171 FXUS66 KOTX 162121 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 221 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. - Cold temperatures with frost expected across much of the region for Sunday morning. - Dry weather continues through at least the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures && .SYNOPSIS... Friday will remain dry with mild temperatures and light winds. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will develop with the passage of a cold front. Little to no precipitation will occur with the front and dry conditions expected through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures cooling to near normal over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will be displaced to east of region heading into the overnight period. Moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will spread high level clouds across the region. Otherwise, moisture will be lacking ahead of this front will little to no precipitation expected; the Cascade crest will see light precipitation with it and that's about all. The front will bring significant cooling and tighten the westerly gradient with winds picking up throughout the day on Saturday. Westerly winds sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-35 mph will be common across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin. Peak wind speeds will be achieved in the afternoon before relaxing quickly as the sun sets in the evening. Light weight objects may be blown around if not secured (e.g. Halloween decorations). Patchy blowing dust is also possible near recently worked fields, but much of the crops planted this time of year have been done so already and the expectation is that the risk of blowing dust is decreasing compared to late September into early October. Winds may also result in choppy lakes that pose a risk for those on small crafts. Sunday night through Wednesday night: Shortwave ridging of high pressure then builds in behind the exiting cold front by Sunday. There will be a considerable amount of drier air that pushes in behind the cold front on Saturday. A clear night with dry air in place will result in strong radiational cooling as winds weaken. Low temperatures Sunday morning figure to be on the chilly side. Temperatures in the northern mountain valleys are expected to cool down into the upper 20s, especially for the colder more sheltered areas. Much of the Columbia Basin is expected to see temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. This will lead frost formation and anyone that protected plants from the freezing temperatures earlier in the week should plan to cover sensitive vegetation Sunday night as well. Areas at the tail end of the growing season that may see frost Sunday morning includes the Wenatchee Area and Moses Lake Area. The Lewiston-Clarkston Valley is less likely to see temperatures cold enough for frost as dew points are expected to be above freezing with lows closer to around 40 degrees. The weather then remains dry heading through the first part of next week. An upper level trough deepens in the eastern Pacific with a low closing off but it will dig far enough south to primarily bring precipitation to California by Tuesday into Wednesday. The Northwest will be under split flow with the northern branch of the jet stream directing moisture into British Columbia. Winds remain light and temperatures near normal. Thursday into Friday: The upper level low that pushes into California looks to eject northeast across the Great Basin and may spread light precipitation primarily over the Idaho Panhandle by Thursday. We also may see light precipitation across the Cascade crest at this time with snow levelsdropping down to around 5,000 feet Thursday night. There is the potential for a light dusting of snow in the mountains in the Cascades. The probability of any precipitation to occur over the Cascade crest and in the Idaho Panhandle is between 30-40%. Not impactful precipitation by any means and not expected to produce much wetting precipitation as well. The dry start to our fall looks to continue and it isn't helping with the ongoing drought situation that we are seeing across the region. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A cold front will approach the Northwest Region today. Drier easterly winds ahead of the front will promote VFR conditions with some high level cirrus clouds filtering across. Winds will be particularly breezy at KPUW sustained at 15-18 kts into the early afternoon (until 21Z) before decreasing a bit later on. Cold front passage will be in the late morning on Saturday between 15-18Z at KEAT and KMWH to early afternoon 18Z-22Z at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. A brief period of low level wind shear is expected at KPUW between 15-17Z Saturday morning before westerly winds aloft are able to mix down to the surface. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 44 64 35 59 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 42 63 35 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 64 36 61 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 44 71 41 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 67 29 61 32 61 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 61 32 58 35 60 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 43 61 36 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 39 68 31 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 66 36 61 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 33 61 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  337 FXUS63 KIND 162124 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 524 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds gusting to between 25 and 35 mph this afternoon into tonight. - Scattered showers mainly late this afternoon into early tonight. - Patchy frost possible tonight, mainly sheltered locations north of Indy. - Widespread frost Saturday night with sub-freezing temps possible. - Freeze Watch issues for northeastern counties Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold air advection is ongoing following a cold frontal passage last night. Temperatures have been falling through the daylight hours as northwesterly winds gust to between 20-30 mph. Little additional temperature recovery is anticipated and our highs for the day are likely to have already occurred. Persistent low cloud cover will help today feel quite miserable after the prolonged stretch of warm weather we have seen. Aloft, a potent but positively-tilted trough