984 FXUS61 KCAR 170400 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1200 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12 am update...Cigs and visbys improving quicker than previously forecast. - Confidence increased in temperatures and showers. - Added patchy fog into the forecast for this evening and tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. 2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods. In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 04Z Update: Tonight...VFR across all terminals, except KCAR and KPQI, which should improve from MVFR to VFR in the next hour or two. NW wind 10-15 kt, gusts to 25 kt. Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/CN AVIATION...21/ARL/CN/JMM  218 FXUS65 KPIH 170403 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1003 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A beautiful fall weekend is in store for East Idaho as daytime temperatures inch slightly warmer under the influence of high pressure. By Sunday, afternoon highs will reach the 60s across most lower elevations, ranging from right around 60 degrees in the northern portions of the Snake Plain to near 70 degrees across the Eastern Magic Valley and Raft River regions. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 30s for most . Early next week, the upper-level pattern begins to shift as a strong low pressure system tracks south along the West Coast. Although deterministic guidance like the GFS shows the low swinging further offshore before dropping into the Desert Southwest in a split-flow setup, ensemble means still track the center close enough to the coast to maintain light precipitation chances across our area through the day Tuesday. Main moisture transport increases by mid-to-late week, with precipitation chances ramping up Wednesday night through Friday. Considerable forecast uncertainty remains late in the week regarding total precipitation amounts and timing. Ensemble clusters continue to differ on the depth and structural evolution of the southern closed low as it begins to open up and eject eastward. While the National Blend of Models (NBM) reflects a downward trend in QPF amounts heading into mid-week, widespread precipitation chances remain 30% to 45% through Wednesday, increasing to 50% to 70% Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear or mostly clear skies expected next 24 hours. Maybe some high cirrus drifting through at times. Winds look light overnight. Expect winds to pick up slightly tomorrow afternoon, approaching 10kts at PIH and IDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...AMM  985 FXUS63 KIWX 170417 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1217 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy frost expected tonight for south central Lower Michigan into portions of northern Indiana. See the frost advisory for details. - Widespread frost is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark, especially east of Interstate 69. - After the below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures rebound back above normal for much of next work week with dry weather expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Showers associated with some strong low/mid level frontogenesis forcing will continue to exit northwest Ohio the remainder afternoon. The primary focus for additional rainfall will remain back across northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan where secondary surface trough associated with strong positively tilted upper trough is augmenting lake effect rain showers. The focus for these lake effect/enhanced rain showers will shift to northwest Indiana this evening as low level winds veer northerly behind the secondary sfc trough. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for LaPorte and Berrien Counties, although the window for 35 mph plus gusts may be confined to a 20 to 23Z timeframe. Boundary layer mixing may be tempered a bit by the very moist profiles in place, and thus confidence is beginning to diminish somewhat in realizing advisory level winds, particularly after 00Z as a lake-induced thermal trough is likely to sharpen and weaken the low level height gradient. At this time will continue the Wind Advisory and will defer to next shift to monitor for possible cancellation depending on how trends evolve. Lake effect rain showers may persist into the early overnight hours across northwest Indiana as thermal troughing response over southern Lake Michigan matures this evening. The positively tilted nature of the upper trough should allow for synoptic scale mid level subsidence to build in quickly later this evening and overnight resulting in expected diminishing cloud trend outside of lingering lake effect. Low levels should remain well mixed into the early evening hours with some better potential of decoupling overnight. This introduces the risk of some patchy frost development and temperatures dropping into the low-mid 30s tonight. The best chance of frost formation still appears to be across much of southern Lower Michigan into portions of north central Indiana situated between more delayed cloud cover decrease in the west with lake effect, and slightly better mixing persisting east of I-69 into the overnight. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday as the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be positioned downstream of broad longwave ridge axis across central CONUS allowing for extended synoptic scale subsidence. Sfc anticyclone will overspread the region late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with some lighter southwest return flow setting up across the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Frost/freeze potential will need to be considered again for this period. Some minor modification of low level thermal trough is expected Saturday but mainly clear skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling Saturday night and a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark. Best chances based on timing of the high pressure still appear to be east of I-69 where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Some combination of Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings will likely be needed Saturday night. Upper flow pattern will become more stagnant and blocked in nature for much of next week with little overall progression in mean positioning of central CONUS ridge. Gradual day to day moderation and max temperatures in upper 60s to lower 70s and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week. Cannot completely rule out some patchy frost concerns Sunday and Monday nights, but this is a low confidence item at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Northerly winds gusting to around 20 knots will diminish to less than 10 knots by daybreak as high pressure builds in. VFR with light winds and little in the way of cloud cover otherwise this weekend into much of next week. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-014-017-104-116-204-216. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for INZ006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216. OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Steinwedel  025 FXUS66 KMTR 170419 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 919 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values. Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by early afternoon. Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s (attributing to the low relative humidities). For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week, resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than 15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming days. What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms." && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 915 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major changes from previous TAF package...still high conf for VFR through the period with lingering offshore flow and dry air in the lower levels. Onshore returns Saturday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Shifting NE overnight. Onshore returns tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Diurnal wind patterns with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 418 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure over Eastern Pacific and a trough of low pressure along the California Coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes through Friday night. A cold front will sweep through increasing winds to become strong across the northern outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become rough across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain is expected Monday into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. KR && .BEACHES... Issued at 919 PM PDT Sat Oct 16 2026 Temps cool on Saturday, but still pleasant weather. People may head to beaches to recreate, but should use caution. Hazardous beach conditions will develop at Pacific Coast beaches this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds) southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Never turn your back on the ocean! MM/Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Saturday through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  077 FXUS64 KSJT 170421 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1121 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler temperatures expected through this weekend, with some low-lying areas potentially falling into the low 30s early Saturday and Sunday morning. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds left in the wake of yesterday's cold front will linger through early this evening before gradually diminishing overnight tonight into Saturday. A Wind Advisory remains in place through 7PM tonight for northerly winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Cold overnight low temperatures will also linger through the weekend, with lows each morning dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Models continue to keep afternoon highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this airmass behind the front is much drier than previous days, so there is little to no chance for precipitation in the forecast through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After a cold start to the morning on Sunday, temperatures will steadily warm with highs forecast in the mid 60s to near 70. Another chilly morning is forecast on Monday (although not as cold as Sunday morning) with lows in the 40s. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s. An upper level ridge is forecast to strengthen across Texas Tuesday through Thursday. This will result in above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to near 80. Highs the rest of the work week will be in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. The next upper level trough is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west Friday into next weekend. This may bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. For now, have kept low rain chances (15-20%) across the area on Friday given the uncertainty this far out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect winds to become less breezy overnight with a gradual decrease in cloud cover. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 42 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 61 39 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 62 40 61 39 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 62 41 62 40 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 40 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 59 39 60 39 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 60 41 60 39 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...41  129 FXUS64 KSHV 170423 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1123 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Fire danger will continue to affect the Ark-La-Tx during the day on Saturday. North Central Louisiana parishes will be included in a Red Flag Warning for continued very low humidity and elevated winds. - Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Temperatures and dew points will remain low through the day on Saturday after today's cold frontal passage. With temperatures only climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s, RH's will be bottoming out in the 25 to 35 percent range during the afternoon. The dry airmass will continue to work with the elevated northeasterly winds to keep fire danger the primary concern for this weekend. Ongoing drought has resulted in very dry fuels that will easily catch fire and spread. Fire danger should diminish along with the winds beginning on Sunday but dry conditions are expected to continue into next week. Broad upper-level ridging will begin to redevelop over the Gulf Coast states Sunday and amplify through the week, leading to another warming trend. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s Sunday will climb back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday afternoon. Widespread subsidence and the dry airmass will work to keep any shower development at bay and work to worsen drought conditions through the end of the forecast period. 57 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 17/00z TAFs, breezy conditions will persist at most terminals for much of this TAF cycle. Strong northerly winds will continue with gusts between 20 and 25 kts at most locations initially, but wind speeds should gradually diminish somewhat by midnight local time. However, very strong winds will persist just above the surface, especially across portions of Louisiana and into Deep East Texas during the early morning hours, so I did include a mention of LLWS at KMLU and KLFK. Winds speeds may increase again, and gusts up to 20 kts may return again after sunrise Saturday morning. The pressure gradient should finally relax after 17/18z allowing winds to fall to around 10 kts or less. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail. /Nuttall/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotter activation may be needed through the day Saturday in the event of wildfire development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 41 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ005-006- 013-014-018>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...09  230 FXUS64 KEPZ 170426 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1026 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Temperatures remain well below normal on Saturday, but will rebound nicely heading into next week. Lowland highs in the lower 60s Saturday afternoon, warming to the lower to mid 80s by Tuesday. - Breezy east flow continues on Saturday, especially across Southwest New Mexico with midday gusts up to 30 mph possible. - Dry weather over the weekend, then a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Long term forecast favors renewed rain chances area wide, especially into the latter half of next week. Localized heavy rain could result in additional flooding for some areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Overall weather pattern at the moment depicts a stagnant, orphaned upper low over Southern California, and ridging heights aloft across much of the southern Rockies and Texas. At the surface, high pressure remains fixed over much of the southern Plains, extending west into Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. East flow and cool October temperatures will continue into Saturday behind last Thursday night's strong cold front. We may be in for the coolest night of the season so far tonight, dipping to the upper 30s/lower 40s across much of the forecast area Saturday morning. Temperatures will remain quite cool Saturday afternoon, with lowland highs only reaching the lower 60s. This is 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-October. Winds will be lighter as the surface high drifts east away from our area, generally 10 to 15 mph with some lingering gusty conditions along the AZ/NM state line. The temperature rebound begins on Sunday as cold air advection from the east lessens. Lowland highs should reach the upper 60s/lower 70s, an 8 to 10-degree warmup from Saturday. Moisture increases out of the south may lead to more cloud coverage Sunday afternoon, and maybe even some light rain showers across Southwest New Mexico in the evening and overnight hours. No significant rains are expected here. Orphaned low finally opens up into a wave on Monday, progressing east across the southern Rockies. Precipitable water 0.8-1.0" and a slightly stronger 50-knot jet aloft should lead to scattered rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms. Rain chances seem quite spotty with this event, and any rain that does fall looks to be in the T-0.10" range. No flood risk here. Late week weather pattern favors a strong warmup in temperatures, returning the seasonal averages (maybe even a bit warmer than normal) Tuesday/Wednesday. Models seem confidence in strong, meridional jet flow diving down the Pacific seaboard midweek, suggesting the development of a deep Pacific low and thus a favorable pattern for rain chances. Best chances looks to play out around the Wednesday-Saturday timeframe, but it honestly looks like we're facing multiple rounds of rain chances with a train of Pacific low pressure systems affecting much of the Southwestern United States. While QPF in late October will be generally lower than September due to the end of monsoonal flow, less convective potential, and speed of these systems, there is still a risk of localized flash flooding. Any heavy rains that fall will occur over saturated soils from the past few weeks. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VMC through forecast period as gusty east flow diminishes overnight. Surface winds 080-110 at 5 to 10 knots overnight, though gusts to 20 knots may linger at KDMN/KLRU into Saturday morning. Skies generally FEW-SCT170, with greater coverage east over W TX. East flow continues on Saturday, though lighter than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds remain breezy to windy today sustained between 25-30 mph, before subsiding late this evening. Lighter winds Saturday afternoon except locations bordering Arizona. Light winds of 5-10 mph persist each afternoon through mid-week next week. Min RH's will begin to rise over the weekend starting in the upper teens in the lowlands and reaching the 20s in higher terrain. On Sunday, these values increase as more moisture filters into the area. By next week, rain chances will continue to increase putting min RH's over 40% by Wednesday. Ventilation rates range from good to very good today and drop to poor to good tomorrow. Rates Sunday will be poor becoming poor to good early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 64 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 60 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 40 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 38 61 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 47 32 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 62 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 59 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 41 64 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 62 48 69 / 0 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 47 64 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 39 62 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 68 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 36 56 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 44 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 62 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 43 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 63 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 65 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 28 57 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 59 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 27 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 56 37 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 40 61 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 60 41 66 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 43 69 49 73 / 0 0 10 10 Mule Creek 40 64 46 68 / 0 0 10 20 Faywood 38 59 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 63 48 70 / 0 0 10 20 Hachita 42 62 46 69 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 44 64 46 71 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 41 60 45 70 / 0 0 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt  349 FXUS63 KFGF 170431 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1131 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are forecast for portions of west central MN tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Synopsis... Yesterdays cold front has left us with quite cool temperatures today, as many locations are only in the 40s as of early this afternoon. The surface ridge axis is now shifting through eastern ND, quickly propagating to the east. This has resulted in sunny skies area wide. These clear skies will last into the overnight, bringing widespread low temperatures in the 30s. The coldest areas will be in portions of west central MN, where a freeze warning has been issued for temperatures as low as 30 degrees. Over the weekend, upper level ridging will build in. In the low levels, a much warmer airmass will advect in from the west, leading to above average temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the weekend. Temperatures of these values (or even slightly warmer by Wednesday) will persist all the way into the latter portions of next week. The NBM shows high predictability in this long stretch of dry/warm weather, with only a 2 to 4 degree high temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles each day. This agreement makes sense conceptually due to a blocking pattern setting up with ridging over the central US and troughs/lows more or less over each of CONUS's coasts. There are signs late in the week of a transition to southwesterly flow as the western trough digs and starts to propagate eastward. However, how this evolves remains uncertain, so at this timeframe the forecast features a smattering of low end precipitation chances starting Friday. ...Freeze Tonight... The coldest temperatures tonight are forecasted to be in west central MN, which will be in the closest proximity to the southeastward propagating surface ridge. Elsewhere winds pick up quite rapidly after sunset, increasing mixing, likely keeping us a couple of degrees warmer then we otherwise would be. Due to higher winds across the rest of the FA, temperatures, while chilly, should remain above freezing in the mid 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected across eastern ND and northwest MN due to a much drier air mass in place through the TAF period. Winds are increasing from the south and southwest due to increasing pressure gradient as surface high pressure slides southeast. A low level jet (35-45kt) is currently moving into northeast ND and will progress across the region through the morning hours Saturday, resulting in a period of low level wind shear. Winds periodically gusting to 25kt will be expected through the TAF period (particularly during the daytime period during peak mixing). