219 FXUS63 KDTX 162303 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers with gusty northwest winds this evening. - Turning colder late tonight with low temperatures Saturday morning reaching the low to mid 30s. This will lead to some areas of frost. - Cooler conditions Saturday, then turning warmer Sunday into next week. No rain expected through this time. && .AVIATION... A reinforcing cold front exiting into IN/OH leaves behind a few more hours of gusty north wind and churned boundary layer conditions that are already showing signs of dry air influence. Broken VFR ceiling with a stray rain shower is quickly becoming scattered as colder and increasingly dry air builds into Lower Mi ahead of Plains to Midwest surface high pressure. The dry air and backing wind direction deactivates the Lakes and continues the trend toward clear sky late tonight through Saturday morning. Clouds remain limited to just some cirrus streamers in the afternoon as low level dry air prevents Lake Michigan clouds as wind backs more toward the southwest. These conditions continue while the high pressure ridge slides east of Lower Mi by Saturday evening. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are forecast tonight or Saturday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this evening. * Low for exceeding crosswind threshold this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 DISCUSSION... High amplitude longwave trough on pace to pivot across the region this evening. Strong cold front attendant to the main height fall center noted accelerating southeast across the local area this afternoon. A few pockets of showers will continue to emerge over the next several hours as the frontal slope and trailing cold air advection engage sufficient resident moisture depth. Improvement in mixing depth within the immediate wake of this front will also provide a greater window for gusts to exceed 30 mph during the evening hours, particularly across the northern thumb. A secondary brief lake effect response likely off lake Huron, as a short window for meaningful shower production occurs within a zone of convergence along the eastern thumb through at least the first half of the night before low level flow veers sufficiently to direct activity offshore. Progressive clearing trend through the back half of the night as the notably colder/drier post-frontal environment gains traction with time. Latest NBM guidance offers a general spread in projected low temperature Saturday morning ranging from sub-freezing in the Saginaw valley to mid 30s portions of metro Detroit and near the immediate shoreline locations. While a persistent low level gradient may prove more detrimental at times for frost formation, in collaboration with neighboring offices still operating within the end of the growing season, will elect to highlight appropriate frost/freeze headlines based on projected low temperature. Seasonably cold airmass entrenched to start the weekend period, marked but sub-freezing temperatures at 850 mb. Surface ridging in control beneath prevailing mid level northwest flow affords deep layer dry and stable conditions, translating into a high degree of insolation potential. Despite this, existing thermal profile will simply support highs of lower 50s - or a solid 10 degrees below average. Light winds emerging from the southwest Saturday night as the surface ridge slips east. This may offer some limitation to radiational cooling potential, but with minimum temps Sunday morning still arriving in the mid 30s given the magnitude of the existing colder profile. This will afford some areas of frost. Ensuingwarming trend starting Sunday as existing low level southwest flow establish a pattern of warm air advection beneath a building upper height field. The strength of the advective process will bring temperatures back closer to average for mid October. A high magnitude deep layer dry and stable environment will exist through much of the upcoming work week, as conditions remain governed by low and mid level ridging. This ensures precipitation free conditions during this time. Moderating thermal profile magnified by existing upper ridging will lend to above average temperatures throughout this period. Highs mid 60s to around 70 degrees, with minimum temps in the 40s. MARINE... Strong cold advection is ongoing this afternoon as low pressure quickly departs to the east. As the depth of cold air increases over the warm lakes, increasing instability and the strengthening northerly wind field will allow stronger gusts to reach the surface through this evening. Model guidance is still in line with max gusts on the order of 35 to 40 kt over Lake Huron, especially over the southern basin where fetch is maximized. Confidence has increased to see a period of marginal gales over Lake St. Clair as well, and the Gale Warning has been expanded to include Lake St. Clair as well as all of Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for western Lake Erie. Wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight and continues to weaken through Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure extends in from the Midwest. The ridge then quickly shifts into the Ohio Valley, pairing with a deep low over Hudson Bay to produce a strong WSW pressure gradient over the local area late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday afternoon remains a target for potential gusts to 35 kt gales over Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron. Will allow current headlines to expire before issuing any additional headlines for this period. The high pressure then gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine conditions early next week. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ047-048-053- 054-060>062. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ049-055-063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  277 FXUS63 KGLD 162304 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 504 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and surface analysis show a building ridge west of the Rocky Mountains and north-northwesterly winds at the surface. Clear skies and breezy conditions continue for the county warning area (CWA) through the afternoon with gusts around 30 mph possible. Clear skies continue overnight with overnight low temperatures forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire CWA through Saturday morning. After sunrise, a warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper-level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens for the western CWA. Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 60s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s for the area. Sunday continues to be warm with high temperatures again forecast in the 60s to 70s. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s. Skies will be clear with breezy conditions possible for the eastern CWA. Wind gusts around 25 mph are possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning. Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK, through the TAF period. To start the period, winds are expected to be light and variable. Around 04Z, winds will likely begin to come from the southwest and be around 5-10 kts. In the morning hours (11-14Z) winds will begin to pick up to around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts possible through the end of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  263 FXUS64 KHGX 162304 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 604 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and breezy tonight. - Hazardous marine conditions expected. Gale Warning is in effect into Saturday for strong north winds and building seas. - Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in nature. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the cold front off the coast, northerly winds of 15-30 mph have developed over the region, with gusts reaching 25-42 mph. The strongest of these winds are expected/occuring west of I-45 and along islands. A wind advisory remains in effect, with the current configuration lasting through 1 AM Saturday as inland winds ease. Along the islands and waters, these strong winds will persist overnight, with Gale conditions most likely through early Saturday. With that, the Wind Advisory for the islands will remain in effect until 1 PM Saturday, matching the Gale Warning for all waters. Morning lows for Saturday will be in the upper 40s/mid 50s and upper 50s/lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s Saturday. The coldest temperatures arrive Sunday morning, reaching the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. High pressure behind the front tracks eastward Sunday into next week. Ridging builds overtop the area while a coastal trough develops over the northwestern Gulf early next week. Isolated showers will be possible, though more so confined to coastal/Gulf zones, as easterly flow will limit moisture recovery for inland areas. Gradually warming is expected throughout the work week with highs for Thursday reaching the 80s/lower 90s. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some sct/bkn high cloudiness streaming overhead, though breezy-windy northerly winds should be noted across all locations thru the evening. Inland, speeds will diminish a bit overnight with gusts settling down a bit closer to 20kt versus the current 30kt. But closer to the coast, speeds will likely further increase as cooler air moves over the warmer waters. Could see some occasional gusts to 40kt along the immediate coast between 3-9z. Saturday, wouldn't be surprised to see a brief increase in speeds across inland areas 13-16z with some better mixing, but speeds should be on a downward trend thru the remainder of the day. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly winds of 20-30 knots are expected this afternoon, rising to Gale/near Gale force overnight with gusts up to 45 knots and seas of 7-13 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect until 1 PM Saturday. Winds and seas decrease Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft conditions may linger through early Sunday morning. Winds veer to the east next week as high pressure shifts east of the area. Some isolated showers/storms will be possible over the waters early in the work week as a coastal trough sets up offshore. 03 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 25-42 mph continue this afternoon behind the cold front. The strongest winds should be west of I-45 and along the coast. Humidity will drop to 25-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Cannot completely rule out locally drier spots, as it's contingent on cloud cover, strength of the cold air advection and afternoon heating. While areas in SE Texas are not expected to hit Red Flag conditions, fire weather conditions will be elevated this afternoon. Texas A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high fire danger for SE Texas today. Caution is strongly advised when burning outdoors. Northerly winds decrease overnight into Saturday, dropping below 15 mph at most locations by the afternoon as RH drops to 30-40%. Texas A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high fire danger on Saturday as well. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 69 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 73 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176-177-195>199- 210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...47 MARINE...03  365 FXUS61 KPHI 162306 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 706 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather chances diminishing. Increasing potential for unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts from a developing nor'easter beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong cold front will continue cross southern New Jersey and Delmarva this evening with severe weather chances lowering. 2. Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. 3. Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with severe weather possible. Low pressure passing north of northern New England will continue to push a potent cold front across southern NJ and Delmarva for the early overnight period. There were some scattered severe thunderstorms earlier across eastern PA and parts of NJ, but the latest radar trends show the activity in most areas diminishing. The earlier widespread Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been pared back to only include southern/easter areas for a few more hours. A couple stronger storms may affect the weather shore of MD and Delaware thru 9PM. After that, rains will end overnight with showers hanging on latest across Delmarva. Much cooler temperatures develop overnight. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts. Much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points falling towards the 30s. Some showers may linger tonight into Saturday morning especially across southern NJ and Delmarva as the front slows for a time, but they should clear out finally later in the day if not before. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. The coldest airmass of the season thus far will usher into the region this weekend. With high pressure settling in from the north, skies will become clear by Saturday evening. While it will be a bit breezy early in the night, the pressure gradient is expected to lessen overnight, especially for locales north and west of I-95. In these areas, anticipate a period of good radiational cooling conditions where low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. For this reason, have issued a Freeze Watch for potions of eastern PA and northern NJ for Saturday night. Further south and east, it appears that winds will remain elevated enough to preclude frost formation where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. At this time, no frost/freeze headlines are expected along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. High temperatures on Sunday will then only be in the 50s for the entire region despite mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate Sunday night into early next week. Another round of frost/freeze conditions will be possible for Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly confined to the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern New Jersey. Lows are expected to be several degrees warmer than Saturday night mainly in the mid to upper 30s, so this would favor frost over freeze where the growing season remains active. Too early to determine any headlines at this time, but will be considered in future updates. KEY MESSAGE 3...Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. The base of a deep trough axis will pass through the region later Saturday. As it does so, the trough axis will then cutoff into an upper level low which will meander over the southern Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week. At the same time, strong and expansive high pressure will be building over the Ohio Valley. While confidence is increasing regarding a nor'easter developing off the North Carolina coast later this weekend, it must be said there remains a vast amount of uncertainty with regards to potential impacts to our region into next week. Considerable differences amongst global/ensemble guidance exists with regards to just how close/long this system will get/last in our region. Some guidance keeps the system suppressed further south due to the strong high to the north, which will then minimize potential impacts to our area. However, if the system is further north (and this has been the trend over the past 24 hours), then more in the way of impacts and unsettled weather may occur. At the very least, it is expected that gusty northeast breezes will occur for the majority of the week with the highest gusts located near coastal areas. While it isn't expected to be a washout by any means, there is at least a chance of showers each day for areas south and east of I-95 beginning as early as Sunday night through the end of the week. More details to come over the weekend once forecast guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z for Delaware Valley and KMIV/KACY. After that, mainly VFR, though showers may linger especially southern terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR, though showers and perhaps some MVFR cigs may linger southern terminals in the morning. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather expected. Sunday night...Primarily VFR. A slight chance of rain showers possible near KACY and KMIV. Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR, although sub-VFR conditions possible at times. A chance of rain showers each day for all terminals except KRDG and KABE. Gusty northeast winds up to 20 kt possible with gusts up to 30 kt possible near KMIV and KACY. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt gusts are likely Saturday. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Gale Warnings are in effect for offshore waters and Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for Atlantic coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Great Egg Inlet and Delaware Bay. North-northeast winds of 20-30 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday...A mix of Gales and Small Craft conditions are likely to continue on all waters. Northeast winds of 15-30 kt with gusts of 30- 40 kt possible. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday night through Wednesday...Due to developing nor'easter off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, a prolonged period of gale force conditions are expected to develop/continue across all marine waters. It should be noted that forecast confidence is low though. Northeast winds of 25-35 kt with gusts of 35-45 kt are possible. Seas of 10-16+ feet possible. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ001-007>009. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>452. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ453>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM  405 FXUS64 KOUN 162306 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Freeze Warning in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. Frost Advisory in the north and west. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cool temperatures and gusty northerly winds have been the story today. The wind will become light this evening as mixing decreases and the surface ridge of high pressure moves into northwest Oklahoma this evening. The NBM forecast low temperatures are at the low end of the guidance envelope, but still seem reasonable given the mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight with a floor where temperatures will approach the dewpoint. Temperatures near or slightly below 32 are forecast in Harper and Ellis Counties, so the Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning. It will likely not be a hard or long-duration freeze, but it will be a freeze nonetheless. Have also issued a frost advisory for the portions of northern and western Oklahoma where the forecast low will be in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cooler weather will persist through the weekend with below average temperatures for this time of year. Saturday will be quite cool, but highs will be slightly warmer (but still below average) on Sunday as the surface ridge slides southeast and surface pressures drop across southeastern Colorado increasing the pressure gradient and southerly winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions to continue. A few afternoon cu is expected to dissipate around sunset with the gusty north winds diminishing quickly around 01Z. Light north wind will continue overnight into the day Saturday with a gradually turn to the northeast and east. Across the west at CSM/WWR winds will shift to the south Saturday afternoon. Skies are expected to be clear during the day tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 38 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 36 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 32 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 35 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008- 010>016-021-022-033-034. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...30  514 FXUS66 KPQR 162309 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 408 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry through this evening before a weak cold front brings low to moderate chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Low chances for rain on Monday as a low pressure system likely remains well offshore. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another chance for light rain returns Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge shifting east over the Canadian Rockies while southwest flow increases aloft over the Pacific NW. Warm and dry weather continues through this evening while offshore surface pressure gradients weaken and the flow turns back onshore. Winds become more southerly ahead of a weak cold front that will approach the coast later this evening. As an upper level shortwave trough lifts across northwestern WA early Saturday, chances for light rain will increase along the coast and then spread inland through Sat morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Newport at the coast and from Eugene northward along the I-5 corridor. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. Dry weather is expected on Sunday as a relatively flat shortwave ridge passes over the region. Seasonable temperatures continue with highs peaking in the mid-60s for most interior lowlands and mid-50s to lower 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. /DH && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Night...There is generally good agreement among models and their ensembles that a rather robust low pressure system will move across the northeastern Pacific toward the Oregon coast early Monday, but remain far enough offshore before dropping south to bring any meaningful impacts to the area. In fact, chances for even light rain have generally decreases to around 25% or less, mainly near the coast and Coast Range south of Astoria. The upper level trough over the Pacific is expected to split with the main low pressure area moving south toward the central California coast on Tuesday. Ensemble clusters remain in decent agreement for the upper level low to persist near the California coast on Wednesday, while shortwave ridging nudges into the Pacific NW. There is high confidence for dry conditions to persist across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 60s. More uncertainly returns later next week as another upper level trough begins to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska. Chances for rain increase on Thursday, though currently remain less than 40%. /DH && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Sunday...Currently, VFR conditions inland and a mix of VFR to LIFR along the coast as marine stratus builds into the coastal terminals. Expect VFR conditions at inland terminals to continue through 12Z Sat while some coastal terminals will likely remain in IFR/LIFR conditions through around 18Z Sat. The one exception is that an approaching front tonight into tomorrow morning may help clear this low stratus at a few terminals. For example, while KONP may stay under IFR/LIFR conditions through around 18Z Sat, KAST may improve to MVFR/VFR conditions by 11Z Sat as the front approaches KAST and improves mixing. This approaching front will also increase high cloud coverage, chances of rain, and chances of MVFR conditions at inland terminals. There is limited confidence for rain at various terminals, with the highest confidence along the north OR/south WA coast (KAST, KTMK). Between 12-16Z Sat, there is a 40-60% chance of MVFR CIGs and rain at inland terminals. Gusty east winds through the western Columbia Gorge continues to weaken late this afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient eases. Elsewhere, light winds inland and west to northwest winds along the coast will turn out of the south to southwest at around 5 kt ahead of the frontal passage. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with increasing high cloud cover through this evening and into tonight. A passing front will bring chances for MVFR cigs and light rain from 12-15Z Sat. Light east winds this afternoon will turn southerly ahead of the frontal passage tonight. ~12 && .MARINE...Winds back today into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which will traverse the waters late tonight, before veering out of the northwest Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Seas of 5-7 ft at around 12 seconds otherwise continue through Saturday. The mid-period northwest swell will then build over the weekend, with seas rising to 8-10 ft. Chances for seas to exceed 10 ft reach 10-20% beyond 30 NM north of Cape Falcon. This swell will also pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the coast while overall seas remain relatively benign; caution should be used by those in or near the water along coastal beaches through this weekend. As another weather system looks to track southward well offshore of the Oregon and Washington coasts early next week, and may bring a period of steeper seas Monday into Tuesday although there remains uncertainty in the timing and potential peak wave height. The latest forecast depicts the westerly swell reaching 11-12 ft at 12-14 seconds Monday afternoon and evening before easing below 10 ft by Tuesday morning, with a 10-20% chance significant wave heights reach 15 ft or higher beyond 20 NM. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  938 FXUS64 KMAF 162313 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 613 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front brings the threat for the first freeze of the season for portions of SE NM and the higher terrain early Saturday morning. - Windy conditions continue behind the cold front through this evening. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Monitoring for low (10-40%) rain chances across our western counties by the middle of next week. More details to come in subsequent forecast packages. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 What a difference 24 hours makes. A strong cold front has pushed all the way past the river, advecting in very dry air and drying out the column. As such, any remaining shower activity should be confined to the Presidio Valley, and diminishing rapidly. Post- frontal winds have been quite blustery, and current warnings/advisories handle the situation well. CAA behind the front puts this afternoon's highs a good ~ 15 F below what they were yesterday. Tonight, as gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat under clearing skies, temperatures will plummet to the coldest yet this Fall, averaging over 10 F below climatology. A few areas in the mountains and Southeast New Mexico could even hit the freeze mark before diurnal heating commences Saturday, and we've upgraded the freeze watch to a warning. Saturday, CAA continues, resulting in highs very similar to today's. Fortunately, surface winds begin veering. These winds will veer back to return flow Saturday night, halting the CAA, and keeping overnight minimums a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Southerly return flow and clear skies allow for tempertures to rise into the 60s for most on Sunday. A warming trend continues through the end next week as Gulf moisture moves back into our area. Chances of rain (10-40%) return by midweek from the west due to upslope flow and embedded shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft. By the latter half of the week, guidance shows more widespread chances of rain as an upper trough approaches the region and potentially increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. However, there is much uncertainty in rain coverage and amounts at this time. This will depend on the track of the trough and moisture quality. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends and details shall become more clear in the coming days. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds are diminishing and should hold NE-SE at around 10KT or less this TAF period. VFR conditions continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 39 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 43 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 59 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 54 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 32 59 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 57 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 37 59 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 37 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for Central Lea- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  901 FXUS64 KTSA 162312 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gusty north winds continue Friday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures drop enough both Friday and Saturday nights to support frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy and much cooler conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night/s cold frontal passage. A few northerly wind gusts around 40 mph have been observed late this morning in far southeast Oklahoma, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across much of the rest of eastern Oklahoma. The very dry low levels will combine with the strong and gusty winds to lead to elevated fire weather concerns in far southeast Oklahoma where very little, if any, rainfall occurred in the last few days. A Fire Danger Statement was issued by an earlier shift through early evening and remains valid. Gust magnitude remains expected to decrease, albeit slowly, through the afternoon and the existing Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at 1 pm. Wraparound cloudiness is increasing late this morning, particularly in areas north of I-40, as the main upper level trough swings through the region. This cloudiness should stick around through the afternoon and possibly into part of the evening and overnight in parts of northwest Arkansas. The main issue tonight is the potential for areas of frost, especially in locations north and west of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds drop substantially overnight with the approach of surface high pressure, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Highest confidence in frost development is in parts of Osage, Pawnee and Washington counties, and a Frost Advisory will be issued for these areas for Saturday morning. Potential for more patchy frost will extend farther east along the Kansas border, but confidence is not high enough in the areal extent to issue an advisory that far east. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A low impact forecast will exist for much of the extended forecast. Saturday is shaping up to be absolutely fantastic for those who favor light winds, seasonably cool temperatures, low humidity and plenty of sun. Despite continued low afternoon humidities, the lighter winds will lead to improved fire weather conditions for southeast Oklahoma, and an additional Fire Danger Statement appears unnecessary. Additional frost development should occur Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern parts of the forecast area, with overnight lows being close to those expected tonight. Another Frost Advisory may be warranted. Southerly winds make a return to the area on Sunday, which will lead to warmer afternoon temperatures. Upper level ridging builds into the Central United States by early next week and persists through much of the upcoming week. This will keep warmer temperatures across the region, with near to above normal highs returning as early as Monday and certainly by Tuesday. The next chance of rain looks to accompany another strong storm system that makes its way eastward toward the area late in the week and into the next weekend. Low rain chances will return ahead of this feature possibly as early as Thursday-Friday, but with a trend toward a more delayed arrival, more likely over the next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026VFR conditions will continue to prevail, with stratocu deck eroding quickly after sunset, with the exception of NW AR where clouds are likely to hang on for several more hours. North winds gusting currently 20-25 knots will drop off next 1-2 hours with light north-northeast winds prevailing thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 39 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 44 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 42 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 35 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 37 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 41 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 40 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 38 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 40 61 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 44 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...14  019 FXUS64 KEWX 162315 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas through 7pm with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. - A potential return to a more active pattern is possible towards next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty winds continue early this afternoon as a surface pressure gradient remains behind our early morning cold front. Strong winds northeasterly winds from the sfc to 850mb will continue to send cooler and drier air into our region, but clouds will persist through the night as westerly flow persists above the 500mb level. Expect winds to remain strong beyond the expiration of the Wind Advisory, but below advisory criteria, as sustained speeds slip below 20 mph for most areas after sunset and gusts start to fall to less than 35 mph. Strong cold air advection, particularly between the 850mb and 700mb level will aid in a quick drop off in temperatures overnight. The coolest morning since the Spring is expected Saturday, as lows start in the low to mid 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and in the mid to upper 40s/lower 50s everywhere else. Clouds are expected to linger somewhat, but they will be of the upper level cirrus variety Saturday and Sunday afternoons as mid- level flow persists out of the west and WSW. Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to get out of the 60s for most areas as northerly winds remain on the breezy side, around 15-20 mph. Winds should relax finally Saturday evening, quickly after sunset as a surface high settles in to our northeast. Temperatures Sunday morning will dip as low as the upper 30s in some spots of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, with 40s expected everywhere else. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sunday, with most, if not all locations back in the lower to middle 70s. In summary. the weekend will be cool and dry with Fall in the air. Next week will feature a slow and steady warm-up, but the humidity shouldn't return to the level that it did earlier this week where we had mornings in the mid to upper 70s. By mid to late week, temperatures will warm back into the 80s with increasing southwesterly flow aloft as broad longwave troughing develops over the western CONUS. This could set the stage for a stormier pattern by late week into next weekend, but it is still too far out to have much confidence on where any rain may fall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Prevailing winds are beginning to gradually decrease as this past morning's cold front moves farther away. Gusts during the nighttime may continue to reach 20-30 kt as flow remains fast between FL010-FL050, but winds should lighten after sunrise with much lighter northerly flow at and near-surface Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions should persist through Saturday night with mostly clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 50 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 47 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 48 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 47 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 48 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 51 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...Tran  000 FXUS64 KJAN 162315 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for dangerous fire weather conditions continues into this weekend. - A "Red Flag Warning" remains in effect for the remainder of today, and will be in effect again on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight through next Thursday...A dry cold front is in the process of moving through the CWA this afternoon. Other than an increase in cloud cover, very little to no shower activity is forecast to accompany this front. Strong high pressure building into the forecast area in its wake, is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the region. These gusty northwest winds are ushering in a noticeably cooler drier airmass, that'll linger across the CWA through the weekend. While pleasant early fall conditions will exist during this time, temperatures will steadily warm across the region next week. However, the dry airmass will remain. Thus, resulting in less humid conditions throughout this forecast period. Once again on Saturday, a significant threat of dangerous fire weather conditions will exist across the forecast area. Soil conditions remain critically dry, with no rain chances in site. Breezy northerly winds will also promote a very dry airmass across the region. While lower high temperatures on Saturday will yield slightly higher afternoon minimum relative humidity values compared to today, humidity values will still fall to near critical levels at around 30-35% across nearly all of the area. Therefore, I've upgraded the "Fire Weather Watch" to a "Red Flag Warning" for Saturday on this afternoon's package. Today's "Red Flag Warning" is in effect until 8 PM CDT. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong and gusty northerly surface wind will continue over the forecast area through much of the forecast period. Overnight, as sfc wind diminishes a bit, LLWS will become a greater concern. Otherwise, ceilings should remain VFR tonight with clearing skies for Saturday. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 50 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 48 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 48 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 19/EC  975 FXUS64 KOHX 162314 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front is pushing through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only low, light rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is marching through the area this morning bringing overcast skies, gusty northwest winds, and dropping temperatures. It is quite the change from the record-breaking heat we saw Monday through Thursday. Radar shows some light returns west of I-65, so some sprinkles and light showers will be possible this afternoon and evening. Any rain amounts will be a trace to a couple hundredths. Breezy northwest winds will continue overnight with cloud cover lingering. With the cold air advection, temperatures will be able to fall to the lower to mid 40s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the season so far with temperatures only making it to the mid 50s to lower 60s! Breezy northerly winds will continue and RH values over the western half of the CWA will drop to around 30%. I would advise to not burn anything given the ongoing drought conditions. Saturday night will see winds decrease and temperatures drop into the 30s. Light frost is likely in the low- lying areas along the plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The story of the extended period will be the continuing dry conditions. High pressure will be established on Sunday with influences continuing through the work week. The upper low over the Carolina coast may retrograde west onshore mid to late week but those influences will stay east of our area. Locally, we'll see high temperatures slowly climb through the 70s through the week with plenty of sunshine. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A line of sprinkles/showers are moving east through the area, this will clear the eastern terminals by 04z. Cigs will briefly return to VFR this evening before MVFR cigs return by 07z. MVFR will remain in place through the overnight with clearing from west to east after 12z with clear skies building during the afternoon. Winds will remain gusty into tomorrow out of the north with gusts up to 22 knots. Winds will start to let up during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 46 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 44 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 41 54 33 63 / 40 0 0 0 Columbia 45 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 43 56 36 65 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 42 54 34 63 / 50 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 44 61 36 68 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 45 62 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 45 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller  968 FXUS65 KBOU 162314 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 514 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly but clear through tonight, and another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A rather chilly day is unfolding despite full sunshine. Clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass will allow strong radiational cooling tonight, with below freezing temperatures expected over most of the northeast plains again. Meanwhile, we'll see a light downslope component develop along the Front Range keeping most of Denver/Boulder areas a few degrees warmer. Most locations northeast of Denver observed a hard killing freeze last night (deemed as 28F or colder), so from this point forward we will only be issuing highlights for those areas where a killing freeze did not occur - namely the I-25 Corridor and far northeast corner of the state. That means a Freeze Warning for Sedgwick and Phillips Counties tonight where lows are expected to dip into the mid to upper 20s. For Saturday, an upper level ridge will build overhead with sunny skies and dry weather. Temperatures will be warming with highs pushing into the upper 60s to mid 70s, a few degrees above normal. Overall, another day of light winds can be expected with high pressure in control. There will just a slight increase of southerly winds over the eastern plains, resulting in localized elevated fire weather conditions mainly over Lincoln and Washington Counties. On Sunday, the upper level ridge axis will shift eastward with light southwest flow aloft developing. This supports a continuation of above normal temperatures, with highs pushing into the 70s again across most of the plains. Enough mid level moisture gets caught up in this flow to warrant a low chance of showers in the mountains by Monday and Tuesday. That chance of showers may very well increase Wednesday, depending on how much tropical moisture pulls northward in advance of the next trough digging southward off the West Coast. We are watching the arrival of this next storm system for the latter portions of next week, when the West Coast trough pushes east across the Rockies. There is considerable uncertainty this far out, especially as latest ensembles and operational runs are diverging from recent runs, splitting off a lead shortwave across the Central Rockies and Colorado Thursday or Thursday night, with a lingering trough holding farther west through next weekend. With more splitting being shown, the chances of significant precipitation in our forecast area have decreased. The highest odds now favor southwest Colorado once again as many of the storms have so far in September and October. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/... Issued at 510 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions thru the period. ESE winds will become more SSE at APA and DIA by 02z and then switch to drainage by 05z. For BJC, winds will be light and variable tonight. On Sat, light drainage winds in the morning will become SE in the 19z-20z timeframe. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...RPK  094 FXUS61 KALY 162316 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 716 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties has been canceled. The slight to low chance of thunderstorms has been removed from the forecast area for the rest of the night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the higher terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 has been canceled for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The threat for thunderstorms has diminished with the front moving across western New England early tonight. In the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low- level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a potential nor'easter near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame). && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z/Saturday...Conditions vary amongst the terminals this afternoon as visible satellite shows some breaks in a largely MVFR stratus deck, forcing isolated VFR conditions, with some scattered IFR heights throughout the region. Latest scans of the ENX radar indicate the significant breaking apart of what was formerly a pre-cold frontal rainband with little threat to impact any of the terminal domains within the next couple of hours. Winds are somewhat variable (southeast to southwest directions) ahead of the incoming cold front, with sustained speeds ranging from about 3 to 11 kt with occasional gusts between 20 to 30 kt at ALB and PSF. While eastward-translating breaks in cloud coverage could allow for additional, brief improvements in ceiling heights over the next couple of hours, the further encroachment of the cold front should reinforce the holes and force the return to consistent MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Additional batches of showers closer accompanying the cold front are beginning to fill into central New York and could impact terminals between 19-00z this afternoon and evening. However, because of the latest trends in the guidance and radar scans, confidence has become lower in the occurrence of showers at ALB, POU, and PSF. These sites were therefore given PROB30s to account for the potential of additional showers while GFL has a TEMPO given enough confidence in brief showers given their proximity to the eastern-most Great Lake. Once the cold front rips through this afternoon and this evening, fairly swift improvements to VFR ceiling heights are expected for all except PSF which could hang on to an MVFR ceiling longer into the overnight. Winds will also become very breezy behind the front, taking on a westerly and then northwesterly direction, with sustained speeds reaching 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt by the end of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...12  098 FXUS63 KGRR 162316 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 716 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and wind decrease tonight - Frost and freeze conditions tonight - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain and wind decrease tonight Rain and wind both decrease as we move through tonight. There is a definite diurnal component to the rain and we see in the models a distinct downward trend in both intensity and areal extent between 800pm and 1100pm. Mainly dry weather is expected from 1100pm on. As for the wind, the peak in the wind will occur this afternoon and evening with a noted downward trend in gustiness after 1100pm. Wind gusts through the evening will reach 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts. After midnight especially winds will decrease considerably. - Frost and freeze conditions tonight We have gone ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for our southern 2 rows of counties, essentially from Holland to Lansing to the south. To the north of there we have issued a Freeze Warning. The exception is the U.S. 10 row of counties where the growing season has ended due to earlier freezes. We are looking at temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 20s north in Central Lower Michigan to the lower 30s in the south towards I-94. Frost and freeze potential may occur in spots again Saturday night. The best chances will be across our southern CWA where there will be less wind. - Dry weather expected this weekend into this upcoming week High pressure will dominate the area weather both at the surface and aloft from this weekend through the upcoming work week. Ensemble members of the GFS and the ECWMF are entirely dry during this time frame which leads to a high confidence dry forecast. High temperatures will rebound from the 50s this weekend to the 60s next week. The normal high for today in Grand Rapids for reference is 61. We will have below normal temperatures this weekend moderating to slightly above normal next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are moving in with ceilings scattering out this evening and clear skies overnight into Saturday. Northwest winds with gusts around 20 to 25 knots will continue before weakening 5Z to 9Z. Westerly winds develop Saturday then turn to the southwest late Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds on Lake Michigan are just beginning to reach the peak phase, which is between 200pm and 100am. The actual peak will occur late this afternoon and evening between roughly 400pm and 800pm. We have had winds reach gale force already, but the more sustained gale is just now commencing. Waves have pushed towards 10 feet in our nearshore area, but should exceed 10 feet as we move forward into the evening hours. Bottom line, the Gale Warning looks good. Southwest flow ramps up on Saturday and from Saturday late afternoon into Sunday we are looking at another wind/wave event. At this point it looks like a Small Craft Advisory event, but it may be borderline gale in our northern zones. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...RAH MARINE...Duke  102 FXUS64 KLIX 162316 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front is currently moving through the region, bringing cooler and much drier conditions along with moderate northerly winds. Impacts of front passage below. - First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all of southern MS and portions of southeast LA Saturday. - Windy conditions behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of the coastal waters beginning this evening through Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory follows the Gale Warning and marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal waters into the new work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The forecast looks to be on track with a strong cold front approaching the area, currently located just outside our CWA. As this front moves in we will see a rapid increase in the winds, out of the north, with many areas gusting up to 30-35 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 3PM tomorrow for this reason. These winds will start to decrease over land Saturday evening. In addition to the wind, a surge of drier air will move in which when combined with the gusty winds and ongoing drought conditions will create dangerous fire weather conditions. RH values will drop down into the low ~30% for a good portion of the area. The Fire Weather Watch previously in effect has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all of southern Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana. Outside of the breezy winds and dry air, this cold front will bring our first real surge of cooler air! By the time people are waking up Saturday morning most areas will be in the low to upper 50s. Afternoon highs Saturday only reach the low to mid 70s for the entire area and with evening temperatures quickly dropping, it may be time to break out the gumbo pots! Sunday morning lows will be the coolest of the period, with many northern areas all the way down into the mid to upper 40s. Sunday afternoon highs will still feel very comfortable in the low to mid 70s. By Monday we will start to see highs creep back towards the 80 degree mark. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Heading into the long term period, an upper level ridge will start to dominate the region. This allows temperatures to start a warming trend, with highs back into the 80s by mid week. Fire weather could continue to be an issue in the long term period as RH values remain very low, even down into the ~20% range, though winds over land won't be nearly as high as following the front. With the lighter winds, not expecting any headlines but it is something to watch. Otherwise, following today's front the entire forecast period shows no precipitation which will likely lead to worsening drought conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is moving through the region, which is causing winds to pick up in intensity from the north across the region. Expect some gusts to approach or even exceed 30kts at times, especially southshore terminals. Winds will remain elevated through Saturday before gradually relaxing a bit just beyond the scope of this cycle. Otherwise, sky conditions should remain VFR through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will move through late today and tonight, bringing strong northerly gales and rapidly building seas. A gale warning has been issued beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday evening. As winds begin to slowly ease a bit over some of the protected waters Saturday gale headlines are replaced with advisories into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and continue to slowly ease to around 20kt late Sunday. These conditions are expected to last into the start of the new work week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086. GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ529- 531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572- 575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. GM...Gale Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for GMZ531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575- 577. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RDF MARINE...HL  145 FXUS64 KLUB 162318 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue this afternoon. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock late tonight into early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Fall came in with enthusiasm this morning with widespread low temps in the 40s and blustery north winds. Winds will remain elevated through at least mid afternoon before gradually decreasing as surface high pressure begins to settle over the FA. Surface temps have remained cooler than expected through noon with most areas on the Caprock still in the mid to upper 40s and in the low 50s off the Caprock. There is still time for temps to warm, but cloud cover would need to clear before the end of peak heating, and satellite is showing the opposite. The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a warning for tonight and Saturday morning. There is some concern with temperatures dropping to freezing or below across the southern half of the warning, mostly due to cloud cover. Models continue to hint at clearing skies after sunset just as the surface high begins to settle over the region. If skies do indeed clear, there should not be too much of an issue for temps to drop to freezing or below on the Caprock. Drier air continues to work its way into the FA with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 20s and still slowly dropping. This will help temps drop given clouds do clear. Winds will be slow to veer to the south Saturday with winds remaining mostly light and generally out of the north. This will help to keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The forecast Sunday and beyond remains fairly benign. Upper ridging will remain overhead through most of the coming week and will help to highs by mid week to the mid 70s on the Caprock and low 80s off the Caprock with morning lows back in the mid 50s. Another upper disturbance will begin to approach the FA by the end of the forecast period and could bring additional rainfall, but models continue to differ from run to run given the forecast being nearly a week out. In the event that rain chances increase, amounts will not be nearly what was observed over the past few days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. The current NE wind looks to drop off throughout the evening hours to about 5-10 knots, and eventually shift around to the SW tomorrow afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...SC  138 FXUS65 KFGZ 162317 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 417 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy weather continues through this afternoon. Less breezy on Saturday, then a weather system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday. This active pattern continues through most of next week with continued daily shower chances, occasional gusty winds, and below normal daytime temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...A strong easterly gradient is still present early this afternoon. This has brought very gusty east to northeast winds over the past 24 hours, especially downwind (west/southwest) of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino counties, as well as in the Little Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible through the rest of the afternoon, and a wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central Arizona through 6 PM MST today. Winds are expected to gradually relax tonight through Saturday as the gradient weakens, however locally gusty winds 30-40 mph will remain possible overnight. Other than the winds, expect cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon. An upper low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California will slowly push inland across Arizona this weekend, and will be accompanied by another surge of moisture. Upper level clouds start to encroach our area on Saturday afternoon, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening through Sunday- Monday. Most ensemble guidance keeps rainfall accumulations light, but some localized accumulations up to 0.5'' will be possible. Into next week, we remain in a highly active pattern. A deep trough is forecast to strengthen and dive along the California coast on Tuesday, then eventually propagate past Arizona later in the week. Long term ensemble guidance hints that this will bring a deeper moisture surge than this weekend, however there is still plenty of uncertainty on the exact timing/trajectory. The current forecast brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Besides the precipitation, expect a return to gusty winds by the middle of next week and continued cooler than normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Saturday 17/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds NE-E 10-15kts gusts to 25kts until 03Z, NE-E 5-15kts gusts to 20kts overnight in higher elevation terminals, light and variable or terrain driven lower elevation terminals, becoming E 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts after 18Z all locations. OUTLOOK...Sunday 18/00Z through Tuesday 20/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions, brief MVFR in heavier showers or thunderstorms. A chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in after 00Z Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds variable 5-15kts Sunday, S-SW 5-15kts Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...Cool temperatures with east through southeast winds around 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening through Sunday over the higher terrain. Minimum RH is 15-35% on Saturday, increasing to 40-70% on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. South winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south-southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  159 FXUS63 KABR 162319 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid 30s with patchy to area of frost possible. - Winds will increase tonight into Saturday, with a 40-70% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. && .UPDATE... Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Under a clear sky before winds increase, temperatures will quickly fall around 10F in the next 3 hours before steadying out as the winds increase out of the south. No significant changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool temperatures across the forecast area with readings in the 40s and 50s. These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. With the cool atmosphere, temperatures could fall quickly upon sunset, with reading in the 30s. Solely based the forecast low temperatures, have issued a frost advisory for the James River Valley, and a freeze warning further east. While marginal conditions, will lean on the side of caution for these headlines. As the surface high shifts southeast of the region, the forecast area will see increasing southerly winds, with gusts possible exceeding 35 to 45 mph along the higher terrain areas. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. The winds, along with some temperature advection may cause temperatures to become steady or slowly rise Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures will move into the area for the weekend with highs reaching the upper 50s and 60s. The upper level flow pattern through next week favors above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A deepening trough along the west coast will cause upper level ridging over the Northern Plains through most of the next work week. The west coast trough should move across the desert southwest and eventually into the area by the end of the work week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours, with winds out of the south increasing with gusts 20-30kt at most sites from 16Z through the afternoon hours. Slightly lighter winds are anticipated over north central SD (MBG), with gusts generally less than 10kts. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ020>023. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-018-019. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...06  330 FXUS63 KDMX 162321 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds gradually diminish into this evening. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rain showers this morning were a bit more widespread than initially thought at this time yesterday but have since diminished this afternoon. The gusty north to northwest winds remain with sustained winds around 15-30 mph, and gusts to 25-40 mph. Gusts have started to come down in northern Iowa and the highest gusts as of early afternoon were in central Iowa. These gusts will continue to diminish gradually through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Temperatures today have been chilly as expected with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s and feel-like temperatures with the gusty winds only in the 40s. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with evening activities experiencing temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s and feel-like temperatures largely in the 30s, even with the wind diminishing. You'll certainly want to take those jackets and blankets should you be attending any outdoor events tonight! Overnight lows tonight will similarly be chilly and as has been advertised over the last several days, near to just above/below freezing. Confidence in the widespread 32 degrees or below temperatures is not as high as it was this time yesterday. The surface high pressure swinging through the region is not quite as far north and moves out quicker. This has decreased the opportunity for prime radiational cooling. In northern to portions of western Iowa, this means the pressure gradient will increase sooner allowing for winds to begin increasing again during the later overnight. The faster departure of the high also means winds out of the southwest return in much of the area prior to daybreak Saturday. As noted on the previous shift, there is also a steep inversion that remains in place through the night. All this to say, we may not drop off as efficiently or as low as we otherwise could have. It will still be the coldest night of the season so far with a widespread frost expected. Temperatures themselves may only near or fall just below freezing in some locations and be at or just above in others. Rural areas have the better chances to fall below while urban areas may be slightly warmer. Kept the Freeze Warning as is with the chance that these near 33 degree temperatures in portions of central/southeast Iowa may be able to dip back to that 32 degree mark and any sensitive vegetation is likely to be affected regardless. Some patchy fog may also be possible but confidence is low with the increasing winds and residence time of the high pressure. Saturday will feature ample sunshine and start a warming trend again as highs climb back towards the upper 50s to low 60s. As noted, winds out of the southwest will be breezy, especially for the northwest half of the area with gusts to around 15-30 mph, the highest gusts in the north/northwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A continued warming trend is expected Sunday and beyond. Temperatures return to the 60s to end the weekend and start the new work week and then climb to the 70s by midweek. Outside of some breezy conditions and clouds at times next week as systems beneath the upper ridge near the region, the going forecast remains pleasant and dry. Rain chances then start to return late next week or weekend with details to be refined over the coming days.&& .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusts will subside in the next 2-3 hours and winds will become variable overnight. Remaining VFR cloud cover will exit to the southeast overnight, leaving mostly clear skies for the remainder of the period. Winds will become southwesterly tomorrow with gusts most likely at KMCW after 18z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Jimenez  258 FXUS63 KFGF 162320 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are forecast for portions of west central MN tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Synopsis... Yesterdays cold front has left us with quite cool temperatures today, as many locations are only in the 40s as of early this afternoon. The surface ridge axis is now shifting through eastern ND, quickly propagating to the east. This has resulted in sunny skies area wide. These clear skies will last into the overnight, bringing widespread low temperatures in the 30s. The coldest areas will be in portions of west central MN, where a freeze warning has been issued for temperatures as low as 30 degrees. Over the weekend, upper level ridging will build in. In the low levels, a much warmer airmass will advect in from the west, leading to above average temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the weekend. Temperatures of these values (or even slightly warmer by Wednesday) will persist all the way into the latter portions of next week. The NBM shows high predictability in this long stretch of dry/warm weather, with only a 2 to 4 degree high temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles each day. This agreement makes sense conceptually due to a blocking pattern setting up with ridging over the central US and troughs/lows more or less over each of CONUS's coasts. There are signs late in the week of a transition to southwesterly flow as the western trough digs and starts to propagate eastward. However, how this evolves remains uncertain, so at this timeframe the forecast features a smattering of low end precipitation chances starting Friday. ...Freeze Tonight... The coldest temperatures tonight are forecasted to be in west central MN, which will be in the closest proximity to the southeastward propagating surface ridge. Elsewhere winds pick up quite rapidly after sunset, increasing mixing, likely keeping us a couple of degrees warmer then we otherwise would be. Due to higher winds across the rest of the FA, temperatures, while chilly, should remain above freezing in the mid 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected across eastern ND and northwest MN due to a much drier air mass in place through the TAF period. Winds are increasing from the south and southwest this evening due to increasing pressure gradient as surface high pressure slides southeast. These surface winds will help mix the low levels eliminating any potential for radiation fog at TAF sites. A low level jet (35-45kt) will move through the region later this evening and into the morning hours Saturday, resulting in a period of low level wind shear. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ029>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...DJR  338 FXUS63 KGRB 162321 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds will come to an end early this evening. Gale force gusts are expected across the marine zones through early this evening. Southwest winds will increase Saturday with gusts to 25 mph, and continue on Sunday with gusts to 30 mph possible. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight as low temperatures fall into the middle 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. - A prolonged stretch of dry and warm conditions expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rest of Today and Tonight: Strong cold advection and deep mixing will continue to produce strong northerly winds through early this evening with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 30-40 mph. Locally stronger gusts near 45 mph are possible across northern Door Co. Winds will quickly diminish this evening (after 7pm) as surface temperatures quickly cool and stabilized the boundary layer. Skies are also expected to become partly to mostly clear tonight allowing for temperatures to fall into to the middle to upper 20s across central and northern WI and the low 30s across east-central WI. A Freeze Warning is in effect for all counties where the growing season has not ended, except Door county where lows will likely stay a few degrees warmer. Intermittent light showers will also continue through this afternoon across central and northern WI with cold northwest winds coming off Lake Superior. Expect those showers to diminish this evening. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. This weekend will temperatures will rebound back towards normal as return southwesterly flow sets up over the region. Temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees warmer each day next week with highs by the middle of the week forecast to top 70 degrees across much of the region. With return to seasonally above normal temperatures and a prolonged dry period into next week will need to monitor fuels across drought stricken areas of northern WI to the possibility of an increased wildfire risk. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Any lingering low-end VFR clouds will dissipate over the next hour and leave clear skies in place through the remainder of this TAF period. The gusty northwest winds will also subside over the next hour. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly overnight and increase mid-morning Saturday through early Saturday evening, with gusts to around 20 kts. A very brief period of LLWS is anticipated at the RHI TAF site Saturday morning (12z-14z) before the surface southwesterly winds increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds have ramped this morning. Waves will also build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the Bay into tonight before winds and waves diminish early Saturday. Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday winds turn to the southwest and increase again. Addtioanl marine headlines will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines until the current headlines expire. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Kruk MARINE.........GK  406 FXUS61 KALY 162323 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties has been canceled. The slight to low chance of thunderstorms has been removed from the forecast area for the rest of the night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the higher terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 has been canceled for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The threat for thunderstorms has diminished with the front moving across western New England early tonight. In the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low- level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s acrosseastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a potential nor'easter near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame). && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z Sunday...Cold front has cleared the entire area. Dry weather expected the rest of the night, except for some -SHRA lingering behind the front at KPSF through around 01z. Mainly VFR conditions with mid level clouds should prevail tonight into early Saturday morning, except for MVFR cigs lingering at KPSF tonight due to NW upslope flow. Clouds will scour out by late Saturday morning as high pressure approaches from the west. Winds will become northwest tonight and increase to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt developing, lasting through Saturday afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...07  391 FXUS63 KARX 162322 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning Late Tonight and early Saturday Morning. - Mainly dry through much of next week with slowly rising temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight High pressure, currently located over the Northern and Central Plains, will build quickly east across the area tonight. As this occurs, the surface pressure gradient will slacken. The combination of light winds and clear skies will result is strong radiative cooling. As typical with the NBM, it looked too warm in central Wisconsin so blended in some MOS. Low temperatures will range the mid-20s to lower 30s. There may be even a few locations in the lower 20s in central Wisconsin. Weekend The surface high pressure area will shift east into the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. As this occurs, the winds will become southerly and increase into the 10 to 20 mph. High temperatures will warm into the mid- and upper 50s on Saturday and into the lower and mid-60s on Sunday. Monday through Friday A 500 mb ridge will build across the region early in the week and it will keep the area dry and unseasonably warm through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s through Wednesday and around 70s Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions should persist over the next 24 hours. The wind will continue to decrease and should drop down to around 5 kts through the overnight hours. The wind will once again increase after sunrise with gusts upwards of 20-25 kts towards the end of this TAF cycle. Clear skies are expected across the region. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Muscha  360 FXUS63 KILX 162322 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight along and west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. - Frost will be likely across all of central and southeast Illinois Saturday night as winds become nearly calm. Sensitive outdoor plants need to be protected this weekend in order to avoid damage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 998mb low over southern Quebec with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile a sprawling 1046 high is building into the Plains. The pressure gradient between the departing front and the approaching high has resulted in strong/gusty northwesterly winds across central Illinois today. The latest regional observations continue to indicate gusts of 25-30mph and these will continue for the next few hours before gradually beginning to diminish toward sunset. Ample cloud cover blankets the region as a trough axis drops southward out of Wisconsin/Michigan. Once the trough sinks south of central Illinois, synoptic subsidence on its back side will allow skies to at least partially clear by mid to late evening...followed by clear skies across nearly the entire KILX CWA overnight. The exception will be along and east of a Danville to Casey line where a persistent lake-effect band will result in continued partly to mostly cloudy conditions through dawn Saturday. While skies will become clear elsewhere, winds will remain in the 10-15mph range through the evening. As the pressure gradient continues to loosen, winds will eventually drop below 10mph and may become light/variable across the Illinois River Valley toward daybreak. With lows dropping into the lower to middle 30s and overnight winds diminishing, have opted to continue the Frost Advisory for locations along/west of a Lacon...to Lincoln...to Taylorville line. High pressure will build overhead on Saturday, resulting in sunny skies and light winds with chilly highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. While winds will be calm Saturday evening, a light S/SE return flow will develop across the western half of the CWA overnight as the high slowly shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley. With clear skies and very light winds, it appears Saturday night will feature a better shot at widespread frost across all of central and southeast Illinois. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. After that, the rest of the 7-day forecast looks quiet as upper ridging builds over the Midwest. While an occasional weak short-wave trough may temporarily impede the process and bring a few clouds and perhaps even a light shower, the overall pattern is decidedly warmer and drier. Highs will start out near seasonal normals in the middle to upper 60s on Sunday...then will approach 80 degrees by next Wednesday-Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widely scattered showers should come to an end over the next few hours. Skies will clear from west to east later tonight as high pressure works in, allowing winds to ease. VFR conditions are expected through Saturday with winds becoming light and variable. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031- 036-037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Barnes DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...NMA  392 FXUS63 KLSX 162322 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost is expected north of I-70 late tonight into early tomorrow morning. - Cooler temperatures are expected the next couple of days, followed by more seasonable temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mesoanalysis shows that a sharp upper-level trough is over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The trough is a main driver for the widespread cloud cover currently over the region. There are embedded isolated showers within the cloud cover caused by weak low and mid-level lapse rates combined with weak warm air advection providing just enough lift to allow for sustainment of these isolated showers. The trough also brought the cold front through our region yesterday that introduced northwesterly flow resulting in much cooler temperatures compared to the last several days. This afternoon we are not expected to have temperatures above the mid 50s, which is 20-30 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. As this trough continues its trek to the east, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will move in covering the central CONUS. This evening, the approaching ridge will result in gradually lowering wind speeds and clearing skies from north to south. Radiative cooling will allow low temperatures overnight in northeast MO and west-central IL to drop into the mid-30s. With low wind, clear skies, and low temperatures there is high confidence for frost development, so the Front Advisory remains in effect for late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Southeastern MO and southwestern IL will not experience any frost due to remaining cloud cover and associated warmer temperatures as the clouds continue to scatter out to clear skies Saturday morning. Thanks to the approaching ridge, Saturdays high temperatures are expected to rebound to around 60 degrees, which is still around 10 degrees below our seasonal normals. Cold and clear conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, creating another risk for frost development across the region, but there still remains uncertainty with the exact location of the surface high and subsequently surface winds. A Frost Advisory is currently not in effect for tomorrow night, but is not off the table if conditions allow. Sundays high temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer (in the mid-60s), as the ridge settles over the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is a consensus among ensemble and deterministic guidance that once the ridge moves over the region tomorrow, that it will remain through the week. This leads to high confidence in a relatively uneventful week. The ridge will be bookended by troughing along the West and East Coasts causing weak low-level southwesterly flow during the week. As a result, there exists support for warm air advection, albeit subtly. This will result in a gradual warming of temperatures through the week. The first half of the week will see a return to near normal temperatures, but how much we warm by the end of the week remains uncertain. LREF guidance has Thursdays high temperatures in the low to mid-70s, while the NBM has upper-70s to low-80s. The NBM is likely warmer due to it being composed of bias-corrected guidance that is warmer than non-bias guidance. This warm bias is likely a result of it currently being the cooling season combined with recent unseasonably warm events. Given this potential impact from the bias correction, the NBM is probably too warm and confidence is low in its temperatures towards the end of the week. Confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through the week due to the presence of weak flow aloft and lack of any notable disturbances in both deterministic and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Showers diminish quickly this evening, and guidance suggests clouds will also dissipate shortly thereafter with VFR conditions expected once that occurs. Winds diminish and become light, then begin to turn around to more southerly during the day Saturday, but remaining light. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019- 026-027-034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060- 095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Asel/BSH LONG TERM...Asel/BSH AVIATION...Kimble  378 FXUS63 KTOP 162322 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect tonight and early Saturday. -After a few chilly days, temperatures gradually warm into the middle of next week. -Rain chances stay low until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Windy and cloudy conditions continue in eastern KS this afternoon while an upper trough axis pushes east of the area and as a large surface ridge builds in from west. The ridge will settle over the area tonight, allowing skies to clear and winds to become calm. This creates favorable conditions for radiational cooling and very chilly temperatures tonight and early Saturday. With the first freeze expected for some, confidence was high enough to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the northwestern half of the forecast area, and to continue the Frost Advisory for our remaining counties where temperatures will drop to near freezing. There could be some isolated locations, especially those in valleys, within the Advisory area that also drop to or just below freezing for a few hours before sunrise tomorrow. High pressure begins moving east of the area tomorrow but the associated cool and dry air mass will stick around. Highs tomorrow afternoon will run about ten degrees below average, capping temps around 60 degrees. Southwesterly flow and warming 850mb temperatures will help nudge highs into the mid and upper 60s on Sunday. A warming trend will continue into the middle of next week with each day about four to five degrees warmer than the previous day. While a few shortwaves in southwest flow aloft may move over western KS periodically this week, have kept POPs less than 10 percent until the very end of the week when a strong system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Gusty north winds will diminish after sunset and become light an variable Tonight through Saturday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ026-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Gargan  358 FXUS64 KSJT 162322 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM this evening for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected through this weekend, with some low-lying areas potentially falling into the low 30s early Saturday and Sunday morning. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds left in the wake of yesterday's cold front will linger through early this evening before gradually diminishing overnight tonight into Saturday. A Wind Advisory remains in place through 7PM tonight for northerly winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Cold overnight low temperatures will also linger through the weekend, with lows each morning dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Models continue to keep afternoon highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this airmass behind the front is much drier than previous days, so there is little to no chance for precipitation in the forecast through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After a chilly start to the weekend, below normal and cooler temperatures this weekend will begin to gradually trend warmer and closer to seasonal normals by mid next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable with skies remain clear Saturday night into Sunday morning, providing a good setup for radiational cooling. This would cause overnight lows to fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s, which could bring the potential for a light frost being experience across these areas that see the coldest temperatures. A steady warm up will continue into the end of next week as upper-level ridging redevelops across the areas mid to late next week. High temperatures are expected to gradually rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s by mid week, and into the 80s by next Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect winds to become less breezy overnight with a gradual decrease in cloud cover. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 41 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 61 39 60 37 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 62 41 61 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 62 42 61 39 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 41 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 59 41 59 38 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 60 41 59 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...41  481 FXUS62 KJAX 162325 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 725 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated TStorms Across North Central FL this Afternoon & Evening - Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Gusts of 30-40 mph at Coastal Locations from Saturday through Monday. Gale Watch for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from Saturday through Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights: Afternoon surface analysis depicts a strong cold front extending from New England southward through the southern Appalachians and the lower Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, impressively strong high pressure (1046 millibars) for mid-October was building eastward from the Rockies towards the Plains states in the wake of this strong cold front. Aloft...stout ridging centered east of the Bahamas was extending its axis westward to our area, downstream of a potent trough that was digging southeastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass was lingering across southeast GA, where PWATs were generally around 1.25 inches. Otherwise, deeper moisture was gradually advecting northward from the FL peninsula ahead of the approaching front, with PWATs climbing to near or just above 1.75 inches across north central FL, while values elsewhere were slowly approaching 1.5 inches. A healthy cumulus field has developed across our area as moisture levels gradually increase, but shower development thus far remains just south of our area in Volusia County (along the developing Atlantic sea breeze boundary), with convection otherwise confined to the Gulf waters adjacent to FL's Nature coast, as well as the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to east central FL. Temperatures at 18Z have generally climbed to the mid and upper 80s, with dewpoints ranging from the low and mid 60s across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley to the low and mid 70s along the northeast FL coast. Enough moisture will advect across north central FL later this afternoon and early this evening for isolated to widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to develop, mainly for locations around Lake George and Crescent Lake, with measurable rainfall chances generally confined to areas south of a line from Gainesville to Palatka to St. Augustine. Any showers or isolated storms that develop across north central FL should dissipate before the mid-evening hours, followed by increasing multi-layered cloud cover overnight. Potent troughing aloft will dig into the southeastern states tonight, driving a strong cold front across southeast GA and Suwannee Valley during the overnight and predawn hours, with this front crossing north central and coastal northeast FL towards sunrise. A few showers or light sprinkles will be possible along or just behind the frontal boundary, with winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly during the predawn hours and becoming gusty from north to south towards sunrise. Lower stratus cloud cover will also overspread our region during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday, and late arriving cold air advection will drop lows to around 60 for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, ranging to the lower 70s for north central and coastal northeast FL. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strengthening Northerly Winds Tonight: Gusts to around 30-40 mph expected on Saturday through Sunday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas. - Coastal & Marine Hazards Increase This Weekend Strong frontal boundary will likely have already cleared our area by Saturday Morning, as cool and dry high pressure ridging quickly builds in from the west, ushering in both the coolest and driest airmass of the fall season so far. This airmass will also feature windy northerly conditions Saturday that will transition towards more of a northeasterly wind event on Sunday. Not expecting much in the way of rainfall/convection with the frontal passage, though Hi- Res guidance is highlighting at least some isolated shower potential Saturday over southern areas, mainly during the morning hours. The main difference with this event compared to the previous onshore flow event will be the strength of the presssure gradient and therefore expected winds, as low pressure rapidly intensifying off the Carolinas and pulling away towards the northeast will tighten the gradient. Despite flow generally around 15-25 mph with gusts up to the 30-40 mph range, tidal influences will line up closer to a new moon cycle, and therefore not expecting as impactful of a coastal/river flood event at this time. However, the persistent flow and some remnant tides still trapped in some areas (especially upstream for the St. Johns River) could return flooding concerns, but not until after the short term period. With this forecast package, have begun High Risk for Rip Currents beginning Saturday Morning, in addition to Small Craft Advisories/Gale Warnings over area waters. Saturday will be overall warmer than Sunday with overall decreasing clouds, and chances for a few isolated showers over southern areas as mentioned above. High temps will be mainly in the 70s, though some areas may see a high temperature overnight tonight due to the cold air advection. Low temps will have a larger discrepancy thanks to the onshore flow: Upper 40s to mid 50s are expected generally north and west of the coast and St. Johns River Valley, with upper 50s to low 60s south and east. Highs will struggle to get out of the 60s for many on Sunday, with just a few clouds inland and more maritime influenced clouds streaming onshore further south and east. Isolated to widely scattered showers may also make it to the immediate coastline at times on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Monday through Wednesday - Below Normal Temperatures This Period Strong high pressure will remain oriented to the north and northeast through most or all of the long term period, driving a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow. Model guidance is generally more divided with respect to the behavior of both the upper low and surface low to our northeast towards mid to late week, though there is at least enough agreement with respect to the system lingering near the offshore Carolinas vicinity through at least the Monday/Tuesday time frame, which will keep the enhanced onshore conditions going to an extent. As expected, beach, marine, and river hazards are forecast to continue through much of the long term, with magnitude of coastal/river flooding impacts to be monitored over the coming days - though confidence is growing with respect to at least coastal flood advisory conditions for the St. Johns River and coast. Temperatures will remain generally below normal for long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this period. A cold front will move southeast across the area overnight. Winds will pick up following the frontal passage, especially following sunrise Saturday. Elevated and gusty winds will then continue troughout the remainder of this 00z TAF period. A few showers are possible along and just behind the front, but these showers will be isolated. && .MARINE... A strong cold front entering the southeastern states will cross our local waters early on Saturday morning. Isolated late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible well ahead of this front, mainly for the waters south of St. Augustine. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then be possible during the predawn and morning hours on Saturday during the frontal passage. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday, with speeds quickly increasing to Gale levels during the late morning and early afternoon hours as strong high pressure over the southern Plains states in the wake of this front shifts quickly northeastward towards the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening, with this feature then wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary to the east of the Gulf Stream waters off the southeastern U.S. coast on Saturday night, with this feature then drifting westward towards the Outer Banks through the early portions of next week. Gale conditions will likely continue throughout our local waters from Saturday night through Monday night, with seas building to 10-15 feet. Low pressure may become stationary near the southeastern seaboard towards midweek, likely keeping strong north-northeast winds in place. Rip Currents / High Surf: A lower end moderate risk may develop this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches as onshore winds develop behind the inland moving sea breeze. A high risk will then develop from north to south on Saturday, as strengthening northwesterly winds during the morning shift to northerly during the afternoon hours, with frequent Gale Force wind gusts creating building and dangerous surf conditions. Breakers at the northeast FL beaches will build to the 8-10 foot range on Sunday, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Breakers at the southeast GA beaches will likely build to the 5-7 foot range from Sunday through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND - Sunday Night West to southwest winds will be expected today ahead of the front, except generally east of the I-95 corridor this afternoon thanks to a weak sea breeze influence. Dispersions will be mostly in the fair to good range, highest over interior GA where winds aloft will be a bit stronger. A strong but mostly dry cold front moves through tonight and through Saturday, ushering in a dry and windy north to northeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. This will result in good dispersions this weekend, which could be high at times during the afternoon/evening in some patchy areas. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline each night this weekend thanks to persistent breezy onshore flow. This general pattern will continue, albeit become a bit weaker, for much of next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning on Sunday and likely continuing through at least themiddle portion of next week. Significant beach erosion is likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning on Sunday, where breakers will build to the 8-10 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Minor to moderate beach erosion will be possible around times of high tide at the southeast GA beaches, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday, where breakers will likely build to the 5-7 foot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 69 49 64 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 74 55 69 / 10 20 0 0 JAX 68 74 56 68 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 71 76 63 71 / 20 20 10 20 GNV 69 75 55 70 / 10 20 0 0 OCF 70 75 57 72 / 30 30 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. && $$  473 FXUS62 KMLB 162325 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rounds of showers and storms expected this afternoon through Saturday, between a summer-like sea breeze collision today, and a front pushing through Central Florida tomorrow. Drier conditions behind the front, but onshore moving showers remain possible. - There is potential for bands of heavy rainfall to produce flooding in the southern counties, mainly coastal Martin, late Saturday into Sunday. Locally high rainfall of 2-4" is possible, and there is a 1 in 10 chance for amounts in excess of 6" in one or two spots leading to flash flooding. - Breezy to windy conditions developing behind the front will produce multiple beach and marine hazards Saturday that are forecast to linger into much of next week, including dangerous boating conditions, high surf, life-threatening rip currents, and moderate beach erosion. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rest of Today-Tonight...High moisture in light SE-E flow under weak high pressure is supporting isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms on the inland moving sea breeze. Modest SW-S flow in the mid-levels is producing some training of heavy rainfall, as well as slow to nearly stationary movement of individual cells, which could result in locally high rainfall amounts of 2-4". Due to a combination of saturated soils and potential for heavy rainfall, most of East Central Florida remains outlook in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding. Only portions of Lake and Volusia counties to the north aren't included. Soundings show a typical late wet season profile, with a nearly saturated atmosphere, warm mid-levels, and modest instability. A couple storms that managed to find a more favorable environment have been observed early this afternoon, producing occasional lightning strikes, and other storms that manage to develop the rest of the afternoon and evening may produce more frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 45 mph. Activity will trend inland with the Atlantic breeze, colliding with the Gulf breeze over the interior in the evening. This activity is forecast to wander back towards the east coast through the early overnight, generally dissipating or moving offshore after midnight. Mostly dry conditions through the rest of the night until the next front arrives Saturday morning. Temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland. More humid conditions today will also produce peak heat index values around 98-102F. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Thursday...Prolonged breezy to windy northeasterly flow will produce hazardous beach and marine conditions through much of the coming week. The pressure gradient tightens across the Florida peninsula Saturday between a cold front pushing through the area, high pressure building into the eastern US behind the front, and a disturbance developing on the front near the Atlantic seaboard. The front stalls over South Florida to the Straits of Florida Sunday, as the low pressure system becomes cut off over the western Atlantic waters off the eastern seaboard seaboard, and the high settles north and west of the front/low. These three features are forecast to move very little through at least the first half of next week, keeping the pressure gradient tight and continuing strong northeasterly flow. The greatest uncertainty in the forecast lies withposition and strength of the developing low, which models are still waffling on, and has resulted in forecast winds coming down a little from the previous package. However, this is just one model cycle, and NBM probabilities for gusts approaching Wind Advisory criteria along the coast remain moderate to high (40-70%) late Saturday into Sunday. Therefore will continue to message sustained wind speeds could reach 15-20 mph inland, up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with gusts 30-35 mph possible across much of the area the next several days. Gusts could push to 40 mph along the coastal corridor late Saturday through Sunday, and into Monday. The pressure gradient is forecast to loosen a little going toward mid-next week as the high weakens and the low drifts north, allowing winds to ease a bit, but conditions are forecast to remain breeze to windy. This extended period of fresh onshore flow will produce rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents. Entering this dangerous water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed in upcoming forecast packages. As for rain chances, the prospect for lightning storms along and ahead of the front Saturday morning for the northern counties is decreasing, but can't be completely ruled out. Best chances remain in the southern counties (Treasure Coast to Okeechobee) where daytime heating will be able to destabilize before the front arrives. Overall rain chances Saturday reflect the storm chances, lower (20-40%) across the north, and higher (50-80%) across the south. Models have consistently signaled potential for multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms late Saturday into the overnight across the southernmost counties, mainly Martin, that could produce locally high rainfall amounts 2-4" leading to flooding, and 1 in 10 chance of amounts in excess of 6" producing flash flooding in one or two places, especially given how saturated soils are. There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall for coastal Martin into southern portions of coastal St. Lucie counties. Other convective hazards will include occasional to frequent lightning where storm manage to develop, and gusty winds to around 45 mph. Drier air filters in behind the front Sunday knocking rain chances way down, though some moisture may linger across the south depending where the front settles. Despite the drier air, the fresh onshore flow is expected to whip up isolated to scattered low-top showers over the Atlantic waters, some of which may move onshore. The rest of the forecast generally continues low (20-30%) rain chances along the coastal corridor, and very low (less than 20%) chances inland. More noticeable cooling behind this front, as high temperatures lower to U70s-M80s Saturday, then M70s-L80s Sunday, before gradually warming back up through the work week. Lows drop to the 60s-L70s, reaching the U50s in the usually cooler northern areas, through much of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rest of Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions continue through tonight before quickly deteriorating this weekend. Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and the local area is ushered off eastward ahead of an approaching front and following deep high pressure. Light SSE-SE winds this morning have shifted more onshore from the sea breeze, but may become squirrelly at times, before shifting offshore late tonight as the front nears. Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop near the coast and inland, then push offshore late this evening intotonight. Saturday-Tuesday...Boating conditions rapidly become hazardous to dangerous Saturday, and are forecast to continue into next week. The pressure gradient will tighten across Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters Saturday between a cold front pushing south and deep high pressure over the Eastern US, and is forecast to remain tight into the first half of next week as low pressure system develops off the eastern seaboard. Winds 20-30 kts with occasional to frequent gusts to gale force from the N-NE spread southward through Saturday behind the front, overspreading the waters by late Saturday into Sunday. Gale Watches for the Volusia and Space Coast waters have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for frequent gusts to gale force. Confidence the Treasure Coast waters will reach frequent gusts to gale has decreased this forecast package, and will continue with Small Craft Advisories for now, but upgrades to Gale Watch or Warning may be needed if future forecasts trend up. A strong NE breeze and occasional to frequent gusts to gale force are forecast to persist into at least Monday. Seas also quickly build behind the wind surge to 5-10 ft north of Sebastian Inlet by Saturday evening, up to 10-15 ft Sunday evening. Winds and seas are forecast to settle a little towards mid-week, but remain at least Advisory level. Repeated rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue into Saturday, especially across the southern waters. The strong onshore flow will be able to whip up isolated to scattered showers next week, but lightning storm chances very low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Lingering VCTS/VCSH through 02Z at the terminals with winds becoming light and variable overnight. An approaching cold front early Saturday will lead to a return of VCSH as early as 09Z at LEE, expanding southeastward across the terminals through the remainder of Saturday. Winds strengthen out of the NNE, with sustained winds of 12-20 knots and gusts up to 26 knots possible at times, strongest along the coast. Persistent VCSH is anticipated across all terminals with lower confidence in VCTS, though it certainly cannot be ruled out. Too early for PROB30s/TEMPOs, but will continue to monitor closely and update as needed. Showers and any isolated storms will slowly diminish tomorrow evening, clearing out beyond 00Z across the Treasure Coast terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 78 65 74 / 20 30 10 20 MCO 73 80 65 77 / 30 40 10 10 MLB 73 82 69 79 / 40 50 30 20 VRB 73 84 70 81 / 40 70 50 20 LEE 72 78 61 75 / 30 40 0 10 SFB 72 79 64 76 / 20 40 10 10 ORL 74 80 65 76 / 30 40 10 10 FPR 72 83 70 80 / 40 70 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550- 570. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552- 572. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Tollefsen  442 FXUS63 KICT 162324 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first freeze/frost of the season expected for most of the area tonight/Saturday morning. - Temperatures expected to rebound this weekend through the end of next week. 80-degree highs are possible to return by mid- week. - Little to no precipitation is forecast over the next 6-7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND... Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis this afternoon shows a sharp and vigorous deep layer trough progressing eastward out of the central CONUS, a weak upper low southwest of southern California, and a building upper ridge across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a potent post-frontal airmass continues to dominate the central plains with gusty northern winds supporting continue strong low-level CAA. However, as a surface ridge slides into Kansas tonight, winds are expected to quickly decrease become nearly calm by late tonight. These calm winds, along with clear skies, should allow for ample radiational cooling. It's likely much of the area will see their first frost and/or freeze of the season, especially across central Kansas. With dewpoints in the upper 20s, and such optimal conditions for radiational cooling, one would think that the bottom may fall out on min temps overnight; however, soil temps in the 50s and 60s should somewhat limit how cold conditions get overnight/early Saturday morning. Still lows will generally range from the upper 20s across central Kansas to the mid 30s across southeast Kansas. The surface ridge sliding eastward on Saturday, along with modest pressure falls across the High Plains, should support the return of southerly low level flow as soon as Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually rebound this weekend with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 60s. Overnight lows in the mid 30s Saturday night could be just cold enough for areas of frost once again, then overnight lows Sunday night will be a bit more mild with 40s expected area-wide. NEXT WEEK... Deterministic and ensemble guidance next week signals a rather stagnant mid/upper level pattern. Persistent deep layer troughing is anticipated across the western CONUS, and mid/upper ridging will remain stuck over the central and southern plains. With persistent southwesterly upper flow over the southern Rockies, a standing surface trough will remain across the High Plains and encourage steady southerly low-level flow. This pattern supports a high likelihood that temperatures will rebound quickly next week, and highs could return to the 80s as soon as Wednesday. These above average highs should continue through the end of next week. In general, moisture looks to hold off over the next 6-7 days. Long range global models are hinting at the possibility that moisture from another tropical cyclone off the west coast of Mexico could be pulled northward into the southern and central plains next weekend. That being said, there are still a number a details that still need to be ironed out between now and then. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24hrs with surface high pressure pushing across the area. North winds will diminish tonight then switch around to the south as surface high pressure shifts east of the area on Saturday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-082. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-083-091>095-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...CDJ  498 FXUS64 KCRP 162325 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 625 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gale Warning remains in effect through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - High Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has made its way into the South Texas region this morning, with strong winds coming out of the north from behind the front. Gust's today are expected to be up around 25-35 knots, with some areas possibly getting up to 40 knots closer offshore. A wind advisory remains in effect through this morning and into this afternoon. Those high winds won't be too much of a concern as they will begin to die down tomorrow afternoon, allowing for a beautiful weekend with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. Tomorrow morning will be significantly cooler than normal due to the front with highs in the low 70's across the South Texas region. Expect lows to dip into the mid to high 50's tonight and even Saturday night as well. Unfortunately, these cool conditions won't last for too long as we can see temperatures increasing starting early next week with temperatures reaching into the high 80's and low 90's over the CWA. Most of the rain chances with this frontal passage will remain offshore with a slight chance of showers early this afternoon but will ultimately clear up as relatively dry air filters in from the front. Humidity will be low in most areas across the South Texas region, especially in the evenings this weekend for the Brush Country. Coastal flooding will also be a concern from the strong northerly winds with swell periods ranging from 7 to 8 seconds. A coastal flood advisory will remain in effect through Sunday morning, with the biggest concern being during high tide. Rip current risk will && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. CIGs are around 10kft-15kft and should go scattered by Saturday afternoon. Strong gusty northerly winds will persist through the evening with gusts 25-30 knots. Winds will gradually decrease overnight into Saturday morning, with north winds around 10 knots expected by Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to Gale (BF 8) are expected to continue through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday evening. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday night. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front earlier this morning has brought strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for theBrush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 57 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 53 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 55 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 55 73 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 59 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 53 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 55 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 61 74 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...TE/81  484 FXUS65 KCYS 162325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prone area, Arlington and Bordeaux. Wind gusts of 55 to 65 MPH are possible. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cloudless, clear day continue across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and 50s and will stay here for the remainder of the day. Overnight lows are not anticipated to be as cold as Thursday night. This is due to the flattening of the ridge aloft turning winds more westerly. The downslope component of the wind will keep overnight lows from tanking like they did Thursday night. Winds will strengthen early Saturday morning as MSLP gradients steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. A surface trough in lee of the Laramie Range and a surface high over western Colorado will cause the tightening gradients. CAG to CPR 850 mb height gradients will also increase, reaching over 50 meters during the day Saturday. This is a good indication of potential high winds in the Arlington area. MSLP gradients across the area seem sufficiently strong enough to get high winds at Bordeaux as well. In-house guidance suggests a 40 percent chance of high winds occurring at Bordeaux during the day Saturday. As a result, went a head and upgraded the High Wind Watches for these zones to Warnings. High Wind Warnings are in effect from 6 AM to 7 PM Saturday. Given that these is minimal upper-level support for this event, high winds will likely be marginal, with the strongest wind gusts in the 55 to 65 MPH range. Winds are also likely to stay elevated overnight as gradients weaken slowly. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. Looking at another warm and dry day on Sunday. Although still above average, temperatures will be cooler by about 5 to 10 degrees compared to Saturday. This is a result from the flattening ridge sending a cool front into the forecast area. Luckily, still looking at a mostly sunny day, making for a pleasant end to the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly benign conditions to start the work week in the long term, but this pattern should begin to be broken up by a deep Pacific system that will encroach our region by the end of the forecast period. Monday starts with high pressure ridging mostly holding control of our forecast area, but a weakening upper level low will move across the Four Corners region and then just to our southeast through Tuesday afternoon. While mostly non- impactful, this feature will at least bring a very low end chance of some high elevation precipitation, along with a small bump in moisture. This influx of moisture will continue through the rest of the week as our upper level flow turns southwesterly while we sit between high pressure controlling the southeastern US and a deep Pacific system that will move inland by later Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will be the next noteworthy system to impact the forecast area as we see precipitation begin overspreading late Thursday into Friday and start another cooling trend that should persist into the weekend. For this forecast period, expect mostly similar temperatures day to day as highs will be around 6 to 12 degrees above normal, generally in the 60's to 70's, with lows similarly warm in the 40's. Any drop in temperatures would occur just beyond the long term after the Pacific system moves in, and the most impactful precipitation chances similarly just beyond this forecast time as well. Overall it should be a quiet period, but that will be ending by the weekend after next. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. In general, winds will pose no concerns as the prevailing speeds will be near 10 knots or less for all sites for this forecast period, except KRWL. At KRWL, winds will ramp up Saturday morning with southwesterly gusts between 20 and 30 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ106- 110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  439 FXUS66 KMTR 162324 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 424 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values. Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by early afternoon. Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s (attributing to the low relative humidities). For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week, resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than 15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming days. What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms." && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 418 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High conf for VFR through the period with lingering offshore flow and dry air in the lower levels. Onshore returns tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Onshore this evening then shifting NE overnight. Onshore returns tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Diurnal wind patternswith VFR conditions. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 418 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure over Eastern Pacific and a trough of low pressure along the California Coast will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes through Friday night. A cold front will sweep through increasing winds to become strong across the northern outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become rough across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain is expected Monday into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. KR && .BEACHES... Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds) southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf with strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 AM PDT Saturday through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  554 FXUS63 KGID 162326 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning is in effect Tonight/Saturday Morning from 1-9AM as overnight lows are expected to dip below freezing for the first time this season (to as low as 26-32 degrees). - The locations that will have the overall coldest temperatures tonight as well as be the first to reach freezing tonight will be for areas concentrated towards the north and west portions of the area. - The forecast through Wednesday remains precip-free with the next faint signal for precipitation coming Thursday (30-40% chance). - Highs SAT-MON will mainly range the 60s with a warmup back into the 70s favored to take shape after Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today (Friday) & Tomorrow (Saturday)... A passing upper-level trough today (Friday) will soon bring height/pressure rises to the area with a ridge expected to follow in behind from the west. This feature will lead to regional subsidence that will both clear out skies and suppress any chance for precipitation through the weekend and for the first half of next week. At the surface, a massive near 1045 hPa high pressure center will continue to build in from off the High Plains/Rockies. As the surface pressure continues to rise today, winds speeds out of the north should only continue to slow down through the afternoon/night tonight. Light to calm winds (speeds <10MPH) could return as early as this evening. As this high pressure center passes through the area tonight, the light surface winds will swap to a south to southwesterly orientation ahead of Saturday. The main story tonight, however, will be for sub-freezing temperatures as lows settle in the upper 20s to low 30s across the entire region. As this will become the areas first freeze of the season, a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 1AM to 9AM tonight/Saturday morning. Though the warning does not go into effect until 1AM tonight, a few areas northwest of the Tri-Cities could possibly see temperatures drop quickly into the mid to low 30s shortly after sunset (common underneath light winds and clear skies). This freeze should only remain a one night issue as the southerly returning surface winds for Saturday (10-20 mph gusting as high as 30-35 mph in the afternoon) should bump up temperatures around 10 degrees higher than today. Highs for Saturday will look to range the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Next Week... Considerable confidence from the LREF members regarding the upper- level pattern next week lead us to conclude that this ridging pattern will continue on into the first half of next week. This feature will allow temperatures to retain in the 60s through Monday with a more notable warmup possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The long- range models continue to also keep the surface winds out of the south with little day-to-day change of surface broad high pressure to the east and broad low pressure to the west (channeling in the southerly warm air advection pattern). The next chance of precipitation does not come in the forecast until Thursday as the next upper-level trough/wave looks possible to slide in next. Though model guidance begins to wane in regards to the timing/intensity of the trough, at least some chance of precipitation looks to be plausible as this next disturbance approaches near the middle-to-end of next week. Details will continue to be refined as this event becomes closer into range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions with clear skies are expected through the TAF period.Winds will briefly become variable this evening between 02z - 06z as a shift from northerly to south-southwesterly flow takes place. During the day on Saturday, winds will be predominantly from the SSW at 10 - 15 kts, gusting up to 25 kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Began  527 FXUS65 KPIH 162326 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 526 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A beautiful fall weekend is in store for East Idaho as daytime temperatures inch slightly warmer under the influence of high pressure. By Sunday, afternoon highs will reach the 60s across most lower elevations, ranging from right around 60 degrees in the northern portions of the Snake Plain to near 70 degrees across the Eastern Magic Valley and Raft River regions. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 30s for most . Early next week, the upper-level pattern begins to shift as a strong low pressure system tracks south along the West Coast. Although deterministic guidance like the GFS shows the low swinging further offshore before dropping into the Desert Southwest in a split-flow setup, ensemble means still track the center close enough to the coast to maintain light precipitation chances across our area through the day Tuesday. Main moisture transport increases by mid-to-late week, with precipitation chances ramping up Wednesday night through Friday. Considerable forecast uncertainty remains late in the week regarding total precipitation amounts and timing. Ensemble clusters continue to differ on the depth and structural evolution of the southern closed low as it begins to open up and eject eastward. While the National Blend of Models (NBM) reflects a downward trend in QPF amounts heading into mid-week, widespread precipitation chances remain 30% to 45% through Wednesday, increasing to 50% to 70% Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies expected through Saturday afternoon. Will have upvalley winds increase to 10 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...AMM  591 FXUS65 KTFX 162327 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 527 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions tomorrow along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, with gusts up to 85 mph possible. - Slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, followed by seasonably average temperatures through the middle of next week. - Cooler temperatures and increased chances of precipitation late next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridging continues over the region today, bringing mostly sunny skies, dry conditions and above average temperatures. As this afternoon progresses, the ridge will begin to flatten, increasing the pressure gradient and creating windy conditions, mostly confined to the Rocky Mountain Front. The ridge continues to flatten into Saturday, causing the pressure gradient to tighten even more as convergence aloft increases. This will bring strong upper level winds that, combined with diurnal heating and terrain influences, will mix down to the surface along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. This will bring very windy conditions to the northern Rocky Mountain Front, specifically in the area north of Highway 200 and west of I-15. The gusty winds are expected to dissipate by late Saturday evening as the strongest upper level winds move east and diurnal heating subsides. Zonal flow aloft will build again on Sunday, allowing for slightly cooler temperatures and continuing the stretch of dry weather. By Monday morning, weak ridging takes its place as an upper level trough begins to move down the Pacific Coast towards northern California. This will create southwesterly flow aloft by Monday evening, which will last through the middle of next week, allowing for seasonably average temperatures. By Thursday, the trough will have moved south of the Great Basin, creating a more direct southerly flow aloft, before moving northeast towards Wyoming. This will allow temperatures to warm on Thursday before cooling down on Friday. Increased moisture aloft will get carried north by the upper level southerly low, increasing precipitation chances towards the end of next week into next weekend. There remains shearing and splitting in the trough late Thursday into next weekend, so while one can expect cooling temperatures and increased precipitation chances late in the forecast period, confidence in the forecast specifics for this time remains low. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Confidence has increased on stronger winds impacting the northern Rocky Mountain Front Saturday. Models are in good agreement on an increase in the 700 mb winds, now showing around 75-80 kts, and vertical cross sections show these strong winds mixing down to the surface from late Saturday morning to late Saturday night due to diurnal heating and turbulent mixing from the terrain of the Rocky Mountains. As a result, there is also more model agreement on the wind gusts at the surface, with the spread of 10th percentile and 90th percentile wind gusts only being about a 10 mph difference. Due to the stronger 700 mb winds and increased confidence in their timing and location, the High Wind Watch (along the northern Rocky Mountain Front) has now been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, with gusts up to 85 mph possible. Confidence was lower on these stronger 700 mb winds mixing to the surface along the rest of the Hi-Line. Soundings showed a low level inversion across the Hi-Line, which would inhibit mixing. This is supported by the vertical cross sections showing the stronger winds aloft not mixing down to the surface. While windy conditions will still be present across the Hi-Line tomorrow, thelower confidence in the strongest winds being mixed down to the surface resulted in the High Wind Watch not being extended across the Hi-Line. -Dzomba && .AVIATION... 17/00Z TAF Period VRF Conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds will continue across Central and North Central Montana through the night, tapering slightly, before increasing again on the day Saturday. High winds are expected across the Hi-Line tomorrow, with KCTB being of greatest concern with gusts 45-50kts likely, with the potential for gusts to exceed 55kts. Terminals KHVR and KGTF will also experience gusty winds with gusts 30-40kts, mixing will limit higher end gusts but there is a low (20%) chance of gusts over 50kt at both terminals. Mountain wave turbulence will also be of concern across the divide as wind pick up Saturday evening. Winds will persist beyond the end of the TAF period. -JR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 67 46 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 66 44 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 61 33 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 59 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 56 21 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 58 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 67 41 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 68 45 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  639 FXUS61 KBUF 162329 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for counties where the growing season remains from late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will continue to advance east across the Great Lakes through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A strong cold front crossing the region will exit by mid afternoon. The better moisture and dynamics will be out ahead of the front, but a strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain and showers to continue this afternoon and evening in wake of the cold front. The strongest winds have already occurred across the area, but westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing further this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. A freeze watch has been issued for counties where the growing season remains. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds into Western and Central NY from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend NW'erly to N'erly around 5 to 15 knots through ~20Z/Sat and gust up to ~20 knots at times through ~13Z/Sat. After ~20Z/Sat, our regional surface winds should become light and variable as the MSLP gradient relaxes significantly in response to the building ridge. Widespread ceilings in the 1kft to 3kft AGL range should persist through late Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, isolated to scattered stratocumuli with bases near 3kft to 4kft AGL are forecast through 00Z/Sun. Widespread light rain with mainly VFR visibility, associated with the upper-reaches of a departing cold front, continues to exit our region generally from west to east through ~04Z/Sat. Behind the widespread rain, light to moderate lake-effect rain showers are expected over and generally SE or SSE of the eastern Great Lakes this evening into Saturday morning. During the same time period, NW'erly to NNW'erly upslope flow-induced rain showers are possible along the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. These lake-effect and upslope flow-induced rain showers may mix with or change to wet snow at times between ~07Z/Sat and ~13Z/Sat, and should result in periodic MVFR to perhaps IFR visibility. All of this precip should end from west to east between ~12Z/Sat and ~15Z/Sat due, in part to drier air that will overspread our region from the NNW. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR visibility are expected through 00Z/Sun. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...Dry weather and VFR are likely. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Elevated west and northwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue on both lakes through Saturday morning, before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...TMA  597 FXUS61 KPBZ 162327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thunderstorm threat has ended for today. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop to/below 32F. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and gusty wind through tonight 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of this afternoon's pre-frontal trough passage, expect light showers and gusty wind with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Wind gusts should hold in the 25-35 mph range in the lowlands and possibly up to 40 mph in the ridges. The probability for advisory criteria >46 mph remains low. A deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Overall coverage of showers should decrease into the overnight hours, though some scattered lake enhanced showers are possible within the cold advection regime. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. With that said, there is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, but ground temperatures will be too warm for any flakes to stick. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light rain showers/drizzle with VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue this evening, with a reinforcing cold front forcing a northerly wind shift over the next several hours. This will also result in a second wave of rain with more widespread MVFR cig/vsby potential and low probability for IFR cigs. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin overnight following the secondary cold frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Building high pressure and ridging should lift/breakup residual MVFR stratocu by 14z Sat, with clear skies likely by late afternoon. Outlook... There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/Lupo AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier  637 FXUS63 KDLH 162329 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday, but lesser confidence than over the last few days. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze tonight, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite and radar imagery show quickly decrease coverage of light and widely scattered rain showers over north-cental Wisconsin this afternoon. For the rest of the day, northerly winds will quickly decrease from west to east as high pressure moves overhead tonight under a passing mid-level ridge. Expect a wind shift to the southwest overnight, with winds actually increasing in speed as a southwesterly low-level jet builds over northern Minnesota early Saturday morning. This setup creates the lowest temperatures tonight in north-central Minnesota shortly after midnight, then stabilizing or actually increasing towards the dawn hours Saturday morning. Meanwhile, calm winds under strong radiational cooling for northwest Wisconsin will allow temperatures to continue to drop out into the mid to upper 20s tonight. Expect a hard freeze tonight, but the Duluth office has ended the frost and freeze headlines for the season given earlier widespread freeze conditions, so no headlines are in effect for this hard freeze. Saturday will feature breezy southwest winds as drier air mixes down to the surface. The forecast continues to resemble about a 20 to 30th percentile of guidance for relative humidity tomorrow, which puts minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent in the forecast. These values are just above near-critical conditions and have actually trended upwards in recent forecasts, so no Special Weather Statements are in effect covering Saturday. However, folks should still be aware of an elevated fire weather risk Saturday mid-day to early evening due to the combination of this semi-dry air and breezy winds. The pattern shifts to feature no precipitation and warming Sunday onward. Continued breezy southwest winds Sunday morning areawide will decrease in speed from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. High temperatures will continue their upward climb, and we will be back into the mid 60s for the next work week with predominantly dry weather dominating the Northland. The exception will be a couple of days of lake breezes keeping shoreline areas right at normal for mid-October. Heading deeper into the next work week, the predominantly quiet and unseasonably mild weather remains locked in as an upper- level ridge anchors itself over the central portion of the Continent and two coastal low pressure systems remain over the Mid-Atlantic and California/Baja region. There are very low- end, 10 to 20 percent, chances of light rain late next work week as a ripple moving through the broad and warm upper- level ridge may occur. However, there is very low confidence on this scenario at this time, and dry conditions remain heavily favored. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions under mainly clear skies are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be light overnight with a southwesterly low level jet moving in before sunrise bringing a period of low level wind shear. After sunrise, these winds will mix to the surface with breezy conditions with gusts to 15 to 25 knots through much of the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are expected for small crafts from now through Sunday afternoon, the exception being a possible short winds tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening as gusts near 30 knots and elevated waves continue. Winds will subside briefly tonight before shifting to the southwest and increasing across Western Lake Superior again early Saturday morning. A few hour period of low- end Gale-force winds are possible off the Bayfield Peninsula so this will be monitored for any localized and short-duration Gale Warning needs Saturday morning....otherwise Small Craft Advisories are expected to be needed in time for Saturday. There is higher confidence on even stronger and more widespread southwest gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, very likely also necessitating additional Small Craft Advisories or Gale Warnings. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds weaken this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Lower Midwest takes hold into the Upper Midwest. Drier air mixing down on Saturday will bring minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent. When combined with breezy southwest winds gusting to 22 to 28 mph, an elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday mid-day into early evening. Minimum relative humidity recovers slightly to the 35 to 45 percent range on Sunday while gusty southwest winds continue. No rain chances and warming temperatures are expected to persist well into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...BJH MARINE...NLy FIRE WEATHER...NLy  648 FXUS63 KMQT 162329 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry air and windy conditions could increase fire weather concerns this weekend. - Gales are possible over western Lake Superior on Saturday and again on Sunday. - Expect dry weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As CAA ceases this evening with high pressure ridging and drier air moving in, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to end over the eastern U.P. tonight. While there could be a changeover to snow at times over the north central and east the rest of this afternoon and evening as temperatures continue to gradually cool (melting layer is practically now at the sfc), no accumulations are expected given the warm ground and (mostly) above freezing temperatures expected across the area the rest of today through tonight. Expect the remaining liquid to be received across the north wind belts today through this evening to be less than a tenth of an inch. Drier weather returns this weekend and looks to stay in place across Upper MI through at least early next week. With drier air being advected in from the Southern Plains, we could see elevated fire weather concerns back across the area this weekend as gusty southwest winds in association with a LLJ return to the area and RHs potentially drop into the 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall and cooler temperatures expected (particularly on Saturday where highs are only projected to get into the 50s), this risk is expected to be fairly mitigated. That being said, with the ongoing drought concerns still to deal with as well as fallen leaves at the sfc, elevated fire weather concerns could be realized by Sunday across the west half of Upper Michigan. From Monday onwards next week, fairly quiet weather is expected across the area. While we may have a cold front skirt us and bring some rain showers overhead around Wednesday/Thursday, with more high pressure ridging building into the central CONUS by the end of next week, we may remain dry for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 728 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the 0Z TAF period as high pressure passes over the region and lingering lake effect clouds shift east. This leaves wind speed and direction as the primary impacts during the period. The pressure gradient continues to slacken this evening, allowing for winds to keep weakening, becoming southwest for Saturday as they once again increase. Saturday will not be quite as breezy as today with winds around 15 kts, gusting to 20 kts at SAW, 20-25 kts at IWD and 20-30 kts at CMX by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Lake Superior: North gales up to 40 to potentially 45 kts over the eastern lake this afternoon give way to light winds of 20 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the light winds to stay for long, however, as the pressure gradient over the western lake tightens and a LLJ approaches the area. With the help of some funneling along the Bayfield and Keweenaw Peninsulas, a narrow band of gales up to 35 kts could return to western Lake Superior on Saturday (up to a 60% chance according to the REFS). However, after collaborating with NWS DLH, given the uncertainty on the strength of the mixing in the boundary layer, we decided to hold off on issuing a Gale Watch/Warning for Saturday at this time. That being said, a short- fused Gale Warning may be issued for the western lake later tonight or even on Saturday should confidence in the gales increase. A much higher chance of southwest gales occurring over the western half of the lake arrives Saturday night into Sunday; the latest REFS has low- end gale chances at nearly 100% then. However, as high pressure ridging strengthens over the region early next week, expect the winds to fall back down to 20 kts or less by early Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northerly gales up to 35 kts this afternoon weaken to 15 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the lighter winds to last all that long though as a tightening pressure gradient and incoming LLJ bring southwest winds of 25 to 30 kts back across the area on Saturday. The winds may even intensify a few knots Saturday night into Sunday, and gales up to 35 kts could be seen by Sunday morning (up to a 90% chance according to the latest REFS). However, with high pressure ridging building over the Upper Great Lakes early next week, expect the winds to die down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248>250-265- 266. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...77 MARINE...TAP  665 FXUS65 KPSR 162329 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 429 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories continue across portions of the region through Saturday morning with gusts occasionally over 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing dust and difficult travel for high profile vehicles. - A slight chance of light rain will arrive into parts of south- central Arizona over the weekend with the better chances focused over higher terrain locations. - A Pacific low pressure system moving into the Southwest during the middle of next week will lead to much better rainfall chances with the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms, as well as cooler temperatures && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... As full latitudinal troughing deepens over the eastern Conus, a mature high amplitude Rex block remains established over the western half of the country. This pattern continues to promote strong sfc high pressure over the central Rockies/high plains, and combined with inverted low pressure emanating from the Gulf of California, an intense pressure gradient has developed across the CWA. An H9-H8 30- 50kt easterly LLJ has weakened early this afternoon as the thermal enhancement has deteriorated, but lingering gusty winds and lofted dust will continue to impacts many areas through the overnight. While lower elevations will experience partial decoupling and much weaker winds after sunset, ridge tops and the typical wind prone areas will likely continue to record gusty winds pushing advisory criteria through the overnight. The combined effect of a significantly loosened pressure gradient and thicker clouds compromising mechanical mixing will preclude advisory criteria beyond Saturday morning. The aforementioned Rex block will slowly open this weekend with the negative height anomaly propagating from southern California into northern Arizona. This places south-central Arizona within a very favorable left front jet quadrant with a weak cold core skirting the forecast area indicative of periods of robust ascent. The underlying southwest flow will also concurrently import thick moisture through the H7-H5 layer such that total column PWATs reach 1" by Saturday afternoon. While these parameters would generally support widespread light rain, a very dry sub-cloud layer resulting from the persistent downsloping easterly winds will battle the ability for precipitation reaching the ground. Nevertheless, given the ascent structure and magnitude of midlevel moisture, some light showers should reach the surface Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with the best chances over higher terrain areas east of Phoenix where sfc to cloud base depths are minimized. Otherwise, partial clearing will slowly advance through the forecast area Sunday with moisture and ascent lifting into northern Arizona. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... The ridge comprising the northern portion of the Rex block will push eastward early next week as the upper low weakens into an open wave and becomes absorbed into the mean southwest flow. Lingering light showers may continue to affect orographically favored areas of the eastern CWA Monday aided by the next piece of subtropical jet energy rounding towards the Southwest from the eastern Pacific. If activity does develop, total accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal. By Tuesday, deep troughing and strong negative height anomalies will amplify and intensify along the west coast, however confidence is exact the timing and depth of this feature remains low to moderate. As a result, notable forecast temperature spread exists during the middle of next week, in addition to uncertainty in rainfall timing and amounts.At this time, the preponderance of model evidence points towards Wednesday and Thursday as the most likely to experience showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the trough passage and the introduction of much cooler, below normal autumnal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Gusty E'rly winds and reductions to slantwise visibility will continue to be the main aviation concerns through Saturday afternoon. Gusts 25-30 kt, with sporadic higher gusts, will persist until after sunset before decreasing slightly overnight. However, breeziness will will not cease completely, though it should be less frequent compared to the daylight hours. Instances of little to no gusts at the surface could create localized LLWS impacts due to continued enhanced flow aloft. More persistent breeziness will reemerge late Saturday morning before a more noticeable downtrend in speeds takes place late in the forecast window. Mostly clear skies this evening will give way to considerable cloud cover overnight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Outside of some marginal breeziness at KBLH, operational impacts should be minimal over the next 24 hours. Flow at KIPL will switch between NE and NW, while KBLH will experience a persistent NE component through Saturday afternoon. FEW mid-level cloud decks this evening will give way to more considerable cloud cover tonight. It is not out of the question that an isolated VCSH is seen over the region this evening, but chances are currently less than 10% so any mention of rain has been excluded from the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong east winds will continue through Saturday across southern Arizona with the most pronounced gusts over mountain tops of eastern districts during the overnight and early morning hours. Gusts 40-45 mph may be common over these locations with a portion of these winds building into lower elevations by late morning. Speeds will slowly decrease through the day with even weaker winds Sunday through the middle of next week. Light showers are possible this weekend, and particularly over eastern districts, but the chance for wetting rain is low (~10%). The strong east winds will result in minimum humidity levels 20-30% Saturday, but increasing closer to a 30-50% range thereafter. Overnight recovery should be good to excellent. A Pacific weather disturbance will bring increased chances of wetting rainfall, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures during the latter half of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18/Ryan AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...18/Ryan  683 FXUS61 KBTV 162329 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... The wind advisory has been cancelled. Winds will remain gusty tonight and on Saturday but will remain below advisory threshold. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... 1. Gusty winds to continue through Saturday with much cooler temperatures on the way. First round of snowfall expected for the high peaks tonight. 2. Next week continues to trend very quiet as high pressure builds in across the area with temperatures near normal and high confidence in an extended dry period of weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 221 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: We are currently in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. As of 1 PM, the approaching cold front was located in far western New York and will continue to quickly push east this afternoon and evening. A sharp thermal gradient will allow for temperatures to plummet quickly in the wake of the cold front with an abrupt wind direction shift from the south to the northwest. With increasing moisture in the warm sector, we should see rain showers continue into the evening ahead of the front but rainfall amounts don't look to be anything impressive at this time. As rainfall taper off in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Our current thinking is that locations above 2000 ft may be able to accumulate up to an inch of snow while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 ft. Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy surfaces as the ground temperature will remain above freezing through the period of possible snow. Saturday will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern as temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s while winds remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will lead to wind chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks. If you plan to be outdoors tomorrow please dress for the weather as this change in weather pattern may be surprising to many! Saturday night will be the coldest night as winds finally abate and skies clear with lows falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees with the warmest values in and around Lake Champlain. A rebound to more seasonal normal temperatures is expected for Sunday with highs warming into the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: A rex block will begin to develop for the Northeast as surface high pressure builds in from the west on Monday with a developing coastal low across the southeast. High pressure will keep any moisture well to our south through the extended period, with high confidence in an extended dry period. That said, some high clouds and cirrus clouds will be possible early next week, especially in southern Vermont. With the extended period of dry weather anticipated, and trees losing leaves, fire weather concerns may increase towards the latter portion of next week as we dry out from this weeks rains early next week. Winds look to be on the weak side with light and terrain driven flow under high pressure, which should be beneficial to lowering fire weather concerns. Temperatures will return to normal levels by early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...A mix of flight conditions currently prevail across the region as a cold front continues to push through the region. MVFR ceilings mostly prevail, although some IFR continues at KSLK and KMPV. In general, MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail for much of the night, with an improvement towards VFR towards 12Z. A few rain showers continue across the region, although they are expected to diminish and become more scattered, with PROB30 groups utilized and the potential for some snow to mix in at mountain sites which may impact visibilities. Winds will continue to become more west to northwesterly over the next few hours, although they will remain breezy through much of the forecast period, with wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible, especially at KBTV/KPBG. Gusts look to diminish towards the very end of the forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Lake Champlain through Saturday afternoon. Although the strongest winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 30 knot winds across the lake through Saturday. Winds are from the south at the moment but will switch to the north after sunset following the passage of a cold front. Winds may briefly weaken below 25 knots as the wind shift occurs but winds are expected to ramp back up during the overnight hours. Wave have subsided to 2 to 4 feet and will likely subside further as the wind shift occurs but waves in the 2 to 4 ft range will likely develop again on Saturday with the persistent northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay DISCUSSION...Danzig/Clay AVIATION...Kremer MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  776 FXUS61 KCAR 162331 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 731 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 730 pm update...Update for 00z aviation discussion. - Confidence increased in temperatures and showers. - Added patchy fog into the forecast for this evening and tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. 2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods. In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early, then becoming MVFR cigs after the rain ends around 02z at all terminals with the exception of FVE which improves by 04z. Improvement to VFR after midnight for Downeast terminals, and between 07-09z Aroostook terminals. Lingering LLWS for another or two at all terminals. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/CN AVIATION...21/ARL/CN  900 FXAK67 PAJK 162332 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 332 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key Messages: - In the short term, on the downward swing with impactful weather as a front weakens over the Coast Range of SE Alaska. Heavy rain and significant wind impacts have diminished. - Brief break in the persistent rain is possible Sunday night into Monday, however another front and round of heavier rain and wind push across the Gulf by Tuesday. - Increasing potential for a more impactful/strong area of low pressure developing over the GulfAK Tuesday through midweek. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... The low in the western Gulf of Alaska continues to shift northeastward and weaken, bringing a few more showery waves of precipitation into the panhandle. Most of these showers will be light compared to the heavy rainfall seen yesterday, however some areas along the outer coast and southern panhandle near Misty Fjords may see some more isolated thunderstorms pop up through the evening and into Saturday. The southern panhandle may see a brief break tonight in the showers, with much of the next rounds moving into the central and northern panhandle overnight into tomorrow morning, however precipitation chances will return across the south as well by tomorrow. Some patchy fog may develop over parts of the southern panhandle if there is enough of a break period between the showers, however there is not much confidence at this time. Showers and onshore flow will continue into Sunday as the low diminishes in the northern Gulf, however the precipitation chances will gradually decrease throughout the day Sunday. .LONGER TERM...NEXT WEEK... With the first fall storm system now having moved through SEAK, our eyes start turning to the next significant weather system. Ensembles and deterministic model guidance over the past few runs have been in fair agreement with deepening a rather impactful/strong area of low pressure (potentially as low as 960 mb) over the northwestern GulfAK Tuesday, with a rather large/extensive area of storm force winds (48-55 kts) and seas in excess of 20 ft extending well east of that low center into the eastern GulfAK and along the outer coast from Cape Spencer northward. This is something maritime interests will have to closely monitor as we go into early next week, and especially for those transiting the GulfAK. See marine discussion below. As for impacts to SEAK specifically, the front extending east of that low will push across SEAK Tuesday through midweek, bringing another round of potentially heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to the outer coastal areas. Stay tuned as we go through the weekend on further developments with this Gulf storm system. 05/Garmon && .AVIATION...The last location to report Gale Force gusts was Tree Point to the southeast of Ketchikan and south of Misty Fjords at 1 PM. For the remainder of the TAF sites, winds have diminished significantly the past few hours and ceilings are mostly in the VFR to MVFR ranges. We continue with a large area of rain across the central/southern portions of the Panhandle, with a few thunderstorms that developed in the afternoon hours just east of Yakutat (about 20 miles east) and to the east of Ketchikan into Misty Fjords. Chances for impacts to airports from thunderstorms are small, although there are a few isolated cells out there across the southern Panhandle, about 100 miles east of Sitka over the GulfAK. We expect the isolated thunderstorm activity to diminish toward evening, and we expect mostly MVFR to VFR overnight in areas of mostly light rain/ceilings. Question is, how much fog can happen overnight, especially if we clear out behind the front? Right now guidance is not pinging on fog production given light mixingand cloudcover, however some localized fog is not out of the question. 05/Garmon && .MARINE... Outer waters: The low pressure system sitting in the northern gulf is swinging across yet another frontal system, generating 25-30 knot southerlies in the gulf waters through tonight. A shift to the southwest with similar wind speeds is expected during the early morning hours for the coastal zones before diminishing through Saturday night. Wave heights associated with the southwesterlies are expected to build to around 15 ft offshore between Cape Spencer and Cape Edgecombe. May also see some convective cells with some lightning strikes and stronger wind gusts. The low pressure, then vertically stacked, should slowly fill and move southeast, keeping up to 20 knot westerlies for Sunday morning before diminishing. Going into next week (Tuesday/Wednesday), a potent low moves into the central gulf, as noted in the long term section. Current guidance indicated a barrier jet looks to form along the NE gulf coast, generating storm force winds east of Cape St. Elias. Currently, there is good confidence on the strength of the system; however, confidence on timing and placement is moderate to low. There is evidence in ensembles that new low centers will generate along the negatively tilted shortwave aloft, which would move around the low. These types of scenarios would shift highest wind speeds much further down the coast, to around Cape Spencer at the furthest with current guidance. For waveheights, very strong southwesterly swell upwards of 22 ft will contribute to wave heights exceeding 25 ft in the gulf waters. Stay tuned for more information regarding this system. Inside Waters: Leading into the front, building high pressure in the southern panhandle in wake of the stronger front that moved through the southern portion of Clarence Strait may decouple winds. This combined with clearing skies and abundant moisture from recent showers may generate some fog overnight tonight ahead of the incoming front. The front from the aforementioned low pressure in the central gulf is expected to bring up southeast winds early Saturday morning to around 20-25 knots. Highest wind speeds, and associated small craft advisories, look to be for Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage. Definitely possibly to see an upgrade to 25 knot winds for northern Chatham Strait, but did not have the confidence for this forecast package. && .HYDROLOGY...With the end of the larger atmospheric river system this morning, flooding concerns are no longer expected, even as some showers continue into the weekend. Rivers and creeks may still be at their crest into this evening, but overall most streams have crested by the morning / afternoon and all are expected to continue to fall into tonight and the weekend. Any showers that continue this weekend will be largely light, and even if some more productive cells bring periods of higher rainfall amounts, they will be quick moving and not persistent, with longer breaks between even the more organized bands of showers. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...Garmon AVIATION...Garmon MARINE...Compton HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  942 FXUS61 KRLX 162333 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation discussion. As of 431 PM... Expanded Freeze Watch into the balance of our counties. As of 138 PM... A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds today, followed by colder temperatures and continued breezes tonight. 2) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning. 3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low-pressure system traveling northeast along the Canada/New England border will continue to drag a cold front across the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today. Mainly rain and gusty winds have been accompanying the frontal passage, though some thunderstorms could also develop this afternoon. While the severe potential for today is low, a stronger gust or two could be possible with storms this afternoon. Additionally, given wet ground from previous rain, even sub-severe wind gusts may down trees. Cold air advection will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, and is anticipated to sustain breezy conditions into Saturday. Precipitation starts tapering off from west to east once the axis of an upper trough passes overhead tonight. In the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, rain may transition to a wintry mix before precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry air advecting into the region during the day on Saturday should yield widespread dew point values below 32F Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While some modest flow with cold advection may continue on the south side of the high heading into early Sunday morning, think at least valleys in the Metro Valley and southern coalfields will decouple sufficiently to radiate out to the freezing mark for a few hours heading into daybreak. Have expanded the Freeze Watch to cover the balance of our counties for Sunday morning. If coverage of freezing temperatures is insufficient to close the growing season, additional frost/freeze highlights are possible for Monday morning. As of 138 PM... High pressure and drier air build in from the west on Saturday, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering over the northeast mountains. Breezy conditions are expected to gradually relax throughout the day, then calm and clear conditions set in for Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the day, then overnight lows dive down into the mid 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the mountains, northern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and southeast Ohio, where there is highest confidence in below freezing temperatures developing late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories are likely to be needed for the remainder of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure is expected to sustain drier weather from Sunday through at least the middle of next week while a low spirals off of the Virginia/Carolina coast. Although temperatures will trend warmer during this time, one more frosty morning could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The surface cold front has cleared southeast of all terminals, but an upper-level trough crossing the area will sustain lingering light rain showers and mist through much of the overnight hours. Flight categories will be predominantly MVFR across lowland terminals where ceilings will generally range between 1000 and 2500 ft AGL. Steadier showers couldbriefly reduce visibility to 3 SM a times, but generally expect limited impacts. Across the higher terrain, persistent northwesterly upslope flow will keep IFR ceilings below 1000 ft locked in at KBKW. Surface winds will remain northwesterly to northerly at 8 to 12KTs with occasional higher gusts, especially just after daybreak Saturday as better mixing overlaps with stronger flow aloft prior to gradients weakening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lowland terminals could briefly drop below 1000 ft AGL into IFR ceilings overnight. At KBKW, ceilings could lift into low MVFR earlier than forecast Saturday morning if low-level flow veers slightly more northerly, decreasing the upslope component. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/20 AVIATION...JP  978 FXUS64 KLCH 162334 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 634 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas through 1 AM late tonight in the wake of a cold front. Other areas will still see elevated fire danger. - A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas for Saturday. - High winds through Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon. - Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis depict a strong upper-level trough digging through the eastern US. An associated surface cold front continues to push southeastward across our areas, ushering in a much drier continental airmass. As of this writing, the front is currently pushing eastward through Vermilion, Lafayette, and St Martin parishes. Temperatures ahead of the front are generally in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints around 70, while areas behind the front see cloudier skies with temps falling to the 70s. There is enough moisture for a few isolated showers along the front, but little if any appreciable rain is expected. Behind the front, northerly winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens with surface high pressure building into the southern Plains. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across the area with a few gusts up to 25-30 mph. The greatest wind speeds are expected closer to the coast and adjacent to the Atchafalaya Basin, and a wind advisory remains in effect for these areas through Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall into the 50s across the area, with a few spots in inland SE Texas and central LA perhaps even dropping into the 40s for the first time this season. Breezy conditions continue into Saturday morning. Winds should generally be on a downward trend heading into the afternoon and evening, but will remain elevated through the daytime hours. Confidence is not high enough to extend wind advisories further into the afternoon at this time, but this potential will be monitored for future forecast cycles. Otherwise, clear skies are expected with afternoon highs only reaching the low 70s across the CWA, which will make for our first true taste of fall across our area this year. Overnight lows Saturday night will be even cooler with continued cold air advection and ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s along the coast and dip well into the 40s across most inland areas. For Sunday through the remainder of the week, a strong upper-level ridge will begin to build over the central CONUS, while surface high pressure anchors itself over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will result in a gradual warming trend, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s by midweek. Light easterly to northeasterly flow will keep any Gulf moisture away from our areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and PWAT in the 0.4 to 0.6 inch range (below 25th percentile relative to climatology). As a result, the chance of rain through next week is essentially zero, with no substantial weather systems to speak of through the end of the forecast period. 64/Silas && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A robust cold front is propagating offshore this evening with gusts ranging 20-30kts across most terminals. Some BKN low levelclouds across Acadiana terminals expected to dissipate soon. Gusts may ease slightly overnight before resuming this range through Saturday afternoon. Pressure gradient forecast to relax Saturday night however winds will still have moderate breezes out of the north. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Offshore winds will strengthen heading into this evening as a cold front sweeps across the waters from northwest to southeast. The greatest winds are expected over the offshore Gulf waters, where sustained winds of 25-35 kt and gusts up to 40 kt will be possible along with seas up to 7-11 ft. A Gale Warning is in effect for these areas for tonight through Saturday morning as a result, with a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal lakes and bays where wind speeds will not be as strong. While winds decrease from these more hazardous levels Saturday afternoon and evening, they will remain elevated through Sunday morning, especially over the offshore Gulf waters. Small craft advisories have been issued through Sunday morning and may need to be extended later into Sunday, particularly for our eastern marine zones. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is crossing Louisiana early this afternoon, with just a few light showers popping up along it in the Acadiana region. As northerly winds ramp up in the wake of the front, they will bring in much drier air, which will combine with dry fuels from ongoing drought to create a period of high fire danger. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for inland portions of central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, where afternoon RH will drop as low as 30-35 percent with north winds of 15-25 mph. This threat may persist later into the evening than typical as humidities will be slow to recover overnight. Saturday will likely be a more widespread fire weather concern across our area, with even drier air continuing to advect in from the north as breezy north winds continue. A red flag warning has been issued for the entire CWA, with afternoon minimum RH dropping into the 30-35 percent range area-wide. The area of greatest concern Saturday will likely be areas along and south of I-10 and east of I- 49, where the highest wind speeds are expected to occur. The threat will diminish Saturday evening as winds decrease. Winds decrease closer to the 5-10 kt range for Sunday heading into next week, but dry conditions continue with afternoon MinRH likely in the 25-35 percent range each day. Chances for rain will be near zero through next week as drought persists across the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472- 475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64 AVIATION...30  053 FXUS61 KOKX 162337 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 737 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening preceded by a line of showers and a isolated thunderstorms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled in coordination with SPC. Thunderstorms have weakened over the last hour, with a notable decrease in lightning activity. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible, but scattered severe thunderstorms does not look to pose a threat any longer. The cold front is about halfway through the forecast area. The line of showers with an isolated thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front will continue moving east through eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The line will likely continue to weaken due to decreasing instability. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of post-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...JP MARINE...DW  034 FXUS62 KFFC 162336 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 736 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A Wind Advisory is in effect through noon Saturday for portions of north and northeast Georgia. Gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. - The first near-freezing temperatures (<35F) of the season are possible for the terrain of northeast Georgia Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A broad, strong cold front situated along the leading edge of a digging mid-level trough is progged to sweep across the state this afternoon through tomorrow morning. At the time of writing of this AFD, temperatures in northwest Georgia are in the low-to-mid 80s, and 3 counties to the northwest -- just across the GA/TN border in Bedford County, TN -- temperatures are in the upper 50s (!). Patchy light showers and drizzle have developed within the cloud shield on the backside of the front, and low-end (15-25%) chances for an isolated shower will filter across portions of north Georgia this afternoon. Most will remain dry. A stout surface pressure gradient will develop in response to the enhanced forcing, supporting the development of breezy conditions areawide. Widespread gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are possible, with a Wind Advisory in effect for portions of north and northeast Georgia to highlight increased chances for gusts up to 35 to 40 mph from late this afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. An important consideration as winds tick upward: for areas that experienced increased tree damage from the glancing blow from Isaias last week, any partially-downed trees or loosened limbs will be more easily dislodged at lower-than-normal wind speeds. Be mindful, and be sure to secure any loose outdoor furniture or holiday decorations. PWATs will plummet post-front (<0.5", sub-25th percentile climatologically), with clear and dry and markedly cooler conditions expected on Saturday. Morning lows will be crisp if not chilly for some, in the 40s to 50s. Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s for portions of northeast Georgia, staying solidly in the 60s to near 70 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Crisp Start to Sunday: A dry and relatively cool airmass will remain across the area on Sunday, courtesy of stout N/NE flow on the backside of a stacked low over the Carolina coast. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be the coolest so far this season, with widespread low to mid 40s. One exception will be across the North GA mountains, which could fall to the mid 30s or even near freezing in the coldest spots. Temperatures will slowly increase throughout the day under sunny skies, but will struggle to climb out of the mid to upper 60s. Between the cooler temperatures and slightly breezy northeast winds (10mph gusting to 20mph), the feeling of Fall will be in full effect. Dry with Gradual Warming Next Week: Guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the forecast for much of next week, with a closed mid-level low parked over the Carolinas. North and Central GA will remain on the dry side of this system, with rain chances near zero. Temperatures will slowly warm each day, but remain right around normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR ceilings with gusty NW winds. There are a few showers out there now but they are dissipating and not expecting them to hit anyof the TAF sites. Winds will continue to increase overnight with speeds getting up into the 14-18kt range and gust to 30kt. These winds will continue through the day Sat then diminish to 10kt or less just after sunset Sat night. We will see some OVC skies overnight but they should stay in the VFR range. Clouds will clear out around sunrise. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 51 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 42 58 33 65 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 47 64 41 67 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 52 70 48 68 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 50 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 53 70 47 66 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 47 64 40 68 / 40 0 0 0 Peachtree City 48 66 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 68 48 64 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for GAZ005>009-012>016-020- 021. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...01  052 FXUS63 KFSD 162337 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly winds will continue to gradually taper down this afternoon from west to east. - High (over 90%) chance of widespread frost tonight to early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory has been issued for central and south- central South Dakota for tonight, with a Freeze Warning elsewhere. - Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow with gusts of 25-35 mph expected, locally higher over the Buffalo Ridge. These breezy winds coupled with drier air could lead to marginally elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoon. - Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The last of the clouds will continue to diminish over northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota over the hour or two, leading to plenty of sunshine across the area! This sunshine should allow most areas to reach the lower 50s for highs, and decreasingly breezy winds will make for a cool, but fairly pleasant fall evening. Winds will be decreasing due to a surface high pressure system moving across the region. These lighter winds coupled with clear skies will mean temperatures will drop rather quickly after the sun sets. By the late night hours though, the high pressure system will quickly slide eastward and allow for the return of southeasterly winds to the area. This should halt the faster cooling and allow for areas especially over south- central South Dakota to remain above freezing, though still remain cold enough for frost. Thus, a frost advisory will be in effect for these areas tonight. Farther east, do think the slight uptick in southeasterly winds will not make it in time to prevent these areas from dropping to 32 degrees or lower. Generally speaking, the farther east you go across the area tonight, the longer it will take for the slightly elevated winds to arrive and thus the colder you'll get. Though there is still some lingering uncertainty on the westward extent of the freezing temperatures, current thoughts are that clear skies, light winds, and dry air during the early overnight will lead to these areas dropping to freezing by daybreak. All that said, frost is expected across the entire area overnight. Southeasterly winds will continue to increase heading into the day tomorrow as the high pressure system slides east and a low pressure system develops off the northern Rockies. Winds won't be as strong as what we've seen this morning and this past night, but expect most areas to see gusts in the 25-35 mph range during the day on Saturday. A few gusts to 45 mph will be possible over the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, but this is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, though trends will be monitor. Another thing to monitor will be locally elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures are expected especially over south-central South Dakota, with highs in the 60s and possibly near 70. This combined with dew points well down into the 30s will lead to relative humidity values just below 30% in south-central South Dakota. Elsewhere, relative humidity values will be around 30-50% Saturday afternoon. This could all result in locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly in cured grasses and cropland. Ridging aloft builds in through the weekend, allowing for a seasonal weather pattern to return that will also continue into early next week. Sunday looks to be the better weekend day for outdoor activities with diminishing winds, sunny skies, and highs in the middle 60s. A weak upper wave will ride into the central Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, though probabilities of measurable rainfall with this system is low (<20%) and focused near and east of I-29 according to latest LREF probabilities. After this weak system passes through, ridging builds back in aloft, and this combined with continued southerly flow will lead to even warmer temperatures by the middle of the week. Highs by Wednesday and Thursday will potentially climb into the 70s across parts of the area. The NBM is a bit more aggressive than other ensembles, though is only warmer by a few degrees comparatively speaking. Either way, forecast temperatures will likely get refined as mid week approaches as more smaller scale details come into better focus. Looking out to the end of next week, the weather pattern may turn a bit more active as guidance indicates a western trough potentially ejecting into the area, though the timing of this is where models really diverge. The broad 20-40% PoPs as highlighted by the NBM next Friday is largely in line with 16.12Z LREF, though details with this system will once again become more clear as we approach the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light northwest winds begin the period but will go light and variable over the next hour or two. However, winds will back to out of the south through the overnight hours and begin to strengthen again. Winds will veer to out of the southwest by Saturday morning and continue to strengthen. Gusts up to 20-35 knots are expected for tomorrow afternoon. The strongest gusts will occur along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota and across south central South Dakota. The breezy southwest winds will finish out the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Meyers  078 FXUS62 KTAE 162338 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 738 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 731 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 40kts for Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No updates to the forecast this evening. The cold front still remains on track to steadily push into the region late this evening and through the overnight hours. By daybreak very breezy north and northwest winds will reside over the region with stronger gusts developing after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As we head into this evening, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the area. Little, if any, precipitation is expected with this frontal passage, with the main concern instead being increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Winds will quickly shift out of the north following this front, with a combination of cold air advection and potentially some daytime mixing helping to bring stronger gusts to the surface on Saturday. Behind the front, we'll finally see some welcome relief from the unseasonably warm temperatures we've experienced over the past week. Daytime highs on Saturday will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Something worth keeping an eye on is the development of a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, although some uncertainty remains regarding its eventual position and the influence it will have on our local weather. While the low itself is not expected to directly impact our area, its position could influence the prevailing low level flow throughout the remainder of this weekend. If it were to stay along the coast we'll see a northeasterly flow that would favor drier air and sunnier skies. If it shifts farther offshore more easterly winds are possible, which will allow for some low level moisture return. This instead favors more cloud cover and maybe even some misty conditions or drizzle. Ultimately how this coastal low evolves will help determine exactly how much more sunshine we'll get to enjoy throughout the next few days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions continue Sunday before relaxing a little as the pressure gradient begins to weaken slightly later Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in many locations Sunday before a warming trend sees afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 70s Monday and mid to upper 70s the rest of next week. Overnight lows will be a bit cool with middle to upper 40s to near 50 to start the week and ending it in the middle to upper 50s. All of this is thanks to an H5 low cutting off over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This spawns a coastal surface low that will meander off the Carolina coastline for a while, helping to keep dry northerly to northeasterly flow over our region. We will monitor the potential for a more easterly component to the surface winds Sunday into the early part of the work week as that could bring back enough low- level moisture to introduce more cloud cover than we currently have in the forecast. If that's the case, forecast highs would be knocked down. But there's not a whole lot of ensemble support for that at this time, but it's worth mentioning and monitoring on our end. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For tonight, a strong cold front plows thru the region and ushers in quick northwesterly wind shift, ramping up to about 15 kts sustained with frequent gusts of 25-30 kts. Timed the onset at each terminal based on the latest trends with ECP/DHN experiencing post-frontal gustiness first (~3Z) and VLD last (~9Z). Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increasing to Gales. A Gale Warning remains in effect starting this evening and lasting through at least early Sunday morning. Portions of our offshore waters may see gale conditions extend through the entire weekend. Winds and seas remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increase surface winds to 15 to 30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values decrease to 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the wake of the front. Recent rains should limit critical fire weather concerns. However, we'll monitor how the fuels respond over the weekend into early next week as the breezy and dry conditions are expected to linger into next work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Several sites remain in Action Stage with most in the process of falling. Additional flooding concerns are not anticipated the next several days as high pressure dominates the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 72 52 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 59 71 54 70 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 54 70 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 56 70 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 72 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 66 74 53 70 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 63 71 56 69 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ007>014-108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  101 FXUS63 KJKL 162339 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 739 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost and freeze conditions area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 420 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 As of mid afternoon, an upper level trough extended into the Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to Arklatex vicinity to the south of an upper low in Canada. Upper ridging was centered east of the eastern seaboard, while another upper level ridge was centered over the western Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving across sections of the St Lawrence Valley with a cold front trailing southeast into the Appalachian region and sections of the Southeast to the western Gulf. This boundary is gradually slipping to the east of the VA border. Further west, an area of high pressure was centered in the Central Conus. Locally, in the lower levels, winds are northwesterly/upslope behind the front, while the upper level winds remain southwest in advance of the approaching 500 mb trough axis. A few showers were occurring near the VA border nearer to the front, with additional upslope showers further northwest across eastern KY, while upstream additional areas of showers preceded the 500 mb trough. Temperatures have fallen behind the front, into the 60s in the southeast and 50s further north and west. This evening through Saturday, the upper level trough axis will move east and across the Commonwealth tonight into Saturday morning. Height rises then follow through Saturday and Saturday night. Sfc high pressure gradually builds east and across the OH Valley region and becomes centered in the mid Atlantic to Northeast. For this evening through tonight, moisture will remain in the low to mid levels, gradually decreasing from the north and northwest to southeast late tonight into early Saturday afternoon near the VA border. Shower chances will continue with the approach and passage of the 500 mb trough with lingering upslope flow in the low levels. The low level flow will gradually become more anticyclonic late tonight to early on Saturday and drier air will gradually filter in from the north, ending chances for showers/ patchy light rain first in the north and west late tonight and then later near the VA border on Saturday morning. Clouds will be slower to decrease through the day on Saturday, though bases will lift as drier air advects in from the north to northeast. However, clear skies and gradually slackening winds are anticipated on Saturday night with the sfc high in place across the area. This will set the stage for the coldest readings so far this Fall and widespread lows down into the 30s are expected. Pending how quickly the drier air advects south either a frost or a freeze are possible. The more northern locations will experience the drier air arriving first and will have the highest chance for getting to the 32 degree mark or lower in a more widespread fashion. For now, a Freeze watch was hoisted in coordination with neighboring offices in this area in the far northwest from 05Z/1 AM on Saturday to 13Z/9 AM on Sunday. At least patchy frost if not areas of frost are anticipated for most locations. This continues to be highlighted in the HWO and social media posts. Additional Frost or Freeze headlines are likely to be needed further south as confidence increases. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas. The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots. In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A strong upper level low/trough and a secondary cold front will cross the area between 04z and 12z tonight. Low VFR/MVFR cigs will transition to low MVFR/IFR conditions with occasional light rain showers will begin around 04z through the overnight as a secondary cold front moves south on the back side of the strong low/trough. Drier air will eventually start to move into the area from the north during the daytime hours Saturday, with gradual improvements to VFR conditions from north to south by the end of the TAF period early Saturday evening. Northwest winds of generally 5 to 12 kts will transition to northerly as the secondary cold front passes through late tonight, with 5 to 15 kt sustained wind speeds lingering through much of the day Saturday before beginning to diminish toward the end of the TAF period Saturday evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...CMC  071 FXUS64 KMRX 162338 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 738 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Showers this afternoon and tonight will linger over the mountains into early Saturday before ending. Snow may mix in over the higher mountain peaks late tonight into early Saturday. - Much cooler and drier air will move in for the weekend and the first frost of the season will likely occur Saturday night across portions of the area, with frost possible again Sunday night. - Dry with a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Very warm again this afternoon ahead of the front, and highs are flirting with daily records again at CHA, OQT, and TRI. Today's record highs are below: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-16 85(1953) 87(1897) 83(1984) 83(2016) A strong cold front will be pushing through our area this afternoon, with gusty winds and some showers. A few rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out far north, but CAPE looks very limited. We will see some wind gusts approaching or in a few spots possibly exceeding 30 mph this afternoon, and these gusty winds will linger through tonight over some of the higher elevations. The showers will continue behind the front tonight as a deep mid/upper level trough digs through the region, then taper off late tonight with just a few showers lingering into Saturday mainly over the higher elevations. As much colder air pushes in behind the front, some snow will likely mix in over the higher mountain peaks later tonight into early Saturday before the precipitation ends. Snow may even whiten the ground with very light snow accumulation over the highest peaks late tonight/early Saturday before it melts. The weekend will be cool with high temperatures well below seasonal normals Saturday and still several degrees below normal Sunday. We will likely see the first frost of the season for portions of the area Saturday night. Right now the question for frost Saturday night is how much wind will be stirring, which could keep the frost confined more to sheltered valleys. It will be mostly clear again and winds will likely be lighter Sunday night, with frost again possible especially north and in outlying areas further south. No frost advisories, since we are past the date for ending the issuance of frost/freeze products for the fall. High pressure is forecast to be in control as we head into next week. Monday through Friday look dry with a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low stratus associated with the frontal passage will stick around overnight at TYS and TRI. CHA will likely bounce between MVFR and low VFR cigs. Any chance for additional precipitation is low. Northwest winds remain around 10kts with occasional gusts to 20kts tonight. Wind speed and gusts increase slightly after daybreak, but cigs will return to low VFR by end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 62 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 59 39 65 / 90 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 58 40 64 / 70 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 55 34 64 / 100 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...BH  105 FXUS65 KBOI 162339 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 539 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A high amplitude upper ridge currently covering the Pac NW will give way to shortwave energy that will push into BC, Canada this weekend. Saturday is the warmest day with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal, or solidly in the 70s across lower elevations. Sunday brings several degrees of cooling in response to the passing upper trough. Breezy south to east winds will fade on Sunday in response a weakening surface high along the Continental Divide and decrease in the flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 213 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Through the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Residual dry conditions with the wind will support elevated fire weather, though impacts will be minimal as the low continues to move in. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front moves through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. Ensemble guidance largely favors another cold front on Thursday as the low moves weakens and rejoins the broader flow. This will lead to even cold temperatures, about 5 degrees below normal, Thursday and Friday. Colder temps are accompanied by the best chances for precipitation across much of the area, with valley rain and mountain snow possible. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 532 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026 VFR with passing high clouds. Smoke from prescribed burns will locally reduce visibility. Local LLWS will develop overnight near the top of the inversion in the lower Snake Plain. Surface winds: E-S 5-15 kt through Sat/AM, then SE-SW Sat/PM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with E-S 5-15 kt surface winds through Saturday. Sunday Outlook...VFR conditions, with periods of high cloud cover. Surface winds become variable 5-12 kt Sunday. Winds aloft will remain out of the SW. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM  140 FXUS63 KBIS 162340 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions through the early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Limited updates needed at this time. Some near critical fire weather conditions may be found early this evening, especially in southwestern portions of North Dakota. Overall the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cyclonic flow is found across the northern Plains this afternoon, with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over western North Dakota this afternoon. With the surface pressure gradient tightening between this approaching surface high and an exiting surface low to our east, breezy south winds sustained around 15 to 20 MPH and gusting as high as 30 MPH have developed. Breezy winds are expected to linger overnight as we remain fairly well mixed and the surface gradient is slow to relax. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast from the mid 40s in the James River Valley, up to the lower to mid 50s west. Dry conditions are expected across North Dakota, especially in the southwest where relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 percent range. With the gusty south winds this afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early evening. Chilly overnight conditions are expected again with the clear skies over the forecast area, though the sustained winds are expected to prevent another widespread freeze like we saw last night. A building upper level ridge across the Great Plains this weekend will promote mild and dry weather across much of western and central North Dakota. Gusty south to southwest winds sustained around 15 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will persist over much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon, though are anticipated to rapidly diminish through the early evening. With the warm forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Saturday is expected to be even more dry than Friday, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 15 to 20 percent across much of the southwest. With the lower winds on Saturday, sub near critical fire weather conditions are currently expected, though we will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days. The upper level ridge is then expected to begin flattening through the day on Sunday as a northern stream waves passes through the Canadian Prairies. While highs in the 60s are still anticipated in the afternoon, clearing skies and very light winds could allow for another widespread freeze across much of the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Current ensemble probabilities of dropping to or below freezing is around 20 to 40 percent across much of the north and portions of the southwest Monday morning. With zonal flow then favored through the first half of the coming week, mild and dry weather is anticipated to continue through at least the mid week. Through this period, a Pacific Low is expected to make landfall in the southwestern CONUS before cutting through the Rockies up toward the northern Plains. Some variation in timing and relative strength of this upper level feature is found within the ensemble, but overall chances for precipitation is anticipated to increase starting Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period along withmostly clear skies. A breezy at times south southwest wind is also expected to develop this evening and continue through much of the forecast period. Some low level wind shear may be found as a result tonight, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward including KJMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Anglin  180 FXUS63 KUNR 162341 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 541 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. - Warm and dry weather expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mild and dry afternoon on tap as upper level ridge builds in the western US. Drier weather and warming temps expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build. With humidities dropping into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow, elevated fire wx conditions may develop over portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD where breezy southwest winds will develop in the afternoon. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late in the weekend. Closed upper low makes its way onshore over southern CA by Sunday. This system transforms to an open wave as treks northeastward across the desert Southwest and the Rockies. It should pass to our south early in the week with the main impacts being breezy southeasterly winds across portions of our area Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures next week will continue to be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s to 70s across much of the area. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 541 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...KSmith  211 FXUS64 KMOB 162341 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 641 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - There is an increased risk of wildfires on Saturday. - Dangerous marine conditions will persist through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night and continue into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Have made a few updates to the forecast. First, with higher moisture levels moving inland a bit further, convection has formed further inland over our coastal counties, so have bumped PoPs up there. Also, due to a few yellow rip current reports, have bumped the Rip Risk up to moderate for today into tonight. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Monday night, a deep upper trough passes over the Southeast later today through tonight, with a strong cold front currently moving across central Mississippi at this time, moving across and south of land portions of the forecast area this afternoon and marine waters this evening into the overnight hours in response. A drier airmass over the forecast area at this time (precipitable h20 levels 1.5" along the coast to 1.1" along the northern border of the forecast area). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters, as surface high pressure moving over the Mississippi River to the Eastern Conus, with a stronger surface ridge building south along the Appalachians in response to an upper level ridge moving over the Mississippi River and building. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a wind advisory for Friday night through Saturday. Northeast to northeast winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values possible are possible. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid 80s this afternoon dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Some rebounding occurs Monday, as the upper ridge begins to build and northerly winds ease. Low temperatures behind the front's passage drop into the mid 40s north of Highway 40 to mid/upper 50s south of I-10 to the coast, remaining so into the coming week. For Tuesday on, the upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to build. A nor'easter developing on the East Coast later in the weekend into the coming week will help to limit the eastward movement of the upper ridge and its effects, and evens shifts the ridge west over the Plains as it moves onshore over the southern Atlantic seaboard. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line, closer to the upper ridge axis. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow bringing weak, but a bit cooler, northeasterly flow, and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northwest winds can be expected beginning this evening behind a strong cold front. These strong winds will persist through the remainder of the forecast period. There will also be a few scattered showers just behind the front that should be short-lived. Mainly mid level clouds are anticipated behind the front but ceilings should remain VFR. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow today quickly becomes a strong to very strong northerly later this afternoon into tonight behind a cold front moving across the forecast area. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force, along with some area seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters tonight into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday as the stronger winds shift south. A Small Craft is in effect after the Gales goes down, lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Also, any areas with debris still on the ground over the western Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama, will be at added risk. A Fire Weather Warning is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 70 50 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 55 72 54 71 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 58 72 55 70 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 69 47 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 49 67 46 68 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  188 FXUS66 KMFR 162341 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 441 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs...LIFR conditions have returned to the immediate coast this afternoon north of Cape Blanco and are gradually spreading south along the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through the evening and into Saturday morning. Visibilities are likely to improve late tonight/early Saturday morning as a weak front passes through the region, but ceilings are likely to remain IFR overnight, possibly lifting to MVFR after 15z Saturday. Some MVFR ceilings are likely to push into the Umpqua Basin around 10-13z Saturday morning, and could linger into early Saturday afternoon as this weak front moves through the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the area through the TAF period. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1248 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with today being the warmest * Elevated fire weather conditions for eastside areas and northern California through the weekend * Below normal temperatures for much of next week * Rainfall chances increase early next week with the coast having the highest probability for measurable amounts DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... The upper level pattern is noted by a ridge of high pressure over the region. This ridge is helping maintain the well above normal temperatures we have been experiencing and will continue to see today. For example, Medford is forecast to reach ~86 for a high today which puts us about 16 degrees above normal. Yesterday we ended up being about 19 degrees above normal in Medford. The upper level high will move eastward tonight resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but still above normal by about 5-6 degrees. Additionally, as the high moves eastward, a dry cold front will pass through the region tomorrow. Its unlikely to see much--if any--rainfall but parts of Coos & Douglas County could see a few light rainfall showers that may squeeze out a trace to hundredth of an inch. A stronger system moves into the area on Monday. Model consensus stalls the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south from the main flow, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. This path is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will likely be the main area to see rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low sags south, but as the low sags south we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside areas middle parts of next week. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much--if not all--of the rainfall associated with this system. Will need to reevaluate if the system changes trajectory, but at this time we are not anticipating this to be a heavy rainfall producer for the forecast area. Areas along and near the coast could see around tenth of an inch of rainfall Monday into Monday night. Then light amounts of upwards near a tenth for eastside areas through middle parts of the week. Overall, this is a low impact forecast, but the above normal temperatures and breezy wind speeds combined with low RH through the afternoon hours will lead to at least an elevated concern for fire weather conditions. This will likely be the biggest potential impact in the forecast if a fire starts. Fortunately, we are not seeing any significant wind speeds which should help limit fire spread if we happen to get any new fire starts. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub- advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through Saturday morning. North winds increase and a new swell arrives Saturday afternoon. This will result in steep to very steep seas which includes a Hazardous Seas Warning for much of the southern waters where wind speeds will be strongest, and conditions will be hazardous to small craft from areas around Cape Blanco northward to around Reedsport. Thereafter, a brief break is anticipated Sunday night, but Monday afternoon into Monday night, a west swell builds into the area which will likely lead to steep seas around 11 to 14 feet for much of the waters. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$  233 FXUS63 KEAX 162341 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 641 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will diminish with temperatures falling into the 30s throughout Friday evening. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. - Temperatures in the 70s and 80s return for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the advection of cooler air in the wake of yesterdays cold front, temperatures throughout the rest of the day today will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Synoptically, a 500mb positively tilted trough is digging over our region, with strong winds aloft as the jet stream passes right overhead. This has allowed for a large pressure gradient in response to high pressure over the western Great Plains, and the low pressure system that exited to our east yesterday. As a result, expect gusty winds out of the north up to 30mph, before diminishing in the evening hours as we lose the daytime mixing. Throughout the evening and overnight hours, the surface high to our west, along with dry air to our north will both approach our area. This will help push off any remaining cloud cover, and allow temperatures to drop into the 30s. Portions of areas north of Interstate 70 will likely dip down into the low 30s, prompting the issuance of a Freeze Warning to our northern counties. The rest of the area will get down into the mid-30s, with many of those areas having a Frost Advisory in effect. Precaution will include protecting any sensitive plants, crops, and vegetation. Saturday and Sunday will be quiet as our trough moves off to the east, along with the high pressure approaching. We will also see little if any cloud cover this weekend, as drier air advects from our north. Temperatures will also climb back up into the 60s, especially on Sunday as pressure heights increase and warm air advection moves into our region. Conditions will remain quiet throughout next week, with the ridge staying in place, and allowing southerly flow to advect warm air. Temperatures then will return into the 70s and 80s by the middle part of the week. While this happens, a trough will begin to develop off the west coast, and will strengthen as it interacts with a subtropical jet. As this disturbance gets its act together, it will move into our area by late next week and into the weekend. Exact timing and effects still remain to be seen, as certainty will increase as we get closer to the time period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Sky coverage is opening up across the terminals with northerly winds expected to gust for the next few hours. Greater sky coverage and lowered MVFR CIGs are expected across interior MO for the next several hours. Winds become light and variable through the second half of the overnight before shifting more southerly tomorrow morning. A few low level clouds are possible, but CIGs are expected to remain VFR. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bjork AVIATION...PeselEAX-282557  238 FXUS63 KEAX 162341 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 641 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will diminish with temperatures falling into the 30s throughout Friday evening. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. - Temperatures in the 70s and 80s return for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With the advection of cooler air in the wake of yesterdays cold front, temperatures throughout the rest of the day today will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Synoptically, a 500mb positively tilted trough is digging over our region, with strong winds aloft as the jet stream passes right overhead. This has allowed for a large pressure gradient in response to high pressure over the western Great Plains, and the low pressure system that exited to our east yesterday. As a result, expect gusty winds out of the north up to 30mph, before diminishing in the evening hours as we lose the daytime mixing. Throughout the evening and overnight hours, the surface high to our west, along with dry air to our north will both approach our area. This will help push off any remaining cloud cover, and allow temperatures to drop into the 30s. Portions of areas north of Interstate 70 will likely dip down into the low 30s, prompting the issuance of a Freeze Warning to our northern counties. The rest of the area will get down into the mid-30s, with many of those areas having a Frost Advisory in effect. Precaution will include protecting any sensitive plants, crops, and vegetation. Saturday and Sunday will be quiet as our trough moves off to the east, along with the high pressure approaching. We will also see little if any cloud cover this weekend, as drier air advects from our north. Temperatures will also climb back up into the 60s, especially on Sunday as pressure heights increase and warm air advection moves into our region. Conditions will remain quiet throughout next week, with the ridge staying in place, and allowing southerly flow to advect warm air. Temperatures then will return into the 70s and 80s by the middle part of the week. While this happens, a trough will begin to develop off the west coast, and will strengthen as it interacts with a subtropical jet. As this disturbance gets its act together, it will move into our area by late next week and into the weekend. Exact timing and effects still remain to be seen, as certainty will increase as we get closer to the time period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Sky coverage is opening up across the terminals with northerly winds expected to gust for the next few hours. Greater sky coverage and lowered MVFR CIGs are expected across interior MO for the next several hours. Winds become light and variable through the second half of the overnight before shifting more southerly tomorrow morning. A few low level clouds are possible, but CIGs are expected to remain VFR. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bjork AVIATION...Pesel  269 FXUS65 KGJT 162343 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 543 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably cool conditions remain in place through the weekend. - A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for valley locations where sub-freezing temperatures are expected. - The potential for unsettled weather will increase throughout the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: With high pressure driving the forecast, sunny days, clear nights, and dry conditons continue through the weekend. A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for parts of northwest Colorado and CO Zone 23 in southwest Colorado with another night of sub-freezing temperatures expected. Most locations within the Freeze Warning also saw a hard freeze last night. Otherwise, seasonable to seasonably cool daytime temperatures highlight the forecast through the weekend. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK: The next chance for impactful weather comes next week as a low pressure system traverses the West. Ahead of this system, southwesterly flow will begin to direct moisture towards the region as early as Monday. As a result, isolated convection is possible over the southern Mountains early in the week. By mid- week, an uptick in synoptic forcing could increase the coverage of showers and storms across the region. It's too early to pin down the potential hazards associated with this system, but expect increasingly unsettled weather as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies will be the rule over the next 24 hours with VFR conditions expected. Some enhanced drainage winds are possible at KHDN overnight but otherwise, winds will remain light and terrain, driven for much of the area. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KAA AVIATION...TGJT  486 FXUS63 KLMK 162345 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and scattered light rain showers will continue through this evening. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with frost and possibly some freezing temperatures (over the Bluegrass region) on Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ********Breezy and Cool Today********* With frontal passage this morning, winds have been breezy out of the northwest. We hit our max temps this morning right before frontal passage, and will hit our mins close to midnight. Overnight lows will be around 40. Expect spotty, light showers through the remainder of the day. A surface high pressure will build into the region on Saturday and the low pressure continue off to the northeast. This tight pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions through Saturday afternoon before weakening. Skies will gradually clear by Saturday afternoon from northwest to southeast. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid- upper 50s. ***********This Weekend's Chill*********** Sunday morning, temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s, which will bring frost and a chance for freezing temperatures. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Bluegrass counties. This may be upgraded to a Freeze Warning or a Frost Advisory in subsequent forecasts. Areas southwest of this Freeze Watch may be added to the potential frost advisory. In the afternoon, highs will warm into the low-mid 60s. *****************Next Week****************** We will remain under loose ridging and surface high pressure for much of next week. This means light winds, clear skies, and highs creeping up into the upper 60s on Monday, 70s through the middle of next week, and potentially scraping 80 in a few southwestern spots by the end of next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for next week. Northeasterly flow and dry air aloft may bring some chances for dry air mix down next week. If this is the case, we will see drier afternoon RHs in the upper teens and low 20s. Should be a seasonable fall week ahead. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As the front moves farther off to the east, MVFR ceilings are expected to drop south out of Indiana over area TAF sites. The lower of these ceilings, 1,500 feet or so, are expected to impact LEX and RGA for several hours tonight. Farther west, at SDF, HNB, and BWG 2,500 feet ceiling are expected to pass overhead a little quicker. LEX and RGA could see some additional showers out of this deck too. Winds will increase out of the north and remain gusty until Saturday afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ036-037-041>043-049. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SRW/JPH AVIATION...KDW  307 FXUS63 KLOT 162344 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 644 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and seasonably chilly conditions persist this afternoon with some scattered showers. - East of Gary, lake enhanced showers this afternoon will transition to lake effect showers tonight with a slight chance of a thunderstorm near the shore late this afternoon/early this evening. Wind gusts to 45 mph possible near the northwest Indiana lakefront this afternoon/early evening. - Coldest night of the season expected tonight with lows near/just below freezing across interior portions of northern IL. - Dry and mild weather returns Sunday and persists next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A seasonably strong and expansive high-pressure system over the Great Plains continues to build eastward into the Midwest this afternoon, following a surface low moving into New England. Strong northerly winds between these systems are pushing the season's coldest airmass southward into the area, resulting in a cloudy, chilly, and breezy day across the region. A few widely scattered showers remain possible across northern Illinois through sunset as an upper-level trough moves overhead. However, shower activity will primarily concentrate over Lake Michigan late this afternoon and evening as lake-effect parameters rapidly improve. This should lead to focused lake-effect showersand potentially a few thunderstormsshifting inland from southern Lake Michigan into northwestern Indiana this evening. Scattered lake effect showers may linger after midnight, but they are expected to diminish toward Saturday morning as inversion heights lower and lake-effect parameters weaken following the passage of the upper-level trough. Outside of lake-effect precipitation and cloud cover in northwestern Indiana, skies will clear and winds will gradually subside this evening. This will be especially true across interior portions of northern Illinois, where the coldest temperatures of the season are forecast tonight. The current forecast remains on track for a couple of hours of near-freezing temperatures early Saturday morning, most notably across far northern Illinois from the Fox Valley westward. Consequently, no changes were made to the frost and freeze headlines in effect for interior northern Illinois late tonight. Following a chilly and frosty start on Saturday, full sunshine and light winds are forecast as the surface high moves directly over the region. The abundant sunshine will help temperatures rebound into the upper 50s during the afternoon. Another chilly night will follow Saturday night as temperatures drop back into the 30s. Given the light winds, additional frosty conditions are possible, particularly east of I-55 where the lightest winds are expected. We will continue to monitor this period for potential frost headlines. The cold snap will be short-lived as conditions transition back to a mild and dry autumn pattern. High temperatures are forecast to return to the 60s on Sunday and Monday, before warming into the 70s for the remainder of next week with little to no chance of rain. KJB && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key concerns for the 00Z TAF period: * Winds gusting into the 25-30 kt range will gradually diminish this evening. * At GYY, periods of lake-effect rain expected through early Saturday. North winds will gradually diminish this evening and any lingering showers should dissipate for most of the region as a ridge of high pressure moves toward the area, although the GYY area will likely see lingering lake effect showers into early Saturday. As the ridge axis moves overhead Saturday morning, winds may go light and variable for a period before turning southwesterly where they should remain for the rest of the TAF period. Lenning && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Northerly gales to 40kt are forecast this afternoon and evening, with strongest gusts to 40kt+ likely within the lake enhanced convergence band and with more robust lake effect showers over the Indiana waters east of Gary. In addition to an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening. Waterspout risk is expected to diminish late this evening as inversion heights lower. Lake effect shower intensity and coverage will decrease overnight also in response to the decreasing inversion heights. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ003- ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ006- ILZ019-ILZ020. IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  377 FXUS64 KSHV 162345 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 645 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - An areawide Red Flag Warning is in effect through 1 AM tonight. North central Louisiana parishes will be included in a Red Flag Warning tomorrow for continued very low humidity and gusty winds. - Cooler than average temperatures this weekend will be followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passing cold front, area dew points are plummeting into the 30s and 40s as a very dry airmass pours into the ArkLaTex. North winds are reaching gusts of 25 to 35 kts. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours before winds trend downward and humidity values increase towards daybreak. Winds will remain elevated enough that fog development is not expected unless in very isolated sheltered pockets. Dew points will remain low tomorrow, bringing minimum relative humidity values back into the 25 to 35 percent range. However, winds will not be as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana. Given these factors, have elected to issue a new Red Flag Warning for our north central Louisiana parishes from 7 AM through 9 PM tomorrow, with all other counties and parishes included in a Fire Danger Statement. The ArkLaTex will wake up to below average temperatures tomorrow morning, ranging from the lower 40s north to lower 50s south of the I-20 corridor. Abundant sunshine will prevail while cool air advection keeps afternoon highs in the upper 60s to just barely breaking 70 degrees at our warmest sites tomorrow. Sunday morning looks to be the chilliest of this forecast, as lows fall into the 40s areawide with even a few upper 30s possible in southwest Arkansas. By Sunday afternoon, all area sites should be taking aim at the 70s once again as ridging begins to take shape aloft over the south central CONUS. Rebuilding southwest flow aloft followed by amplifying ridging from east Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks will result in a rapid warming trend going into next week, with upper 70s and and lower 80s making a widespread return Monday and Tuesday, and middle to upper 80s and even some sites reaching 90 again by mid to late next week. The continuing proximity of upper level ridging and associated subsidence will inhibit any active weather, with dry and warm conditions expected through to the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the 17/00z TAFs, breezy conditions will persist at most terminals for much of this TAF cycle. Strong northerly winds will continue with gusts between 20 and 25 kts at most locations initially, but wind speeds should gradually diminish somewhat by midnight local time. However, very strong winds will persist just above the surface, especially across portions of Louisiana and into Deep East Texas during the early morning hours, so I did include a mention of LLWS at KMLU and KLFK. Winds speeds may increase again, and gusts up to 20 kts may return again after sunrise Saturday morning. The pressure gradient should finally relax after 17/18z allowing winds to fall to around 10 kts or less. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail. /Nuttall/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Behind the passage of the cold front, very dry air will overtake area fire districts, plunging relative humidity values into the 25to 35 percent range. Concurrently, north-northwest winds will maintain sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph possible. Very low minimum relative humidity values will continue tomorrow. However, winds will not be nearly as elevated as today, achieving sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with isolated gusts of up to 30 kts possible, the highest speeds expected across our southeastern zones in central Louisiana, which will be included in another Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM tomorrow. All other zones will be included in a Fire Danger Statement. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotter activation may be needed today and through the day Saturday in the event of wildfire development. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 41 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 45 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ005-006- 013-014-018>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...09  535 FXUS62 KCAE 162346 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 746 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect from early Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted. A strong cold front is currently pushing through the Appalachians this evening, and will be moving into the Piedmont area east of the mountains shortly. The front is still on track to move through our forecast area later tonight. Surface winds over our area have diminished some with sunset, but still remain southwesterly around 5 mph for the most part. As the front moves through between 10p and 3a, winds will turn quickly out of the northwest, and increase once again to between 8-13 mph, and gusts will return and could reach over 30 mph at times. With strong synoptic forcing overspreading the area behind the front, and possibly enough moisture moving through the region, some light rainfall is still forecast to develop relatively quickly across the area. Some scattered rain is expected between 06z and 15z across the area, with this moving eastward as synoptic forcing shifts eastward. As the rain moves out, a strong pressure gradient will setup across the area thereafter, yielding strong northeasterly winds for most of Saturday and Sunday. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Saturday (at best) and only the low 60s on Sunday. Both EFI for temps has trended towards a cool signal this weekend and early next week, adding confidence to well below normal highs and lows settling over the area. Also, because of the frequent wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected both days, a longer duration Lake Wind Advisory has been issued through Sunday evening. Boaters on area lakes should be cautious, especially in the evening and overnight as warm lake waters will allow stronger wind gusts to persist over the lakes at night. Next week looks beautiful with large daily diurnal spreads owing to a very dry airmass in place. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s are likely throughout much of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected with gusty winds and possible light showers in the early morning hours on Saturday. Winds this evening have diminished a bit from what we saw early and should remain on the lighter side into the night. As the strong cold front continues to move closer to the region, winds should pick back up from the northwest and become gusty at times after 07-10z. Some light rain is possible with the frontal passage but not confident in vsby restrictions. Guidance is trending to a period of MVFR cigs behind the front with strong cold advection. MVFR cigs may linger through late morning hours but should improve back to VFR near the end of the forecast period for all terminals except maybe OGB. Wind gusts will be above 20 knots for most of the day with a shift to a more northerly component by the end of this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Gusty winds expected to continue through the weekend due to an increased pressure gradient with a developing coastal low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$ DISCUSSION...73/PL AVIATION...ND  612 FXUS62 KCHS 162349 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 749 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through this evening. - 2) Below normal temperatures and gusty winds expected this weekend in the wake of a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through this evening. Today and Tonight: Aloft, the pattern will feature a broad high centered across the western Atlantic and a sharp/digging trough extending across the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The trough will advance across the East CONUS during the day, helping force a strong cold front east-southeast toward the Southeast United States throughout the day and evening, before entering the local area during early morning hours Saturday. Ahead of the front, a somewhat breezy south-southwest sfc wind (gusts to 15-20 mph) will help support temperatures well above normal within the warm-sector, with afternoon highs generally in the mid-upper 80s locally. Daily record highs are at or above 90 at both CHS and SAV (see Climate section), so it remains unlikely that records will be tied or broken. Mild temps (low-mid 70s) will persist ahead of the front this evening, but will quickly cool once fropa occurs late night, generally into the upper 50s inland to low-mid 60s near the coast before sunrise. Latest guidance continues to indicate a limited moisture supply near and shortly post fropa, supporting a few showers with light precip accumulation across northern areas after daybreak Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Below normal temperatures and gusty winds expected this weekend in the wake of a strong cold front. A potent upper-level trough will drive a strong cold front off the coast early Saturday morning. In its wake, strong high pressure centered over the Central Plains will build eastward toward the Ohio Valley, tightening the pressure gradient. Strong cold air advection will begin to take hold Saturday afternoon, dropping temperatures below early-autumn normals. Daytime highs on Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 60s across most inland areas, with lower 70s confined to the far southern Georgia coast. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will plummet into the 40s inland, with low to mid 50s along the immediate coastline. Sunday will be the coolest day of the stretch despite abundant sunshine, with highs struggling to reach the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will slowly rebound early to mid next week. In addition to the cooler temperatures, breezy conditions will quickly develop behind the front. Winds will increase noticeably across the area Saturday morning as strong surface high pressure builds in from the west. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 30 mph across the area Saturday into Sunday. Slightly higher gusts are possible along the immediate coast and over elevated bridges and overpasses. While winds remains just shy of Wind Advisory criteria, conditions will remain quite gusty. Across Lake Moultrie, cold air moving over the relatively warm lake waters will produce gusts of 25-30 kt and rough chop. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued starting Saturday morning through Sunday evening. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The 00Z TAF period will initialize with VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region early Saturday morning, resulting in a sharp wind shift from the SW to the NW around 10Z. There is a slight chance of showers associated with the front, mainly at KCHS/KJZI. This threat has been highlighted in a PROB30 group Saturday morning. Thereafter, some MVFR cigs are forecast to move into KCHS/KJZI and linger into the early afternoon. Showers and flight restrictions are not forecast at KSAV through the 00Z TAF period. Gusty NW winds will develop at all terminals Saturday, with gusts upwards of 25-30 knots. Extended Aviation Outlook: Frequent gusts around 25 kt will occur at the terminals Saturday morning into Monday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A strong cold front will approach the Southeast United States today, before reaching the coast late tonight/near sunrise Saturday. Ahead of the front, southwest flow will increase to 10-15 kt through the afternoon with a few gusts around 20 kt possible, primarily across SC waters. Overnight, winds will continue to increase as the pressure gradient tightens near/along the approaching cold front, then sharply change direction to northwest/north by around sunrise. Strong cold air advection near and post fropa will set the stage for sustained 15-20 kt winds with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas will also build during the night, generally to 2-4 ft through sunrise. Extended Marine: A strong cold front will push offshore early Saturday morning as high pressure builds eastward from the Central U.S. Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly through Saturday as intense cold air advection streams over warm sea surface temperatures. A brief period of Small Craft Advisories Saturday morning will quickly escalate to widespread Gale Warnings for all our marine zones out to 60 nm by the afternoon. Strong north- northeast gales are anticipated Saturday night through Monday morning, featuring sustained winds of 25-35 kt with frequent gusts of 35-45 kt. Hazardous seas will build rapidly, peaking at 7 to 11 feet in the nearshore waters and 11 to 15 feet across the outer Georgia waters. Winds will begin to ease late Monday night, but elevated seas will necessitate extended Small Craft Advisories through at least mid-week. High Surf: Prolonged gales and a continuous north-northeast fetch will generate large breaking waves of 5+ feet along area beaches Sunday into Monday, with the highest breakers along the southeast Georgia beaches. High Surf Advisories remain likely for the entire coast. Additionally, prolonged wave action could result in minor to moderate beach erosion. Rip Currents: The combination of strong/persistent gales, elevated seas, and building long-period swell will support a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all area beaches Saturday. A High Risk is expected for all beaches on Sunday, with an elevated risk persisting well into next week as hazardous marine conditions continue. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KCHS: 90/2018 KCXM: 88/2018 KSAV: 91/2018 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Saturday for AMZ360- 362-364-384. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360- 362-364-380-382-384. && $$ BRS/CPM/DPB  606 FXUS64 KEPZ 162349 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 549 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front has pushed through today bringing continued breezy and windy conditions with well below normal temperatures. - High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory still in effect through tonight for southwest New Mexico. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in New Mexico bootheel. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today, we will see our coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows dipping down to the low 40s through much of the lowlands. Area mountains will see subfreezing conditions with the Sacs reaching the low 20s in some parts during tomorrow's early morning. These temperature trends are about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. High temperatures will rebound by the end of the weekend. Widespread sustained easterly winds between 20 and 30 mph will continue this afternoon and evening with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times in parts of southern Hidalgo county. Blowing dust remains a concern through this evening coinciding with the greatest wind threat in southern Hidalgo county according to the signatures in the RRFS. A Blowing Dust Advisory near the Lordsburg Playa, NM Bootheel, and Luna county is in effect through 8 PM tonight. Winds subside and precip chances are rather slim for most of the weekend with greater chances favoring the western half of the CWA on Sunday morning as a developing upper level low pushes east. This low deepens considerably over the course of next week bringing with it increasing chances for precip. Flooding is possible with areawide rain and PWs reaching around 1 inch. Confidence remains low for midweek rain impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VMC through forecast period as gusty east flow diminishes overnight. Surface winds 080-110 at 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots across SW NM and W TX through 06Z tonight. Lighter flow Saturday morning 070-100 at 5 to 10 knots, though gusts to 20 knots may linger at KDMN/KLRU overnight. Skies generally FEW- SCT170, with greater coverage east over W TX. East flow continues on Saturday, though lighter than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds remain breezy to windy today sustained between 25-30 mph, before subsiding late this evening. Lighter winds Saturday afternoon except locations bordering Arizona. Light winds of 5-10 mph persist each afternoon through mid-week next week. Min RH's will begin to rise over the weekend starting in the upper teens in the lowlands and reaching the 20s in higher terrain. On Sunday, these values increase as more moisture filters into the area. By next week, rain chances will continue to increase putting min RH's over 40% by Wednesday. Ventilation rates range from good to very good today and drop to poor to good tomorrow. Rates Sunday will be poor becoming poor to good early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40 Deming 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40 West El Paso Metro 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30 Hurley 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30 Cliff 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40 Mule Creek 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40 Faywood 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hachita 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20 Antelope Wells 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt  678 FXUS64 KHUN 162351 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front will track southeastward across the TN Valley today, bringing a low chance of rain to the region (that will continue through early Saturday morning). - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will occur this afternoon and again on Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday morning in a few wind- sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There have been no changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning. A cold front continues to progress quickly southeastward across the TN Valley early this afternoon, and should exit our CWFA by 22Z (if not sooner). Widespread low stratus clouds and NNW winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will persist in the wake of the cold, although both sustained speeds and gusts should diminish a bit overnight. Conditions still appear favorable for the development of pockets of light stratiform from late this afternoon through this evening, and we will make no changes to POPs at this time (especially as a few showers may continue to impact the northeastern corner of the CWFA through early tomorrow morning). Overnight lows appear on track to reach the m-u 40s. Previous Discussion: Over the course of the near term period, a strong mid-level high (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will retreat eastward as an amplifying northern stream shortwave trough digs from the Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Appalachians. In response to this, a deepening area of low pressure at the surface will advance east-northeastward across southern QC/northern New England and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence by the end of the period. A cold front extending southwestward from the low will make steady southeastward progression across the local forecast area today, and after entering northwest AL ~14Z should exit our southeastern counties by ~22Z. In spite of limited instability (with ensemble MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg), sufficient boundary layer moisture should exist in the vicinity of the frontal confluence axis for the development of a thin line of low-topped convective showers as the front progresses across the region. As mid-level WSW flow increases to 70-80 knots and synoptic scale ascent strengthens this afternoon and evening downstream from the approaching 500-mb wave, one or more bands of light stratiform rain may also evolve within the postfrontal airmass, and we have made a minor increase in POPs region-wide within the 21-3Z timeframe to account for this scenario. In the wake of the cold front, surface winds will veer sharply to NNW and strengthen, with sustained speeds of 10-15 MPH and gusts up to 20-25 MPH (perhaps 25-30 MPH in a few locations) anticipated. This will quickly begin to advect a cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and modified North Pacific air into the region, with daily max temperatures dependent of timing of frontal passage (and related CAA/increase in cloud cover). Although lingering light rain this evening (in the eastern portion of the CWFA) will likely end by 3Z, favorably oriented low-level streamlines may continue to generate a few oragraphically-induced showers across the northeastern half of the region through sunrise tomorrow. Due to the combination of widespread stratus clouds and a moderate NNW wind, overnight lows will generally be in the m-u 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough (positioned to the immediate northeast of the local forecast area at the beginning of the period) is predicted to evolve into a weak low that will drift southeastward to the NC Coast by Sunday night as it becomes detached from the polar westerlies. As a low-amplitude mid-level ridge builds northeastward into the region (in the wake of this feature), strong NNW flow aloft will weaken considerably from Saturday night-Sunday night, and due to the dry nature of the airmass and absence of atmospheric lift, we expect dry conditions to prevail (in the wake of any lingering wrap-around showers early Saturday morning). In the low-levels, a surface high will migrate northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday (and into the northern Mid-Atlantic States Saturday night). This configuration will result in NNE winds (of similar magnitude to today) on Saturday, with flow diminishing and veering to ENE Saturday night. Regardless of sunny skies, afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the m-u 50s in elevated terrain to the l-m 60s in the valley. This will be followed by optimal conditions for radiational cooling on Saturday night, with lows in the u30s-l40s (away from large water sources). If winds become calm (which is unlikely based on the anticipated pressure gradient), forecast soundings suggest that dewpoint depressions will be sufficiently narrow to support the development of patchy frost in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN/northeast AL (where temps may fall into the mid 30s). As the surface high shifts further northeastward into the northwestern Atlantic on Sunday/Sunday night, a lingering surface ridge axis will maintain a light easterly-calm wind across the region. Afternoon temperatures will rise a few degrees into the m-u 60s, with overnight lows Monday morning once again in the m30s-l40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions have prevailed across the area with a mid level stratus deck forecast to persist through the evening hours. The back edge of this cloud deck can be seen moving into NW AL currently. While there may be some clearing behind this, additional MVFR cigs are forecast overnight and amendments may be necessary to account for satellite trends and observations. Northerly winds will remain gusty in the wake of a cold front, and wind shear will increase near the KMSL terminal tonight. Have included northerly wind shear between 35-40kts at 2kft for KMSL through 15z tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70 SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25  658 FXUS65 KPUB 162350 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 550 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hard freeze most (but not all) of plains tonight. - Warm dry weather most of plains into late week. - Quite a bit of beneficial moisture for the Continental Divide (especially San Juans) during most of this period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Main concern in the short term will be cold temperatures early tomorrow morning. Guidances continues to show temperatures falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s over nearly all of the plains. For this reason a Freeze Warning has been issued for the plains. With that said, some of the plains will likely stay above freezing as downslope flow is expected along the mtn/plains interface, and areas just immediately east of the mtns will likes stay above freezing. I should note that the San Luis Valley has had a hard freeze the last couple of night, and thus no more frost/freeze highlights will be issued for the SLV. For tomorrow, it will start to warm up, and temperature will warm up into the lower 70s most of the plains, with 60s in the valleys. It will be dry across the region tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The good new in the long term forecast is we are likely to see quite a bit of precipitation during this period over the western sections of the forecast area, especially along the San Juan mountains. By Sunday, moisture will increase over the southwest US and push to the northeast. Showers will develop over the San Juans by late Sunday as a weak disturbance over the SW moves over the region. A more substantial trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest Monday and then slowly amplify and drop south-southeast through the week. This trough promises to bring much more substantial moisture to the San Juans by mid week. This troughiness is expected to continue over the region into next weekend. For the remainder of the region, especially the plains, It will likely remain dry and unseasonably warm. Expect max temps on the plains to be in the 70s to around 80F during this period, which is about 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The best chance of some precip over the lower elevations will not occur until next weekend. Although the ContDvd is likely to see quite a bit of precip, temps are unseasonably warm, so snow levels will likely be quite high, The best chance for substantial accumulating snow over most of the mtns will not occur until the trough is actually moving over the region, and this will not occur until mid to late week. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 549 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with light diurnal wind cycle expected. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...PETERSEN  636 FXUS66 KOTX 162350 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. - Cold temperatures with frost expected across much of the region for Sunday morning. - Dry weather continues through at least the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures && .SYNOPSIS... Friday will remain dry with mild temperatures and light winds. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will develop with the passage of a cold front. Little to no precipitation will occur with the front and dry conditions expected through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures cooling to near normal over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will be displaced to east of region heading into the overnight period. Moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will spread high level clouds across the region. Otherwise, moisture will be lacking ahead of this front will little to no precipitation expected; the Cascade crest will see light precipitation with it and that's about all. The front will bring significant cooling and tighten the westerly gradient with winds picking up throughout the day on Saturday. Westerly winds sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-35 mph will be common across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin. Peak wind speeds will be achieved in the afternoon before relaxing quickly as the sun sets in the evening. Light weight objects may be blown around if not secured (e.g. Halloween decorations). Patchy blowing dust is also possible near recently worked fields, but much of the crops planted this time of year have been done so already and the expectation is that the risk of blowing dust is decreasing compared to late September into early October. Winds may also result in choppy lakes that pose a risk for those on small crafts. Sunday night through Wednesday night: Shortwave ridging of high pressure then builds in behind the exiting cold front by Sunday. There will be a considerable amount of drier air that pushes in behind the cold front on Saturday. A clear night with dry air in place will result in strong radiational cooling as winds weaken. Low temperatures Sunday morning figure to be on the chilly side. Temperatures in the northern mountain valleys are expected to cool down into the upper 20s, especially for the colder more sheltered areas. Much of the Columbia Basin is expected to see temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. This will lead frost formation and anyone that protected plants from the freezing temperatures earlier in the week should plan to cover sensitive vegetation Sunday night as well. Areas at the tail end of the growing season that may see frost Sunday morning includes the Wenatchee Area and Moses Lake Area. The Lewiston-Clarkston Valley is less likely to see temperatures cold enough for frost as dew points are expected to be above freezing with lows closer to around 40 degrees. The weather then remains dry heading through the first part of next week. An upper level trough deepens in the eastern Pacific with a low closing off but it will dig far enough south to primarily bring precipitation to California by Tuesday into Wednesday. The Northwest will be under split flow with the northern branch of the jet stream directing moisture into British Columbia. Winds remain light and temperatures near normal. Thursday into Friday: The upper level low that pushes into California looks to eject northeast across the Great Basin and may spread light precipitation primarily over the Idaho Panhandle by Thursday. We also may see light precipitation across the Cascade crest at this time with snow levels dropping down to around 5,000 feet Thursday night. There is the potential for a light dusting of snow in the mountains in the Cascades. The probability of any precipitation to occur over the Cascade crest and in the Idaho Panhandle is between 30-40%. Not impactful precipitation by any means and not expected to produce much wetting precipitation as well. The dry start to our fall looks to continue and it isn't helping with the ongoing drought situation that we are seeing across the region. /SVH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions are likely through the period. A cold front will approach the Northwest Region today. Drier easterly winds ahead of the front will promote VFR conditions with some high level cirrus clouds filtering across. Winds will be particularly breezy at KPUW sustained at 15-18 kts into the early afternoon (until 21Z) before decreasing a bit later on. Cold front passage will be in the late morning on Saturday between 15-18Z at KEAT and KMWH to early afternoon 18Z-22Z at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. A brief period of low level wind shear is expected at KPUW between 15-17Z Saturday morning before westerly winds aloft are able to mix down to the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 44 64 35 59 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 42 63 35 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 64 36 61 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 44 71 41 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 67 29 61 32 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 61 32 58 35 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 61 36 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 39 68 31 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 66 36 61 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 33 61 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  770 FXUS64 KFWD 162353 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 653 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. - Quiet conditions continue through Thursday, with temperatures warming back towards seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Skies continue to scatter out from the northwest early this afternoon as the drier continental airmass pushes into the region. Some upper-level clouds with origins from the Sierra Madre will persist within southwesterly flow aloft as a cutoff low retrogrades through Baja California. Elsewhere across the country, an amplifying shortwave currently positioned over the Great Lakes will progress southeast through the eastern CONUS while ridging builds in its wake. At the surface locally, the cold front has cleared the southeastern counties of the CWA, with a strong cold- core high over the High Plains sending cool dry air through North and Central Texas. The primary weather story today is the gusty winds. 1700Z RAP objective analysis depicts a closed 1042mb contour at the center of the surface high which is progged to expand southeast through the afternoon. The tightened post-frontal pressure gradient will result in sustained 30mph winds, gusting to 50mph at times as diurnal mixing deepens the boundary layer to ~850mb and transports some of that 850 momentum down to the surface. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7pm this evening. Breezy conditions will continue through the first half of the night until the high makes enough southeastward progress to relax the pressure gradient locally. Continued low-level CAA will offset a good portion of today's diabatic heating, resulting in highs in the 60s area-wide. While winds up to 20mph will linger through the overnight hours, clearing skies amidst dry conditions will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Lows tonight will be the coolest we've seen since late April, dropping into the 40s. High pressure through the column will continue to move east, with North and Central Texas positioned beneath through Sunday (and beyond). The accompanying continental airmass will remain, with tomorrow's highs peaking in the 60s and Sunday's highs approaching 70F. Lows will mimic that of tonight, though a few locations west of U.S. 281 may see temperatures drop into the upper-30s Saturday night. Northerly winds on Saturday will become easterly on Sunday (speeds around 10mph) as the primary surface high builds upstream of the mid/upper shortwave departing through the Eastern Seaboard. Skies will be mostly clear. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current indications amongst the global guidance are that a subtly progressive omega block will gradually develop through the workweek, with the flanking lows straddling the contiguous U.S. as the eastern CONUS shortwave cuts off from the primary branch of the polar jet and an incoming trough amplifies off the West Coast. Central CONUS ridging will remain established through the period, resulting in dry conditions and mostly clear skies amongst associated synoptic subsidence. Temperatures will steadily climb towards the mid-80s by Thursday as the post-frontal airmass modifies and ESE surface flow returns. With the recent cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf, moisture return will be limited, compounded by return trajectories taking the modest dewpoints west of the area later in the week. "High and dry" is the colloquial phrase being said around the office. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The gusty northerly winds that were felt at all the terminals today will continue to drop off, with 10-15KT windspeeds and 15-20KT gusts expected. Breezy north winds will continue through the extended TAF period. There are no chances for any precip this TAF cycle. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 65 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 49 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 45 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 44 64 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 65 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 48 66 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 46 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 66 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 48 66 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 42 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dornsife LONG TERM....Dornsife AVIATION...Stalley/Davis  767 FXUS64 KMEG 162352 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 652 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Periods of gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph through this evening and 25 mph on Saturday. - Dry weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hello Fall, is that finally you? After what has seemed like a never-ending summer across the Mid-South, we finally have some true fall-like conditions today behind a cold front. Temperatures currently span the 60s for much of the area, with a few locations still in the 50s. While the main, surface cold front has cleared our area, we are beginning to see a few post-frontal showers develop west of I-55. Conditions are generally dry enough at the surface that much of this activity likely will not reach the surface, but some light rain cannot necessarily be ruled out as it moves from northwest to southeast across the area. Outside of this, gusty winds will continue with a fairly steep pressure gradient associated with the upper-level trough passing through. Much of the area is reporting 10 to 20 mph sustained winds with occasional wind gusts upwards of 30 mph. This pressure gradient will linger into Saturday as the parent low pressure system moves off to the east, so expect some occasional 20 to 25 mph wind gusts to continue. High temperatures on Saturday will remain well below normal, with highs spanning the 60s. By Sunday and into next week, a weak upper-level ridge will begin to develop over the region with dry conditions persisting for the foreseeable future. LREF guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this dry pattern, with a general warming pattern through the week. Sunday morning will start off with some of the coolest temperatures we have seen so far this season, with many in the upper 30s to low 40s. For locations generally north of I- 40, temperatures may come close to Frost Advisory criteria. Latest NBM guidance does have about a 40 to 50% chance of locations falling below 37 degrees, so this will be something to watch with upcoming forecast packages. Despite the chilly start, temperatures will warm back into the 60s to near 70 by Sunday afternoon. Into the rest of next week, high temperatures will gradually rise a few degrees each day, likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Post-frontal low clouds will push south into the Mid-South overnight. There is a medium to high confidence that cigs will drop to MVFR after 17/04z. VFR conditions will return Saturday morning. Gusty north winds will prevail through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Fire danger concerns will exist across portions of the Mid-South through this afternoon, with relatively dry fuels and gusty winds. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN through 7 PM this evening. Minimum relative humidity values will once again be in the 30% to 40% range on Saturday, with continued wind gusts in the afternoon. By Sunday and into next week, while minimum relative humidity values will remain below 40%, wind speeds will generally remain light. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...SJM  798 FXUS61 KRNK 162353 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 753 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for late Saturday night through Sunday morning for the western mountain counties. Rainfall amounts have increased across the Piedmont and Southside today through tomorrow. Increasing chances for isolated to scattered showers in the Piedmont early next work week. Removed mention of "today" in the key messages in the AFD narrative. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and overnight, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. 2) Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and overnight, showers continue into Saturday early afternoon. Gusty winds tonight through Saturday. A cold front is progressing through the area, currently near a line from Hot Springs to Blacksburg to Boone, and is triggering some scattered showers. Additionally, in advance of the front in the more unstable air within portions of the Piedmont, a couple of thunderstorms have occurred. The 500mb trough will cross the area tonight, and so expect showers to linger during the overnight hours and through Saturday morning. As the main piece of energy moves to the east by the afternoon, showers will erode generally from west to east, leaving the rest of the day dry. Rainfall amounts have increased, mainly for the Piedmont and VA Southside, so could now see up to a half of an inch of rain for those areas, and between two to three tenths of an inch elsewhere. Wind gusts will continue to increase, peaking during the overnight hours tonight, and gradually diminishing by sunset Saturday, though shifting from the southwest to the northwest following the frontal passage. Gusts will be between 25 to 35 mph, locally higher along the ridges. Make sure to secure any outdoor Halloween decorations. KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost in the mountains Sunday morning. Confidence has continued to increase on the potential for areas of frost to develop in the mountains by Sunday morning, as high pressure behind the front settles over the Mid Atlantic with clearing skies and calmer winds. Highest confidence is over the westernmost counties in the mountains, from Greenbrier County WV to Watauga County NC, where look to fall to or just below freezing. The elevated valleys will be even more susceptible to frost, as the atmosphere decouples overnight. A Freeze Watch has been issued for those locations for late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Take steps now to protect cold sensitive vegetation. Not as high confidence in frost farther east, especially along the Blue Ridge, as there may be enough wind to keep the atmosphere mixed enough to keep temperatures above freezing. Sunday night into Monday morning will be cold as well, but not quite as cold. Still cold enough to warrant a heavier coat or an extra layer or two while waiting at the bus stop. After that, temperatures start to moderate towards normal for the rest of the week. Early next week, models are coming into consensus on a piece of energy aloft becoming cut off from the main trough as it tracks towards the coast, and a surface low developing along the front once it moves offshore; however, there is still plenty of disagreement in the eventual positioning of the upper cut off low. While any impacts will be mainly limited to the coasts, guidance has trended towards increasing rain chances for the Piedmont and Southside for the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong cold front will continue to progress east through the area, currently neara KTNB-KBCB-KHSP line. Along with deteriorating conditions, a sharp wind shift will also occur with the passage of the front. Scattered showers will also be associated with the front, and some showers and a few storms will be possible this evening mainly along and east of KSIF-KLYH line. Ceilings heights will decrease through the flight categories post cold frontal passage. Currently, primarily VFR conditions still prevail across the Piedmont region, but MVFR has become more common across the mountains. Look for a trend to IFR/MVFR across the mountains to low end VFR or MVFR across parts of the Piedmont. The lower ceilings and scattered showers will continue until the front's parent upper trough crosses the region Saturday morning. Once this feature crosses the region, look for a rapid increase to VFR conditions from west to east, and a cessation of the showers. A quick wind shift to northwest winds will occur behind the frontal passage this evening where it already has not already happened. Winds will remain gusty from the northwest...20-25kts through Saturday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Conditions will slowly improve through Saturday night as the front and low pressure move east into the Atlantic. Wind speeds will decrease Saturday evening to 10kt or less around sunset, going light/calm overnight. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional clouds and showers may return for the middle of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ007-009-010-012-015. NC...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ001-018. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/DS AVIATION...BMG/DS  816 FXUS63 KIWX 162354 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 754 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy through late evening, especially near Lake Michigan. Expect decreasing clouds and lows falling into the 30s. Patchy frost expected tonight for south central Lower Michigan into portions of northern Indiana. See the frost advisory for details. - Widespread frost is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark, especially east of Interstate 69. - After the below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures rebound back above normal for much of next work week with dry weather expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Showers associated with some strong low/mid level frontogenesis forcing will continue to exit northwest Ohio the remainder afternoon. The primary focus for additional rainfall will remain back across northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan where secondary surface trough associated with strong positively tilted upper trough is augmenting lake effect rain showers. The focus for these lake effect/enhanced rain showers will shift to northwest Indiana this evening as low level winds veer northerly behind the secondary sfc trough. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for LaPorte and Berrien Counties, although the window for 35 mph plus gusts may be confined to a 20 to 23Z timeframe. Boundary layer mixing may be tempered a bit by the very moist profiles in place, and thus confidence is beginning to diminish somewhat in realizing advisory level winds, particularly after 00Z as a lake-induced thermal trough is likely to sharpen and weaken the low level height gradient. At this time will continue the Wind Advisory and will defer to next shift to monitor for possible cancellation depending on how trends evolve. Lake effect rain showers may persist into the early overnight hours across northwest Indiana as thermal troughing response over southern Lake Michigan matures this evening. The positively tilted nature of the upper trough should allow for synoptic scale mid level subsidence to build in quickly later this evening and overnight resulting in expected diminishing cloud trend outside of lingering lake effect. Low levels should remain well mixed into the early evening hours with some better potential of decoupling overnight. This introduces the risk of some patchy frost development and temperatures dropping into the low-mid 30s tonight. The best chance of frost formation still appears to be across much of southern Lower Michigan into portions of north central Indiana situated between more delayed cloud cover decrease in the west with lake effect, and slightly better mixing persisting east of I-69 into the overnight. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday as the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be positioned downstream of broad longwave ridge axis across central CONUS allowing for extended synoptic scale subsidence. Sfc anticyclone will overspread the region late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with some lighter southwest return flow setting up across the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Frost/freeze potential will need to be considered again for this period. Some minor modification of low level thermal trough is expected Saturday but mainly clear skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling Saturday night and a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark. Best chances based on timing of the high pressure still appear to be east of I-69 where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Some combination of Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings will likely be needed Saturday night. Upper flow pattern will become more stagnant and blocked in nature for much of next week with little overall progression in mean positioning of central CONUS ridge. Gradual day to day moderation and max temperatures in upper 60s to lower 70s and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week. Cannot completely rule out some patchy frost concerns Sunday and Monday nights, but this is a low confidence item at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 747 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions through the period, with decreasing clouds and N-NW Winds tonight. There are a few lingering showers near KFWA and further southeastward, so maintained VCSH until 2Z with a tempo for showers/intermittent periods of less gusty winds as we decouple. Winds shift more N-NE at both sites, eventually becoming light and/or calm and variable on Saturday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for INZ005>009- 014-017-104-116-204-216. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...MCD  809 FXUS63 KLBF 162354 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 654 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning in effect tonight into Saturday morning for a large portions of western and north central Nebraska. This should lead to an end to the growing season. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns Saturday afternoon, for areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions Sunday and into next week, with highs ranging in the 60s and 70s. - Shower chances return Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight...surface high pressure centered over the area early this evening will settle southward across Oklahoma into northern Missouri. A light and variable wind will become light south later this evening, becoming south-southwest late tonight. Light winds beneath clear skies will allow for several hours of favorable radiational cooling this evening. Went colder using the BCConsshort, for lows in the mid to upper 20s across southwest, west central and central NE. As southerly winds increase after midnight, some gustiness will occur across north central NE where lows will range from 30 to the lower 30s. Most of the 12Z MOS guidance have lows tonight even colder in the low to mid 20s southwest and central NE areas. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into Saturday morning for areas near and easts of Highway 83. The cold temperatures should effectively end the growing season across western and north central Nebraska. Saturday/Saturday Night...An upper ridge will progress eastward across the Northern and Central Plains, as an upper trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan Canada. This will bring a notable warmup on Saturday to 70 to 75 across the western Sandhills to lower 60s central NE. Southwest winds will be gusty from 15 to 30 mph near and east of Highway 83. At least elevated fire weather concerns appear probable for areas west of Highway 83. While low humidity from 18 to 25 percent is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes across the west remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some mid 30s are likely in southwestern areas, northern Nebraska should hold in the low 40s. Sunday, A weak cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills. Highs will remain mild in the low 60s to near 70 with sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early to mid week, upper troughing will persist across the western U.S. with a closed low of the coast of southern California by Wednesday. Upper ridging will amplify across the Central U.S. Weak disturbances from the Desert Southwest into the CentraL Plains will bring some increase in clouds. Isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out Monday night through Wednesday, though the current forecast remains dry. Highs in the 60s Monday warm into the 70s by Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, the western US upper trough/closed low will advance east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This will bring continued highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday. Some threat for precipitation as well Thursday night into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored as the cold front interacts will some increase in Gulf moisture. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Oct16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Surface high pressure passing through will keep winds light and variable for the early part of the forecast period. Thereafter, winds will prevail out of the south to southwest with gusts nearing 25 knots in the afternoon Saturday under clear skies. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ005>010-024>029-035>038-057>059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...NMJ  985 FXUS61 KCLE 162359 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 759 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and gusty winds continue into Saturday in the wake of a cold front. 2) Dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure builds into the region. A Freeze Watch has been issued Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 MPH continue through this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped across the region. As the trough continues to sink south across Northern Ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect rain downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron tonight into early Saturday morning. Given the Lake Huron connection, the primary area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between the I-71 and I-77 corridors. Any remaining gusty winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure gradually builds into the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold conditions. Effective radiative cooling under the high on Saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the forecast area with the exception of Lake County and the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula and Erie County PA where lows may be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures will begin to moderate into early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the region. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The steadiest rain will slowly end from north to south over the next 3 hours as a sharp trough crosses the region. This will maintain mainly MVFR to low end VFR cigs and vis, with dips to IFR possible in the heaviest showers. Expect the bulk of the showers to be done by 03Z at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD with cigs slowly improving to mainly VFR, but a transition to narrow bands of lake-effect showers will keep lower cigs and vis and rain at times around KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG well into the overnight. These lake effect showers should stay west of KERI, so kept coverage at VCSH there overnight. The highest confidence for lake effect showers is in north central and NE Ohio overnight, but timing the brief bursts of heavier rain is uncertain. Overall, KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG will fluctuate most of the night from VFR and dry conditions to MVFR in rain. All sites should be dry and VFR by 12Z as high pressure builds in. Winds will sharply veer to N behind the trough this evening, with gusts up to 30 knots at times before N winds diminish to 5-10 knots by Saturday morning into the afternoon. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave heights up to 6-9 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the entire lake Saturday late morning and early afternoon. North winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots Saturday night into Sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet or less under high pressure. Light winds of 10 knots or less are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...13  943 FXUS61 KOKX 162357 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 757 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Aviation updated for 00Z TAFs. Freeze watch issued for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and interior southern CT for Saturday night. Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters beyond 20nm Saturday night, elsewhere Gale Watches converted to Small Craft Advisories tonight through Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through the area this evening preceded by a line of showers and a isolated thunderstorms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds late tonight into Saturday. 3) Coastal low to form along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday and to linger through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled in coordination with SPC. Thunderstorms have weakened over the last hour, with a notable decrease in lightning activity. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible, but scattered severe thunderstorms does not look to pose a threat any longer. The cold front is about halfway through the forecast area. The line of showers with an isolated thunderstorm along or just ahead of the front will continue moving east through eastern half of the forecast area tonight. The line will likely continue to weaken due to decreasing instability. What is left of the decaying line likely passes offshore in the 9 to 10 pm time frame. However, models continue to support of period of post-frontal rain after midnight across coastal locations with the approach of the upper trough and jet dynamics. The best chance at this time looks to be east of the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. Much of the rain will push east of the area by mid to late morning hours. Much colder air follows behind the cold front for the weekend with highs only getting into the 50s for Saturday, about 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NW winds develop late tonight with gusts 20 to 30 mph through the day Saturday before gradually subsiding Saturday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Freeze watch in effect Saturday night for portions of the interior as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the watch area area forecast to get close to freezing with the mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Should winds drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and frost may need to be expanded south. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front pushes through the terminals this evening. A mix of categories this evening with IFR or lower ahead of the cold front that is currently moving through. MVFR conditions along the showers associated with the cold front and immediately behind it. Eventually becoming VFR for most terminals overnight. Showers likely redevelop behind the front and move over eastern terminals overnight, mainly KGON and KISP, possibly KBDR. MVFR possible with these showers, otherwise VFR expected. SW winds ahead of the cold front shift to the WNW and NW behind the front and gust 20-25kt. Some localized gusts upwards of 30-35 kt possible in a heavier shower along and immediately behind the FROPA. NW gusts subside overnight but increase once again early Saturday with frequent gusts 25-30kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday-Monday: VFR. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a chance of NE wind G25-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch converted to SCA for all waters, except the outer ocean zones, where the gale watch has been delayed until Saturday night. Expect a prolonged period of rough conditions, particularly on the ocean waters through the period. A strong cold frontal passage this evening will result in a strong N flow later tonight through Saturday. Winds diminish some Saturday night on the non-ocean waters and the remaining waters on Sunday. However, due to low pressure nearly stationary along the Mid Atlantic Sunday into next week, there is the potential for gales on the ocean and SCA conditions elsewhere. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DW AVIATION...MW MARINE...DW