is diving in from the north. This feature will steepen lapse rates while propelling a secondary front southward. Lapse rates could steepen even more immediately down wind of Lake Michigan as flow passes over the warmer water, increasing boundary layer temps by a few degrees. A band of scattered showers is likely this evening in conjunction with these features. Best timing brings showers to the Lafayette area around 5-6pm with activity reaching Indy by 7-8pm, and eventually Bloomington by 9-10pm. Shower activity could be briefly heavy, but overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. Winds are expected to become northerly behind the secondary front. Speeds and gusts are also expected to increase, with gusts this evening between 25 to 35 mph possible. The upper trough departs overnight and a quick reduction in winds appears likely tonight. Guidance is in good agreement showing speeds dropping to under 15 mph by sunrise. Combined with clearing skies, winds may become calm enough to allow for patchy frost north of Indy overnight mainly in sheltered areas. Overall, our current thinking is winds remain elevated just enough to prevent widespread frost. As such, a Frost Advisory was not issued for tonight. Nevertheless, we introduced the mention of patchy frost in rural areas over the northern parts of our CWA. As surface high pressure builds in on Saturday, the clearing trend continues with winds becoming calm by sunset. Temperatures likely remain suppressed somewhat due to waning cold air advection. Highs only in the 50s are probable despite a return to sunshine. By Saturday night, ideal radiative cooling conditions will be in place. Temperatures in the 30s are very likely with widespread frost. Northeastern portions of our CWA may even dip into the low 30s or upper 20s. We have issued a Freeze Watch for these northeastern areas Saturday night into Sunday morning. Depending on how the surface high sets up, the Freeze Watch may need to be expanded in further updates. Similar conditions are likely Sunday night with areas of frost likely, especially in rural locations. NEXT WEEK Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing surface high pressure remaining in place through at least mid next week...possibly even the entire week. Aloft, troughing is replaced by ridging. These two factors point towards a warming trend through next week. The warming should be gradual, as the advective component is not there. Highs rebound into the 70s which is a far cry from the near 90 readings we saw a few days ago. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 524 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings through tonight. - Wind gusts 20 to 30 knots through 04Z. - Rain showers possible this evening with minimal VIS impacts. Discussion: GOES19 imagery shows abundant cold air advection strato CU streaming across Indiana. Radar showing some rain showers within the cyclonic flow streaming toward IND and BMG. A moderate pressure gradient across the area was continuing to allow gusts to 20-25 knts. As daytime heating is lost this evening and the cyclonic flow lessens, winds will slowly subside and clouds should begin to show some breaks, as seen on upstream on GOES19 over NRN IL and WI. Thus have included some VCSH for the first few hours to account for the approaching showers. Overnight skies will be trended to VFR as strato cu is expected to dissipate as high pressure arrives from the west. Forecast soundings on Saturday continue to show a dry column as the high pressure system arrives, leading to VFR conditions and lighter winds. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ030-031-037>042-048-049-056-057-065. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Eckhoff  403 FXUS65 KPSR 162127 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 225 PM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories continue across portions of the region through Saturday morning with gusts occasionally over 35 mph resulting in areas of blowing dust and difficult travel for high profile vehicles. - A slight chance of light rain will arrive into parts of south- central Arizona over the weekend with the better chances focused over higher terrain locations. - A Pacific low pressure system moving into the Southwest during the middle of next week will lead to much better rainfall chances with the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms, as well as cooler temperatures && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... As full latitudinal troughing deepens over the eastern Conus, a mature high amplitude Rex block remains established over the western half of the country. This pattern continues to promote strong sfc high pressure over the central Rockies/high plains, and combined with inverted low pressure emanating from the Gulf of California, an intense pressure gradient has developed across the CWA. An H9-H8 30- 50kt easterly LLJ has weakened early this afternoon as the thermal enhancement has deteriorated, but lingering gusty winds and lofted dust will continue to impacts many areas through the overnight. While lower elevations will experience partial decoupling and much weaker winds after sunset, ridge tops and the typical wind prone areas will likely continue to record gusty winds pushing advisory criteria through the overnight. The combined effect of a significantly loosened pressure gradient and thicker clouds compromising mechanical mixing will preclude advisory criteria beyond Saturday morning. The aforementioned Rex block will slowly open this weekend with the negative height anomaly propagating from southern California into northern Arizona. This places south-central Arizona within a very favorable left front jet quadrant with a weak cold core skirting the forecast area indicative of periods of robust ascent. The underlying southwest flow will also concurrently import thick moisture through the H7-H5 layer such that total column PWATs reach 1" by Saturday afternoon. While these parameters would generally support widespread light rain, a very dry sub-cloud layer resulting from the persistent downsloping easterly winds will battle the ability for precipitation reaching the ground. Nevertheless, given the ascent structure and magnitude of midlevel moisture, some light showers should reach the surface Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with the best chances over higher terrain areas east of Phoenix where sfc to cloud base depths are minimized. Otherwise, partial clearing will slowly advance through the forecast area Sunday with moisture and ascent lifting into northern Arizona. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... The ridge comprising the northern portion of the Rex block will push eastward early next week as the upper low weakens into an open wave and becomes absorbed into the mean southwest flow. Lingering light showers may continue to affect orographically favored areas of the eastern CWA Monday aided by the next piece of subtropical jet energy rounding towards the Southwest from the eastern Pacific. If activity does develop, total accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal. By Tuesday, deep troughing and strong negative height anomalies will amplify and intensify along the west coast, however confidence is exact the timing and depth of this feature remains low to moderate. As a result, notable forecast temperature spread exists during the middle of next week, in addition to uncertainty in rainfall timing and amounts. At this time, the preponderance of model evidence points towards Wednesday and Thursday as the most likely to experience showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the trough passage and the introduction of much cooler, below normal autumnal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1805Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Strong gusty E'rly winds and slantwise visibility reductions due to lofted dust will persist through the rest of the day. E'rly winds will continue to gust consistently up to 20-30 kts, with occasional stronger gusts up to 35 kts, through this afternoon. Strong gustiness should subside tonight at most terminals, but elevated surface speeds in the teens will likely prevail through the overnight hours, with an occasional gust into the 20s. Gusts to 30 kts will still be possible at KSDL after midnight. All terminals will see a resurgence of gusts up to 23-30 kts Saturday morning, but then winds will gradually subside through Saturday afternoon. Slantwise visibility impacts are likely through at least Saturday morning. Thick mid and high cloud decks will spread into the area through the day Saturday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy conditions through this afternoon will be the main aviation concern. North-northeast flow will be common throughout the period, with periodic gusts upwards of 25 kts (occasionally higher) at KBLH and slightly weaker at KIPL. Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing mid to high clouds through the afternoon at KIPL and by this evening at KBLH. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out overnight, but chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong east winds will continue through Saturday across southern Arizona with the most pronounced gusts over mountain tops of eastern districts during the overnight and early morning hours. Gusts 40-45 mph may be common over these locations with a portion of these winds building into lower elevations by late morning. Speeds will slowly decrease through the day with even weaker winds Sunday through the middle of next week. Light showers are possible this weekend, and particularly over eastern districts, but the chance for wetting rain is low (~10%). The strong east winds will result in minimum humidity levels 20-30% Saturday, but increasing closer to a 30-50% range thereafter. Overnight recovery should be good to excellent. A Pacific weather disturbance will bring increased chances of wetting rainfall, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures during the latter half of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ531>534-536- 538-539-554-559. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ537-540>546-548>551. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...18/Ryan AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...18/Ryan  523 FXPQ50 PGUM 162129 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 729 AM ChST Sat Oct 17 2026 .Marianas Update... Typhoon Champi continues to approach. Most models now take it close to Guam, so they appear to be converging on a solution. It's satellite presentation has been improving, with the center clearing slightly in an attempt to form an eye. Forecast was changed slightly Saturday to bring scattered heavy showers in by the afternoon with the rest remaining unchanged. Damaging winds are anticipated to begin late tonight around midnight. && .Hydrology... As Typhoon Champi approaches, it will bring, among other things, copious rainfall. Amounts for Sunday and Monday are expected to reach 4 to 6 inches at Tinian and Saipan, 10 to 15 inches at Rota, and 12 to 20 inches at Guam. After coordinating with the National Water Center regarding their national Flood Hazard Outlook, Tinian and Saipan are Limited, Rota is Considerable, and Guam is Locally Catastrophic. The Flash Flood Watch will likely be upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning tonight if not sooner. && .Tropical Systems... Champi has just been upgraded to Typhoon 29W. Champi is centered near 12.0 degrees north and longitude 149.6 degrees east. It has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Champi is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Champi is currently about 340 miles east-southeast of Guam. Champi is currently expected to pass slightly south of the island of Guam. This is the general track of many of the AI-enhanced models. The physics based models are taking Champi either over or just north of Guam. It's starting to look like a close hit will be inevitable, the question will be, as it often is, how close? 10 miles away can be a lot different from 30 miles. For more information on Typhoon Champi, please see the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia... There are three major features in the region, the monsoon trough, a buffer circulation to the south of majuro, and a low that is near the Date Line. The monsoon trough is currently over northern RMI, (over Enewetak, Bikini, Rongelap, Wotje and north of Majuro) and intersects with the low near the Date Line. The buffer circulation is aiding in the convection near Majuro by tightening the convergence zone. This zone is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Flare ups of convection can be expected through middle of next week. For Pohnpei and Kosrae, a short lull in showers is expected for the next few days, then as the buffer circulation moves more northward showers are expected to return near the beginning of next week. These showers are anticipated to remaining through at least the middle of next week. As for the seas, near Pohnpei, the primary swell will be out of the south for the next day or so as Typhoon Champi moves further away, then the trade swell is expected to become the dominate swell. Overall seas are expected to be the highest near Pohnpei at 6 to 7 feet, and tapering down 4 to 5 feet to the east of Majuro. Winds are expected to remain light to moderate through the middle of next week. && .Western Micronesia... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Chuuk. The main weather maker for the region is Typhoon Champi to the north of Chuuk. Chuuk is in the monsoonal inflow notch. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with winds of moderate to strong. These conditions are expected to last through the early morning hours. Once Champi moves further west, conditions are are expected to improve as early as mid to late Sunday morning. Benign weather is expected to return through the middle of next week. For Palau and Yap a benign weather is expected through the middle of next week. For the seas at Palau and Yap, a north swell produced by Champi is expected to build in as Champi builds in strength and moves westward and start making its presence known as early as Sunday night into Monday morning. Seas are expected to be near 7 to 8 feet near Chuuk and tapering down 3 to 4 feet near Palau. && .Prev discussion... /issued 853 PM ChST Fri Oct 16 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the Marianas. Tropical Storm Champi, currently east of the Marianas, continues its trek toward the islands. Discussion... The big story, TS Champi. Champi continues to slowly strengthen east of Guam as it moves west. The latest forecast track brings Champi over northern Guam Sunday morning, with tropical storm force winds arriving before midnight Saturday. Therefore, a Typhoon Warning was issued for Guam and Rota, with a Tropical Storm Warning issued for Tinian and Saipan, with a Typhoon Watch continuing in case Champi makes a turn to the north. The forecast for tonight and Saturday maintains the current drier pattern. However, that will change drastically as Champi approaches. Tropical storm force winds, increasing heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into the region Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, we can expect at least category 2 typhoon force winds at Guam, category 1 at Rota and strong tropical storm winds at Tinian and Saipan. Winds and convection will continue over the islands through Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly ending Sunday night, after midnight. After Champi exits the region, a dry pattern looks to move into the region around Monday and continuing through the end of the week. Residents of the Marianas should make sure that they are prepared for typhoon force sustained winds of up to 105 mph. Stay safe and follow our forecasts for any updates as they occur. Marine... Marine and surf conditions will deteriorate rapidly, beginning Saturday evening as TS Champi approaches. A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota waters, with a Tropical Storm Warning now in effect and Typhoon Watch remaining in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Combined seas will remain at or below 7 feet through Saturday morning, then begin to build as a large east swell from Champi enters the waters. As Champi moves through the waters, seas could reach as high as 35 feet near the center of Champi, depending on how much Champi strengthens. Seas will be lowest for Tinian and Saipan waters, but still reach around 19 feet as Champi moves through. The large seas produced by Champi are expected to produce dangerous/deadly surf and rip currents, as well as coastal flooding, with inundation of 5 feet or more near the eye of Champi, and as high as 1 to 3 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Surf could reach as high as 26 feet at Guam and 19 feet at Tinian and Saipan. Rota can expect around 20 feet. Seas could remain hazardous through Monday, after Champi departs the region. Tropical Systems... As of 700 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Champi (29W) was located near 12N152E, which is about 510 miles east-southeast of Guam. It was moving west at 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds having increased to 60 mph near the center. Champi is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed through Saturday. This general forecast track will take Champi close to, or over, Guam Sunday morning. Champi is expected to go through a period of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, becoming a typhoon by Saturday and strengthening further thereafter. Winds and rain will come in rapidly, with winds becoming dangerous and life threatening very soon after onset. Do not let a false sense of normalcy now dictate your actions tomorrow; prepare NOW! For more information, please refer to the bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW, and by the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM. Eastern Micronesia... Tropical Storm Champi continues to move away from the region, which will allow showers to become isolated at Pohnpei Saturday night. Kosrae will mainly see isolated showers as well through the weekend, before increasing next week. However, at Majuro, the monsoon trough is lingering just to the north, with a another tropical circulation east of the Date Line poised to move into the region early next week. This will keep scattered showers going through the forecast period there. As Champi moves away, winds and seas will slowly decrease. Seas will return to the 4 to 6 foot range at Pohnpei and Kosrae, remaining at these values for Majuro. Western Micronesia... The main forecast challenges were maximum wind gusts at Chuuk, and swell direction and height for Yap and Palau as current TS Champi passes north of there. For now, kept wind gusts to 30 knots at Chuuk but mentioned a few higher gusts could occur, but with some uncertainty as to when during the next 24 hours Champi begins its RI (Rapid Intensification) cycle. Therefore a special weather statement remains in place along with a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas. will be elevated Then at Yap, focus was placed on trying to refine swell heights and directions, while introducing them at Palau Tuesday. Otherwise, look for isolated shower coverage at Palau and Yap to continue, becoming isolated at Chuuk by the end of the weekend. Gentle to fresh winds are expected at Chuuk, decreasing as we head into next week, while increasing at Yap during the same time. Palau will remain in the light to gentle range. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for GUZ001. Typhoon Warning for GUZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from this afternoon through late Sunday night for GUZ001. High Surf Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for GUZ001. MP...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Typhoon Warning for MPZ001. Coastal Flood Watch from this afternoon through late Sunday night for MPZ001>003. High Surf Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM ChST Monday for MPZ001>003. Tropical Storm Warning for MPZ002-003. Typhoon Watch for MPZ002-003. Marianas Waters...Typhoon Warning for PMZ151-152. Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ153-154. Typhoon Watch for PMZ153-154. && $$ Tropical Update: Stanko East and West Micronesia Update: Bowsher Marianas Update: Ogle Marianas: Kleeschulte East/West Micronesia: Doll Tropical: Montvila/Mesa DSS: Mesa  547 FXUS65 KCYS 162129 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 329 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A High Wind Warning is in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prone area, Arlington and Bordeaux. Wind gusts of 55 to 65 MPH are possible. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cloudless, clear day continue across the area this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and 50s and will stay here for the remainder of the day. Overnight lows are not anticipated to be as cold as Thursday night. This is due to the flattening of the ridge aloft turning winds more westerly. The downslope component of the wind will keep overnight lows from tanking like they did Thursday night. Winds will strengthen early Saturday morning as MSLP gradients steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. A surface trough in lee of the Laramie Range and a surface high over western Colorado will cause the tightening gradients. CAG to CPR 850 mb height gradients will also increase, reaching over 50 meters during the day Saturday. This is a good indication of potential high winds in the Arlington area. MSLP gradients across the area seem sufficiently strong enough to get high winds at Bordeaux as well. In-house guidance suggests a 40 percent chance of high winds occurring at Bordeaux during the day Saturday. As a result, went a head and upgraded the High Wind Watches for these zones to Warnings. High Wind Warnings are in effect from 6 AM to 7 PM Saturday. Given that these is minimal upper-level support for this event, high winds will likely be marginal, with the strongest wind gusts in the 55 to 65 MPH range. Winds are also likely to stay elevated overnight as gradients weaken slowly. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. Looking at another warm and dry day on Sunday. Although still above average, temperatures will be cooler by about 5 to 10 degrees compared to Saturday. This is a result from the flattening ridge sending a cool front into the forecast area. Luckily, still looking at a mostly sunny day, making for a pleasant end to the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mostly benign conditions to start the work week in the long term, but this pattern should begin to be broken up by a deep Pacific system that will encroach our region by the end of the forecast period. Monday starts with high pressure ridging mostly holding control of our forecast area, but a weakening upper level low will move across the Four Corners region and then just to our southeast through Tuesday afternoon. While mostly non- impactful, this feature will at least bring a very low end chance of some high elevation precipitation, along with a small bump in moisture. This influx of moisture will continue through the rest of the week as our upper level flow turns southwesterly while we sit between high pressure controlling the southeastern US and a deep Pacific system that will move inland by later Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will be the next noteworthy system to impact the forecast area as we see precipitation begin overspreading late Thursday into Friday and start another cooling trend that should persist into the weekend. For this forecast period, expect mostly similar temperatures day to day as highs will be around 6 to 12 degrees above normal, generally in the 60's to 70's, with lows similarly warm in the 40's. Any drop in temperatures would occur just beyond the long term after the Pacific system moves in, and the most impactful precipitation chances similarly just beyond this forecast time as well. Overall it should be a quiet period, but that will be ending by the weekend after next. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions and SKC expected over the next 24 hours. Main concerns would be gusty winds this evening and into the nighttime hours, primarily impacting WY terminals and KCDR with gusts between 20-30 knots from a southerly to southwesterly direction. Otherwise prevailing winds 10 knots or less. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ106- 110. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG  914 FXUS66 KPQR 162135 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 235 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry through this evening before a weak cold front brings low to moderate chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Low chances for rain on Monday as a low pressure system likely remains well offshore. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another chance for light rain returns Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge shifting east over the Canadian Rockies while southwest flow increases aloft over the Pacific NW. Warm and dry weather continues through this evening while offshore surface pressure gradients weaken and the flow turns back onshore. Winds become more southerly ahead of a weak cold front that will approach the coast later this evening. As an upper level shortwave trough lifts across northwestern WA early Saturday, chances for light rain will increase along the coast and then spread inland through Sat morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Newport at the coast and from Eugene northward along the I-5 corridor. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. Dry weather is expected on Sunday as a relatively flat shortwave ridge passes over the region. Seasonable temperatures continue with highs peaking in the mid-60s for most interior lowlands and mid-50s to lower 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. /DH && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Night...There is generally good agreement among models and their ensembles that a rather robust low pressure system will move across the northeastern Pacific toward the Oregon coast early Monday, but remain far enough offshore before dropping south to bring any meaningful impacts to the area. In fact, chances for even light rain have generally decreases to around 25% or less, mainly near the coast and Coast Range south of Astoria. The upper level trough over the Pacific is expected to split with the main low pressure area moving south toward the central California coast on Tuesday. Ensemble clusters remain in decent agreement for the upper level low to persist near the California coast on Wednesday, while shortwave ridging nudges into the Pacific NW. There is high confidence for dry conditions to persist across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 60s. More uncertainly returns later next week as another upper level trough begins to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska. Chances for rain increase on Thursday, though currently remain less than 40%. /DH && .AVIATION...Through 18z Saturday...Largely VFR conditions expected through 00z Sat along the coast and through 12z Sat inland. High cloud coverage will tend to increase ahead of an approaching front. Marine stratus will see 70-90% chances for IFR cigs at coastal terminals after 00-03z Sat, before chances for rain increase after 06-09z Sat. Highest confidence in rain is along the north OR/south WA coast (KAST, KTMK). Inland, chances for MVFR cigs reach 60-70% after 12z Sat while the chances for rain peak at 30-60% from 12-15z Sat. Gusty east winds continue through the western Columbia Gorge, supporting continued gusts to 20-30 kt at KTTD into this afternoon before the offshore pressure gradient eases as the frontal boundary approaches. Elsewhere, light winds inland and west to northwest winds along the coast will turn out of the south to southwest at around 5 kt ahead of the frontal passage. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with increasing high cloud cover through this evening and into tonight. A passing front will bring chances for MVFR cigs and light rain from 12-15z Sat. Light east winds may reach the terminal this afternoon before turning southerly ahead of the frontal passage tonight. -36 && .MARINE...Winds back today into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which will traverse the waters late tonight, before veering out of the northwest Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Seas of 5-7 ft at around 12 seconds otherwise continue through Saturday. The mid-period northwest swell will then build over the weekend, with seas rising to 8-10 ft. Chances for seas to exceed 10 ft reach 10-20% beyond 30 NM north of Cape Falcon. This swell will also pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the coast while overall seas remain relatively benign; caution should be used by those in or near the water along coastal beaches through this weekend. As another weather system looks to track southward well offshore of the Oregon and Washington coasts early next week, and may bring a period of steeper seas Monday into Tuesday although there remains uncertainty in the timing and potential peak wave height. The latest forecast depicts the westerly swell reaching 11-12 ft at 12-14 seconds Monday afternoon and evening before easing below 10 ft by Tuesday morning, with a 10-20% chance significant wave heights reach 15 ft or higher beyond 20 NM. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  030 FXUS61 KCAR 162137 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 537 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Confidence increased in temperatures and showers. - Added patchy fog into the forecast for this evening and tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. 2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods. In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages. KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rest of Today...IFR/LIFR cigs and vsby due to rain. S winds 10-15 kts with gust up to 30 kts. Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early, then becoming MVFR cigs after the rain ends. After midnight, VFR for all terminals. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...ARL/CN AVIATION...ARL/CN  954 FXUS66 KPDT 162136 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 236 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High winds and low RH into the evening for Grande Ronde Valley with red flag conditions, with winds persisting through Saturday morning. - Up to a tenth of an inch of rain for the Cascade Crests Saturday (50-70% confidence). - Uncertainty going into next week with another weather system pushing through the area, bringing possible precipitation (10-20% confidence). && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite and radar imagery show clear skies with scattered cirrus clouds over most of the regions, with clouds increasing towards the afternoon. The Grande Ronde region currently has surface observations of 15-20% RH with 20-35kt wind speeds with gusts of up to 40kt. With the NAM and NCEP showing a large pressure gradient of 4-7mb until Saturday morning, continuing windy conditions of 20kt and gusts up to 30kt overnight into Saturday morning. Maximum temperatures were higher than previously forecasted and are now around the mid to upper 70's. A red flag warning has been issued until the early evening for the Grande Ronde Valley. Saturday shows the emergence of a shortwave trough that will bring precip of up to a tenth of an inch (50-70% confidence) for the Cascade Crests. Along with the shortwave, a 850mb jet streak will bring breezy winds along the Kittitas Valley and parts of the Columbia Basin. The NBM advertises medium confidence (30 -60%) of wind speeds > 20mph for Ellensburg and lower confidence (40%) for the Lower Columbia Basin. Guidance is in good agreement that on Sunday an upper level trough descends into a low level pressure system that will be off the coast by Monday night. Monday night the clusters show uncertainty on the exact strength of how deep the low extends but is in agreement with the timing and position of the low as it travels southward. Tuesday into Wednesday shows split flow emerging over the region with uncertainty present with the strength and timing of the low, with models