048 FXUS66 KSEW 170304 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 804 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE... Warm conditions have come to an end this evening as a frontal system approaches the region, bringing a round of showers along with it. Seas across the outer coastal waters will rise early Saturday morning as the system moves over the region, resulting in the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for waves 10 feet or higher across the outer coastal waters. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track with a return to more fall-like weather over the weekend. 15 && .SYNOPSIS... Wetter and cooler weather arrives tonight into Saturday. Sunday will remain cool with showers in the mountains. Conditions look to dry up through the first half of the week with a weak front may reaching the area on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A ridge will shift eastward tonight into Saturday, allowing a trough and a front to move through the area. At this time, we're continuing to see the bulk of the rain falling late tonight into the early morning, affecting areas along the coast and the mountains. Post front, we'll see a convergence zone set up along the Snohomish/King county line for lingering showers. The high temperature will cool to temps in the upper 50s, to lower 60s. Cooler but dry on Sunday with lingering showers in the Cascades, high temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest ensemble guidance shows an upper level low off the coast on Monday, barely clipping our area, resulting in mostly a dry day, with areas along the coast seeing a shower or two. This system will weaken into Tuesday as it rotates away from our area, leaving western WA in light and dry offshore flow. High temps stay in the upper 50s, with a weak front slated to enter the area Wednesday into Thursday for a chance of rain. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... VFR cigs and visbys have returned to western Washington this afternoon. Surface winds are light and generally south to southwesterly at 7 kts or less. Expect these conditions to continue into this evening. The next weather system will arrive overnight into Saturday morning, bringing light rain to much of the region. Cigs are expected to go down to MVFR between 07-09Z for all terminals except KOLM where IFR cigs are more likely. Rain will generally ease after 17Z with VFR cigs for the remainder of the day. KSEA...VFR cigs are to continue this afternoon and evening with southwesterly flow. The next weak frontal system will be arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain will be done by 17Z, with isolated showers possible in the afternoon. Cigs tomorrow morning may become MVFR for brief periods of time, but the prevailing category will be VFR. 21 && .MARINE... A frontal system will move through late tonight into Saturday morning. Seas will be between 8-10 feet tomorrow, more so in the offshore waters. High pressure building over the waters Saturday afternoon will remain through Sunday. Another system will move by west of the coastal waters Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday with seas subsiding back down to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday. Inherited small craft advisory for westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca for Saturday still looks good and will remain in place. Given current forecast for seas, will also add a small craft advisory for the Outer Coastal waters as seas look to be steadily around 10 ft for that zone for much of the day. 21/18 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-EastEntrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$  213 FXUS61 KOKX 170308 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1108 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening preceded by a line of showers and a isolated thunderstorms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled in coordination with SPC. Thunderstorms have weakened over the last hour, with a notable decrease in lightning activity. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible, but scattered severe thunderstorms does not look to pose a threat any longer. The cold front is about halfway through the forecast area. The line of showers with an isolated thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front will continue moving east through eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The line will likely continue to weaken due to decreasing instability. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of post-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The terminals remain behind a cold front from a FROPA earlier this evening. Generally VFR in the wake of the cold FROPA this evening with some lingering showers expected through the night. Best chance for showers is for eastern terminals with MVFR conditions possible through the night in any showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. Any W winds lingering shift to the WNW and NW into the night with occasional to increasingly frequent gusts at 20-25kt. Winds turn more NNW/N during the day and increase with frequent gusts 25-30kt expected. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Presence of SHRA tonight may bring about brief localized MVFR conditions. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night.Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DW AVIATION...MW MARINE...DW  567 FXUS64 KHUN 170311 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler temperatures will move in over the weekend in the wake of a cold front. - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will last through Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday and Monday mornings in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Tennessee Valley now sits comfortably in the wake of a cold front that moved south through the area this afternoon. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s as of 9pm with breezy north/northwesterly winds. Temps will continue to fall into the morning hours bringing the coldest airmass we have felt since spring with lows falling into the low to mid 40s across most locations. Gusty northerly winds should prevent fog formation overnight as we see a temporary break in a mid level stratus deck before additional clouds move into the area during the early morning hours. Saturday will be breezy at times but much more comfortable temperature wise than what we saw earlier this week. Northerly winds will gradually slacken through the afternoon as cloud cover begins to thin over the area, leaving pleasant conditions with temps topping out in the low to mid 60s. We should see the sun return by around noon tomorrow with wind gusts up to 20-25mph through the early evening hours. Enjoy the fall weather! && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will expand over the eastern CONUS toward the later half of the weekend as low pressure moves east off the Atlantic coast and upper ridging begins to build over the Midwest and into the Southeast. Large scale subsidence will keep dry conditions in place with plenty of sunshine expected during the day. One thing we will be monitoring is the potential for patchy frost in sheltered and high elevations both Sunday and Monday mornings as temps dip down into the upper 30s across portions of southern TN and northeast AL. Afternoon highs will be very nice through the short term period, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Overall, it looks like the Fall-like weather will largely continue through Friday. A stout upper ridge will build over the central CONUS and into the South this next week as an upper trough persists over the eastern seaboard. By Thursday/Friday, the upper ridge starts to push eastward as a shortwave trough swings over the north-central portion of the country. Meanwhile, surface high pressure looks to remain entrenched over the Great Lakes and down into the Deep South through the week. Overall, little to no rainfall will be the theme through this next work week. Highs warm into the 70s for much of the week before increasing into the lower 80 degrees for some locations by late week as the axis of the aforementioned upper ridge moves over the the region. Lows will generally remain in the 40s for most of the week. Although, some locations may see lows around 50 degrees by Thursday night. Ultimately, it might be a good idea to grab at least a light jacket when heading out the door this week! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions have prevailed across the area with a mid level stratus deck forecast to persist through the evening hours. The back edge of this cloud deck can be seen moving into NW AL currently. While there may be some clearing behind this, additional MVFR cigs are forecast overnight and amendments may be necessary to account for satellite trends and observations. Northerly winds will remain gusty in the wake of a cold front, and wind shear will increase near the KMSL terminal tonight. Have included northerly wind shear between 35-40kts at 2kft for KMSL through 15z tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...25  595 FXUS64 KLUB 170312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1012 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures remain cool through the weekend, then rise back near or just above normal next week. - Dry weather is expected through the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quiet and cool weather continues across West TX as a weak upper level ridge axis builds overhead. North winds have finally decreased as the surface pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of a ~1038 mb surface ridge, and we expect winds to become calm by sunrise as this ridge axis centers directly over our area. High level cloud cover ended up persisting a bit longer than expected this evening, but has also begun to thin and retreat southward, a trend which will continue overnight. These conditions will favor strong radiational cooling, supporting the coldest lows of the season thus far. Lows early Saturday morning are expected to be in the upper 20s to near 30 over the SW Panhandle and northern South Plains, and will likely be closer to 32 (or even a bit warmer) over the rest of the Caprock. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all areas on the Caprock. Lower elevation locations east of the escarpment are currently expected to remain above freezing tonight. Sunny skies and calm winds are expected on Saturday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side with highs near 60 degrees. SSW winds are then expected to increase Saturday evening, and while it will still be unseasonably cool Saturday night with lows in the 30s, the stronger winds are expected to keep sub-freezing conditions more limited on Sunday morning compared to Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday begins a warming trend as weak ridging persists aloft and southwesterly surface flow continues to intensify. Models are now in good agreement keeping a series of upper level disturbances well to our west through the first half of the week, which keeps precipitation chances near zero over West TX through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will also steadily warm throughout the week as as a ~590dam ridge axis builds over the region. This will result in several days of temperatures near and above average with daily highs in the mid 70s Mon-Tue and upper 70s to low 80s Wed- Fri. Models then diverge regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern late in the week with differences in how quickly the broad upper level troughing shifts eastward. Depending on how quickly this occurs, showers may return to the forecast area during the Wed-Fri timeframe. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. The current NE wind looks to drop off throughout the evening hours to about 5-10 knots, and eventually shift around to the SW tomorrow afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...SC  815 FXUS63 KBIS 170320 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1020 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect dry and mild conditions over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Some near critical fire weather conditions may return Saturday, mainly in the southwest. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Limited updates needed at this time. Some high clouds will move across the state tonight. Otherwise look for dry conditions with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Limited updates needed at this time. Some near critical fire weather conditions may be found early this evening, especially in southwestern portions of North Dakota. Overall the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cyclonic flow is found across the northern Plains this afternoon, with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over western North Dakota this afternoon. With the surface pressure gradient tightening between this approaching surface high and an exiting surface low to our east, breezy south winds sustained around 15 to 20 MPH and gusting as high as 30 MPH have developed. Breezy winds are expected to linger overnight as we remain fairly well mixed and the surface gradient is slow to relax. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast from the mid 40s in the James River Valley, up to the lower to mid 50s west. Dry conditions are expected across North Dakota, especially in the southwest where relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 percent range. With the gusty south winds this afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early evening. Chilly overnight conditions are expected again with the clear skies over the forecast area, though the sustained winds are expected to prevent another widespread freeze like we saw last night. A building upper level ridge across the Great Plains this weekend will promote mild and dry weather across much of western and central North Dakota. Gusty south to southwest winds sustained around 15 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will persist over much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon, though are anticipated to rapidly diminish through the early evening. With the warm forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Saturday is expected to be even more dry than Friday, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 15 to 20 percent across much of the southwest. With the lower winds on Saturday, sub near critical fire weather conditions are currently expected, though we will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days. The upper level ridge is then expected to begin flattening through the day on Sunday as a northern stream waves passes through the Canadian Prairies. While highs in the 60s are still anticipated in the afternoon, clearing skies and very light winds could allow for another widespread freeze across much of the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Current ensemble probabilities of dropping to or below freezing is around 20 to 40 percent across much of the north and portions of the southwest Monday morning. With zonal flow then favored through the first half of the coming week, mild and dry weather is anticipated to continue through at least the mid week. Through this period, a Pacific Low is expected to make landfall in the southwestern CONUS before cutting through the Rockies up toward the northern Plains. Some variation in timing and relative strength of this upper level feature is found within the ensemble, but overall chances for precipitation is anticipated to increase starting Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period along with mostly clear skies. A breezy at times south southwest wind is also expected to develop this evening and continue through much of the forecast period. Some low level wind shear may be found as a result tonight, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward including KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Anglin  830 FXUS63 KOAX 170321 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1021 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning in effect for the entire area into early Saturday morning. Temperatures could be as low as 29 degrees. - There is a low chance (20-40%) of fog Saturday morning. With freezing temperatures possible, slick spots may develop. - Warmer temperatures return next week. Dry conditions continue with our next chance of rain not until Friday-Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies and calming winds this evening allowing for significant radiational cooling. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 30s, below freezing for much of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A freeze warning is in place for our area from 1AM to 9AM. With such rapid cooling with calm winds we could see some patchy fog develop in low-lying areas and near bodies of water. Temperatures near or below freezing could mean we see a few slick spots develop on bridges and overpasses. Overnight we're going to see the general wind direction shift from northerly to southerly as the surface high slides off to the southeast and ridging builds in overhead. We won't see much warming from this just yet on Saturday with highs only in the 50s, but overnight lows Saturday night into early Sunday will only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. Going into Sunday a more substantial southwesterly pressure gradient sets up across our area bringing in warm, dry air from the Desert Southwest. This will warm temperatures into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon. A deepening trough slides down the West Coast early next week leading to amplified southwesterly flow pushing into the Four Corners region. Models continue to delay when this trough ejects eastward toward our area, delaying precipitation chances, now more likely Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will be warming with highs warming into the 70s by Wednesday and near 80 Thursday and Friday. One concern to monitor next week is the potential for fire weather concerns. With dry weather and warming temperatures, fuels will be drying out more through the week. Right now the windiest period looks to be right as precipitation arrives on Friday, but any windier periods that may develop earlier in the week could mean dangerous fire conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly clear skies expected overnight with winds out of the north weakening, becoming nearly calm by 06Z. Patchy fog may develop in low-lying areas but we don't anticipate any of this impacting the terminals. Winds increase out of the south Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy  083 FXUS63 KFSD 170330 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost continues to be expected tonight into early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory remains in place for central and south- central South Dakota, with a Freeze Warning elsewhere. Both headlines remain in effect from midnight to 9 AM. - Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow with gusts of 25-35 mph expected, locally higher over the Buffalo Ridge. These breezy winds coupled with drier air could lead to marginally elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoon. - Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A surface ridge continues to push through the area this evening. Its trajectory remains on track as a few locations west of the James River and across south central South Dakota are showing light southerly winds. This is also resulting in well behaved temperatures that continue to fall in line with expectations. Thus, still expecting temperatures to fall to the low to mid 30s, to even upper 20s in a few locations. The coldest temperatures continue to look to occur over parts of northwest Iowa where winds will go southerly the latest. As such, have kept all headlines in place. Still looking at temperatures to warm above freezing by the time the headlines expire at 9 AM. Winds remain on track to strengthen through the morning hours tomorrow, as low level pressure gradients continue to tighten. Southwest gusts up to 25 to 35 mph remain expected for the afternoon timeframe. Isolated higher gusts up to about 45 mph remain on the table as well along the Buffalo Ridge. Looks like any chance for these stronger wind gusts will come during the morning hours, right as mixing begins to deepen. These isolated stronger gusts will be short lived though as 925mb winds will be weakening a bit for the afternoon hours. Temperatures remain on track to warm to 50s and 60s, warmest along and west of I-29. These temperatures along with dew points remaining in the 30s will result in humidity values down to about 30-50%, lowest across south central South Dakota. The breezy winds, warm temperatures, and lower humidity will result in marginally elevated fire danger. While the highest potential fire danger will come across south central South Dakota, this area looks to be slightly offset from the strongest wind gusts. Will monitor the potential for fire danger in this area but think that locally higher fire danger is not as likely due to continued warm advection aloft, preventing deeper mixing from being achieved. Any fire danger will come to an end by sunset as temperatures cool and humidity increases. Sunday continues to look to be a pleasant day with highs remaining in the 60s but winds will be weaker, with gusts only reaching up to about 25 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The last of the clouds will continue to diminish over northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota over the hour or two, leading to plenty of sunshine across the area! This sunshine should allow most areas to reach the lower 50s for highs, and decreasingly breezy winds will make for a cool, but fairly pleasant fall evening. Winds will be decreasing due to a surface high pressure system moving across the region. These lighter winds coupled with clear skies will mean temperatures will drop rather quickly after the sun sets. By the late night hours though, the high pressure system will quickly slide eastward and allow for the return of southeasterly winds to the area. This should halt the faster cooling and allow for areas especially over south- central South Dakota to remain above freezing, though still remain cold enough for frost. Thus, a frost advisory will be in effect for these areas tonight. Farther east, do think the slight uptick in southeasterly winds will not make it in time to prevent these areas from dropping to 32 degrees or lower. Generally speaking, the farther east you go across the area tonight, the longer it will take for the slightly elevated winds to arrive and thus the colder you'll get. Though there is still some lingering uncertainty on the westward extent of the freezing temperatures, current thoughts are that clear skies, light winds, and dry air during the early overnight will lead to these areas dropping to freezing by daybreak. All that said, frost is expected across the entire area overnight. Southeasterly winds will continue to increase heading into the day tomorrow as the high pressure system slides east and a low pressure system develops off the northern Rockies. Winds won't be as strong as what we've seen this morning and this past night, but expect most areas to see gusts in the 25-35 mph range during the day on Saturday. A few gusts to 45 mph will be possible over the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, but this is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, though trends will be monitor. Another thing to monitor will be locally elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures are expected especially over south-central South Dakota, with highs in the 60s and possibly near 70. This combined with dew points well down into the 30s will lead to relative humidity values just below 30% in south-central South Dakota. Elsewhere, relative humidity values will be around 30-50% Saturday afternoon. This could all result in locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly in cured grasses and cropland. Ridging aloft builds in through the weekend, allowing for a seasonal weather pattern to return that will also continue into early next week. Sunday looks to be the better weekend day for outdoor activities with diminishing winds, sunny skies, and highs in the middle 60s. A weak upper wave will ride into the central Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, though probabilities of measurable rainfall with this system is low (<20%) and focused near and east of I-29 according to latest LREF probabilities. After this weak system passes through, ridging builds back in aloft, and this combined with continued southerly flow will lead to even warmer temperatures by the middle of the week. Highs by Wednesday and Thursday will potentially climb into the 70s across parts of the area. The NBM is a bit more aggressive than other ensembles, though is only warmer by a few degrees comparatively speaking. Either way, forecast temperatures will likely get refined as mid week approaches as more smaller scale details come into better focus. Looking out to the end of next week, the weather pattern may turn a bit more active as guidance indicates a western trough potentially ejecting into the area, though the timing of this is where models really diverge. The broad 20-40% PoPs as highlighted by the NBM next Friday is largely in line with 16.12Z LREF, though details with this system will once again become more clear as we approach the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Starting to see winds turn southerly along and west of the James River late this evening. Locations east of the river are observing light and variable winds. Winds will continue to turn out of the south through the rest of the night and begin to strengthen. Winds will veer to out of the southwest by Saturday morning and continue to strengthen. Gusts up to 20-35 knots are expected for tomorrow afternoon. The strongest gusts will occur along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota and across south central South Dakota. Winds will slowly wane through the rest of the period. At the same time, some low level wind shear is expected to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ039-040-054>056- 060>062-065>071. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-050-052-053- 057>059-063-064. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...Meyers DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers  226 FXUS65 KGJT 170334 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 934 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably cool conditions remain in place through the weekend. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for valley locations where sub-freezing temperatures are expected. - The potential for unsettled weather will increase throughout the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 COOL AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: High pressure remains in control through much of the weekend, keeping things dry and sunny. Temperatures remain on the cooler side through the weekend, with highs near to around 5 degrees below normal and seasonably cool lows. Across the northwest CO valleys, as well as the upper Colorado River Valley and CO Zone 23, subfreezing temperatures are once again forecast. A Freeze Warning is in effect through 9AM Saturday morning. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS: An area of low pressure that has been lurking off the SoCal coast the last few days is expected to become a mobile, open wave by Sunday, making its way toward the Four Corners. A bit of moisture a lift associated with the passing of this wave will result in some light mountain showers for the San Juans, generally in the form of rain. Some light snow showers will be possible Sunday night into Monday, but mainly at elevations above roughly 12k feet. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry. The next stronger Pacific trough will approach the West Coast Monday, resulting in flow across the western CONUS turning southwesterly. This will begin to draw up rich tropical moisture through the Four Corners, leading to afternoon mountain showers where orographics are favorable, mainly across the San Juans and into the Central Divide Mountains. Better forcing looks to move in mid-week, as the Pacific low moves through SoCal and begins to track through the Desert Southwest. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding this system, its exact track, timing, and strength. Suffice to say, it's looking like a return to cooler and unsettled weather is likely mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies will be the rule over the next 24 hours with VFR conditions expected. Some enhanced drainage winds are possible at KHDN overnight but otherwise, winds will remain light and terrain, driven for much of the area. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008- 023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB AVIATION...TGJT  255 FXUS63 KICT 170336 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1036 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first freeze/frost of the season expected for most of the area tonight/Saturday morning. - Temperatures expected to rebound this weekend through the end of next week. 80-degree highs are possible to return by mid- week. - Little to no precipitation is forecast over the next 6-7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND... Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon shows a sharp and vigorous deep layer trough progressing eastward out of the central CONUS, a weak upper low southwest of southern California, and a building upper ridge across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a potent post-frontal airmass continues to dominate the central plains with gusty northern winds supporting continue strong low-level CAA. However, as a surface ridge slides into Kansas tonight, winds are expected to quickly decrease become nearly calm by late tonight. These calm winds, along with clear skies, should allow for ample radiational cooling. It's likely much of the area will see their first frost and/or freeze of the season, especially across central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 20s, and such optimal conditions for radiational cooling, one would think that the bottom may fall out on min temps overnight; however, soil temps in the 50s and 60s should somewhat limit how cold conditions get overnight/early Saturday morning. Still lows will generally range from the upper 20s across central Kansas to the mid 30s across southeast Kansas. The surface ridge sliding eastward on Saturday, along with modest pressure falls across the High Plains, should support the return of southerly low level flow as soon as Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually rebound this weekend with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 60s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s Saturday night could be just cold enough for areas of frost once again, then overnight lows Sunday night will be a bit more mild with 40s expected area-wide. NEXT WEEK... Deterministic and ensemble guidance next week signals a rather stagnant mid/upper level pattern. Persistent deep layer troughing is anticipated across the western CONUS, and mid/upper ridging will remain stuck over the central and southern plains. With persistent southwesterly upper flow over the southern Rockies, a standing surface trough will remain across the High Plains and encourage steady southerly low-level flow. This pattern supports a high likelihood that temperatures will rebound quickly next week, and highs could return to the 80s as soon as Wednesday. These above average highs should continue through the end of next week. In general, moisture looks to hold off over the next 6-7 days. Long range global models are hinting at the possibility that moisture from another tropical cyclone off the west coast of Mexico could be pulled northward into the southern and central plains next weekend. That being said, there are still a number a details that still need to be ironed out between now and then. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the region for the next 24hrs with light north winds switching around to the south on Saturday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-047>051- 067-082. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053-068>072- 083-091>095-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...CDJ  274 FXUS64 KBRO 170336 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1036 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Coolest airmass of the season arrives tonight and persist through Saturday night following the cold frontal passage; overnight lows tonight and Saturday night mainly in the 50s; high temperatures on Saturday only in the 70s. - Breezy north winds 15-25 mph gusting as high as 35 mph will continue through tonight before gradually subsiding on Saturday. - Combination of breezy winds and low relative humidity values will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Saturday; A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the inland portions of Deep South Texas from 11am to 8pm. - Dangerous or hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue into Sunday. - A warming trend develops next week with temperatures returning to warmer than normal levels; there is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cool and dry air advection regime, courtesy of stiff blustery northerly winds 15-25 mph gusting as high as 40 mph and a broad 1035- 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system in the wake of the cold front, will usher in the coolest airmass of the season tonight through Saturday night. Temperatures at this hour have been falling and continue to fall with values currently in the mid 60s over parts of the Northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande Valley. Humidity levels have also fallen this evening with current dewpoint and relative humidity values in the 40s and 50s. Overnight low temperatures tonight are progged to be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the valley). Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight tonight before gradually diminishing during the day on Saturday. Despite the winds becoming lighter, they will be strong enough and when combined with the low relative humidities, will result in an elevated fire weather risk. Have issued a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for the inland portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from 11AM-8PM CDT Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to make it out of the 70s amid the continuation of cool and dry air advection on northerly winds. These highs on Saturday will be some 10-20F degrees below average. Saturday night will feature another cooler than normal night (similar to tonight) with light winds and mainly clear skies. Sunday through next week, a warming trend takes place as a 591 dam heat dome emerges overhead. Mid-upper 80s to low-mid 90s will arrive as early as Tuesday of next week in response the strengthening heat ridge. Main rain-free weather can be expected through next week. However, there could be a day or two where showers are possible (namely in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe). Currently, we have low- medium (20-40%) chances for rain Tuesday through Wednesday with the best chances being during the daytime and closer to the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Through 00z Sunday....VFR conditions will continue through the 00z TAF period with windy to breezy conditions continuing. Through tonight, it will remain windy with northerly winds 15-22 knots gusting as high as 35-40 kts. During the day on Saturday, winds will weaken as the day wears on, though still remaining breezy with northerly winds 10-15 knots gusting as high as 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Dangerous or hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue into Sunday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waterstill 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory remain in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from till 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect till Sunday morning (at least). Sunday through the remainder of next week, adverse marine and coastal conditions will prevail with mainly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Gulf Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454- 455. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  315 FXUS63 KLSX 170338 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1038 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost is expected north of I-70 late tonight into early tomorrow morning. - Cooler temperatures are expected the next couple of days, followed by more seasonable temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mesoanalysis shows that a sharp upper-level trough is over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The trough is a main driver for the widespread cloud cover currently over the region. There are embedded isolated showers within the cloud cover caused by weak low and mid-level lapse rates combined with weak warm air advection providing just enough lift to allow for sustainment of these isolated showers. The trough also brought the cold front through our region yesterday that introduced northwesterly flow resulting in much cooler temperatures compared to the last several days. This afternoon we are not expected to have temperatures above the mid 50s, which is 20-30 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. As this trough continues its trek to the east, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will move in covering the central CONUS. This evening, the approaching ridge will result in gradually lowering wind speeds and clearing skies from north to south. Radiative cooling will allow low temperatures overnight in northeast MO and west-central IL to drop into the mid-30s. With low wind, clear skies, and low temperatures there is high confidence for frost development, so the Front Advisory remains in effect for late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Southeastern MO and southwestern IL will not experience any frost due to remaining cloud cover and associated warmer temperatures as the clouds continue to scatter out to clear skies Saturday morning. Thanks to the approaching ridge, Saturdays high temperatures are expected to rebound to around 60 degrees, which is still around 10 degrees below our seasonal normals. Cold and clear conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, creating another risk for frost development across the region, but there still remains uncertainty with the exact location of the surface high and subsequently surface winds. A Frost Advisory is currently not in effect for tomorrow night, but is not off the table if conditions allow. Sundays high temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer (in the mid-60s), as the ridge settles over the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is a consensus among ensemble and deterministic guidance that once the ridge moves over the region tomorrow, that it will remain through the week. This leads to high confidence in a relatively uneventful week. The ridge will be bookended by troughing along the West and East Coasts causing weak low-level southwesterly flow during the week. As a result, there exists support for warm air advection, albeit subtly. This will result in a gradual warming of temperatures through the week. The first half of the week will see a return to near normal temperatures, but how much we warm by the end of the week remains uncertain. LREF guidance has Thursdays high temperatures in the low to mid-70s, while the NBM has upper-70s to low-80s. The NBM is likely warmer due to it being composed of bias-corrected guidance that is warmer than non-bias guidance. This warm bias is likely a result of it currently being the cooling season combined with recent unseasonably warm events. Given this potential impact from the bias correction, the NBM is probably too warm and confidence is low in its temperatures towards the end of the week. Confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through the week due to the presence of weak flowaloft and lack of any notable disturbances in both deterministic and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High end MVFR cloud deck is clearing out from north to south leaving VFR conditions in its wake. Winds have been gusty through the day but have already begun to come down. As the pressure gradient relaxes with the approach of high pressure, expect winds to become variable by morning. VFR continues through the day Saturday with winds attempting to turn more southerly but remaining very light through the day and into Saturday night. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060-095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Asel/BSH LONG TERM...Asel/BSH AVIATION...Kimble  409 FXUS63 KAPX 170341 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1141 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy with lingering shower chances into this evening. - Breezy to windy again at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday. - Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our north. Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide (highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through early Saturday morning. More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low- mid 60s across much of northern lower. This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 N/NNW winds should continue to diminish thru 9-10z or so and could turn light/vrb with offshore/land breezes possible at TVC/MBL...before switching to SW/WSW after 12-15z...becoming gusty again 15-25kts or a little better, esp for PLN/CIU. VFR conditions likely to continue with clouds generally diminishing overnight...but brief MVFR possible for MBL around 8-12z when a shower is possible; VFR prevails thru the rest of the period at all sites, with SKC possible, esp for MBL. Still wonder about patchy fog but not as confident in this idea for taf sites with aggressive drying thus far tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...FEF  411 FXUS64 KMEG 170341 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Much cooler weather is in store across the Mid-South this weekend with below normal temperatures. Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will likely fall into the upper 30s and low 40s. - Periods of gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with occasional wind gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon. - Dry weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South overnight in the wake of today's cold frontal passage, setting the stage for a noticeably cooler and drier weekend across the region. The gusty winds that occurred behind the front will diminish some overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. This influx of cooler, drier air will drop overnight low temperatures into the low to mid-40s, bringing a crisp start to the weekend. Below normal temperatures will be common across the Mid-South Saturday with highs in the 60s as skies gradually clear. The primary concern in the short term will be the potential for patchy frost as the center of the surface high settles in Saturday night into Sunday morning. With clear skies, nearly calm winds, and a very dry airmass in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plunge into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees across the Mid-South. HREF probabilities paint a 40 to 60 percent chance of temperatures falling to less than 37 degrees across parts of West Tennessee, the Missouri, Bootheel, and eastern Arkansas. Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will gradually warm. The work week will begin with high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s, warming slightly each day with upper 70s to mid/upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. No precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Post-frontal low clouds will continue to push south into the Mid- South overnight. Given the latest upstream trends and model guidance, there is a low to medium confidence that cigs will drop to MVFR overnight. Targeted the most likely period for lower cigs at each site with a TEMPO. Otherwise, conditions will be prevailing VFR. North winds have diminished to around 10 knots this evening and will become gusty once again Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Despite elevated winds across parts of North Mississippi and eastern Arkansas, afternoon minimum relative humidity values will generally stay in the 30 to 40 percent range, falling shy of elevated fire weather conditions. By Sunday and into next week, while minimum relative humidity values will remain below 40%, wind speeds will generally remain light. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...TAB AVIATION...SJM  439 FXUS64 KOUN 170342 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1028 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Freeze Warning in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. Frost Advisory in the north and west. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cool temperatures and gusty northerly winds have been the story today. The wind will become light this evening as mixing decreases and the surface ridge of high pressure moves into northwest Oklahoma this evening. The NBM forecast low temperatures are at the low end of the guidance envelope, but still seem reasonable given the mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight with a floor where temperatures will approach the dewpoint. Temperatures near or slightly below 32 are forecast in Harper and Ellis Counties, so the Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning. It will likely not be a hard or long-duration freeze, but it will be a freeze nonetheless. Have also issued a frost advisory for the portions of northern and western Oklahoma where the forecast low will be in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cooler weather will persist through the weekend with below average temperatures for this time of year. Saturday will be quite cool, but highs will be slightly warmer (but still below average) on Sunday as the surface ridge slides southeast and surface pressures drop across southeastern Colorado increasing the pressure gradient and southerly winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions to continue. Light north winds tonight with clear skies. Ridge axis will move slowly southeast across the area tomorrow into tomorrow evening. As this occurs winds will shift from the north to the east and then south. Skies will remain clear during the day tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 38 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 36 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 32 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 35 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008-010>016- 021-022-033-034. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...30  478 FXUS65 KRIW 170344 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 944 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Skies will remain mostly clear overnight, with some high clouds skirting northwest WY overnight, and increasing over northern WY Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning will again generally dip into the 20s and 30s across western and central WY. - High pressure over the central Rockies will keep skies mostly clear to partly cloudy for the weekend, with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, reaching the upper 50s west of the divide, and the 60s to lower 70s east of the divide. Saturday will see breezy and gusty winds from southwest/southern WY into central and north-central WY. - Clouds increase from the southwest on Monday, with rain chances (20-30%) across western WY starting Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday. Precipitation chances increase (30-50%) across much of western and central WY Thursday into Friday, with some snow possible in the NW WY mountains Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major changes to the forecast with this update. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures continue through the week, with no precipitation expected until at least Tuesday (across far western Wyoming). Saturday looks to be the warmest day for the next week, with highs in the 60s. Around Buffalo, temperatures have an 80 percent chance to exceed 75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 944 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure continues and the result is mostly light wind, clear skies, and VFR conditions through the TAF period. Wind will remain below 10 knots at most terminals. There will be a bit more wind Saturday afternoon with increasing wind at KCOD, KCPR, KJAC, and KRKS either late morning or early afternoon. Generally, wind will be 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots at the aforementioned terminals. KCPR will have stronger wind 20-25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  711 FXUS63 KDMX 170349 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds gradually diminish into this evening. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rain showers this morning were a bit more widespread than initially thought at this time yesterday but have since diminished this afternoon. The gusty north to northwest winds remain with sustained winds around 15-30 mph, and gusts to 25-40 mph. Gusts have started to come down in northern Iowa and the highest gusts as of early afternoon were in central Iowa. These gusts will continue to diminish gradually through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Temperatures today have been chilly as expected with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s and feel-like temperatures with the gusty winds only in the 40s. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with evening activities experiencing temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s and feel-like temperatures largely in the 30s, even with the wind diminishing. You'll certainly want to take those jackets and blankets should you be attending any outdoor events tonight! Overnight lows tonight will similarly be chilly and as has been advertised over the last several days, near to just above/below freezing. Confidence in the widespread 32 degrees or below temperatures is not as high as it was this time yesterday. The surface high pressure swinging through the region is not quite as far north and moves out quicker. This has decreased the opportunity for prime radiational cooling. In northern to portions of western Iowa, this means the pressure gradient will increase sooner allowing for winds to begin increasing again during the later overnight. The faster departure of the high also means winds out of the southwest return in much of the area prior to daybreak Saturday. As noted on the previous shift, there is also a steep inversion that remains in place through the night. All this to say, we may not drop off as efficiently or as low as we otherwise could have. It will still be the coldest night of the season so far with a widespread frost expected. Temperatures themselves may only near or fall just below freezing in some locations and be at or just above in others. Rural areas have the better chances to fall below while urban areas may be slightly warmer. Kept the Freeze Warning as is with the chance that these near 33 degree temperatures in portions of central/southeast Iowa may be able to dip back to that 32 degree mark and any sensitive vegetation is likely to be affected regardless. Some patchy fog may also be possible but confidence is low with the increasing winds and residence time of the high pressure. Saturday will feature ample sunshine and start a warming trend again as highs climb back towards the upper 50s to low 60s. As noted, winds out of the southwest will be breezy, especially for the northwest half of the area with gusts to around 15-30 mph, the highest gusts in the north/northwest. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A continued warming trend is expected Sunday and beyond. Temperatures return to the 60s to end the weekend and start the new work week and then climb to the 70s by midweek. Outside of some breezy conditions and clouds at times next week as systems beneath the upper ridge near the region, the going forecast remains pleasant and dry. Rain chances then start to return late next week or weekend with details to be refined over the coming days. &&.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northwest winds will become variable overnight, then from the southwest from 12z and beyond. 20kt gusts possible for northern terminals in the afternoon, and up to 25kts at KMCW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007-015>017- 023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>096. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Jimenez  684 FXUS64 KOHX 170348 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and dry weekend with patchy frost Saturday night and Sunday night. - Gradual warming trend next week with highs mostly in the 70s. - Dry all next week, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front that moved through Middle TN Friday morning had brought an end to record-breaking heat, giving us our first taste of real fall weather. Temperatures this evening were running 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, and the cooler, breezy trend will continue. A few very light showers along the Plateau will move out soon with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight into Saturday. Breezy conditions will continue with gusts over 20 mph at times. The winds will finally diminish by late Saturday afternoon as very dry high pressure settles overhead. Daytime Saturday will be the coolest of the fall season so far with temperatures making it only to the mid 50s to lower 60s! The breezy and dry conditions will enhance the fire risk, so burning is discouraged, and likely banned in some areas. Good radiational cooling will be in place for Saturday night with light winds and clear skies. This will allow many areas to dip into the 30s. Patchy frost will develop, mainly in valleys and along the Plateau. Daytime Sunday will be a nice fall day with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the 60s. Patchy frost will be possible again Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Dry high pressure will stay in place through the week. As a ridge builds overhead, daytime highs will gradually warm through the 70s, reaching around 80 by the end of the week. Nights will be clear and continued chilly. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A line of sprinkles/showers are moving east through the area, this will clear the eastern terminals by 04z. Cigs will briefly return to VFR this evening before MVFR cigs return by 07z. MVFR will remain in place through the overnight with clearing from west to east after 12z with clear skies building during the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty into tomorrow out of the north with gusts up to 22 knots. Winds will start to let up during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 46 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 44 62 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 41 55 34 64 / 50 0 0 0 Columbia 45 63 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 43 57 37 66 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 42 55 35 65 / 50 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 44 62 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 45 63 37 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 45 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Mueller  709 FXUS64 KTSA 170349 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Temperatures drop enough tonight and Saturday night to support some frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. - A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with temps climbing to around 10 degrees above average for this time of year by the end of the week. - Dry weather is expected this weekend into much of next week. Low rain chances return by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis is expected to lie from eastern KS to western OK at 12Z. Lower clouds across SW MO and NW AR now appear that they will clear out by morning, but this area will be a bit more displaced from the surface ridge and should maintain some north wind through the night. The area across far NE OK close to the KS border and beneath the surface ridge axis to the north and west of Tulsa will be the most favorable area for frost development by daybreak Saturday morning. After a cool start, it will be a Chamber of Commerce day across the region for your Saturday. Light winds, lots of sun and highs near 60. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 By Saturday night, the surface ridge axis will have shifted east and will lie from the Ozarks back into far eastern OK. Conditions appear favorable again toward daybreak Sunday morning for patchy frost in the valleys of NW AR and far NE OK. A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with ridging aloft prevailing over the central part of the country. Highs return to the 80s again by Wednesday and rise to the mid 80s toward the end of the week. An upper trough is expected to develop near the West Coast early next week but will take its time moving east toward the Plains. Current expectations are for a dry forecast next week with low rain chances by next weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail, with stratocu deck eroding quickly after sunset, with the exception of NW AR where clouds are likely to hang on for several more hours. North winds gusting currently 20-25 knots will drop off next 1-2 hours with light north-northeast winds prevailing thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 39 61 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 43 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 33 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 36 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 40 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 39 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 36 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 39 62 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14  758 FXUS64 KTSA 170351 CCA AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion...corrected National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Temperatures drop enough tonight and Saturday night to support some frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. - A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with temps climbing to around 10 degrees above average for this time of year by the end of the week. - Dry weather is expected this weekend into much of next week. Low rain chances return by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface ridge axis is expected to lie from eastern KS to western OK at 12Z. Lower clouds across SW MO and NW AR now appear that they will clear out by morning, but this area will be a bit more displaced from the surface ridge and should maintain some north wind through the night. The area across far NE OK close to the KS border and beneath the surface ridge axis to the north and west of Tulsa will be the most favorable area for frost development by daybreak Saturday morning. After a cool start, it will be a Chamber of Commerce day across the region for your Saturday. Light winds, lots of sun and highs in the 60s. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 By Saturday night, the surface ridge axis will have shifted east and will lie from the Ozarks back into far eastern OK. Conditions appear favorable again toward daybreak Sunday morning for patchy frost in the valleys of NW AR and far NE OK. A steady warming trend is forecast next week, with ridging aloft prevailing over the central part of the country. Highs return to the 80s again by Wednesday and rise to the mid 80s toward the end of the week. An upper trough is expected to develop near the West Coast early next week but will take its time moving east toward the Plains. Current expectations are for a dry forecast next week with low rain chances by next weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail, with stratocu deck eroding quickly after sunset, with the exception of NW AR where clouds are likely to hang on for several more hours. North winds gusting currently 20-25 knots will drop off next 1-2 hours with light north-northeast winds prevailing thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 39 61 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 43 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 33 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 36 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 40 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 39 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 36 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 39 62 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 43 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14  747 FXUS65 KSLC 170351 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 950 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of southern Utah late Sunday morning through the afternoon. - More widespread precipitation is expected roughly Tuesday on into the weekend. Total water amounts remain around 0.50-1.50", with locally higher amounts to around 2.00-2.50" or so. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... Morning water vapor analysis shows ridging extending through the Great Basin while a broad cutoff low swirls near the Baja Peninsula. With dry and stable conditions, overnight lows dipped near to slightly below freezing in some locations, but temperatures are quickly rebounding. Forecast afternoon highs are expected to push to near seasonable levels in most locations, with the exception being portions of the San Rafael Swell and Castle Country where highs will run around 5-10 degrees below normal. The broad cutoff low will gradually shift east to northeastward into the Desert Southwest, before ejecting into the northern stream Sunday into Monday. For Saturday, conditions more or less look like a repeat of Friday but with temperatures nudging upwards slightly. Moisture associated with the low will start to push through portions of southern Utah Sunday morning into the afternoon, bringing enhanced cloud cover as well as isolated chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. After an overnight lull, similar conditions are then expected Monday. A larger northern stream trough will be digging southward from the PacNW on Tuesday. Models generally support this feature gradually cutting off from California into the Great Basin through the middle of the week, eventually translating eastward through the Intermountain West on into the weekend. Ensembles mean PWAT anomalies generally push into the 150-200% of normal range (AI ECM locally up to 250% across the Four Corners region). That said, there are some differences in exact timing, likely owing to the cutoff nature of the trough. Overall though, the general pattern would contain enhanced upper and midlevel support, which in combination with ample moisture would result in more widespread precipitation chances across the area. Current forecast water amounts have not changed markedly, with general storm total amounts (Tuesday through Friday) of around 0.50" to 1.50". Locally higher amounts of roughly 2.00" to 2.50" are noted in some orographically favored high terrain in a south to southwest flow regime. With the cutoff nature of the low, there is not much of a cold air tap, with 700 mb temps only falling to around 0C to -3C later Thursday into the weekend as the trough axis works in. Snow levels will remain above 10000 ft until then, only gradually falling to around 8500-9500 ft as the modestly cooler air moves in. Models in turn do support accumulating snow on the order of 4-12" or so in some of that higher terrain. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail under clear skies at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Generally light southeasterly winds countinue through Saturday morning, switching northwesterly after 20z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. A majority of terminals will continue to see light, terrain driven flows through Saturday; KSGU will see light winds overnight before enhanced easterly winds redevelop Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1206 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026... A strengthening ridge of high pressure is noted over the area, helping to maintain dry conditions. Temperatures are generally running near to a little below normal across much of the area, though will nudge upwards for Saturday. A grazing system will bring isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two to southern Utah Sunday and Monday, with increased cloud cover expected elsewhere. By Tuesday a larger scale trough is expected to dig into the Great Basin, gradually cutting off and then shifting eastward through the week. In combination with ample moisture, this system will bring unsettled conditions and more widespread precipitation to Utah. Forecast water amounts Tuesday on through Friday are roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally up to 2.00" to 2.50" in some of the favored high terrain. Snow will remain above 10000 feet through Thursday. Slightly cooler air moving in late Thursday on into Friday will allow snow levels to drop to roughly 8500-9500 feet, allowing some accumulating snow at higher elevations. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Whitam FIRE WEATHER...Warthen HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  895 FXUS63 KGRB 170357 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight into Saturday morning as low temperatures fall into the mid 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Door County as temperatures fall to the mid 30s. - Breezy and dry conditions are expected for the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. - A prolonged stretch of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold Tonight into Saturday Morning...A prevailing high pressure system has brought cooler Canadian air over the forecast area. The combination of the colder air, clear skies, and calm winds will lead to chilly overnight/morning low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 20s for most locations north and west of the Fox Valley, with low to mid 30s in the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for central, east-central, and portions of far northeast WI, and a Frost Advisory in effect for Door County, where the interior and southern sections of the county will see frost. The Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM Saturday. Dry and Breezy this Weekend...The forecast area will remain under the influence of surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging for the weekend. Return southwesterly flow will also be present this weekend with a tightened pressure gradient at times. This will lead to breezy conditions, mainly during the afternoons with gusts to 20- 30 mph. Conditions will also be dry and mostly sunny with temperatures rebounding a little, highs in the 50s for Saturday, and low 60s on Sunday. Next Week...High pressure and mid-level ridging will remain in place for the first half of the work week, keeping conditions dry. Although chances continue to decrease, guidance indicates the next chance for precip would be sometime midweek from the southern tip of a northern stream system. Mid-level ridging and high pressure then return for the remainder of the week. This pattern will cause temperatures to remain above normal and gradually warm each day by a couple degrees, potentially reaching the low 70s for some spots by Thursday of next week. With the return to above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry period, will need to monitor fuels across drought stricken areas of northern WI for the potential of an increased wildfire risk. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Any lingering low-end VFR clouds will dissipate over the next hour and leave clear skies in place through the remainder of this TAF period. The gusty northwest winds will also subside over the next hour. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly overnight and increase mid-morning Saturday through early Saturday evening, with gusts to around 20 kts. A very brief period of LLWS is anticipated at the RHI TAF site Saturday morning (12z-14z) before the surface southwesterly winds increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay through late tonight before waves subside early Saturday. Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday night as persistent southwest winds increase, causing building waves. Additional marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines until the current headlines expire. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Kruk MARINE.........Kruk