582 FXUS62 KMFL 161908 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across interior and Southwest Florida today. Isolated to scattered activity possible for Southeast Florida mainly in the morning hours. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. - Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions, with elevated seas and potential for Gale force winds later this weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Latest guidance still depicts a wet and breezy weekend across South Florida. Ahead of the front, very high PWATS between 2.1 and 2.3 inches over the east coast metro areas Saturday into Sunday morning before falling below 2 inches Sunday afternoon after the frontal passage. These PWATS values are above the 90th percentile which is 2 inches and is approaching the maximum PWAT values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches. With abundant moisture in place and light steering flow, any shower and storm that does develop could be very efficient rainmakers leading to localized flooding concerns across the east coast metro - especially between 2-8PM Saturday. Forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized maxima up to 6 inches are possible over the east coast metro areas this weekend, with highest totals expected across coastal Palm Beach County. With the grounds over metro areas of Palm Beach and Broward Counties getting close to being saturated, any heavy rainfall that does fall over these areas could lead to some minor flooding especially in low lying and flood prone areas. Only change with this forecast update is the addition of a Small Craft Advisory for all local waters beginning late Saturday through early Monday. Will continue to monitor the latest forecast on the heavy rainfall potential and for the potential upgrade of the Small Craft Advisory to a Gale Watch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today. As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly andsteer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible. Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated thunderstorm activity across eastern sites through the afternoon will consolidate across interior and SW Florida by this evening. Chance for isolated showers overnight, with a lull expected during the morning hours. Very light flow overnight, with weak NNW flow developing towards the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 88 75 83 / 30 90 70 70 West Kendall 77 8774 83 / 30 90 60 70 Opa-Locka 77 88 74 83 / 30 90 70 70 Homestead 77 88 75 84 / 40 80 70 70 Fort Lauderdale 77 87 74 82 / 40 90 80 70 N Ft Lauderdale 77 87 75 83 / 40 90 80 70 Pembroke Pines 76 88 73 83 / 30 90 70 70 West Palm Beach 76 87 73 82 / 40 90 80 60 Boca Raton 76 87 73 82 / 40 90 90 70 Naples 75 84 70 82 / 40 60 40 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto  372 FXUS61 KCLE 161903 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 303 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and gusty winds continue into Saturday in the wake of a cold front. 2) Dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure builds into the region. A Freeze Watch has been issued Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 MPH continue through this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped across the region. As the trough continues to sink south across Northern Ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect rain downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron tonight into early Saturday morning. Given the Lake Huron connection, the primary area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between the I-71 and I-77 corridors. Any remaining gusty winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure gradually builds into the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold conditions. Effective radiative cooling under the high on Saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the forecast area with the exception of Lake County and the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula and Erie County PA where lows may be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures will begin to moderate into early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the region. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Areawide rain showers is expected to continue through the rest of the day today, before the broader rain shield exits to the east by this evening. Rain will mainly consist of 4-6+ SM but some heavier showers could briefly produce visibility down to 1-2SM at times. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected, though patchy IFR ceilings are possible. By late this evening into early tonight, lake effect rain showers are expected across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. There will be one or two primary bands near KCLE/KMFD and then into Northwest Pennsylvania. High pressure builds in late tonight into Saturday, with skies becoming mostly sunny through the day. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots become north this evening, and then gradually diminish through the day Saturday. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave heights up to 6-9 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the entire lake Saturday late morning and early afternoon. North winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots Saturday night into Sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet or less under high pressure. Light winds of 10 knots or less are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...13  501 FXUS61 KPHI 161907 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 307 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watches have been issued for portions of eastern PA and northern NJ for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Increasing potential for unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts from a developing nor'easter beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. Gale Warnings have been extended into Sunday morning for southern Atlantic coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A strong cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with severe weather possible. 2. Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. 3. Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening with severe weather possible. Low pressure passing north of northern New England will drag a cold front through the region late this afternoon and evening. Clouds over the area are lifting and dissipating somewhat this afternoon, and it will warm up with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. With clouds breaking up and sunshine developing, gusty southwest winds are ushering a more humid airmass into the area with surface dew points in the mid and upper 60s. While instability values will be relatively low, generally SBCAPE values and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg, but 06-km Bulk Shear will be upwards of 55-60 kt. SPC has the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening, with part of the region now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and the rest of the area likely to be added to an additional watch later on. Timing looks to be around 4pm to 6pm for the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, 6pm to 8pm along the I-95 corridor, and from 7pm to 9 pm over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. After sunset, with loss of diurnal heating, the risk for severe weather will start to diminish. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts. Much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points falling towards the 30s. Some showers may linger tonight into Saturday morning especially across southern NJ and Delmarva as the front slows for a time, but they should clear out finally later in the day if not before. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freeze conditions are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning with another round of frost possible for Sunday night into Monday morning. The coldest airmass of the season thus far will usher into the region this weekend. With high pressure settling in from the north, skies will become clear by Saturday evening. While it will be a bit breezy early in the night, the pressure gradient is expected to lessen overnight, especially for locales north and west of I-95. In these areas, anticipate a period of good radiational cooling conditions where low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. For this reason, have issued a Freeze Watch for potions of eastern PA and northern NJ for Saturday night. Further south and east, it appears that winds will remain elevated enough to preclude frost formation where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. At this time, no frost/freeze headlines are expected along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. High temperatures on Sunday will then only be in the 50s for the entire region despite mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate Sunday night into early next week. Another round of frost/freeze conditions will be possible for Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly confined to the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern New Jersey. Lows are expected to be several degrees warmer than Saturday night mainly in the mid to upper 30s, so this would favor frost over freeze where the growing season remains active. Too early to determine any headlines at this time, but will be considered in future updates. KEY MESSAGE 3...Uncertainty persists regarding a nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic that may cause unsettled conditions and hazardous marine impacts early next week. The base of a deep trough axis will pass through the region later Saturday. As it does so, the trough axis will then cutoff into an upper level low which will meander over the southern Mid-Atlantic coast into early next week. At the same time, strong and expansive high pressure will be building over the Ohio Valley. While confidence is increasing regarding a nor'easter developing off the North Carolina coast later this weekend, it must be said there remains a vast amount of uncertainty with regards to potential impacts to our region into next week. Considerable differences amongst global/ensemble guidance exists with regards to just how close/long this system will get/last in our region. Some guidance keeps the system suppressed further south due to the strong high to the north, which will then minimize potential impacts to our area. However, if the system is further north (and this has been the trend over the past 24 hours), then more in the way of impacts and unsettled weather may occur. At the very least, it is expected that gusty northeast breezes will occur for the majority of the week with the highest gusts located near coastal areas. While it isn't expected to be a washout by any means, there is at least a chance of showers each day for areas south and east of I-95 beginning as early as Sunday night through the end of the week. More details to come over the weekend once forecast guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...CIGs slowly lifting to VFR shortly if not already. A line of SHRA and TSRA will move fairly quickly across the terminals generally from 20Z to 22Z at KRDG/KABE, 22Z to 0Z at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, and from 23Z to 01Z at KMIV/KACY. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z, then mainly VFR, though showers may linger especially southern terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR, though showers and perhaps some MVFR cigs may linger southern terminals in the morning. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather expected. Sunday night...Primarily VFR. A slight chance of rain showers possible near KACY and KMIV. Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR, although sub-VFR conditions possible at times. A chance of rain showers each day for all terminals except KRDG and KABE. Gusty northeast winds up to 20 kt possible with gusts up to 30 kt possible near KMIV and KACY. && .MARINE... Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. for later today. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt gusts are likely Saturday. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Gale Warnings are in effect for offshore waters and Atlantic coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for Atlantic coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Great Egg Inlet and Delaware Bay. North-northeast winds of 20-30 kt with gusts of 30-40 kt. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday...A mix of Gales and Small Craft conditions are likely to continue on all waters. Northeast winds of 15-30 kt with gusts of 30- 40 kt possible. Seas of 6-12 feet. Sunday night through Wednesday...Due to developing nor'easter off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast, a prolonged period of gale force conditions are expected to develop/continue across all marine waters. It should be noted that forecast confidence is low though. Northeast winds of 25-35 kt with gusts of 35-45 kt are possible. Seas of 10-16+ feet possible. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105. NJ...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NJZ001-007>009. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>452. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ453>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/MPS/RCM  603 FXUS63 KLBF 161908 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning in effect tonight into Saturday morning for a large portions of western and north central Nebraska. This should lead to an end to the growing season. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns Saturday afternoon, for areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions Sunday and into next week, with highs ranging in the 60s and 70s. - Shower chances return Thursday night into Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight...surface high pressure centered over the area early this evening will settle southward across Oklahoma into northern Missouri. A light and variable wind will become light south later this evening, becoming south-southwest late tonight. Light winds beneath clear skies will allow for several hours of favorable radiational cooling this evening. Went colder using the BCConsshort, for lows in the mid to upper 20s across southwest, west central and central NE. As southerly winds increase after midnight, some gustiness will occur across north central NE where lows will range from 30 to the lower 30s. Most of the 12Z MOS guidance have lows tonight even colder in the low to mid 20s southwest and central NE areas. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into Saturday morning for areas near and easts of Highway 83. The cold temperatures should effectively end the growing season across western and north central Nebraska. Saturday/Saturday Night...An upper ridge will progress eastward across the Northern and Central Plains, as an upper trough moves across Alberta and Saskatchewan Canada. This will bring a notable warmup on Saturday to 70 to 75 across the western Sandhills to lower 60s central NE. Southwest winds will be gusty from 15 to 30 mph near and east of Highway 83. At least elevated fire weather concerns appear probable for areas west of Highway 83. While low humidity from 18 to 25 percent is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes across the west remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some mid 30s are likely in southwestern areas, northern Nebraska should hold in the low 40s. Sunday, A weak cold front will move into the northwest Sandhills. Highs will remain mild in the low 60s to near 70 with sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early to mid week, upper troughing will persist across the western U.S. with a closed low of the coast of southern California by Wednesday. Upper ridging will amplify across the Central U.S. Weak disturbances from the Desert Southwest into the CentraL Plains will bring some increase in clouds. Isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out Monday night through Wednesday, though the current forecast remains dry. Highs in the 60s Monday warm into the 70s by Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, the western US upper trough/closed low will advance east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This will bring continued highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday. Some threat for precipitation as well Thursday night into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored as the cold front interacts will some increase in Gulf moisture. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Ceilings from 2500FT AGL to 3500FT AGL have become scattered early this afternoon, with SKC across all of western and north central NE after 22Z. Northwest winds will remain 12KT or less at the KVTN and KLBF terminals this afternoon, then light and variable winds this evening becoming light south. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg  822 FXUS64 KCRP 161910 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gale Warning remains in effect through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - High Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has made its way into the South Texas region this morning, with strong winds coming out of the north from behind the front. Gust's today are expected to be up around 25-35 knots, with some areas possibly getting up to 40 knots closer offshore. A wind advisory remains in effect through this morning and into this afternoon. Those high winds won't be too much of a concern as they will begin to die down tomorrow afternoon, allowing for a beautiful weekend with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. Tomorrow morning will be significantly cooler than normal due to the front with highs in the low 70's across the South Texas region. Expect lows to dip into the mid to high 50's tonight and even Saturday night as well. Unfortunately, these cool conditions won't last for too long as we can see temperatures increasing starting early next week with temperatures reaching into the high 80's and low 90's over the CWA. Most of the rain chances with this frontal passage will remain offshore with a slight chance of showers early this afternoon but will ultimately clear up as relatively dry air filters in from the front. Humidity will be low in most areas across the South Texas region, especially in the evenings this weekend for the Brush Country. Coastal flooding will also be a concern from the strong northerly winds with swell periods ranging from 7 to 8 seconds. A coastal flood advisory will remain in effect through Sunday morning, with the biggest concern being during high tide. Rip current risk will also be high through Saturday due to the long swell period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with strong winds this afternoon and evening and gusty winds overnight. Winds tomorrow will remain gusty as a continuation of the overnight winds. Some sites could briefly see MVFR ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to Gale (BF 8) are expected to continue through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday evening. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday night. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front earlier this morning has brought strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 57 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 53 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 55 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 55 73 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 59 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 53 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 55 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 61 74 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84  341 FXUS64 KLCH 161923 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 223 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas through 1 AM late tonight in the wake of a cold front. Other areas will still see elevated fire danger. - A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas for Saturday. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon. - Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis depict a strong upper-level trough digging through the eastern US. An associated surface cold front continues to push southeastward across our areas, ushering in a much drier continental airmass. As of this writing, the front is currently pushing eastward through Vermilion, Lafayette, and St Martin parishes. Temperatures ahead of the front are generally in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints around 70, while areas behind the front see cloudier skies with temps falling to the 70s. There is enough moisture for a few isolated showers along the front, but little if any appreciable rain is expected. Behind the front, northerly winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens with surface high pressure building into the southern Plains. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across the area with a few gusts up to 25-30 mph. The greatest wind speeds are expected closer to the coast and adjacent to the Atchafalaya Basin, and a wind advisory remains in effect for these areas through Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall into the 50s across the area, with a few spots in inland SE Texas and central LA perhaps even dropping into the 40s for the first time this season. Breezy conditions continue into Saturday morning. Winds should generally be on a downward trend heading into the afternoon and evening, but will remain elevated through the daytime hours. Confidence is not high enough to extend wind advisories further into the afternoon at this time, but this potential will be monitored for future forecast cycles. Otherwise, clear skies are expected with afternoon highs only reaching the low 70s across the CWA, which will make for our first true taste of fall across our area this year. Overnight lows Saturday night will be even cooler with continued cold air advection and ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s along the coast and dip well into the 40s across most inland areas. For Sunday through the remainder of the week, a strong upper-level ridge will begin to build over the central CONUS, while surface high pressure anchors itself over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will result in a gradual warming trend, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s by midweek. Light easterly to northeasterly flow will keep any Gulf moisture away from our areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and PWAT in the 0.4 to 0.6 inch range (below 25th percentile relative to climatology). As a result, the chance of rain through next week is essentially zero, with no substantial weather systems to speak of through the end of the forecast period. 64/Silas && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cold front continues to sweep across southwest Louisiana early this afternoon. The front has passed BPT, AEX, and LCH and will be crossing LFT around 18Z and ARA around 19Z. In the wake of this front, north winds will become gusty at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. MVFR ceilings are expected for all terminals along and for a few hours after frontal passage. Current expectation is that these clouds should clear from northwest to southeast by 23Z-00Z, but this timing is low confidence. Gusty north winds continue through the night and into Saturday morning. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Offshore winds will strengthen heading into this evening as a cold front sweeps across the waters from northwest to southeast. The greatest winds are expected over the offshore Gulf waters, where sustained winds of 25-35 kt and gusts up to 40 kt will be possible along with seas up to 7-11 ft. A Gale Warning is in effect for these areas for tonight through Saturday morning as a result, with a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal lakes and bays where wind speeds will not be as strong. While winds decrease from these more hazardous levels Saturday afternon and evening, they will remain elevated through Sunday morning, especially over the offshore Gulf waters. Small craft advisories have been issued through Sunday morning and may need to be extended later into Sunday, particularly for our eastern marine zones. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is crossing Louisiana early this afternoon, with just a few light showers popping up along it in the Acadiana region. As northerly winds ramp up in the wake of the front, they will bring in much drier air, which will combine with dry fuels from ongoing drought to create a period of high fire danger. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for inland portions of central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, where afternoon RH will drop as low as 30-35 percent with north winds of 15-25 mph. This threat may persist later into the evening than typical as humidities will be slow to recover overnight. Saturday will likely be a more widespread fire weather concern across our area, with even drier air continuing to advect in from the north as breezy north winds continue. A red flag warning has been issued for the entire CWA, with afternoon minimum RH dropping into the 30-35 percent range area-wide. The area of greatest concern Saturday will likely be areas along and south of I-10 and east of I- 49, where the highest wind speeds are expected to occur. The threat will diminish Saturday evening as winds decrease. Winds decrease closer to the 5-10 kt range for Sunday heading into next week, but dry conditions continue with afternoon MinRH likely in the 25-35 percent range each day. Chances for rain will be near zero through next week as drought persists across the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64 AVIATION...64  146 FXUS65 KVEF 161900 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds are diminishing, leading to calmer and cooler weather into the weekend. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the next Friday. The stronger, hazardous winds have subsided, with most of the areas seeing lingering breezy winds that will reduce into the evening. Saturday will offer another batch of breezy afternoon winds, but Sunday will be on the quieter side. Temperatures will also reduce into the weekend with Saturday and Sunday seeing highs roughly 5 degrees below average for most areas (upper 70s and low 80s) with the main exception being Death Valley which will be right around average: in the low 90s. The next work week will see breezy winds return as another through pattern begins to approach the region, and with the northwesterly flow, temperatures look to remain on the cool side. As this trough pushes closer to the region, it will tab into some moisture from the Pacific and transport some showers into the region. Models are still struggling to nail the timing for initial rain chances and there is good potential for the time of arrival to be delayed, but the current official forecast calls for spotty showers to arrive early Tuesday. These rain chances look to become more widespread into that evening, with rain chances continuing to increase into Wednesday as the trough centers over southern California. The orientation of the trough and it's associated low pressure center at that time will offer a direct line of moisture transport into the area offering our best chances for rain and increased rain rate. Unfortunately this is where a lot of the models begin to struggle, with some slowing the low pressure's movement, and others pushing multiple lows through the area. Both outcomes call for rain chances to last into that weekend, but greatly differ on rainfall amounts and overall impacts. The current forecast shows lingering rain into the weekend, but nothing largely impactful. Much can change in our longer term forecast, so be sure to check in as it develops! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Northeast winds will continue through the afternoon, with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots persisting through sunset. Winds will fall below 12 knots overnight, with directions becoming more variable but still maintaining a northerly component. Northeast breezes return Saturday, although speeds will be lighter than today and are expected to remain below 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday, with mainly clear skies through tonight, followed by increasing mid- and high-level clouds tomorrow morning. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon, with gusts generally 15 to 30 knots across much of the region. Across the southern Great Basin and western Mojave Desert, wind directions will favor northeast to east directions, while northerly winds are expected in the Colorado River Valley and northern Owens Valley. Winds will diminish overnight, with most areas seeing speeds fall below 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail, with FEW to SCT high clouds spreading from south to north overnight and Saturday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Murdock AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  455 FXAK67 PAJK 161905 CCA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1104 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 CORRECTED UPDATE section... .UPDATE...As the occluded front moves farther inland and weakens, and the main low pressure center lifts northeast into Canada, we continue seeing a general downward trend on rain coverage/intensity and wind through the rest of today. Main updates this morning were for removal of the Wind Advisory for the central and southern Panhandle zones, leaving Skagway into the afternoon hours. Marine hazards are all at the Small Craft Advisory level or lower with a downward trend through tonight expected. All eyes now turn to the central GulfAK low Tuesday into Wednesday and the associated impacts that will potentially bring, initially to maritime interest over the eastern GulfAK. 05/Garmon && .SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...We have kept the Flood Watch up through 1 PM, but generally we expect that to expire on time this afternoon as the rains become more patchy (less concentrated and lighter) with water levels start dropping in the rivers and any associated impacts drop off. The only remaining area with a Wind Advisory is Skagway, and we expect winds to stay up there through mid afternoon at least. The Wind Advisory expires at 7 PM. .AVIATION (UPDATE)...Much more in the way of VFR observations being noted across SEAK late this morning as the weakening front starts to disspate across the Panhandle. We do expect periods of MVFR in light rain and lower ceilings with passing showers through the day for most locations. Still a bit breezy out there for Juneau north to Haines and Skagway where winds are gusty out of the east and southeast at 15-33kts at times. Skagway will continue to have the strongest wind gusts (to around 33 kts) through at least 22Z then we should start to see a weakening/decoupling trend on winds as we go into the early evening hours. 05/Garmon && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 617 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Persistent moderate to heavy rain ends through Friday morning, replaced by intermittent rain showers through Friday night. - Windy conditions continues through Friday across the northern panhandle, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Skagway with gusts up to 45 mph. - Brief break in rain possible Sunday night into Monday, however another front and round of rain and wind push across the Gulf by Monday afternoon. SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/ Active period of weather continues through early Thursday morning as a strong front continues to push inland. Overall forecast has remained on track, with our first atmospheric river rainfall over the last 24 hours. Moderate to heavy rain has persisted through the overnight period into early Friday morning from Juneau southward down the panhandle, with constant rain rates around 0.2 an inch per hour, some areas exceeding 0.3 inch per hour rates. Highest rainfall totals over the last 24 hours with the previous two systems combined is around 4 to 6 inches near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, near 8 inches at the Silvis Powerhouse around 800ft, and around 2 to 4 inches for communities across the northern panhandle. Moving into early Friday afternoon, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end from West to East across the panhandle, with periods of rain showers and brief breaks in between expected through Friday night. As this front pushes inland, still some concern for isolated thunderstorm development across the Gulf coast and southern panhandle through this afternoon, however not anticipating widespread severe weather at this time. With any potential thunderstorm, be wary of erratic winds, a few lightning strikes, and limited visibilities due to moderate to heavy rain. Lastly, as we move into the latter half of October, precipitation type becomes more of an issue (AKA will it be rain, snow, or both?) and more prevalent. With this latest batch of rain moving through the panhandle, did add in a few hours of a rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow at the higher elevations of Skagway near White Pass through Friday night, albeit chances remain low. Overnight, strong wind gusts occurred overnight, mainly over the southern panhandle. Gusts around 60 mph were observed over Hydaburg, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. As the front continues to push inland, periods of gusty winds will follow. Strongest winds throughout the rest of today will be near Skagway with gusts to around 45 mph. These strong gusts will diminish through this evening. LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/... For the weekend, the active weather pattern will persist at least through Saturday, as lingering low pressure in the northern Gulf will keep onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain showers across much of the Panhandle. As this low weakens, another low passing well to the south will allow a high pressure ridge to build over the Gulf into SEAK. This transition is expected to bring a brief lull in rain showers later Sunday. The break will be short-lived as another low and front quickly swing through the Gulf into SEAK on Monday, likely reaching Yakutat by the afternoon and then swinging through the panhandle Monday night into early Tuesday. With the quick progression of this system, overall rain amounts will be limited, although a brief period of moderate to heavy rain expected with the frontal passage. Another large, gale force to potential storm force, low will lift northeast into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday night into Tuesday, sending a another front and deep moisture feed toward SEAK. While models agree on the overall general pattern, differences in timing and strength of this low and attendant front still persist. Despite model differences, the low is expected to stall over northern Gulf and weaken by midweek. However, the prolonged onshore flow and a good potential for moderate to heavy rain persists behind the initial front through midweek. Winds will begin to pick up on Monday night as the front approaches, with breezy to windy southerlies ahead and with the frontal passage Tuesday, with gales possible for Clarence and northern Lynn. Cooler daytime temps will prevail with the persistent onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain, with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. Nighttime lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. AVIATION.../through 12z Saturday/...Conditions across the panhandle continue to be less than favorable for flying this morning. Ceilings range from VFR down to IFR with visibilities generally remaining VFR to MVFR with the rain and wind. Periods of heavy rain will continue through this morning which will aid in reduced ceilings and visibilities. Winds are also elevated this morning, especially across the southern panhandle where gusts have been getting up to 40-50 kt. These gusts should diminish later this morning as the system affecting us moves north into Canada. When this happens, winds should start to trend down for the southern panhandle but will increase for places such as Skagway and Haines. The persistent rain will also come to an end but rain showers will be likely with the continued onshore flow. Some of these showers could be heavier at times and might reduce ceilings and visibilities. MARINE... Outside Waters: Overall wind speeds have diminished across the gulf as the front has moved inland this morning. Southwesterly winds around 15 to 20 kts continue with elevated seas around 9 to 12 ft. Significant sea heights will remain elevated as the next low pressure system begins to moveeastward into the gulf. This next low will actually cause seas to build to around 10 to 15 ft late Friday into Saturday with highest waves over the central gulf. Around the same time, winds will increase to around 25 to 30 kts remaining southwesterly, except for the far northern gulf that will become east-southeasterly Saturday morning. The low causing these slightly increased winds will then weaken late Saturday into Sunday, allowing for winds and waves to relax. Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, bringing strong winds and elevated seas. Inside Waters: A strong front continues to move across the panhandle early this morning. This has brought increased winds across the inside waters. Currently strongest winds are occurring over Stephens Passage with winds around 25 to 30 kts. As this front continues to push inland, Lynn Canal will start to see increased winds to around 30 to 35 kts. These stronger winds will last longer over Northern Lynn Canal, remaining into Sunday evening. Central and northern channels winds will continue to remain slightly elevated, around 15 to 20 kts through Saturday as another low pressure system tracks eastward into the gulf. Winds across the area will then diminish Sunday as that second low pressure system weakens. Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, once again bringing increased winds across the inner channels. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. Flood Watch until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  249 FXUS61 KBOX 161901 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watches have been replaced with Small Craft Advisories for the applicable waters, excluding the outermost zones where Small Craft Advisories are not issued. Post-frontal NNW winds are expected to gust 25-35 kt Saturday, with occasional gusts approaching gale force possible, especially across the southern and southeastern outer waters Saturday night into early Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. - A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. - Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Morning showers exit, followed by a brief lull this afternoon before a cold front brings additional showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. As anticipated, gloomy conditions to wrap up the workweek. Earlier this morning, a warm front lifted through southern New England, bringing the first round of showers. The region is now positioned within the warm sector. Dew points are increasing into the lower 60s along the coast, while interior locations remain in the 50s. However, by midafternoon, anticipate temperatures and dew points continuing to climb into the 60s. Increasing dew points could lead to pockets of instability. High-resolution guidance suggests limited surface-based CAPE; however, as we've previously mentioned, the jet dynamics associated with the approaching cold front are impressive. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is developing across western New York and extending southwest into Ohio. This activity is associated with our cold front, which is marching eastward, aided by a fairly robust mid-level trough. Ahead of the trough, SSW flow allows for WAA, supporting mild afternoon temperatures despite the clouds and rain. Highs should reach the middle 60s across northern areas, while upper 60s to near 70 degrees are possible farther south. Today is not anticipated to be a high-end severe weather day by any stretch of the imagination; however, it is a day we cannot completely ignore. Instability remains limited, generally 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE, though strong bulk shear may compensate for the limited instability and support a few stronger storms. Over the last 24 hours, the greatest shear has shifted a bit farther south, favoring areas around NYC and points southwest. Nevertheless, a couple of stronger storms remain possible. Feel as though these storms could produce sub-severe wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, with a much lower chance of severe gusts exceeding 60 mph. CAMs continue to indicate that the greatest potential for thunderstorms across southern New England will be between 5 PM and 11 PM as the cold front progresses from west to east. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers may linger along the southern coast early Saturday. Otherwise, drier and noticeably colder conditions are expected Saturday. Heading into the overnight hours, the area of low pressure associated with the cold front tracks northeast through the Saint Lawrence Valley as broad high pressure expands across the Great Plains. The surface low deepens tobelow 990 mb, with some guidance suggesting it could reach 985 mb by Saturday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient supports gusty NNW winds at the surface, while northerly flow strengthens aloft. Meanwhile, 850 mb temperatures fall to between -6C and -4C, a rather significant drop considering values were between +15C and +17C Friday afternoon. While the majority of precipitation should exit with the cold front, some guidance suggests the potential for an anafrontal wave to develop along the departing boundary early Saturday. This could allow showers to linger across the southern coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands into Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon are not anticipated to be much warmer than the lower 50s across the coastal plain and middle to upper 40s farther inland. However, with gusty winds, apparent temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperatures. Very cold conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as strong high pressure builds into the region. With the combination of very cold temperatures aloft, diminishing winds, and favorable radiational cooling, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across much of southern New England, leading to widespread frost/freeze conditions. However, since we are outside the climatological growing season, our frost/freeze program ended on October 11, and no Frost or Freeze headlines will be issued. Nevertheless, if you purchased any sensitive tropical plants or palms from the garden center this summer, now would be a good time to bring them indoors! KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through mid next week, but monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid-Atlantic waters which could bring periods of light rain, enhanced northeast winds and building waves/possible erosion to southeast New England. Expansive area of high pressure will maintain itself over most or much of Southern New England through midweek and potentially longer as it becomes reinforced by another strong high pressure coming out of the northern Canadian Prairie region by midweek. This will at least drive dry weather and a gradual warming trend away from the southeast coast with pretty strong diurnal temperature ranges (mild days, cool nights). These conditions could linger into much of the upcoming workweek, away from the southeast coast. However we continue to monitor coastal storminess depicted across the NWP and ensemble suite near the mid-Atlantic waters Sunday. There seem to be an increasing number of model guidance which brings a portion of this feature's moisture northward or northeastward into a weakness in the above surface ridge at some point Monday into Wednesday, mainly impacting the coastal plain and southeast New England. Exactly when and/or for how long it rains is still quite a bit unclear as the rain will be moving into a very dry ridge and should create a sharp NW to SE gradient in rain, but it doesn't look to be a soaking rain in looking at ensemble QPF probabilities. The bigger potential issue is mainly for the southern waters/coastlines with respect to increasingly gusty ENE winds and building rough seas which could lead to beach erosion for east- or northeast-facing beaches. With a persistent easterly fetch over several days, it's a conduit for building waves and latest significant wave heights are in the 12-15 ft range south and east of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. ECMWF probabilities of gale force gusts have increased into the moderate to high (50-70%) range for Monday into Tuesday, while the GFS is more tempered at around 30-50%, with lower probabilities for the northeast waters. It may also turn breezy over the land as well with gusts up to 30 mph at times. We'll re-evaluate the risk for coastal flooding given severaltidal cycles, but astro tides are decreasing through midweek, which should mitigate significant issues. So as it looks right now, there appears to be a growing risk for at least impacts to mariners, including potential gale force gusts that could warrant headlines in the coming days as well as rough seas. Some risk for rains would exist as well for southeast New England, but at the moment rainfall doesn't look particularly significant or substantial at this point. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon into this evening...Moderate confidence. IFR to localized LIFR conditions dominated the region at mid afternoon. There were still a few showers across RI/southeast MA...but otherwise most of the region was in a lull with just areas of drizzle and fog. Main concern is between 22z and 02z as a cluster showers and potentially embedded t-storms sweeps across the region. Greatest risk for thunder will be across CT/RI/SE MA...but that is possible across the rest of the region as well. Brief localized strong wind gusts/heavy rainfall may accompany this cluster of showers even if there is not any lightning. Otherwise...LLWS will continue to be an issue at times into this evening. Overnight into Saturday...High confidence. Conditions should improve to VFR across most areas northwest of I-95 later this evening. Scattered showers will linger well into the overnight hours and even into part of Sat across parts of RI/SE MA...especially across the Cape/Islands allowing lower ceilings lingering a bit in this region. Meanwhile...the rest of the region will see VFR conditions as drier air works into the region. NW winds gusts will increase to between 20 and 30 knots during the day Sat. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 23z and 02z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 22z and 01z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ281>283. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Dooley AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Loconto/Dooley  244 FXUS63 KFGF 161920 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are forecast for portions of west central MN tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Synopsis... Yesterdays cold front has left us with quite cool temperatures today, as many locations are only in the 40s as of early this afternoon. The surface ridge axis is now shifting through eastern ND, quickly propagating to the east. This has resulted in sunny skies area wide. These clear skies will last into the overnight, bringing widespread low temperatures in the 30s. The coldest areas will be in portions of west central MN, where a freeze warning has been issued for temperatures as low as 30 degrees. Over the weekend, upper level ridging will build in. In the low levels, a much warmer airmass will advect in from the west, leading to above average temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the weekend. Temperatures of these values (or even slightly warmer by Wednesday) will persist all the way into the latter portions of next week. The NBM shows high predictability in this long stretch of dry/warm weather, with only a 2 to 4 degree high temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles each day. This agreement makes sense conceptually due to a blocking pattern setting up with ridging over the central US and troughs/lows more or less over each of CONUS's coasts. There are signs late in the week of a transition to southwesterly flow as the western trough digs and starts to propagate eastward. However, how this evolves remains uncertain, so at this timeframe the forecast features a smattering of low end precipitation chances starting Friday. ...Freeze Tonight... The coldest temperatures tonight are forecasted to be in west central MN, which will be in the closest proximity to the southeastward propagating surface ridge. Elsewhere winds pick up quite rapidly after sunset, increasing mixing, likely keeping us a couple of degrees warmer then we otherwise would be. Due to higher winds across the rest of the FA, temperatures, while chilly, should remain above freezing in the mid 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Sunshine has finally returned across the forecast area, leaving us with VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Winds today will shift to from the northwest to the south, remaining under 12 knots. Overnight, winds will actually pick up a bit, and LLWS will be a concern as a corridor of stronger winds aloft track across the region from northwest to southeast. Winds will remain elevated into Saturday morning, with gusts approaching 20 knots through the end of the TAF period at most terminals. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ029>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...Rafferty  401 FXUS63 KIWX 161924 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 324 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds as high as 25 to 35 mph can be expected late this afternoon into early this evening (slightly higher gusts possible near Lake Michigan shoreline briefly). - Patchy frost possible tonight for south central Lower Michigan into portions of northern Indiana. Widespread frost is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark, especially east of Interstate 69. - After the below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures rebound back above normal for much of next work week with dry weather expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Showers associated with some strong low/mid level frontogenesis forcing will continue to exit northwest Ohio the remainder afternoon. The primary focus for additional rainfall will remain back across northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan where secondary surface trough associated with strong positively tilted upper trough is augmenting lake effect rain showers. The focus for these lake effect/enhanced rain showers will shift to northwest Indiana this evening as low level winds veer northerly behind the secondary sfc trough. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for LaPorte and Berrien Counties, although the window for 35 mph plus gusts may be confined to a 20 to 23Z timeframe. Boundary layer mixing may be tempered a bit by the very moist profiles in place, and thus confidence is beginning to diminish somewhat in realizing advisory level winds, particularly after 00Z as a lake-induced thermal trough is likely to sharpen and weaken the low level height gradient. At this time will continue the Wind Advisory and will defer to next shift to monitor for possible cancellation depending on how trends evolve. Lake effect rain showers may persist into the early overnight hours across northwest Indiana as thermal troughing response over southern Lake Michigan matures this evening. The positively tilted nature of the upper trough should allow for synoptic scale mid level subsidence to build in quickly later this evening and overnight resulting in expected diminishing cloud trend outside of lingering lake effect. Low levels should remain well mixed into the early evening hours with some better potential of decoupling overnight. This introduces the risk of some patchy frost development and temperatures dropping into the low-mid 30s tonight. The best chance of frost formation still appears to be across much of southern Lower Michigan into portions of north central Indiana situated between more delayed cloud cover decrease in the west with lake effect, and slightly better mixing persisting east of I-69 into the overnight. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday as the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be positioned downstream of broad longwave ridge axis across central CONUS allowing for extended synoptic scale subsidence. Sfc anticyclone will overspread the region late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with some lighter southwest return flow setting up across the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Frost/freeze potential will need to be considered again for this period. Some minor modification of low level thermal trough is expected Saturday but mainly clear skies and light winds should allow for good radiational cooling Saturday night and a potential of temperatures dropping to the freezing mark. Best chances based on timing of the high pressure still appear to be east of I-69 where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Some combination of Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings will likely be needed Saturday night. Upper flow pattern will become more stagnant and blocked in nature for much of next week with little overall progression in mean positioning of central CONUS ridge. Gradual day to day moderation and max temperatures in upper 60s to lower 70s and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week. Cannot completely rule out some patchy frost concerns Sunday and Monday nights, but this is a low confidence item at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 998mb low is over the interior Northeast, taking its trailing cloud layer with it. Below, lake enhanced stratus lingers along with plenty of lake effect rain showers. Model guidance suggests, and water vapor indicates, a thermal trough is working its way south of Lake Michigan which has resulted in an uptick in lake effect activity. As a result, a fairly steady period of showers is anticipated at KSBN in the near-term, with this activity arriving soon after to KFWA. Guidance is in fair agreement that lake effect activity dissipates near or beyond 00z as NNE flow becomes dominant. MVFR ceilings gradually scatter out along with decreasing wind speeds. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for INZ005>009- 014-017-104-116-204-216. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for INZ006>009-017-018-023>027-032>034-116-216. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Brown  107 FXUS63 KJKL 161915 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost and freeze conditions area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A cold front has entered western portions of the forecast area as of 11 AM EDT. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the boundary, with cooler air upstream. Wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range have been occurring along and just behind the front in portions of western and central KY and have opted to increase wind gusts for the remainder of the day based on these trends. Areas of showers and sprinkles were present mainly behind the boundary. Trends on wind gusts will continue to be monitored. Additional updates were made to temperatures and sky based on recent observation and satellite trends. UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now east of the state while a distinct and well defined cold front is approaching from the west. This has left mostly clear skies around eastern Kentucky as the showers have moved off to the east with the warm front. With plenty of ground moisture around, and patches of clearing in the skies, areas of fog have developed in the valleys this night and become locally dense. Currently, temperatures are quite mild and running in the low to mid 70s for much of the area with some mid to upper 60s noted in a few valley locations. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are rather moist and generally in the low to mid 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first full-latitude trough of the season swinging out of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature steadily works into Kentucky today while starting to close off overhead later this evening and tonight. A core of energy accompanies the southern extent of the trough as it, and its sharp 5h height falls, move through by 06Z Saturday. Benign northwest flow then follows for the rest of the period. Given the very small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into the NBM PoPs as the front moves through. With CAA for the bulk of the period did not see much of an opportunity to improve on the temps or dewpoints. Sensible weather will feature a very changeable day on account of the front moving through early in the day from northwest to southeast accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Even after the front passes and winds switch more northwesterly, a few showers will linger and only slowly clear out west to east. Temperatures peak early today before falling post-frontal leading to a chilly end of the afternoon and evening amid those lingering showers. There will be an upslope component to the post frontal showers that hold on into the night before finally clearing to the east early Saturday. With this new air mass, temperatures will be much cooler during the day, Saturday, despite plenty of returning sunshine. In fact, manyplaces will see temperatures 20 or so degrees colder Saturday afternoon compared to this afternoon. This, along with strong high pressure moving over the area will set the stage for a very chilly night with frost on tap and even some spots expected to hit freezing by dawn Sunday. A frost advisory will likely be needed. The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints were left nearly unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas. The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots. In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Mainly west to northwest winds in the 8 to 15KT range, with some gusts to near 20KT were observed at issuance time. Mainly VFR and MVFR were reported over the CWA, with some instances of IFR at times primarily within showers. The gusty winds will continue for much of the first 6 hours of the period as a cold front gradually departs and an upper level disturbance approaches. Even after the gusts diminish a bit, west to northwest winds at 5 to 12KT linger through 06Z, before winds become north in all areas in the 5 to 15KT range and remain through the end of the period. Rounds of showers or light rain are anticipated at times for most locations through 06Z, before diminishing from northwest to southeast as the disturbance gradually departs to the east. Low clouds and MVFR or lower should linger a bit longer through at least 12Z. Some gradual improvements in category are anticipated from north to south during the last 6 hours of the period as drier air moves into eastern KY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP  166 FXUS64 KOUN 161916 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Freeze Warning in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning. Frost Advisory in the north and west. - Mostly dry with a warming trend next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cool temperatures and gusty northerly winds have been the story today. The wind will become light this evening as mixing decreases and the surface ridge of high pressure moves into northwest Oklahoma this evening. The NBM forecast low temperatures are at the low end of the guidance envelope, but still seem reasonable given the mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight with a floor where temperatures will approach the dewpoint. Temperatures near or slightly below 32 are forecast in Harper and Ellis Counties, so the Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning. It will likely not be a hard or long-duration freeze, but it will be a freeze nonetheless. Have also issued a frost advisory for the portions of northern and western Oklahoma where the forecast low will be in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cooler weather will persist through the weekend with below average temperatures for this time of year. Saturday will be quite cool, but highs will be slightly warmer (but still below average) on Sunday as the surface ridge slides southeast and surface pressures drop across southeastern Colorado increasing the pressure gradient and southerly winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty north winds will continue through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 38 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 36 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 39 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 32 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 35 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008- 010>016-021-022-033-034. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...14  632 FXUS65 KLKN 161909 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1209 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures this weekend * Cooler temperatures next week * Rain chances next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge exiting the region will leave zonal flow aloft, keeping the weather relatively calm through early next week. Temperatures through Monday will remain above normal for this time of year, with highs remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Low temperatures will start in the low 30s tonight, and will continue to rise to the upper 30s/low 40s early next week. If you're looking for a chance to go outside and enjoy the outdoors, the best chances for this are this weekend, as looking into next week we start to see influences of the polar jet. Starting Tuesday, the base of an upper level trough will extend into southern California, bringing plenty of pacific moisture and lift to our region. This will bring chances for precipitation for the remainder of the forecast period, with the highest chances on Thursday. Additionally, there is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. In terms of precipitation types, temperatures remain high keeping it mostly rain, however some mountain peaks will see the potential for some overnight snow. As a result of precipitation and increased cloud cover, high temperatures will drop to the upper 50s and low 60s, while low temperatures will drop to the mid 30s. Models continue to push back the timing of a cold front into late next week, continuing to give low confidence on timing and intensity at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the forecast through Monday. Medium confidence in the precipitation and temperature change next week. Low confidence on the chances of a cold front late next week. && .AVIATION... South/southeasterly gusty winds Friday afternoon, ranging 20-22KTs, will diminish after sunset at KTPH. VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the next 24 hours. No precipitation in the forecast through Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will continue to stay around 5 degrees above normal through Monday afternoon. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Chances of precipitation are expected Tuesday through Thursday bringing mountain snow and valley rain. Isolated chances of thunder are possible with these storms on Tuesday. Humidity and winds remain below the threshold of concern during this time. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...90  502 FXUS62 KMHX 161927 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 327 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nor'easter expected to develop of of the NC coast this weekend. Confidence is increasing regarding track and intensity as well as minor to moderate coastal impacts with vulnerable areas seeing the potential for more significant impacts. Storm Watches now in effect for outer marine zones. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front moves through early Saturday, with a low forming and bringing a potential nor'easter near the coast through the weekend and into next week. 2) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Warnings in effect with Storm Watches for outer marine zones. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore for several days. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast is beginning to come into much greater certainty with this run of the forecast models, especially in regards to a cold front moving through eastern NC on Saturday and then continuing offshore. There is now HIGH confidence that a nor'easter will form offshore and bring impacts to eastern NC in the form of strong winds, high waves, and coastal flooding as well as extremely dangerous marine conditions through the weekend. Uncertainty remains on the back end of the forecast. Exactly how long it lingers offshore and its eventual route upon exit still have low confidence at this time. What we do know is that the alternate scenario that excluded the formation of the low is now gone and as a result the expected values for winds and seas has increased. As far as the cold front is concerned that will be the catalyst for the eventual system, expect winds to shift to northeasterly early Saturday morning brining rain chances to the area for much of the day on Saturday. While amounts are expected to be extreme, a widespread half of an inch to an inch of rain throughout the day is likely. Winds will pick up throughout the day with 25-30 mph gusts common. Values will increase from west to east with areas near the coast experiencing much higher values. A wind advisory in effect for Western Carteret, Mainland Dare and Mainland Hyde Counties from 18z Saturday through 00z Tuesday. For the Core and Outer Banks as well as Downeast Carteret County, a high wind watch is in effect from 00z Sunday through 6z on Monday. 2-4 foot above ground level coastal flooding will be possible with minor to moderate impacts throughout the Outer Banks, Core Banks and Downeast Carteret County. Impacts are expected to both sound and oceanside locales with potentially significant impacts to vulnerable areas on the ocean side. A high surf advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks with breaking waves of generally 8-12 feet expected in the surf zone. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is also expected through much of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2... After record breaking heat the last several days, temperatures are expected to cool significantly. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range with cooler values inland and warmer temperatures near the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s inland just after the frontal passage to the low 50s by the end of the week with coastal locations in the upper 40s to low 50s early in the forecast period to low 50s to low 60s by the end of next week. Winds will remain breezy, particularly in the afternoons depending upon the eventual track of the offshore nor'easter. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A cold front will move through the area brining a shift to north or NNWly winds to all TAFs sitesovernight Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect conditions to remain VFR initially but then begin to dive through MVFR into IFR levels as ceilings lower with the approaching cold front. After sunrise on Saturday expect rain to begin from northwest to southeast and winds to begin gusting to 20-25 kts at all TAF sites with some stronger gusts expected at KMRH closer to the coast. Outlook (Sat night through Mon): Clearing skies Sat night but winds and wind gusts will remain elevated as nor'easter lingers offshore. Confidence in the eventual route of the nor'easter remains uncertain at this time and this will likely have some influence on the aviation forecast through much of next week. More details will become available as confidence increases. && .MARINE... Latest obs show winds beginning to pick up offshore with sustained values of 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts. Latest obs show continuing W/SW winds 5-10 knots with seas mainly 2-3 ft representing the last pleasant boating conditions for quite some time as a cold front is expected to move through the area on Saturday with a low pressure system forming into a potential nor'easter which will linger offshore well into next week. Outlook (Sat through Tues): The aforementioned cold front will bring northerly to NNWerly winds to all of the waters by 12z Saturday. Winds will pick up significantly by saturday afternoon as nor'ester begins the early stages of its genesis over the Gulf Stream. Gale Warnings are now in effect for all waters from Saturday afternoon and will linger into the middle of next week. In addition a Storm Watch is now in effect for the central and southern 20-60 nm Marine Zones from 00z Sunday through 06z on Monday. During this time seas are expected to be anywhere from 8-12 ft in the 0-20 nm zones upwards of 20-25 feet in the outer waters of the 60 nm zones. Wave periods will peak around 13-15 s Sunday and Monday. For now the duration of the event remains extremely uncertain with the possibility of dangerous marine conditions possibly continuing through the entirety of next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ047- 081-195. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ094-194. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for NCZ195-199. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196. High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning for NCZ204-205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ180.Gale Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ182-184. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for AMZ182-184. Gale Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ186-188. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ186-188. && $$ DISCUSSION...RTE AVIATION...RTE MARINE...RTE  547 FXUS65 KABQ 161929 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 129 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A surface high will settle over eastern NM tonight, winds will relax and the high clouds across southeast NM will decrease. Additionally, following last night's backdoor cold front, much drier air has move into the region. This will set up excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight and a widespread freeze is expected. A few locations dropped below freezing last night, namely Las Vegas, Moriarty and Estancia, thus the growing season has ended in those locations and the Freeze Watch was cancelled. Otherwise, the first freeze of the season is still expected for much of central and eastern NM, as well as portions of the Northwest Plateau. Have also added all of Chaves County into the Freeze Warning. A few caveats: Areas around Farmington are not expected to freeze, but areas south of Burnham are. In the Albuquerque Metro, the Sunport and northeast heights are not expected to freeze, but areas around Belen, Los Lunas, the ABQ Valley and near KAEG are expected to freeze. Similarly, KROW may not freeze, but portions of northeast Chaves County are more likely to drop below freezing. A deepening lee side surface trough will develop on Saturday, and the resultant southerly winds will begin the warming trend for eastern NM. A few breezes will be noted across northeast NM, but otherwise, it should be a quiet day with temperatures near to below normal. Saturday night's low temps will trend warmer as well. Given the growing season will likely end for many tonight, and warmer temps forecast, no additional Freeze Watches have been issued. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper low off the west coast of the northern Baja Peninsula will slowly fill and eject northeastward on Sunday and Sunday night. Pacific moisture will advect into NM ahead of the system allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across western NM as soon as Sunday morning. What is left of the system will cross the Four Corners on Monday, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should spread eastward to at least the Central Mtn Chain. Precipitation amounts will be light both Sunday and Monday. All eyes will then be on an upper level low diving southward along the west coast and the continued moisture advection into NM ahead of it. Precipitation coverage should gradually increase Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation coverage is currently expected to be greatest on Thursday and potentially through Friday as the system shifts eastward and large scale ascent increases over NM. PWATs will increase from around 0.6-0.75" on Sun/Mon to 0.8-1.0 by Thu. Snow levels will be high, thus snow is expected only for the highest peaks. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be common elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will persist today behind last night's backdoor cold front. North to northeast winds with gusts around 25-30kt will prevail across eastern NM, while easterly winds with 20-30kt gusts will prevail elsewhere. High clouds across southeast NM will wane tonight, resulting in mostly clear skies areawide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Winds will decrease in speed tonight, then a widespread freeze is on tap Saturday morning. Cool but quiet conditions will be the rule Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday and Monday across central and western NM, with more widespread precipitation expected Tuesday through at least Thursday. Wetting rain is most likely to be spotty through at least Tuesday, but better chances for widespread wetting rainfall exists Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be possible across the highest peaks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 28 66 32 62 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 25 65 36 62 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 28 61 36 62 / 0 0 10 30 Grants.......................... 26 62 33 63 / 0 0 10 20 Quemado......................... 31 63 35 65 / 0 0 20 40 Magdalena....................... 29 58 38 61 / 0 0 5 10 Datil........................... 27 58 34 61 / 0 0 10 30 Reserve......................... 32 67 37 66 / 0 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 34 68 43 68 / 0 0 20 30 Chama........................... 30 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 36 61 42 60 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 29 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 56 26 56 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 11 60 16 61 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 29 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 30 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 31 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 27 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 33 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 26 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 33 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 27 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 34 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 60 36 61 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 29 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 25 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 63 26 66 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 26 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 26 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 26 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 27 56 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 24 67 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 29 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 31 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 28 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 62 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 59 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-217>220-223>225-228-230>241. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34  480 FXUS61 KAKQ 161906 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 306 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated TAF/Aviation discussion for 18z. Wind Advisories have been issued for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck County starting at noon on Saturday. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for most of Hampton Roads and areas up the James River as well from Sunday through Monday night, as confidence in a significant coastal flood event is increasing. Overall, there is still some uncertainty in the forecast beyond Saturday though forecast winds/water levels have increased from Sunday-Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. 4) Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Much cooler with steady light to moderate rain on Saturday. Warm and humid weather prevails this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front over the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic. Strong low pressure is tracking east over the St Lawrence Valley, with a sharpening upper trough over the mid-MS River Valley/Midwest. A broken line of gusty showers and a few tstms have developed just ahead of the front from WV to central PA. Locally, temperatures are in the lower-mid 80s with mid 60s dew pts. Instability is meager with only a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. The front continues to move SE toward the FA this evening before crossing the area tonight. Am still expecting a line of shallow convection to cross the area with the front, which is what most of the CAMs predict. The most likely timing for tstms is between 7 PM-1 AM. While widespread 30-40 mph gusts are likely with the line, the nighttime timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. Will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better kinematics (though less in the way of thermodynamics as sfc heating has been less here). Temps remain in the 70s with a quick drop to around 60F shortly after the FROPA. The front moves well to our southeast Saturday morning while the upper trough becomes a closed low as it tracks into western VA. A large area of light to moderate rain develops ahead of that trough and tracks across the area during the day. Rain likely ends by midday inland, but may linger through the late aftn/early evening near the coast. Additionally, a secondary, stronger surge of CAA will cross the area from mid to late Saturday morning. Therefore, Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon (and could even fall into the lower 50s where it is raining). So, 24 hour temperature changes could be in the neighborhood of 30-35+ degrees from this afternoon-Saturday afternoon! Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy N winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 50 mph along the immediate coast. A Wind Advisory has been issued for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck starting at noon Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There is still some uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to the track and strength of coastal low pressure late this weekend into early next week. Sunday will most likely be dry and cool as the low deepens 100-200 miles east of the NC coast while strong high pressure wedges down from the north. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, though most of the ensemble solutions show the low meandering around 100- 200 miles off the southern VA or NC coast. However, there are still hints (especially from the deterministic GFS and Canadian) that it could retrograde back towards the local area on Monday before moving a bit back out to sea by mid to late week. Precipitation chances have increased on Monday (especially near the coast) and have kept at least some PoPs in the forecast through much of next week. The 50th percentile GFS/Canadian Ensemble QPF is 0.25-1.00" across much of the area on Monday, though the EPS has noticeably less rain. Again, it is important to emphasize that that there is uncertainty and the forecast will change. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. The Wind Advisory for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck is in effect until 8 PM Sunday and will likely need to be extended. As winds become more NE Sunday/Monday, the Advisory may need to be expanded as well. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. KEY MESSAGE 4...Long Duration coastal flood event expected starting as early as Sunday afternoon, but potentially continuing into mid week. Coastal flood watches issued for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower James River with expansion of coastal flood watches likely to other areas tonight or Saturday. North winds to gale force will allow water levels to build first over the lower Bay and Lower James River as early as Sunday afternoon. This will allow for tide anomalies to be 2 to 3 feet above normal astronomical tide. Fortunately, we are currently on the low end of the tide cycle. Even so, moderate flood stage is forecast at Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield with the Sunday high tide. As the winds turn slightly more northeast and increase Sunday night into Monday, expect the anomalies to build and impact the ocean front, as well as other areas in the lower and middle Chesapeake Bay. By Monday, many sites south of Windmill Point and along the ocean front are forecast to be into moderate flooding, including Sewells Pt. Lynnhaven, Jamestown and Smithfield are forecast to major tidal flooding on Monday. Considerable beach erosion is also expected with seas building to 10 to 15 feet. With little change in wind direction and only a slight decrease of wind speed on Tuesday or Wednesday, expect moderate to major tidal flooding to continue into mid week. Note that there is still considerable uncertainty in the tide forecast especially early next week as the exact placement of the low will be very important in what the actual tide values will be. PETSS still has a significant range of solutions for many sites so users need to pay very close attention to the forecasts through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon. The frontal boundary has lifted back north of the region as expected, and breezy W-SW winds to 15-20 kt at RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG through 22z or so. Still expecting a strong cold front to drop across the local area this evening, allowing fora round of convective wind gusts and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two. Have added a Prob30 group to account for convective showers with wind gusts to 30 kt, as well as brief VSBY restrictions and sub-VFR CIGS. A more prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions arrives later Sat morning. Winds shift N-NW post-frontal mainly between 02-07z (10p-3a EDT) with MVFR ceilings and more widespread (stratiform) rain moving into the region. Rain tapers off Saturday morning at SBY, by midday Saturday at RIC, but could linger into the evening at PHF/ORF/ECG. Winds briefly diminish post-frontal, but quickly ramp back up with onset of cold air advection, especially from mid to late morning Saturday through afternoon inland, but through much of the weekend along the coast, gusting to 30-40 kt at ORF/ECG Sat afternoon. Have MVFR to IFR CIGs developing across all terminals (only briefly at SBY). Outlook: After brief improvement, sub-VFR CIGs do look to return/linger across the southeast Sat night into Monday, as a nor'easter develops offshore. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front to pass through the waters tonight. A brief period of gale force winds possible immediately behind the front this evening and overnight. - Widespread northerly gale force conditions start Saturday and continue through Monday and likely beyond as coastal low pressure develops off the coast. - There is the potential for storm force wind gusts on Monday as the low pressure moves north and deepens. Winds are currently steady at SW 10 to 15 kt across the waters this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. However, they are expected to increase even more this evening ahead of the cold front. Have opted to start the SCA in the bay/rivers with forecast issuance this afternoon due to the gusts to 20 kt. Winds will quickly shift to the NW behind the front which should enter the northern waters around 11pm this, then exit the southern waters by 4am Sat morning. The high res guidance suggest that a brief surge to near gale force winds may occur immediately behind the front, which is not unexpected with these type of strong Autumn cold fronts. However, this wind will be short lived and will likely relax before the stronger and more widespread gales move in Saturday morning. If this does occur, we will likely handle with Special Marine Warnings since it will be less than 3 hours in duration. The main change in the model guidance is to ultimately come into better agreement with the coastal low developing off the NC coast later Saturday into Sunday. Before this happens, there will be a period of moderate Gales starting Saturday morning and continuinginto Sunday. The winds are expected to diminish some on Sunday, especially across the far northern waters depending on how far south the low develops. However, will continue to keep gales in place in all zones and in fact extend the gales into Monday night. Regarding early next week, the low is then expected to meander offshore on into Sunday before moving northward (and possibly westward) into Monday. There are still important differences which will be critical to the forecast for late this weekend and especially early next week. The GFS brings the low further north earlier, which would bring potentially a round of storm force gust conditions to at least the central and southern coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower and further south, which would likely delay any storm force gusts during the day on Monday and into Monday Night and keep them even further offshore. Will trend toward the ECMWF and NBM which show the strongest winds Monday into Monday night but keep gusts just below storm force for now. Still, storm watches may need to be issued this weekend if this trend continues. Both models show the low will then meander offshore for several days into mid week with the ECMWF being the closest to the coast and the model that would bring the worst impacts to the local area. GFS keeps the low further offshore but still gale force conditions through mid week and continued high surf/coastal flooding. Needless to say this is now looking like a long duration event with gales likely continuing into mid week if not beyond. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ089-090-524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for VAZ097-098-529. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635-636. Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/MRD AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...LKB  900 FXUS62 KCHS 161910 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through this evening. - 2) Below normal temperatures and gusty winds expected this weekend in the wake of a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through this evening. Today and Tonight: Aloft, the pattern will feature a broad high centered across the western Atlantic and a sharp/digging trough extending across the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The trough will advance across the East CONUS during the day, helping force a strong cold front east-southeast toward the Southeast United States throughout the day and evening, before entering the local area during early morning hours Saturday. Ahead of the front, a somewhat breezy south-southwest sfc wind (gusts to 15-20 mph) will help support temperatures well above normal within the warm-sector, with afternoon highs generally in the mid-upper 80s locally. Daily record highs are at or above 90 at both CHS and SAV (see Climate section), so it remains unlikely that records will be tied or broken. Mild temps (low-mid 70s) will persist ahead of the front this evening, but will quickly cool once fropa occurs late night, generally into the upper 50s inland to low-mid 60s near the coast before sunrise. Latest guidance continues to indicate a limited moisture supply near and shortly post fropa, supporting a few showers with light precip accumulation across northern areas after daybreak Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Below normal temperatures and gusty winds expected this weekend in the wake of a strong cold front. A potent upper-level trough will drive a strong cold front off the coast early Saturday morning. In its wake, strong high pressure centered over the Central Plains will build eastward toward the Ohio Valley, tightening the pressure gradient. Strong cold air advection will begin to take hold Saturday afternoon, dropping temperatures below early-autumn normals. Daytime highs on Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 60s across most inland areas, with lower 70s confined to the far southern Georgia coast. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights will plummet into the 40s inland, with low to mid 50s along the immediate coastline. Sunday will be the coolest day of the stretch despite abundant sunshine, with highs struggling to reach the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will slowly rebound early to mid next week. In addition to the cooler temperatures, breezy conditions will quickly develop behind the front. Winds will increase noticeably across the area Saturday morning as strong surface high pressure builds in from the west. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 30 mph across the area Saturday into Sunday. Slightly higher gusts are possible along the immediate coast and over elevated bridges and overpasses. While winds remains just shy of Wind Advisory criteria, conditions will remain quite gusty. Across Lake Moultrie, cold air moving over the relatively warm lake waters will produce gusts of 25-30 kt and rough chop. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued starting Saturday morning through Sunday evening. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI through at least 10Z Saturday and likely prevail at SAV through 18Z Saturday. However, a cold front will shift across all terminals prior to/near daybreak Saturday, resulting in a sharp wind shift (south-southwest to northwest, then north) and increasingly breezy conditions (gusts 15- 25 kt) mid morning Saturday into early afternoon. A few showers could accompany the front, impacting the CHS/JZI terminals between 10-16Z Saturday. MVFR cigs are expected to arrive behind the front at CHS/JZI, starting around 13Z Saturday and persisting through 18Z. VCSH has been added to CHS/JZI between 10- 13Z, followed by PROB30 groups with showers and low-end MVFR conditions between 13-16Z Saturday. Shower and flight restriction activity is not anticipated at SAV at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Frequent gusts around 25 kt will occur at the terminals Saturday morning into Monday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A strong cold front will approach the Southeast United States today, before reaching the coast late tonight/near sunrise Saturday. Ahead of the front, southwest flow will increase to 10-15 kt through the afternoon with a few gusts around 20 kt possible, primarily across SC waters. Overnight, winds will continue to increase as the pressure gradient tightens near/along the approaching cold front, then sharply change direction to northwest/north by around sunrise. Strong cold air advection near and post fropa will set the stage for sustained 15-20 kt winds with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas will also build during the night, generally to 2-4 ft through sunrise. Extended Marine: A strong cold front will push offshore early Saturday morning as high pressure builds eastward from the Central U.S. Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly through Saturday as intense cold air advection streams over warm sea surface temperatures. A brief period of Small Craft Advisories Saturday morning will quickly escalate to widespread Gale Warnings for all our marine zones out to 60 nm by the afternoon. Strong north- northeast gales are anticipated Saturday night through Monday morning, featuring sustained winds of 25-35 kt with frequent gusts of 35-45 kt. Hazardous seas will build rapidly, peaking at 7 to 11 feet in the nearshore waters and 11 to 15 feet across the outer Georgia waters. Winds will begin to ease late Monday night, but elevated seas will necessitate extended Small Craft Advisories through at least mid-week. High Surf: Prolonged gales and a continuous north-northeast fetch will generate large breaking waves of 5+ feet along area beaches Sunday into Monday, with the highest breakers along the southeast Georgia beaches. High Surf Advisories remain likely for the entire coast. Additionally, prolonged wave action could result in minor to moderate beach erosion. Rip Currents: The combination of strong/persistent gales, elevated seas, and building long-period swell will support a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all area beaches Saturday. A High Risk is expected for all beaches on Sunday, with an elevated risk persisting well into next week as hazardous marine conditions continue. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KCHS: 90/2018 KCXM: 88/2018 KSAV: 91/2018 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EDT Saturday for AMZ360- 362-364-384. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360- 362-364-380-382-384. && $$ BRS/DPB  405 FXUS62 KILM 161904 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 304 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight increases to the wind forecast have resulted in upgraded marine headlines for the offshore waters. Details in the marine section below. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions. A strong cold front will move through tonight into Saturday morning bringing light rain to the area. Light rain/drizzle may remain possible for SE NC into early next week before the nor'easter moves further off to the north. In the meantime, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend. Wind speeds and gusts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with mainly marine impacts expected. Should the wind forecast continue to increase, there is a low possibility for a High Wind Advisory along the immediate coast Saturday through Sunday as sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. The enhanced winds could also lead to dangerous surf conditions (+6 ft breakers), mainly for east-facing beaches, through the weekend. Wind speeds should decrease slightly into early next week. For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR through the next 6 hrs. A strong cold front will move through the area with winds going from SW to N 08-11Z, along with lowering CIGs (MVFR expected/IFR possible later into Saturday). Rain showers should develop ~12Z but rain should be light so not expecting VSBY restrictions. N winds will be strong Saturday, especially into the afternoon, with gusts near 30 kts possible. Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions through Saturday night. A nor'easter to our east will maintain northeasterly flow, but should be far enough away to prevent sub-VFR conditions from materializing. && .MARINE... A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters Saturday morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by Saturday afternoon. The nor'easter will linger to our east through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, marine conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on the pressure gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ280. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...LEW MARINE...LEW  324 FXUS63 KABR 161902 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low temperatures tonight will range in the low to mid 30s with patchy to area of frost possible. - The winds will pick up tonight into Saturday, with a 40-70% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An area of high pressure over the region is producing cool temperatures across the forecast area with readings in the 40s and 50s. These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. With the cool atmosphere, temperatures could fall quickly upon sunset, with reading in the 30s. Solely based the forecast low temperatures, have issued a frost advisory for the James River Valley, and a freeze warning further east. While marginal conditions, will lean on the side of caution for these headlines. As the surface high shifts southeast of the region, the forecast area will see increasing southerly winds, with gusts possible exceeding 35 to 45 mph along the higher terrain areas. There is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. The winds, along with some temperature advection may cause temperatures to become steady or slowly rise Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures will move into the area for the weekend with highs reaching the upper 50s and 60s. The upper level flow pattern through next week favors above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A deepening trough along the west coast will cause upper level ridging over the Northern Plains through most of the next work week. The west coast trough should move across the desert southwest and eventually into the area by the end of the work week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid TAF period. Northerly winds with gusts of 15 to 25 knots at KABR and KATY will subside later this afternoon, before shifting to the southwest tonight. All terminals will see south-southwesteasterly winds with gusts exceeding 15-20 knots later tonight into Saturday morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ020>023. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-018-019. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...17  604 FXUS63 KBIS 161930 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions through the early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cyclonic flow is found across the northern Plains this afternoon, with clearing skies as high pressure builds in over western North Dakota this afternoon. With the surface pressure gradient tightening between this approaching surface high and an exiting surface low to our east, breezy south winds sustained around 15 to 20 MPH and gusting as high as 30 MPH have developed. Breezy winds are expected to linger overnight as we remain fairly well mixed and the surface gradient is slow to relax. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast from the mid 40s in the James River Valley, up to the lower to mid 50s west. Dry conditions are expected across North Dakota, especially in the southwest where relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 percent range. With the gusty south winds this afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early evening. Chilly overnight conditions are expected again with the clear skies over the forecast area, though the sustained winds are expected to prevent another widespread freeze like we saw last night. A building upper level ridge across the Great Plains this weekend will promote mild and dry weather across much of western and central North Dakota. Gusty south to southwest winds sustained around 15 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will persist over much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon, though are anticipated to rapidly diminish through the early evening. With the warm forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Saturday is expected to be even more dry than Friday, with minimum relative humidity dropping as low as 15 to 20 percent across much of the southwest. With the lower winds on Saturday, sub near critical fire weather conditions are currently expected, though we will continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days. The upper level ridge is then expected to begin flattening through the day on Sunday as a northern stream waves passes through the Canadian Prairies. While highs in the 60s are still anticipated in the afternoon, clearing skies and very light winds could allow for another widespread freeze across much of the area Sunday night through Monday morning. Current ensemble probabilities of dropping to or below freezing is around 20 to 40 percent across much of the north and portions of the southwest Monday morning. With zonal flow then favored through the first half of the coming week, mild and dry weather is anticipated to continue through at least the mid week. Through this period, a Pacific Low is expected to make landfall in the southwestern CONUS before cutting through the Rockies up toward the northern Plains. Some variation in timing and relative strength of this upper level feature is found within the ensemble, but overall chances for precipitation is anticipated to increase starting Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected at KMOT, KBIS, KJMS early this evening until just after midnight CST. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected to develop over portions of western and central North Dakota this afternoon through this evening, with sustained speeds up to 20knots and gusts up to 30 knots, before somewhat diminishing overnight through Saturday morning. Winds will redevelop across central North Dakota late Saturday through the end of TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam  855 FXUS63 KMKX 161937 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Blustery north winds gusting to 40 MPH will linger this afternoon, mainly near the lakeshore. - High-end gale force winds are expected over Lake Michigan through this evening. A few waterspouts may occur as well, mainly over southern portions of the lake. - Temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 inland later tonight into early Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas, with a Frost Advisory in far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. - Southwest gales may occur Saturday night into Sunday night over far northern portions of Lake Michigan. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tonight through Sunday night: Scattered to numerous showers will linger this afternoon, as the backside of the southeastward-moving 500 mb shortwave trough shifts through the region. Forecast soundings are saturated in the low levels, with steep low level lapse rates and low freezing levels around 3000 to 4000 feet AGL. Thus, some graupel may occur at times with these showers. This activity should gradually dissipate by late afternoon and early evening, as drier air moves into the area via cold air advection on the gusty north winds. Some northerly gusts to 40 MPH may also occur mainly near the lake this afternoon, with the good low level mixing with the steep lapse rates. Skies should gradually clear out tonight, as the 500 mb trough shifts southeast and an axis of surface high pressure shifts into the region. This should also bring weakening winds, becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. This should allow for low temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees over most of the area, with lower 30s for far southeast Wisconsin near Lake Michigan. Thus, kept the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory going as is for later tonight into early Saturday morning. It may get into the middle 20s toward northwest parts of the area. Cover or bring indoors any sensitive plants. The high will gradually shift southeast of the region Saturday into Sunday night, with southwest winds developing. Northwest flow at 500 mb will become more zonal during this period as well. This should allow for dry conditions this weekend, with temperatures moderating from the middle 50s Saturday to the lower to middle 60s Sunday. Lows in the middle to upper 30s are forecast for Saturday night, but the southwest winds should remain high enough to limit most frost potential. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Monday through Friday: 500 mb cluster analysis generally shows an anomalous 500 mb ridge developing somewhere over the Upper Midwest or Western Great Lakes regions by the middle to later portions of next week. This should allow for the surface high to gradually shift east northeast of the region during this period, keeping generally southerly winds over the area. This should result in steady warming of temperatures during the week, with ensemble members supporting highs well into the 60s to around 70 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps into the lower 70s inland Thursday into Friday. Ensemble members also show a dry period for most of the week. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered to numerous showers will linger this afternoon, and some graupel may occur at times with these showers. This activity should gradually dissipate by late afternoon and early evening, as drier air moves into the area on gusty north winds. Skies should gradually clear out tonight, as an axis of surface high pressure shifts into the region. This should also bring weakening winds, becoming light and variable overnight into early Saturday morning. Temperatures near to below freezing are expected overnight into early Saturday morning. The high will gradually shift southeast of the region Saturday into Sunday night, with southwest winds developing. This should allow for dry conditions this weekend. Southwest winds will develop on Saturday, with some gusts near 20 knots in the afternoon. These winds should linger into Sunday and become more gusty. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure around 29.4 inches will continue to move well east of the region tonight, as strong high pressure around 30.6 inches remains over the Central Plains. North gales are expected to linger into this evening across Lake Michigan, before tapering off later tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan until 1 AM CDT Saturday morning, and until 10 PM CDT this evening for the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed after the Gale Warning expires into later tonight, for lingering gusty north winds and elevated waves. Scattered to numerous showers will linger into this evening across the lake, with a few thunderstorms and a waterspout possible over the south half of Lake Michigan. As the high shifts toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in south central Canada, shifting toward and into Hudson Bay on Sunday. This may bring southwest gales to far northern portions of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday night. High pressure around 30.5 inches should develop east northeast of the region next week, bringing dry conditions and light to modest winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  234 FXUS63 KDTX 161901 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers with gusty northwest winds this evening. - Turning colder tonight with low temperatures Saturday morning reaching the low to mid 30s. This will lead to some areas of frost. - Cooler conditions exist Saturday, then turning warmer Sunday into next week. No rain expected through this time. && .DISCUSSION... High amplitude longwave trough on pace to pivot across the region this evening. Strong cold front attendant to the main height fall center noted accelerating southeast across the local area this afternoon. A few pockets of showers will continue to emerge over the next several hours as the frontal slope and trailing cold air advection engage sufficient resident moisture depth. Improvement in mixing depth within the immediate wake of this front will also provide a greater window for gusts to exceed 30 mph during the evening hours, particularly across the northern thumb. A secondary brief lake effect response likely off lake Huron, as a short window for meaningful shower production occurs within a zone of convergence along the eastern thumb through at least the first half of the night before low level flow veers sufficiently to direct activity offshore. Progressive clearing trend through the back half of the night as the notably colder/drier post-frontal environment gains traction with time. Latest NBM guidance offers a general spread in projected low temperature Saturday morning ranging from sub-freezing in the Saginaw valley to mid 30s portions of metro Detroit and near the immediate shoreline locations. While a persistent low level gradient may prove more detrimental at times for frost formation, in collaboration with neighboring offices still operating within the end of the growing season, will elect to highlight appropriate frost/freeze headlines based on projected low temperature. Seasonably cold airmass entrenched to start the weekend period, marked but sub-freezing temperatures at 850 mb. Surface ridging in control beneath prevailing mid level northwest flow affords deep layer dry and stable conditions, translating into a high degree of insolation potential. Despite this, existing thermal profile will simply support highs of lower 50s - or a solid 10 degrees below average. Light winds emerging from the southwest Saturday night as the surface ridge slips east. This may offer some limitation to radiational cooling potential, but with minimum temps Sunday morning still arriving in the mid 30s given the magnitude of the existing colder profile. This will afford some areas of frost. Ensuing warming trend starting Sunday as existing low level southwest flow establish a pattern of warm air advection beneath a building upper height field. The strength of the advective process will bring temperatures back closer to average for mid October. A high magnitude deep layer dry and stable environment will exist through much of the upcoming work week, as conditions remain governed by low and mid level ridging. This ensures precipitation free conditions during this time. Moderating thermal profile magnified by existing upper ridging will lend to above average temperatures throughout this period. Highs mid 60s to around 70 degrees, with minimum temps in the 40s. && .MARINE... Strong cold advection is ongoing this afternoon as low pressure quickly departs to the east. As the depth of cold air increases over the warm lakes, increasing instability and the strengthening northerly wind field will allow stronger gusts to reach the surface through this evening. Model guidance is still in line with max gusts on the order of 35 to 40 kt over Lake Huron, especially over thesouthern basin where fetch is maximized. Confidence has increased to see a period of marginal gales over Lake St. Clair as well, and the Gale Warning has been expanded to include Lake St. Clair as well as all of Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for western Lake Erie. Wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight and continues to weaken through Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure extends in from the Midwest. The ridge then quickly shifts into the Ohio Valley, pairing with a deep low over Hudson Bay to produce a strong WSW pressure gradient over the local area late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday afternoon remains a target for potential gusts to 35 kt gales over Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron. Will allow current headlines to expire before issuing any additional headlines for this period. The high pressure then gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine conditions early next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 AVIATION... Nuanced aviation forecast this afternoon given the highly variable environment as it relates to ceilings, gusts, and shower potential. During this on-going lull, winds have trended weaker with a distinct absence in gusts, but this should be temporary as the secondary cold front makes further inroads this evening. The upstream cold advection steepens temperature profiles and promotes renewed mixing, favoring gusts in excess of 25 knots, at times. Gradient winds also respond accordingly, both in increased magnitude and veered directionality, eventually becoming northerly. Could see brief heavier rainfall rates with the shower activity positioned along the front, before drier air eventually fills in behind the boundary. Lake moisture flux complicates the drying/clearing rate, but should eventually see an aggressive decrease in cloud coverage overnight to reach a SKC condition. Gusts also drop-off nocturnally as stabilization occurs in tandem with the departure of the stronger low-level wind field, while prevailing speeds appear slightly slower to respond. High pressure builds rapidly from The Plains to Appalachia on Saturday ensuring a low cloud fraction, weaker winds, and a shift back to WSW flow. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms are forecast today or tonight. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet today and through the first half of tonight. * Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded today. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ047-048-053- 054-060>062. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ049-055-063- 068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  522 FXUS63 KUNR 161907 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 107 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather expected through early next week - Above average temperatures return for the weekend && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mild and dry afternoon on tap as upper level ridge builds in the western US. Drier weather and warming temps expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build. With humidities dropping into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow, elevated fire wx conditions may develop over portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD where breezy southwest winds will develop in the afternoon. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late in the weekend. Closed upper low makes its way onshore over southern CA by Sunday. This system transforms to an open wave as treks northeastward across the desert Southwest and the Rockies. It should pass to our south early in the week with the main impacts being breezy southeasterly winds across portions of our area Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures next week will continue to be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s to 70s across much of the area. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1127 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Helgeson  682 FXUS65 KGGW 161931 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 131 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking on Saturday. - A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures back closer to normal for next week. - Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... As a surface high exits our region, a weak surface trough will be present to transport cooler temperatures into our CWA throughout today. A high pressure center aloft, causing a weak rex block configuration in the southwest to form will promote NW flow aloft for the time being. A ridge will then build and disrupt this NW flow aloft; this will cause veering winds to flow SW aloft will usher in temperatures to potentially reach the mid-70s on Saturday; upper-level perturbations may locally enhance forecast temperatures. The rex block setup in the southwest US will be short-lived as the low ejects back into the main jet; the flow will not be conducive to maintain warm temperatures without the influence of the ridge. On Sunday, expect a drop in temperatures with a cold front Sunday morning, coinciding northwesterly flow from Canada. High pressure filters in behind the cold front, bringing warmer than average temperatures into Monday, onward. An upper-level trough enters the synoptic picture, come Tuesday. The trough digs southward throughout the western US, creating ridging conditions associated with SW flow aloft. Anticipate slightly warmer than average temperatures to advect from the southwestern US into our CWA. Expect dry, mostly sunny conditions throughout the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: - There is high confidence in conditions remaining unchanging throughout the forecast period, at least until Wednesday evening. - Temperatures deviating higher in latest runs of NBM for next week. - After Wednesday, NWP guidance begins to prompt obvious uncertainty between the GEFS and EPS, as for PoPs, heights, and a wider spread of temperatures are seen. FINDLEY && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR Discussion: Generally clear skies expected through the TAF cycle with some brief VFR clouds Saturday morning. Wind: South to southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening then decreasing overnight. Winds in KGGW will transition to a southeasterly direction tonight then veer back towards the west-southwest by afternoon. Some gusty conditions are possible around the end of the forecast period, particularly in KSDY and KGDV. LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible around the KGDV terminal between 07Z and 13Z Saturday morning with the highest confidence being between 09Z and 12Z. Areas around KSDY may also experience some LLWS between 04Z and 10Z, but confidence is too low to be put into the TAF. KENZ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  810 FXUS66 KMTR 161936 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1236 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values. Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by early afternoon. Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s (attributing to the low relative humidities). For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week, resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than 15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming days. What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms." && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Currently VFR. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period due to overnight/morning offshore flow. Onshore flow will return with the afternoon sea breeze. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southeasterly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow will prevail during the overnight and morning hours with onshore flow returning with the afternoon sea breeze. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with gusty drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. SNS will be slower to return to onshore flow, but it is expected by this afternoon with the return of the sea breeze. Drainage flow will return tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail Friday, increasing to become strong across the northern outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday. Moderate seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become rough across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain is expected Monday into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. KR && .BEACHES... Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds) southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf with strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  004 FXUS63 KFSD 161941 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 241 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly winds will continue to gradually taper down this afternoon from west to east. - High (over 90%) chance of widespread frost tonight to early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory has been issued for central and south- central South Dakota for tonight, with a Freeze Warning elsewhere. - Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow with gusts of 25-35 mph expected, locally higher over the Buffalo Ridge. These breezy winds coupled with drier air could lead to marginally elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoon. - Mainly dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The last of the clouds will continue to diminish over northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota over the hour or two, leading to plenty of sunshine across the area! This sunshine should allow most areas to reach the lower 50s for highs, and decreasingly breezy winds will make for a cool, but fairly pleasant fall evening. Winds will be decreasing due to a surface high pressure system moving across the region. These lighter winds coupled with clear skies will mean temperatures will drop rather quickly after the sun sets. By the late night hours though, the high pressure system will quickly slide eastward and allow for the return of southeasterly winds to the area. This should halt the faster cooling and allow for areas especially over south- central South Dakota to remain above freezing, though still remain cold enough for frost. Thus, a frost advisory will be in effect for these areas tonight. Farther east, do think the slight uptick in southeasterly winds will not make it in time to prevent these areas from dropping to 32 degrees or lower. Generally speaking, the farther east you go across the area tonight, the longer it will take for the slightly elevated winds to arrive and thus the colder you'll get. Though there is still some lingering uncertainty on the westward extent of the freezing temperatures, current thoughts are that clear skies, light winds, and dry air during the early overnight will lead to these areas dropping to freezing by daybreak. All that said, frost is expected across the entire area overnight. Southeasterly winds will continue to increase heading into the day tomorrow as the high pressure system slides east and a low pressure system develops off the northern Rockies. Winds won't be as strong as what we've seen this morning and this past night, but expect most areas to see gusts in the 25-35 mph range during the day on Saturday. A few gusts to 45 mph will be possible over the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, but this is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant wind headlines at this time, though trends will be monitor. Another thing to monitor will be locally elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Warmer temperatures are expected especially over south-central South Dakota, with highs in the 60s and possibly near 70. This combined with dew points well down into the 30s will lead to relative humidity values just below 30% in south-central South Dakota. Elsewhere, relative humidity values will be around 30-50% Saturday afternoon. This could all result in locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly in cured grasses and cropland. Ridging aloft builds in through the weekend, allowing for a seasonal weather pattern to return that will also continue into early next week. Sunday looks to be the better weekend day for outdoor activities with diminishing winds, sunny skies, and highs in the middle 60s. A weak upper wave will ride into the central Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night, though probabilities of measurable rainfall with this system is low (<20%) and focused near and east of I-29 according to latest LREF probabilities. After this weak system passes through, ridging builds back in aloft, and this combined with continued southerly flow will lead to even warmer temperatures by the middle of the week. Highs by Wednesday and Thursday will potentially climb into the 70s across parts of the area. The NBM is a bit more aggressive than other ensembles, though is only warmer by a few degrees comparatively speaking. Either way, forecast temperatures will likely get refined as mid week approaches as more smaller scale details come into better focus. Looking out to the end of next week, the weather pattern may turn a bit more active as guidance indicates a western trough potentially ejecting into the area, though the timing of this is where models really diverge. The broad 20-40% PoPs as highlighted by the NBM next Friday is largely in line with 16.12Z LREF, though details with this system will once again become more clear as we approach the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. Northerly winds will continue to diminish from west to east through the remainder of the afternoon, with winds turning light and variable this evening. Another push of higher winds, this time with a southeasterly direction, will move across the area from west to east heading into tomorrow morning. Winds with this second push won't be as strong as what we've seen this morning, but gusts to 20-30 kts can be expected by the end of the period. Slightly stronger wind gusts to 35 kts are also expected by the end of the period along the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064. MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...Samet  041 FXUS63 KGLD 161943 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 143 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current satellite imagery and surface analysis show a building ridge west of the Rocky Mountains and north-northwesterly winds at the surface. Clear skies and breezy conditions continue for the county warning area (CWA) through the afternoon with gusts around 30 mph possible. Clear skies continue overnight with overnight low temperatures forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire CWA through Saturday morning. After sunrise, a warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper-level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens for the western CWA. Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 60s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s for the area. Sunday continues to be warm with high temperatures again forecast in the 60s to 70s. Low temperatures are forecast in the 40s. Skies will be clear with breezy conditions possible for the eastern CWA. Wind gusts around 25 mph are possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning. Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Conditions will be breezy and mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 25 knots possible through around sundown. Winds will remain light and variable until around 06Z when they become more out of the southwest. Light winds will remain mostly out of the southwest, but pick up towards the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots possible. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Rhoades  021 FXUS64 KEPZ 161942 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 142 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front has pushed through today bringing continued breezy and windy conditions with well below normal temperatures. - High wind warning and wind advisory still in effect through tonight for southwest New Mexico. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible in New Mexico bootheel. - Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today, we will see our coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows dipping down to the low 40s through much of the lowlands. Area mountains will see subfreezing conditions with the Sacs reaching the low 20s in some parts during tomorrow's early morning. These temperature trends are about 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. High temperatures will rebound by the end of the weekend. Widespread sustained easterly winds between 20 and 30 mph will continue this afternoon and evening with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times in parts of southern Hidalgo county. Blowing dust remains a concern through this evening coinciding with the greatest wind threat in southern Hidalgo county according to the signatures in the RRFS. A Blowing Dust Advisory near the Lordsburg Playa, NM Bootheel, and Luna county is in effect through 8 PM tonight. Winds subside and precip chances are rather slim for most of the weekend with greater chances favoring the western half of the CWA on Sunday morning as a developing upper level low pushes east. This low deepens considerably over the course of next week bringing with it increasing chances for precip. Flooding is possible with areawide rain and PWs reaching around 1 inch. Confidence remains low for midweek rain impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions will start to slowly decrease tonight. Winds out in western NM (like KDMN) and the higher terrain stays quite breezy tonight. Saturday will become breezy as well but not to the level that we saw last night or today. Breezier winds out in KDMN tomorrow afternoon and continued dry conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds remain breezy to windy today sustained between 25-30 mph, before subsiding late this evening. Lighter winds Saturday afternoon except locations bordering Arizona. Light winds of 5-10 mph persist each afternoon through mid-week next week. Min RH's will begin to rise over the weekend starting in the upper teens in the lowlands and reaching the 20s in higher terrain. On Sunday, these values increase as more moisture filters into the area. By next week, rain chances will continue to increase putting min RH's over 40% by Wednesday. Ventilation rates range from good to very good today and drop to poor to good tomorrow. Rates Sunday will be poor becoming poor to good early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40 Deming 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40 West El Paso Metro 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30 Hurley 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30 Cliff 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40 Mule Creek 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40 Faywood 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30 Hachita 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20 Antelope Wells 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  050 FXUS63 KDMX 161943 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds gradually diminish into this evening. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rain showers this morning were a bit more widespread than initially thought at this time yesterday but have since diminished this afternoon. The gusty north to northwest winds remain with sustained winds around 15-30 mph, and gusts to 25-40 mph. Gusts have started to come down in northern Iowa and the highest gusts as of early afternoon were in central Iowa. These gusts will continue to diminish gradually through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Temperatures today have been chilly as expected with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s and feel-like temperatures with the gusty winds only in the 40s. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with evening activities experiencing temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s and feel-like temperatures largely in the 30s, even with the wind diminishing. You'll certainly want to take those jackets and blankets should you be attending any outdoor events tonight! Overnight lows tonight will similarly be chilly and as has been advertised over the last several days, near to just above/below freezing. Confidence in the widespread 32 degrees or below temperatures is not as high as it was this time yesterday. The surface high pressure swinging through the region is not quite as far north and moves out quicker. This has decreased the opportunity for prime radiational cooling. In northern to portions of western Iowa, this means the pressure gradient will increase sooner allowing for winds to begin increasing again during the later overnight. The faster departure of the high also means winds out of the southwest return in much of the area prior to daybreak Saturday. As noted on the previous shift, there is also a steep inversion that remains in place through the night. All this to say, we may not drop off as efficiently or as low as we otherwise could have. It will still be the coldest night of the season so far with a widespread frost expected. Temperatures themselves may only near or fall just below freezing in some locations and be at or just above in others. Rural areas have the better chances to fall below while urban areas may be slightly warmer. Kept the Freeze Warning as is with the chance that these near 33 degree temperatures in portions of central/southeast Iowa may be able to dip back to that 32 degree mark and any sensitive vegetation is likely to be affected regardless. Some patchy fog may also be possible but confidence is low with the increasing winds and residence time of the high pressure. Saturday will feature ample sunshine and start a warming trend again as highs climb back towards the upper 50s to low 60s. As noted, winds out of the southwest will be breezy, especially for the northwest half of the area with gusts to around 15-30 mph, the highest gusts in the north/northwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A continued warming trend is expected Sunday and beyond. Temperatures return to the 60s to end the weekend and start the new work week and then climb to the 70s by midweek. Outside of some breezy conditions and clouds at times next week as systems beneath the upper ridge near the region, the going forecast remains pleasant and dry. Rain chances then start to return late next week or weekend with details to be refined over the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread scattered to broken MVFR ceilings remain across the area early this afternoon and will gradually trend towards low VFR through the rest of the afternoon. Skies will then gradually clear from late afternoon into the evening with VFR conditions then expected through the rest of the TAF period. Any lingering light rain/sprinkles remain in portions of east to southeast Iowa but are not bringing much in the way of impacts. Gusty winds out of the northwest this afternoon will also gradually decrease with gusts of 25-35 knots initially becoming less than 20 knots by late afternoon. Winds then become light and variable later this evening into the overnight before increasing again slightly and turning out of the southwest on Saturday morning. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05  322 FXUS63 KMPX 161947 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 247 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. - Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures warm well above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Clear skies & light winds tonight will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 30s, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight through 9 AM Saturday across the entire area, with the exception of the inner core of the Twin Cities metro. Southwesterly winds could pick up earlier in the night across western Minnesota & keep temperatures a few degrees above freezing, but HRRR & AIFS forecasts still suggests freezing temperatures are likely here albeit closer to midnight instead of Saturday morning. Tonight's freeze will effectively end the growing season across much of the region, with our next shot a widespread freeze likely not coming until November, so take care to protect remaining sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected. The cold spell will be brief as the high pressure departs to the east and gusty southwest winds develop through Saturday morning. Wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by the afternoon along with temperatures warm into the low 60s across western Minnesota & upper 50s elsewhere. This combination of gusty winds, warmer temperatures, & afternoon humidity values approaching 30% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The greatest concern will be across western Minnesota, where the warmest & windiest conditions are expected along with drier fuels that missed Thursdays soaking rain. Temperatures continue warming into next week as upper-level ridging strengthens across the central CONUS. Highs in the low to mid 70s are likely by the end of the week, around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October. Dry weather looks to dominate the period with any appreciable rain not unlikely until next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Visible satellite trends over the last 2 hours show a rapid reduction in clouds, especially across central and northern Minnesota. This clearing will spread south this afternoon, resulting in widespread clear skies and VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Strong northerly winds continue to start the period, though will quickly drop this afternoon and become light and variable by this evening for most locations. Winds will shift out of the southwest by tomorrow morning, becoming gusty again tomorrow afternoon. KMSP...Clouds may clear earlier than 21z. Northwest winds gust to 30 kts for the first hour of the TAF, then gusts are expected to weaken and become less frequent through the afternoon. Winds become light and variable by 02-03z, and then increase out of the southwest after sunrise tomorrow. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice- Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Hennepin-Ramsey. WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonightto 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk- St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...BED  275 FXUS64 KMOB 161946 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Have made a few updates to the forecast. First, with higher moisture levels moving inland a bit further, convection has formed further inland over our coastal counties, so have bumped PoPs up there. Also, due to a few yellow rip current reports, have bumped the Rip Risk up to moderate for today into tonight. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Monday night, a deep upper trough passes over the Southeast later today through tonight, with a strong cold front currently moving across central Mississippi at this time, moving across and south of land portions of the forecast area this afternoon and marine waters this evening into the overnight hours in response. A drier airmass over the forecast area at this time (precipitable h20 levels 1.5" along the coast to 1.1" along the northern border of the forecast area). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters, as surface high pressure moving over the Mississippi River to the Eastern Conus, with a stronger surface ridge building south along the Appalachians in response to an upper level ridge moving over the Mississippi River and building. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a wind advisory for Friday night through Saturday. Northeast to northeast winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values possible are possible. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid 80s this afternoon dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Some rebounding occurs Monday, as the upper ridge begins to build and northerly winds ease. Low temperatures behind the front's passage drop into the mid 40s north of Highway 40 to mid/upper 50s south of I-10 to the coast, remaining so into the coming week. For Tuesday on, the upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to build. A nor'easter developing on the East Coast later in the weekend into the coming week will help to limit the eastward movement of the upper ridge and its effects, and evens shifts the ridge west over the Plains as it moves onshore over the southern Atlantic seaboard. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line, closer to the upper ridge axis. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow bringing weak, but a bit cooler, northeasterly flow, and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on areabeaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening hours may cause brief reductions in ceilings an visibilities over portions of the coastal counties. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. The main impact to operations over the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front moving through the area this evening. Winds will increase rapidly out of the north (around 00Z-02Z for the TAF sites) to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low-level wind shear may also become a concern by Saturday morning with 0-2000 ft shear potentially reaching 25-30 knots, but just below threshold at this time. Gusty north winds will continue through the end of the period. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow today quickly becomes a strong to very strong northerly later this afternoon into tonight behind a cold front moving across the forecast area. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force, along with some area seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters tonight into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday as the stronger winds shift south. A Small Craft is in effect after the Gales goes down, lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Also, any areas with debris still on the ground over the western Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama, will be at added risk. A Fire Weather Warning is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 70 50 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 55 72 54 71 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 58 72 55 70 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 69 47 70 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 49 67 46 68 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 20 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266. FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$  302 FXUS65 KGGW 161947 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 147 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking on Saturday. - A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures back closer to normal for next week. - Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... As a surface high exits our region, a weak surface trough will be in place to advect cooler temperatures into our CWA today. A high pressure center aloft, causing a weak rex block configuration in the southwest US, will promote NW flow aloft. A ridge will then build and disrupt this NW flow aloft, causing winds to veer SW throughout Saturday. Ridging conditions with SW flow aloft, will usher in warmer temperatures. Upper-level perturbations may locally heighten forecast temperatures. The rex block setup in the southwestern US will be short-lived as a shortwave trough ejects back into the main flow; causing the flow to produce conditions that cannot maintain warm temperatures, due to the absence of a ridge. On Sunday, expect a drop in temperatures with a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, with northwesterly flow from Canada. High pressure filters in behind the cold front, bringing warmer than average temperatures into Monday, onward. An upper-level trough enters the synoptic picture come Tuesday, digging from the Gulf of Alaska into the desert southwest region. This trough will cause SW/SSW flow aloft, creating ridging conditions aloft for our CWA. Anticipate slightly warmer than average temperatures to advect their way from the southwestern US to our region. Expect dry, mostly sunny conditions throughout the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: - There is high confidence in conditions remaining unchanging throughout the forecast period. - Temperatures deviating higher in latest runs of NBM, regarding next week. - After Wednesday, NWP guidance begins to prompt obvious uncertainty between the GEFS and EPS, as for PoPs, heights, and a wider spread of temperatures are seen. FINDLEY && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR Discussion: Generally clear skies expected through the TAF cycle with some brief VFR clouds Saturday morning. Wind: South to southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening then decreasing overnight. Winds in KGGW will transition to a southeasterly direction tonight then veer back towards the west-southwest by afternoon. Some gusty conditions are possible around the end of the forecast period, particularly in KSDY and KGDV. LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible around the KGDV terminal between 07Z and 13Z Saturday morning with the highest confidence being between 09Z and 12Z. Areas around KSDY may also experience some LLWS between 04Z and 10Z, but confidence is too low to be put into the TAF. KENZ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  370 FXUS66 KMFR 161948 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1248 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with today being the warmest * Elevated fire weather conditions for eastside areas and northern California through the weekend * Below normal temperatures for much of next week * Rainfall chances increase early next week with the coast having the highest probability for measurable amounts && .DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)... The upper level pattern is noted by a ridge of high pressure over the region. This ridge is helping maintain the well above normal temperatures we have been experiencing and will continue to see today. For example, Medford is forecast to reach ~86 for a high today which puts us about 16 degrees above normal. Yesterday we ended up being about 19 degrees above normal in Medford. The upper level high will move eastward tonight resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but still above normal by about 5-6 degrees. Additionally, as the high moves eastward, a dry cold front will pass through the region tomorrow. Its unlikely to see much--if any--rainfall but parts of Coos & Douglas County could see a few light rainfall showers that may squeeze out a trace to hundredth of an inch. A stronger system moves into the area on Monday. Model consensus stalls the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south from the main flow, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. This path is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will likely be the main area to see rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low sags south, but as the low sags south we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside areas middle parts of next week. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much--if not all--of the rainfall associated with this system. Will need to reevaluate if the system changes trajectory, but at this time we are not anticipating this to be a heavy rainfall producer for the forecast area. Areas along and near the coast could see around tenth of an inch of rainfall Monday into Monday night. Then light amounts of upwards near a tenth for eastside areas through middle parts of the week. Overall, this is a low impact forecast, but the above normal temperatures and breezy wind speeds combined with low RH through the afternoon hours will lead to at least an elevated concern for fire weather conditions. This will likely be the biggest potential impact in the forecast if a fire starts. Fortunately, we are not seeing any significant wind speeds which should help limit fire spread if we happen to get any new fire starts. -Guerrero && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected to begin this TAF period, but low ceilings are expected to impact KOTH with LIFR/IFR conditions (80% chance), and possibly MVFR ceilings (40% chance) for KRBG. Some uncertainty exist for the Umpqua basin as clouds spill in from the coast but we are expecting conditions to deteriorate for the basin. In other words, less confidence for KRBG to be impacted by BKN/OVC low clouds compared to coastal areas. Farther inland, both KMFR and KLMT are expected to be VFR throughout the valid TAF period. Otherwise, overall light wind speeds expected through this cycle. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub- advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through Saturday morning. North winds increase and a new swell arrives Saturday afternoon. This will result in steep to very steep seas which includes a Hazardous Seas Warning for much of the southern waters where wind speeds will be strongest, and conditions will be hazardous to small craft from areas around Cape Blanco northward to around Reedsport. Thereafter, a brief break is anticipated Sunday night, but Monday afternoon into Monday night, a west swell builds into the area which will likely lead to steep seas around 11 to 14 feet for much of the waters. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$  414 FXUS63 KLSX 161950 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 250 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost is expected north of I-70 late tonight into early tomorrow morning. - Cooler temperatures are expected the next couple of days, followed by more seasonable temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Mesoanalysis shows that a sharp upper-level trough is over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The trough is a main driver for the widespread cloud cover currently over the region. There are embedded isolated showers within the cloud cover caused by weak low and mid-level lapse rates combined with weak warm air advection providing just enough lift to allow for sustainment of these isolated showers. The trough also brought the cold front through our region yesterday that introduced northwesterly flow resulting in much cooler temperatures compared to the last several days. This afternoon we are not expected to have temperatures above the mid 50s, which is 20-30 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. As this trough continues its trek to the east, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will move in covering the central CONUS. This evening, the approaching ridge will result in gradually lowering wind speeds and clearing skies from north to south. Radiative cooling will allow low temperatures overnight in northeast MO and west-central IL to drop into the mid-30s. With low wind, clear skies, and low temperatures there is high confidence for frost development, so the Front Advisory remains in effect for late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Southeastern MO and southwestern IL will not experience any frost due to remaining cloud cover and associated warmer temperatures as the clouds continue to scatter out to clear skies Saturday morning. Thanks to the approaching ridge, Saturday’s high temperatures are expected to rebound to around 60 degrees, which is still around 10 degrees below our seasonal normals. Cold and clear conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, creating another risk for frost development across the region, but there still remains uncertainty with the exact location of the surface high and subsequently surface winds. A Frost Advisory is currently not in effect for tomorrow night, but is not off the table if conditions allow. Sunday’s high temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer (in the mid-60s), as the ridge settles over the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There is a consensus among ensemble and deterministic guidance that once the ridge moves over the region tomorrow, that it will remain through the week. This leads to high confidence in a relatively uneventful week. The ridge will be bookended by troughing along the West and East Coasts causing weak low-level southwesterly flow during the week. As a result, there exists support for warm air advection, albeit subtly. This will result in a gradual warming of temperatures through the week. The first half of the week will see a return to near normal temperatures, but how much we warm by the end of the week remains uncertain. LREF guidance has Thursday’s high temperatures in the low to mid-70s, while the NBM has upper-70s to low-80s. The NBM is likely warmer due to it being composed of bias-corrected guidance that is warmer than non-bias guidance. This warm bias is likely a result of it currently being the cooling season combined with recent unseasonably warm events. Given this potential impact from the bias correction, the NBM is probably too warm and confidence is low in its temperatures towards the end of the week. Confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through the week due to the presence of weakflow aloft and lack of any notable disturbances in both deterministic and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low stratus associated with an upper-level trough is impacting the region creating MVFR ceilings. These MVFR ceilings are to the northwest of the St. Louis metro terminals, but are moving to the southeast and will impact the terminals this afternoon. There are some isolated showers that could impact the St. Louis metro terminals, but confidence is low that they will be directly impacted. As a result, VCSH was included to account for the possibility. Winds at all terminals are expected to remain gusty through the day. As high pressure moves into the region from the west overnight, winds will become calm and the ceilings will rise to VFR eventually giving way to clear skies. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019- 026-027-034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060- 095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Asel/BSH LONG TERM...Asel/BSH AVIATION...Asel/BSH