283 FXUS63 KJKL 161505 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1105 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will remain around the area through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 A cold front has entered western portions of the forecast area as of 11 AM EDT. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the boundary, with cooler air upstream. Wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range have been occurring along and just behind the front in portions of western and central KY and have opted to increase wind gusts for the remainder of the day based on these trends. Areas of showers and sprinkles were present mainly behind the boundary. Trends on wind gusts will continue to be monitored. Additional updates were made to temperatures and sky based on recent observation and satellite trends. UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a warm front now east of the state while a distinct and well defined cold front is approaching from the west. This has left mostly clear skies around eastern Kentucky as the showers have moved off to the east with the warm front. With plenty of ground moisture around, and patches of clearing in the skies, areas of fog have developed in the valleys this night and become locally dense. Currently, temperatures are quite mild and running in the low to mid 70s for much of the area with some mid to upper 60s noted in a few valley locations. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are rather moist and generally in the low to mid 60s. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first full-latitude trough of the season swinging out of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature steadily works into Kentucky today while starting to close off overhead later this evening and tonight. A core of energy accompanies the southern extent of the trough as it, and its sharp 5h height falls, move through by 06Z Saturday. Benign northwest flow then follows for the rest of the period. Given the very small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance into the NBM PoPs as the front moves through. With CAA for the bulk of the period did not see much of an opportunity to improve on the temps or dewpoints. Sensible weather will feature a very changeable day on account of the front moving through early in the day from northwest to southeast accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Even after the front passes and winds switch more northwesterly, a few showers will linger and only slowly clear out west to east. Temperatures peak early today before falling post-frontal leading to a chilly end of the afternoon and evening amid those lingering showers. There will be an upslope component to the post frontal showers that hold on into the night before finally clearing to the east early Saturday. With this new air mass, temperatures will be much cooler during the day, Saturday, despite plenty of returning sunshine. In fact, many places willsee temperatures 20 or so degrees colder Saturday afternoon compared to this afternoon. This, along with strong high pressure moving over the area will set the stage for a very chilly night with frost on tap and even some spots expected to hit freezing by dawn Sunday. A frost advisory will likely be needed. The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through tonight. Temperatures and dewpoints were left nearly unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 The extended portion of the forecast appears to be on track for the significant frost concerns both Saturday and Sunday nights on account of ridging aloft and strong sfc high pressure in place. This pattern will keep the weather rather quiet for the upcoming week with gradual moderation in temperatures each day following a chilly end to the weekend. The previous long term discussion follows: The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly with the cold front crossing the area during the daytime hours. Expect sustained winds near 15 kts and higher gusts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the afternoon as the front passes. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and poorer conditions along with the chance for -SHRA through evening. Low clouds and patchy fog lingers past midnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF AVIATION...GREIF  469 FXUS63 KIWX 161533 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1133 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning much cooler and windy for today with lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been hoisted as a result. - Chances for frost are best on Saturday night, however some frost cannot be ruled out tonight. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. Additionally, dry weather looks to persist through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A band of light rain showers across northwest Ohio will depart over the next few hours tied to low level fgen forcing with the sfc cold front that has tracked east of the area early this morning. In its wake, multiple bands of lake effect rain showers have developed north of the Toll Road as a cold air mass combined with lake temps running 2 to 4 deg C above normal have been favorable to realize lake induced instability. A strong upper level trough with slight positive tilt is oriented from the northern Great Lakes to the Central Plains and will shift across the region this afternoon allowing for secondary sfc trough passage. This will result in winds veering more northerly later this afternoon behind the trough with the focus for lake effect rain showers shifting into northwest Indiana with fetch more favored along the long axis of Lake Michigan. Wind gusts have been somewhat tempered behind the initial cold front but will likely become a bit more pronounced heading into late afternoon/early evening following this secondary trough passage and a brief period of steeper low level lapse rates with more depth. A modest surge of sfc pressure rises with this secondary trough passage may also help to augments sfc gusts in the 19-23Z time period across the north. Will continue with wind advisory for Berrien/LaPorte Counties, with the time period of 19Z-23Z still