these is minimal upper-level support for this event, high winds will likely be marginal, with the strongest wind gusts in the 55 to 65 MPH range. Winds are also likely to stay elevated overnight as gradients weaken slowly. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. Looking at another warm and dry day on Sunday. Although still above average, temperatures will be cooler by about 5 to 10 degrees compared to Saturday. This is a result from the flattening ridge sending a cool front into the forecast area. Luckily, still looking at a mostly sunny day, making for a pleasant end to the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly benign conditions to start the work week in the long term, but this pattern should begin to be broken up by a deep Pacific system that will encroach our region by the end of the forecast period. Monday starts with high pressure ridging mostly holding control of our forecast area, but a weakening upper level low will move across the Four Corners region and then just to our southeast through Tuesday afternoon. While mostly non- impactful, this feature will at least bring a very low end chance of some high elevation precipitation, along with a small bump in moisture. This influx of moisture will continue through the rest of the week as our upper level flow turns southwesterly while we sit between high pressure controlling the southeastern US and a deep Pacific system that will move inland by later Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will be the next noteworthy system to impact the forecast area as we see precipitation begin overspreading late Thursday into Friday and start another cooling trend that should persist into the weekend. For this forecast period, expect mostly similar temperatures day to day as highs will be around 6 to 12 degrees above normal, generally in the 60's to 70's, with lows similarly warm in the 40's. Any drop in temperatures would occur just beyond the long term after the Pacific system moves in, and the most impactful precipitation chances similarly just beyond this forecast time as well. Overall it should be a quiet period, but that will be ending by the weekend after next. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. In general, winds will pose no concerns as the prevailing speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots, or less at times, for all sites during this forecast period, except KRWL and KCYS. Where winds will ramp up Saturday morning with southwesterly gusts between 20 and 30 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ106- 110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  555 FXUS64 KLIX 170502 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold frontal passage has brought elevated fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains for all of southern MS and portions of southeast LA today. - Windy conditions will also remain a while longer behind the front but should ease enough to allow wind advisories to drop by early afternoon today with Gale Warnings to follow by late this evening. Winds will remain breezy, especially over water areas keeping Small Craft Advisories valid into the new work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds will be slow to ease over the coming days and may take until mid week for all headlines to drop, which includes the coastal waters. The dry conditions on top of drought and moderate wind speeds has prompted a red flag warning for today. Even though this headline will be dropped this evening as wind speeds ease, the dry conditions will remain with breezy conditions promoting conditions supportive of fire spread, just not as rapid. Wind advisories will remain through early afternoon today as well due to the slow ease in wind speeds. The very comfortable dry conditions will stay with us for at least the short term. These conditions are very normal for October and is our transition from a more tropical environment to a continental air mass environment, basically summer to winter transition. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term from midweek through the end of the workweek appears to be a dry one across the region. The northern flow around the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge centered over the Rio Grande Valley will keep the upper levels extremely dry. With the higher heights still in close proximity, above average daytime high temperatures can be expected with plenty of surface heating. In addition, think RH values will be held down too with strong mixing, especially over the northern tier. Closer to the coast the pressure gradient at least Wednesday and Thursday will be rather tight allowing for continued moderate easterly winds. However, the surface easterly flow will allow for somewhat higher relative humidity values where the stronger winds do occur, which will limit the spread of any fires that may get going. That said, although the spread will be limited across the interior due to more lackluster winds, a few fires will likely be in the cards, especially as the drought across southwestern MS and north of I10/12 in Louisiana continues to worsen. Overnight lows will remain comfortable with most locations along and north of I10/12 dropping into the 50s and 60s elsewhere. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR through this cycle. Winds will be the only issue with this package which will be timed for shifts and shear values. && .MARINE... Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gale warnings remain through this evening. As winds begin to slowly ease a bit over some of the protected waters this evening, gale headlines may be replaced with advisories into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and continue to slowly ease to around 20kt late Sunday. These conditions are expected to last into the start of the new work week. A very slow lowering of easterly wind speed will occur into mid week where all headlines may finally be dropped. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086. GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ529- 531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572- 575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575- 577. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  763 FXUS64 KTSA 170506 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1206 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - Temperatures drop enough tonight and Saturday night to support some frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. - A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with temps climbing to around 10 degrees above average for this time of year by the end of the week. - Dry weather is expected this weekend into much of next week. Low rain chances return by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis is expected to lie from eastern KS to western OK at 12Z. Lower clouds across SW MO and NW AR now appear that they will clear out by morning, but this area will be a bit more displaced from the surface ridge and should maintain some north wind through the night. The area across far NE OK close to the KS border and beneath the surface ridge axis to the north and west of Tulsa will be the most favorable area for frost development by daybreak Saturday morning. After a cool start, it will be a Chamber of Commerce day across the region for your Saturday. Light winds, lots of sun and highs in the 60s. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 By Saturday night, the surface ridge axis will have shifted east and will lie from the Ozarks back into far eastern OK. Conditions appear favorable again toward daybreak Sunday morning for patchy frost in the valleys of NW AR and far NE OK. A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with ridging aloft prevailing over the central part of the country. Highs return to the 80s again by Wednesday and rise to the mid 80s toward the end of the week. An upper trough is expected to develop near the West Coast early next week but will take its time moving east toward the Plains. Current expectations are for a dry forecast next week with low rain chances by next weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. VFR ceilings between 3-4K feet will clear out of the far northwest Arkansas sites by around 09Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 40 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 68 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 64 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 61 33 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 64 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 63 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 F10 62 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055-059-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05  722 FXUS65 KFGZ 170506 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1006 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy weather continues through this afternoon. Less breezy on Saturday, then a weather system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday. This active pattern continues through most of next week with continued daily shower chances, occasional gusty winds, and below normal daytime temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...A strong easterly gradient is still present early this afternoon. This has brought very gusty east to northeast winds over the past 24 hours, especially downwind (west/southwest) of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino counties, as well as in the Little Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible through the rest of the afternoon, and a wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central Arizona through 6 PM MST today. Winds are expected to gradually relax tonight through Saturday as the gradient weakens, however locally gusty winds 30-40 mph will remain possible overnight. Other than the winds, expect cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. An upper low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California will slowly push inland across Arizona this weekend, and will be accompanied by another surge of moisture. Upper level clouds start to encroach our area on Saturday afternoon, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening through Sunday- Monday. Most ensemble guidance keeps rainfall accumulations light, but some localized accumulations up to 0.5'' will be possible. Into next week, we remain in a highly active pattern. A deep trough is forecast to strengthen and dive along the California coast on Tuesday, then eventually propagate past Arizona later in the week. Long term ensemble guidance hints that this will bring a deeper moisture surge than this weekend, however there is still plenty of uncertainty on the exact timing/trajectory. The current forecast brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Besides the precipitation, expect a return to gusty winds by the middle of next week and continued cooler than normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Saturday 17/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected until after 00Z Sunday when a few showers move into the area. Winds NE-E 10-15kts gusts to 25kts overnight in higher elevation terminals, light and variable or terrain driven lower elevation terminals, becoming E 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts after 18Z all locations. OUTLOOK...Sunday 18/06Z through Tuesday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions, brief MVFR in heavier showers or thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the TAF period with the best chances over the higher elevations. Winds variable 5-15kts Sunday, S-SW 5-15kts Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...Cool temperatures with east through southeast winds around 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening through Sunday over the higher terrain. Minimum RH is 15-35% on Saturday, increasing to 40-70% on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. South winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south-southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  716 FXUS66 KPDT 170506 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1006 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High winds and low RH into the evening for Grande Ronde Valley with red flag conditions, with winds persisting through Saturday morning. - Up to a tenth of an inch of rain for the Cascade Crests Saturday (50-70% confidence). - Uncertainty going into next week with another weather system pushing through the area, bringing possible precipitation (10-20% confidence). && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite and radar imagery show clear skies with scattered cirrus clouds over most of the regions, with clouds increasing towards the afternoon. The Grande Ronde region currently has surface observations of 15-20% RH with 20-35kt wind speeds with gusts of up to 40kt. With the NAM and NCEP showing a large pressure gradient of 4-7mb until Saturday morning, continuing windy conditions of 20kt and gusts up to 30kt overnight into Saturday morning. Maximum temperatures were higher than previously forecasted and are now around the mid to upper 70's. A red flag warning has been issued until the early evening for the Grande Ronde Valley. Saturday shows the emergence of a shortwave trough that will bring precip of up to a tenth of an inch (50-70% confidence) for the Cascade Crests. Along with the shortwave, a 850mb jet streak will bring breezy winds along the Kittitas Valley and parts of the Columbia Basin. The NBM advertises medium confidence (30 -60%) of wind speeds > 20mph for Ellensburg and lower confidence (40%) for the Lower Columbia Basin. Guidance is in good agreement that on Sunday an upper level trough descends into a low level pressure system that will be off the coast by Monday night. Monday night the clusters show uncertainty on the exact strength of how deep the low extends but is in agreement with the timing and position of the low as it travels southward. Tuesday into Wednesday shows split flow emerging over the region with uncertainty present with the strength and timing of the low, with models split between the low being just offshore (49%) or starting to enter southern California (51%). Thursday into Friday shows general agreement for the low moving through California that advertises chances for wrap around precipitation to occur through the CWA with low confidence(10-20%). Going into Friday shows low confidence chances for precipitation isolated within the Cascades and The Wallowas(10-20% confidence) as the models are largely uncertain to the strength of the flow over the Pacific NW and the remaining signal from the low pressure system in the Southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions prevail. KBDN and KDLS will be breezy at the beginning of the TAF period with calm winds for all other sites. Winds in the early-late morning are expected to increase to 15-20KT at KDLS,KPDT,KALW,KPSC. Early to mid-afternoon hours winds will then decrease to 5-10KT with the exception of KPSC. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 43 69 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 69 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 39 72 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 43 70 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 41 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 40 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 35 66 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 70 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 47 69 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07/95 AVIATION...18/95  855 FXUS64 KMOB 170508 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - Strong wind gusts to pose an enhanced threat for additional downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle into Saturday. - There is an increased risk of wildfires on Saturday. This danger is high across southeast Mississippi where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect. - Dangerous marine conditions will persist through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night and continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Strong and gusty northwest winds will be the primary concern through the remainder of tonight and Saturday. This will be especially true across the heavily damaged areas across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into portions of interior southwest Alabama. These locations have compromised trees leaning over structures, power lines, and roadways. These trees may succumb to the strong wind gusts along with large piles of debris that may be blown around which may again block roadways and lead to potentially numerous additional power outages in areas where power was recently restored and new road closures. In addition, structures may be hit by falling trees in locations where trees are leaning over homes and buildings. Use extreme caution if you are outdoors or driving this tonight across these locations. Elsewhere, outside of the heavily damaged locations, expect strong wind gusts to be capable of downing large branches and a few trees. Where large branches or trees fall across power lines, localized power outages will be possible. These winds will overspread our marine areas this evening as well creating very hazardous boating conditions for anyone venturing out into our coastal waters. Small craft are advised to remain in port through Saturday as very strong winds and large seas are anticipated. A gale warning remains in effect across all Alabama and northwestern Florida waters. Finally, there will be an increasing threat for wildfires across mainly western portions of the forecast area which received little rain from Hurricane Isaias. These dry conditions and the strong winds will create favorable conditions for fast and uncontrolled wildfire spread. Please refrain from burning tonight through the weekend in areas where Red Flag Warnings have been issued. It is also strongly advised to not burn even outside of the Red Flag Warning areas where dry and windy conditions will also exist. A deep upper level trough over the eastern states will continue to dig southeast along the East Coast through the weekend. Very windy and dry conditions along with much cooler temperatures will persist through Saturday behind a strong cold front that advanced across the forecast area overnight. Our first taste of Fall temperatures are expected with highs only reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend and lows ranging from the mid 40s over interior sections of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama to the lower 50s along the immediate coastline. Winds over land will gradually lower by Saturday evening as the pressure gradient weakens and surface high pressure builds over the area. Dry weather will persist through the remainder of this weekend. Mid and upper level ridging will build eastward early next week as surface high pressure shifts towards the East Coast. Drier air will continue to advect southwestward to the east of Appalachian Mountains, nosing into our area under northeast surface flow. Theincreasingly dry airmass and building heights will support a moderation in temperatures. Highs will steadily increase back into the middle 70s east of I-65, with upper 70s to lower 80s west through Tuesday. Lows will still remain in the 40s inland to lower 50s near the coast as diurnal ranges increase in response to the dry air in place. By midweek, another shortwave trough will move across the area from the north around a developing deep low pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast. This feature will have very little if any effect on the sensible weather across the region. Dry and warmer weather will persist through the end of next week with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the middle 50s interior to lower 60s along the coast. /JLH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northwest winds can be expected beginning this evening behind a strong cold front. These strong winds will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. There will also be a few scattered showers just behind the front that should be short-lived. Mainly mid level clouds are anticipated behind the front but ceilings should remain VFR. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow today quickly becomes strong to very strong northerly tonight behind a cold front moving across the forecast area. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force, along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Warning is in effect for all waters tonight into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday as the stronger winds shift south. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect after the Gales go down, lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and severe drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over these portions of the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Also, any areas with debris still on the ground over the western Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama, will be at added risk. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 51 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 55 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 56 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 70 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 69 46 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 46 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 50 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ054>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  288 FXUS65 KGJT 170511 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1111 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably cool conditions remain in place through the weekend. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for valley locations where sub-freezing temperatures are expected. - The potential for unsettled weather will increase throughout the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 COOL AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: High pressure remains in control through much of the weekend, keeping things dry and sunny. Temperatures remain on the cooler side through the weekend, with highs near to around 5 degrees below normal and seasonably cool lows. Across the northwest CO valleys, as well as the upper Colorado River Valley and CO Zone 23, subfreezing temperatures are once again forecast. A Freeze Warning is in effect through 9AM Saturday morning. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS: An area of low pressure that has been lurking off the SoCal coast the last few days is expected to become a mobile, open wave by Sunday, making its way toward the Four Corners. A bit of moisture a lift associated with the passing of this wave will result in some light mountain showers for the San Juans, generally in the form of rain. Some light snow showers will be possible Sunday night into Monday, but mainly at elevations above roughly 12k feet. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry. The next stronger Pacific trough will approach the West Coast Monday, resulting in flow across the western CONUS turning southwesterly. This will begin to draw up rich tropical moisture through the Four Corners, leading to afternoon mountain showers where orographics are favorable, mainly across the San Juans and into the Central Divide Mountains. Better forcing looks to move in mid-week, as the Pacific low moves through SoCal and begins to track through the Desert Southwest. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding this system, its exact track, timing, and strength. Suffice to say, it's looking like a return to cooler and unsettled weather is likely mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours under clear skies and with light terrain driven winds in place. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008- 023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT  351 FXUS63 KARX 170512 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing temperatures are occurring tonight and the first widespread freeze of the season is anticipated. - Mainly dry conditions are forecast through much of next week with slowly rising temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Today: Cold Start to the Day - Breezy Wind This Afternoon Infrared satellite imagery depicts clear skies over the Upper Midwest and surface obs indicate very light winds around 10 mph or less are ongoing. These conditions will lead to continued radiational cooling with temperatures dropping down into the lower 30s to lower 20s. In fact, freezing to sub-freezing temperatures are already being observed for some locations across the area, most notably in the known cold spots of central Wisconsin. Most locations across the forecast area should fall to at least freezing this morning, which should essentially end the growing season for this year. Surface high pressure will stay to the south and east of the region today and south to southwest wind should result over the Driftless Region. The sustained wind this afternoon is expected to increase up to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. The south wind will begin to usher in warmer air, but due to the cold start to the day, afternoon highs will be below average once again today. Sunday into Next Week: Dry Conditions with Increasing Temperatures Upper level ridging will develop across much of the central CONUS by early next week. This pattern will be favorable for temperatures to rise back up above average and for mostly dry conditions to persist. Outside of the continued breezy southwest wind on Sunday, the wind should be light throughout the next work week. Overall, a very nice, late October week is forecast for the region. Afternoon highs have at least a medium chance (50% or higher) of reaching 70 degrees area- wide by Wednesday into Thursday. If these forecast high temperatures are to pan out, they would roughly be 10 degrees above average for this time of year. The next potential weather system to bring unsettled weather to the region may try to lift northeast from the Desert Southwest late next week or early next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with clear skies and light winds overnight. Winds will begin to increase from the southwest this afternoon to around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20- 25 kts with mostly clear skies. Valley fog appears unlikely on the Mississippi River tonight given fairly large dewpoint depressions this evening and some stronger winds off the deck. However, will monitor for any changes in observational trends if radiational cooling can allow for temperatures to fall to their dewpoint faster. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Naylor  383 FXUS63 KDVN 170513 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning continues through 9 AM this morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Frost is possible again tonight but not as widespread. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October, with dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong positively tilted upper wave is moving through the Upper Midwest, and positioned over our CWA as of Noon, and this is progressing quickly to the south and east. Cold air aloft has allowed for showers to be scattered through the area since early this morning, and the last of these moving through this afternoon are a bit stronger, with over 40 DBZ indicating downpours, and even possibly a bit of really small hail possible. However, the footprint of those heavy showers remains very very small. After 4 PM, this wave should be east of the region, with downward motion behind it helping scour out the cloud cover as we head into early evening. Frost and Freezing temperatures are both possible tonight, and no changes are anticipated to the ongoing headlines. Our forecast lows of 30 to 35 remain in the middle of a very tight ensemble distribution, and I see little potential to vary greatly from that. Sadly, this is not expected to kill the bugs, but could damage sensitive plants. With the loss of cloud cover, Saturday should be a much more pleasant day, though still dealing with a rather cold air mass. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are closer to the upper end of guidance values, but with the dry air in place, we should see the warmer end of guidance verify. Saturday night, light south winds will increase through the night, helping keep lows from getting too cold. Lows in the mid 30s support patchy frost in valley locations, but most spots will not see any impact. Sunday, the high pressure center will be near the Ohio Valley, with southwest/south winds and sunshine over our area. Lower 60s north, to upper 60s south are forecast, again supported by close guidance clustering. Winds do not appear much above 15 mph in the afternoon, so fire danger does not appear too high. Thankfully, in the days ahead, winds are forecast to remain lighter than Sunday, keeping fire danger at low end values. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Sunday night and continuing through the week a general warm- up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. Quiet weather is expected, with winds remaining below 15 mph most days, and highs remaining in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds, primarily from the north and northwest, will continue overnight before turning southwesterly by midday. Skies will remain clear through the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ078-088-089- 098-099. IL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ellingworth  329 FXUS63 KGRB 170512 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight into Saturday morning as low temperatures fall into the mid 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Door County as temperatures fall to the mid 30s. - Breezy and dry conditions are expected for the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. - A prolonged stretch of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold Tonight into Saturday Morning...A prevailing high pressure system has brought cooler Canadian air over the forecast area. The combination of the colder air, clear skies, and calm winds will lead to chilly overnight/morning low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 20s for most locations north and west of the Fox Valley, with low to mid 30s in the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for central, east-central, and portions of far northeast WI, and a Frost Advisory in effect for Door County, where the interior and southern sections of the county will see frost. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM Saturday. Dry and Breezy this Weekend...The forecast area will remain under the influence of surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging for the weekend. Return southwesterly flow will also be present this weekend with a tightened pressure gradient at times. This will lead to breezy conditions, mainly during the afternoons with gusts to 20- 30 mph. Conditions will also be dry and mostly sunny with temperatures rebounding a little, highs in the 50s for Saturday, and low 60s on Sunday. Next Week...High pressure and mid-level ridging will remain in place for the first half of the work week, keeping conditions dry. Although chances continue to decrease, guidance indicates the next chance for precip would be sometime midweek from the southern tip of a northern stream system. Mid-level ridging and high pressure then return for the remainder of the week. This pattern will cause temperatures to remain above normal and gradually warm each day by a couple degrees, potentially reaching the low 70s for some spots by Thursday of next week. With the return to above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry period, will need to monitor fuels across drought stricken areas of northern WI for the potential of an increased wildfire risk. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will develop later this morning with gusts to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Low level wind shear will develop around 00z from 250 degrees at 40 to 45 knots. Still expected some gusts at the surface to 20 knot tonight with some gusts approaching 30 knots during the day Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay through late tonight before waves subside early Saturday. Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday night as persistent southwest winds increase, causing building waves. Additional marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines until the current headlines expire. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Kruk  306 FXUS63 KMQT 170512 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 112 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry air and windy conditions could increase fire weather concerns this weekend. - Gales are possible over western Lake Superior on Saturday and again on Sunday. - Expect dry weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As CAA ceases this evening with high pressure ridging and drier air moving in, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to end over the eastern U.P. tonight. While there could be a changeover to snow at times over the north central and east the rest of this afternoon and evening as temperatures continue to gradually cool (melting layer is practically now at the sfc), no accumulations are expected given the warm ground and (mostly) above freezing temperatures expected across the area the rest of today through tonight. Expect the remaining liquid to be received across the north wind belts today through this evening to be less than a tenth of an inch. Drier weather returns this weekend and looks to stay in place across Upper MI through at least early next week. With drier air being advected in from the Southern Plains, we could see elevated fire weather concerns back across the area this weekend as gusty southwest winds in association with a LLJ return to the area and RHs potentially drop into the 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall and cooler temperatures expected (particularly on Saturday where highs are only projected to get into the 50s), this risk is expected to be fairly mitigated. That being said, with the ongoing drought concerns still to deal with as well as fallen leaves at the sfc, elevated fire weather concerns could be realized by Sunday across the west half of Upper Michigan. From Monday onwards next week, fairly quiet weather is expected across the area. While we may have a cold front skirt us and bring some rain showers overhead around Wednesday/Thursday, with more high pressure ridging building into the central CONUS by the end of next week, we may remain dry for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the 06Z TAF period as high pressure passes over the region. This leaves wind speed, direction, and low level wind shear as the primary impacts. Light winds turn southwest early this morning, then increase to around 15 kts by this afternoon. Gusts at IWD/SAW are expected between 20-25 kts with 20-30 kts at CMX. Moving into the evening hours, a strong low level jet develops introducing a LLWS threat at all sites into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Lake Superior: North gales up to 40 to potentially 45 kts over the eastern lake this afternoon give way to light winds of 20 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the light winds to stay for long, however, as the pressure gradient over the western lake tightens and a LLJ approaches the area. With the help of some funneling along the Bayfield and Keweenaw Peninsulas, a narrow band of gales up to 35 kts could return to western Lake Superior on Saturday (up to a 60% chance according to the REFS). However, after collaborating with NWS DLH, given the uncertainty on the strength of the mixing in the boundary layer, we decided to hold off on issuing a Gale Watch/Warning for Saturday at this time. That being said, a short- fused Gale Warning may be issued for the western lake later tonight or even on Saturday should confidence in the gales increase. A much higher chance of southwest gales occurring over the western half of the lake arrives Saturday night into Sunday; the latest REFS has low- end gale chances at nearly 100% then. However, as high pressure ridging strengthens over the region early next week, expect the winds to fall back down to 20 kts or less by early Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northerly gales up to 35 kts this afternoon weaken to 15 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the lighter winds to last all that long though as a tightening pressure gradient and incoming LLJ bring southwest winds of 25 to 30 kts back across the area on Saturday. The winds may even intensify a few knots Saturday night into Sunday, and gales up to 35 kts could be seen by Sunday morning (up to a 90% chance according to the latest REFS). However, with high pressure ridging building over the Upper Great Lakes early next week, expect the winds to die down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...GS/77 MARINE...TAP  415 FXUS61 KBGM 170514 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 114 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Warning has been issued for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties for tonight into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A blustery start to the weekend is in store as lingering lake effect precipitation eventually comes to an end this afternoon. 2) High pressure builds into the region this weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures will not rebound much from the morning lows as highs today will only be in the 40s. Strong low-level flow will linger over the region through most of the day and mix down to the surface, resulting in wind gusts over 20 mph at times. These gusty winds will make it feel quite blustery as wind chills will be in the 20s this morning and likely stay in the 30s for most of the region today. The cold northwesterly flow will also support some lake effect showers through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Some wet snow may mix in early this morning but little to no accumulation is expected. High pressure will begin to build into the region later today and will help cut off any lingering showers as it brings a drier airmass. The northwesterly flow will keep skies cloudy into the afternoon, though skies will eventually clear to full sunshine. The first hard freeze of the season is expected tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures were lowered slightly below NBM guidance given that conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the region. The Freeze Watch for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties has been upgrade to a Freeze Warning. KEY MESSAGE 2... The high pressure will stay over the region and most of the eastern US throughout next week. A low pressure system will develop along the East Coast Sunday and lingers off the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic through most of the work week. The high pressure will keep precipitation associated with the low out of the region. Gradual warm air advection after tonight will help temperatures get back closer to seasonable normals by Monday. Temperatures will vary little after Sunday with highs consistently in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some valley locations will approach the 70s for daytime highs during the midweek period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mix of VFR/MVFR to locally IFR conditions will linger in the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight into tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings expected to be predominate much of the time. With a north-northwest wind in place later tonight into early tomorrow, there can be some isolated light lake effect rain showers that can mix with or even briefly change over to snow showers/flurries, mainly around SYR, ITH and BGM. Ceilings are expected to start breaking mid-to-late morning and continue into the afternoon with clear skies in place by the end of the TAF as high pressure moves in overhead. Gusty north- northwest winds will also continue through much of tomorrow before beginning to ease late in the day and into tomorrow evening. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...High pressure leads to mainly VFR conditions with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ044-047. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL AVIATION...DK  477 FXUS63 KTOP 170515 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect tonight and early Saturday. -After a few chilly days, temperatures gradually warm into the middle of next week. -Rain chances stay low until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Windy and cloudy conditions continue in eastern KS this afternoon while an upper trough axis pushes east of the area and as a large surface ridge builds in from west. The ridge will settle over the area tonight, allowing skies to clear and winds to become calm. This creates favorable conditions for radiational cooling and very chilly temperatures tonight and early Saturday. With the first freeze expected for some, confidence was high enough to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the northwestern half of the forecast area, and to continue the Frost Advisory for our remaining counties where temperatures will drop to near freezing. There could be some isolated locations, especially those in valleys, within the Advisory area that also drop to or just below freezing for a few hours before sunrise tomorrow. High pressure begins moving east of the area tomorrow but the associated cool and dry air mass will stick around. Highs tomorrow afternoon will run about ten degrees below average, capping temps around 60 degrees. Southwesterly flow and warming 850mb temperatures will help nudge highs into the mid and upper 60s on Sunday. A warming trend will continue into the middle of next week with each day about four to five degrees warmer than the previous day. While a few shortwaves in southwest flow aloft may move over western KS periodically this week, have kept POPs less than 10 percent until the very end of the week when a strong system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Mostly calm winds overnight pick back up from the SSW during the day Saturday, but remain under 10 kts under clear skies. VFR prevails. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Picha  460 FXUS64 KLZK 170515 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Much cooler temperatures expected to continue this weekend, including possible patchy frost conditions in the higher elevations of portions of northern Arkansas Sunday morning -Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible by the middle of next week -No significant rainfall is expected for the next week or so && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR condtions will persist through the entire forecast period across Arkansas. Low level cloudiness over parts of north and northwest Arkansas early this morning is running into much drier air further south, with SKC expected after sunrise. Expect breezy north to northeast winds today with a few isolated gusts up to around 20kts possible mainly across central and southern terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 65 40 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 68 40 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 38 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 68 41 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 67 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 67 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 67 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 63 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 39 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 68 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 66 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 41 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...76  468 FXUS66 KHNX 170515 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1015 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm conditions are expected through the weekend with temperatures across the area running 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. 2. A pattern change remains likely by early next week with temperatures cooling quickly to well below average for this time of year, along with a chance of rainfall throughout the area (low to moderate confidence). && .DISCUSSION... Another warm day is in store for the lower elevations on Saturday as we remain under a ridge of high pressure, including highs near 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley. Today's highs reached 90 degrees in some valley locations. Chances for maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or warmer on Saturday are at 55 to 65 percent for the Central Valley. Winds have generally decreased in the mountains and desert, while humidity has been improving in the mountain areas this evening. Thus, the Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory were allowed to expire at 10 PM PDT this evening. Although, some increased easterly winds will continue through the overnight hours with gusts near 30 mph at times. Winds will further decrease on Saturday as pressure gradients relax as the upper-level low moves inland towards the Colorado River Valley. For Sunday, above average temperatures continue, but with a minor decrease. Current probabilities for highs at or above 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley will be considerably lower than on Saturday, or at 15 to 25 percent. The ridge of high pressure weakens and gives way to an upper-level shortwave trough. This feature will eventually bring more noticeable cooling by Monday. Even more cooling and chances of precipitation enter the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. For the San Joaquin Valley we are looking at a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain with even better chances into Wednesday. There is at least moderate confidence that we will see a much cooler pattern, as highs struggle to exceed the lower 70s in the Valley for the latter part of next week. As of this writing, chances of a 70 degree reading or lower are at 50 to 60 percent for Wednesday until next Friday. Precipitation amounts of 0.10 inch ending Wednesday afternoon are at 35 to 45 percent for the San Joaquin Valley and of 0.50 inch or greater for the Sierra Nevada are at a similar percentage. As for the frozen precipitation, snow levels are at 8,000 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday with amounts of several inches. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ592>597. && $$ BSO weather.gov/hanford  538 FXUS65 KABQ 170517 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1117 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A surface high will settle over eastern NM tonight, winds will relax and the high clouds across southeast NM will decrease. Additionally, following last night's backdoor cold front, much drier air has move into the region. This will set up excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight and a widespread freeze is expected. A few locations dropped below freezing last night, namely Las Vegas, Moriarty and Estancia, thus the growing season has ended in those locations and the Freeze Watch was cancelled. Otherwise, the first freeze of the season is still expected for much of central and eastern NM, as well as portions of the Northwest Plateau. Have also added all of Chaves County into the Freeze Warning. A few caveats: Areas around Farmington are not expected to freeze, but areas south of Burnham are. In the Albuquerque Metro, the Sunport and northeast heights are not expected to freeze, but areas around Belen, Los Lunas, the ABQ Valley and near KAEG are expected to freeze. Similarly, KROW may not freeze, but portions of northeast Chaves County are more likely to drop below freezing. A deepening lee side surface trough will develop on Saturday, and the resultant southerly winds will begin the warming trend for eastern NM. A few breezes will be noted across northeast NM, but otherwise, it should be a quiet day with temperatures near to below normal. Saturday night's low temps will trend warmer as well. Given the growing season will likely end for many tonight, and warmer temps forecast, no additional Freeze Watches have been issued. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper low off the west coast of the northern Baja Peninsula will slowly fill and eject northeastward on Sunday and Sunday night. Pacific moisture will advect into NM ahead of the system allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across western NM as soon as Sunday morning. What is left of the system will cross the Four Corners on Monday, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should spread eastward to at least the Central Mtn Chain. Precipitation amounts will be light both Sunday and Monday. All eyes will then be on an upper level low diving southward along the west coast and the continued moisture advection into NM ahead of it. Precipitation coverage should gradually increase Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation coverage is currently expected to be greatest on Thursday and potentially through Friday as the system shifts eastward and large scale ascent increases over NM. PWATs will increase from around 0.6-0.75" on Sun/Mon to 0.8-1.0 by Thu. Snow levels will be high, thus snow is expected only for the highest peaks. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be common elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A light east/southeast breeze persists in a few areas in central and western NM, but winds will continue to trend weaker overnight as the sfc high settles into the eastern plains. High clouds will gradually increase in coverage from the southwest Saturday. &&.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Winds will decrease in speed tonight, then a widespread freeze is on tap Saturday morning. Cool but quiet conditions will be the rule Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday and Monday across central and western NM, with more widespread precipitation expected Tuesday through at least Thursday. Wetting rain is most likely to be spotty through at least Tuesday, but better chances for widespread wetting rainfall exists Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be possible across the highest peaks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 65 40 63 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 28 67 32 64 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 31 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 25 65 36 64 / 0 0 5 20 El Morro........................ 28 61 36 64 / 0 0 5 20 Grants.......................... 26 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 31 64 35 67 / 0 0 10 30 Magdalena....................... 29 57 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 27 58 34 63 / 0 0 5 20 Reserve......................... 32 68 37 69 / 0 0 5 20 Glenwood........................ 34 69 43 71 / 0 0 5 20 Chama........................... 30 61 37 60 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 36 61 42 61 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 29 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 11 62 16 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 29 63 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 33 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 26 66 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 33 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 34 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 29 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 25 62 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 63 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 26 60 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 26 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 32 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 27 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 63 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 68 27 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 61 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 67 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 66 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 62 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 31 63 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 63 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 60 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-217>220- 223>225-228-230>241. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...16  575 FXUS63 KABR 170518 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid 30s with patchy to area of frost possible. - Winds will increase tonight into Saturday, with a 40-70% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Under a clear sky before winds increase, temperatures will quickly fall around 10F in the next 3 hours before steadying out as the winds increase out of the south. No significant changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool temperatures across the forecast area with readings in the 40s and 50s. These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. With the cool atmosphere, temperatures could fall quickly upon sunset, with reading in the 30s. Solely based the forecast low temperatures, have issued a frost advisory for the James River Valley, and a freeze warning further east. While marginal conditions, will lean on the side of caution for these headlines. As the surface high shifts southeast of the region, the forecast area will see increasing southerly winds, with gusts possible exceeding 35 to 45 mph along the higher terrain areas. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. The winds, along with some temperature advection may cause temperatures to become steady or slowly rise Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures will move into the area for the weekend with highs reaching the upper 50s and 60s. The upper level flow pattern through next week favors above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A deepening trough along the west coast will cause upper level ridging over the Northern Plains through most of the next work week. The west coast trough should move across the desert southwest and eventually into the area by the end of the work week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Winds out of the south increasing with gusts 20-30kt at most sites during most of the day. Slightly lighter winds are anticipated over north central SD (MBG), with gusts generally less than 10kts. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ020>023. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for SDZ006>008-011- 018-019. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...10  828 FXUS61 KBGM 170522 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 122 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Warning has been issued for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties for tonight into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A blustery start to the weekend is in store as lingering lake effect precipitation eventually comes to an end this afternoon. 2) High pressure builds into the region this weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures will not rebound much from the morning lows as highs today will only be in the 40s. Strong low-level flow will linger over the region through most of the day and mix down to the surface, resulting in wind gusts over 20 mph at times. These gusty winds will make it feel quite blustery as wind chills will be in the 20s this morning and likely stay in the 30s for most of the region today. The cold northwesterly flow will also support some lake effect showers through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Some wet snow may mix in early this morning but little to no accumulation is expected. High pressure will begin to build into the region later today and will help cut off any lingering showers as it brings a drier airmass. The northwesterly flow will keep skies cloudy into the afternoon, though skies will eventually clear to full sunshine. The first hard freeze of the season is expected tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures were lowered slightly below NBM guidance given that conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling. Low temperatures will be in the 20s across the region. The Freeze Watch for Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties has been upgrade to a Freeze Warning. KEY MESSAGE 2... The high pressure will stay over the region and most of the eastern US throughout next week. A low pressure system will develop along the East Coast Sunday and lingers off the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic through most of the work week. The high pressure will keep precipitation associated with the low out of the region. Gradual warm air advection after tonight will help temperatures get back closer to seasonable normals by Monday. Temperatures will vary little after Sunday with highs consistently in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Some valley locations will approach the 70s for daytime highs during the midweek period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly to northwesterly winds remain in place through the morning hours. Ceilings should break up around or a bit after sunrise. Possibly lingering a few hours longer at KITH and KBGM. Winds gusts expected to decrease by this afternoon. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...High pressure leads to mainly VFR conditions with possible IFR valley fog or freezing fog (Sunday am) at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ044-047. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL AVIATION...MWG  813 FXUS63 KGID 170522 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning is in effect Tonight/Saturday Morning from 1-9AM as overnight lows are expected to dip below freezing for the first time this season (to as low as 26-32 degrees). - The locations that will have the overall coldest temperatures tonight as well as be the first to reach freezing tonight will be for areas concentrated towards the north and west portions of the area. - The forecast through Wednesday remains precip-free with the next faint signal for precipitation coming Thursday (30-40% chance). - Highs SAT-MON will mainly range the 60s with a warmup back into the 70s favored to take shape after Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today (Friday) & Tomorrow (Saturday)... A passing upper-level trough today (Friday) will soon bring height/pressure rises to the area with a ridge expected to follow in behind from the west. This feature will lead to regional subsidence that will both clear out skies and suppress any chance for precipitation through the weekend and for the first half of next week. At the surface, a massive near 1045 hPa high pressure center will continue to build in from off the High Plains/Rockies. As the surface pressure continues to rise today, winds speeds out of the north should only continue to slow down through the afternoon/night tonight. Light to calm winds (speeds <10MPH) could return as early as this evening. As this high pressure center passes through the area tonight, the light surface winds will swap to a south to southwesterly orientation ahead of Saturday. The main story tonight, however, will be for sub-freezing temperatures as lows settle in the upper 20s to low 30s across the entire region. As this will become the areas first freeze of the season, a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 1AM to 9AM tonight/Saturday morning. Though the warning does not go into effect until 1AM tonight, a few areas northwest of the Tri-Cities could possibly see temperatures drop quickly into the mid to low 30s shortly after sunset (common underneath light winds and clear skies). This freeze should only remain a one night issue as the southerly returning surface winds for Saturday (10-20 mph gusting as high as 30-35 mph in the afternoon) should bump up temperatures around 10 degrees higher than today. Highs for Saturday will look to range the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Next Week... Considerable confidence from the LREF members regarding the upper- level pattern next week lead us to conclude that this ridging pattern will continue on into the first half of next week. This feature will allow temperatures to retain in the 60s through Monday with a more notable warmup possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The long- range models continue to also keep the surface winds out of the south with little day-to-day change of surface broad high pressure to the east and broad low pressure to the west (channeling in the southerly warm air advection pattern). The next chance of precipitation does not come in the forecast until Thursday as the next upper-level trough/wave looks possible to slide in next. Though model guidance begins to wane in regards to the timing/intensity of the trough, at least some chance of precipitation looks to be plausible as this next disturbance approaches near the middle-to-end of next week. Details will continue to be refined as this event becomes closer into range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions with clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will stay light and southerly through sunrise. Sustained surface winds of 10 - 15 kts with gusts of 20 - 25 kts are expected mid Saturday morning, with these winds anticipated through the remainder of the TAF period. LLWS of around 35 kts is expected as 45- kt winds spool up in the 1,000 - 2,000 ft layer beginning around 02z Sunday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Began  781 FXUS63 KIND 170521 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 121 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy frost possible late tonight in sheltered locations north of Indianapolis - Widespread frost Saturday night with sub-freezing temps possible - **Freeze Watch** north and east/southeast of Indianapolis Saturday night into early Sunday morning && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gloomy, at times windy, transition into autumn will be waning through the overnight...as strong, broad, and amplified polar surface high pressure settles over most of the CONUS...with its positively-tilted axis from the southern High Plains to Chicagoland, advancing close enough to central Indiana to drop sustained winds under 10 mph by dawn. At least partial clearing has already begun over the northwestern half of the CWA, with SCT/BKN decks expected to continue west of Lafayette/Crawfordsville from fetch off of Lake Michigan that may allow a stray RW over these few western counties. Carroll County and vicinity may be in a small area east of these lake clouds, yet near the pre-dawn waning winds...to allow patchy frost in the few most protected areas, although chances/confidence too low for any corresponding headline. Dewpoints continuing to drop into the mid- to upper 30s by 12Z will guide overnight minimum temperatures, expected to range from mid-30s north/east of Marion County...to around 40F across the region's southern-third and in downtown Indianapolis. Freeze Watch continues for zones north/east/southeast of Indianapolis Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold air advection is ongoing following a cold frontal passage last night. Temperatures have been falling through the daylight hours as northwesterly winds gust to between 20-30 mph. Little additional temperature recovery is anticipated and our highs for the day are likely to have already occurred. Persistent low cloud cover will help today feel quite miserable after the prolonged stretch of warm weather we have seen. Aloft, a potent but positively-tilted trough is diving in from the north. This feature will steepen lapse rates while propelling a secondary front southward. Lapse rates could steepen even more immediately down wind of Lake Michigan as flow passes over the warmer water, increasing boundary layer temps by a few degrees. A band of scattered showers is likely this evening in conjunction with these features. Best timing brings showers to the Lafayette area around 5-6pm with activity reaching Indy by 7-8pm, and eventually Bloomington by 9-10pm. Shower activity could be briefly heavy, but overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. Winds are expected to become northerly behind the secondary front. Speeds and gusts are also expected to increase, with gusts this evening between 25 to 35 mph possible. The upper trough departs overnight and a quick reduction in winds appears likely tonight. Guidance is in good agreement showing speeds dropping to under 15 mph by sunrise. Combined with clearing skies, winds may become calm enough to allow for patchy frost north of Indy overnight mainly in sheltered areas. Overall, our current thinking is winds remain elevated just enough to prevent widespread frost. As such, a Frost Advisory was not issued for tonight. Nevertheless, we introduced the mention of patchy frost in rural areas over the northern parts of our CWA. As surface high pressure builds in on Saturday, the clearing trend continues with winds becoming calm by sunset. Temperatures likely remain suppressed somewhat due to waning cold air advection. Highs only in the 50s are probable despite a return to sunshine. By Saturday night,ideal radiative cooling conditions will be in place. Temperatures in the 30s are very likely with widespread frost. Northeastern portions of our CWA may even dip into the low 30s or upper 20s. We have issued a Freeze Watch for these northeastern areas Saturday night into Sunday morning. Depending on how the surface high sets up, the Freeze Watch may need to be expanded in further updates. Similar conditions are likely Sunday night with areas of frost likely, especially in rural locations. NEXT WEEK Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing surface high pressure remaining in place through at least mid next week...possibly even the entire week. Aloft, troughing is replaced by ridging. These two factors point towards a warming trend through next week. The warming should be gradual, as the advective component is not there. Highs rebound into the 70s which is a far cry from the near 90 readings we saw a few days ago. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Impacts: - Rain showers possible through 09Z at KLAF with minimal VIS impacts Discussion: Northerly winds off of Lake Michgan will continue low chances for rain and celings around 4000ft at KLAF. This could reach KHUF, but confidence is too low to include at this time. The low level airmass will slowly dry throughout the day, leading to mostly clear skies from 15Z onward. While gusts will not be abundant a few isolated gusts to 20MPH will be possible this afternoon out of the NNE. This has not been included in this issuance due to low confidence, but is something that may be added is later updates. As high pressure increases this evening, winds will slowly calm, with a predominant direction out of the ENE at 2-4MPH overnight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for INZ030- 031-037>042-048-049-056-057-065. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...Eckhoff  846 FXUS63 KMKX 170523 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 inland tonight into early Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas, with a Frost Advisory in far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. - Southwest gales may occur Saturday night into Sunday night over far northern portions of Lake Michigan. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1140 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current Overnight through Sunday Night: High pressure moving overhead tonight will allow for light winds, subsidence, clear skies, and low dew points. Temperatures are expected to tank below freezing over most of southern Wisconsin, promoting conditions for a hard freeze with lows ranging from 27 to 32. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of southern WI, save for Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties, where the warmer waters of Lake Michigan will keep overnight lows at or above freezing. A Frost Advisory is in place for those counties. Chilly conditions linger into the morning with a gradual warmup to highs in the upper 50s during the afternoon. High pressure will move southeast of the area through the day on Saturday and southwest winds will kick in, with gusts to 25 mph possible north of I-94. Winds will remain elevated Saturday night into Sunday, decreasing frost concerns. Sunday looks to be dry and sunny, but breezy with southwest winds gusting from 25 to 35 mph. Highs will be in the low 60s. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monday through Thursday: A quiet extended period is in store as an upper level ridge remains in place over the plains and builds in strength through the work week. Expect temps rising from the 60s to low 70s by the late week with southerly winds remaining in place through the week. Frost may occur Monday night in isolated pockets, but warming overnight temperatures will keep front at bay mid to late week. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 1214 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight and winds will grow lighter as a sfc high pressure ridge moves over the Upper MS Valley and southern WI. Light and variable winds should take over between 06z and 12z Saturday. VFR conditions continue into tomorrow, with southwesterly winds becoming breezy late morning and through the afternoon. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible on the edge of the retreating high pressure, mainly along and north of a line from KMSN to KMKE. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to move well east of the region tonight, as strong high pressure around 30.6 inches remains over the Central Plains. North gales are easing and should end over the next couple of hours. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan until 1 AM CDT Saturday morning. Scattered showers will linger into early Saturday morning over the southern half of Lake Michigan. As the high shifts toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in south central Canada, shifting toward and into Hudson Bay on Sunday. This may bring southwest gales to far northern portions of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night. High pressure around 30.5 inches should develop east northeast of the region next week, bringing dry conditions and light to modest winds. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070 until 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Saturday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 4 AM Saturday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  850 FXUS63 KMPX 170523 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. - Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures warm well above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Clear skies & light winds tonight will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 30s, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight through 9 AM Saturday across the entire area, with the exception of the inner core of the Twin Cities metro. Southwesterly winds could pick up earlier in the night across western Minnesota & keep temperatures a few degrees above freezing, but HRRR & AIFS forecasts still suggests freezing temperatures are likely here albeit closer to midnight instead of Saturday morning. Tonight's freeze will effectively end the growing season across much of the region, with our next shot a widespread freeze likely not coming until November, so take care to protect remaining sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected. The cold spell will be brief as the high pressure departs to the east and gusty southwest winds develop through Saturday morning. Wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by the afternoon along with temperatures warm into the low 60s across western Minnesota & upper 50s elsewhere. This combination of gusty winds, warmer temperatures, & afternoon humidity values approaching 30% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The greatest concern will be across western Minnesota, where the warmest & windiest conditions are expected along with drier fuels that missed Thursdays soaking rain. Temperatures continue warming into next week as upper-level ridging strengthens across the central CONUS. Highs in the low to mid 70s are likely by the end of the week, around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October. Dry weather looks to dominate the period with any appreciable rain not unlikely until next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Clear skies through the period. Light winds overnight will become south southwest and increase to 15-20 kts, gusting to 25-30 kts by late morning. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Borghoff  818 FXUS63 KPAH 170522 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost is expected tonight amid a clear and cold night. Some locations may approach 32 degrees. - A stable and dry pattern then locks in for at least several days on Sunday with mostly seasonable conditions expected with mild days and cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 As expected conditions are sharply cooler tonight across the quad-state. Moderate northwest winds should continue overnight with temperatures falling into the 40s area-wide. A 1040mb surface ridge sits over the western Plains with plans of sitting overtop of this region tonight. With plenty of drier air being pushed in with this ridge, idealized radiational cooling conditions amid deep layer ridging, and calm winds under the ridge axis very strong radiational cooling conditions are expected. Frost still looks likely enough area-wide to go with an advisory. Some areas particularly in the northern half of the region could very well drop to freezing as things bottom out. Good model consensus that the upper level pattern gets blocked up for several days as we head into the new work week. With ridging over the plains leading to surface ridging focused just east of the area. Dry conditions with low humidity and seasonable temperatures look likely for several days amid a stable/settled pattern. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s are projected, which is right in line with seasonal norms. A few Pacific troughs will take a shot at dislodging the ridging through the end of the week, but in most all guidance they are unsuccessful and sail well to the north of the region keeping the pattern in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Patchy high MVFR cloudiness should gradually improve to full VFR through the next few hours amid a steady north winds. Clear skies are expected most of the day Saturday and into the evening with winds becoming lighter as we go. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Frost Advisory from 9 PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ this evening to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG  868 FXUS61 KRLX 170524 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 124 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Updated 00Z aviation discussion. As of 431 PM... Expanded Freeze Watch into the balance of our counties. As of 138 PM... A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds today, followed by colder temperatures and continued breezes tonight. 2) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning. 3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low-pressure system traveling northeast along the Canada/New England border will continue to drag a cold front across the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today. Mainly rain and gusty winds have been accompanying the frontal passage, though some thunderstorms could also develop this afternoon. While the severe potential for today is low, a stronger gust or two could be possible with storms this afternoon. Additionally, given wet ground from previous rain, even sub-severe wind gusts may down trees. Cold air advection will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, and is anticipated to sustain breezy conditions into Saturday. Precipitation starts tapering off from west to east once the axis of an upper trough passes overhead tonight. In the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, rain may transition to a wintry mix before precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry air advecting into the region during the day on Saturday should yield widespread dew point values below 32F Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While some modest flow with cold advection may continue on the south side of the high heading into early Sunday morning, think at least valleys in the Metro Valley and southern coalfields will decouple sufficiently to radiate out to the freezing mark for a few hours heading into daybreak. Have expanded the Freeze Watch to cover the balance of our counties for Sunday morning. If coverage of freezing temperatures is insufficient to close the growing season, additional frost/freeze highlights are possible for Monday morning. As of 138 PM... High pressure and drier air build in from the west on Saturday, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering over the northeast mountains. Breezy conditions are expected to gradually relax throughout the day, then calm and clear conditions set in for Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the day, then overnight lows dive down into the mid 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the mountains, northern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and southeast Ohio, where there is highest confidence in below freezing temperatures developing late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories are likely to be needed for the remainder of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure is expected to sustain drier weather from Sunday through at least the middle of next week while a low spirals off of the Virginia/Carolina coast. Although temperatures will trend warmer during this time, one more frosty morning could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As the upper trough pivots across our area this morning CIGs will lower for a short period before climbing out of MVFR/IFR into VFR by early afternoon. The exit of this feature will also diminish rain chances to which the area will dry out and winds will relax a bit by afternoon and be out of the north around 5 to 10kts. Tonight will decouple and be cloud free so there could be some patchy river valley fog but not confident enough to place into the TAFs as of now. Guidance did not indicate any fog development overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clouds may take slightly little longer to clear out today than what is in the forecast. There could be some valley fog late tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 10/17/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/20 AVIATION...JZ  909 FXUS62 KTAE 170525 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 40kts for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As we head into this evening, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the area. Little, if any, precipitation is expected with this frontal passage, with the main concern instead being increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Winds will quickly shift out of the north following this front, with a combination of cold air advection and potentially some daytime mixing helping to bring stronger gusts to the surface on Saturday. Behind the front, we'll finally see some welcome relief from the unseasonably warm temperatures we've experienced over the past week. Daytime highs on Saturday will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Something worth keeping an eye on is the development of a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, although some uncertainty remains regarding its eventual position and the influence it will have on our local weather. While the low itself is not expected to directly impact our area, its position could influence the prevailing low level flow throughout the remainder of this weekend. If it were to stay along the coast we'll see a northeasterly flow that would favor drier air and sunnier skies. If it shifts farther offshore more easterly winds are possible, which will allow for some low level moisture return. This instead favors more cloud cover and maybe even some misty conditions or drizzle. Ultimately how this coastal low evolves will help determine exactly how much more sunshine we'll get to enjoy throughout the next few days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions continue Sunday before relaxing a little as the pressure gradient begins to weaken slightly later Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in many locations Sunday before a warming trend sees afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 70s Monday and mid to upper 70s the rest of next week. Overnight lows will be a bit cool with middle to upper 40s to near 50 to start the week and ending it in the middle to upper 50s. All of this is thanks to an H5 low cutting off over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This spawns a coastal surface low that will meander off the Carolina coastline for a while, helping to keep dry northerly to northeasterly flow over our region. We will monitor the potential for a more easterly component to the surface winds Sunday into the early part of the work week as that could bring back enough low- level moisture to introduce more cloud cover than we currently have in the forecast. If that's the case, forecast highs would be knocked down. But there's not a whole lot of ensemble support for that at this time, but it's worth mentioning and monitoring on our end. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Tracking the cold front through DHN and ECP and within the next hour at ABY. Then, 07-08Z at TLH and 09-10Z at VLD. Northwest gusts to 30 knots have immediately accompanied the front from regional surface observations. Also, a band of MVFR cigs just behind the front which will affect each TAF site roughly 2-4 hours after passage before lifting back to VFR. Winds will remain strong and gusty through 00Z while gradually shifting directions from 340-010 today to 020-040 tonight. The gusts will diminish after 00Z while sustained winds remain around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increasing to Gales. A Gale Warning remains in effect starting this evening and lasting through at least early Sunday morning. Portions of our offshore waters may see gale conditions extend through the entire weekend. Winds and seas remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increase surface winds to 15 to 30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values decrease to 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the wake of the front. Recent rains should limit critical fire weather concerns. However, we'll monitor how the fuels respond over the weekend into early next week as the breezy and dry conditions are expected to linger into next work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Several sites remain in Action Stage with most in the process of falling. Additional flooding concerns are not anticipated the next several days as high pressure dominates the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 52 68 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 50 67 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 70 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 69 55 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>014-108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  932 FXUS62 KJAX 170526 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 126 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Gusts of 30-40 mph at Coastal Locations from late today through Monday. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from mid-morning today through Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin is possible. Minor to Moderate Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: Through Tonight - Gusty winds, especially along the coast Cold front will pass to the southeast of the area this morning. A few showers will possible along the front itself, with showers possibly behind the front due to an upper low digging into the southeastern US. As strong surface high pressure builds behind the front, a surge of winds is expected to move down the coastal waters. While winds will be elevated and gusty inland, they will be higher along the coast. At this time, gusts are expected to remain below wind advisory levels. A cooler and drier airmass will advect south into area behind the front, with temperatures below average Today and Tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-40 mph Sunday into Monday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas. - Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding. - Below normal temperatures this period. A tight pressure gradient remains over the region this period with the strong high pressure system around 1036 mb initially located over the northeast U.S. while a well-defined non- tropical develops over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas. The high will begin to weaken a bit by Monday and the low pressure off the east coast shifts slightly northward; therefore, we may see a slight weakening of the northeast flow by mid to late Monday time frame. For Sunday, moderate to strong north- northeast winds expected at least for the coastal areas with winds of about 15-25 mph gusting up to 30-40 mph, with diminishing winds inland. Wind advisory conditions (for gusts of 40+mph ) are possible for the coast and St Johns River area on Sunday, and mainly confined along the coast for Monday. In both days, the northeast FL coast has better chances of seeing wind advisory than the southeast GA coast. Still quite dry airmass for most areas, but there will be enough low level moisture and low level convergence along the coast for isolated to widely scattered shower activity for northeast FL east of highway 301 from Sunday through Monday. For max temps on Sunday, temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s for southeast GA (about 13-14 degrees below normal) with upper 60s to lower to mid 70s for northeast FL. Pretty large difference in lows Sunday night with upper 40s to lower 50s well inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley, whereas mid 50s to mid 60s for St Johns River Basin and the coastal areas. Veering flow will modify the airmass a bit going into Monday with max temps for most areas in the 70s. Lows Monday night range from upper 40s to around 50 well inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley to mid 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty coastal winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Tuesday through Friday Through much of this period, persistent onshore flow continues as a result of the high pressure ridge anchored to the north of the area and the coastal low/northeaster off the east coast of the Carolinas and the northeastern U.S. This will keep the coastal hazards going across the region, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin. Weather for the inland areas will stay dry with only a slight chance of a shower for the coastal zones. But otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies for the entire area outside of a few areas of enhanced convergence and associated low clouds along the northeast FL coast. High temperature will range from the mid to upper 70s, with fairly cool overnight lows in the 50s to the lower 60s. These temps will be a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this period. A cold front will move southeast across the area early this morning. Winds will pick up following the frontal passage, especially following sunrise. Elevated and gusty winds will then continue throughout the remainder of this 06z TAF period. A few showers are possible along and just behind the front, but these showers will be isolated. && .MARINE... A cold front will move southeast across the area this morning, with strong high pressure building behind it. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the northeast of the region over the weekend. The gradient between high pressure, and the low will produce an elevated flow across area waters. Gale Force winds will develop this afternoon, and continue into early next week. Rip Currents: High Risk through at least Monday, and possibly through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend - Elevated nighttime dispersion along the coast tonight and Sunday night A strong but mostly dry cold front moves through tonight and through Saturday morning, ushering in a dry and windy north to northeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. This will result in good dispersions this weekend, which could be high at times during the afternoon/evening in some patchy areas. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline each night this weekend thanks to persistent breezy onshore flow. This general pattern will continue, albeit become a bit weaker, for much of next week. Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning on Sunday afternoon and likely continuing through at least the middle portion of next week. The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion at area beaches around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning on Sunday, where breakers will build to the 8-10 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Minor to moderate beach erosion will be possible around times of high tide at the southeast GA beaches, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday, where breakers will likely build to the 5-7 foot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 49 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 57 70 57 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 73 57 69 57 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 75 64 73 65 / 20 20 30 20 GNV 74 56 72 56 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 75 59 74 59 / 20 0 0 0&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$  951 FXUS63 KDLH 170526 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday, but lesser confidence than over the last few days. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze tonight, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite and radar imagery show quickly decrease coverage of light and widely scattered rain showers over north-cental Wisconsin this afternoon. For the rest of the day, northerly winds will quickly decrease from west to east as high pressure moves overhead tonight under a passing mid-level ridge. Expect a wind shift to the southwest overnight, with winds actually increasing in speed as a southwesterly low-level jet builds over northern Minnesota early Saturday morning. This setup creates the lowest temperatures tonight in north-central Minnesota shortly after midnight, then stabilizing or actually increasing towards the dawn hours Saturday morning. Meanwhile, calm winds under strong radiational cooling for northwest Wisconsin will allow temperatures to continue to drop out into the mid to upper 20s tonight. Expect a hard freeze tonight, but the Duluth office has ended the frost and freeze headlines for the season given earlier widespread freeze conditions, so no headlines are in effect for this hard freeze. Saturday will feature breezy southwest winds as drier air mixes down to the surface. The forecast continues to resemble about a 20 to 30th percentile of guidance for relative humidity tomorrow, which puts minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent in the forecast. These values are just above near-critical conditions and have actually trended upwards in recent forecasts, so no Special Weather Statements are in effect covering Saturday. However, folks should still be aware of an elevated fire weather risk Saturday mid-day to early evening due to the combination of this semi-dry air and breezy winds. The pattern shifts to feature no precipitation and warming Sunday onward. Continued breezy southwest winds Sunday morning areawide will decrease in speed from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. High temperatures will continue their upward climb, and we will be back into the mid 60s for the next work week with predominantly dry weather dominating the Northland. The exception will be a couple of days of lake breezes keeping shoreline areas right at normal for mid-October. Heading deeper into the next work week, the predominantly quiet and unseasonably mild weather remains locked in as an upper- level ridge anchors itself over the central portion of the Continent and two coastal low pressure systems remain over the Mid-Atlantic and California/Baja region. There are very low- end, 10 to 20 percent, chances of light rain late next work week as a ripple moving through the broad and warm upper- level ridge may occur. However, there is very low confidence on this scenario at this time, and dry conditions remain heavily favored. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions through the forecast period. Satellite shows a few mid and upper level clouds crossing this morning from the northwest, skies are expected to clear out later this morning. Aloft there is a corridor of strong winds moving in from the north. These winds will induce some low level wind shear through the morning hours before we mix out and gusty winds spread across the surface. As the inversion sets up again this evening expect another dose or low level wind shear. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are expected for small crafts from now through Sunday afternoon, the exception being a possible short winds tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening as gusts near 30 knots and elevated waves continue. Winds will subside briefly tonight before shifting to the southwest and increasing across Western Lake Superior again early Saturday morning. A few hour period of low- end Gale-force winds are possible off the Bayfield Peninsula so this will be monitored for any localized and short-duration Gale Warning needs Saturday morning....otherwise Small Craft Advisories are expected to be needed in time for Saturday. There is higher confidence on even stronger and more widespread southwest gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, very likely also necessitating additional Small Craft Advisories or Gale Warnings. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds weaken this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Lower Midwest takes hold into the Upper Midwest. Drier air mixing down on Saturday will bring minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent. When combined with breezy southwest winds gusting to 22 to 28 mph, an elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday mid-day into early evening. Minimum relative humidity recovers slightly to the 35 to 45 percent range on Sunday while gusty southwest winds continue. No rain chances and warming temperatures are expected to persist well into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...Britt MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy  925 FXUS63 KLOT 170526 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect showers are expected to persist in northwest Indiana through daybreak. - Coldest night of the season expected tonight with lows near/just below freezing across interior portions of northern IL. - Dry and mild weather returns Sunday and persists next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A seasonably strong and expansive high-pressure system over the Great Plains continues to build eastward into the Midwest this afternoon, following a surface low moving into New England. Strong northerly winds between these systems are pushing the season's coldest airmass southward into the area, resulting in a cloudy, chilly, and breezy day across the region. A few widely scattered showers remain possible across northern Illinois through sunset as an upper-level trough moves overhead. However, shower activity will primarily concentrate over Lake Michigan late this afternoon and evening as lake-effect parameters rapidly improve. This should lead to focused lake-effect showers and potentially a few thunderstorms shifting inland from southern Lake Michigan into northwestern Indiana this evening. Scattered lake effect showers may linger after midnight, but they are expected to diminish toward Saturday morning as inversion heights lower and lake-effect parameters weaken following the passage of the upper-level trough. Outside of lake-effect precipitation and cloud cover in northwestern Indiana, skies will clear and winds will gradually subside this evening. This will be especially true across interior portions of northern Illinois, where the coldest temperatures of the season are forecast tonight. The current forecast remains on track for a couple of hours of near-freezing temperatures early Saturday morning, most notably across far northern Illinois from the Fox Valley westward. Consequently, no changes were made to the frost and freeze headlines in effect for interior northern Illinois late tonight. Following a chilly and frosty start on Saturday, full sunshine and light winds are forecast as the surface high moves directly over the region. The abundant sunshine will help temperatures rebound into the upper 50s during the afternoon. Another chilly night will follow Saturday night as temperatures drop back into the 30s. Given the light winds, additional frosty conditions are possible, particularly east of I-55 where the lightest winds are expected. We will continue to monitor this period for potential frost headlines. The cold snap will be short-lived as conditions transition back to a mild and dry autumn pattern. High temperatures are forecast to return to the 60s on Sunday and Monday, before warming into the 70s for the remainder of next week with little to no chance of rain. KJB && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Periods of lake-effect rain showers expected through 12Z over northwest Indiana Recent radar imagery showers a steady stream of lake-effect rain showers continuing to move north to south over Lake Michigan and into northwest Indiana. This activity will continue to bring periods of rain to KGYY and regional terminals nearby through daybreak. A few showers may get close to the eastern side of MDW, but no precip is expected there, just FEW/SCT clouds due to proximity. Otherwise, quieter VFR conditions are expected through the TAF window. Winds currently remain out of the north. There are a few lingering spots that feature gusts to 20 knots, but that should continue to diminish sharply through the overnight. Winds, 5 to 10 knots, will turn to the southwest this morning and remain there through tomorrow night. Sunday is looking a little breezier, but currently outside of the current TAF window. DK && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly gales to 40kt are forecast this afternoon and evening, with strongest gusts to 40kt+ likely within the lake enhanced convergence band and with more robust lake effect showers over the Indiana waters east of Gary. In addition to an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening. Waterspout risk is expected to diminish late this evening as inversion heights lower. Lake effect shower intensity and coverage will decrease overnight also in response to the decreasing inversion heights. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ006- ILZ019-ILZ020. IN...None. LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the IL nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  056 FXUS61 KOKX 170529 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lingering light showers through day break behind the cold front passage from last evening. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering light showers behind the cold front passage are expected through day break, mainly across the eastern half of the area. Gusty NW winds will also develop through the early morning hours and continue through this evening, peaking 25-35 mph, strongest near the coast. Much colder air is also expected with highs only getting into the 50s today, about 10 degrees below normal. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As the upper trough departs the area Saturday night some of its energy gets left behind along the Mid Atlantic coast, where coastal low formations is becoming increasingly likely. A tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will produce a prolonged period of gusty northerly flow. Forecast area also looks to be on the northern periphery of some rain during this time. Coastal flooding likely not an issue early in the week, but with a prolonged system there could be issues late in the week as a full moon approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure gradually builds towards the terminals through tonight. Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Lingering light showers early this morning, mainly from the NYC terminals on east will end 09-11z. NW winds and gusts increase early this morning, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through much of the day. Winds will become more N this evening as gusts start weakening. N winds 10 kt or less are expected late tonight, and some outlying terminals may become light and variable early Sunday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Peak gusts could be a few kt higher at times this morning/early this afternoon. End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday-Monday: VFR. Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR. N-NE wind gusts 15-25 kt, strongest near the coast. Wednesday: VFR. NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380- 383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DW AVIATION...DS MARINE...DW  039 FXUS63 KLBF 170528 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning in effect tonight into Saturday morning for a large portions of western and north central Nebraska. This should lead to an end to the growing season. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns Saturday afternoon, for areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions Sunday and into next week, with highs ranging in the 60s and 70s. - Shower chances return Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight...surface high pressure centered over the area early this evening will settle southward across Oklahoma into northern Missouri. A light and variable wind will become light south later this evening, becoming south-southwest late tonight. Light winds beneath clear skies will allow for several hours of favorable radiational cooling this evening. Went colder using the BCConsshort, for lows in the mid to upper 20s across southwest, west central and central NE. As southerly winds increase after midnight, some gustiness will occur across north central NE where lows will range from 30 to the lower 30s. Most of the 12Z MOS guidance have lows tonight even colder in the low to mid 20s southwest and central NE areas. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into Saturday morning for areas near and easts of Highway 83. The cold temperatures should effectively end the growing season across western and north central Nebraska. Saturday/Saturday Night...An upper ridge will progress eastward across the Northern and Central Plains, as an upper trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan Canada. This will bring a notable warmup on Saturday to 70 to 75 across the western Sandhills to lower 60s central NE. Southwest winds will be gusty from 15 to 30 mph near and east of Highway 83. At least elevated fire weather concerns appear probable for areas west of Highway 83. While low humidity from 18 to 25 percent is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes across the west remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some mid 30s are likely in southwestern areas, northern Nebraska should hold in the low 40s. Sunday, A weak cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills. Highs will remain mild in the low 60s to near 70 with sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early to mid week, upper troughing will persist across the western U.S. with a closed low of the coast of southern California by Wednesday. Upper ridging will amplify across the Central U.S. Weak disturbances from the Desert Southwest into the CentraL Plains will bring some increase in clouds. Isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out Monday night through Wednesday, though the current forecast remains dry. Highs in the 60s Monday warm into the 70s by Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, the western US upper trough/closed low will advance east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This will bring continued highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday. Some threat for precipitation as well Thursday night into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored as the cold front interacts will some increase in Gulf moisture. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night across western and north central Nebraska. Winds increase from the southwest through Saturday morning, at 10 to 15kts. Increasing southerly gusts are then expected Saturday afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35kts for terminals east of HWY 61. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-057>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Brown  048 FXUS64 KLCH 170528 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of central, southwest Louisiana, and southeast Texas for today from 9AM until 8 PM. - Gusty winds are expected through this afternoon. The Wind Advisory in effect has been extended until 4 PM this afternoon. Gale conditions expected into this afternoon too. Thereafter, conditions will slowly ease but remain hazardous to small craft into Sunday morning. - A much colder and drier airmass will remain locally into early next week. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s are forecast through Monday. A slow warming trend with continued dry weather is expected through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Wx Map features a large 1035 MB high pressure cell extending across the Central Plains with ridging extending southward across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Mass convergence at Jet level will produce a significant amount of subsidence as cool continental dry air pours down the Southern Plains. A wind advisory has been extended until 4PM today to account for strong gusts that persists through the mid afternoon. The marine hazards have been left place with the Gale Warning transitioning down to a small craft advisory after 1:00 PM. Needless to say, we are dry and will continue to remain dry through the weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low 70s with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s into Sunday morning. If we had a Gumbo Watch, this would be time to upgrade to a Gumbo Warning. Make sure everyone enjoys a warm hearty meal Saturday night or before heading out for Sunday morning activities. Highs again will be in the lower to mid 70s. By Monday, temperatures begin to moderate to the upper 70s as the aforementioned high pressure cell meanders eastward across the Ohio Valley into the New England region. However, the morning will be quite chilly across the forecast area with lows at the job site and bus stop hovering in the mid 40's to low 50s. We'll continue our slow warm trend Tuesday through the end of the work week with upper 80s and some 90s likely on Friday. High pressure ridging at the surface will persist and keep us looking at a dry forecast into next weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 A robust cold front is propagating offshore overnight with gusts ranging 15-25kts across most terminals. Gusts may ease slightly overnight before resuming this range through Saturday afternoon. Pressure gradient forecast to relax Saturday night however winds will still have moderate breezes out of the north while VFR conditions remain. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Offshore winds will remain strong with a steep pressure gradient behind the cold front advancing across the central Gulf today. The greatest winds are expected over the offshore Gulf waters, where sustained winds of 25-35 kt and gusts up to 40 kt will be possible along with seas up to 7-11 ft. A Gale Warning is in effect for these areas through Saturday morning as a result, with a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal lakes and bays where wind speeds will not be as strong. While winds decrease from these more hazardous levels Saturday afternoon and evening, they will remain elevated through Sunday morning, especially over the offshore Gulf waters. Small craft advisories have been issued through Sunday morning and may need to be extended later into Sunday, particularly for our eastern marine zones. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 A more widespread fire weather concern should be taken into consideration given conditions across our area. Drier air is expected to continue to advect in from robust northerly breezes. A red flag warning has been issued for the entire CWA, with afternoon minimum RH dropping into the 30-35 percent range area-wide. The area of greatest concern Saturday will likely be areas along and south of I-10 and east of I-49, where the highest wind speeds are expected to occur. The threat will diminish Saturday evening as winds decrease. Winds decrease closer to the 5-10 kt range for Sunday heading into next week, but dry conditions continue with afternoon MinRH likely in the 25-35 percent range each day. Chances for rain will be at or near zero through next week as drought persists across the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for LAZ027>030. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ029-032-033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ180- 259-260. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ515-516-615- 616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...30  093 FXUS61 KPBZ 170530 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Clearing today with diminishing wind. Freeze conditions tonight. 2) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold advection continues behind an exiting cold front. A band of showers in the vicinity of a secondary trough will continue to shift south before ending by early morning. There could be a few showers with lake enhancement early this morning, though current satellite imagery and model soundings indicate moisture should become shallow by morning, with little support for precip. Clearing should occur through the afternoon under building high pressure. The high is expected to be overhead tonight, with clear skies and light wind. Efficient radiational cooling should result in below freezing temperatures for most of the area. Nudged guidance toward the colder solutions with these favorable conditions. Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the area tonight into Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Model ensembles indicate a closed low should remain off of the Mid Atlantic/Carolina coast through much of the upcoming week, with a trough along the western CONUS. A ridge is progged to build in between these two systems across the Central CONUS to the Upper Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region, and persist through the week. Dry weather is expected through this period, with gradually warming temperatures through mid week as 500 mb heights rise. Readings by mid to late week should be around 5 degrees above average. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers should continue to taper off from N-S by early morning as a reinforcing trough moves across the area. MVFR cigs with low level moisture are expected to continue, before lifting to VFR by morning as moisture becomes more shallow and dry advection occurs. Stratocu cigs are still expected through early afternoon with cold nrly flow across the lakes, though this layer should scatter out through the afternoon under building high pressure. Gusty N wind should persist into the afternoon with mixing and a sufficient pressure gradient, before gradually diminishing under the building high later this afternoon and evening. Clear skies and calm winds are expected tonight under the high. Outlook... Outside of any morning river valley fog, VFR is expected through much of next week under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM  266 FXUS61 KAKQ 170532 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 132 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated TAF/Aviation discussion for 06z. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. 4) Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. Warm and humid weather prevails this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front over the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic. Strong low pressure is tracking east over the St Lawrence Valley, with a sharpening upper trough over the mid-MS River Valley/Midwest. A broken line of gusty showers and a few tstms have developed just ahead of the front from WV to central PA. Locally, temperatures are in the lower-mid 80s with mid 60s dew pts. Instability is meager with only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. The front continues to move SE toward the FA this evening before crossing the area tonight. Am still expecting a line of shallow convection to cross the area with the front, which is what most of the CAMs predict. The most likely timing for tstms is between 7 PM-1 AM. While widespread 30-40 mph gusts are likely with the line, the nighttime timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. Will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better kinematics (though less in the way of thermodynamics as sfc heating has been less here). Temps remain in the 70s with a quick drop to around 60F shortly after the FROPA. The front moves well to our southeast Saturday morning while the upper trough becomes a closed low as it tracks into western VA. A large area of light to moderate rain develops ahead of that trough and tracks across the area during the day. Rain likely ends by midday inland, but may linger through the late aftn/early evening near the coast. Additionally, a secondary, stronger surge of CAA will cross the area from mid to late Saturday morning. Therefore, Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon (and could even fall to around 50 where it is raining). So, 24 hour temperature changes could be in the neighborhood of 30-35+ degrees from this afternoon-Saturday afternoon! Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy N winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 50 mph along the immediate coast. A Wind Advisory has been issued for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck starting at noon Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There is still some uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of coastal low pressure late this weekend into early next week. Sunday will most likely be dry and cool as the low deepens 100-200 miles east of the NC coast while strong high pressure wedges down from the north. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, though most of the ensemble solutions show the low meandering around 100- 200 miles off the southern VA or NC coast. However, there are still hints (especially from the deterministic GFS and Canadian) that it could retrograde back towards the local area on Monday before moving a bit back out to sea by mid to late week. Precipitation chances have increased on Monday (especially near the coast) and have kept at least some PoPs in the forecast through much of next week. The 50th percentile GFS/Canadian Ensemble QPF is 0.25-1.00" across much of the area on Monday, though the EPS has noticeably less rain. Again, it is important to emphasize that that there is uncertainty and the forecast will change. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. The Wind Advisory for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck is in effect until 8 PM Sunday and will likely need to be extended. As winds become more NE Sunday/Monday, the Advisory may need to be expanded as well. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. KEY MESSAGE 4...Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. North winds to gale force will allow water levels to build first over the lower Bay and Lower James River as early as Sunday afternoon. This will allow for tide anomalies to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, we are currently on the low end of the tide cycle. Even so, moderate flood stage is forecast at Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield with the Sunday high tide. As the winds turn slightly more northeast and increase Sunday night into Monday, expect the anomalies to build and impact the ocean front, as well as other areas in the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay. By Monday, many sites south of Windmill Point and along the ocean front are forecast to be into moderate flooding, including Sewells Pt. Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield are forecast to major tidal flooding on Monday. Considerable beach erosion is also expected with seas building to 10 to 15 feet. With little change in wind direction and only a slight decrease of wind speed on Tuesday or Wednesday, expect moderate to major tidal flooding to continue into mid week. Note that there is still considerable uncertainty in the tide forecast especially early next week as the exact placement of the low will be very important in what the actual tide values will be. PETSS still has a significant range of solutions for many sites so users need to pay very close attention to the forecasts through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... A cold front is quickly dropping south across the region and is currently on the doorstep of ECG. In the wake of the front, winds shift to the N-NW, rain chances increase, and MVFR CIGs will overspread the local area. CIGs may approach IFR at the SE terminals (ECG, ORF, PHF) later this morning into the afternoon. In addition, moderate rain across the SE terminals may result in occasional IFR VSBYs later this morning. Rain tapers off from NW to SE later this morning at SBY, by midday/early afternoon at RIC, but will likely linger through late afternoon at PHF and possibly even until early evening at ORF/ECG. Winds briefly diminish post-frontal, but quickly ramp back up with onset of cold air advection, especially between 12-15Z. Expect winds to frequently gust to 30-35 kt at ORF/ECG, and 25-30 kt elsewhere. Outlook: Conditions become VFR inland later this afternoon with gradually diminishing winds, and should remain VFR through Sunday. Closer to the coast, periodic sub-VFR CIGs may re- develop Sunday and continue through Monday-Tuesday, along with continued breezy conditions (winds gusting to at least 25-30 kt) as a nor'easter develops offshore. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front to pass through the waters tonight. A brief period of gale force winds possible immediately behind the front this evening and overnight. - Widespread northerly gale force conditions start Saturday and continue through Monday and likely beyond as coastal low pressure develops off the coast. - There is the potential for storm force wind gusts on Monday as the low pressure moves north and deepens. Winds are currently steady at SW 10 to 15 kt across the waters this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. However, they are expected to increase even more this evening ahead of the cold front. Have opted to start the SCA in the bay/rivers with forecast issuance this afternoon due to the gusts to 20 kt. Winds will quickly shift to the NW behind the front which should enter the northern waters around 11pm this, then exit the southern waters by 4am Sat morning. The high res guidance suggest that a brief surge to near gale force winds may occur immediately behind the front, which is not unexpected with these type of strong Autumn cold fronts. However, this wind will be short lived and will likely relax before the stronger and more widespread gales move in Saturday morning. If this does occur, we will likely handle with Special Marine Warnings since it will be less than 3 hours in duration. The main change in the model guidance is to ultimately come into better agreement with the coastal low developing off the NC coast later Saturday into Sunday. Before this happens, there will be a period of moderate Gales starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday. The winds are expected to diminish some on Sunday, especially across the far northern waters depending on how far south the low develops. However, will continue to keep gales in place in all zones and in fact extend the gales into Monday night. Regarding early next week, the low is then expected to meander offshore on into Sunday before moving northward (and possibly westward) into Monday. There are still important differences which will be critical to the forecast for late this weekend and especially early next week. The GFS brings the low further north earlier, which would bring potentiallya round of storm force gust conditions to at least the central and southern coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower and further south, which would likely delay any storm force gusts during the day on Monday and into Monday Night and keep them even further offshore. Will trend toward the ECMWF and NBM which show the strongest winds Monday into Monday night but keep gusts just below storm force for now. Still, storm watches may need to be issued this weekend if this trend continues. Both models show the low will then meander offshore for several days into mid week with the ECMWF being the closest to the coast and the model that would bring the worst impacts to the local area. GFS keeps the low further offshore but still gale force conditions through mid week and continued high surf/coastal flooding. Needless to say this is now looking like a long duration event with gales likely continuing into mid week if not beyond. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures set today Fri 10/16: - RIC: no record set. - ORF: 87 *ties (2008). - SBY: no record set. - ECG: 86 *ties (2008) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ097-098-529>531. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 639. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635- 636. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ637. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/MRD AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...LKB  244 FXUS61 KBUF 170531 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 131 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch upgraded to a Freeze Warning for areas where the growing season is still active. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chilly through Sunday morning with a few lingering rain and wet snow showers across higher terrain this morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday afternoon and likely lasts through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly through Sunday morning with a few lingering rain and wet snow showers across higher terrain this morning. Chilly NNW flow will continue this morning, with lake induced instability and upslope flow supporting a few widely scattered showers with the best coverage across higher terrain. Cooling surface and boundary layer temps may allow a few wet snowflakes to mix in across higher terrain briefly around daybreak before the showers end, but there will be no accumulation. Lake effect and upslope clouds will linger this morning, but strong subsidence and drying will then allow for rapid clearing with plenty of sunshine by this afternoon. The cold airmass will only support highs in the mid to upper 40s for lower elevations and lower 40s higher terrain despite the afternoon sun. High pressure will build from the Ohio Valley into PA and the Mid Atlantic tonight, with associated dry air and subsidence bringing clear skies to our region. The clear skies will certainly support radiational cooling overnight, but with the high centered south of the region a light breeze may persist in most areas and limit radiational cooling to some extent. A Freeze Warning has been issued for areas where the growing season is still active, but the prospect of a light breeze persisting lowers confidence that temps will drop below freezing in some areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday afternoon and likely lasts through next weekend. Strong high pressure will drift to the Mid Atlantic and New England by Sunday afternoon, with southwest return flow quickly removing the chilly airmass from the region. Highs will reach the lower 60s for lower elevations and mid 50s for higher terrain and the North Country after a chilly start. Sunday will begin an extended stretch of dry and sunny weather that will likely last all the way through next weekend. High pressure surface and aloft will take up residence across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the pattern stagnating for an extended period of time. This will yield dry weather and plenty of sunshine each day for the foreseeable future. A cutoff low will be trapped within the ridge just off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coast all week, but model and ensemble consensus keeps this system well removed from the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Chilly NNW flow will continue to support lake effect and upslope clouds this morning, with MVFR CIGS across higher terrain and mainly VFR for lower elevations. A few widely scattered light lake effect showers will continue through early to mid morning, with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in across higher terrain. Dry air and subsidence will quickly erode the clouds later this morning, with clearing skies and VFR by afternoon. Clear skies and VFR will then continue through tonight as strong high pressure centers just south of the region. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Low pressure will quickly exit the Canadian Maritimes today, with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. Moderate NNW flow will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through this morning, with subsiding winds and waves this afternoon. Thesurface high will settle into the Mid Atlantic and southern New England by Sunday, allowing winds to swing to the southwest and remain somewhat elevated with a moderate chop on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  312 FXUS62 KFFC 170532 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 132 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A Wind Advisory is in effect through noon Saturday for portions of north and northeast Georgia. Gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. - Frost advisory in effect for the mountains of northeast Georgia. Near freezing temperatures and the first frost of the season are likely along ridgelines and in valleys. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A broad, strong cold front situated along the leading edge of a digging mid-level trough is progged to sweep across the state this afternoon through tomorrow morning. At the time of writing of this AFD, temperatures in northwest Georgia are in the low-to-mid 80s, and 3 counties to the northwest -- just across the GA/TN border in Bedford County, TN -- temperatures are in the upper 50s (!). Patchy light showers and drizzle have developed within the cloud shield on the backside of the front, and low-end (15-25%) chances for an isolated shower will filter across portions of north Georgia this afternoon. Most will remain dry. A stout surface pressure gradient will develop in response to the enhanced forcing, supporting the development of breezy conditions areawide. Widespread gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are possible, with a Wind Advisory in effect for portions of north and northeast Georgia to highlight increased chances for gusts up to 35 to 40 mph from late this afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. An important consideration as winds tick upward: for areas that experienced increased tree damage from the glancing blow from Isaias last week, any partially-downed trees or loosened limbs will be more easily dislodged at lower-than-normal wind speeds. Be mindful, and be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture or holiday decorations. PWATs will plummet post-front (<0.5", sub-25th percentile climatologically), with clear and dry and markedly cooler conditions expected on Saturday. Morning lows will be crisp if not chilly for some, in the 40s to 50s. Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s for portions of northeast Georgia, staying solidly in the 60s to near 70 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Crisp Start to Sunday: A dry and relatively cool airmass will remain across the area on Sunday, courtesy of stout N/NE flow on the backside of a stacked low over the Carolina coast. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be the coolest so far this season, with widespread low to mid 40s. One exception will be across the North GA mountains, which could fall to the mid 30s or even near freezing in the coldest spots. Temperatures will slowly increase throughout the day under sunny skies, but will struggle to climb out of the mid to upper 60s. Between the cooler temperatures and slightly breezy northeast winds (10mph gusting to 20mph), the feeling of Fall will be in full effect. Dry with Gradual Warming Next Week: Guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the forecast for much of next week, with a closed mid-level low parked over the Carolinas. North and Central GA will remain on the dry side of this system, with rain chances near zero. Temperatures will slowly warm each day, but remain right around normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR thru period. Winds begin NW and turn N to NE thru day today. Sustained winds 10 to20 kts with gusts up to 30kts psbl. Mid level cigs clear through the morning. Winds remain sustained 7 to 12 kts with gusts to 20kts Sat night. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 43 63 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 46 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 33 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 41 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 48 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 43 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 47 66 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 40 68 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 44 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 48 64 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ005>009-012>016-020- 021. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ006>009- 014>016. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...SM  270 FXUS63 KGLD 170532 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1132 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and surface analysis show a building ridge west of the Rocky Mountains and north-northwesterly winds at the surface. Clear skies and breezy conditions continue for the county warning area (CWA) through the afternoon with gusts around 30 mph possible. Clear skies continue overnight with overnight low temperatures forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire CWA through Saturday morning. After sunrise, a warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper-level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens for the western CWA. Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 60s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s for the area. Sunday continues to be warm with high temperatures again forecast in the 60s to 70s. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s. Skies will be clear with breezy conditions possible for the eastern CWA. Wind gusts around 25 mph are possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning. Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK, through the TAF period. Winds are expected to be from the south-southwest and generally around 5-10 kts. Beginning around 11-13Z, winds will remain from the south-southwest, but will begin to increase to around 10-15 kts. Gusts around 25-30 kts are possible through the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  362 FXUS63 KLMK 170534 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 134 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and scattered light rain showers will continue through this evening. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with frost and possibly some freezing temperatures (over the Bluegrass region) on Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ********Breezy and Cool Today********* With frontal passage this morning, winds have been breezy out of the northwest. We hit our max temps this morning right before frontal passage, and will hit our mins close to midnight. Overnight lows will be around 40. Expect spotty, light showers through the remainder of the day. A surface high pressure will build into the region on Saturday and the low pressure continue off to the northeast. This tight pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions through Saturday afternoon before weakening. Skies will gradually clear by Saturday afternoon from northwest to southeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid- upper 50s. ***********This Weekend's Chill*********** Sunday morning, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s, which will bring frost and a chance for freezing temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Bluegrass counties. This may be upgraded to a Freeze Warning or a Frost Advisory in subsequent forecasts. Areas southwest of this Freeze Watch may be added to the potential frost advisory. In the afternoon, highs will warm into the low-mid 60s. *****************Next Week****************** We will remain under loose ridging and surface high pressure for much of next week. This means light winds, clear skies, and highs creeping up into the upper 60s on Monday, 70s through the middle of next week, and potentially scraping 80 in a few southwestern spots by the end of next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for next week. Northeasterly flow and dry air aloft may bring some chances for dry air mix down next week. If this is the case, we will see drier afternoon RHs in the upper teens and low 20s. Should be a seasonable fall week ahead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs will continue for several more hours this morning. Clouds are expected to eventually clear out later this morning, returning all terminals to VFR for the daylight hours. Winds will remain from the north today, and should remain somewhat breezy. VFR continues for tonight with SKC and lighter winds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for KYZ023>035-038>040-045>048-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ036-037- 041>043-049. IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ DISCUSSION...SRW/JPH AVIATION...CJP  376 FXUS64 KHGX 170534 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry this weekend. - Hazardous marine conditions expected with elevated winds/seas today. Slowly improving conditions are anticipated later in the day into Sunday. - Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in nature. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Winds are still elevated behind the cold front, particularly over the Gulf waters and coast. As high pressure builds in the wake of FROPA, the surface pressure gradient loosens and the winds weaken this afternoon. The rest of the weekend is cool and dry, with highs in the upper 60s-low 70s, lows in the 40s/50s and low RH's. The approaching workweek is similarly temperate, with models largely in agreement. Surface high pressure transitions further to to our E bringing an easterly fetch of winds across our area for much of next week. This subtle difference from our typical SE flow is enough to stifle moisture development and rain chances and helping to keep PWATs around and below 1" for much of the region. The main concern for rain chances, albeit low, will be mostly offshore Monday-Wednesday. Without reprieve from rain (and only partly cloudy mid-upper levels), high temperatures gradually climb to the 80s by Wednesday, and lows in the mid 50s inland and upper 60s towards the coast. BSM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some sct/bkn high cloudiness streaming overhead. North winds have decreased across most inland locations, but remain windy along the coast. With some mixing after sunrise Saturday, suspect we'll see northerly winds increase again inland - not as highs as Friday, but some 20- 25kt gusts are possible. Heading into the afternoon, speeds will begin a downward trend...eventually becoming light toward sunset. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Winds behind the front are still strong over the bays and nearshore waters and a Gale Warning remains in effect through the morning hours. These winds are from the N between 25-30 kts, gusting up to 40 kts. Seas are between 5-12 ft and should gradually diminish later this afternoon into Sunday. Gales will probably transition to SCA's later today and possibly tonight offshore. A moderate easterly fetch sets up across the northern Gulf Coast for much of the work week. SCEC/SCA's may be required at times Mon-Wed in the offshore Gulf waters. BSM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 53 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 63 74 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ436>439. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...BSM AVIATION...47 MARINE...BSM  607 FXUS66 KMFR 170539 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1039 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...17/06Z TAFs...LIFR conditions in marine stratus/fog persist along the coast this evening. Visibilities are likely to improve late tonight/early Saturday morning as a weak front passes through the region, and ceilings likely lift to IFR overnight, possibly lifting to MVFR after 15z Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings are likely to push into the Umpqua Basin around 10-13z Saturday morning, and could linger into early Saturday afternoon as this weak front moves through the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the area through the TAF period. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with today being the warmest * Elevated fire weather conditions for eastside areas and northern California through the weekend * Below normal temperatures for much of next week * Rainfall chances increase early next week with the coast having the highest probability for measurable amounts DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... The upper level pattern is noted by a ridge of high pressure over the region. This ridge is helping maintain the well above normal temperatures we have been experiencing and will continue to see today. For example, Medford is forecast to reach ~86 for a high today which puts us about 16 degrees above normal. Yesterday we ended up being about 19 degrees above normal in Medford. The upper level high will move eastward tonight resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but still above normal by about 5-6 degrees. Additionally, as the high moves eastward, a dry cold front will pass through the region tomorrow. Its unlikely to see much--if any--rainfall but parts of Coos & Douglas County could see a few light rainfall showers that may squeeze out a trace to hundredth of an inch. A stronger system moves into the area on Monday. Model consensus stalls the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south from the main flow, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. This path is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will likely be the main area to see rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low sags south, but as the low sags south we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside areas middle parts of next week. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much--if not all--of the rainfall associated with this system. Will need to reevaluate if the system changes trajectory, but at this time we are not anticipating this to be a heavy rainfall producer for the forecast area. Areas along and near the coast could see around tenth of an inch of rainfall Monday into Monday night. Then light amounts of upwards near a tenth for eastside areas through middle parts of the week. Overall, this is a low impact forecast, but the above normal temperatures and breezy wind speeds combined with low RH through the afternoon hours will lead to at least an elevated concern for fire weather conditions. This will likely be the biggest potential impact in the forecast if a fire starts. Fortunately, we are not seeing any significant wind speeds which should help limit fire spread if we happen to get any new fire starts. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub- advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through Saturday morning. North winds increase and a new swell arrives Saturday afternoon. This will result in steep to very steep seas which includes a Hazardous Seas Warning for much of the southern waters where wind speeds will be strongest, and conditions will be hazardous to small craft from areas around Cape Blanco northward to around Reedsport. Thereafter, a brief break is anticipated Sunday night, but Monday afternoon into Monday night, a west swell builds into the area which will likely lead to steep seas around 11 to 14 feet for much of the waters. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$  771 FXUS61 KILN 170542 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Warning now in effect tonight into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure will build into the region through the weekend, bringing drier conditions and below normal temperatures. Widespread frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures will slowly moderate into midweek while conditions remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) A steady north-northeasterly wind is still noticeable this morning as the area remains in between the low pressure off the East Coast and the building high pressure over the central Plains. Low level moisture trapped within the cooler low-level flow supports a band of clouds from central Ohio into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, developing through mid morning and remaining into the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are forecast for eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Temperatures, which start in the 30s and 40s this morning, will only climb into the mid 50s, about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Into the late afternoon and evening, clouds begin to clear with high pressure building in directly over the Ohio Valley. Calming winds and clear skies support quickly falling temperatures in the evening. Temperatures drop into the lower 30s over a large portion of the area. Upper 20s are likely in the more sheltered locations. A Freeze Warning is now in effect. Additional frost is possible Sunday night into Monday morning with lows in the mid 30s. Temperatures begin to moderate early next week as high temperatures climb back to seasonal normals on Monday. High pressure continues to dominate through the rest of the week, providing dry conditions and temperatures slightly above normal (generally in the lower 70s). && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The secondary cold front has pushed through all TAF sites, with steady northerly winds occurring, gusting between 20-25 knots. Breaks in the MVFR CIGs are advancing southward as drier air moves in from the north. CIGs will likely bounce around between VFR and MVFR through daybreak. After 14Z, the sun will provide enough heating to support a bit more coverage in the clouds, which may end up leading to periods of MVFR CIGs, primarily for CMH/LCK/ILN and perhaps CVG, through the afternoon. Eventually, clouds will clear and any north- northeasterly winds will calm as high pressure moves in. An extended period of light winds and VFR conditions follows through the rest of the weekend and all of next week. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis  794 FXUS64 KOHX 170543 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night. - Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the 70s. - Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front that moved through Middle TN Friday morning had brought an end to record-breaking heat, giving us our first taste of real fall weather. Temperatures this evening were running 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, and the cooler, breezy trend will continue. A few very light showers along the Plateau will move out soon with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight into Saturday. Breezy conditions will continue with gusts over 20 mph at times. The winds will finally diminish by late Saturday afternoon as very dry high pressure settles overhead. Daytime Saturday will be the coolest of the fall season so far with temperatures making it only to the mid 50s to lower 60s! The breezy and dry conditions will enhance the fire risk, so burning is discouraged, and likely banned in some areas. Good radiational cooling will be in place for Saturday night with light winds and clear skies. This will allow many areas to dip into the 30s. Patchy frost will develop, mainly in valleys and along the Plateau. Daytime Sunday will be a nice fall day with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s. Patchy frost will be possible again Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Dry high pressure will stay in place through the week. As a ridge builds overhead, daytime highs will gradually warm through the 70s, reaching around 80 by the end of the week. Nights will be clear and continued chilly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 MVFR cigs are forecast across Middle Tennessee airports tonight into early morning. There will be breaks in the clouds, so pockets of VFR are in the mix. Winds remain NNW at 8-12 kts. By sunrise, cig are forecast to improve mostly by scattering out. Winds take on a N direction with gusts 15-20 kts mid morning through the afternoon. Winds finally decrease and become NE tomorrow evening with VFR/SKC to end the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 55 34 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 57 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 55 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 37 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 60 39 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Sizemore  838 FXUS63 KSGF 170545 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, on Saturday and especially Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview: Satellite imagery nicely shows an upper-level trough swinging through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this afternoon with a prominent cold front draped southward from the parent surface low in southern Quebec. Breezy northwest winds behind this front have been aiding in cold air advection across the Missouri Ozarks. At the surface, a layer of dry air persists with dew point depressions around 15 degrees across the region. At the 850 mb level, greater saturation is allowing a mid-level cloud deck to fill in, with even a few weak echoes being observed on radar. Blustery Fall Day: The cold air advection and cloud deck will prevent much warming today, capping high temperatures in the mid 50s. Furthermore, the increased pressure gradient on the backside of the aforementioned trough is producing frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, making conditions feel a bit blustery--especially compared to the heat as of late. A fairly shallow saturated layer around 900 to 800 mb may allow for a few topographically aided sprinkles across the Ozarks this afternoon, but minimal if any accumulations will come of it. Frost Potential Saturday and Especially Sunday Morning: Clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight into Saturday morning. As they do, winds will also begin to weaken. These more favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across northwest portions of the forecast area tonight. There may be a brief 1-2 hour window where skies are clear enough, temperatures are cold enough, and winds are light enough that some patchy frost could develop, but overall the better conditions will be across central and northern Missouri. Confidence in frost development is higher Sunday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds. Model probabilities of temperatures 35 deg or less (a proxy for frost potential) are highest across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri, ranging between 60-95%. Here, frost is more likely to be widespread. The footprint of probabilities of temperatures 32 deg or less is smaller--roughly limited to the valleys of the eastern Ozarks--ranging between 30-50%. Elsewhere, patchy frost will still be possible as probabilities range between 25-50%. A Frost Advisory may be needed in a future forecast update. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term forecast is characterized by the return of dry and increasingly warm conditions. Ensembles show agreement in developing a broad, amplified ridge across the central CONUS next week as a trough digs through the Pacific coast. This means the return of southerly winds, warm air advection, ample sunshine, and by mid- week, the return of above-average temperatures. Indeed, small NBM temperature spreads lend themselves to high forecast confidence && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Current infrared satellite imagery depicts a 3500-4000 kft stratus deck currently over the Ozark Plateau and associated TAF sites. Despite this, VFR conditions prevail, and are forecast to prevail through the entire 06Z period. The stratus deck will slowly clear and/or dissipate to clear skies by 08-15Z (earlier end of the timeframe at JLN and SGF). During the time that the cloud deck is dissipating, northerly winds will be at 8-12 kts. Once the deck dissipates, winds will be more northeasterly at 3-8 kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Price  817 FXUS65 KBOI 170543 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1143 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A high amplitude upper ridge currently covering the Pac NW will give way to shortwave energy that will push into BC, Canada this weekend. Saturday is the warmest day with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal, or solidly in the 70s across lower elevations. Sunday brings several degrees of cooling in response to the passing upper trough. Breezy south to east winds will fade on Sunday in response a weakening surface high along the Continental Divide and decrease in the flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 213 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Through the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Residual dry conditions with the wind will support elevated fire weather, though impacts will be minimal as the low continues to move in. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front moves through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. Ensemble guidance largely favors another cold front on Thursday as the low moves weakens and rejoins the broader flow. This will lead to even cold temperatures, about 5 degrees below normal, Thursday and Friday. Colder temps are accompanied by the best chances for precipitation across much of the area, with valley rain and mountain snow possible. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1142 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 VFR and high clouds. Smoke from prescribed burns will locally reduce visibility. Local LLWS overnight near the top of the inversion in the lower Snake Plain. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt through Sat/AM, then SE-SW Sat/PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with E-S 5-15 kt surface winds through Saturday. Sunday Outlook...VFR conditions, with periods of high cloud cover. Surface winds become variable 5-12 kt Sunday. Winds aloft will remain out of the SW. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM  981 FXUS61 KCAR 170545 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Increasing confidence in cold temperatures Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds through Saturday, cold temperatures Saturday night. 2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds through Saturday, cold temperatures Saturday night. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered over northern Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the cold front has swept through the area. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods. In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages. Winds will relax Sunday. Temperatures will only rise a few degrees throughout the day on Saturday, and fall throughout the night as high pressure builds in and clouds clear. Temperatures will fall into the 20s across the north and the 30s down to the coast. Lingering winds overnight will combine with the cold temps to produce wind chills in the upper teens across the north and the 20s for the rest of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A strong surface high pressure will elongate cross the northeastern United States beginning on Sunday and will generally control the weather through late next week. During this time, several weak frontal passages will occur. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry. As the original high slides eastward on Tuesday, additional ridging over southern Canada will move into the region continuing the dry trend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Today-tonight...VFR. Some snow showers possible in the afternoon at northern terminals. NW winds 10 - 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kt Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kt Sat night. Sunday through Monday...VFR with variable conditions in patchy fog. SW/S winds 5 - 10 kt Sunday. Winds turn S/SE Sunday Night. S winds 10 - 15 kt with gusts up to around 20 kts Monday. Variable winds up to 10 kt Monday night. Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. Winds turn N 10 - 15 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. N/NE winds 5 - 10 kt Wednesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kt and waves will reach 4-8 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. A Nor’easter is expected to form along the Mid- Atlantic on Monday, bringing increased seas into our waters early this week. Seas will begin to grow on the outer waters in the late afternoon on Monday reaching between 4-8 ft through the overnight hours. By this time, seas between 4-6 feet are expected in coastal and into inner coastal waters, peaking between 6-8 ft by Tuesday morning. Seas will then diminish through Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. Winds will remain below SCA through Tuesday before increasing Tuesday Night with gusts up to 25kt through Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMM/MB AVIATION...JMM/MB  035 FXUS62 KILM 170547 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 147 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions. A strong cold front will move through tonight into Saturday morning bringing light rain to the area. Light rain/drizzle may remain possible for SE NC into early next week before the nor'easter moves further off to the north. In the meantime, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend. Wind speeds and gusts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with mainly marine impacts expected. Should the wind forecast continue to increase, there is a low possibility for a Wind Advisory along the immediate coast Saturday through Sunday as sustained winds may exceed 30 mph and/or gusts possibly exceed 46 mph. The enhanced winds should also lead to dangerous surf conditions into early next week with at least 6 ft breaking wave heights along east-facing beaches. Wind speeds should decrease slightly into early next week but much depends on the strength/track of the storm. For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong cold front is currently working its way through the central Carolinas. The initial surge of NW winds will gust to 20-25 knots with CIGs initially maintains VFR prior to 12Z. MVFR will gradually develop this morning as light rain moistens the low levels thereafter. Some IFR is possible, but continual dry air advection at the surface will tend to fight this trend. MVFR during light showers is expected through the early afternoon. Showers decrease in coverage by mid to late afternoon and MVFR CIGs will continue through early evening, ending from west to east. Dry air will gradually bring a return to VFR conditions by 04Z in most locations. The biggest impact will be strong northerly flow with gusts to 30 knots at times throughout the period. Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions by Saturday night. A nor'easter offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds, but should be far enough away to prevent sub- VFR conditions through midweek. && .MARINE... A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters Saturday morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by Saturday afternoon. The nor'easter will linger to our east through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, marine conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on the pressure gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ280. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/21 KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...LEW  014 FXUS62 KRAH 170545 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Aviation forecast issued for 06z/17 through 06z/18 && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Friday... 1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. 2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder temperatures for Saturday. Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the afternoon. While Thursday night's low temperatures were generally in the 60s, tonight's lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s, but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday's highs, with the return of sunshine likely by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for the workweek. In the wake of Saturday's cold front, a deep shortwave will swing across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper- level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and movement of the upper low. The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high- level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread impacts. For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal, along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based on model trends and proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM Saturday... TAF period: The cold front will be through the entire area by 08z or so, with gusty N winds to 25 kt through 12z. Little if any showers with the front itself. However, rain is expected to develop over the western Piedmont through 12z, then overspread central and eastern NC through the morning. Periods of rain will finally taper off between 18z and 22z in the east. Widespread MVFR ceilings will develop between 09z and 12z and persist much of the day. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR (and potentially IFR at times) with the rain, as well. VFR conditions and dry weather will return from NW to SE from mid afternoon into early evening. Northerly winds will also increase a bit further during the day, gusting up to 30 kts. Outlook: A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent cloudiness and possibly a few showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 25-35 kt will occur Sunday, diminishing Monday or Monday night if the low moves out that quickly. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/BLS AVIATION...Badgett  053 FXUS63 KILX 170547 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight along and west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. - Frost will be likely across all of central and southeast Illinois Saturday night as winds become nearly calm. Sensitive outdoor plants need to be protected this weekend in order to avoid damage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 998mb low over southern Quebec with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile a sprawling 1046 high is building into the Plains. The pressure gradient between the departing front and the approaching high has resulted in strong/gusty northwesterly winds across central Illinois today. The latest regional observations continue to indicate gusts of 25-30mph and these will continue for the next few hours before gradually beginning to diminish toward sunset. Ample cloud cover blankets the region as a trough axis drops southward out of Wisconsin/Michigan. Once the trough sinks south of central Illinois, synoptic subsidence on its back side will allow skies to at least partially clear by mid to late evening...followed by clear skies across nearly the entire KILX CWA overnight. The exception will be along and east of a Danville to Casey line where a persistent lake-effect band will result in continued partly to mostly cloudy conditions through dawn Saturday. While skies will become clear elsewhere, winds will remain in the 10-15mph range through the evening. As the pressure gradient continues to loosen, winds will eventually drop below 10mph and may become light/variable across the Illinois River Valley toward daybreak. With lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s and overnight winds diminishing, have opted to continue the Frost Advisory for locations along/west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. High pressure will build overhead on Saturday, resulting in sunny skies and light winds with chilly highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. While winds will be calm Saturday evening, a light S/SE return flow will develop across the western half of the CWA overnight as the high slowly shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley. With clear skies and very light winds, it appears Saturday night will feature a better shot at widespread frost across all of central and southeast Illinois. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. After that, the rest of the 7-day forecast looks quiet as upper ridging builds over the Midwest. While an occasional weak short-wave trough may temporarily impede the process and bring a few clouds and perhaps even a light shower, the overall pattern is decidedly warmer and drier. Highs will start out near seasonal normals in the middle to upper 60s on Sunday...then will approach 80 degrees by next Wednesday-Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with clear skies next 24hrs. North winds now through AM with speeds at 10kts or less. Light and variable winds then prevail rest of TAF period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031-036- 037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Barnes DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Auten  034 FXUS64 KSJT 170547 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler temperatures expected through this weekend, with some low-lying areas potentially falling into the low 30s early Saturday and Sunday morning. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Temperatures already down in the 40s just after midnight this morning, giving a good indication of jut cool this air mass is. Wind speeds have dropped off considerably and this trend should continue into the day today. Not going to argue with the NBM highs this afternoon, but did undercut lows tonight a little. Wet soil and a little high clouds will keep an ideal radiational cooling night from developing, but its still going to be a cool night. NBM was significantly too warm in similar situation last week so going a degree or two cooler for Sunday morning seems appropriate. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After a cold start to the morning on Sunday, temperatures will steadily warm with highs forecast in the mid 60s to near 70. Another chilly morning is forecast on Monday (although not as cold as Sunday morning) with lows in the 40s. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s. An upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across Texas Tuesday through Thursday. This will result in above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to near 80. Highs the rest of the work week will be in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. The next upper level trough is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west Friday into next weekend. This may bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. For now, have kept low rain chances (15-20%) across the area on Friday given the uncertainty this far out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions and light north winds will continue across West Central Texas terminals through Saturday evening. Some mid and high clouds will continue to stream across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 40 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 62 37 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 61 38 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 62 39 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 60 39 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 60 38 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 60 38 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07  986 FXUS65 KPSR 170545 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1045 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories continue across portions of the region through Saturday morning with gusts occasionally over 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing dust and difficult travel for high profile vehicles. - A slight chance of light rain will arrive into parts of south- central Arizona over the weekend with the better chances focused over higher terrain locations. - A Pacific low pressure system moving into the Southwest during the middle of next week will lead to much better rainfall chances with the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms, as well as cooler temperatures && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... As full latitudinal troughing deepens over the eastern Conus, a mature high amplitude Rex block remains established over the western half of the country. This pattern continues to promote strong sfc high pressure over the central Rockies/high plains, and combined with inverted low pressure emanating from the Gulf of California, an intense pressure gradient has developed across the CWA. An H9-H8 30- 50kt easterly LLJ has weakened early this afternoon as the thermal enhancement has deteriorated, but lingering gusty winds and lofted dust will continue to impacts many areas through the overnight. While lower elevations will experience partial decoupling and much weaker winds after sunset, ridge tops and the typical wind prone areas will likely continue to record gusty winds pushing advisory criteria through the overnight. The combined effect of a significantly loosened pressure gradient and thicker clouds compromising mechanical mixing will preclude advisory criteria beyond Saturday morning. The aforementioned Rex block will slowly open this weekend with the negative height anomaly propagating from southern California into northern Arizona. This places south-central Arizona within a very favorable left front jet quadrant with a weak cold core skirting the forecast area indicative of periods of robust ascent. The underlying southwest flow will also concurrently import thick moisture through the H7-H5 layer such that total column PWATs reach 1" by Saturday afternoon. While these parameters would generally support widespread light rain, a very dry sub-cloud layer resulting from the persistent downsloping easterly winds will battle the ability for precipitation reaching the ground. Nevertheless, given the ascent structure and magnitude of midlevel moisture, some light showers should reach the surface Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with the best chances over higher terrain areas east of Phoenix where sfc to cloud base depths are minimized. Otherwise, partial clearing will slowly advance through the forecast area Sunday with moisture and ascent lifting into northern Arizona. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... The ridge comprising the northern portion of the Rex block will push eastward early next week as the upper low weakens into an open wave and becomes absorbed into the mean southwest flow. Lingering light showers may continue to affect orographically favored areas of the eastern CWA Monday aided by the next piece of subtropical jet energy rounding towards the Southwest from the eastern Pacific. If activity does develop, total accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal. By Tuesday, deep troughing and strong negative height anomalies will amplify and intensify along the west coast, however confidence is exact the timing and depth of this feature remains low to moderate. As a result, notable forecast temperature spread exists during the middle of next week, in addition to uncertainty in rainfall timing and amounts.At this time, the preponderance of model evidence points towards Wednesday and Thursday as the most likely to experience showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the trough passage and the introduction of much cooler, below normal autumnal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0545Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Main aviation concerns will be continued breeziness and lingering slantwise VIS reduction due to lofted dust. Winds through sunrise will behave similar to the previous night with relatively elevated sustained speeds around 10-15 kt and sporadic gusts upwards of 25 kt or so. KSDL will be more susceptible to these gusts due to their closer proximity to terrain features and orientation of the overall flow. Though not included in the TAFs, localized LLWS could create operational impacts overnight due to winds 35-45 kt a few thousand feet above the surface. More persistent breeziness will reemerge after sunrise before a noticeable downtrend in speeds take place during the back-half of the forecast window. Slantwise VIS should begin to improve in conjunction with the weakening winds. Considerable cloud cover will be present over the region, with bases dropping to 9-12 kft by Saturday afternoon. The thick cloud cover will be accompanied by isolated shower chances, mainly from 00Z and later. VCSH has been added to each of the TAFs from about 00Z to the end of the forecast. However, confidence in this timing is low, and it is not out of the question that shower activity moves in a few hours sooner. With that being said, mention of -SHRA has been excluded from the TAFs as operational impacts will be minimal at best with potential activity. TEMPOs that include the mention of rainfall may be added in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases or greater impacts are expected. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Outside of periods of VRB conditions, NE'rly flow will be favored at both terminals through much of the forecast. Isolated gusts upwards of 25 kt cannot be ruled out at KBLH through sunrise. Isolated SHRA will be seen over the region tonight, with some moving within the vicinity of KIPL. However, no impacts are expected with this activity. Considerable cloud cover will be present through Saturday afternoon, with the lowest bases around 9-12 kft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong east winds will continue through Saturday across southern Arizona with the most pronounced gusts over mountain tops of eastern districts during the overnight and early morning hours. Gusts 40-45 mph may be common over these locations with a portion of these winds building into lower elevations by late morning. Speeds will slowly decrease through the day with even weaker winds Sunday through the middle of next week. Light showers are possible this weekend, and particularly over eastern districts, but the chance for wetting rain is low (~10%). The strong east winds will result in minimum humidity levels 20-30% Saturday, but increasing closer to a 30-50% range thereafter. Overnight recovery should be good to excellent. A Pacific weather disturbance will bring increased chances of wetting rainfall, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures during the latter half of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18/Ryan AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...18/Ryan  054 FXUS65 KPSR 170547 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1045 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories continue across portions of the region through Saturday morning with gusts occasionally over 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing dust and difficult travel for high profile vehicles. - A slight chance of light rain will arrive into parts of south- central Arizona over the weekend with the better chances focused over higher terrain locations. - A Pacific low pressure system moving into the Southwest during the middle of next week will lead to much better rainfall chances with the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms, as well as cooler temperatures && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... As full latitudinal troughing deepens over the eastern Conus, a mature high amplitude Rex block remains established over the western half of the country. This pattern continues to promote strong sfc high pressure over the central Rockies/high plains, and combined with inverted low pressure emanating from the Gulf of California, an intense pressure gradient has developed across the CWA. An H9-H8 30- 50kt easterly LLJ has weakened early this afternoon as the thermal enhancement has deteriorated, but lingering gusty winds and lofted dust will continue to impacts many areas through the overnight. While lower elevations will experience partial decoupling and much weaker winds after sunset, ridge tops and the typical wind prone areas will likely continue to record gusty winds pushing advisory criteria through the overnight. The combined effect of a significantly loosened pressure gradient and thicker clouds compromising mechanical mixing will preclude advisory criteria beyond Saturday morning. The aforementioned Rex block will slowly open this weekend with the negative height anomaly propagating from southern California into northern Arizona. This places south-central Arizona within a very favorable left front jet quadrant with a weak cold core skirting the forecast area indicative of periods of robust ascent. The underlying southwest flow will also concurrently import thick moisture through the H7-H5 layer such that total column PWATs reach 1" by Saturday afternoon. While these parameters would generally support widespread light rain, a very dry sub-cloud layer resulting from the persistent downsloping easterly winds will battle the ability for precipitation reaching the ground. Nevertheless, given the ascent structure and magnitude of midlevel moisture, some light showers should reach the surface Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with the best chances over higher terrain areas east of Phoenix where sfc to cloud base depths are minimized. Otherwise, partial clearing will slowly advance through the forecast area Sunday with moisture and ascent lifting into northern Arizona. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... The ridge comprising the northern portion of the Rex block will push eastward early next week as the upper low weakens into an open wave and becomes absorbed into the mean southwest flow. Lingering light showers may continue to affect orographically favored areas of the eastern CWA Monday aided by the next piece of subtropical jet energy rounding towards the Southwest from the eastern Pacific. If activity does develop, total accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal. By Tuesday, deep troughing and strong negative height anomalies will amplify and intensify along the west coast, however confidence is exact the timing and depth of this feature remains low to moderate. As a result, notable forecast temperature spread exists during the middle of next week, in addition to uncertainty in rainfall timing and amounts.At this time, the preponderance of model evidence points towards Wednesday and Thursday as the most likely to experience showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the trough passage and the introduction of much cooler, below normal autumnal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0545Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Main aviation concerns will be continued breeziness and lingering slantwise VIS reduction due to lofted dust. Winds through sunrise will behave similar to the previous night with relatively elevated sustained speeds around 10-15 kt and sporadic gusts upwards of 25 kt or so. KSDL will be more susceptible to these gusts due to their closer proximity to terrain features and orientation of the overall flow. Though not included in the TAFs, localized LLWS could create operational impacts overnight due to winds 35-45 kt a few thousand feet above the surface. More persistent breeziness will reemerge after sunrise before a noticeable downtrend in speeds take place during the back-half of the forecast window. Slantwise VIS should begin to improve in conjunction with the weakening winds. Considerable cloud cover will be present over the region, with bases dropping to 9-12 kft by Saturday afternoon. The thick cloud cover will be accompanied by isolated shower chances starting Saturday afternoon and evening and VCSH has been added to each of the TAFs from about 00Z to the end of the forecast. However, confidence in this timing is low, and it is not out of the question that shower activity moves in a few hours sooner. With that being said, mention of -SHRA has been excluded from the TAFs as operational impacts will be minimal at best with potential activity. TEMPOs that include the mention of rainfall may be added in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases or greater impacts are expected. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Outside of periods of VRB conditions, NE'rly flow will be favored at both terminals through much of the forecast. Isolated gusts upwards of 25 kt cannot be ruled out at KBLH through sunrise. Isolated SHRA will be seen over the region tonight, with some moving within the vicinity of KIPL. However, no impacts are expected with this activity. Considerable cloud cover will be present through Saturday afternoon, with the lowest bases around 9-12 kft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong east winds will continue through Saturday across southern Arizona with the most pronounced gusts over mountain tops of eastern districts during the overnight and early morning hours. Gusts 40-45 mph may be common over these locations with a portion of these winds building into lower elevations by late morning. Speeds will slowly decrease through the day with even weaker winds Sunday through the middle of next week. Light showers are possible this weekend, and particularly over eastern districts, but the chance for wetting rain is low (~10%). The strong east winds will result in minimum humidity levels 20-30% Saturday, but increasing closer to a 30-50% range thereafter. Overnight recovery should be good to excellent. A Pacific weather disturbance will bring increased chances of wetting rainfall, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures during the latter half of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18/Ryan AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...18/Ryan  068 FXUS61 KCLE 170548 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 148 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and gusty winds continue into Saturday in the wake of a cold front. 2) Dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure builds into the region. A Freeze Watch has been issued Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 MPH continue through this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped across the region. As the trough continues to sink south across Northern Ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect rain downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron tonight into early Saturday morning. Given the Lake Huron connection, the primary area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between the I-71 and I-77 corridors. Any remaining gusty winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure gradually builds into the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold conditions. Effective radiative cooling under the high on Saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the forecast area with the exception of Lake County and the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula and Erie County PA where lows may be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures will begin to moderate into early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... High pressure will build across the area through this afternoon, leading to improving aviation weather. Lake effect clouds and some showers are prominent amid chilly northerly winds early this morning...ceilings have risen to VFR at some sites, though some MVFR is still being observed beneath the lake effect. Some showers are occurring, mainly focused from the central lakeshore just west of Cleveland into parts of North Central Ohio...impacting the CLE-LPR-MFD-BJJ area, with greatest impacts between CLE and MFD. Some isolated MVFR visibility can accompany lake effect showers early this morning. As drier air and high pressure work in lake effect will diminish, allowing ceilings to gradually lift/scatter out and any impactful showers to end. VFR conditions then persist through the remainder of the TAFs. Breezy north winds sustained 8-15kt with gusts 25-30kt will remain brisk through this morning before subsiding to eventually under 5kt across the board by this evening. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave heights up to 6-9 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the entire lake Saturday late morning and early afternoon. North winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots Saturday night into Sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet or less under high pressure. Light winds of 10 knots or less are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>011- 013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ012-089. PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ002-003. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142- 143-149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...13  099 FXUS63 KGRR 170550 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 150 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and wind decrease tonight - Frost and freeze conditions tonight - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain and wind decrease tonight Rain and wind both decrease as we move through tonight. There is a definite diurnal component to the rain and we see in the models a distinct downward trend in both intensity and areal extent between 800pm and 1100pm. Mainly dry weather is expected from 1100pm on. As for the wind, the peak in the wind will occur this afternoon and evening with a noted downward trend in gustiness after 1100pm. Wind gusts through the evening will reach 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts. After midnight especially winds will decrease considerably. - Frost and freeze conditions tonight We have gone ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for our southern 2 rows of counties, essentially from Holland to Lansing to the south. To the north of there we have issued a Freeze Warning. The exception is the U.S. 10 row of counties where the growing season has ended due to earlier freezes. We are looking at temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 20s north in Central Lower Michigan to the lower 30s in the south towards I-94. Frost and freeze potential may occur in spots again Saturday night. The best chances will be across our southern CWA where there will be less wind. - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week High pressure will dominate the area weather both at the surface and aloft from this weekend through the upcoming work week. Ensemble members of the GFS and the ECWMF are entirely dry during this time frame which leads to a high confidence dry forecast. High temperatures will rebound from the 50s this weekend to the 60s next week. The normal high for today in Grand Rapids for reference is 61. We will have below normal temperatures this weekend moderating to slightly above normal next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR conditions through Saturday evening. North winds are decreasing but some gusts near 20 knots are still possible through 08Z then diminish to less than 10 knots by 10Z. Winds will increase this afternoon from the southwest with some gusts to 20 knots at MKG by late afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds on Lake Michigan are just beginning to reach the peak phase, which is between 200pm and 100am. The actual peak will occur late this afternoon and evening between roughly 400pm and 800pm. We have had winds reach gale force already, but the more sustained gale is just now commencing. Waves have pushed towards 10 feet in our nearshore area, but should exceed 10 feet as we move forward into the evening hours. Bottom line, the Gale Warning looks good. Southwest flow ramps up on Saturday and from Saturday late afternoon into Sunday we are looking at another wind/wave event. At this point it looks like a Small Craft Advisory event, but it may be borderline gale in our northern zones. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ043>046- 050>052-056>059. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ064>067- 071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...Duke