split between the low being just offshore (49%) or starting to enter southern California (51%). Thursday into Friday shows general agreement for the low moving through California that advertises chances for wrap around precipitation to occur through the CWA with low confidence(10-20%). Going into Friday shows low confidence chances for precipitation isolated within the Cascades and The Wallowas(10-20% confidence) as the models are largely uncertain to the strength of the flow over the Pacific NW and the remaining signal from the low pressure system in the Southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds will generally be light (under 10 knots) with gusts around 15-20 knots possible for DLS, PDT, and ALW towards the end of the TAF period (50-75% confidence). Gusts of around 15 knots are also possible for BDN from around 06z-10z (50% confidence). Skies will likely (greater than 75% chance) remain mostly clear for much of the TAF period, with cloud cover remaining above 25kft. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 43 69 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 50 70 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 39 72 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 43 70 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 41 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 40 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 35 67 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 70 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 39 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 47 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ694. && $$ DISCUSSION...07/95 AVIATION...21/71  239 FXUS65 KREV 162141 CCA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Reno NV 241 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with east to southeast breezes this afternoon. * Increasing south to southwest winds by Monday afternoon as a storm approaches the west coast. * Chances of rain and mountain snow showers may return by mid-late next week, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy E/SE winds this afternoon with gusts 25-30 mph may produce minor fire concerns in far northeast CA/northwest NV, and also in Mineral County. While most areas should see these winds diminish tonight, a small area of enhanced SE-S winds (gusts 30-35 mph) is still indicated over Mineral and SE Churchill counties overnight into early Saturday morning, bringing a short period of choppy conditions on Walker Lake. Lighter winds then prevail through most of the weekend, except for a return of modest zephyr-type southwest/west breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) Sunday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra. For next week, an approaching storm from the eastern Pacific is expected to bring increased S-SW winds Monday afternoon, although the latest guidance is trending slower with this storm's approach toward the west coast. This would delay the onset of winds and also cap the speeds a bit with gusts more in the 30-35 mph range from the Reno-Tahoe areas northward to the OR border. These winds with ongoing dry conditions could lead to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. For the remainder of next week, this storm appears to show a greater potential of stalling offshore Tuesday and reducing shower chances across the region. Then from Wednesday through Friday, a more varied storm track continues to limit confidence in rain and mountain snow chances/amounts, especially north of I-80. Currently the eastern Sierra and Tahoe are favored with 50-70% chances centered on Wednesday, but dropping to a broader 25-50% elsewhere. Showers could linger or even have a delayed onset until later next week, as some scenarios hold the low offshore before finally moving inland as a weaker system. A few wetter outcomes are still within the realm of the ensemble guidance ranges, but at this time a less significant precip event is more likely next week. Cooler temperatures are still on the table next week from Tuesday onward, with highs generally in the upper 50s-mid 60s for lower elevations and lower-mid 50s for Sierra communities. MJD && .AVIATION... East FL100 winds of 30-35 kt will maintain mountain wave turbulence concerns along and west of the Sierra crest until these winds decrease later this afternoon. For the main terminals, east-southeast wind gusts generally below 20 kt continue through 02-03Z this evening, except KCXP/KMMH which are more prone to increased winds from this direction could see gusts up to 25 kt. VFR conditions prevail through the weekend with light winds prevailing Saturday, then southwest breezes with gusts 15-20 kt return by Sunday afternoon at the main terminals. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  361 FXUS65 KRIW 162143 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 343 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mostly sunny and cool autumn day today, with highs in the 50s. - A warming trend will return for the upcoming weekend, with highs reaching the upper 50s west of the Divide, and the 60s to lower 70s for central Wyoming. - Rain chances start to move back into southwest Wyoming for the latter half of the week, but current chances remain low for most areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No major changes to the forecast with this update. Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures continue through the week, with no precipitation expected until at least Tuesday (across far western Wyoming). Saturday looks to be the warmest day for the next week, with highs in the 60s. Around Buffalo, temperatures have an 80 percent chance to exceed 75 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is high confidence in dry and VFR flight conditions the entire TAF period. Apart from a few high clouds after 18Z Saturday, anticipate clear skies. Winds are forecast to be 11kts or less at most terminals through 00Z Sunday. The exception terminals are KCPR where gusty 20kt to 30kt winds are expected the entire TAF period and KCOD where gusty winds move in after 17Z Saturday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt  773 FXUS65 KVEF 162150 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 250 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds are diminishing, leading to calmer and cooler weather into the weekend. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the next Friday. The stronger, hazardous winds have subsided, with most of the areas seeing lingering breezy winds that will reduce into the evening. Saturday will offer another batch of breezy afternoon winds, but Sunday will be on the quieter side. Temperatures will also reduce into the weekend with Saturday and Sunday seeing highs roughly 5 degrees below average for most areas (upper 70s and low 80s) with the main exception being Death Valley which will be right around average: in the low 90s. The next work week will see breezy winds return as another through pattern begins to approach the region, and with the northwesterly flow, temperatures look to remain on the cool side. As this trough pushes closer to the region, it will tab into some moisture from the Pacific and transport some showers into the region. Models are still struggling to nail the timing for initial rain chances and there is good potential for the time of arrival to be delayed, but the current official forecast calls for spotty showers to arrive early Tuesday. These rain chances look to become more widespread into that evening, with rain chances continuing to increase into Wednesday as the trough centers over southern California. The orientation of the trough and it's associated low pressure center at that time will offer a direct line of moisture transport into the area offering our best chances for rain and increased rain rate. Unfortunately this is where a lot of the models begin to struggle, with some slowing the low pressure's movement, and others pushing multiple lows through the area. Both outcomes call for rain chances to last into that weekend, but greatly differ on rainfall amounts and overall impacts. The current forecast shows lingering rain into the weekend, but nothing largely impactful. Much can change in our longer term forecast, so be sure to check in as it develops! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeast winds will continue into the early evening, with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots persisting through sunset. Winds will fall below 12 knots overnight, with directions becoming more variable but still maintaining a northerly component. Northeast breezes return Saturday, although speeds will be lighter than today and are expected to remain below 10 knots. More typical southwest to west winds are expected after sunset Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday, with mainly clear skies through tonight, followed by increasing mid- and high-level clouds tomorrow morning and afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will continue into early evening, with gusts generally 15 to 30 knots across much of the region. Across the southern Great Basin and western Mojave Desert, wind directions will favor northeast to east directions, while northerly winds are expected in the Colorado River Valley and northern Owens Valley. Winds will diminish overnight, with most areas seeing speeds fall below 10 knots. Winds on Saturday will be lighter, with speeds generally remaining 10 knots or less in most areas. VFR conditions will prevail, with FEW to SCT high clouds spreading from south to north overnight and Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impactsaccording to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Murdock AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  787 FXUS66 KSEW 162150 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 250 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge will bring one last day of dry and warm conditions this afternoon. Wetter and cooler weather arrives tonight into Saturday. Sunday will remain cool with showers in the mountains. Conditions look to dry up through the first half of the week with a weak front may reaching the area on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Patchy fog has dissipated early thus afternoon leaving mostly sunny skies across Western washington. High pressure continues over the area with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Areas along the water will likely see high temperatures more in the low to mid 60s. A ridge will shift eastward tonight into Saturday, allowing a trough and a front to move through the area. At this time, we're continuing to see the bulk of the rain falling late tonight into the early morning, affecting areas along the coast and the mountains. Post front, we'll see a convergence zone set up along the Snohomish/King county line for lingering showers. The high temperature will cool to temps in the upper 50s, to lower 60s. Cooler but dry on Sunday with lingering showers in the Cascades, high temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Latest ensemble guidance shows an upper level low off the coast on Monday, barely clipping our area, resulting in mostly a dry day, with areas along the coast seeing a shower or two. This system will weaken into Tuesday as it rotates away from our area, leaving western WA in light and dry offshore flow. High temps stay in the upper 50s, with a weak front slated to enter the area Wednesday into Thursday for a chance of rain. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... VFR cigs and visbys have returned to western Washington this afternoon. Surface winds are light and generally south to southwesterly at 7 kts or less. Expect these conditions to continue into this evening. The next weather system will arrive overnight into Saturday morning, bringing light rain to much of the region. Cigs are expected to go down to MVFR between 07-09Z for all terminals except KOLM where IFR cigs are more likely. Rain will generally ease after 17Z with VFR cigs for the remainder of the day. KSEA...VFR cigs are to continue this afternoon and evening with southwesterly flow. The next weak frontal system will be arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain will be done by 17Z, with isolated showers possible in the afternoon. Cigs tomorrow morning may become MVFR for brief periods of time, but the prevailing category will be VFR. 21 && .MARINE... High pressure over the waters will weaken today. A frontal system will move through late tonight into Saturday morning. Seas will be between 8-10 feet tomorrow, more so in the offshore waters. High pressure building over the waters Saturday afternoon will remain through Sunday. Another system will move by west of the coastal waters Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday with seas subsiding back down to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday. Small craft advisory westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca Saturday. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$