looking like the most optimal period to realize near advisory level northerly gusts downwind of Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a mid level trough digs across the Central US, an upper low gets shoved northeastward pushing a surface low into southeast Canada/Northeast US. At the same time, a 1040 mb surface high slides southeastward into the Central CONUS. The presence of this strong surface high often indicates the arrival of a cooler airmass and that is the case this time. Given our departure of above normal temperatures and the arrival of this cool airmass, we'll have some hazards to contend with today and this weekend. First, yesterday's cold front shifts eastward and the vigorous vort max associated with the mid level trough dives through Lk MI late this afternoon into this evening. Given the warm lake and the 850 mb temps dipping to around or below 0C, lake enhancement is expected to cause rain. A surface trough is expected to swing through the southeast area of Lk MI around 18z with ample low level moisture, low level wind convergence, and building lake enhanced instability. Given the movement of this trough and swiveling trajectories from northwest to north, the area with the best chance to see "higher" QPF is southern Berrien into LaPorte where 0.25 to 0.5" is forecast, tapering off the farther away from the lake you are. The heaviest of the rain appears to get into Berrien county midday (15 or 16z) and continues swiveling southward through the afternoon and into the evening. The other hazard is wind gusts, which look to get underway along lk MI- adjacent locations around 19 or 20z before pulling away around 3z. Given the surface trough, there could be some isentropic downglide enough to work an isolated 45 kt gust down to the surface. Otherwise, it appears that frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible during that time as low level lapse rates become conducive. The strongest of the gusts are adjacent to the lake, tapering off the farther away you get. This is why the wind advisory was hoisted for Lk MI- adjacent locales. The mention of the cold air also brings to mind the chance for frost. Especially with overnight lows dropping into the 30s from from tonight/Sat AM to Sunday night/Mon AM and potentially again Tue AM. The main issue with Friday night/Sat AM is the gradient which could keep winds strong enough to eliminate formation of frost. A lesser possibility is lake clouds hang on, but would probably lean towards subsidence on the eastern side of the lake clouds removing them. Clouds appear to already be dissipating on the NAM by around 6 to 9z for maybe all of our counties (lowest confidence on LaPorte to White county line). This would give areas along or about IN-15 north of US-24 on into MI the best chance to see frost tonight. Surface high pressure continues to poke into the area Saturday morning with the stronger gradient lurking to our north. So, cloud cover appears less of factor. It's often that as return flow begins to occur that we get our best frost chances as winds slacken, but the boundary layer is able to get back to what it was the previous night or potentially colder. So, Saturday night has the best chance for frost. There is also the possibility of a freeze primarily along and south of US-24 Sun AM with a couple hours of temps right around there then. Surface high pressure then becomes stagnant across the eastern CONUS as blocking builds across the Atlantic. The NAO/AO both drop negative during this time. The upper jet also retreats back up into Canada. A slow moving trough moves into the western CONUS, but takes its time arriving into the area potentially continuing to provide dry weather into next weekend. Temperatures trend warmer with highs returning to the 70s during the next work week and lows warming slowly through the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Post-frontal cold advection will keep mainly MVFR cigs and gusty west-northwest winds going today. A digging upper level trough and associated secondary low level trough sink south through the area this afternoon bringing increasing chances for showers and vis restrictions, particularly at KSBN where there will be lake enhancement. This transitions to pure lake effect this evening at KSBN with additional shower chances and high MVFR cigs. Winds remain gusty and veer more northerly otherwise later this afternoon and evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Steinwedel  858 FXUS64 KHUN 161545 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front will track southeastward across the TN Valley today, bringing a low chance of rain to the region (that will continue through early Saturday morning). - Northerly winds of 10-15 MPH (with gusts up to 20-30 MPH) will occur this afternoon and again on Saturday. - Patchy frost may occur early Sunday morning in a few wind- sheltered locations across southern TN and northeast AL. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Over the course of the near term period, a strong mid-level high (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will retreat eastward as an amplifying northern stream shortwave trough digs from the Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Appalachians. In response to this, a deepening area of low pressure at the surface will advance east-northeastward across southern QC/northern New England and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence by the end of the period. A cold front extending southwestward from the low will make steady southeastward progression across the local forecast area today, and after entering northwest AL ~14Z should exit our southeastern counties by ~22Z. In spite of limited instability (with ensemble MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg), sufficient boundary layer moisture should exist in the vicinity of the frontal confluence axis for the development of a thin line of low-topped convective showers as the front progresses across the region. As mid-level WSW flow increases to 70-80 knots and synoptic scale ascent strengthens this afternoon and evening downstream from the approaching 500-mb wave, one or more bands of light stratiform rain may also evolve within the postfrontal