295 FXUS65 KTFX 161103 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 503 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will warm up to well-above seasonal averages today and Saturday. - It will be windy across the Rocky Mountain Front today and across North-central Montana on Saturday. - It will be mostly dry through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1218 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This brings warm temperatures and dry weather to the area today. Today temperatures will be well above seasonal averages. Today the pressure gradient increases which will bring windy conditons primarily just to the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and dry temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Saturday the low-level and mid-level winds increase combined with the upper-level ridge flattening. This will bring windy conditions to North-central Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I- 15. On Sunday there will be zonal flow (west-east) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures with mostly dry weather. On Monday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up slightly with mostly dry weather. On Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over Montana this will keep warm and dry weather for North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday there will be a series of weak troughs that pass through Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather for North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday and Thursday. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Saturday there is a 40 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 50 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 70 mph or greater. Along the higher peaks of the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 70% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater. Additionally the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) has a standardized anomaly greater than 3 for 700 mb winds Saturday afternoon across the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15. Models continue to show in excess of 60 to 70 kt 700 mb winds over the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 Saturday afternoon and evening. As a result a High Wind Watch remains in effect for the plains west of I-15 and the Rocky Mountain Front from 9AM Saturday through 12AM Sunday. On Saturday across the rest of North-central Montana there is a 30 - 60% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater. For winds across the Hi-Line east of I-15 there is currently a low chance to reach and/or exceed high wind criteria but if the strong 700 mb winds move east faster than models are currently depicting a High Wind Watch could be needed for the Hi- Line east of I-15. -IG && .AVIATION... 16/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 1612/1712 TAF period; however, temporary patchy fog is possible near the KBZN terminal through 15z this morning. Otherwise the only other impact to terminals across Southwest through North Central Montana will be breezy afternoon winds, most notably over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 69 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 63 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 61 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 57 20 58 21 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 61 30 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 68 41 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 69 44 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  714 FXUS64 KBRO 161110 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, and markedly cooler changes along with multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) Friday into the weekend. - Northerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph Friday into Saturday. - Medium (30-50%) rain shower chances on Friday along the cold front. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Major changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place in the next 12-24 hours across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Multiple weather hazards including a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory are in effect ahead of a strong cold front, which is now pushing through central Texas, that will sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The cold front will arrive over the Rio Grande Valley sometime during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will have enough time to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the valley before the cold front pushes through. Immediately behind the cold front is a strong, sprawling 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system. The combination of the cold front and Canadian High will result in tight isobars or an enhanced pressure gradient over the region. Ultimately, this will result in strong, stiff north winds developing Friday afternoon. Many computer models continue to show north winds 15-30 mph with peak gusts as high as 45-55+ mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday and Saturday for much of Deep South Texas to take into account the strong winds. These strong wind will result in multiple coastal and marine hazards Friday through Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). Drier air will build into the region behind the fropa on Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop through the day on Friday/Friday night with little to no recovery. Due to the combination of lower relative humidity values and strong winds, we've decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Friday/Friday night. Another Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday. Any rain showers are expected to be light to moderate. Much cooler temperatures will develop Friday night through Saturday night with lows in the 50s most places. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rebound back to warmer than normal levels (high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s) Tuesday through Friday of next week as a 591 hpa heat dome builds over the region. There is a chance for additional showers Monday night into Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The passage of a cold front today will bring breezy to windy generally northerly winds at that time. A TEMPO remains for the possibility of showers and is based on the HRRR model. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds to the region Friday into Saturday. These winds will result in multiple coastal/marine hazards Friday into Sunday (at least). A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 10AM Friday to 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory are in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from 1PM Friday to 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Friday morning to Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 61 73 61 / 40 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 58 75 57 / 30 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 60 76 59 / 40 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 58 75 56 / 50 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 67 73 68 / 50 20 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 62 73 61 / 40 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$  326 FXUS63 KPAH 161117 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dramatically cooler today as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs are forecast 27 to 32 degrees colder than yesterday. - Saturday night still looks to have a high potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week amid dry and settled weather with warm days and cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong cold front is moving int the northwestern part of the CWA this morning. Along the front a few showers will remain possible through early morning but the main impact will be starkly lower temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts 30-35 mph are occurring immediately behind the front before tapering back to 20 to 25 mph. Today will feel much different from yesterday with highs likely struggling to break 60 during the day underneath fairly persistent low clouds. Behind the large shortwave trough pushing this front strong upper ridging builds in. Fairly breezy northwest winds are expected to persist through much of the day Saturday before the surface reflection of the upper ridge axis passes overhead Saturday night. At that point strong radiational cooling conditions set up with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Frost looks likely for a sizable chunk of the CWA, with a freeze very much possible in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. For messaging clarity will not issue a Frost Advisory with this shift but one will likely be required for at least part, if not all, of the CWA by Saturday night. Deep layer ridging looks to control the pattern for the remainder of the forecast period. With dry, and settled conditions with low humidity and large diurnal temperature swings, highs in the mid 70s lows in the mid 40s which is close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR conditions are anticipated most of the morning. Gusty northwest winds behind a strong cold front will continue much of the day with gusts 20 to 25 kts commonplace. Light rain/drizzle is expanding behind the front and will likely persist for several hours. There appears to be a pocket for VFR (still around 3500 ft) this afternoon, but ceilings will likely fall back below 3000 ft after sunset for a few hours. Late tonight drier air starts to move in, winds ease a bit and VFR conditions start to appear more likely. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG  379 FXUS61 KOKX 161140 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 740 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds during Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon. The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3 hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather, with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear environment. CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for far eastern sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day. Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night. Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s withmuch lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front lifts through this morning, followed by a cold frontal passage into early evening. MVFR cigs this morning, possibly IFR at times. Scattered showers are also moving through, and may restrict vsbys at times. The showers taper by late morning, but conditions likely remain MVFR into the afternoon, before possibly improving to VFR for NYC and LoHud Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, but it also remains possible they remain MVFR through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. SSE flow around 10 kt this morning veers S then SW into late morning, with gusts toward 20 kt developing. Gusts then continue through the remainder of the TAF, though may be more occasional at times. After the cold frontal passage, winds quickly shift W then NW this evening and into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely this morning with changing flight categories. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday. Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DR MARINE...JE  240 FXUS61 KPBZ 161136 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 736 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk for severe storms today includes most of western PA and northern WV. Probabilities for advisory level wind gusts (outside of convection) have also decreased. No other significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and isolated thunderstorms in warm advection will continue to cross the area this morning. Elevated instability and a low level jet should also enhance some of this activity until just before sunrise. A digging upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest today, as a deepening surface low tracks across Southern Ontario to New England. The low will pull a strong cold front across the area from mid morning into the afternoon. Increasing flow with a jet aloft will result in increasing shear, with building instability east of the front. Enough heating/instability for strong storms appear unlikely for much of Ohio, with an earlier FROPA. Further to the east, building instability and the shear should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. Winds at 10kft are progged to be around 60kt at the time of FROPA across wrn PA, with around 50 kt further to the south. There is a potential for damaging winds as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms develops along the front later this morning into the afternoon. There is some veering in the lower levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from damaging wind gusts. Gusty winds are also expected outside of any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Probabilities of advisory level gusts have decreases according to the latest model data and BUFKIT momentum transfer procedures. Still, gusts from 30 to 35 mph will be likely thorough tonight, with gusts around 40 mph across the higher terrain. The highest elevations of eastern Tucker county could see gusts around 45 mph, but held off on a wind advisory at this time with the recent downward trend in expected wind gusts. The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe storm potential. The deepening upper trough is then progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region later today into tonight, with some lake enhancement also possible as cold advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning, so other than a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges, no snow is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday/Saturday night, as a low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling, with a frost/freeze potential across the area. Frost advisories/freeze warnings may be needed. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the closed low/trough should persist off of the SE Coast, with another trough over the Western CONUS. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deepening low pressure systemand its surface cold front will cross the region today and procure two main rounds of rain. The first round is during the morning to early afternoon period along/ahead of the advancing surface cold front; expect falling cigs toward MVFR prior to and at onset of precipitation, shift from SW to W/WNW winds plus low probability for brief gusts meeting/exceeding 40kts, potential for heavier rain causing visibility restrictions, and limited lightning chance favoring locations near/SE of KPIT. The second round arrives roughly between 00z-08z tonight as the trough sags south and flow becomes more northerly, which better taps warm lake waters to enhance showers along a secondary front/wind shift. Lower in probability, this southward moving wave could create a brief period of light rain/drizzle with IFR cigs/vis. After the first round, the predominate weather is on and off light rain showers with gusty afternoon winds between 20-30kts that wane a bit at night with clouds that could bounce between low VFR to low MVFR levels. Precipitation chances fully end around 12z Saturday as subsidence/high pressure build from the rest. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...Frazier  196 FXUS63 KDLH 161135 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain moves out of the area through this morning, with strong north winds gusting 25-40mph peaking by midday, then diminishing into the evening. - Dry conditions expected this weekend, with possible near-critical fire weather concerns Saturday. - A very chilly night and widespread freeze into Saturday morning, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Additional rain showers continue to make their way across the region this morning. The main synoptic system is pushing off to the east across the Great Lakes, with some lingering wrap around precipitation being the main driver for the rain we are still seeing. These showers should steadily move east and diminish through this morning, with a little lingering lake enhanced rain possible into the early afternoon along the South Shore. Closely following the surface low moving east is a notable surface high pressure building over the Dakotas, making for a prominent pressure gradient between the two. This is leading to wind gusts of 20-40mph over western to central MN, which will push across the rest of the Northland through this morning. The zenith for peak gusts should be observed between now and noon, with weakening gusts through the afternoon and evening. Saturday, that high pressure should bring in dry air, along with some gusty southwest winds. First, low dewpoints and clearing skis should allow temperatures to plummet overnight, leading to morning low temperatures in the 20s Saturday. Then, a combination of afternoon relative humidity dropping to near 30% and southwest wind gusts of 20-30mph could lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions. Recent model guidance has trended slightly more moist with relative humidity due to cooler afternoon high temperatures, but there is still a wide spread in that variable which could affect final RH values. With a sunny day expected that should increase mixing, we're still keeping an eye on Saturday for fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fireweather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings continue early this morning at all terminals. Those low ceilings should slowly make their way out of the area through mid morning, with conditions returning to VFR for all terminals by midday. Gusty north winds continue, with gusts of 25-30 knots possible, peaking between 12-18Z this morning, and then steadily diminishing through the afternoon and evening. Expect fairly calm conditions and clear skies overnight into Saturday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong period of north winds will affect Western Lake Superior this morning, with gales expected through midday. Winds should diminish through the afternoon, but a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed until early this evening. Winds turn to become southwesterly through the weekend, with some strong gusts possible, especially in the afternoon and along the South Shore. Max gusts could approach gale-force Saturday afternoon and evening, but its still a little uncertain at this time. Wind gusts over 30knots are likely (70% chance), but getting all the way to 34knots is less certain, especially for the North Shore and into the open waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and a Gale Warning is possible. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Very strong northwest winds are expected this morning, peaking in the late morning to around noon, and then slowly weakening through the afternoon and evening. This will accompany diminishing rain showers, which should be largely out of the region by mid morning. As drier air moves in behind these showers, afternoon relative humidity should drop to around 40-50%. Saturday will be a day to watch for fire weather concerns, though recent model guidance has backed off on the very dry air we were expecting. Minimum afternoon relative humidity could still drop to 30-40% along with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. Gusty southwest winds continue into Sunday, with afternoon minimum relative humidity recovering slightly, expected to be in the 35-45% range. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Levens DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  781 FXUS63 KGRB 161149 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 649 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .UPDATE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Per coordination with surrounding offices, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for portions of central, east-central and portions of northeast WI. Winds are expected to drop off late tonight across the Door peninsula, thus have added a Frost Advisory where areas of frost will be possible over interior and southern sections of the county. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain continues tonight, becoming scattered into Friday morning. Most locations should see an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Warning is in effect late tonight into early Saturday morning for much of central, east-central and portions of northeast Wisconsin. - A Frost Advisory has been posted for late tonight into early Saturday morning for Door County. Areas of frost are anticipated over interior and southern sections of the county. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain chances through Friday... Radar and surface obs show widespread stratiform rain ongoing late this evening as cold front infringes on northwest Wisconsin and phased upper trough approaches the Great Lakes. Expect rain to become more scattered in coverage overnight into Friday morning with the loss of moisture advection and upper jet support, though most locations should still pick up an addition 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. Probabilities for receiving 0.5" of rain through tonight sit at around 30 to 60%, highest over far northeast Wisconsin where modest mid-level FGEN resides in proximity to the surface low. Rain then tapers off from west to east late Friday morning, though wrap around moisture may keep showers or drizzle around over east-central Wisconsin through the afternoon. Winds... Gradient winds ramp up Friday morning as a surge of CAA accompanies northwesterly wind shift and building high pressure over the Plains. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 40 to 45 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, resulting in a high confidence (60 to 90%) setup for widespread surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Only caveat will be Door County, where locally higher gusts will be bumping up against advisory criteria. HREF currently shows a 20 to 40% chance for gusts exceeding 44 mph over northern Door, with sustained winds also coming within a mph or two of criteria. Current thinking would be to hold off on an advisory for the time being due to low confidence, though CAM trends will have to be monitored on subsequent shifts. Temperatures... Intrusion of arctic high paired with stout northwesterly flow will result in a brief spell of well below normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. Highs will struggle to meet 50 degrees for many locations, with lows then plummeting into the mid 20s to low 30s. Setup still looking favorable (50 to 70%) for a hard freeze Friday night, so have retained the Freeze Watch. A rapid pattern shift to more seasonable temperatures then occurs over the weekend as return flow sets up and upper flow de- amplifies. As such, highs are progged to read mainly in the mid to upper 60s through at least mid-week, with several shots at seeing 70 degrees. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern then looks to set up toward the end of next week as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 20 Light rain will come to an end later this morning or early this afternoon. IFR/MVFR CIGS will improve into the VFR category. The big story today will be the strong north/northwest winds of 15-30 knots with gusts of 30-40 knots possible. Winds will quickly subside around and after sunset this evening. Gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots return on Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds ramp up following cold FROPA later this evening. HREF probabilistic guidance is currently showing a 65 to 95% signal for 10-meter wind gusts exceeding 39 mph, which should translate pretty well to gale force gusts over our marine zones. Waves will build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake during this time. Have opted to throw out a wind down Small Craft Advisory along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters on this shift, as waves remain elevated through around 08Z Saturday as winds shift to more westerly. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022. && $$ UPDATE.........Eckberg DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin  120 FXUS63 KABR 161112 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 612 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will continue into the early morning over northeastern SD and west central MN before decreasing by mid morning. -The winds will pick up again tonight into Saturday, with a 30-50% chance for gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the Sisseton Hills. -Low temperatures tonight into Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s. These temperatures could cause frost to form overnight before the winds pick up. && .UPDATE... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong northerly winds have been gusting up around 45-55 mph overnight as a stronger winds aloft are pushed to the surface by cold air advecting into central and northeastern SD. These winds will slowly be decreasing from west to east through the early morning, with wind gusts over northeastern SD decreasing below 30 mph by mid morning. The stronger winds aloft have also been able to interact with some moisture aloft and cause some scattered showers to develop overnight and move through the area. As the winds die back early this morning, so does the ability for these showers to develop. Through the day, drier air aloft will be moving in as high surface pressure shifts over SD. Both the drier air and high pressure will help to finally erode the clouds that have been stuck over central and northeastern SD and west central MN, and we will have some clear skies by the afternoon. Those clear skies will help to cool temperatures tonight into Saturday morning into the mid to low 30s. These cold temperatures could help frost to form over northeastern SD and west central MN tonight. This frost will have to form during the early overnight hours, because as the high pressure moves out this evening, strong southerly winds will move in over the area. These stronger winds will disrupt the frost formation, and can keep the frost from forming into early Saturday morning. These winds will be gusting up around 25-30mph across central and northeastern SD overnight. Additionally, as these winds reach the Prairie Coteau, they could become stronger due to downsloping winds. There is a 30-50% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph along the eastern edge of the coteau Saturday morning. A wind advisory might be needed for these areas into early Saturday afternoon because of this. Warmer temperatures will be moving in Saturday from the southerly winds, which will help to warm temperatures about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year Saturday and Sunday. The downsloping winds from the southwesterly direction will continue into Saturday night. Then, a surface trough will then be moving through SD Sunday, shifting the winds to be coming from the north and decreasing the downsloping effects along the coteau. The drier air that moves in today will stick around through the beginning of the week and will help to keep precipitation from developing as the surface trough move through on Sunday, as well as into the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Continuing to see stratus cigs breaking up across the region, and rising from MVFR to VFR. By 18Z, all four terminals should be in VFR conditions, which are forecast to persist through the end of the TAF valid period. North-northwest winds 10 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will continue to diminish today, before switching around to south-southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots with some higher gusts by the end of the TAF valid period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...10  902 FXUS63 KILX 161110 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely this afternoon, with the strongest winds being west of I-57. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region through the weekend, resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River tonight/Saturday morning and a 30-50% chance east of I-55 Saturday night/Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has moved through the area but the 500mb trough will rotate through the area today, bringing instability showers to the entire area this afternoon. The bulk of the showers will diminish after sunset but some could linger in far eastern parts of the CWA as the flow becomes more northerly and scattered showers are expected to drop south of Lake Michigan to along the IL/IN border during the evening. Cold air advection is occurring behind the front, tightening the pressure gradient. This is bringing gusty winds to the area early this morning. Wind gusts over 30 mph have already occurred in some spots and gusts shows 80-90% chance that gusts over 30 will continue through the day. In fact, the HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts over 35 mph east of I-55 during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will then decrease in the west during the evening but not taper off in the east until around midnight. Cooler, fall like temperatures will advect into the area behind the departing cold front this weekend. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s both Sat and Sun morning. With skies becoming clear tonight and winds becoming much lighter overnight, frost is expected to develop across west central and parts of central Illinois late tonight. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees northwest of the IL River late tonight/Sat morning, so some low spots could see a light freeze. Frost is possible again Sunday morning, mainly in areas east of I-55 where the HREF is showing a 30-50% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees. Because of the frost potential tonight, a frost advisory has been issued for areas west of a Bloomington to Decatur to Shelbyville line. Another frost advisory will likely be needed east of I-55 Saturday night. Temperatures will begin to warm starting Sunday, reaching into the 60s. The rest of the extended forecast, Monday through Friday, looks to be above normal with highs in the 70s to around 80, especially Thursday and Friday. Dry weather is also expected through the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will start all sites, but MVFR clouds around 2.5kft will advect back into the area from the northwest this morning, as the 500mb trough rotates into the area. This trough will bring gusty northwest winds, scattered showers and lower cigs. So, will have cigs at all sites below 2kft and vcsh. Will also have a PROB30 for showers possibly hitting sites with 5sm and cigs below 1kft. This will last into the afternoon but end at or prior to 00z. During evening cigs will improve to VFR at all sites and VCSH will end. Late tonight clouds will dissipate and skies should become clear or mostly clear. Winds will be northwest through most of the period, but become more northerly during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will be sustained at 15-18kts with gusts of 30kts possible. Speeds will diminish in the evening, but remain breezy, around 15-20kts, but then get lighter more late tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031- 036-037-040>042-047>052. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Auten DISCUSSION...Auten AVIATION...Auten  587 FXUS62 KCHS 161122 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 722 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another day of above normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected today. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Another day of above normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected today. Aloft, the day will begin with the forecast area situated between a ridge centered over the southwest Atlantic and a sharp trough stretching from the western Great Lakes into the Central Plains. The trough will make steady progress today and tonight, and should be situated near the spine of the Appalachians by sunrise Saturday. The trough aloft will push a strong cold front to the east-southeast today, with the front likely entering the interior of the forecast area by the early morning hours on Saturday. So for today, the forecast area will sit solidly within the warm sector ahead of the front. The result will be one more day with well above normal temperatures. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s everywhere yet again which is on the order of 7-9 degrees above normal. Daily record highs are at or above 90 at both CHS and SAV (see Climate section), so it is unlikely we will set any records. But regardless, quite warm for mid October. Today will also bring breezier conditions than the last several days. The combination of gradually increasing wind fields aloft ahead of the front, as well as deep diurnal mixing associated with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will yield frequent gusts into the 15-20 mph range this afternoon and into the early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Saturday: A strong cold front will be located off our coast in the morning, and quickly shifting away. Meanwhile, strong High pressure across the Central U.S. will be building towards the east. Models hint at perhaps isolated to maybe scattered light showers across our area in the morning and early afternoon. Though, QPF will be minimal. Drier conditions build in by late afternoon. But the big change will be the temperatures. Cold air advection behind the front will only allow highs to reach into the mid to upper 60s across most of our area, and perhaps the lower 70s along our GA coast. Lows will generally be in the 40s. It'll also be very breezy, especially closer to the coast. Sunday: Temperatures will be even colder despite abundant sunshine. Highs should only top out in the lower to middle 60s across most of our area, and maybe the upper 60s along/near our GA coast. The breezy winds will continues, especially closer to the coast. Lake Wind: A Lake Wind Advisory will probably be needed for Moultrie Saturday into Sunday. Monday through Midweek: High pressure should persist across the region, but start to show signs of weakening across the Southeast heading into the middle of next week. Temperatures should gradually warm by the middle of next week, but could remain a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The 12z TAF period begins with some shallow ground fog but overall VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. VFR will prevail through the period. Southwest winds could produce a few modest gusts into the 15-18 knot range this afternoon. The main change will come very late in the TAF period when a strong cold front moves through. Winds will turn out of the northwest and begin to strengthen the last few hours. There will also likely be a few showers associated with the front, but that activity will mostly be after 12z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Breezy winds are expected through Monday. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: A cold front will approach from the northwest today and will be in the process of crossing the local waters late tonight up to sunrise Saturday. For today, southwest flow will increase into the 10-15 knot range this afternoon with a few gusts up to around 20 knots primarily in the SC waters. Overnight, the southwest flow will gradually increase into the early morning hours. The front will move through late, turning winds to northwesterly and bringing the beginning of a significant surge of flow. By sunrise Saturday, sustained winds of 20 knots are expected with frequent gusts into the 25+ knot range. Seas will gradually increase today and into the early morning hours, with the greatest increase beginning with the passage of the front close to sunrise Saturday. By that time, seas are expected to be 2-4 feet and increasing. Extended Marine: Gale to Strong Gale conditions are expected this weekend through Monday. A strong cold front will be located off our coast Saturday morning, and quickly shifting away. Meanwhile, strong High pressure across the Central U.S. will be building towards the east. The interaction between these two synoptic features will lead to strong cold air advection and pressure differences across our coastal waters, leading to rapidly deteriorating marine conditions on Saturday. We'll start off with a few hours of Small Craft Advisories Saturday morning, followed by Gale conditions in our Atlantic zones by the afternoon. We now have Gale Watches up for our Atlantic zones, but it's safe to say they'll be upgraded to warnings. The synoptic pattern should support gale to strong gale conditions through Monday, with the highest winds and steepest/largest seas further offshore. Winds should ease Monday night into Tuesday. However, seas may remain elevated through the middle of next week. High Surf: Elevated seas and strong/persistent north-northeast winds will support breakers in excess of 5 ft along our beaches, with the largest waves across our GA beaches. High Surf Advisories are likely for our entire coast Sunday into Monday, and possibly along our GA coast into Tuesday. Rip Currents: The combination of strong/persistent gales and elevated seas will generate a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all of our beaches on Saturday, followed by an elevated risk continuing well into next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KCHS: 90/2018 KCXM: 88/2018 KSAV: 91/2018 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ360- 362-364. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for AMZ360-362-364. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning for AMZ380-382-384. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ384. && $$  605 FXUS65 KPSR 161122 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 422 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories in effect today through Saturday morning across southern Arizona and southeast California, with breezy to windy conditions expected as forecast peak wind gusts reach up to 40-55 mph. - Strong winds on today will likely lead to widespread lofted dust, leading to hazy conditions, and localized dust channels occasionally reducing visibility below one mile. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures the next couple days, then slightly cooler with a slight chances for rain showers this weekend. - A Pacific low pressure system moving down the coast early next week is currently forecast to bring regional rain chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures by the middle to latter portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level WV imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis show the cut off low now developed over southern California and northern Baja, while high pressure continues to strengthen over NW CONUS. The high pressure will be be the driving force for temperatures remaining near normal today. Though the core of the ridge is to the north of the state, H5 heights will still reach between 585-588 dam over the desert SW. As mentioned, near normal afternoon highs can be expected today with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s in the western lower deserts and along the Colorado River Valley, while south-central AZ will maintain highs in the mid to upper 80s. The upper level ridge will quickly pass and move into the Plains by Saturday, allowing heights aloft to dampen and be influenced by the lingering cut off low. This will result in Saturday cooling into the upper 70s to low 80s. This will also be in conjunction with increasing cloud coverage and about a 10-20% chances of light showers/virga across south- central AZ and the eastern high terrain as early as Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, the main weather concern will be winds due to a strong pressure gradient. This may be one of the the strongest easterly gradient wind events of the last decade. With strong winds lofted and blowing dust also poses a threat, especially across dust prone areas. Northerly winds gusts have already developed in the SE CA and along the Colorado River Valley and are under a Wind Advisory through Friday afternoon, where peak gusts between 40-45 mph can be expected. Over the next several hours this morning the surface high will migrate from southern Montana into the southern Plains/southern Rockies region and the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen and shifting the winds from the north to out of the east. Near sunrise this morning the Wind Advisory will expand eastwards into SW and SC Arizona, where gusts between 45-50 mph will be possible, while the Phoenix Metro will be slightly lower with gusts between 35- 45 mph. Winds this strong are likely to pick up a good amount of dust, creating hazy conditions, and will likely lead to some dust channels developing, with reduction in visibilities to under 1 mile at times, depending on land use. Most of the region will be under advisory level by mid afternoon today, while Pinal County and southern Gila County will continue with strong gusts through the overnight periods into late Saturday morning, with locally up to 55 mph over mountain peaks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The strong pressure gradient and resultant strong easterly winds across southern AZ will weaken heading into Sunday as the strong surface high in the Plains weakens and shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. Winds early Sunday morning will remain elevated over south- central Arizona and the higher terrain with gusts between 20-25 in SC AZ, and 30-35 mph in the higher terrain. Past sunrise these winds will quickly weaken as the upper level pattern continues to quickly shift. The ridge will continue to push eastwards, and the cutoff low will begin to weaken and become an open wave, lifting through the region Sunday- Monday. As the open wave moves drifts through, lingering light showers/virga remain in the forecast, 20-35% Sunday, then 10-20% Monday. This will be confined to the higher terrain areas, where with enough extra lift may be possible for showers to develop. However, if any activity does develop total accumulations are expected to be only a few hundredths, or near zero. For the lower deserts temperatures are expected to rebound back into the mid to upper 80s Sunday and into early next week. By late Monday into Tuesday a troughing feature will begin to dive down the western coastline, however confidence is low in the timing and strength of the feature. This has resulted in a decent amount of spread in for temperatures by mid next week. As it stands now temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal Monday-Tuesday then start to fall 6-9 degrees below normal for the later half of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation weather concerns during the upcoming TAF period will be gusty to at times strong easterly winds and areas of lofted dust causing slantwise visibility issues. Winds currently are elevated between 10-15 kts with areas of LLWS possible through sunrise. Thereafter, gusts will pick up significantly after 15-16z in excess of 25 kts, with potential peak gusts as high as 30-35 kts possible sometime between the 16-20z timeframe. The strong wind gusts will likely result in areas of BLDU, which could result in temporary reductions in visibilities to sub-VFR conditions. Much greater confidence exists in lofted dust resulting in slantwise visibility issues through much of the daylight hours. Clear skies will prevail through this afternoon before mid to high clouds spread over the region by the evening hours. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy conditions through this afternoon will be the main aviation concern during the upcoming TAF period. North-northwest flow to northeast flow will be common throughout the period, with periodic gusts upwards of 25 kts, at times higher, at KBLH and slightly weaker at KIPL. Mostly clear skies this morning will give way to increasing mid to high clouds by late morning through the afternoon at KIPL and by this evening at KBLH. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and seasonally low humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-30% across the region through Saturday. Winds will turn easterly over the morning, becoming stronger tonight through Saturday across southern AZ. Winds will be strongest over mountain tops during the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow and Saturday, with gusts up to 50-55 mph. Strong gusty winds will spread more to the lower deserts during the daylight hours and be strongest in the morning through early afternoon today, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. These strong easterlies and 20-25% RHs may still create locally elevated fire weather conditions midday through the afternoon tomorrow, but fuels are not the most receptive after recent rains. The easterly breezes will not be nearly as strong during the day Saturday and will trend down further into Sunday. Light showers are possible this weekend, but the chance for wetting rain is low (<10%). A Pacific trough is expected to bring regional rain chances, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555- 557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ530. Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ531>534-536- 538-539-554-559. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ537-540>546-548>551. CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ564-565- 568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Lojero/RW FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Ryan  670 FXUS66 KPQR 161124 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 424 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry with well above average temperatures. Easterly winds will gradually weaken as a trough approaches. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Upper level ridging will continue shifting east as troughing over the northeast Pacific and Alaska progresses eastward. Conditions remain dry across the region with another day of above normal temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands, 10-15 degrees above the normal low to mid 60s. Highs along the coast will be much closer to normal as the offshore pressure gradient continues to weaken, allowing westerly onshore flow to return and marine stratus to push into the coast. Highs expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. High level clouds will also increase through the day as the upper level trough progresses. The offshore pressure gradient between Troutdale and the Dalles will continue to weaken through the day which will gradually decrease easterly winds to less than 10 mph by the afternoon. An embedded shortwave trough passing to the north will glance the region, sending a cold front through the area tonight and into Saturday morning. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. -19/DH .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather expected on Sunday as flow aloft becomes more zonal with the passage of the shortwave trough. Highs very similar to Saturday peaking in the mid 60s for most interior lowlands and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Cluster analysis continues to depict a trough impacting the region Monday and Tuesday but trends have the trough taking a more southeast trajectory and just glancing NW OR and SW WA. Approximately 40% of ensemble members have light QPF for the Portland area while 60% of members have light QPF around Newport. Models continue to track this trough more towards northern California, limiting any decent rainfall across the forecast area. Chances for 24-hour rainfall totals exceeding 0.25 inches between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have dropped to 10-15% along the coast and coast range, southern Willamette Valley, and the OR Cascade Foothills. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -19/DH && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Saturday...Upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the exception of deteriorated conditions along the coast overnight through the early afternoon and low chances within the interior lowlands overnight. Specifically, there is a 50-60% chance of IFR and 40-50% chance of LIFR conditions along the coast between 13-23Z Fri, earliest at KONP and latest at KAST. As for inland terminals, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions between 11-18Z Fri, with the highest chances at KEUG. Expect mostly easterly winds until 18Z Fri, then becoming light and variable through the rest of the TAF period. The central and southern Willamette Valley will likely remain light and variable through the TAF period. Elevated winds at and east of KTTD will decrease towards 18-21Z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Breezy easterly winds continue to decrease tonight, with east winds around 4-6 kt expected through the rest of the TAF period beyond 11Z Fri. Additionally, there is a low 10-15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs between 12-18Z Fri. ~12 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Light east/northeasterly winds are transitioning to north/northwesterly winds over the waters through tonight as a thermal trough slowly breaks down. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  720 FXUS64 KLUB 161125 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture responsible for the last couple of days of active weather has finally begin shifting to our east. Dry weather is now in place and will continue through the near term as flow aloft weakens and subsidence persists on the backside of the departing system. Blustery north winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into most of Friday in the wake of our earlier cold front, with sustained speeds expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph range given surface pressure rises on the order of 3 to 5 mb in 3 hours. Lingering high cloud cover and the magnitude of the northerly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too dramatically overnight, but we still expect lows in the 40s area- wide early Friday morning. Friday will be the chilliest day this area has seen in quite some time with temperatures only expected to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. In fact, the last time that Lubbock measured a daytime high below 60 degrees was way back on Mar. 16. Winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and will decrease quite quickly by Friday evening as a surface ridge settles over the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The first freeze of the season still looks likely for portions of the region late Friday night through early Saturday morning. This will be driven by conditions favorable for excellent radiational cooling, with clearing skies and very light winds as the surface ridge builds directly overhead. General consensus of guidance still favors lows on Saturday morning in the upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and low 30s over most of the South Plains. Should clouds be slower to clear than currently expected, temps may be able to remain above freezing, however confidence is high enough in temps near or just below 32F to support a Freeze Watch over the entire Caprock from Friday night through early Saturday morning. This would be an early first freeze for this region, with the climatological average first freeze for many locations still two or three weeks out. Surface flow will gradually obtain a stronger southerly component on Saturday as surface ridging shifts to our east, but will be weak enough to support one more very cool day with highs still in the 50s and low 60s Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will become more robust Sunday and beyond, which combined with the building of a modest upper ridge axis will boost temperatures back towards normal for this time of year next week. Models are in good agreement keeping our area dry through at least Tuesday, with mid/upper moisture and precipitation chances possibly returning during the second half of the week as a deep upper low settles to our west. For now though, a dry forecast is still favored with poor model consensus at this lead time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR is anticipated through the TAF period. However, strong northerly winds will persist through the day on Friday and not decrease until early in the evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01  820 FXUS62 KMLB 161127 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 727 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain chances rise today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible. - Breezy to windy conditions develop behind a passing front Saturday afternoon and continue through the weekend into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...A cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. today pushing high pressure north of the area farther east. Winds weaken and will be somewhat variable today, with the east coast sea breeze developing into the afternoon and winds along the coast becoming onshore and increasing to 5-10 mph. Moisture continues to build northward across the area with PW values around 2.0" across the area today. This will lead to greater rain chances today (around 50-70%), with scattered showers and storms developing primarily into the afternoon and evening. However isolated to scattered coastal showers will be possible this morning. Temps remain relatively warm aloft (around -6C at 500mb), but there will be some pockets of drier air aloft, with DCAPE values around 500-800 J/kg that may still lead to a few stronger storms today. Main threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. Slow storm motion toward the N-NE and moist airmass in place may lead to locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches from any storms or heavier showers. This may lead to mostly minor flooding, but with saturated ground conditions can't completely rule out an isolated instance of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall exits across much of the area today. Temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland. More humid conditions today will also produce peak heat index values around 98-102F. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Thursday...Cold front pushes southward through the area Saturday, with north-northeast winds becoming breezy to windy into the afternoon. Sustained winds look to increase to 15-20 mph inland and up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. While a Wind Advisory for portions of the coast can't be completely ruled out for Saturday afternoon, better potential exists along the coast into Saturday night and across much of the area Sunday, as northeast winds increase further from tightening pressure gradient between strong high building in north of the stalled front south of the area. Gusts up to 35-40 mph (potentially slightly higher along the coast) will be possible. A tight pressure gradient will continue through early to middle portion of next week, as cut-off low develops a strong area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds across the region. This prolonged period of increased onshore flow, will lead to hazardous coastal conditions. Rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will be present at all area beaches. Entering the water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles. High coverage of showers and isolated to scattered storms will continue into Saturdaywith the passing front, with highest rain chances southeast of the I-4 corridor. As flow veers onshore persistent shower bands or storms may still lead to a risk of flooding, mainly along the Treasure Coast into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall persists for this region tomorrow. Drier air works in behind the front lowering PW values below 1.5" by Sunday, but the strong NE breeze will still generate rounds of scattered onshore moving showers Sunday and through much of next week, with greatest potential for rain across the coastal counties. A few storms pushing onshore will also be possible, mainly south of the Cape. It will turn cooler behind the front into the weekend with highs falling as low as the the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday and Monday, and then some gradual warming is forecast. Overnight lows drop into the 60s, but along the immediate coast the stronger NE breeze may keep min temps in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue through tonight before this weekend's cold frontal passage. Onshore winds weaken today as high pressure north of the region continues eastward ahead of the approaching front. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 knots today, with wind direction veering to the S/SW into tonight. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Onshore moving scattered showers and isolated storms will continue south of the Cape through early this morning, with coverage increasing and building northward over the coastal waters past sunrise. A few offshore moving storms producing gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes will also be possible into the afternoon/evening. Saturday-Tuesday...Cold front pushes southward across the waters Saturday, with rapidly deteriorating conditions behind the boundary. N/NE winds quickly increase to 20-30 knots behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. A Gale Watch has been issued across the Volusia County waters starting at 11 AM Saturday and expands to the Brevard waters at 2 PM tomorrow afternoon. Gale conditions then make take a longer time to work their way southward into the Treasure Coast waters (maybe not until late Saturday night/Sunday), so for now have issued a Small Craft Advisory for this portion of the waters starting late afternoon Saturday. A strong NE breeze then persists Sunday into at least Monday, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast to continue. Seas also quickly build behind the front to 10-15 feet through Saturday night, with seas remaining elevated around these heights through early next week. High coverage of showers and storms will continue into Saturday, with repeated rounds of gusty scattered showers pushing southwest across the waters and onshore behind the front through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A few storms will continue to be possible as well behind the front, mainly south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered showers and storms are ongoing from MLB southward along the coast this morning. Have maintained VCSH form MLB southward through the morning. Have added TEMPOs through 13Z from VRB southward for 4SM SHRA with MVFR CIGs, but these may need to be adjusted. Winds will become more variable across the interior today, while the ECSB causes winds to remain out of the ESE along the coast. Have maintained VCSH/VCTS at coastal terminals after 17Z, expanding to the interior sites after 18Z. Have added TEMPOs for TSRA and MVFR CIGs for MCO, ISM, and SFB starting at 20Z, and PROB30 from TIX southward starting at 18Z. Lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area after 01Z across the interior, and after 04Z along the coast. Winds will then become light and variable this evening and overnight, remaining ESE along the coast. However, scattered showers and storms will approach from the north tonight as a cold front pushes across the area. Have added VCTS starting at 09/11Z for interior sites and DAB. May need to add VCSH/VCTS along other coastal sites later tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 71 79 66 / 60 40 40 10 MCO 91 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 MLB 87 72 83 69 / 70 50 70 40 VRB 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60 LEE 90 72 78 63 / 40 20 30 10 SFB 90 73 80 66 / 70 40 30 10 ORL 90 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 FPR 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ550-570. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  910 FXUS64 KBMX 161130 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 619 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region today, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 This evening we have a cold front extending from the Great Lakes SWWD to AR and swinging back into Central TX. This front should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area on Friday. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon and evening. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before the front moves through, we will still see enough warming Friday for max temps to be above normal going into the 80s. The exception may be in the far NW counties where there will be less time to heat up before the front arrives where it may not get out of the 70s. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Friday afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for many on Friday night and for all Saturday/Sunday nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry with Eastern Conus surface ridging. 08 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad swath of cloudiness from north Texas to the Great Lakes, associated with a cold front. That front is forecast to push into Alabama later today. The main impact from its passage, from an aviation standpoint, will be a substantial increase in wind speeds and wind gust factor. Will also have to watch ceilings within the cloud band. We currently are keep conditions VFR, with ceilings no lower than 4000 ft. However, there are lower ceilings currently back upstream, and if the low level dry air doesn't mix in enough then there could be some MVFR conditions in central Alabama terminals as well. Rain showers along the front are pretty spotty, and we don't foresee any impacts from a stray light shower that may happen to hit a TAF site. Winds will stay up (and gusty) well after frontal passage overnight, while the clouds should quickly clear out. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area today, leading to gusty winds, isolated light showers, and much drier and cooler conditions behind it. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 47 65 41 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 85 47 65 43 / 20 10 0 0 Birmingham 84 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 49 68 44 / 20 10 0 0 Calera 85 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 Auburn 84 50 67 48 / 20 20 0 0 Montgomery 87 51 69 47 / 20 20 0 0 Troy 86 49 68 47 / 20 20 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../61/  135 FXUS65 KFGZ 161133 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 433 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue today. Saturday remains cool with less wind. A series of storm systems will impact the region starting Saturday night and continuing through most of next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times along with cool temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure has developed over the Great Basin, with a weak low cutting off near the northern Baja coast. This has created strong easterly pressure gradients, and very gusty east to northeast winds in the favored higher terrain and downslope regions. Some of the strongest winds of the event are expected a bit later this morning through early afternoon in these areas, including the Flagstaff region and eventually the Little Colorado River Valley where gusts of 40-55 mph are expected. Gradients will slowly weaken later tonight into Saturday morning, though there will still be gusty winds at times through at least mid day Saturday. By Saturday evening through Monday, the low off the Baja is forecast to weaken and move slowly northeastward, allowing for some moisture to the south to get pulled in toward our area. There will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms at times through this period, especially over higher terrain. Rainfall totals through Monday look light for most areas, with some localized 0.50" amounts in heavier showers. Tuesday through Thursday - a deeper low pressure system is forecast to develop off the California coast by Tuesday and then slowly move eastward across our region through the end of the week. The result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times through the period. Some deeper moisture could be drawn into the system toward Wednesday and Thursday. The latest NBM probabilities of 0.50" or greater rainfall from Wed AM to Fri AM are 50-70% along the higher terrain upslope regions, with 1.00" probabilities in the 30-50% range. Cooler temperatures and gusty south/southwest winds are also expected as this system moves in. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/12Z through Saturday 17/12Z...VFR conditions expected. Northeast through east winds through the period. Speeds generally between 15-25 kts, with localized gusts near 35-45 kts through around 02Z. Winds decreasing to 10-20 kts with localized gusts 25-30 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/12Z through Monday 19/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Winds will remain elevated out of the east at 10-20 kts through 18Z Saturday, before becoming light/variable through the end of the period. Increasing clouds by Saturday afternoon, with isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA possible Saturday night onward. Brief MVFR in heavier showers. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through this afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along/southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish tonight, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 15-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Sunday through Tuesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, with chances increasing and spreading to most of northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038. &&$$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  224 FXUS61 KBTV 161136 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 736 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... No significant changes were made with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... 1. A strong storm system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds today, followed by much colder weather and mountain snow showers on Saturday. 2. Next week continues to look very quiet with temperatures near normal and high confidence of an extended dry period of weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 232 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure is currently moving through central Michigan this morning, spreading rain across southern Ontario and into northern/central New York. Much of this rain isn't reaching the ground yet per NYS Mesonet observations, but expect it won't take much longer for the atmosphere to moisten enough for rain to arrive in earnest. This precipitation shield will continue to spread over New York and into Vermont early this morning as the low lifts along the St Lawrence Valley before shifting eastward just north of the international border. There are still some indications that one this first round of rain moves through, precipitation will turn more showery in nature with some spots getting a bit of a break around mid morning. Meanwhile, a 55+ kt 850 mb jet, currently moving into the eastern Great Lakes, will also make its way to our area. There's still some question how much of this will be able to mix to the ground as it will be somewhat coincident with the steadier rain, especially in northern New York. However, it will at least allow temperatures to surge into the upper 50s/low 60s. Mountain summits will be very windy as well, with gusts to 60 mph expected. Gusts will also likely be strong in the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the Greens, due to funneling down the valley and downsloping off the higher terrain. The aforementioned dry break could coincide with the jet's arrival at these areas, so mixing could be better as well. Hence still anticipate gusts up to 40 mph in these locations, with perhaps some briefly higher gusts at times. This could be enough to bring a few branches down, perhaps resulting in isolated power outages, but widespread impacts are not expected at this time. Elsewhere, gusts will remain in the 25 to 35 mph range. The low moves to our north by mid day, dragging its attendant cold front across northern New York and Vermont during the afternoon and early evening. The latest CAM guidance shows convective showers developing ahead of/along this front as it pushes southeastward. We'll have little to no instability given the early morning rainfall, so anticipate showers won't be organized or strong/severe in our area. Still, there may be a few rumbles of thunder, especially in southern Vermont. Total rainfall through the daylight hours today will be 0.50 to 1.0 inch, with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front, ushering in a much colder airmass. Moisture will linger for a time overnight, and the northwest flow will cause showers to focus on the favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. Rain will gradually transition to snow as temperatures fall overnight. Showers should wane in coverage through the night and especially Saturday morning as drier air works in behind a secondary front, coming to an end by afternoon. Between the brief timing of snow and the relatively warm ground, snow accumulations will be minimal and mainly confined to elevations above 1500 ft. Even there, accumulations will likely be half inch or less. The highest summits could see upwards of 2 inches or so. Saturday will be much colder, with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sun should start to break out in the afternoon, but winds will remain brisk, with gusts 25 to 30 mph. The morning will start out with wind chills in the teens and 20s; the summits will likely feel like the single digits in the morning, with negative numbers possible. These wind chills improve only slightly through the day, so anyone who has outdoor plans should prepare for bitterly cold conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2: South to southwest flow will resume on Sunday, and we will moderate closer to seasonal norms with widespread 50s for highs under high pressure. This high pressure should shift north and east, then to start the work week, another high pressure over Quebec will dive southeastward into northern New England and the southern Canadian Maritimes, keeping our forecast area dry. Ahead of a weak back door cold front, daytime temperatures will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday, decreasing slightly for the second half of the week. Nighttime temperatures next week fall into the mid 20s to lower 40s. Fire weather concerns will increase next week due to the long duration of dry weather anticipated, but winds will remain mostly light and terrain driven under high pressure. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday... A strong storm system is bringing widespread rain, MVFR ceilings, lowered visibilities, low level wind shear, and gusty surface winds today, followed by mountain snow showers tonight. Rain has begun across northern New York and Vermont this morning, resulting in visibility restrictions of 4-6 miles or higher, with a few brief periods of 1-3 mile vis in heavier precipitation. On and off rain showers will continue today, with lull periods in between. Precipitation will likely come to an end around 22Z Friday - 00Z Saturday, potentially lingering later and changing to a rain/snow mix in the mountain sites (SLK, MPV, EFK) around 02Z-06Z Saturday. Highest confidence of any snow is at SLK from 03Z-08Z Saturday. Lowered ceilings are also in full swing across the forecast area this morning, with cigs ranging from 300 to 3100 feet above ground level. We expect mostly ceilings between 1200-3500 for much of today at BTV, PBG, MPV, and RUT. Site MSS has already reported steady ceilings 300-500 feet AGL this morning in northeasterly flow, and we expect IFR or LIFR ceilings to persist through around 21Z Friday. Sites SLK and EFK have the potential for IFR ceilings as well, most likely between 15Z and 21Z Friday. Otherwise, sites could see occasional dips into IFR cig territory throughout the day today. Winds aloft will be strong (30-55 knots) today out of the southwest, resulting in periods of LLWS at all sites over the next 24 hours. Surface winds are also already beginning to mix down some breezier gusts 15-30 knots out of the south, except at MSS which has its northeasterly wind 5-10 knots instead. Winds will continue to be gusty over the next 24 hours, turning more southwesterly around 15Z-22Z Friday. Highest gusts are expected in the Champlain Valley 35-40 knots out of the south from 14Z through 20Z Friday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today. South winds will increase early this morning, becoming 15 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Locally higher gusts possible. Winds will turn to the northwest and lessen somewhat after a cold front moves through later this afternoon, but the Lake Wind Advisory will likely need to remain in place through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings DISCUSSION...Taber/Hastings/Storm AVIATION...Storm MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  311 FXUS65 KBYZ 161138 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 538 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier conditions into next week. - Breezy conditions along the foothills west of Billings, tonight into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday... Upper level ridging builds into the region through Saturday. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast as a result. Expect high temperatures in the 50s and 60s today before warming further into the 70s on Saturday. Models have been consistently showing breezy winds coming out of the Bighorn Basin today, bringing gusts in the 30s and 40s mph south of Billings to the MT/WY border. A dry cold front will move through the area Saturday evening, bringing high temperatures down into the 50s and 60s for Sunday. The latest forecast has temperatures in the 60s to low 70s for the first half of the week. Depending on the track of a low off the west coast middle of next week, the region could get into a pattern of daily afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms. Currently there are low chances for precipitation across south- central MT Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still uncertainty at this time, so watch the forecast to see how this system progresses. TS/PM .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds turn southerly today with many locations gusting into the 20s kts. Winds increase further along portions of the western foothills this evening, with gusts 30-40 kts possible at KLVM overnight into Saturday morning. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063 046/073 043/061 038/066 042/068 044/061 043/064 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B LVM 069 038/072 038/061 035/069 039/067 038/060 037/061 0/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W 23/W HDN 065 033/075 037/065 035/068 037/070 040/063 040/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B MLS 061 036/071 043/061 040/067 043/069 044/062 043/065 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 4BQ 061 040/075 044/063 041/068 046/072 046/065 046/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B BHK 058 038/075 041/063 036/066 040/072 042/066 040/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 01/U 01/B SHR 065 035/077 038/063 035/068 038/070 040/064 039/066 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  373 FXUS63 KSGF 161140 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s today, and in the 60s over the weekend. Additionally, expect gusty northerly winds up to 25-35 mph with isolated patches of light rain today. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks (50-95% chance). - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a windy night as the backside pressure gradient of a textbook mid-latitude cyclone overspreads the region. Associated cold air advection with the 20-30 mph wind gusts have dropped temperatures into the 50s, on track for locations to reach the 40s as dawn arrives. Meanwhile, very thin streaks of light rain are progressing through the eastern Ozarks along the 850-700 mb portion of the cold front that stretches all the way from the low in Michigan, to north-central Mexico. Based on mesoanalysis, this cold front arguably then extends northwest into SW Arizona and SE California, where an upper-level low currently churns. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s today: Persistent cold air advection from 18-23 mph sustained north- northwesterly winds (with gusts up to 30-35 mph), paired with increasing low-level clouds from the comma head of the mid-latitude cyclone will keep temperatures quite cool today, with highs right around 50 for most locations except for extreme south-central Missouri where temperatures could reach near 60 F. After brief morning sunshine, patches of light rain later: HREF mean cloud layer output depicts the current cloud shield seen on infrared satellite imagery to clear to the southeast early this morning. This will allow for some brief sunshine before the aforementioned comma-head low-level clouds will overspread the region. Within this regime, forecast soundings depict a thin layer of moisture below dry air and capping aloft at 700 mb. Below 700 mb, short-term guidance actually depicts a very short layer of instability upwards of 50-75 J/kg. With northerly winds up the slope of the Ozark Plateau, this will likely create streaks of weak "convective" sprinkles across the area this afternoon. Increasing confidence in patchy frost/freezes this weekend: As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. Lows are also forecast to be colder in the 30s, which will bring frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings. However, tonight into Sunday morning will still have wind speeds of 8-12 mph along with residual cloud cover, which should limit much of any frost potential. The much higher confidence falls on Saturday night and Sunday morning as the bulk of the high pressure brings calmer winds and clear skies. The best chance of frost appears to be in the eastern Ozarks where lows are forecast to range from 30-34 F, meaning that some areas, especially those in low-lying valleys, could see below 30 F. Latest Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning. Latest Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures next week: Global ensembles are then coming into better agreement on a slow wave progression of a digging trough/low over the SW CONUS. This will lead to a prolonged amplified ridging pattern over our area, renewing southerly surface flow, keeping weather dry, and initiating a warming trend to well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. Highs Monday are forecast to be around 70 F, with highs reaching the lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. For context, normal highs for that time of year are in the upper 60s. Currently, October (MTD) is the 2nd warmest on record, coming off of the warmest ever September on record. While the cool temperatures this weekend will put a dent in that placement, a return to persistent above normal temperatures will likely keep this October ranked amongst some of the warmest. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 An MVFR cloud deck is currently clearing SGF and BBG, and should lift from MVFR during the very early portions of the 12Z TAF period until 15-17Z when another MVFR cloud deck will move in from the north. This second deck should last until around 06Z, but may break up a bit before, or stick around a bit after that. Otherwise, winds will be breezy out of the north-northwest with sustained speeds at 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25-30 kts through 00Z before gradually diminishing to 5-10 kts by the end of the TAF period. Some isolated to scattered light convective showers are possible between 18-00Z, but the light nature should keep any visibility reduction above 6 SM at TAF sites. And, no lightning is expected with these. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price  425 FXUS64 KCRP 161141 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A cold front this morning will bring strong north winds, cooler temperatures and drier conditions to South Texas. - Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening. - A Wind Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight. - Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. - Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Saturday. - Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country. - Low to medium rain chances across South Texas this morning associated with the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front can be seen via satellite and radar moving south to southeast across the Hill Country. The cold front is expected to move through S TX later this morning, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable tonight. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week. Rain chances associated with the cold front will be highest across the Rio Grande Plains with up to 55% chance and across the gulf waters with up to 70% across the offshore waters. The Brush Country, Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads have a 15-30% chance of mainly showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible. The rain is expected to end from northwest to southeast this afternoon. Strong north winds behind the cold front will be a concern with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect across S TX starting this morning. Winds are expected to decrease below advisory levels initially across the western areas this afternoon, then across the eastern areas tonight. The islands are expected to remain at advisory levels through Saturday morning. Gale conditions are expected later this morning as the cold front pushes offshore, and will likely continue through Saturday morning to early Saturday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening, but will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong northerly winds and large seas across the gulf waters and swell periods of 8-9 seconds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. In addition, the long period swells will be conducive for a moderate rip current risk today through Saturday. The north winds along the shore tend to negate the rip current risk, but given the long period swells and large seas, should lead to a moderate risk. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. A strong cold front began moving into the northern terminals (COT and VCT), and will move into the LRD, ALI and CRP sites between 12-14Z, bringing a brief period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and a low chance of showers. In addition, winds will go from light and variable to a strong north wind as the cold front moves southward across the region. Winds are expected to build to 20-30 knots with gusts around 35-40 knots, especially ALI and CRP. Winds are expected to gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters later thismorning, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8). A Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front this morning will bring a strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 57 73 55 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 79 53 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 79 56 72 52 / 60 0 0 0 Alice 81 55 72 52 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 84 59 75 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 53 72 50 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 55 72 53 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 61 73 62 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240. Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...NP/92  773 FXUS61 KPHI 161148 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 748 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Low pressure over the Great Lakes lifts northeast into the Province of Ontario by daybreak, then into the Province of Quebec as the day progresses. A warm front south of the area lifts north through the region this morning, then low pressure passing north of northern New England will drag a cold front through the region this afternoon and evening. Some light showers will impact the area through daybreak or so, possibly into the late morning with the passage of that warm front. Clouds over the area will lift and dissipate somewhat this afternoon, and then it will warm up quite nicely with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. With clouds breaking up and sunshine developing, gusty southwest winds will usher a more humid airmass into the area with surface dew points in the mid and upper 60s. While instability values will be relatively low, generally SBCAPE values and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg, but 06-km Bulk Shear will be upwards of 55-60 kt. SPC has the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Timing looks to be around 4pm to 6pm for the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, 5pm to 7pm along the I-95 corridor, and from 6pm to 8 pm over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. After sunset, with loss of diurnal heating, the risk for severe weather will diminish. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 25 to 35 mph gusts. Much cooler and drier on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points in the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The primary trough axis looks to pass over the region by Saturday evening, with subtle height falls through Saturday night and into Sunday. Guidance is coming into better agreement that a portion of the trough will close off and linger offshore in the vicinity of the Carolinas, but high pressure will be settling into the region from the northwest. The end result should be mostly clear skies and diminishing winds through Saturday night. With the coldest airmass so far this season settling into the region, the primary question remaining for Saturday night's temperatures is how quickly winds diminish. Current indications are that it could remain a bit breezy through much of the evening, shortening the window of good radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, by dawn Sunday winds should be fairly light at least across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and adjacent northern NJ. Given this, the current forecast calls for temperatures at or below freezing across these areas. For southeastern PA and central and southern portions of inland NJ, temperatures will likely still fall into the mid 30s. Upper 30s to low 40s are expected across much of Delmarva and coastal NJ. Regarding frost, the airmass that will be infiltrating the area will also be fairly dry, so good radiational cooling will be needed to get widespread frost. Given this, the potential for widespread frost appears limited at this time to the Poconos and far northern NJ, with patchy frost still possible across the remainder of our eastern PA counties and inland NJ, especially the Pine Barrens. Frost and/or freeze headlines are still very likely to be needed for at least parts of the area Saturday night. Temperatures will begin slowly moderating Sunday into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...IFR CIGs in the morning, gradually lifting to VFR from 16Z to 20Z. A line of SHRA and TSRA will move fairly quickly across the terminals generally from 18Z to 21Z at KRDG/KABE, 19Z to 22Z at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, and from 20Z to 23Z at KMIV/KACY. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z, then VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...VFR. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday night through Monday night...Primarily VFR. There is a slight chance for a few rain showers for the near-coast terminals. Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. for later today. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters early this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 35 kt gusts are possible Saturday morning. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Advisory conditions likely with gales likely for the outer marine zones. North winds 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Seas 4-7 feet. Sunday...Advisory conditions may linger for much of the day with north-northeast winds 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Winds should begin to subside later in the day. Seas 4-7 feet, diminishing to 3-5 feet late. Sunday night through Tuesday...There is low confidence due to the potential influence of a possible developing surface low to the south of the region. Advisory conditions may re-develop and could potentially continue at times through Tuesday with elevated north-northeast winds and increasing seas. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/MPS/RCM  761 FXUS63 KDMX 161147 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 647 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds this morning topping 40 mph at times - Rain showers expected north and east this morning. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Short wave trough is passing through Iowa currently with a cold front approaching the state as well over Minnesota and South Dakota. Surface low pressure is over Michigan with a broad area of stratus and some showers extending west and just behind the upper level trough passage. The main forecast challenge this morning will be the wind gusts and if they reach advisory criteria. The pressure gradient will continue to increase this morning and maximize this morning over north central Iowa around 35 ubars/km. The primary pressure height rises will be to the north of the state but will also clip across northern Iowa. The mixed layer depth this morning while the max 925-850 mb winds are passing by though is less certain. Model Sounding profiles remain mostly saturated through this layer with cloud bases around 1500 ft and this is aligning well with the bases currently over southern Minnesota. Some cold advection will be occurring but that will be limited by the moist profiles during this period. The another source of subsidence is the mid-level descent behind the upper level energy, which is further back upstream and will arrive as the mixed layer winds are diminishing. The current wind gusts upstream are mostly below 35 kts. A few higher gusts have been associated with area with rain showers. Those showers will move across the north and east this morning so will continue to monitor and at this time, will hold off on wind headlines. May need a Special Weather Statement if the higher gusts continue with any rain showers and will reconsider an advisory if it becomes more widespread. The wind will begin to diminish this afternoon and should get some breaks in the stratus over northern Iowa by mid to late afternoon as high pressure ridging approaches from the west. Profiles should quickly decouple around sunset leading to the wind further diminishing. Overnight low temperatures are the challenge for the overnight. A big factor in the challenge for temperatures overnight is the shallow cold layer near the surface with a relatively steep inversion just 500-700 ft off the surface. This type of a steep and low inversion can prove difficult for surface temperatures to fall off too much. Factoring in the new wet ground and also still warmer, and the ground itself won't cool quickly. The wind also may not completely go calm with the high center off to the southwest so some uncertainly on the level of radiational cooling that can be achieved. Despite the uncertainty, big picture for Iowa, still expect several areas to reach freezing or below, especially north and west and widespread frost for most areas. Coldest temperatures will be rural with warmer areas in the larger metros including Des Moines where frost is expected even if freezing temperatures are not achieved. Coordinated a transition from the Freeze Watch to a Warning and as noted above, some areas may not reach freezing but this will be the first cold impacts of this Fall season. Saturday will be mostly sunny and will become breezy from the south as return flow arrives. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs are moving across central Iowa this morning along with showers over central and northern Iowa. A brief period with IFR cigs is expected at KMCW/KALO early. The showers will move through early in the period. The MVFR cigs will persist into the afternoon before clearing. Gusty northwest/north wind will increase this morning. Gusts over 35 kts are possible. In addition, a few gusts over 40kts could occur with showers and decaying showers this morning. The gusts will begin to diminish this afternoon then will fall off with rapid decoupling near sunset. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Donavon  800 FXUS61 KCLE 161149 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 749 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area today into Saturday. 2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre- frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning, while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the I-71/I-77 corridors. Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30 mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place with the building high should result in efficient radiative cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper 20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed. Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with increasing warm air advection. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... It will be an unsettled TAF period with showers and low ceilings at times. A cold front is crossing the area this morning, as of 12z it has just cleared CLE-MFD and is approaching ERI-YNG-CAK. A broken line of moderate to heavy rain showers (but very little to no lightning thus far) with some 30-35kt wind gusts is accompanying the front. Behind the front ceilings are generally in an MVFR range...while there will be some fluctuations through the day, the general trend will be MVFR ceilings. Rain briefly stops behind the front, though another widespread batch of mainly light rain showers expected to fill in 13-17z and continue through the afternoon. A secondary front is expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z this evening. Some more moderate showers can accompany this secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites as MVFR ceilings persist into tonight. Northerly winds aligning over Lake Erie will allow light to moderate lake effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of CLE. Ceilings will gradually climb and scatter out tonight into Saturday as drier air works in, though this process will be slowest south of Lake Erie. Winds are shifting west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with the first front, and then will turn more northerly this evening and tonight behind the secondary front. Winds will remain 10-15kt tonight, but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to Lake Erie, especially impacting CLE and ERI. Outlook...Mainly VFR expected.&& .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high pressure influences much of the weather pattern. Water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches above low water datum across the western basin early this morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the cold front. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Kahn  785 FXUS61 KPHI 161149 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 749 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Low pressure over the Great Lakes lifts northeast into the Province of Ontario by daybreak, then into the Province of Quebec as the day progresses. A warm front south of the area lifts north through the region this morning, then low pressure passing north of northern New England will drag a cold front through the region this afternoon and evening. Some light showers will impact the area through daybreak or so, possibly into the late morning with the passage of that warm front. Clouds over the area will lift and dissipate somewhat this afternoon, and then it will warm up quite nicely with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. With clouds breaking up and sunshine developing, gusty southwest winds will usher a more humid airmass into the area with surface dew points in the mid and upper 60s. While instability values will be relatively low, generally SBCAPE values and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg, but 06-km Bulk Shear will be upwards of 55-60 kt. SPC has the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Timing looks to be around 4pm to 6pm for the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, 5pm to 7pm along the I-95 corridor, and from 6pm to 8 pm over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. After sunset, with loss of diurnal heating, the risk for severe weather will diminish. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 25 to 35 mph gusts. Much cooler and drier on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points in the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The primary trough axis looks to pass over the region by Saturday evening, with subtle height falls through Saturday night and into Sunday. Guidance is coming into better agreement that a portion of the trough will close off and linger offshore in the vicinity of the Carolinas, but high pressure will be settling into the region from the northwest. The end result should be mostly clear skies and diminishing winds through Saturday night. With the coldest airmass so far this season settling into the region, the primary question remaining for Saturday night's temperatures is how quickly winds diminish. Current indications are that it could remain a bit breezy through much of the evening, shortening the window of good radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, by dawn Sunday winds should be fairly light at least across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and adjacent northern NJ. Given this, the current forecast calls for temperatures at or below freezing across these areas. For southeastern PA and central and southern portions of inland NJ, temperatures will likely still fall into the mid 30s. Upper 30s to low 40s are expected across much of Delmarva and coastal NJ. Regarding frost, the airmass that will be infiltrating the area will also be fairly dry, so good radiational cooling will be needed to get widespread frost. Given this, the potential forwidespread frost appears limited at this time to the Poconos and far northern NJ, with patchy frost still possible across the remainder of our eastern PA counties and inland NJ, especially the Pine Barrens. Frost and/or freeze headlines are still very likely to be needed for at least parts of the area Saturday night. Temperatures will begin slowly moderating Sunday into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...IFR CIGs in the morning, gradually lifting to VFR from 16Z to 20Z. A line of SHRA and TSRA will move fairly quickly across the terminals generally from 18Z to 21Z at KRDG/KABE, 19Z to 22Z at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, and from 20Z to 23Z at KMIV/KACY. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z, then VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...VFR. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday night through Monday night...Primarily VFR. There is a slight chance for a few rain showers for the near-coast terminals. Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. for later today. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters early this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt gusts are likely Saturday morning. Upgraded Gale Watch to Gale Warning Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Advisory conditions likely with gales likely for the outer marine zones. North winds 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Seas 4-7 feet. Sunday...Advisory conditions may linger for much of the day with north-northeast winds 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Winds should begin to subside later in the day. Seas 4-7 feet, diminishing to 3-5 feet late. Sunday night through Tuesday...There is low confidence due to the potential influence of a possible developing surface low to the south of the region. Advisory conditions may re-develop and could potentially continue at times through Tuesday with elevated north-northeast winds and increasing seas. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS/RCM MARINE...Cooper/MPS/RCM  962 FXUS63 KGID 161111 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 611 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-Freezing temperatures likely tonight-Saturday morning across the area. A Freeze Watch is in effect 1-9am. - Highs in the 50s today with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph this morning, strongest across northeastern portions of the area. - After a cold start to the day on Saturday, temperatures climb back into the 60s Saturday/Sunday. - Seasonably warm and largely dry weather expected next week with highs climbing into the 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a chilly and windy morning across the area. Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the low 40s with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph. As the back edge of the departing trough/low swings over the area this morning, low stratus with a few embedded showers will slide across northeastern portions of the area. Any rain from these showers will be little more than sprinkles, but showers could bring gustier winds to the surface. Any sprinkles should come to an end by the mid morning hours (9-10am). Northerly winds gusting 30-45mph are expected to continue throughout the morning hours, with the strongest gusts across east/northeastern portions of the area. Winds steadily drop off this afternoon as the deepening low over the Midwest moves into the eastern U.S. and a high pressure system sets up over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected today with highs topping out in the low 50s. Skies will be partly-mostly cloudy to start the day, with skies becoming clear by the late afternoon-early evening. Under the influence of a seasonably cool airmass, clear skies, and light winds, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. This will result in the seasons first freeze across the area. The freeze watch will likely be converted to a freeze warning later today as confidence is fairly high in widespread sub-freezing temperatures (26-31 degrees) tonight-Saturday morning. Can't rule out northwestern portions of the area climbing back above freezing by sunrise as warm air advection moves into the area, though at least a few hours of sub-freezing temperatures are still favored for these locations. After a cold start to the day, temperatures climb back towards normal by the afternoon with highs in the low 60s. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours, gusting 20-35mph. Temperatures dip back into the upper 30s Sunday morning, though frost/freezing conditions are not anticipated. Breezy and seasonable weather continues Sunday with highs in the 60s. Otherwise the forecast remains on track through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures steadily climb throughout next week with highs in the 70s-low 80s by the middle-end of the week. Largely dry weather is anticipated through the middle of next week though can't completely rule out some low PoPs as disturbances move through the southwesterly flow aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs possible through 16z, otherwise VFR conditions expected during TAF period. SCT-BKN stratus is ongoing across the area, at times CIGs will drop to MVFR but sub-VFR CIGs are not expected to be prevailing. Sub-VFR stratus clears out around 16z with skies clearing during the afternoon. Northerly winds sustained around 20ks and gusting around 30kts are expected through the morning hours. Winds steadily weaken during the afternoon, with gusts dropping to 20kts by the mid afternoon, and becoming light and variable by 00z. Light and variable winds continue throughout the overnight hours, but settle at southerly late in the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Davis  350 FXUS64 KMEG 161118 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 618 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through early week. - Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55, as winds gust up to 30 mph along dry fuels. Elevated winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sunset Friday evening. - Dry weather is expected to persist over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A muggy October night is present across Mid-South after another record-breakingly warm day. Friday will be a different story as a strong cold front, currently extending across southeastern Missouri and central Arkansas, sweeps across our area. Temperatures and dewpoints will begin to plummet overnight and into the day Friday. Winds will also begin to sustain around 15- 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph early Friday and persisting through sunset. A combination of abnormally dry fuels, decreased relative humidity, and elevated winds will lead to an elevated fire danger threat Friday. Avoid any recreational burning and properly extinguish and dispose of cigarettes Friday as wildfires can start easily and spread quickly under the aforementioned conditions. High temperatures Friday will be 15-30 degrees lower than Thursday with readings in the mid 60s to upper 70s. As ample dry air and lowered dewpoints will be associated with this cold front, little to no precipitation is expected as this front moves across the Mid-South Friday. Cold air advection and an almost polar in nature airmass will trail behind this leading front resulting in a below normal weekend with cool mornings and pleasant days. Sunday morning will be the chilliest over the next seven days with areas mainly over West Tennessee seeing readings in the upper 30s and the rest of the area in the lower 40s. NBM probs have a 30-50% chance of seeing lows <37 degrees over mainly Northwest Tennessee resulting in potential frost early Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to normal by Monday as cool high pressure begins to build slightly east of our area. Ensembles are hinting at an omega block setting up in the upper levels across the CONUS. Under this pattern, dry weather will continue over the next seven days and temperatures will begin to edge back above normal by Tuesday. This warming pattern will continue through the end of the week with much of the area seeing highs well into the 80s by as early as Wednesday. AEH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front continues to move across the airspace this morning, producing gusty winds at all sites. Gusts to 25 kts are anticipated by midday, persisting into the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs this morning to return to VFR by midday. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South beginning early Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity values will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon. Elevated 20 ft northwest winds around 15-20 mph will accompany decreased relative humidity. Areas generally along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, will result in an elevated fire danger risk Friday afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None.MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...ANS  397 FXUS65 KGJT 161105 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 505 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions and below seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas tonight and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. - Unsettled weather returns mid to late next week with potential for mountain snow and valley rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 FREEZE POTENTIAL: As the trough moves further east over the Midwest, high pressure builds behind over the Great Basin and Intermountain West forming a Rex Block heading into Friday with northerly flow over the region. Much colder air mass settles over the region tonight with lows in the 20s for the northwest Colorado valleys (Yampa River Basin) where a widespread hard freeze appears likely. Other areas in a Freeze Warning tonight include the upper Colorado River valley (COZ008) from Glenwood to Avon and the San Juan River Basin (COZ023). A Freeze Warning remains in effect for those same areas Friday night as well, so depending on how widespread of a hard freeze occurs in these zones would determine whether additional freeze warnings are needed. Outside of these areas, temperatures will be cooler but not expecting temperatures below freezing for the overnight. DRY THIS WEEKEND: High pressure moves overhead by Saturday as the Rex Block breaks down and the low that was at the bottom of the Rex Block will open up and pull enough moisture with it to bring isolated showers to the San Juans as it tracks over the Four Corners Sunday afternoon. This is fairly weak so not expecting much impact but drier conditions overall this weekend with temperatures around 5 degrees or so below seasonable. Isolated showers are possible again over the high terrain Monday afternoon as southwest flow keeps the area a bit unsettled. Temperatures overall will bump up a little bit towards normal but lean on the side of below seasonable for most areas. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: The next chance for impactful weather comes mid to late next week beginning Tuesday as a low pressure system dives down the west coast and forms a deep closed low over the Desert Southwest. Diffluent southwest flow will allow for better orographic showers Tuesday, more scattered over the high terrain. This low will track across the Great Basin and lift across the area, currently timed late Wednesday through Friday of next week with cooler conditions returning and better chances of more widespread precipitation and mountain snow. Details are still a bit uncertain with timing, amounts and how much cold air will arrive with this system but this mid to late next week system is one to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 504 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear skies and light winds will keep VFR conditions solidly in place over the next 24 hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002-005- 008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...TGJT  572 FXUS65 KVEF 161108 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 408 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north to northeast winds this morning will diminish through the afternoon. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the Middle of Next Week. Through the overnight, gusty northeast winds were reports across portions of the area at times. The strongest winds were in the terrain with gusts over 40 MPH reported as higher elevations intercepted a 50KT+ 850-700mb jet. This lower level jet associated with a low pressure system sitting over southern California will remain draped over southern portions of the region through rest of tonight before slowly shifting south and weakening this morning. While gusts are fairly isolated at the moment, expecting a quick uptick in the valleys early this morning as better mixing occurs with sunrise as well as an area of better vorticity advection on the backside of the low. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 10AM this morning which looks good as additional minor wind impacts are possible with the uptick in winds after sunrise. Winds will diminish this afternoon as the low shifts south and weakens. Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH are expected this afternoon, then gusts under 20 MPH are expected through at least Monday. After a brief warm up to near normal today, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. Continuing to watch the potential for weather impacts around midweek as a deep West Coast trough impacts the region. Strong forcing will be associated with this deepening low, which some models have closing off as it moves into central or southern California. This forcing will interact with an uptick in moisture that advects into the region from distant Tropical Storm Simon ahead of the trough. Cluster analysis shows significant variation in how quickly the trough moves into the region as well as how deep it will be once it does so. In addition, models continue to advertise differing solutions on how an IVT plume sets up somewhere over southern Nevada or western Arizona. All that to say- there is significant uncertainty in the forecast details and potential impacts the middle of next week. It's fair to say precipitation is expected at some point after Monday, with snow possible above 8000-9000ft, but rain impacts will not be as significant as what just occurred with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. There also should be an increase in winds ahead of the trough, likely Tuesday, which could result in wind impacts. Low confidence though in exact timing of rain, where the highest impacts will occur, and how much snow to expect in the higher elevations.With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week when the system moves inland. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Northeast breezes continue today, strongest between now and sunset with gusts 15-30 knots. Winds should begin to subside after sunset, eventually falling below 10 knots and becoming variable in direction overnight. Clear skies until high clouds begin to move in early Saturday morning. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds continue today, strongest from now through sunset with gusts generally 15-30 knots. In the southern Great Basin, winds direction will generally be more easterly, with southeast winds in our far northwestern areas. Across the Mojave Desert, expecting more northeasterly winds. Somewhat low confidence wind forecast for the lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon/evening as winds try to turn more east/southeast. However, breezes weaken across the area after sunset. Mostly clear skies with just some high clouds moving in from the south tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  533 FXUS66 KHNX 161107 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 407 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Red Flag Warning issued for the Sierra Nevada above 4000 feet due to high winds and low relative humidity through Friday evening. 2. Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert zones through Friday night with wind gusting up to 60 mph. 3. A warming trend continues through the weekend before a cooldown next week. 4. A pattern change may be upon us early next week as a disturbance crosses the West and introduces unsettled conditions. && .DISCUSSION... We have a red flag warning out tonight into tomorrow. We have a retrograding cutoff low moving west over the next few hours, which slides under the ridge of high pressure which forms a rex block and causes a big relationship issue. And that issue is the winds will increase overnight from the East over the Sierra Crest and Mojave Desert along with lower minimum RH values coupled with the warming temperatures from the ridge. The result is a Red Flag Warning through Friday night due to the combination which already has started some fires in SoCal on Thursday. Minimum RH values are expected to be in the teens across the entire area tomorrow. There is a 10 percent chance of 25 mph gusts along the foothills but a 20 to 40 percent chance of 35 mph gusts along the crest of the Sierra Nevada. Luckily, the rex block weakens significantly on Saturday, as the ridge slides out. Temperatures remain warm but the winds finally die down for the time being. Sunday brings a shortwave trough which will pick up the cutoff low and lift out on Monday. However, things get even spicier as we have a stronger trough slide in late on Monday through Thursday. This trough brings cooler temperatures as we go from a 55 to 85 percent chance of 80s in the Valley south of Merced on Monday to a 35 to 50 percent chance of reaching 70 on Tuesday. The probabilities continue to lower on Wednesday with a 30 to 35 percent chance of hitting 70 before going back up to 45 to 60 percent on next Thursday and Friday. Winds also pick up Monday and Tuesday in the Mojave Slopes and Desert due to this bigger trough. This big pattern change also brings rain to the area. Tuesday has a 5 to 15 percent chance of a tenth of an inch before increasing to 35 to 45 percent on Wednesday. Thursday also looks to have a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain. The CPC has a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook thanks to this trough along with a 33 to 50 percent chance of below average precipitation. However, the 8-14 day CPC outlook shows a change to near normal temperatures except a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures along the west side and a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average precipitation for most of the Valley transition to near normal along the Sierra Nevada and Kern County. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM Friday evening for the Sierra Nevada, Tehachapi, and San Emigdio mountains above 4,000 feet due to strong winds from the east and low humidity. Confidence for easterly gusts exceeding 40 MPH is highest (70-90 percent chance) tonight into Friday morning, though isolated areas will experience gusts this fast through the entire warned period. Minimum relative humidity Friday expected between 15-25 percent in the warned areas, with dryer areas as low as 10 percent. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337>339. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ592>597. && $$ public...JPK aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford  506 FXUS62 KMFL 161144 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 744 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 740 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across interior and Southwest Florida today. Isolated to scattered activity possible for Southeast Florida mainly in the morning hours. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. - Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions, with elevated seas and potential for Gale force winds later this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today. As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly and steer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible. Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated coastal showers are moving onshore from the Atlantic but quickly dissipating. This shower activity should linger for a couple more hours. Predominant easterly flow should keep most afternoon convection focused over interior and Southwest Florida. A gulf breeze at KAPF will shift winds west to southwest during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites, but did included VCTS for KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 West Kendall 90 77 87 74 / 30 30 90 60 Opa-Locka 90 77 88 74 / 30 30 90 70 Homestead 90 77 88 75 / 20 40 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 87 74 / 30 40 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 40 90 80 Pembroke Pines 90 76 88 73 / 30 30 90 70 West Palm Beach 89 76 87 73 / 50 40 90 80 Boca Raton 89 76 87 73 / 40 40 90 90 Naples 89 75 84 70 / 40 40 60 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...NMP  267 FXUS62 KRAH 161137 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 737 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 AM Friday... 1) Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. 2) There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. An increasingly-phased and high amplitude trough, apparent in GOES-E WV satellite data from nrn Hudson Bay to the cntl High Plains, will pivot across the ern US through late Sat-Sat night. A vigorous upper jet and front will accompany the trough, with a zone of strong and deep ascent that will overspread cntl NC tonight-Sat. At the surface, a backdoor front has drifted into the nrn Sandhills and the nw Piedmont this morning, about 20-30 miles farther swwd than previously forecast. While low overcast has developed within the pos-trontal regime and would typically slow/retard subsequent nwd retreat of the front, cooling behind the front and the related frontal inversion are not pronounced. Additionally, the MSL pressure pattern surrounding the front over the srn Middle Atlantic, between a 1021 mb high drifting off the coast of New England and a ~1019 mb one off the South Atlantic coast, appear to be reaching equilibrium this morning. As such, it remains likely that the front will retreat quickly nwd with the onset of diurnal heating, in strengthening flow and mass response ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone now deepening across MI. A pre-frontal, Appalachian- lee trough will sharpen across the nw Piedmont this afternoon and precede a strong cold front that will sweep across cntl NC tonight. A growing warm sector throughout cntl NC today will yield yet another day of record temperatures mostly between 85-90 F, accompanied by a gusty swly surface wind that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by midday-early afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along the pre-frontal trough over the nw Piedmont by ~21-22Z, in a regime of weak MLCAPE of generally less than 500 J/kg, but where instability will be relatively maximized as cooling temperatures aloft edge east of the Appalachians. The band of showers will spread ewd and across the remainder of cntl NC this evening, along and immediately following the passing cold front. Anafrontal precipitation character will become increasingly stratiform and probably blossom after midnight, as the intense mid and upper-level trough and jet, and deep zone of Fgen, overspread the Carolinas. The precipitation band will then edge from west to east across cntl NC during the day Sat, with storm total rainfall amounts mostly between a quarter and half inch. It will otherwise turn sharply cooler, with highs Sat 25-30 F below those of today and about 10-15 F below average. A strong and gusty nly wind will make it feel even cooler. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold Saturday and Sunday nights, with some patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. Aloft, it is looking increasingly likely a low will close off within the parent trough as it tracks sewd across the region and offshore Sat/Sat night, though there remain differences wrt where and when that will occur. The low will likely sit/meander near or just off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast through much of the week. At the surface, the ~1036 mb high should lift newd from the OH Valley to the Canadian Maritimes Sat night through Sun night, while the ridge continues to extend swwd across the region. A low is expected to develop offshore, along the front, on Sat before cutting off from the parent trough and deepening as it meanders off the Southeast US/Carolina coast through at least Sun night, possibly through much of the week. However, a good bit of uncertainty remains wrt to this low and its impacts for central NC. Expect breezy conditions on Sun, with a strong pressure gradient between the deepening low offshore and the ridge over the area. The LLJ could remain quite stout on the back (NW) side of the low offshore through Sun night, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible with mixing on Sun, highest east. The jet may be stronger overnight (25-40 kts) both nights and over a much larger area, but those stronger winds are generally not expected to mix down to the surface. Still, some gusts of 15-25 kts cannot be ruled out Sun night given the latest guidance showing a little mixing overnight. There remains a fair amount of spread in the statistical guidance between high and low members for temperatures from Sat night onward, given the uncertainty wrt the low offshore and subsequent impacts. For highs, Sunday should be the coolest day, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected. Highs should rebound a bit on Mon, but still remain below normal, with low to mid 60s forecast. For lows, with continued breezy conditions, generally decreasing cloud cover, and low-level thicknesses around 1320 dam Sat night, will err on the mean for lows, ranging from mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE. With partly cloudy skies, perhaps slightly less breezy conditions, and low-level thicknesses increasing to around 1335 dam Sun night, expect similar lows ranging from upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon morn. With the expected winds overnight/early morning, wind chill values in the low-mid 30s expected across much of the area Sat night, increasing slightly SE into the low 40s SE for Sun night. There could be some mid 30s lows in the usual cooler, sheltered areas of the Piedmont Sun and Mon mornings, especially if the skies clear out, possibly resulting in some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 AM Friday... LIFR-IFR restrictions should disperse and lift through 14Z, probably last at RWI, with the nwd retreat of a front draped from northwest to southeast across cntl NC this morning. VFR conditions will follow, as will gusty swly winds that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by early this afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along a pre-frontal trough invof INT/GSO by ~21-22Z, then linger as a cold front and gusty nwly surface winds surge sewd across cntl NC tonight. The front will focus showers along and immediately behind it as it moves through. Precipitation character will become increasingly stratiform and probably blossom early Sat morning --with related IFR-MVFR restrictions-- as an intense upper- level trough and jet streak pivot toward the Carolinas. Outlook: Rain and related flight restrictions will edge from west to east across cntl NC during the day Sat. Surface winds will veer to nly and remain strong and gusty especially during the daytime through the weekend, in a tight MSL pressure gradient between strong high pressure that will build in from the west and coastal low pressure that will deepen and meander of the coast of the Carolinas. Should surface winds diminish as expected each night, a risk of low- level wind shear will exist both Sat and Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 KRDU: 69/1919 KFAY: 69/1919 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP AVIATION...MWS  810 FXUS65 KABQ 161127 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 523 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Brisk conditions will prevail behind a backdoor cold front today, but with speeds well below yesterday's. - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area from mid through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Wind speeds are trending down more rapidly than previously forecast behind the backdoor front, so have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the middle RGV and South Central Highlands. If current trends continue, we'll likely cancel the remainder of the warning by sunrise. Strong cold air advection behind the front is resulting in brisk conditions and that will continue for most areas today. The current Freeze Warning across portions of northeast and east central NM will need winds to diminish to work out, which is still likely at this time. High temperatures today will range from 5 to 15 degrees below average. Significant drying of the atmosphere is expected today into Saturday as ridging aloft strengthens as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula. With a very dry atmosphere and decoupling winds this evening, an ideal radiational cooling setup will bring the coldest night so far this season and a Freeze Watch is in effect for much of the lower elevations including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros. Below average temperatures will continue Saturday, with highs in the 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Moisture advection will be the rule from Saturday night through Monday as the Baja low fills and ejects northeast into the region, bringing Pacific moisture and increasing chances for precipitation. This will be a top-down moistening process favoring western NM through Monday. All eyes turn to a potent upper level low diving south offshore of CA Tuesday, which is forecast to turn inland over SoCal on Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to rise further through Thursday as the upper level low fills and lifts northeast across the region, steering remnant tropical moisture into NM. Thursday still looks to be the wettest day next week and our forecast PoPs continue to trend up. This will be a warmer system, so rain is likely from the mid-slopes of the mountains into the lower elevations with snow across the peaks. The 00Z medium range model solutions are generally agreeable through at least Thursday, so forecast confidence is moderate to high for a return to wetter conditions next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although with VFR cigs today at KROW. Gusty winds will persist today across central and eastern NM behind the backdoor cold front, although with lower speeds than yesterday's. An Airport Weather Warning will continue at KABQ until 16Z this morning for gusts up to 35kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Gusty winds will continue behind a backdoor cold front today, but well below yesterday's speeds. Drier and colder conditions will prevail behind the cold front through Saturday, with vent rates trending down. A Pacific disturbance will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to western NM Sunday, then spread east into central NM Monday into Tuesday. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late week, with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas from the central mountain chain westward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 62 30 64 36 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 58 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 59 33 62 36 / 0 0 5 20 Magdalena....................... 55 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 54 28 57 35 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 5 20 Glenwood........................ 71 39 68 41 / 0 0 10 20 Chama........................... 59 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 20 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 60 27 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 32 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 65 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 68 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 33 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 29 59 37 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 59 30 62 38 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 58 27 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 25 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 26 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 26 59 35 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 27 56 36 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 25 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 55 24 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 57 24 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 26 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 30 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis..........................58 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ222-223- 228>230. High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ220-225. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11  270 FXUS66 KLOX 161103 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 403 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/359 AM. We are on track for the longest and strongest period of Santa Ana winds today, especially at lower elevations (coastal valleys to coast) with strongest cooridor of winds sliding a bit north into a more traditional Santa Ana setup. High wind warnings and strong wind advisories look good for much of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties with peak winds likely in the 50 to 70 mph range through late morning or early afternoon before gradually weakening. Breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 mph will also extend to most other areas that do not typically get much winds in this type of setup. Red Flag Warnings also continue to be in effect for a large portion of Southwest California. Please take care with fire ignition sources. Moderate-to-high heat risk is equally concerning, especially near the coast with highs again in the 90s to near 100. Temperatures will shoot up quickly this morning and stay quite warm well into the evening, especially where breezy winds continue, increasing the duration of the heat, which is particularly concerning for those without air conditioning or that spend significant time outdoors. A Heat Advisory continues near the coast through Saturday. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Friday. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. A digging trough from the northwest and the return of onshore flow will bring significant cooling and moistening trends along with breezy northwest to onshore winds to the region. Daytime highs by Monday will mostly be in the 70s with a sprinkling of low 80s for warmer valleys. Signs of potentially inclement weather are likely by Monday night in the form of increasing mid to high clouds. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/359 AM. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though low confidence on the details. Virtually all the solutions indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. We may not have a good handle on this system until early next week as our guidance struggles with storms coming from the northwest, especially closed, cut-off low pressure systems. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so there a small potential for heavy rain/flood concerns. && .AVIATION...16/0822Z. At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. High confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 020-030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively. KLAX...High confidence in 06Z in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 17Z to 22Z, with gusts up to 25 kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots. && .MARINE...16/122 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds today. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds this morning. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For tonight and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe/MW AVIATION...RM/Phillips/RAT MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  883 FXUS66 KMTR 161152 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 452 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday before cooler, below normal weather returns Sunday into next week - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 11 AM Friday for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions overnight. Minimal to no overnight humidity recovery is expected with humidity values between 15 to 25% expected. Winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains have picked up across the highest peaks and will spread into the remainder of the NB Interior Mountains tonight. Offshore gusts are expected to peak between 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible across the highest ridgelines. Gusts between 40 to 60 mph have been observed across the highest peaks (3500+ ft) in northern Sonoma and Napa counties. As offshore winds pick up across the rest of the NB Interior Mountains, humidity values will drop with rapid fire spread possible should a fire start. Winds are expected to decrease by late morning with the Red Flag Warning set to expire at 11 AM. Although the winds will have decreased, very dry conditions (RH 10-20%) will persist through the rest of the day with poor overnight recoveries expected Friday into Saturday. As such, near critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. If you are participating in any activity involving flames outdoors, be very careful and do not allow sparks/embers to escape. Listen to all guidance from local officials. Upper level ridging continues with widespread above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk peaking today. Minimal relief is expected along the coast due to upper level ridging mixing out the marine layer. Interior highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s. Portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the southern Santa Clara Valley may reach the upper 90s. Expect hot conditions and patchy Moderate HeatRisk to continue into Saturday although a few degrees cooler than on Friday. If you're not a fan of hot weather, you're in luck as a pattern change is expected Sunday into next week (see Long Term discussion). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday as upper level ridging is replaced by broad troughing. High temperatures cool into the 70s to low 80s across the interior while the coast drops back into the 50s to 60s thanks to the return of the marine layer. Upper level troughing impacts become more pronounced over the course of the next week as a deep upper level low becomes cut-off from the jet stream and lingers along the Central/Southern California coastline through late next week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Alaska will move southwards along the California coast next week. This system will bring a much cooler airmass into the region and see a return of fall temperatures in the 60s to 70s and morning lows in the 40s to low 50s. Recent guidance has trended towards the low staying offshore rather than moving onshore next week. The current forecast shows the highest rain totals along the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains where totals are between a quarter to half an inch. For the lower elevations expect up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and up to a quarter of an inch across the Central Coast. Periods of gusty onshore winds are likely along the coast, the higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes next week. Winds don't look to be widespread enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory but favored windy locations (Altamont Pass) will definitely be gusty. Another item to watch is the potential for thunderstorms with this system. NBM guidance has consistently maintained a low chance (<15%) of thunderstorms across the region. In favor of thunderstorms is the fact that this is a cold core low which is bringing in cooler air and may be more favorable for ice crystal development/eventual lightning development. Anti-thunderstorm development is the new more offshore track of the low which keeps the best MUCAPE and CAPE values offshore. This may be a setup where we see some sort of convective activity over the marine environment but it doesn't make it onto land (if the current track holds). Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Another night of VFR conditions as the picture from space is clear over the Bay Area and Central Coast. The challenge for this TAF cycle is capturing the winds, with offshore flow setting up this morning. Along the coasts, we should see a push of diurnally driven onshore winds for a few hours this afternoon. Winds may be more light and variable in some spots tonight, though weak offshore winds are expected to return. As noted by the prior meteorologist, we'll need to keep an eye open for KHAF tomorrow morning. In these offshore flow set ups winds can sometimes align for the E to NE and increase as they surface toward the ocean. Vicinity of SFO...No major changes as offshore winds set up this morning, generally around 10kt or less. Then this afternoon, onshore winds return lingering into the evening. Tonight, winds may be more light and variable. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Offshore winds are expected for through the morning with onshore winds by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore flow should continue through the early evening, before another round of offshore winds returns late evening and into early Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 258 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail over the coastal waters today and become moderate to fresh on Saturday. These winds hold into the early portion of the week. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 451 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains remains in effect this morning due to moderate offshore winds and very dry conditions. This included the very poor overnight humidity recovery between 13 and 23 percent. The Red Flag Warning is set to expire at 11AM, as winds decrease. Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20% forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing. Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds become onshore, improving RH conditions as well. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  583 FXUS63 KMPX 161108 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds with gusts to 45 mph possible across western and southern MN this morning. - Subfreezing temperatures for southern MN and western WI tonight. - Elevated fire weather concerns this weekend, then temperatures turn back to above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Scattered showers are ongoing early this morning as a trough axis swings through. The showers are expected to end from northwest to southeast during the next few hours as the axis propagates away from the region. Clouds will clear Surface high pressure over the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to build south today. Gusty northwest winds have developed across western MN and will continue to spread southeast this morning. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some gusts to reach 45 mph, but low level lapse rates aren't dry adiabatic due to the lack of strong cold air advection. Therefore, such gusts will be more sporadic with 35-40 mph gusts more common. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and become light and variable this evening as high pressure builds to the central Plains. With the ridge axis overhead, clear skies, and light winds in place this evening, temperatures should drop quickly into the 30s. Frost formation is likely by late evening area wide. During the overnight hours, the high will shift to the southern Plains and return flow will increase, particularly across central and western MN. This should halt additional frost formation, and may keep temperatures from reaching freezing in those areas. Therefore, kept the Freeze Watch going across portions of central and western MN where winds should increase to around 10 kts late tonight. Farther south and east, winds should remain decoupled for much of the night and the likelihood of subfreezing temperatures is higher. Upgraded southern MN and western WI to a Freeze Warning. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro should keep temperatures above 32, but light winds and high RH with temps in the mid 30s should allow frost. Upgraded to a Frost Advisory there. With southwest winds increasing late tonight, temperatures are expected to make a rebound as early as tomorrow. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Breezy conditions with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and RH in the 30s will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, especially in areas that largely missed the soaking rain Thursday. A near repeat for Sunday, although temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s. Next week will feature a ridge across much of the CONUS with troughs on the east and west coasts. Very quiet and mild weather will result and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s each day from Tuesday onward, or 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A weak short wave passing through Wednesday will bring a low chance for rain, with additional chances coming next weekend as the western long wave trough finally begins to approach. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clouds will decrease later in the morning with clear skies later in the day. Gusty northwest winds to 35 kts will decrease in the afternoon and evening, then turn southwest late tonight. KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected to scatter out around midday with clear skies by late this afternoon. Winds will gust 30-35 kts this morning, then become light this evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker- Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka- Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington. WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff  156 FXUS63 KICT 161113 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler air will arrive across the area today while lingering through the weekend with frost/freeze potential for much of the area Sat morning. - Moderating temperatures are expected this week with a chance for showers late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much colder air was arriving over the area early this morning with strong H85 caa underway. Afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in some areas. The highest wind speeds are expected through the morning hours while gradually subsiding as we move through the day as the sfc pressure gradient gradually diminishes. A ridge of high pressure at the sfc is progged to settle over the area tonight bringing light winds under mostly clear conditions. This will result in robust radiational cooling leading to areas of frost tonight into Saturday morning with the first freeze of the season for parts of central/south central KS. The freeze watch was expanded southward to include most of central and parts of south central KS where lows in the upper 20s/around 30 are anticipated. Southerly winds will return to central KS on Saturday allowing temperatures to quickly moderate with highs returning to the lower 60s while another day of upper 50s is anticipated across much of eastern Kansas. A stable and tranquil weather regime is anticipated through early next week as the upper level pattern transitions to a SW mid/upper flow regime early in the week with breezy southerly winds lingering. Seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with above average temperatures persisting through the end of the work week with highs around 80. Some low pops were maintained late in the week as some subtle shortwave troughs ridge over the mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS, but confidence in widespread wetting precipitation remains fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low clouds in the 3-4k ft range were racing southward across northern Kansas and could result in some MVFR ceilings through the morning hours for much of the area. By late morning or early afternoon, this activity is expected to continue racing southward and clearing the area allowing VFR to return. Gusty northwest winds will increase, peaking during the late morning/early afternoon hours before diminishing. Wind gusts may approach 40 mph at times before speeds diminish by mid-afternoon becoming light tonight as high pressure settles over the area. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>051-067. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...MM  290 FXUS63 KLBF 161116 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 616 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Back to back cold mornings Friday and Saturday, when Freeze Warnings and Freeze Watches are in effect, should lead to an end to the growing season for all of west and north central Nebraska. - Dry and warmer conditions will lead to at least some elevated fire concerns on Saturday, favoring areas west of Highway 83. - Warmer and drier conditions return for Sunday and into next week, with highs returning to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Early this morning, gusty north winds were prevalent across the area. This has led to a fairly quick influx of dry air which helped temperatures fall quickly across portions of western Nebraska. By 1am CDT, many locations were already in the 30s. The exception to this was areas beneath an increasing plume of low/mid-level stratus across the eastern Sandhills through north central Nebraska. While this will continue to expand across the area, do anticipate enough breaks for many locations to fall into the 30s with upper 20s further west in the Panhandle where Freeze Warnings are in effect through late morning Friday. Today/Tonight...north to northwest winds will remain blustery through at least daybreak on Friday, with gradual decreases by early afternoon if not midday. Within the post frontal airmass with approaching Canadian high pressure, expect a cooler day with afternoon highs in the lower 50s if not upper 40s for a few select locations. This will occur beneath sunny skies and as alluded to, with weakening winds falling to less than 20 mph by the afternoon and likely to less than 15 mph for most if not all locations by early evening. This will occur as central high pressure settles through the area with return southerly flow redeveloping. This casts some uncertainty regarding low temperatures Friday night/Saturday morning. Though timing of the central high pressure in the area favors near to prior to Midnight versus the early morning hours, the anticipated light winds beneath clear skies should allow for at least a few hours of favorable radiational cooling. Statistical guidance is quite bullish on the coldest morning temperatures of the season thus far, painting expansive 20s and even a few locations making a run at upper teens in our far west. This, following the anticipated cold from Friday morning, should effectively end the growing season in the local area. All non-warned zones from Friday morning have a Freeze Watch in place for Saturday morning. This headline appears on track for now so no changes were made to the inherited products. Should timing favor a quicker departure and thus quicker development of return southwesterly flow in our west, temperatures may need altered with subsequent forecasts so some uncertainty remains. Saturday/Saturday Night...upper ridging upstream will shuffle east towards the Continental Divide by early Saturday. Subsequent breakdown of this ridging should occur through the day Saturday as embedded troughing stalls near the Baja of California. Flow aloft will gradually back to southwesterly though this will occur too late to allow moisture to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest. The result is warmer temperatures from approaching high pressure aloft and downsloping winds within a dry airmass. In fact, some fire weather concerns appear probable for west of Highway 83. While low humidity is likely to be observed, how much wind overlap materializes remains in question. Flow aloft appears fairly weak, particularly at h7, which will likely limit mixing heights as a result. Though h85 flow appears relatively strong through the day, the speed max atthis level should focus over Highway 83 whereas the lowest humidity should be bottled up in the Panhandle. HREF joint probabilities show a high likelihood (80%+) of marginal fire conditions (< 35% RH, > 10 mph sustained winds) but these largely fall off to 50-60% for seeing near-critical (< 20% RH, > 15 mph sustained winds). The one area to watch will be Zones 204/210 and western Zones 206/208. Raw output from the high resolution ARW suggests this is a threat worth monitoring in the coming days. Afternoon highs should range from middle 70s west to low 60s east. Given proximity to the speed max off the surface, believe gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible. The gustier winds should persist into the overnight hours and this will keep overnight lows on the milder side. Though some 30s appear possible for southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle, areas of northern and north central Nebraska should hold into the low to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Quieter conditions are expected as we head into Sunday, with upper ridging expected to amplify across the central CONUS as we head into early next week. In fact, the upper pattern begins to transition towards an omega block pattern, with the central US positioned between a cutoff low just off the coast of the eastern US and a deep upper low over the southwestern US. This leaves the area under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridging through the middle of next week, and lead to high temperatures moderating back into the 70s for all by Tuesday (70s expected Sat/Sun across western NE). Locations across southwest Nebraska will make a run at the lower 80s by midweek. This will also coincide with drier conditions, though fire concerns look to remain low due to surface dewpoints increasing back into the lower 50s. This will keep minimum afternoon humidity elevated in the 30-40% range, along with winds generally remaining below 20 miles per hour each day. In all, this points to a return of pleasant fall weather, with mostly sunny, dry, and mild conditions returning through the middle of next week. By late week, the western US upper low will begin to eject east across the Rockies by late Friday, bringing a return of southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure will begin to eject across the Dakotas by Friday evening, and this drags a cold front into the area sometime Saturday. This looks to bring a return of cooler highs and some threat for precipitation as we head into next weekend, and this will need to be monitored going forward. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Stratus with low-end VFR and MVFR CIGs will persist for terminals near and east of HWY 83 through late this morning. By early this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals and this persists through tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds persist into early afternoon, with widespread gusts of 25 to 35kts continuing. Winds then quickly weaken by late afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight at 5kts or less. Winds then strengthen from the southwest tomorrow morning, at 10 to 15kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ004-022-023- 035-056>058-069-094. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown  898 FXUS63 KLSX 161130 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect Friday night across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois where confidence is highest in widespread temperatures in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A highly amplified trough can be seen in water vapor imagery currently digging equatorward into the Midwest. The cold front associated with this trough and the one responsible for yesterday's rain has cleared the CWA to the southeast, with deepening northwesterly flow ushering in a fall-like air mass. This air mass will bring notably cooler temperatures compared to what we've been experiencing as of late, with a muted diurnal curve today leading to temperatures topping out in the low to mid 50s; some 20-30 degrees cooler than values on Thursday. Dry conditions are expected for most locations today, with the axis of the upper-level trough only producing a 20- 30% chance of light rain for areas east of the Mississippi River as it pivots overhead during the afternoon. Tonight, high pressure at the surface will settle into the Central and Southern Plains; nosing into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As a result, the pressure gradient will slacken and winds become light to calm as skies gradually clear from north to south. This will make for ideal frost conditions across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois, where radiational cooling will allow for widespread lows in the mid-30s - the temperature threshold generally needed for frost development. Where confidence is highest in these conditions occurring, a Frost Advisory is now in effect late Friday night through early Saturday morning. Thanks to the upper-level trough moving further eastward of the region Saturday, low to mid-level temperatures will bounce back by a few degrees C compared to their Friday minimum. Between this and clear skies allowing for abundant insolation, afternoon temperatures will warm to around 60 degrees, which is still about 10 degrees below seasonal normals. There is a low threat (40%) for additional frost across portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Saturday night, and will be dependent on where the aforementioned surface high is relative to the CWA then. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Thanks to consensus among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance, confidence is high in a benign and uneventful pattern through the upcoming workweek. Continuous troughing over the West Coast and ridging to our east-southeast will keep upper-level flow weakly southwesterly through this portion of the period. This supports warm air advection, though subtly given the weakness of the flow. As a result, daily temperatures will only gradually warm through the workweek. Values closer to seasonal normals are at least expected through the first half of the workweek, but how much warmer we climb toward the end of the week is uncertain. The NBM pushes afternoon highs to around 80 degrees Thursday and Friday, though that is roughly 5 degrees warmer than the 75th percentile of ensemble guidance. This is due to the bias- corrected guidance composing the NBM, and this guidance is several degrees warmer than their non-biased counterparts. Given the bias factor applied here may be too warm given our seasonal cooling, confidence is low in the NBM's late-week temperature forecast. Given the weakness of the flow aloft and lack of any notable disturbances in deterministic guidance, confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through this portion of the period. This is supported by nearly all ensemble members showing this stretch being rain-free. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 In the wake of yesterday evening's front, a stratus deck is departing the region to the southeast. However, additional stratus is rotating into the region from the northwest. Early in the period, this stratus is expected to start off roughly 3.5-4kft before gradually lowering through the mid to late morning to MVFR flight restrictions at all local terminals. Dry air moving into the region this evening into the early overnight hours will push this stratus away from the local terminals and return VFR flight conditions to the region. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019- 026-027-034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060- 095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Elmore LONG TERM...Elmore AVIATION...Elmore  198 FXUS61 KBOX 161159 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 759 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. * Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. * Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers this morning followed by a lull in activity for much of the afternoon aside from a few spot showers. Another round of showers with some embedded thunderstorms possible move through between 5-11 pm. Windier and colder Saturday following a strong cold front. High pressure continues to drift off to the east early this morning and showers have starting to make their way into parts of western MA and CT. These will continue to track through the region this morning, spreading from west to east. This is associated with a 1004 mb low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region that will track along the southern Ontario/Quebec and northeast US border as the day goes on. As it does, the low is expected to continue deepening as its associated upper level shortwave trough also deepens, cutting well into the Midwest by this evening. Showers this morning will likely last a few hours at any given location. Winds have already shifted more southerly this morning, which will help kick off the advection of an anomalous moisture plume and warmer air. PWATs up to 1.75" and even approaching 2.0" will creep into southern New England as the low's warm front moves through by the early afternoon. Once this warm front tracks through, the system's warm sector will settle overhead for the afternoon. This will provide a bit of a respite from steady showers ahead of the next expected round of rain, though a few spot showers cannot be completely ruled out. 925 mb temperatures while under this warm sector will increase to the 16-18C range with 850 mb temperatures around 15C as warm air advection moves in full force. Highs will likely reach the upper 60s and low 70s as a result. A southerly LLJ also sets up, with the core of it at 925 mb ranging between 45-50 kt. Amidst some of the model discrepancies, the general agreement is the core of this will be just over the eastern waters in the afternoon, reaching up to 60 kt (though the NAM goes even higher at 65 kt). This same signature is also noted at 850 mb. Model soundings do, however, indicate an inversion at the low to mid levels which would inhibit this jet from fully mixing down. Gusty winds to 30 mph are not out of the question, and some could see 35 mph gusts closer to the eastern coastlines. Cloudy conditions persist through the day as well, given the abundant moisture aloft. Our concern then turns to the next round of rain towards the evening hours, which could include some embedded thunderstorms. Not much has changed in the CAMs for the 5-11 pm timeframe today, as they've continued to show the development of a "fine line" tracking from west to east across the region. High-res guidance still indicates a few hundred J/kg this afternoon and evening ahead of the low's strong cold front, though 0-6 km effective bulk shear is in the 50- 60 kt range with strong jet dynamics. Given this environment, some embedded thunderstorms could develop as this line of showers moves through southern New England. Even with the forcing from the approachingcold front, the limited instability should keep the severe potential for any embedded thunderstorms that may develop quite low. This high shear/low CAPE environment may still produce some instances of sub-severe gusts to 50 mph though, and much of southern New England is under a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today. Western portions of central CT are in a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather today, though also for the risk of severe and damaging winds. Latest CSU ML guidance has much of the northeast under a 5-15% chance for severe winds today as well, so it cannot be entirely ruled out. This will continue to be monitored ahead of and during the event. Some of the high-res guidance also showed a signal for a some post- frontal rain across southeastern New England, though by the time this arrives, the threat for any embedded thunderstorms will have dropped considerably. Event rainfall totals are expected to generally range between 0.3-0.7" across southern New England. Depending on where some embedded thunderstorms/more convective showers set up, some spots could see locally higher totals, especially given the high PWAT environment. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. As the cold front crosses southern New England through Saturday morning, strong cold air advection is left in its wake. 925 mb temperatures fall below 0C by Saturday evening, and PWATs fall below 0.25" once more as colder, drier air sets in. Lows Friday night fall into the 40s and upper 30s (towards the high elevations). Highs Saturday may struggle to reach the low 50s across the interior and lows Saturday night will likely dip below freezing across the region, with the exceptions being areas closest to the coasts and urban areas. Once the gusty NW winds drop off earlier in the overnight period Saturday, we could see some radiational cooling develop as high pressure builds in post-FROPA, enhancing an already relatively cold night for some locations. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with more seasonable through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters towards the midweek period. High pressure continues to build in Sunday and a more seasonably cool airmass moves into the region, and the tighter gradient between the strong exiting low and approaching high pressure slackens. This will allow winds to let up as well, diminishing slightly heading into the second half of the weekend and the start of next week. As high pressure settles overhead as well, temperatures will moderate back to more typical levels for this time of year as highs return to the 50s and 60s into early next week. One thing we will be keeping an eye on, though, is the development of a cutoff low towards the mid-Atlantic/Carolina coastal waters. This feature appears to have detached from the broader upper level trough that was associated with the strong low pressure that is impacting us today. There is some uncertainty with regards to our region seeing any impacts from this cutoff low, especially given the strength of the ridge overhead during this point in the forecast. Even then, at most, it would lead to some scattered showers towards the Cape and Islands at closest and more NE breezes. Much can change between now and this timeframe, but as of now, impacts look minimal to zero. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today into this evening...Moderate confidence. Remaining VFR conditions near the coastal plain early this morning will deteriorate to low end MVFR-IFR conditions over the next few hours and remain at those levels through the afternoon. Otherwise...cluster of widespread showers moves across the region this morning. We then should see a lull in the activity for much of the afternoon with just a spot shower or two. Main concern is between 22z and 02z as a cluster showers and potentially embedded t-storms sweeps across the region. Greatest risk for thunder will be across CT/RI/SE MA...but that is possible across the rest of the region as well. Brief heavy rain may result in localized LIFR conditions. In addition...localized brief strong wind gusts may accompany this cluster of showers even if there is not any lightning. Otherwise...S-SW winds will gust between 20 and 25 knots today and near 30 knots for the Cape/Islands. LLWS will still be an issue this morning and again this evening before wind gusts pick up. Overnight into Saturday...High confidence. Conditions should improve to VFR across most areas northwest of I-95 this evening. Scattered showers will linger well into the overnight hours and even into part of Sat morning across parts of RI/SE MA...which will allow some lower cigs to linger especially across the Cape and Islands into Sat. Meanwhile...the rest of the region will see VFR conditions as drier air works into the region. NW winds gusts will increase to between 20 and 30 knots during the day Sat. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 23z and 02z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern is between 23z and 02z when a cluster of showers with perhaps embedded thunder work across the region. Even if there is not any thunder...brief strong wind gusts are possible with the frontal passage. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday...High confidence. Intensifying low pressure will continue to track near the northern New England/Quebec border today into this evening. Ahead of this low, strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early today. Behind this cold front, NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late tonight into Sat morning in the CAA pattern. Latest guidance has still shown more marginal Gale conditions, so a Gale Watch remains over these areas. Despite marginal conditions, cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way, strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening throughSaturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Hrencecin  128 FXUS64 KSJT 161112 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 612 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rainfall rates have gradually decreased across West Central Texas, with most of the moderate rain decreasing to just at this point. Models show this trend should continue through the early morning hours, likely lingering across the southern counties past sunrise before completely ending by mid to late morning. Flash Flood Watch runs through 12Z and should be able to end it early as the rain continues to wane and the threat ends. Strong surface pressure gradient will continue through the day today and wind gusting over 40 mph remain possible. Boosted wind speeds in the forecast slightly, and will let the Wind Advisory already in effect continue. Much cooler today behind the cold front. Some of the models hold temperatures in the mid/upper 50s so not going to argue with the model blends showing highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area, depending on how long the cloud cover ends up lingering across the area. Wind speeds should decrease after sunset, but may not completely drop off. This will allow readings to drop overnight, even though Sunday morning will likely be the better radiational cooling night. Wet soils may have an effect as well. Still, the coolest readings since the middle of April are possible Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Area of light rain continues to gradually diminish across the southern terminals early this morning. Conditions should improve by mid to late morning as the low clouds lift and dissipate and leave VFR mid and high clouds across the area for the afternoon. The main weather story will be the gusty north to northeast winds, which will gust over 30kts across all terminals this morning and through the afternoon. Wind speeds should begin to diminish after sunset this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 61 40 61 37 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 62 41 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 62 42 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 40 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona59 40 59 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brady 60 41 60 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07  188 FXUS65 KPUB 161114 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 514 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High potential for a widespread hard freeze ending the growing season across the southeast plains tonight through Saturday morning - Warming into the weekend with a weak system bringing some mountain showers Sunday and Monday - Next system will bring increasing winds by mid week and the potential for rain and mountain snows sometime late week or next weekend && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Reinforcing surge of cold dry air will descend through the plains overnight behind a trailing upper trough dropping through the northern and central high plains towards the upper Midwest. Winds will remain elevated across the plains overnight/early this morning as a reinforcing high pressure moves through the region, but it will also bring drier air under a mostly clear skies. Best chance for a hard freeze this morning still looks like Northern El Paso County where probabilities are around 50 percent. Kiowa and southern El Paso county have a 30-50 percent chance of seeing freezing temperatures though readings may not be quite cold enough for long enough to qualify for a growing season ending hard freeze. For the counties along and south of highway 50, odds are less likely as winds may keep the lower levels mixed, but some patchy frost with a brief dip to near freezing as winds decrease towards dawn will be possible early this morning and Frost Advisories still look on target. Across the San Luis Valley where some locations didn't quite make the 3 hours of 28 degrees or colder necessary for a growing season ending hard freeze yesterday, tonight will likely do it under clear skies and falling surface dew points. Otherwise, today will remain cool but sunny with temperatures similar to a degree or two cooler across the plains. The mountains will start to see a slow warm up as ridging aloft moves in out west. Winds will be relatively light, especially towards afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern plains. Another clear cold night expected with another round of freeze warnings likely. Winds will be lighter and the airmass drier, however there will also be a developing lee trough along the lee of the mountains which could kick up some westerly winds towards morning west of I-25 which could offset the potential cooling and freeze potential. Will maintain current set of Freeze Watches for now to let current round of Frost and Freeze highlights play out. It is possible that eastern Fremont and Huerfano counties could stay too mixed for a hard freeze tonight depending on the timing of the lee trough development. Will let later shifts and another suite of model runs come in before making upgrade decisions, but probability is high for an upgrade to Freeze Warnings for locations along and east of I-25. -KT && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warmer conditions return over the weekend with ridging aloft transitioning to southwest flow ahead of a filling upper low entering southern CA and western AZ on Sunday. Saturday remains dry across southern CO but some moisture advects in for Sunday and Monday as this weakening upper level disturbance gradually lifts out across CO. Some isolated showers will be possible, mainly for the mountain areas with some spotty light rainfall possible. Snow levels will remain above 10000 feet during the day time hours when showers will be most prevalent. The next upper trough moves into the west coast Tuesday and Wednesday. This will increase southwest flow over CO bringing breezy and warm conditions with increasing showers across the Continental Divide. Best chances for showers will be across the eastern San Juans due to orographically favored southwest flow, however this will be warm system with snow levels remaining high. Upper low will translate through the western U.S. towards CO into late week, though details on timing, track and strength are highly variable at this point. Trend will be towards unsettled weather and a cool down perhaps next weekend as the system crosses the Rockies. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 KCOS will have a some patchy MVFR clouds this morning, with things clearing up by about 15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected at all three TAF sites KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071-084- 085-095-096. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ083-086>089- 093-094-097>099. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  934 FXUS64 KLCH 161130 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas is in effect 11 AM today to 1 AM Sat. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch 9 AM to 9 PM Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon. - Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Looking at RAP 500 mb analysis and satellite imagery, it's no secret where the cold front is: Stretching from southwest to northeast from Austin, TX to Memphis, TN. Winds ahead of the main frontal boundary are beginning to turn northerly. This influence is nearing the Northwest LA line and will soon spread low magnitude north winds into our northwest zones. This will start shaping up around sunrise. By mid-morning we should all feel a slight north breeze. The primary boundary then sweeps through swiftly, arriving to the Lakes Region early morning and sweeping offshore by noon. The initial wind gusts associated with its passage will abate slightly before the faucet cranks wide open and winds increase markedly this afternoon. Unlike some frontal passages where we see a brief period of strong north winds, these winds are set to increase and stick around through much of the weekend! All thanks to enhancement between the departing upper trof and attendant postfrontal high. Areas from coastal Texas across to coastal Louisiana and northeast into cenLA will see the longest duration of the highest speeds and thus are included in a wind advisory from 1 PM today through Saturday around noon. Winds 20 to 25 with gusts to 35 MPH can be expected. Winds will start slacking off Saturday afternoon as the upper high moves into the east central US, shutting off the northwest flow. With northerly winds come much cooler conditions! Highs today will be reflected by your location relative to the front. Interior Texas will only warm into the 70s when the cooler air arrives, whereas cenLA and southward should warm into the 80s before it cools off. Saturday, temps will struggle to hit the lower 70s. And with breezy conditions it'll feel cooler out. As for lows, mid 50s Saturday morning and upper 40s Sunday. How's that for a taste of fall! These windy and dry conditions are also conducive for rapidly growing wildfires. Be it a flicked cigarette butt or wind-induced powerline spark, small flames could become an uncontrollable problem SWIFTLY under these conditions. Whether you are under a burn ban or not, DO NOT BURN. Look to your local officials for best burn ban information and if you see a fire/smoke, say something! Take care out there and enjoy this cool off! 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 With some lingering moisture yet to be dried up post frontal passage, there are a few non TAF terminals this morning that are seeing patchy fog. This will dissipate later this morning after sunrise, with whatever lingering getting blown away as northerly winds increase and become gusty. Sustained winds up to 25 kts with higher gusts will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Onshore winds will persist through the pre-dawn hours. Winds will start turning offshore after sunrise in response to a nearing strong cold front set to move into coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase resulting in rapid onsethazardous sea conditions. Small Craft advisory is in effect this morning until 7 PM when it transitions to a Gale Warning for sustained winds 25 to 35 knots, gusts to 40 knots and 7 to 11 foot seas. This hazardous period will continue until midday saturday when winds begin to relax. Winds will diminish slowly Saturday evening but waves will remain very elevated into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Winds will begin turning north ahead of the approaching cold front in the coming predawn hours. Much stronger north winds will then spread southeast through the morning, reaching the coastline by roughly 10 AM and the Lower Atchafalaya by noon. Winds will then increase in the afternoon and will remain strong overnight into Saturday morning. Much cooler conditions will arrive today with dry air and lower RH lagging behind. Areas within the red flag warning today will see RH minimums 30 to 35 percent overlapping with north winds 10 to 20 MPH and gusts to 30 MPH. There is a fire weather watch area wide Saturday to account for RH minimums 25 to 30 percent combining with north-northeast winds 10 to 20 and gusts to 30 MPH. Winds will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...87  855 FXUS64 KOHX 161128 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A breezy cold front arrives this morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only very low rain chances with today's frontal passage and none hereafter, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of the cold front to our doorstep. Even though the cold front is mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some showers on the KY/TN state line. Not looking at any meaningful QPF with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible. Highs tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to the mid 70s in the SE. The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s. So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll be needing them this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning. After the cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by mid week. Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week. The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front is moving through Middle Tennessee this morning. This will bring a distinct NW wind shift with gusts 20-25 kts as well as MVFR cigs. FROPA is currently occuring at CKV. BNA and MQY timing is 1230-1300z. MVFR cigs are forecast to stick around through the early to mid afternoon with skies scattering out to VFR for the late afternoon and evening. Additional MVFR cigs are possible overnight as more wrap-around clouds moves into the area. Winds will become N tomorrow morning with gusts 15-20 kts && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 46 61 40 / 20 10 0 0 Clarksville 60 43 61 37 / 20 10 0 0 Crossville 71 41 54 33 / 20 20 0 0 Columbia 67 45 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 70 44 56 37 / 30 20 0 0 Jamestown 70 42 54 35 / 30 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 70 45 61 36 / 20 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 69 46 62 37 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 62 45 60 39 / 20 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Sizemore  911 FXUS64 KTSA 161130 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gusty north winds will occur behind a cold front tonight into Friday. An advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures get cool enough Friday and Saturday nights to support potential frost conditions across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has now cleared the forecast area. A tight gradient behind the front will support gusty north winds tonight into Friday. The latest short-term guidance indicates advisory-level gusts are possible, especially on the ridge tops in the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. A wind advisory has been issued from 09Z tonight to 18Z Friday for gusts reaching 45 and perhaps topping 50 mph locally. The Oklahoma Mesonet rainfall map shows that far southeast Oklahoma has picked up very little if any rain with this recent event. By afternoon, this area will see humidities dropping into the 30 to 40 percent range while north winds remain gusty. With fuels remaining fairly dry and favorable, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this area. A much cooler day is in store for Friday, with afternoon high temps in the 50s to mid 60s well below average for this time of year. Lingering low cloud cover, gusty north winds and maybe some patchy drizzle will lead to a pretty raw day over the Ozarks. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lingering low clouds over the Ozarks Friday night are expected to hold low temps up around 40 degrees and will prevent frost conditions from developing. However, to the west of the expected low cloud shield across far NE OK near the KS border, low temps in the mid 30s are expected to support frost development. A frost advisory will be needed with the next forecast update if this trend continues. Clouds are not expected to be a factor by Saturday night, and with the surface ridge either close by or overhead, conditions may be favorable in more areas for frost development. A warming trend will commence over the weekend with ridging aloft and at the surface maintaining quiet weather. This warming trend will continue sharply upward as we head into next week, with 80 degree highs returning Wednesday. An upper trough is expected to become established over the western CONUS with downstream ridging over the Plains. Dry weather is expected to persist until the upper trough starts its trek toward the Plains. The latest ensemble data suggests this may not happen until the end of next week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, although ceilings around 4k feet will be common at most sites from late morning until around sunset. North winds will gust near 30 knots at times today before gradually diminishing this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 39 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 43 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 43 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 58 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 58 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 57 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 57 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 39 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-376. AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05  836 FXUS65 KCYS 161128 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A high wind watch was issued for the wind prone areas Saturday for gusts potentially up to 60 mph. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There are a few clouds over the Nebraska Panhandle that prevented temperatures from plummeting over night compared to the regions along and west of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming. It's a little uncertain if there is enough time left for the Panhandle to cool down enough overnight to justify the freeze warning but that region was left in just in case. Otherwise almost all of Southeast Wyoming minus Goshen County is 30 degrees or below already at 2am. With the snow pack being "fresh" but relatively thin it was a challenge to determine how low to drop the temperatures west of the I-25 corridor. A blend of HRRR, NBM, and Canadian was used for temperatures west of I25 and a blend of HRRR and NBM was used for areas east of I-25 and into the Panhandle. Looking at the ensembles GEFS was the highest for the overnight temperature at KLAR at 25 degrees and the Canadian Ensemble was the lowest at 16 degrees but the canadian does have a history of capturing those colder events the best. The Euro ENS was in the middle at around 19F so the overall overnight temperature for Laramie stayed around there. This afternoon the upper level ridging will help advect in some warmer air to help rebound the afternoon temperatures into the 50's for a nice seasonable day in our forecast area. The hourly trend for temperatures is probably the hardest part to try to forecast correctly since half the forecast area had a slight snowpack to help really cool things down overnight and the over half is still relatively bare ground since almost all the precipitation came down as rain 24-36 hours ago. But otherwise this ridge will keep the skies relatively clear and temperatures relatively seasonable as the cold air moves off into the east. Tonight into Saturday morning things get a little more interesting as an area of high pressure starts to briefly develop over the Northwest corner of Colorado. This bubble of high pressure looks to tighten our pressure gradient across Southeast Wyoming to give us another taste of a Wyoming winter. **enter GOT meme of Ned Stark here** A high wind watch was issued for I-80 corridor near Arlington and I-25 Bordeaux at 6am (12z) through 7pm (01z) for wind gusts up to 60 mph. With this being a primarily a gradient driven event its kind of hard to gauge the timing however the Craig to Casper 850mb gradient exceeds 50m around 12z and drops below 50m around 18z. But there are some blips of increased intensity at the 700mb level past 18z so the watch ends at 01z around the time the sun goes down and the 700mb jets really drops off. Also, without the definitive support of the 700mb jet it also makes it a little difficult to forecast definitive high wind intensity but this is also where pattern recognition from local forecasters really kicks in as opposed to forecasters sitting in office on the east coast forecasting at a national level. There's a higher level of confidence in the winds being between 50 and 60 mph with this event in our wind prones then generally saying the winds will definitely exceed 58 mph as implied with a High wind warning. Our in-house wind model also depicts momentary blips of high wind speeds giving more confidence into the 50 to 60 mph scenario for Saturday morning and afternoon thus supporting a watch issuance than a warning. Winds were also increased from the NBM as they were a little low but the NBM did at least capture a slight uptick inthe winds compared to surrounding area. Finally, the last piece of evidence in the elevated winds forecast came from the Omega fields of the Global models. Looking at this field there is a slight mountain wave feature with the rising and sinking motion of the atmosphere. While its not the strongest sinking and rising motion typically seen in our winter high wind events, the signal was still there and even weak mountain waves have been known to produce wind gusts strong enough to produce winds exceeding 55mph. Temperatures will drop once again Saturday night but with the 700mb temps staying around 6c surface temperatures should stay around the mid 30's and 40's overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are going to be relatively light throughout the day. Winds are expected to gust starting late tonight as the pressure gradient increases through 18z Saturday. Even though the models don't depict, there may be some LLWS around 1500-2000ft near KLAR as the winds increase at the surface tonight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-102- 104>111-113-115>119. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WYZ106-110. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...MM  968 FXUS65 KRIW 161130 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mostly sunny and cool autumn day today, with highs in the 50s. - A warming trend will return for the upcoming weekend, with highs reaching the upper 50s west of the Divide, and the 60s to lower 70s for central Wyoming. - Rain chances start to move back into southwest Wyoming for the latter half of the week, but current chances remain low for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature this weekend, deflecting weather systems into southern Canada. Temperatures today will recover back into the 50s after starting in the 20s across the state. The ridge will bring even warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs west of the divide around 60 degrees, while areas across central WY reach well into the 60s. Gusty southwest winds reaching 30 mph will sweep from Rock Springs northeast across Casper into northeast Wyoming. These warmer winds will bring even warmer temperatures across Johnson County Saturday, with highs well into the 70s. A weak cold front is dragged southward late Saturday from a weather system crossing southern Canada. This will bring light north winds back into central WY, bringing high temps back down into the 50s for Sunday. The next weather impact into next week depends on placement of the trough dropping down the West Coast. Moisture wrapping around the bottom of the trough may feed into southwest WY for the latter half of the week, bringing a chance for showers. Currently models have been leaning away from any significant rainfall, and have been delaying the initial arrival of the moisture farther into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with clear skies. Morning satellite imagery shows only small amounts of light fog around KBPI/KPNA, which will not impact those airports before sunrise. Most sites will see light south winds around 5kts today. Areas from near KRKS to KCPR to KBYG will see breezy southwest winds this afternoon, with a few gusts 20 to 25kts. Winds around KCPR will remain elevated and gust through the night tonight. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ005-006-010- 011-016>020-028>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Straub  109 FXUS64 KMRX 161132 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 732 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain chances return this afternoon into tonight, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. - Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The ridge and high pressure over the Southeast break down as a deep trough moves into the Midwest and then into the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. The best chance for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, showers, if any, will be isolated. Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. A changeover to light snow in the late night/early morning hours will be possible on the highest mountain peaks with little to no accumulation expected. This weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the 50s and lower 60s Saturday. Saturday will be breezy as well with gusts up to 25 mph likely at times. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and the higher elevations. Early and mid next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Front is pushing its way into Middle TN - it is on track to bring light rain to Knox and Tri-Cities metros and other northern locations. Gusty winds post front along with MVFR CIGs likely at TYS and TRI. CHA more likely to remain VFR and dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 50 62 43 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 49 59 40 / 50 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 48 58 40 / 20 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 46 55 34 / 70 70 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  160 FXUS65 KBOU 161133 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 533 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight. - Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent obs show temperatures starting to drop over parts of the eastern plains, and most of the cloud cover from earlier today has cleared out. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am Friday for the eastern plains & I-25 corridor, where lows tonight are expected to drop into the upper 20s-low 30s. Winds should stay light across the area overnight, with some breezier conditions (gusts of about 15- 20mph) in the northeasternmost plains. Cooler temperatures persist Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the plains & I-25 corridor. Downsloping winds should keep lows tomorrow night above freezing for most of the foothills, while the northern and easternmost plains should again see lows in the upper 20s-low 30s. Despite the good model agreement in below freezing temperatures across the plains Friday night, we have decided to hold off for now on issuing any frost or freeze products until we know tonight's low temperatures. Should a killing freeze hit tonight (low temps <= 28F), we would not issue another product; however, if lows don't quite reach that 28 degrees or less threshold, we may be looking at another frost/freeze product. Temperatures warm back up on Saturday as a ridge moves into the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s on Saturday as the ridge axis moves across the state, with southwest flow dominating on the upstream side of the ridge by Sunday, keeping temps on the warmer side through the first half of next week and pulling in some mid-level moisture. While conditions should stay dry over the plains and urban corridor, we can't rule out a few afternoon rain/snow showers over the higher terrain Sunday through Wednesday. Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions bring in our next trough Thursday or Friday. This far out, though, the timing of this system is highly uncertain, as is the location of the cutoff low/trough axis. We'll see how the models trend and see if there's any better agreement from run to run and across models as we get closer to the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/... Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will stay light throughout the day today and will have an easterly component from the late morning through the afternoon. Tonight, drainage winds will develop and persist throughout the night. On Saturday, winds will turn to the southeast for the majority of the day. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...Danielson