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ029>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...DJR  484 FXUS64 KMAF 170435 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front brings the threat for the first freeze of the season for portions of SE NM and the higher terrain early Saturday morning. - Windy conditions continue behind the cold front through this evening. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Monitoring for low (10-40%) rain chances across our western counties by the middle of next week. More details to come in subsequent forecast packages. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 What a difference 24 hours makes. A strong cold front has pushed all the way past the river, advecting in very dry air and drying out the column. As such, any remaining shower activity should be confined to the Presidio Valley, and diminishing rapidly. Post- frontal winds have been quite blustery, and current warnings/advisories handle the situation well. CAA behind the front puts this afternoon's highs a good ~ 15 F below what they were yesterday. Tonight, as gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat under clearing skies, temperatures will plummet to the coldest yet this Fall, averaging over 10 F below climatology. A few areas in the mountains and Southeast New Mexico could even hit the freeze mark before diurnal heating commences Saturday, and we've upgraded the freeze watch to a warning. Saturday, CAA continues, resulting in highs very similar to today's. Fortunately, surface winds begin veering. These winds will veer back to return flow Saturday night, halting the CAA, and keeping overnight minimums a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Southerly return flow and clear skies allow for tempertures to rise into the 60s for most on Sunday. A warming trend continues through the end next week as Gulf moisture moves back into our area. Chances of rain (10-40%) return by midweek from the west due to upslope flow and embedded shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft. By the latter half of the week, guidance shows more widespread chances of rain as an upper trough approaches the region and potentially increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. However, there is much uncertainty in rain coverage and amounts at this time. This will depend on the track of the trough and moisture quality. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends and details shall become more clear in the coming days. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions and light NE-SE winds continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 39 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 43 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 59 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 54 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 32 59 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 57 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 37 59 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 37 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for Central Lea- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  639 FXUS63 KDDC 170441 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight and a freeze warning is in effect. - A slow warming trend is expected starting Saturday, with highs reaching the lower 80s for mid to late next week. - There is a lot of uncertainty with rain chances and amounts for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The freeze watch was upgraded to a warning for tonight for all of central and western Kansas. South winds will return to far western Kansas toward morning; but light winds are expected for south central Kansas through sunrise. Therefore, temperatures may get as cold in the river bottoms near Dodge City, Cimarron and Jetmore as the traditionally colder spots in west central Kansas. The long term average first freeze date is 5 to 7 days earlier in the low lying areas than the hilltops. Thus, expect temperatures to be several degrees colder in these areas. Temperatures may stay several degrees warmer on the hill at the Dodge City airport where the official low temperature for Dodge City is taken. Broad southwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will return by this weekend and into next week, allowing for surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies, south winds and warmer weather. Expect highs in the 70s by Monday and lower 80s by Wednesday. A large upper level trough will form across the southwestern United States late next week; and this system will slowly progress eastward. However, this far west in the plains we generally need a slow moving upper level low that that has a closed circulation instead of a faster moving and open trough. In the latter scenario, the warm and moist southerly winds generally stay in eastern Kansas and points east; and this is why the winters are climatologically so dry here. The median precipitation for the 15-October to 28-February time frame (4.5 months) is only 3.1" at Dodge City. Additionally, another upper level trough is forecast to amplify across the eastern USA, forcing north winds and drier air into the tropics. So despite a return to south winds in western Kansas, north winds will persist at lower latitudes so that the return flow won't be as moist as one might expect. There may be enough instability for scattered showers and t-storms as the upper trough and associated cold front move east by Friday or Saturday; but widespread heavier rains are unlikely. This is especially true given the absence of a low level cold dome across the plains in advance of the upper trough that might promote moist ascent. That said, the arrival of this trough is still at least a week away; and there is plenty of time for a switch to a more robust solution. The grand ensemble shows even lower chances (10%) for .5" or greater of rain across southwest Kansas than it showed yesterday (15-25%). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with calm variable winds to start. Winds increase out of the south 10-15 knots as high pressure moves east of the area. Good flying conditions are expected. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Bennett  739 FXUS63 KOAX 170443 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning in effect for the entire area into early Saturday morning. Temperatures could be as low as 29 degrees. - There is a low chance (20-40%) of fog Saturday morning. With freezing temperatures possible, slick spots may develop. - Warmer temperatures return next week. Dry conditions continue with our next chance of rain not until Friday-Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies and calming winds this evening allowing for significant radiational cooling. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 30s, below freezing for much of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A freeze warning is in place for our area from 1AM to 9AM. With such rapid cooling with calm winds we could see some patchy fog develop in low-lying areas and near bodies of water. Temperatures near or below freezing could mean we see a few slick spots develop on bridges and overpasses. Overnight we're going to see the general wind direction shift from northerly to southerly as the surface high slides off to the southeast and ridging builds in overhead. We won't see much warming from this just yet on Saturday with highs only in the 50s, but overnight lows Saturday night into early Sunday will only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. Going into Sunday a more substantial southwesterly pressure gradient sets up across our area bringing in warm, dry air from the Desert Southwest. This will warm temperatures into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon. A deepening trough slides down the West Coast early next week leading to amplified southwesterly flow pushing into the Four Corners region. Models continue to delay when this trough ejects eastward toward our area, delaying precipitation chances, now more likely Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be warming with highs warming into the 70s by Wednesday and near 80 Thursday and Friday. One concern to monitor next week is the potential for fire weather concerns. With dry weather and warming temperatures, fuels will be drying out more through the week. Right now the windiest period looks to be right as precipitation arrives on Friday, but any windier periods that may develop earlier in the week could mean dangerous fire conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions and clear skies favored through the period. Some guidance hints at patchy fog development in river valleys and low-lying areas, but chances of impacting TAF sites is below 20%. Winds will remain light overnight, becoming southerly to southwesterly and gusting 20-30 kts by mid to late morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA  951 FXUS65 KSLC 170446 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1046 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will return far southern Utah late Sunday morning into Sunday evening. - More widespread precipitation will develop Wednesday morning and impact much of the region. Most areas will see between 0.50 and 1.50 inches of precipitation by Friday evening, with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00 inches. - Snow levels look to remain above 9000-9500 feet through Friday morning, falling to near 8000-8500 feet by Friday evening. Total snow accumulations above 9500 feet will be 4 to 8 inches or so by Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains across Utah this evening, with nearly clear skies across the entire state. Another warm and largely dry day can be expected Saturday, with temperatures near normal levels for mid-October. The eastern Pacific remains quite active, with the remnants of Simon near the southern tip of Baja California and Hurricane Trudy off the southwestern Mexico coast. Another area of potential tropical development lurks south of Trudy, 70% chance of cyclone formation in the next 7 days. An active eastern Pacific is always a wildcard in the weather pattern across the Southwest, especially with an active northern stream. An upper level low near the southern California coast will continue to pull tropical moisture north from the remnants of Simon. As this upper level low ejects ahead of the next Pacific trough Sunday, an area of modest moisture advection will reach southern Utah by late Sunday morning. With PWs around 90-95th percentile, sufficient moisture will exist for any thunderstorms to have a threat of locally heavy rainfall. The previously mentioned upper level trough will slowly dig down the California coast Tuesday. While trends have shifted a bit later, now expect broad upper level diffluence across much of Utah by Wednesday morning. A portion of the guidance has shifted toward a dry slot building into Utah by Wednesday afternoon, with a break in the precipitation until the upper level low starts to shift eastward into the Desert Southwest Thursday. Precipitation may continue through at least the first half of weekend as several upper level lows rotate through the region. While flooding is not expected with this activity, a good, widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation with locally higher amounts is the most probable range. No headlines are needed at this time. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail under clear skies at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Generally light southeasterly winds continue through Saturday morning, switching northwesterly after 20z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows through Saturday; KSGU will see light winds overnight before enhanced easterly winds redevelop Saturday afternoon. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Whitlam For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  038 FXUS63 KUNR 170449 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. - Warm and dry weather expected through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major forecast changes needed with this evening's update. Massaged NBM-led wind gusts down in our forecast grids overnight to better match observational trends, as they were too high. Otherwise...high temperatures in the 70s are still ON for tomorrow (Saturday) under mostly sunny skies and dry conditions! Enjoy the generally pleasant and low-impact weekend ahead. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mild and dry afternoon on tap as upper level ridge builds in the western US. Drier weather and warming temps expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build. With humidities dropping into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow, elevated fire wx conditions may develop over portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD where breezy southwest winds will develop in the afternoon. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late in the weekend. Closed upper low makes its way onshore over southern CA by Sunday. This system transforms to an open wave as treks northeastward across the desert Southwest and the Rockies. It should pass to our south early in the week with the main impacts being breezy southeasterly winds across portions of our area Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures next week will continue to be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s to 70s across much of the area. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Schweigert  048 FXUS63 KEAX 170449 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will diminish with temperatures falling into the 30s throughout Friday evening. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. - Temperatures in the 70s and 80s return for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the advection of cooler air in the wake of yesterdays cold front, temperatures throughout the rest of the day today will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Synoptically, a 500mb positively tilted trough is digging over our region, with strong winds aloft as the jet stream passes right overhead. This has allowed for a large pressure gradient in response to high pressure over the western Great Plains, and the low pressure system that exited to our east yesterday. As a result, expect gusty winds out of the north up to 30mph, before diminishing in the evening hours as we lose the daytime mixing. Throughout the evening and overnight hours, the surface high to our west, along with dry air to our north will both approach our area. This will help push off any remaining cloud cover, and allow temperatures to drop into the 30s. Portions of areas north of Interstate 70 will likely dip down into the low 30s, prompting the issuance of a Freeze Warning to our northern counties. The rest of the area will get down into the mid-30s, with many of those areas having a Frost Advisory in effect. Precaution will include protecting any sensitive plants, crops, and vegetation. Saturday and Sunday will be quiet as our trough moves off to the east, along with the high pressure approaching. We will also see little if any cloud cover this weekend, as drier air advects from our north. Temperatures will also climb back up into the 60s, especially on Sunday as pressure heights increase and warm air advection moves into our region. Conditions will remain quiet throughout next week, with the ridge staying in place, and allowing southerly flow to advect warm air. Temperatures then will return into the 70s and 80s by the middle part of the week. While this happens, a trough will begin to develop off the west coast, and will strengthen as it interacts with a subtropical jet. As this disturbance gets its act together, it will move into our area by late next week and into the weekend. Exact timing and effects still remain to be seen, as certainty will increase as we get closer to the time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Winds remain light and variable generally from the north becoming southerly late morning. Winds accelerate slightly around 5-10 knots during the afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>007-011>016- 020. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017-021>025- 028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bjork AVIATION...Pesel  160 FXUS64 KFWD 170453 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1153 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and quiet weather will continue through early next week. - Above normal temperatures return late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cooler and much drier air has spread into North Texas behind yesterday's cold front and this will continue through the weekend as a 1037 mb surface high settles into the Mid South. Strong north winds have diminished late this evening and will continue to run 5-10 kt through the overnight hours. As the surface ridge axis shifts to the east on Sunday, a light southerly wind will return, but moisture will remain sparse with PW values less than 1/2 inch which is around the 10th percentile for this time of year. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s today and right around 70 on Sunday while overnight lows dip into the upper 30s and low 40s early Sunday morning. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After an exceptional weekend weatherwise, we'll start the new week off under the continued influence of surface high pressure, although the center of the anticyclone will be displaced well to our east. A weak disturbance will eject out of the Desert Southwest late Monday and spread some high clouds across the Southern Plains. Moisture should be too limited for any precipitation. Otherwise, the Southern Plains will become sandwiched between an amplifying trough off the West Coast and a trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Mid level ridging and weak southwesterly flow aloft will promote a warming trend through the middle and latter part of the week when temperatures should be back in the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. No precipitation is expected through the week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with north winds generally around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 66 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 49 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 45 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 44 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 48 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 46 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 68 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 48 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 42 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  164 FXUS66 KPQR 170453 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 954 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry through this evening before a weak cold front brings low to moderate chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Low chances for rain on Monday as a low pressure system likely remains well offshore. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another chance for light rain returns Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge shifting east over the Canadian Rockies while southwest flow increases aloft over the Pacific NW. Warm and dry weather continues through this evening while offshore surface pressure gradients weaken and the flow turns back onshore. Winds become more southerly ahead of a weak cold front that will approach the coast later this evening. As an upper level shortwave trough lifts across northwestern WA early Saturday, chances for light rain will increase along the coast and then spread inland through Sat morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Newport at the coast and from Eugene northward along the I-5 corridor. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. Dry weather is expected on Sunday as a relatively flat shortwave ridge passes over the region. Seasonable temperatures continue with highs peaking in the mid-60s for most interior lowlands and mid-50s to lower 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. /DH && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Night...There is generally good agreement among models and their ensembles that a rather robust low pressure system will move across the northeastern Pacific toward the Oregon coast early Monday, but remain far enough offshore before dropping south to bring any meaningful impacts to the area. In fact, chances for even light rain have generally decreases to around 25% or less, mainly near the coast and Coast Range south of Astoria. The upper level trough over the Pacific is expected to split with the main low pressure area moving south toward the central California coast on Tuesday. Ensemble clusters remain in decent agreement for the upper level low to persist near the California coast on Wednesday, while shortwave ridging nudges into the Pacific NW. There is high confidence for dry conditions to persist across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 60s. More uncertainly returns later next week as another upper level trough begins to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska. Chances for rain increase on Thursday, though currently remain less than 40%. /DH && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Sunday...Currently VFR inland and LIFR fog/stratus along the coast. A frontal system approaches from the northwest, expected to arrive at KAST by 07Z Sat, KPDX by 12Z Sat, and KEUG by 13Z Sat. This system will move through the airspace rather quickly, resulting in the possibility of only brief MVFR conditions and rain. There is limited confidence for rain at various terminals, with the highest confidence along the north OR/south WA coast (KAST, KTMK). While most coastal terminals will stay under LIFR/IFR conditions until at least 18Z Sat, KAST may be the one exception as the frontal system could provide enough mixing to clear the stratus out by 11-13Z Sat. As for inland terminals, there is a 30% chance of rain and 30-60% chance of MVFR CIGs between 11-16Z Sat. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with high cloud coverage at inland terminals through the rest of the TAF period. While KAST will likely stay VFR through the remainder of the period after 11-13Z Sat, there little confidence regarding conditions at KONP, with probabilistic guidance suggesting low chances (15-25%) of LIFR/IFR conditions but deterministic guidance suggesting fog. Expect mostly southerly winds under 8 kt overnight, then becoming north to northwesterly around 5 to 10 kt by the afternoon. KONP will be the one exception, with sustained winds around 8 to 12 kt and gusts up to 18 kt between 21Z Sat and 03Z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mostly VFR conditions with increasing high cloud cover through the TAF period. A passing front will bring chances for MVFR CIGs and light rain between 12-15Z Sat. Southerly winds under 8 kt ahead of the frontal system will become northwesterly by the afternoon. ~12 && .MARINE...Winds back today into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which will traverse the waters late tonight, before veering out of the northwest Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Seas of 5-7 ft at around 12 seconds otherwise continue through Saturday. The mid-period northwest swell will then build over the weekend, with seas rising to 8-10 ft. Chances for seas to exceed 10 ft reach 10-20% beyond 30 NM north of Cape Falcon. This swell will also pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the coast while overall seas remain relatively benign; caution should be used by those in or near the water along coastal beaches through this weekend. As another weather system looks to track southward well offshore of the Oregon and Washington coasts early next week, and may bring a period of steeper seas Monday into Tuesday although there remains uncertainty in the timing and potential peak wave height. The latest forecast depicts the westerly swell reaching 11-12 ft at 12-14 seconds Monday afternoon and evening before easing below 10 ft by Tuesday morning, with a 10-20% chance significant wave heights reach 15 ft or higher beyond 20 NM. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  199 FXUS64 KHUN 170454 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler temperatures will move in over the weekend in the wake of a cold front. - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will last through Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday and Monday mornings in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Tennessee Valley now sits comfortably in the wake of a cold front that moved south through the area this afternoon. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s as of 9pm with breezy north/northwesterly winds. Temps will continue to fall into the morning hours bringing the coldest airmass we have felt since spring with lows falling into the low to mid 40s across most locations. Gusty northerly winds should prevent fog formation overnight as we see a temporary break in a mid level stratus deck before additional clouds move into the area during the early morning hours. Saturday will be breezy at times but much more comfortable temperature wise than what we saw earlier this week. Northerly winds will gradually slacken through the afternoon as cloud cover begins to thin over the area, leaving pleasant conditions with temps topping out in the low to mid 60s. We should see the sun return by around noon tomorrow with wind gusts up to 20-25mph through the early evening hours. Enjoy the fall weather! && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will expand over the eastern CONUS toward the later half of the weekend as low pressure moves east off the Atlantic coast and upper ridging begins to build over the Midwest and into the Southeast. Large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place with plenty of sunshine expected during the day. One thing we will be monitoring is the potential for patchy frost in sheltered and high elevations both Sunday and Monday mornings as temps dip down into the upper 30s across portions of southern TN and northeast AL. Afternoon highs will be very nice through the short term period, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Overall, it looks like the Fall-like weather will largely continue through Friday. A stout upper ridge will build over the central CONUS and into the South this next week as an upper trough persists over the eastern seaboard. By Thursday/Friday, the upper ridge starts to push eastward as a shortwave trough swings over the north-central portion of the country. Meanwhile, surface high pressure looks to remain entrenched over the Great Lakes and down into the Deep South through the week. Overall, little to no rainfall will be the theme through this next work week. Highs warm into the 70s for much of the week before increasing into the lower 80 degrees for some locations by late week as the axis of the aforementioned upper ridge moves over the the region. Lows will generally remain in the 40s for most of the week. Although, some locations may see lows around 50 degrees by Thursday night. Ultimately, it might be a good idea to grab at least a light jacket when heading out the door this week! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions have returned as drier air has dissipated cloud cover temporarily. However, gusty north to north-northeast winds between 15-25 kts will persist through the day on Saturday. A glance at satellite suggests some BKN MVFR decks will briefly return between 10-15z this morning, before scattering out by the afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24  224 FXUS65 KVEF 170455 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 954 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds are diminishing, leading to calmer and cooler weather into the weekend. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the next Friday. The stronger hazardous winds have subsided, with most of the areas seeing lingering breezy winds that will diminish into the evening. Saturday will offer another batch of breezy afternoon winds, but Sunday will be on the quieter side. Temperatures will also reduce into the weekend with Saturday and Sunday seeing highs roughly 5 degrees below average for most areas (upper 70s and low 80s) with the main exception being Death Valley which will be right around average: in the low 90s. The next work week will see breezy winds return as another through pattern begins to approach the region, and with the northwesterly flow, temperatures look to remain on the cool side. As this trough pushes closer to the region, it will tab into some moisture from the Pacific and transport some showers into the region. Models are still struggling to nail the timing for initial rain chances and there is good potential for the time of arrival to be delayed, but the current official forecast calls for spotty showers to arrive early Tuesday. These rain chances look to become more widespread into that evening, with rain chances continuing to increase into Wednesday as the trough centers over southern California. The orientation of the trough and it's associated low pressure center at that time will offer a direct line of moisture transport into the area offering our best chances for rain and increased rain rate. Unfortunately this is where a lot of the models begin to struggle, with some slowing the low pressure's movement, and others pushing multiple lows through the area. Both outcomes call for rain chances to last into that weekend, but greatly differ on rainfall amounts and overall impacts. The current forecast shows lingering rain into the weekend, but nothing largely impactful. Much can change in our longer term forecast, so be sure to check in as it develops! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Northerly winds persist into the overnight hours; however speeds have largely fallen to or below 11 kt and should continue the diminishing trend. Directions may become variable at times towards the early morning hours with speeds under 6 kt. Northeast winds return Saturday around and after 16z, although speeds will be lighter than on Friday and should remain below 10 kt. More typical southwest to west winds are expected after sunset Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday, with mainly clear skies through tonight, followed by increasing mid- and high-level clouds tomorrow morning and afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will continue diminishing into the overnight hours at all sites, with most areas seeing speeds fall below 10 knots. KIFP is the exception as winds are funneled through the terrain in the CRV with sustained winds 10- 15 kt persisting through around 10z before slowly diminishing. Winds on Saturday favor a N to NE direction and will be lighter, with speeds generally remaining 10 knots or less in most areas. KDAG and KIFP have the best chance at seeing gusts upwards of 20 kt at times though. VFR conditions will prevail, with increasing mid to high clouds spreading from south to north Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Murdock AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  302 FXUS64 KLUB 170457 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures remain cool through the weekend, then rise back near or just above normal next week. - Dry weather is expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quiet and cool weather continues across West TX as a weak upper level ridge axis builds overhead. North winds have finally decreased as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of a ~1038 mb surface ridge, and we expect winds to become calm by sunrise as this ridge axis centers directly over our area. High level cloud cover ended up persisting a bit longer than expected this evening, but has also begun to thin and retreat southward, a trend which will continue overnight. These conditions will favor strong radiational cooling, supporting the coldest lows of the season thus far. Lows early Saturday morning are expected to be in the upper 20s to near 30 over the SW Panhandle and northern South Plains, and will likely be closer to 32 (or even a bit warmer) over the rest of the Caprock. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all areas on the Caprock. Lower elevation locations east of the escarpment are currently expected to remain above freezing tonight. Sunny skies and calm winds are expected on Saturday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side with highs near 60 degrees. SSW winds are then expected to increase Saturday evening, and while it will still be unseasonably cool Saturday night with lows in the 30s, the stronger winds are expected to keep sub-freezing conditions more limited on Sunday morning compared to Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday begins a warming trend as weak ridging persists aloft and southwesterly surface flow continues to intensify. Models are now in good agreement keeping a series of upper level disturbances well to our west through the first half of the week, which keeps precipitation chances near zero over West TX through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will also steadily warm throughout the week as as a ~590dam ridge axis builds over the region. This will result in several days of temperatures near and above average with daily highs in the mid 70s Mon-Tue and upper 70s to low 80s Wed- Fri. Models then diverge regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern late in the week with differences in how quickly the broad upper level troughing shifts eastward. Depending on how quickly this occurs, showers may return to the forecast area during the Wed-Fri timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Light winds and VFR are expected through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01  273 FXUS65 KPUB 170456 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1056 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hard freeze most (but not all) of plains tonight. - Warm dry weather most of plains into late week. - Quite a bit of beneficial moisture for the Continental Divide (especially San Juans) during most of this period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Main concern in the short term will be cold temperatures early tomorrow morning. Guidances continues to show temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s over nearly all of the plains. For this reason a Freeze Warning has been issued for the plains. With that said, some of the plains will likely stay above freezing as downslope flow is expected along the mtn/plains interface, and areas just immediately east of the mtns will likes stay above freezing. I should note that the San Luis Valley has had a hard freeze the last couple of night, and thus no more frost/freeze highlights will be issued for the SLV. For tomorrow, it will start to warm up, and temperature will warm up into the lower 70s most of the plains, with 60s in the valleys. It will be dry across the region tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The good new in the long term forecast is we are likely to see quite a bit of precipitation during this period over the western sections of the forecast area, especially along the San Juan mountains. By Sunday, moisture will increase over the southwest US and push to the northeast. Showers will develop over the San Juans by late Sunday as a weak disturbance over the SW moves over the region. A more substantial trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest Monday and then slowly amplify and drop south-southeast through the week. This trough promises to bring much more substantial moisture to the San Juans by mid week. This troughiness is expected to continue over the region into next weekend. For the remainder of the region, especially the plains, It will likely remain dry and unseasonably warm. Expect max temps on the plains to be in the 70s to around 80F during this period, which is about 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The best chance of some precip over the lower elevations will not occur until next weekend. Although the ContDvd is likely to see quite a bit of precip, temps are unseasonably warm, so snow levels will likely be quite high, The best chance for substantial accumulating snow over most of the mtns will not occur until the trough is actually moving over the region, and this will not occur until mid to late week. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with light diurnal wind cycle under 12 kts expected. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...PETERSEN