airmass, and we have made a minor increase in POPs region-wide within the 21-3Z timeframe to account for this scenario. In the wake of the cold front, surface winds will veer sharply to NNW and strengthen, with sustained speeds of 10-15 MPH and gusts up to 20-25 MPH (perhaps 25-30 MPH in a few locations) anticipated. This will quickly begin to advect a cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and modified North Pacific air into the region, with daily max temperatures dependent of timing of frontal passage (and related CAA/increase in cloud cover). Although lingering light rain this evening (in the eastern portion of the CWFA) will likely end by 3Z, favorably oriented low-level streamlines may continue to generate a few oragraphically-induced showers across the northeastern half of the region through sunrise tomorrow. Due to the combination of widespread stratus clouds and a moderate NNW wind, overnight lows will generally be in the m-u 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An amplifying northern stream shortwave trough (positioned to the immediate northeast of the local forecast area at the beginning of the period) is predicted to evolve into a weak low that will drift southeastward to the NC Coast by Sunday night as it becomes detached from the polar westerlies. As a low-amplitude mid-level ridge builds northeastward into the region (in the wake of this feature), strong NNW flow aloft will weaken considerably from Saturday night-Sunday night, and due to the dry nature of the airmass and absence of atmospheric lift, we expect dry conditions to prevail (in the wake of any lingering wrap-around showers early Saturday morning). In the low-levels, a surface high will migrate northeastward from the southern High Plains into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday (and into the northern Mid-Atlantic States Saturday night). This configuration will result in NNE winds (of similar magnitude to today) on Saturday, with flow diminishing and veering to ENE Saturday night. Regardless of sunny skies, afternoon highs tomorrow will range from the m-u 50s in elevated terrain to the l-m 60s in the valley. This will be followed by optimal conditions for radiational cooling on Saturday night, with lows in the u30s-l40s (away from large water sources). If winds become calm (which is unlikely based on the anticipated pressure gradient), forecast soundings suggest that dewpoint depressions will be sufficiently narrow to support the development of patchy frost in a few wind-sheltered locations across southern TN/northeast AL (where temps may fall into the mid 30s). As the surface high shifts further northeastward into the northwestern Atlantic on Sunday/Sunday night, a lingering surface ridge axis will maintain a light easterly-calm wind across the region. Afternoon temperatures will rise a few degrees into the m-u 60s, with overnight lows Monday morning once again in the m30s-l40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front will bring cloud cover and strong, gusty NW winds in its wake today from late this morning through this afternoon and evening, During this timeframe, gusty northwest to north winds will develop ahead of the front between 15 to 25 MPH. Have also added LLWS during the day to account for stout southwesterlies just above the surface. In addition, low stratus will develop late in the period, with MVFR conditions developing after 00z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...AMP  248 FXUS62 KTAE 161555 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 30-40kts for Saturday. A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 continue today, then turning sharply cooler this weekend following Friday's cold front resulting in highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows in the 50s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The main change to today's forecast was to increase rain chances slightly across the western portions of the FL Panhandle to account for an offshore band of convection moving NE near Mobile Bay. Some of this activity looks to encroach into the aforementioned location by this afternoon as from much-anticipated cold front continues its eastward track across the MS Valley. Added a slight chance of thunder as well given the lightning seen on GLM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today will start out similarly to yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours through daybreak can be expected. Fog may be dense at times, which could result in a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. Light westerly winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Later tonight, a strong cold front will approach the region. Winds will quickly shift from the northwest to northerly and increase to 20-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Florida Panhandle through the day Saturday. Due to the ongoing clean-up efforts following Hurricane Isaias, the Wind Advisory also extends inland for our Central Time Zone counties into SE Alabama for precautionary reasons to emphasize the elevated wind threat that may impact weakened structures and trees. Temperatures will noticeably change with Saturday's highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation is not expected with the cold front; however there is a slight chance for showers in the extreme southeast Big Bend Friday night into Saturday, prior to the front's arrival. The next system that we will need to monitor during the short term is the potential for a coastal low developing off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid- Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The overall upper level trough associated with Friday's cold front will remain over the region through the weekend. This will keep the cool temperatures and dry air for the next few days. Highs will slowly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the period, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This TAF cycle focuses on winds before and after cold frontal passage. For the rest of this aftn into the evening, winds generally less than 10 kts are fcst. By tonight, a strong cold front plows thru the region and ushers in quick northwesterly wind shift, ramping up to about 15 kts sustained with frequent gusts of 25-30 kts. Timed the onset at each terminal based on the latest trends with ECP/DHN experiencing post-frontal gustinessfirst (~3Z) and VLD last (~9Z). Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue for today through this afternoon. Tonight, a strong cold front will push through the waters, sharply turning our winds northerly and increasing to Gales. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with gusty winds up to 40 kts and seas will sharply rise to 5-8 feet, and up to 10 feet in our offshore waters by Saturday. The winds and seas will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High dispersions for districts north of I-10 this afternoon with transport winds around 10-15 mph out of the west. Later tonight, a strong cold front will rush in. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly, and increasing to around 20-25 mph overnight through the day Saturday with gusts approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Saturday morning in our Central Time Zone districts through the early evening hours. There is a slight chance for light showers ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Healthy/moderate dispersions are forecast for Saturday afternoon with a few pockets in the Big Bend region of high dispersions. MinRH values following the frontal passage will fall into the mid to upper 30%s for the afternoon hours, yet remain above critical. Recent soil moisture contents should keep the region out of critical fire weather concerns; however we will be monitoring the wind and gusts as fuels could start drying out through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Our rivers that are in Action stage are continuing on a downward trend. Little to no rain expected for the next several days. No further flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 62 72 53 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 86 59 72 55 / 10 20 0 0 Dothan 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 Albany 88 56 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 88 61 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 89 66 75 55 / 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 84 64 72 57 / 0 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  276 FXUS64 KOHX 161556 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1056 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front is pushing through the area, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only low, light rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front is marching through the area this morning bringing overcast skies, gusty northwest winds, and dropping temperatures. It is quite the change from the record-breaking heat we saw Monday through Thursday. Radar shows some light returns west of I-65, so some sprinkles and light showers will be possible this afternoon and evening. Any rain amounts will be a trace to a couple hundredths. Breezy northwest winds will continue overnight with cloud cover lingering. With the cold air advection, temperatures will be able to fall to the lower to mid 40s. Saturday will be the coolest day of the season so far with temperatures only making it to the mid 50s to lower 60s! Breezy northerly winds will continue and RH values over the western half of the CWA will drop to around 30%. I would advise to not burn anything given the ongoing drought conditions. Saturday night will see winds decrease and temperatures drop into the 30s. Light frost is likely in the low- lying areas along the plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The story of the extended period will be the continuing dry conditions. High pressure will be established on Sunday with influences continuing through the work week. The upper low over the Carolina coast may retrograde west onshore mid to late week but those influences will stay east of our area. Locally, we'll see high temperatures slowly climb through the 70s through the week with plenty of sunshine. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is moving through Middle Tennessee this morning. This will bring a distinct NW wind shift with gusts 20-25 kts as well as MVFR cigs. FROPA is currently occuring at CKV. BNA and MQY timing is 1230-1300z. MVFR cigs are forecast to stick around through the early to mid afternoon with skies scattering out to VFR for the late afternoon and evening. Additional MVFR cigs are possible overnight as more wrap-around clouds moves into the area. Winds will become N tomorrow morning with gusts 15-20 kts && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 46 61 40 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 66 44 61 36 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 73 41 54 33 / 20 40 0 0 Columbia 72 45 63 38 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 70 43 56 36 / 30 30 0 0 Jamestown 71 42 54 34 / 40 50 0 0 Lawrenceburg 73 44 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 72 45 62 38 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 64 45 60 39 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Sizemore  355 FXUS61 KOKX 161506 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1106 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds during Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon. The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3 hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather, with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear environment. CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for far eastern sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day. Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night. Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front moves through late day into early evening. IFR improving to MVFR this afternoon, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt. Winds up to this point mainly SSW with gusts around 20kt developing in the afternoon. VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly 20-25kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of flight category changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday. Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...JC/DR MARINE...JE