563 FXUS63 KDDC 162204 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 504 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight and a freeze warning is in effect. - A slow warming trend is expected starting Saturday, with highs reaching the lower 80s for mid to late next week. - There is a lot of uncertainty with rain chances and amounts for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The freeze watch was upgraded to a warning for tonight for all of central and western Kansas. South winds will return to far western Kansas toward morning; but light winds are expected for south central Kansas through sunrise. Therefore, temperatures may get as cold in the river bottoms near Dodge City, Cimarron and Jetmore as the traditionally colder spots in west central Kansas. The long term average first freeze date is 5 to 7 days earlier in the low lying areas than the hilltops. Thus, expect temperatures to be several degrees colder in these areas. Temperatures may stay several degrees warmer on the hill at the Dodge City airport where the official low temperature for Dodge City is taken. Broad southwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will return by this weekend and into next week, allowing for surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies, south winds and warmer weather. Expect highs in the 70s by Monday and lower 80s by Wednesday. A large upper level trough will form across the southwestern United States late next week; and this system will slowly progress eastward. However, this far west in the plains we generally need a slow moving upper level low that that has a closed circulation instead of a faster moving and open trough. In the latter scenario, the warm and moist southerly winds generally stay in eastern Kansas and points east; and this is why the winters are climatologically so dry here. The median precipitation for the 15-October to 28-February time frame (4.5 months) is only 3.1" at Dodge City. Additionally, another upper level trough is forecast to amplify across the eastern USA, forcing north winds and drier air into the tropics. So despite a return to south winds in western Kansas, north winds will persist at lower latitudes so that the return flow won't be as moist as one might expect. There may be enough instability for scattered showers and t-storms as the upper trough and associated cold front move east by Friday or Saturday; but widespread heavier rains are unlikely. This is especially true given the absence of a low level cold dome across the plains in advance of the upper trough that might promote moist ascent. That said, the arrival of this trough is still at least a week away; and there is plenty of time for a switch to a more robust solution. The grand ensemble shows even lower chances (10%) for .5" or greater of rain across southwest Kansas than it showed yesterday (15-25%). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR is expected through TAF pd as a dry airmass continues across southwest Kansas. A sfc high pressure center will shift across the terminals in the 03Z-06Z timeframe tonight. This will result in the breezy northerly winds becoming light and variable. This high pressure center will shift off to the southeast tomorrow. Winds will eventually become S to SW 10-15 kt by tomorrow after 14Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Sugden  250 FXUS65 KTWC 162213 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 313 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain below normal into next week. A strong surface high pressure area moving into the area will bring strong to very strong east to southeast winds today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging, and will likely be impactful to those with outdoor plans today and Saturday. There is also a 20-50 percent chance of rain Saturday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...The east wind event is well underway with max wind gusts since midnight ranging from 50 mph to a few isolated gusts of 80 mph. The strongest gusts 70-80 mph have all been on the northwest side of mountains, mainly in the Saddlebrooke area, Kielberg Canyon in the Galiuros, and in the Santa Ritas. These winds have also led to areas of blowing dust and haze across southeast Arizona. At the surface a very strong area of high pressure is centered over eastern Colorado and will slowly move southward. The pressure gradient will remain very strong over the region through Saturday afternoon then begin to weaken. There is also a cutoff low centered just off the coast of northern Baja that will remain over that general area into Sunday. This afternoon winds have weakened some thanks to daytime mixing and perhaps less mountain wave action as the ridgetop inversion weakens. However this will be shortlived as winds will increase again after the sun goes down with sustained speeds generally 30-45 mph and gusts 50-75 mph. Again the strongest winds are expected to be on the northwest side of mountain ranges as the inversion reasserts itself allowing for mountain wave trapping and downsloping. REFS probabilities for 65+ mph wind gusts for these areas this evening and tonight are 30-70 percent. No changes to the Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning. The HWW is in effect until 5 AM Saturday and Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 AM Saturday to 2 PM Saturday. The cutoff low near Baja has started to draw up moisture from the remnants of Simon as evidenced by showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing in northern Sonora. Hi-res models keep this activity south of the international border today, but can't rule out a weak shower or two over western Pima County this afternoon or evening. Saturday moisture continues to stream in and rain chances increase as the cutoff low edges eastward. Rain and thunderstorms chances will mainly be confined to areas from Tucson west Saturday. Sunday rain chances expand to cover most of southeast Arizona. QPF looks relatively light with totals Saturday-Sunday up to 0.25" possible. Next week the moisture sticks around and the closed low over Baja opens up and flattens out. At the same time a Pacific low moves into the Pacific Northwest then moves south along the west coast. This system will tap into the moisture leading to continued daily rain and thunderstorm chances for most of next week. Thanks to the progressive pattern high temperatures stay below normal over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z. Skies will be SKC for the majority of the fcst pd with FEW-SCT clouds 6k-10k from KTUS- KOLS W aft 16/21Z. However lofted dust to around 3k ft AGL will lead to reduced slantwise visibility through the overnight hours. SFC winds ELY/SELY 25-40 kts with gusts 45-60 kts. This will be a mountain-wave pattern, with very strong descending winds occuring on the leeward side of the higher terrain. Winds begin to slowly decrease after 17/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. Very strong east to southeast winds continue today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strongand potentially damaging. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will be susceptible to the strongest winds this morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-75 mph this evening and tonight, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 elsewhere. Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502-515. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  374 FXUS64 KLZK 162216 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 516 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Much cooler temperatures expected to continue this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas Sunday morning -Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible by the middle of next week -No significant rainfall is expected for the next week or so && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The breezy NW winds will gradually weaken this evening for most sites. Very dry air will remain across the area...keeping VFR condtions dominant. Winds may gust again on Sat afternoon...with the windier conditions over SERN sections. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 45 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 39 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 45 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 46 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 48 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 42 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 45 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 45 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 44 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 45 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 46 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...62  713 FXUS63 KDVN 162228 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 528 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning continues late tonight through 9 AM Saturday. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is possible again Saturday night but not as widespread. - A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong positively tilted upper wave is moving through the Upper Midwest, and positioned over our CWA as of Noon, and this is progressing quickly to the south and east. Cold air aloft has allowed for showers to be scattered through the area since early this morning, and the last of these moving through this afternoon are a bit stronger, with over 40 DBZ indicating downpours, and even possibly a bit of really small hail possible. However, the footprint of those heavy showers remains very very small. After 4 PM, this wave should be east of the region, with downward motion behind it helping scour out the cloud cover as we head into early evening. Frost and Freezing temperatures are both possible tonight, and no changes are anticipated to the ongoing headlines. Our forecast lows of 30 to 35 remain in the middle of a very tight ensemble distribution, and I see little potential to vary greatly from that. Sadly, this is not expected to kill the bugs, but could damage sensitive plants. With the loss of cloud cover, Saturday should be a much more pleasant day, though still dealing with a rather cold air mass. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are closer to the upper end of guidance values, but with the dry air in place, we should see the warmer end of guidance verify. Saturday night, light south winds will increase through the night, helping keep lows from getting too cold. Lows in the mid 30s support patchy frost in valley locations, but most spots will not see any impact. Sunday, the high pressure center will be near the Ohio Valley, with southwest/south winds and sunshine over our area. Lower 60s north, to upper 60s south are forecast, again supported by close guidance clustering. Winds do not appear much above 15 mph in the afternoon, so fire danger does not appear too high. Thankfully, in the days ahead, winds are forecast to remain lighter than Sunday, keeping fire danger at low end values. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal. Sunday night and continuing through the week a general warm- up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. Quiet weather is expected, with winds remaining below 15 mph most days, and highs remaining in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 524 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR will prevail through the period. The gusty north-northwest winds will subside early tonight as high pressure builds in and skies gradually clear out. Expect light and variable winds late tonight into the mid morning on Saturday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech  729 FXUS63 KPAH 162228 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 528 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal for mid to late week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 524 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A large shortwave trof aloft swings through the region today and behind it upper ridging builds in. We have a tight sfc pressure gradient today behind last night/this morning's cold front. This is leading to breezy northwest winds today with gusts up to around 25 mph at times. Significantly cooler temperatures today as well as we struggle to get out of the 50s. Winds are expected to remain breezy through most of tomorrow along with highs that will likely hover right around 60. Saturday night a potent sfc high slides through and off to the northeast by daybreak Sunday. With clear and calm to nearly calm conditions Saturday night, along with dewpoints in the 30s, we will likely see a first frost of the season across most of the CWA as lows dip into the 30s. There may even be some brief freezing temperatures in far west portions of the CWA. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed. With deep layer ridging in place for a little while, we can expect dry conditions and large diurnal temperature swings next week. Sunday kicks off a warming trend that will bring temperatures back up to normal and slightly above normal for mid to late week. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows will generally be in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 524 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong cold advection may agitate enough to produce -SHRA/-DZ to yield restricted vsbys along with the MVFR cigs/bases potential, at least for a few early evening hours; gusty nw winds continue likewise, before both ease off some overnight but linger nonetheless. Time/height cross sections suggest bases will scatter and clear by tmrw, particularly thru the planning phase hours of the forecast, as winds veer slightly thru the N/NE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  820 FXUS66 KLOX 162230 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 330 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...16/112 PM. Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period. At upper levels, low to the southwest will undercut the ridge this weekend. At the surface, offshore gradients will gradually weaken with weak onshore gradients returning Sunday and Monday. Forecast-wise for the short term, main issues remain Santa Ana winds and the heat. As mentioned, offshore gradients will continue through Sunday morning, but will exhibit a weakening trend. At the same time, the upper level support will also weaken. So, will expect the offshore winds to decrease. So, with the afternoon forecast, have extended the current WIND ADVISORIES through 200 PM Saturday. For the LA county mountains, will let the HIGH WIND WARNINGS continue through 800 PM this evening and have issued WIND ADVISORIES from 800 PM this evening through 200 PM Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday morning, the offshore winds should diminish below advisory levels with a return of weak onshore winds Sunday afternoon through Monday. The second concern is the heat. With the continued offshore flow, very warm conditions will persist through Saturday. Based on current Heat Risk forecasts, the coastal plain will continue at HEAT ADVISORY levels through Saturday evening. So, will continue with the HEAT ADVISORIES through 800 PM Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, a welcome cooling trend is expected with the return of onshore flow and lowering thicknesses. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/112 PM. For the extended period, models are in decent synoptic agreement through the period. Main feature of note will be an upper low, dropping south off the CA coast on Tuesday then moving inland across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Models differ slightly in the speed of this low moving across the area, but those differences should be minimal. So, forecast-wise, main concern in the extended period will be rain chances, associated with the upper low. Looking at the ensembles, most every member from every model indicates some amount of rain between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. However, the range of potential amounts remains quite large. At this time, ensemble means indicate totals between 0.25 and 1.00 inches which is a reasonable early estimate. There is about a 20-30% chance of totals greater than 1.00 inch. Will continue to monitor this situation closely as potential amounts are likely to change from day-to-day. Other than the rain chances, no significant issues are expected. Temperatures will experience a noticeable cooling trend with high temperatures only topping out in the 60s to lower 70s. At this time, no significant wind issues are expected. && .AVIATION...16/1644Z. At 16Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in VFR conditions, unless a fire breaks out upwind of an airport. NE-E winds will dominate the next 24 hours, with UDDF near any mountains and LLWS 10-20 knots near most airports, especially those with winds above 20 knots. Moderate confidence on wind forecasts (speed +/- 5 mph and direction +/- 30 degrees). KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no west influence. Moderate confidence in speed and timing. 60% chance of eastwinds in the 8-12 knot range from 18 to 24Z. LLWS 5-15 knots also possible in the 16Z-02Z window. East winds will go below 08 knots by 03Z. There is a 20% chance of east winds around 8 knots returning Saturday 16-20Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. High confidence in east winds dominating today with little to no south influence. LLWS 15-25 knots also possible at times in the 16Z-06Z window. && .MARINE...16/104 PM. NE to E winds will bring short period and hazard seas to many nearshore waters into Saturday. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica where winds where pockets of 20 to 30 knot winds will form at times. This is a touch lower than earlier today, so the previous Gale Warning has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Gusts of 10 to 20 knots will likely also affect the nearshore Central Coast waters as well as the waters from Orange County to Catalina Island. These winds will likely have rapid fluctuations. Benign conditions expected on Sunday. If you have the option, go out on Sunday and try to stay off the waters Friday and Saturday. Small Craft Advisory NW winds will increase Sunday Night and Monday, especially off the Central Coast. A moderate- strength storm system is becoming more likely in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER...16/329 PM. Santa Ana winds have peaked today, with gusts mostly in the 50 to 70 mph range across the LA/Ventura county mountains and foothills, while coastal and valley areas have gusted in the 35 to 55 mph range. For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara county mountains and Cuyama Valley, east winds have gusted between 30 and 45 mph today. The offshore winds will gradually subside in strength and areal coverage later this afternoon into tonight. By Saturday, offshore winds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph weaker in most areas as computed to today, mainly due to less upper level wind support. Meanwhile, temperatures have climbed to between 90 and 100 degrees for many coastal and valley areas today, with slight cooling expected on Saturday for coastal areas. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 8 to 20 percent range, with poor overnight recoveries. Cooler and more humid conditions are likely next week. Gusty southwest to northwest winds are expected Sunday and Monday, with light to moderate rain likely sometime Tuesday through Thursday. Current Red Flag Warnings remain on track. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as the mountains and foothills of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings are in place. Residents in high fire risk areas should be prepared in case a fire starts. Review your evacuation plans...what would you bring, where would you go. Stay extra aware of your surroundings. Make sure your vehicle is fueled up. For everyone, avoid using anything that could spark a fire. Be prepared for power outages that are likely over a good portion of our areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Thompson AVIATION...RK MARINE...RK FIRE...Gomberg/Kittell SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  004 FXUS64 KBRO 162235 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 535 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) across Deep South Texas into the weekend. - Northerly winds of 15-30 mph are expected to gust as high as 45 mph today into Saturday. - Low to medium (20-40%) rain shower chances along the cold front, mainly across the Valley and along the coast. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front moving through the region has prompted numerous weather hazards across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today into Sunday. These hazards include: a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the Valley before the front pushes through later this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible with the frontal passage, mainly along the coast. In wake of the front, a strong high pressure system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Winds could gust high as 45 mph this afternoon into tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron, and Hidalgo counties until 7 AM Saturday, and until 1 PM Saturday right along the coast. The drier air in wake of the front in combination with high winds has lead to a Red Flag Warning for all of Deep South Texas from 1 PM today until 7 AM Saturday. A Fire Danger Statement or another Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. The high winds also will lead to hazardous beach conditions with a High Risk of rip currents, Coastal Food Advisory and a High Surf Advisory in in effect until Sunday morning. Cooler overnight temperatures are expected through Saturday night with lows in the 50s across much of the region. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures will be back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the the early to middle part of next week. Rain chances return midweek along the coast a trough develops offshore. Chances remain low (20-30%). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Through 00z Sunday....VFR conditions will continue through the 00z TAF period with windy to breezy conditions continuing. Through tonight, it will remain windy with northerly winds 15-22 knots gusting as high as 35-40 kts. During the day on Saturday, winds will weaken as the day wears on, though still remaining breezy with northerly winds 10-15 knots gusting as high as 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds and hazardous marine conditions into Sunday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters until 1 PM Saturday. Expect seas of 11-16 ft and wind gusts to around 40kts. By Sunday winds and seas will become more favorable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454- 455. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  251 FXUS62 KMFL 162242 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 642 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across interior and Southwest Florida today. Isolated to scattered activity possible for Southeast Florida mainly in the morning hours. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. - Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions, with elevated seas and potential for Gale force winds later this weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Latest guidance still depicts a wet and breezy weekend across South Florida. Ahead of the front, very high PWATS between 2.1 and 2.3 inches over the east coast metro areas Saturday into Sunday morning before falling below 2 inches Sunday afternoon after the frontal passage. These PWATS values are above the 90th percentile which is 2 inches and is approaching the maximum PWAT values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches. With abundant moisture in place and light steering flow, any shower and storm that does develop could be very efficient rainmakers leading to localized flooding concerns across the east coast metro - especially between 2-8PM Saturday. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized maxima up to 6 inches are possible over the east coast metro areas this weekend, with highest totals expected across coastal Palm Beach County. With the grounds over metro areas of Palm Beach and Broward Counties getting close to being saturated, any heavy rainfall that does fall over these areas could lead to some minor flooding especially in low lying and flood prone areas. Only change with this forecast update is the addition of a Small Craft Advisory for all local waters beginning late Saturday through early Monday. Will continue to monitor the latest forecast on the heavy rainfall potential and for the potential upgrade of the Small Craft Advisory to a Gale Watch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today. As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly and steer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible. Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Primarily VFR conditions overnight with diminishing showers and storms. Light and variable flow overnight becomes weakly NNW by the mid afternoon hours with increasing chances for showers and storms over east coast sites by early evening. Lowering ceilings towards end of the period as front passes through, could be IFR at times, but still early so just beginning to show a trend lower at this time in TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARYPOINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 74 82 / 30 80 70 50 West Kendall 76 88 74 82 / 30 90 70 50 Opa-Locka 77 88 74 82 / 30 80 70 50 Homestead 77 88 74 83 / 30 80 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 87 74 82 / 40 80 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 87 74 82 / 40 90 80 50 Pembroke Pines 76 88 73 82 / 30 80 70 50 West Palm Beach 76 86 73 82 / 50 90 80 40 Boca Raton 76 87 73 82 / 40 90 80 50 Naples 75 84 69 82 / 50 70 40 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ610-650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto  305 FXUS63 KSGF 162244 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, on Saturday and especially Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview: Satellite imagery nicely shows an upper-level trough swinging through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this afternoon with a prominent cold front draped southward from the parent surface low in southern Quebec. Breezy northwest winds behind this front have been aiding in cold air advection across the Missouri Ozarks. At the surface, a layer of dry air persists with dew point depressions around 15 degrees across the region. At the 850 mb level, greater saturation is allowing a mid-level cloud deck to fill in, with even a few weak echoes being observed on radar. Blustery Fall Day: The cold air advection and cloud deck will prevent much warming today, capping high temperatures in the mid 50s. Furthermore, the increased pressure gradient on the backside of the aforementioned trough is producing frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, making conditions feel a bit blustery--especially compared to the heat as of late. A fairly shallow saturated layer around 900 to 800 mb may allow for a few topographically aided sprinkles across the Ozarks this afternoon, but minimal if any accumulations will come of it. Frost Potential Saturday and Especially Sunday Morning: Clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight into Saturday morning. As they do, winds will also begin to weaken. These more favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across northwest portions of the forecast area tonight. There may be a brief 1-2 hour window where skies are clear enough, temperatures are cold enough, and winds are light enough that some patchy frost could develop, but overall the better conditions will be across central and northern Missouri. Confidence in frost development is higher Sunday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds. Model probabilities of temperatures 35 deg or less (a proxy for frost potential) are highest across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri, ranging between 60-95%. Here, frost is more likely to be widespread. The footprint of probabilities of temperatures 32 deg or less is smaller--roughly limited to the valleys of the eastern Ozarks--ranging between 30-50%. Elsewhere, patchy frost will still be possible as probabilities range between 25-50%. A Frost Advisory may be needed in a future forecast update. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term forecast is characterized by the return of dry and increasingly warm conditions. Ensembles show agreement in developing a broad, amplified ridge across the central CONUS next week as a trough digs through the Pacific coast. This means the return of southerly winds, warm air advection, ample sunshine, and by mid- week, the return of above-average temperatures. Indeed, small NBM temperature spreads lend themselves to high forecast confidence && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds will break up and shift south of the region overnight into Saturday morning. As the same time, northwesterly winds will decrease and shift to the northeast after 12Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio  310 FXUS64 KAMA 162244 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Windy conditions continue today with gusts up to 45 mph expected. - Freezing temperatures are likely across most of the combined Panhandles Saturday morning. Frost development is also expected areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface pressure gradient remains tight today as a cold airmass settles in and cold air continues to push southward. Strong, northerly flow will keep highs bound to the 50s today. Wind gusts in some areas this afternoon could get as high as 45 mph, but are more likely to stay in the 30-40 mph range. Tonight, a surface high moves across the southern High Plains and will sharply drop wind speeds. This combined with clear skies will lead to radiational cooling across the CWA. Freezing temperatures and frost development are expected as a result. The NBM and HiRes models suggest temperatures should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s across the north, while the south will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure does not stay settled over the region. Later in the afternoon on Saturday, a surface low will setup over southeast CO. As a result, wind speeds will ramp up in our northwest zones. However, the wind direction will return to southwesterly flow across the whole area. Highs tomorrow will increase to the upper 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60s more likely where winds are strongest in the north. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Long range models are still honing in on the details of our next impactful upper level system. A deepening trough in the northern Pacific will eventually transitions south into the western CONUS. Before then, a weak cutoff low will move into the Plains and aid in moisture advection and create positive vorticity in our CWA for the start of the new workweek. Since this first system is weaker and further west than previous model runs, PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday are decreasing in the Panhandles and are more focused on the states to our west. The main system is now not expected to impact the High Plains until later in the week and into next weekend. The current NBM and LREF ensemble members show increasing rain chances Thursday onward, but there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding QPF. The latest ensemble guidance has higher chances for 24 hour QPF less than 0.1" and much lower chances for 24 hour QPF greater than 0.5" for the late week. Of course, with the highest impacts from this system more likely 7 days out, there still time for the details to become more resolved concerning this system's potential. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites. Winds will weaken into the evening becoming light and variable until late tomorrow morning where they increase enough to be menitonable in the TAFs. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>014- 016>018-317. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ015-019-020. OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52  574 FXAK69 PAFG 162247 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... -Isolated to scattered light snow showers are possible through Sunday night. *Accumulation totals light in areas of lower elevations. Higher elevations could see snow totals up to 3 inches by Sunday. -High Temperatures could drop to below freezing through Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving through this weekend. *The coolest temperatures mostly in Central Interior. West Coast and Western Interior... -Rain/snow showers possible through the weekend, with low stratus and patchy morning fog likely in the West Coast. -Wind gusts will weaken for the Western Interior through Friday evening, while weaker gusts along the West Coast persist through Friday night. -Temperatures along the West Coast will average in high 20s and low 30s through Sunday, while the Western Interior will trend slightly cooler with temperatures ranging between mid to upper 20s. North Slope and Brooks Range... -A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect till 4pm Friday for the Northeast Arctic Coast due to visibility restrictions from blowing snow. *Visibility could drop to as low as 1/2 a statute mile. -Northeasterly gusty winds along the Arctic Coastline will persist taper-off through the evening hours. -Light snowfall is expected to continue throughout the North Slope and Brooks Range throughout the weekend, with total accumulations between 1 to 3 inches expected. Areas of higher terrain may see higher accumulations. && .SYNOPSIS..The western coastal areas are expected to continue to receive breezy conditions through Friday night while it is expected to stay breezy for the Arctic Coast through Saturday. Into Saturday morning, some snow accumulations on the lighter-side(up to 1-3 inched in total look to occur mainly for much of the Central & Western Interior & the Eastern Brooks Range from trofing over that area. For the eastern Brooks Range & the eastern North Slope, that trofing also looks to bring some occasional light snowfall into Saturday morning. As temperatures remain well below freezing for the & gusty winds remain in place primarily for the eastern North Slope through Friday afternoon, visibility-reducing(as low as 1/2 SM) blowing snow will occur. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for that through Friday afternoon. Rather gusty winds look to move back in for the West Coast & the Arctic Coast starting late Saturday night & lasting through Sunday night as lower pressure to the southwest & northwest(an arctic cold front to the northwest & Bering Sea low to the southwest) approaches a ridge of high pressure that will be situated over the state, tightening the pressure gradient. That ridge will shift eastward into next week. The arctic front approaching the region from the northwest will will bring temperatures down to more seasonable values for this time of year for this weekend & keep them that way into next week. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...A SFC low located over the north-central Gulf of Alaska today will generally drift eastward through Saturday while steadily weakening. It has sent shortwave trofs of energy rotating northwestward around it. One is situated stretched out over portions of the western & central Interior & the eastern Brooks range, today. It has brought with it enough moisture for some increased chances for some light snowfall for that area into Saturday. The far western portions of the Interior, the west coast, & far southeastern portions of the Interior are expected to stay on the drier side through the period. Total snow accumulations are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches with the Fairbanks area expected to receive less than 1/2 inch late Friday night through Saturday morning. The light snow could mix with some light rain this afternoon into the evening, especially for areas around the Interior that have reached above freezing this afternoon. The blowing snow over the Beaufort Sea Coast caused by the tightened pressure gradient between higher pressure to the north & lower pressure to the south & the temperatures remaining well below freezing is expected to subside through this evening due to the pressure gradient relaxing causing the winds to decrease. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow is being allowed to expire. A tightened gradient will also continue to cause some gusty conditions into Friday night along the West Coast from higher pressure located to the west. As we approach the later parts of the short term forecast period, an arctic front will approach from the northwest, which will cool high temperatures around 5 degrees over the Interior on average from the upper 30s to around 40 to the low to mid 30s for the weekend. && .LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The Arctic front pushing southeastward that was talked about in the short term section will bring temperatures down to more around normal/seasonable values over our entire area of responsibility. As we progress through the long term forecast period & approach mid-week, ensembles indicate that the approaching Bering Sea low center will miss our region to the south, moving eastward more toward the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area & the northern Gulf of Alaska. This continues the general current weather pattern that has already been in place, a SE to NW moving warm front & shortwaves wrapping around the parent low located in the northern Gulf, bringing breezier/gustier conditions & some snow to the Alaska Range, the Interior area, & the West Coast. The biggest difference is that when this low enters the northern Gulf, it looks to be a bit stronger & have an Atmospheric River associated with it, which may bring enough moisture to bring appreciable snowfall to the Alaska Range & have enough moisture associated with it to override the shadowing/downsloping effects from the Alaska Range to even bring the Interior areas some appreciable snowfall, perhaps the most snow we have seen, so far, this season. Aside from the West Coast, temperatures may struggle to make it above the freezing mark from the latter half of the weekend & lasting at least into next week as is indicated by 850mb model forecast temperatures getting about 5 degrees Celsius colder than the current values. Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal flooding concerns are anticipated at this time... && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ804-805. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 814-815-854-861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 805-806-813-852-853-856-860. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811- 850. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 814-859-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815- 861. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815-860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ855. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ860. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Chambers SYNOPSIS...Chambers SHORT TERM...Chambers LONG TERM...Chambers COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Chambers  590 FXUS63 KOAX 162248 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire area from late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temperatures could be as low as 29 degrees by Saturday morning. - There is a low chance (20-40%) of fog Saturday morning. With freezing temperatures possible, slick spots may develop, especially on area bridges and overpasses. - Warmer temperatures return late this weekend through next week. Dry conditions continue with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms not anticipated until later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 My previous discussion from earlier this week was talking about the Summer-like temperatures and this discussion will focus on our potential first freeze of the Fall season. It appears to be a tale of two seasons. The large upper-level low pressure that brought us the much colder temperatures continues to slowly move off to the northeast. On the backside of the low, a tight pressure gradient is resulting in gusty north winds late this morning into this afternoon. Due to continued cold-air advection, temperatures struggle to warm into the 50s with a wind chill in the 40s. Thankfully the winds do not linger. Surface high pressure begins to settle into the area this evening, causing winds to become light in response. With the center of the surface high pressure over the region Saturday morning and clear skies, our coldest temperatures so far this season develop. Widespread near and below-freezing temperatures are anticipated with a low chance (10-20%) a few localized areas reaching a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). Due to these temperatures, the entire area is under a Freeze Warning from late tonight into Saturday morning. Outside of the temperatures, the light winds should allow for frost development. In addition, enough lingering moisture may result in patchy, shallow fog. While visibility reductions should be minor, this fog could cause a thin glaze of ice to form on elevated surface, especially bridges and overpasses. That said, this threat is low (20-40% chance), but use caution on your morning drive. The cold weather remains short-lived as upper-level ridging resumes Saturday afternoon with increasing southwest winds. The increasing upper-level heights and warm southwest winds are forecast to help push temperatures back into the upper 50s to near 60, despite the cold start. This warming trend will continue into next week with dry conditions continuing. High temperatures climbing back into the 60s on Sunday, push 70 by Tuesday, and well into the 70s by mid-week. While our weather remains mostly quiet, an active pattern begins to take shape for the CONUS late next week. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge will slide east as long-wave troughing returns to the western CONUS. Within this troughing, several weaker shortwaves lift northeast throughout the week. These may result in a low chance of rain. Our next best chance of rain is not set to arrive until late in the week as another upper-level low pressure takes shape to our southwest. Showers and thunderstorms may be possible as this system approaches the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly clear skies expected overnight with winds out of the north weakening, becoming nearly calm by 06Z. Patchy fog may develop in low-lying areas but we don't anticipate any of this impacting the terminals. Winds increase out of the south Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...McCoy  620 FXUS66 KPDT 162249 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 349 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High winds and low RH into the evening for Grande Ronde Valley with red flag conditions, with winds persisting through Saturday morning. - Up to a tenth of an inch of rain for the Cascade Crests Saturday (50-70% confidence). - Uncertainty going into next week with another weather system pushing through the area, bringing possible precipitation (10-20% confidence). && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite and radar imagery show clear skies with scattered cirrus clouds over most of the regions, with clouds increasing towards the afternoon. The Grande Ronde region currently has surface observations of 15-20% RH with 20-35kt wind speeds with gusts of up to 40kt. With the NAM and NCEP showing a large pressure gradient of 4-7mb until Saturday morning, continuing windy conditions of 20kt and gusts up to 30kt overnight into Saturday morning. Maximum temperatures were higher than previously forecasted and are now around the mid to upper 70's. A red flag warning has been issued until the early evening for the Grande Ronde Valley. Saturday shows the emergence of a shortwave trough that will bring precip of up to a tenth of an inch (50-70% confidence) for the Cascade Crests. Along with the shortwave, a 850mb jet streak will bring breezy winds along the Kittitas Valley and parts of the Columbia Basin. The NBM advertises medium confidence (30 -60%) of wind speeds > 20mph for Ellensburg and lower confidence (40%) for the Lower Columbia Basin. Guidance is in good agreement that on Sunday an upper level trough descends into a low level pressure system that will be off the coast by Monday night. Monday night the clusters show uncertainty on the exact strength of how deep the low extends but is in agreement with the timing and position of the low as it travels southward. Tuesday into Wednesday shows split flow emerging over the region with uncertainty present with the strength and timing of the low, with models split between the low being just offshore (49%) or starting to enter southern California (51%). Thursday into Friday shows general agreement for the low moving through California that advertises chances for wrap around precipitation to occur through the CWA with low confidence(10-20%). Going into Friday shows low confidence chances for precipitation isolated within the Cascades and The Wallowas(10-20% confidence) as the models are largely uncertain to the strength of the flow over the Pacific NW and the remaining signal from the low pressure system in the Southwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Conditions will be VFR across the terminals for the duration of the TAFs. Diurnally driven winds under 10 knots become more westerly to southwesterly with gusts up to 20 kts after about 15 to 17Z at DLS/PDT/RDM/ALW. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 43 69 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 70 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 39 72 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 43 70 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 41 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 40 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 35 67 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 70 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 47 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ694. && $$ DISCUSSION...07/95 AVIATION...21/71  798 FXUS61 KGYX 162254 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 654 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were needed with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. An approaching cold front continues rain chances into this evening with a couple of gusty thunderstorms possible in southern NH. 2. A seasonably cold airmass and gusty winds arrive behind the cold front to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface low pressure will track roughly along or just south of the St. Lawrence River Valley and drag a strong cold front through New England this evening into tonight. Out ahead of the front, it's currently pretty dreary out in most places with overcast skies and fog, rain and drizzle. Temperatures have started to trend up slowly as southerly flow increases, and a warm front has made its way into southern NH, where temperatures have warmed into the lower 60s of 2pm. The steadier rain is currently north across central and northern portions of the area, but looking upstream, more showers are on the way for later this afternoon and early evening as the cold front approaches. CAMS are showing a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE that may be sufficient for a couple of thunderstorms across the southern half of NH and into far southwest ME. Chances appear low, but if any storm that develops can become surface-based, there is enough wind shear for strong wind gusts. The better chance of this occurring is across southern NH, which SPC has placed in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather. Showers are expected to end from west to east this evening, and roughly another 0.10" of 0.25" precipitation between now and then. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Northwest winds become breezy behind the front late this evening and continue through tonight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Based on hi-res guidance, these breezy conditions should kick in late evening to around midnight. These winds will carry in a much colder airmass, and upslope mountains rain showers are expected to transition to snow showers overnight, which should continue into at least the first part of Saturday. Increasing Froude numbers tonight/early Saturday could result in some clouds and possibly a couple of rain or snow showers spilling over downwind of the mountains if we can hold onto enough low level moisture. The combination of temperatures falling into the 30s to low 40s and gusty winds will make for wind chills in the 20s and 30s toward daybreak Saturday, possibly teens across the north. Cold air advection continues into Saturday, making it feel rather blustery out. Temperatures only recover somewhat into the 40s south of the mountains, but breezy NW winds of 25-35 mph will keep wind chills mostly in the 30s. Across the north, winds chills are expected to stay below freezing through the day. One silver lining is that a push of drier air will bring mostly sunny skies downwind of the mountains by the afternoon while diminishing clouds/upslope precip in the mountains. For hikers: Conditions will be dangerous and wintry in the higher terrain. In addition to snow showers, winds will be much higher and and temperatures much colder, making for winds chills in the single digits to possibly below zero above tree line. Winds will diminish Saturday night as high pressure builds overhead, bringing favorable conditions for radiational cooling. I've gone a cooler than the NBM on low temperatures with most of the area seeing lows in the 20s and possibly teens in the the northern valleys. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests overhead on Sunday which should allow for a warmer feeling day as winds calm. Under full sun we should be able to mix into the low 50s south of the mountains, and into the mid to upper 40s to the north. Clear and calm conditions continue into Sunday night setting up for strong radiational cooling. I have gone ahead and already started to capture that trend by blending colder MOS guidance into the NBM. The result is widespread temperatures in the 20s with only the immediate coast hovering near or above freezing. The center of the high pressure moves off to the east Monday but for the most part should stay nosed in for the better the part of the day resulting in mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures mixing into the mid to upper 50s for the majority of the area. At the same time low pressure develops off the coast of the Carolinas where it looks like it is going to meander into midweek. It may meander just far enough north Monday night to spread some high and mid-level clouds into the coastal plain and potentially up to the foothills. If it is just mostly high clouds we could see another night with decent radiational cooling, but if the trend continues to bring it further north and more midlevel clouds make it as well it will remain warmer. As a result we will roll with NBM for now which is a smattering of upper 20s to low 30s for much of the area, and upper 30s in southeastern New Hampshire. High pressure begins to push low pressure back to the south during the day Tuesday which is going to bring about clearing skies, and probably the warmest day of the week with widespread low 60s. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions then continue as high pressure crests over the region again Wednesday and lasts through at least the day Thursday. Late week there is some suggestion for another area of low pressure to interrupt the pattern again, but models are all over the place on where it forms and how it tracks, so it is really just worth only a brief mention until there is better agreement and/or a clear trend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Very low CIGs and Fog is being reported across NH and Maine. South of the mountains, restrictions will gradually improve overnight once a frontal passage moves through. Restrictions may be slower to improve north of the mountains, with upslope rain and snow showers potentially keeping visibility and ceilings more restricted near HIE and LEB. VFR returns for Friday morning, but northwesterly winds could be gusty, with gusts of 25-30kts likely across NH and gusts of 30-35kts likely north and east of PWM. These winds look to diminish just after sunset on Friday. Outlook: Rest of Saturday: VFR with northwest wind gusts 25-30 kt, possibly up to 35 kt. Saturday night: VFR with lighter winds. Sunday-Wednesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Through Saturday night...SCA conditions continue through Saturday evening. South to southwest winds persist across the waters into early this evening ahead of a cold front but will quickly turn to the northwest later in the evening and into the early part of tonight behind the front. Brisk northwest flow continues on Saturday, and then winds become northerly and start to diminish late in the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds and seas further diminish Saturday night. Sunday-next week...There is still some uncertainty regarding track of a low pressure system expected to develop off of the coast of the Carolinas next week. There is potential for this to push a 5 to 7 ft swell into the gulf of Maine for the first half of the week, but if high pressure remains dominant and this low remains suppressed conditions would likely be calmer. Late week is also uncertain as additional low pressure may form east of the Gulf of Maine. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs AVIATION...Palmer MARINE...  840 FXUS63 KAPX 162255 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 655 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy with lingering shower chances into this evening. - Breezy to windy again at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday. - Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our north. Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide (highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through early Saturday morning. More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low- mid 60s across much of northern lower. This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 NNW flow lake effect rain (snowflake?) showers continue into the evening but should largely taper off by 4-6z. A few showers could linger toward CIU/APN or TVC a bit longer, and possible we see another uptick in shower activity around 8-12z before things clear out. Winds generally back to NW and W overnight, dropping to 5-12kts with gusts under 20kts, turning to the SW after 12z and increasing to 10-15kts again, gusting 20-30kts by afternoon; could go light and vrb overnight and if so, not impossible some fog could develop but not overly confident except perhaps for TVC. Cigs will flirt with MVFR thru tonight; VFR expected for Saturday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...FEF