254 FXUS62 KKEY 160911 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 511 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence is increasing for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week. - A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains very high regarding rain chances for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite imagery from GOES East indicates the Florida Keys remains under an area of deep layer moisture this morning. GOES East Total Precipitable Water products estimated around 2 inches of PWAT across the Keys and South Florida. Surface dew points in the upper 70s across the Keys highlights how this feels to the average person, it is warm and muggy. Breezes have been gentle to moderate along the reef with occasional fresh gusts. Shower coverage has remained isolated to scattered given the amount of moisture and minimal inhibition. Stray thunderstorms are possible, but the absence of a synoptic scale source of lift means the convective bursts have been short lived. Today, expect muggy conditions to continue across the Keys. Conditions are on track to change tonight. The broad high pressure system that maintained the gentle to moderate breezes is forecast to move east towards the Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front seen developing over the southern Plains will sweep southeast towards the Gulf. The mid latitude system associated with the front will force the high further away from the Keys and weaken it, allowing breezes to slacken to light to gentle across our waters tonight. While this occurs, the amount of moisture will persist over the Keys. Shower coverage is expected to increase while winds slacken. The main story for the forecast continues to be the aforementioned cold front. Models still show the frontal boundary nearing the Outer Gulf waters late Saturday night. There is a high likelihood of considerable shower coverage and a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night, so make sure to keep an eye on the radar. && .MARINE... Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate breezes along the reef this morning are on track to slacken as the Atlantic high weakens. Guidance suggests a strong cold front will advance into the Gulf late tonight and stall near the Keys this weekend. Breezes are on track to freshen alongside an increase in shower coverage. Exact details about where the front stalls and the duration of peak winds remains uncertain. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for some or all of our waters once the front nears the Keys. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for both EYW and MTH. Sub VFR conditions are possible near isolated showers. Surface winds are on track to decrease late in the day, and VCSH conditions become more likely near the late afternoon. Thunderstorm chances cannot be ruled out while shower coverage increases. MVFR conditions become more likely after sunset, but confidence in timing the showers remains low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 79 87 77 / 30 60 60 90 Marathon 88 80 86 78 / 30 50 50 80 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  752 FXUS66 KMFR 160922 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 222 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds and low humidities this morning over the ridges and very warm temperatures and very dry conditions this afternoon will bring elevated fire weather conditions today. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. && .DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge remains over the area today. This will bring continued very warm temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal across inland areas. Coastal areas will trend cooler compared to yesterday though with a light onshore/marine influence. Of concern today will be elevated fire weather conditions due to to very warm, very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty winds (mainly ridges and east side). Very dry conditions along with breezy to gusty easterly winds are occuring over the ridges/upper slopes this morning. These winds will gradually diminish west of the Cascades late this morning and early this afternoon. East to southeast winds will linger into early this afternoon across the southern Oregon Cascades. Then, east of the Cascades, gusty southerly winds will develop this afternoon. Meanwhile, low afternoon humidities are expected across inland areas with single digit RHs possible, mainly for areas east of the Cascades and in Northern California. These conditions today bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. On Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will bring low clouds into northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures will trend near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere, will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds (with gusts 15 to 25 mph) Saturday late afternoon/early evening. These winds are likely to be highest along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Then, on Sunday, models continue to show dry and mild conditions with areas of morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. There is a low chance (10-15%) for light rain in Coos and northwest Douglas County Saturday morning. The forecast remains on track for Sunday night into early next week. A low pressure system with a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward off the coast on Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are around 25-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west, with highest chances along the coast. Lower rain chances (10-25%) exist east of the Cascades. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. && .AVIATION...16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period. The exception will be over the marine waters and possibly along the coast where LIFR ceilings in marine stratus are possible. Confidence is higher for the marine waters as offshore flow could keep this layer just offshore tonight. There could be a brief period of LIFR conditions mainly north of Cape Blanco late tonight into Friday morning. Additionally, with gusty southeast winds prevailing over the higher terrain tonight, low level wind shear will remain a concern for the Medford terminal, lasting until about 15Z as another strong inversion develops and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, October 16, 2026...Sub- advisory north winds and seas dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells will persist through at least Friday. North winds increase and a new swell arrives around Saturday, building seas higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  123 FXUS62 KTAE 160930 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 530 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again this morning across much of the area. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 30-40kts for Saturday. A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 continue today, then turning sharply cooler this weekend following Friday's cold front resulting in highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows in the 50s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today will start out similarly to yesterday. Patchy to areas of fog during the early morning hours through daybreak can be expected. Fog may be dense at times, which could result in a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. Light westerly winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Later tonight, a strong cold front will approach the region. Winds will quickly shift from the northwest to northerly and increase to 20-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Florida Panhandle through the day Saturday. Due to the ongoing clean-up efforts following Hurricane Isaias, the Wind Advisory also extends inland for our Central Time Zone counties into SE Alabama for precautionary reasons to emphasize the elevated wind threat that may impact weakened structures and trees. Temperatures will noticeably change with Saturday's highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Precipitation is not expected with the cold front; however there is a slight chance for showers in the extreme southeast Big Bend Friday night into Saturday, prior to the front's arrival. The next system that we will need to monitor during the short term is the potential for a coastal low developing off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid- Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The overall upper level trough associated with Friday's cold front will remain over the region through the weekend. This will keep the cool temperatures and dry air for the next few days. Highs will slowly warm into the upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the period, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Patchy fog is developing over portions of the area and have kept mention of MVFR vsbys in the TAFs this morning. Today will mainly be VFR with light southwest winds. A cold front will blast through the area tonight with winds quickly clocking around to the northwest and becoming gusty with speeds 15G25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue for today through this afternoon. Tonight, a strong cold front will push through the waters, sharply turning our winds northerly and increasing to Gales. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning with gusty winds up to 40 kts and seas will sharply rise to 5-8 feet, and up to 10 feet in our offshore waters by Saturday. The winds and seas will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDTFri Oct 16 2026 High dispersions for districts north of I-10 this afternoon with transport winds around 10-15 mph out of the west. Later tonight, a strong cold front will rush in. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly, and increasing to around 20-25 mph overnight through the day Saturday with gusts approaching 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for early Saturday morning in our Central Time Zone districts through the early evening hours. There is a slight chance for light showers ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday morning. Healthy/moderate dispersions are forecast for Saturday afternoon with a few pockets in the Big Bend region of high dispersions. MinRH values following the frontal passage will fall into the mid to upper 30%s for the afternoon hours, yet remain above critical. Recent soil moisture contents should keep the region out of critical fire weather concerns; however we will be monitoring the wind and gusts as fuels could start drying out through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Our rivers that are in Action stage are continuing on a downward trend. Little to no rain expected for the next several days. No further flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 62 72 53 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 86 59 72 55 / 0 20 0 0 Dothan 86 54 70 50 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 88 56 71 50 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 88 61 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 89 66 75 55 / 10 10 10 0 Apalachicola 84 64 72 57 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery  860 FXUS65 KCYS 160908 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 308 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A high wind watch was issued for the wind prone areas Saturday for gusts potentially up to 60 mph. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 There are a few clouds over the Nebraska Panhandle that prevented temperatures from plummeting over night compared to the regions along and west of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming. It's a little uncertain if there is enough time left for the Panhandle to cool down enough overnight to justify the freeze warning but that region was left in just in case. Otherwise almost all of Southeast Wyoming minus Goshen County is 30 degrees or below already at 2am. With the snow pack being "fresh" but relatively thin it was a challenge to determine how low to drop the temperatures west of the I-25 corridor. A blend of HRRR, NBM, and Canadian was used for temperatures west of I25 and a blend of HRRR and NBM was used for areas east of I-25 and into the Panhandle. Looking at the ensembles GEFS was the highest for the overnight temperature at KLAR at 25 degrees and the Canadian Ensemble was the lowest at 16 degrees but the canadian does have a history of capturing those colder events the best. The Euro ENS was in the middle at around 19F so the overall overnight temperature for Laramie stayed around there. This afternoon the upper level ridging will help advect in some warmer air to help rebound the afternoon temperatures into the 50's for a nice seasonable day in our forecast area. The hourly trend for temperatures is probably the hardest part to try to forecast correctly since half the forecast area had a slight snowpack to help really cool things down overnight and the over half is still relatively bare ground since almost all the precipitation came down as rain 24-36 hours ago. But otherwise this ridge will keep the skies relatively clear and temperatures relatively seasonable as the cold air moves off into the east. Tonight into Saturday morning things get a little more interesting as an area of high pressure starts to briefly develop over the Northwest corner of Colorado. This bubble of high pressure looks to tighten our pressure gradient across Southeast Wyoming to give us another taste of a Wyoming winter. **enter GOT meme of Ned Stark here** A high wind watch was issued for I-80 corridor near Arlington and I-25 Bordeaux at 6am (12z) through 7pm (01z) for wind gusts up to 60 mph. With this being a primarily a gradient driven event its kind of hard to gauge the timing however the Craig to Casper 850mb gradient exceeds 50m around 12z and drops below 50m around 18z. But there are some blips of increased intensity at the 700mb level past 18z so the watch ends at 01z around the time the sun goes down and the 700mb jets really drops off. Also, without the definitive support of the 700mb jet it also makes it a little difficult to forecast definitive high wind intensity but this is also where pattern recognition from local forecasters really kicks in as opposed to forecasters sitting in office on the east coast forecasting at a national level. There's a higher level of confidence in the winds being between 50 and 60 mph with this event in our wind prones then generally saying the winds will definitely exceed 58 mph as implied with a High wind warning. Our in-house wind model also depicts momentary blips of high wind speeds giving more confidence into the 50 to 60 mph scenario for Saturday morning and afternoon thus supporting a watch issuance than a warning. Winds were also increased from the NBM as they were a little low but the NBM did at least capture a slight uptick inthe winds compared to surrounding area. Finally, the last piece of evidence in the elevated winds forecast came from the Omega fields of the Global models. Looking at this field there is a slight mountain wave feature with the rising and sinking motion of the atmosphere. While its not the strongest sinking and rising motion typically seen in our winter high wind events, the signal was still there and even weak mountain waves have been known to produce wind gusts strong enough to produce winds exceeding 55mph. Temperatures will drop once again Saturday night but with the 700mb temps staying around 6c surface temperatures should stay around the mid 30's and 40's overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals for the duration of this TAF period. There is a slight chance that FZFG may develop overnight at KLAR, however confidence is low and kept any mention out of the TAF for this forecast issuance. Breezy northerly winds at KCYS and KSNY may continue for several more hours before subsiding to less than 10 knots overnight. Expect these lighter winds to continue into and through Friday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-102- 104>111-113-115>119. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WYZ106-110. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  932 FXUS61 KAKQ 160929 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 529 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Gale Warnings have been issued for most of the local waters with Gale Watches for the upper rivers. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly. An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details. Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area. For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highestSE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, a cold front is situated to the south of the local area, with widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs in its wake. CIGs will continue to deteriorate early this morning, with LIFR possible at RIC, ORF, and PHF as we approach ~10-13z. In addition, light rain showers are possible across far northern portions of the area early this morning, with the highest chances at SBY. Light rain at SBY will likely keep CIGs from dropping to IFR until closer to sunrise. The cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front later this morning, leading to an increasing S-SW wind and a rapid improvement in flight conditions back to VFR ~14-16z. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the remainder of the forecast period, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) chances this evening into tonight. S-SW winds may be gusty at times later this morning into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later tonight through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially in the east. && .MARINE... As of 525 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - SW winds increase today but should largely remain sub-SCA through this afternoon. - A strong cold front crosses the local waters tonight, bringing SCA conditions. SCAs are in effect for this surge. A brief period of gusts up to 35 kt is possible immediately behind the front. - Gale conditions are expectedfrom Saturday morning through at least Sunday night with the potential for Gale conditions lingering well into next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for most of the local waters with Gale Watches in effect for the upper rivers. - Widespread coastal flooding is possible next week with the potential for several days of flooding beginning Sunday and continuing into at least mid-week. Winds this morning have turned to the S/SE as a warm front lifts north across the local waters. Light S winds early this morning become SW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this morning through this afternoon. While most guidance keeps winds sub- SCA, some guidance shows portions of the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters potentially reaching low-end SCA conditions by late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have SCAs starting at 7 PM for these locations. Elsewhere, SCAs start at 10 PM this evening to account for N winds behind a strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving into northern New England. Will note that given the strength of the front (pressure rises of around 5 mb in 6 hours), winds may abruptly become N and gust to 35 kt for a couple of hours. However, given the short duration of this surge and generally low confidence in this surge, think SMWs are a better way to handle the surge. The stronger CAA lags behind the front as a strong area of high pressure (~1038 mb) builds into the southern Plains. As the high gradually gets closer to the region, the pressure gradient tightens with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt Sat morning. The 00z model guidance (GFS/EURO/CMC) is in greater agreement that a coastal low will likely form along this front by late Sat/Sat night as a piece of vorticity becomes cutoff across the region. If a cutoff low does form aloft, the surface low underneath will likely struggle to move much through mid-late week next week given weak flow aloft underneath a large, broad upper level ridge. As such, models show this coastal low meandering through mid-late week next week (some even longer). If this occurs, the local waters would remain under a tight pressure gradient between the coastal low off the Southeast coast and strong high pressure building into interior New England. As such, a prolonged period of NE Gale conditions (winds initially become NE Sun morning) could persist well into next week with the best chance across the southern coastal waters. Elevated winds, seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding are all possible. For now, have issued Gale Warnings for all of the local waters except the upper rivers beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun night. However, extensions of the Gale Warnings are likely (especially across the southern waters) into midweek. For now, have limited the Gale Warning to six forecast periods (per collaboration with neighboring offices) and will likely keep extending by one or two forecast periods at a time (if confidence allows) with each major forecast update. Additionally, have Gale Watches for the upper rivers from Sat evening through Sat night given lower confidence and a later time of arrival for the potential Gale conditions. Confidence is lower in the wave/sea forecast than the winds. However, currently have seas building to 8-12 ft north and 9-13 ft south (12-15+ ft offshore) by Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, waves build to 4-8 ft across the Ches Bay (highest across the lower Ches Bay). Will note that if a period of prolonged NE winds at Gale conditions does develop and persist for several days, seas could be higher than currently forecast. Given the building seas, High Surf Advisories will likely be needed along at least the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach and potentially across the Eastern Shore as well. However, confidence in the start time for 8+ ft nearshore waves is low before Sat night (fourth period). As such, have opted to hold off on High Surf Advisories for this update. COASTAL FLOODING... Given the prolonged period of strong NE winds next week, widespread coastal flooding is possible. Tidal anomalies begin to increase Saturday with mainly nuisance flooding possible along the lower Ches Bay. By Sunday, winds become NE, resulting in the potential for widespread minor flooding with localized moderate flooding possible at a few locations. The current tidal forecast only goes through Monday, however, widespread minor to moderate flooding is possible Monday and will continue to be possible into at least the middle of next week. Will note that moderate to major flooding is possible, particularly if NE winds trend strong and/or look to linger several days. Coastal communities should be aware of the potential for multiple days of coastal flooding with each high tide next week and stay tuned as the forecast gets refined and details get ironed out. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...RMM CLIMATE...LKB  274 FXUS65 KFGZ 160934 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 234 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue today. Saturday remains cool with less wind. A series of storm systems will impact the region starting Saturday night and continuing through most of next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times along with cool temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure has developed over the Great Basin, with a weak low cutting off near the northern Baja coast. This has created strong easterly pressure gradients, and very gusty east to northeast winds in the favored higher terrain and downslope regions. Some of the strongest winds of the event are expected a bit later this morning through early afternoon in these areas, including the Flagstaff region and eventually the Little Colorado River Valley where gusts of 40-55 mph are expected. Gradients will slowly weaken later tonight into Saturday morning, though there will still be gusty winds at times through at least mid day Saturday. By Saturday evening through Monday, the low off the Baja is forecast to weaken and move slowly northeastward, allowing for some moisture to the south to get pulled in toward our area. There will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms at times through this period, especially over higher terrain. Rainfall totals through Monday look light for most areas, with some localized 0.50" amounts in heavier showers. Tuesday through Thursday - a deeper low pressure system is forecast to develop off the California coast by Tuesday and then slowly move eastward across our region through the end of the week. The result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms at times through the period. Some deeper moisture could be drawn into the system toward Wednesday and Thursday. The latest NBM probabilities of 0.50" or greater rainfall from Wed AM to Fri AM are 50-70% along the higher terrain upslope regions, with 1.00" probabilities in the 30-50% range. Cooler temperatures and gusty south/southwest winds are also expected as this system moves in. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z...VFR conditions expected. North through east winds forecast through the period, generally between 15-25 kts, with localized gusty winds near 40-50 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/06Z through Monday 19/06Z...Winds will remain elevated out of the east through 10Z Saturday, before becoming light/variable through the end of the period. VFR conditions expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through this afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along/southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish tonight, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 15-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Sunday through Tuesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, with chances increasing and spreading to most of northern Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  597 FXUS63 KIWX 160943 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 543 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning much cooler and windy for today with lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been hoisted as a result. - Chances for frost are best on Saturday night, however some frost cannot be ruled out tonight. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. Additionally, dry weather looks to persist through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a mid level trough digs across the Central US, an upper low gets shoved northeastward pushing a surface low into southeast Canada/Northeast US. At the same time, a 1040 mb surface high slides southeastward into the Central CONUS. The presence of this strong surface high often indicates the arrival of a cooler airmass and that is the case this time. Given our departure of above normal temperatures and the arrival of this cool airmass, we'll have some hazards to contend with today and this weekend. First, yesterday's cold front shifts eastward and the vigorous vort max associated with the mid level trough dives through Lk MI late this afternoon into this evening. Given the warm lake and the 850 mb temps dipping to around or below 0C, lake enhancement is expected to cause rain. A surface trough is expected to swing through the southeast area of Lk MI around 18z with ample low level moisture, low level wind convergence, and building lake enhanced instability. Given the movement of this trough and swiveling trajectories from northwest to north, the area with the best chance to see "higher" QPF is southern Berrien into LaPorte where 0.25 to 0.5" is forecast, tapering off the farther away from the lake you are. The heaviest of the rain appears to get into Berrien county midday (15 or 16z) and continues swiveling southward through the afternoon and into the evening. The other hazard is wind gusts, which look to get underway along lk MI- adjacent locations around 19 or 20z before pulling away around 3z. Given the surface trough, there could be some isentropic downglide enough to work an isolated 45 kt gust down to the surface. Otherwise, it appears that frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible during that time as low level lapse rates become conducive. The strongest of the gusts are adjacent to the lake, tapering off the farther away you get. This is why the wind advisory was hoisted for Lk MI- adjacent locales. The mention of the cold air also brings to mind the chance for frost. Especially with overnight lows dropping into the 30s from from tonight/Sat AM to Sunday night/Mon AM and potentially again Tue AM. The main issue with Friday night/Sat AM is the gradient which could keep winds strong enough to eliminate formation of frost. A lesser possibility is lake clouds hang on, but would probably lean towards subsidence on the eastern side of the lake clouds removing them. Clouds appear to already be dissipating on the NAM by around 6 to 9z for maybe all of our counties (lowest confidence on LaPorte to White county line). This would give areas along or about IN-15 north of US-24 on into MI the best chance to see frost tonight. Surface high pressure continues to poke into the area Saturday morning with the stronger gradient lurking to our north. So, cloud cover appears less of factor. It's often that as return flow begins to occur that we get our best frost chances as winds slacken, but the boundary layer is able to get back to what it was the previous night or potentially colder. So, Saturday night has the best chance for frost. There is also the possibility of a freeze primarily along and south of US-24 Sun AM with a couple hours of temps right around there then. Surface high pressure then becomes stagnant across the eastern CONUS as blocking builds across the Atlantic. The NAO/AO both drop negative during this time. The upper jet also retreats back up into Canada. A slow moving trough moves into the western CONUS, but takes its time arriving into the area potentially continuing to provide dry weather into next weekend. Temperatures trend warmer with highs returning to the 70s during the next work week and lows warming slowly through the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Post-frontal cold advection will keep mainly MVFR cigs and gusty west-northwest winds going today. A digging upper level trough and associated secondary low level trough sink south through the area this afternoon bringing increasing chances for showers and vis restrictions, particularly at KSBN where there will be lake enhancement. This transitions to pure lake effect this evening at KSBN with additional shower chances and high MVFR cigs. Winds remain gusty and veer more northerly otherwise later this afternoon and evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043- 046. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Steinwedel  081 FXUS63 KBIS 160956 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 456 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening over far southwest North Dakota. - Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the middle of next week. - Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the eastern Great Lakes region while high settles through the eastern Montana/Wyoming and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough over the upper Midwest, while ridge stretches from the northern Sierra northward into the Canadian Rockies. Over our area, winds continue to gradually diminish from west to east with the high sliding through. In addition, where winds have tapered off and skies have cleared over our northern/western areas, temperatures have dipped below freezing, thus the Freeze Warning remains in places. For today, surface high settles southeast with return flow setting up over western parts of our area, with southerly winds increasing. Upper ridge pushes east as a notable wave over the northern Pacific approaches shore. This will bring clearing skies and dry conditions to our area. Over far southwest North Dakota, humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s, which combined with the expected southerly winds will result in near critical fire weather conditions. On Saturday, upper ridge pushes over our area while aforementioned Pacific wave quickly passes over the Canadian Rockies pushing into the western Canadian Prairies late day. Surface low closes off over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan in response, with winds shifting southwesterly over our area. Temperatures will climb to about 10 to 20 degrees above average, warmest over the southwest where highs in the mid 70s are expected, with mainly lower 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Upper wave continues its eastward push flattening out the ridge, while a modest cold front passes through our area as surface low works its way towards Hudson Bay late Saturday night into early Sunday. Though conditions remain dry, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Zonal flow remains in place to start the work week, with flow turning southwesterly towards mid-week as a Pacific low drops down along the West Coast. Conditions remain dry, with a very gradual warming trend over our area. Guidance then suggests that the low shifts easterly and opens up late week. Though the timing of this is a bit variable, it does bring precipitation chances to the forecast late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Areas of MVFR ceilings over western and central North Dakota will gradually improve to VFR during the overnight hours. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will also continue to gradually diminish. Southerly winds will then be on the increase this afternoon over western North Dakota, spreading east this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044- 055>062. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  177 FXUS66 KMTR 160958 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 258 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday before cooler, below normal weather returns Sunday into next week - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 11 AM Friday for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions overnight. Minimal to no overnight humidity recovery is expected with humidity values between 15 to 25% expected. Winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains have picked up across the highest peaks and will spread into the remainder of the NB Interior Mountains tonight. Offshore gusts are expected to peak between 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible across the highest ridgelines. Gusts between 40 to 60 mph have been observed across the highest peaks (3500+ ft) in northern Sonoma and Napa counties. As offshore winds pick up across the rest of the NB Interior Mountains, humidity values will drop with rapid fire spread possible should a fire start. Winds are expected to decrease by late morning with the Red Flag Warning set to expire at 11 AM. Although the winds will have decreased, very dry conditions (RH 10-20%) will persist through the rest of the day with poor overnight recoveries expected Friday into Saturday. As such, near critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. If you are participating in any activity involving flames outdoors, be very careful and do not allow sparks/embers to escape. Listen to all guidance from local officials. Upper level ridging continues with widespread above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk peaking today. Minimal relief is expected along the coast due to upper level ridging mixing out the marine layer. Interior highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s. Portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the southern Santa Clara Valley may reach the upper 90s. Expect hot conditions and patchy Moderate HeatRisk to continue into Saturday although a few degrees cooler than on Friday. If you're not a fan of hot weather, you're in luck as a pattern change is expected Sunday into next week (see Long Term discussion). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday as upper level ridging is replaced by broad troughing. High temperatures cool into the 70s to low 80s across the interior while the coast drops back into the 50s to 60s thanks to the return of the marine layer. Upper level troughing impacts become more pronounced over the course of the next week as a deep upper level low becomes cut-off from the jet stream and lingers along the Central/Southern California coastline through late next week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Alaska will move southwards along the California coast next week. This system will bring a much cooler airmass into the region and see a return of fall temperatures in the 60s to 70s and morning lows in the 40s to low 50s. Recent guidance has trended towards the low staying offshore rather than moving onshore next week. The current forecast shows thehighest rain totals along the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains where totals are between a quarter to half an inch. For the lower elevations expect up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and up to a quarter of an inch across the Central Coast. Periods of gusty onshore winds are likely along the coast, the higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes next week. Winds don't look to be widespread enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory but favored windy locations (Altamont Pass) will definitely be gusty. Another item to watch is the potential for thunderstorms with this system. NBM guidance has consistently maintained a low chance (<15%) of thunderstorms across the region. In favor of thunderstorms is the fact that this is a cold core low which is bringing in cooler air and may be more favorable for ice crystal development/eventual lightning development. Anti-thunderstorm development is the new more offshore track of the low which keeps the best MUCAPE and CAPE values offshore. This may be a setup where we see some sort of convective activity over the marine environment but it doesn't make it onto land (if the current track holds). Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Not much change from previous TAF package...VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn't include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. One new item for the 06Z will be monitoring winds for KHAF early tomorrow. In these offshore flow set ups winds can sometimes align for the E to NE and increase as they surface toward the ocean. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 258 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail over the coastal waters today and become moderate to fresh on Saturday. These winds hold into the early portion of the week. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...MM MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  577 FXUS65 KPSR 160902 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 202 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories in effect today through Saturday morning across southern Arizona and southeast California, with breezy to windy conditions expected as forecast peak wind gusts reach up to 40-55 mph. - Strong winds on today will likely lead to widespread lofted dust, leading to hazy conditions, and localized dust channels occasionally reducing visibility below one mile. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures the next couple days, then slightly cooler with a slight chances for rain showers this weekend. - A Pacific low pressure system moving down the coast early next week is currently forecast to bring regional rain chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures by the middle to latter portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level WV imagery and RAP40 500mb analysis show the cut off low now developed over southern California and northern Baja, while high pressure continues to strengthen over NW CONUS. The high pressure will be be the driving force for temperatures remaining near normal today. Though the core of the ridge is to the north of the state, H5 heights will still reach between 585-588 dam over the desert SW. As mentioned, near normal afternoon highs can be expected today with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s in the western lower deserts and along the Colorado River Valley, while south-central AZ will maintain highs in the mid to upper 80s. The upper level ridge will quickly pass and move into the Plains by Saturday, allowing heights aloft to dampen and be influenced by the lingering cut off low. This will result in Saturday cooling into the upper 70s to low 80s. This will also be in conjunction with increasing cloud coverage and about a 10-20% chances of light showers/virga across south- central AZ and the eastern high terrain as early as Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, the main weather concern will be winds due to a strong pressure gradient. This may be one of the the strongest easterly gradient wind events of the last decade. With strong winds lofted and blowing dust also poses a threat, especially across dust prone areas. Northerly winds gusts have already developed in the SE CA and along the Colorado River Valley and are under a Wind Advisory through Friday afternoon, where peak gusts between 40-45 mph can be expected. Over the next several hours this morning the surface high will migrate from southern Montana into the southern Plains/southern Rockies region and the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen and shifting the winds from the north to out of the east. Near sunrise this morning the Wind Advisory will expand eastwards into SW and SC Arizona, where gusts between 45-50 mph will be possible, while the Phoenix Metro will be slightly lower with gusts between 35- 45 mph. Winds this strong are likely to pick up a good amount of dust, creating hazy conditions, and will likely lead to some dust channels developing, with reduction in visibilities to under 1 mile at times, depending on land use. Most of the region will be under advisory level by mid afternoon today, while Pinal County and southern Gila County will continue with strong gusts through the overnight periods into late Saturday morning, with locally up to 55 mph over mountain peaks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The strong pressure gradient and resultant strong easterly winds across southern AZ will weaken heading into Sunday as the strong surface high in the Plains weakens and shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. Winds early Sunday morning will remain elevated over south- central Arizona and the higher terrain with gusts between 20-25 in SC AZ, and 30-35 mph in the higher terrain. Past sunrise these winds will quickly weaken as the upper level pattern continues to quickly shift. The ridge will continue to push eastwards, and the cutoff low will begin to weaken and become an open wave, lifting through the region Sunday- Monday. As the open wave moves drifts through, lingering light showers/virga remain in the forecast, 20-35% Sunday, then 10-20% Monday. This will be confined to the higher terrain areas, where with enough extra lift may be possible for showers to develop. However, if any activity does develop total accumulations are expected to be only a few hundredths, or near zero. For the lower deserts temperatures are expected to rebound back into the mid to upper 80s Sunday and into early next week. By late Monday into Tuesday a troughing feature will begin to dive down the western coastline, however confidence is low in the timing and strength of the feature. This has resulted in a decent amount of spread in for temperatures by mid next week. As it stands now temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal Monday-Tuesday then start to fall 6-9 degrees below normal for the later half of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concerns during the TAF period will be breezy to windy conditions along with lofted dust late Friday morning into the afternoon. In the meantime, NE flow will continue through tonight with sporadic gusts, though exact timing of these gusts remains low. Regardless, sustained speeds will remain relatively elevated compared to what is typical, and much stronger winds just above the surface may result in some localized LLWS. The strongest gusts during the forecast window look likely to occur Friday morning, sometime between 16-20Z, with observations nearing 30-35 kt. These strong winds will be capable of producing areas of BLDU which could result in instances of sub-VFR surface VIS. Whether or not dust impacts are seen at the surface, confidence is much greater in lofted dust resulting in slantwise VIS issues through much of the daylight hours. Clear skies will prevail through Friday afternoon before mid and high level cloud decks spread over the region after sunset. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Breezy conditions late Friday morning and afternoon will be the main aviation concern during the next 24 hours. However, some sporadic gusts around 25 kt cannot be ruled out overnight, especially at KBLH. NW-NE flow will be common at each terminal through the morning hours before tilting toward the NE/E beyond that. FEW to sometimes SCT mid-level clouds decks may be seen tonight, but more noticeable cloud cover will migrate over the region by the end of the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and seasonally low humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-30% across the region through Saturday. Winds will turn easterly over the morning, becoming stronger tonight through Saturday across southern AZ. Winds will be strongest over mountain tops during the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow and Saturday, with gusts up to 50-55 mph. Strong gusty winds will spread more to the lower deserts during the daylight hours and be strongest in the morning through early afternoon today, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. These strong easterlies and 20-25% RHs may still create locally elevated fire weather conditions midday through the afternoon tomorrow, but fuels are not the most receptive after recent rains. The easterly breezes will not be nearly as strong during the day Saturday and will trend down further into Sunday. Light showers are possible this weekend, but the chance for wetting rain is low (<10%). A Pacific trough is expected to bring regional rain chances, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-552-553-555-557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ531>534-536-538-539-554-559. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ537-540>546-548>551. CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ564-565- 568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Ryan  660 FXUS63 KGLD 160903 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 303 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper ridge begins to build in from the west today. The axis will be over the area on Saturday followed by southwest flow on Sunday as it continues to move east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over the High Plains today will move south, with a lee trough developing in its place on Saturday which moves little through Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period under the ridge. Winds will diminish today as the surface high builds in from the north. Return flow on Saturday combined with the deepening lee trough in Colorado will result in breezy south winds gusting up to 35 mph by the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in northeast Colorado as temperatures there warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity drops into the teens. The same area will see low humidity Sunday afternoon but winds will be lighter and elevated fire weather conditions are more likely than critical. Temperatures will be cool once again today with highs in the mid 50s, but warm over the weekend into the 60s and 70s. A light freeze is likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible (40% probabilities) in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to persist across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is high on southwest flow during this period. High pressure with a plethora of dry air aloft is likely. A shortwave trough, accompanied by weak low pressure at the surface, is forecasted to influence the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday into Tuesday. Dry air aloft is expected so nothing is to come from this feature other than a wind shift. Looking ahead, guidance foresees the next synoptic system making its way across the southwestern US Thursday. This negatively tilted trough should begin to influence the area then, keeping the 300-500mb winds southwesterly. Moisture advection is added into the mix with dewpoints anticipated to increase into the upper 50s for various locations. Strong low pressure and a stationary front are forecasted to form at the surface, providing rising motion needed for rain to develop. It will likely be quiet initially, precipitation wise, for a majority of the long-term period as dry air aloft dominates. PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) guidance displays less than 10% through Wednesday evening. Add Thursday into the mix and rainfall chances increase a bit. Confidence on widespread precip is on the low end right now as ensemble guidance attempts to project how the system evolves across the CONUS through Thursday. Nonetheless, a general 25-35% is forecasted for the time being. A warmup is expected for the region as temperatures bounce back, with help from high pressure, winds aloft, and plentiful sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday rise into the upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday, and should culminate into more consistent 80s throughout the CWA on Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight decrease in high temps but mid 70s to low 80s is still forecasted across the board. Overnight lows should sit in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday mornings then rise up to the 50s Wednesday and Thursday morning. Fire weather projects to be mild for this particular long-term forecast period. However, conditions will still have to be monitored thoroughly with relative humidity (RH) remaining low (20-30%), winds remaining gusty (up to 45 mph), and increasingly dry fuels expected across the CWA through next week. RH values are currently forecasted 20-25% Monday-Wednesday for portions of eastern Colorado. RH values elsewhere across the coverage area are projected at 30-50% through Thursday. Transitioning to surface winds, Monday's winds are anticipated to be light and variable (5-15 mph from the North) gusting up to 20 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday project slightly stronger winds (10-20 mph from the South) gusting up to 25 mph. Thursday is likely to observe the strongest southerly surface winds at around 15-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph through some areas of eastern Colorado. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts, with gusts around 25- 30 kts, through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will likely decrease around 22-23Z, to around 5-10 kts as they begin to shift to come from the south. Still expect low level wind shear to continue through around 11Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  837 FXUS65 KBOI 160947 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 347 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... The upper-level ridge centered over the western CONUS will keep temperatures warmer than normal today with clear skies. Dry surface layer conditions with weak winds will contribute to vast temperature differences from early morning lows, aided by radiational cooling, to peak heating during the afternoon. On Saturday, a weak upper-level shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest and southern Canadian provinces. This will erode the western periphery of the ridge, combining with a weak upper-level low moving north out of Baja California to put the area in weak southwesterly flow aloft. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. Sunday will see this weak southwesterly flow aloft continuing. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday, however the pattern change will be actively underway. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front move through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further, however precipitation confidence at this time is low. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1154 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL tomorrow. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions from valley fog near KBKE-KBNO again tonight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SE-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...CH LONG TERM....CH AVIATION.....CH  929 FXUS65 KMSO 160928 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 328 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty winds on Saturday creating choppy conditions for area lakes, especially across northwest Montana. - Cooler and showery by early to mid next week. High pressure remains in place over western Montana and north central Idaho today resulting in warm conditions above normal for this time of year. Patchy valley fog is possible again this morning but should dissipate by this afternoon. A dry cold front is still expected to move through the region on Saturday. Breezy conditions will develop area wide, though the strongest winds are anticipated across northwest Montana. West winds gusting 30 to 40 mph are anticipated, which will create choppy conditions on area lakes, including Flathead Lake. The increased wind will allow for better atmospheric mixing, allowing temperatures to top out into the upper 60s to near 70 for many valley locations. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front on Sunday, though still running a few degrees warmer than normal. Brief high pressure will build back over the region early next week, maintaining coll mornings and warm afternoons through Tuesday. Forecast models continue to cut off a large area of low pressure along the west coast by mid next week. With most of the energy with this system digging well south, it appears the Northern Rockies will be under split flow aloft. This will result in cooler temperatures and unsettled (showery) conditions. && .AVIATION...High pressure remains over western Montana and north central Idaho today. VFR conditions will dominate the airspace. However, valley fog will likely develop once again in lower river valleys, including near KGPI and KMSO. Fog may become dense for a few hours this morning near these airfields between 16/1100z and 16/1600z. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday bringing increase mid level cloud cover, and more notably, gusty westerly winds. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$  847 FXUS65 KREV 160925 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 225 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with east to southeast breezes this afternoon. * Increasing south to southwest winds may elevate fire concerns and pose impacts to recreation and travel on Monday. * Chances of rain and mountain snow increases between Tuesday and Thursday, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... East to northeast winds remain strong early this morning along the Sierra crest where gusts of 50-60 mph are noted in 1 AM surface obs. Ridge winds are expected to remain elevated through the morning, but should gradually weaken as the morning progresses. Elsewhere, breezy E/SE winds develop this afternoon with gusts of 25-30 mph posing minor fire concerns in far NE California and NW Nevada. Otherwise, a warm and dry pattern will be in place through the weekend with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s each day through Sunday. A deepening eastern Pacific trough will encourage gusty south to southwest winds Monday afternoon when there is a moderate to high probability of 30+ mph wind gusts. These winds and low humidity will support areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon, along with impacts to recreation and air/ground travel. Chances of rain and mountain snow increase between Tuesday and Thursday, but differences in trough evolution makes this a lower confidence forecast. Latest blended guidance does favor areas south of I-80 where chances (50-70%) are higher, but exact timing and amounts are still uncertain for now. -Salas && .AVIATION... Easterly FL100 winds of 30-35 kt will maintain mountain wave turbulence concerns along and west of the Sierra crest through 15Z this morning. E/SE surface gusts up to 15 kts are expected this afternoon at all area terminals. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR conditions to prevail through the weekend. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  547 FXUS61 KRLX 160941 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 541 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. The severe thunderstorm threat has decreased and trended downward compared to the previous forecast cycles due to lack of surface-based instability, though non-thunderstorm wind gusts threat remains robust. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence in a strong cold front that will bring showers, storms, and gusty winds today. 2) High confidence for a widespread, possible season ending frost/freeze for Saturday night into Sunday morning. 3) Increasing confidence in strong high pressure building across the area promoting dry weather after Saturday and continuing for a long stretch of dry weather into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A deepening surface low is tracking across the Great Lakes and driving due east while dragging a sharp cold front across the area today. The environment will be a high shear and low instability type environment with strong DCAPE and anomously high PWATs. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated however strong forced ascent along the front will allow for heavier shower activity and a few isolated thunderstorms to transport stronger momentum aloft down to the surface. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains to our northeast with isolated damaging winds being the primary threat. Steering flow will be strong enough to force shower or thunderstorm activity along without causing too much in the way of possible flooding issues. Outside thunderstorm activity strong cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient will yield widepsread wind gusts of 25 to 35mph across the lowlands and across the higher terrain gusts up to 40mph+ are probable as the front clears out this afternoon. Strong synoptic gusty winds will continue into early Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will promote a non-diurnal day and after mid morning starting in the upper 60s and 70s temperatures will crash into the 50s from west to east by late afternoon following frontal passage. Residual low-level moisture and upslope northwesterly flow will keep clouds and light showers lingering into Friday night and Saturday morning, especially on the western slopes of the mountains. Cold advection is strong enough that a few snowflakes may mix in at the highest peaks around Snowshoe, WV by daybreak Saturday. Accumulations are not expected at this time as probabilities are lower than 10% of that occurring. KEY MESSAGE 2... By Saturday afternoon, precipitation ends and high pressure builds in from the west effectively scouring out clouds and relaxing the pressure gradient. This will set up a very optimal radiational cooling night for Saturday into Sunday morning. With clear skies and decoupling winds along with a cold modified airmass firmly in place, temperatures will be able to plummet significantly. NBM deterministic and probabilistic guidance strongly indicates lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s across the board. Probabilities for lower than 32 degrees exceeded 90% for traditional cold spots and sheltered valleys in southeast Ohio and along the mountains. The broader lowlands of the Tri-state area suggests a 60-80% chances of seeing a hard freeze. Therefore, widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected likely ending the growing season for much of the area. Dense freezing river valley fog may also develop in the deeper river basins early Sunday and monday mornings. After collaboration with neighboring offices we all decided to hold off on a freeze watch for now. Neighbors did not want to go with one just yet so day shift will have to look at it and start a collaboration again. Regardless, we will need headlines for Saturday nights frost/freeze that is expected. KEY MESSAGE 3... Headed in to next week probabilities of precipitation near zero continuing an abnormally dry period in the long term as high pressure builds into the region and does not show signs of retreating. As an upper level trough exits to the east a broad mid level ridge and strong surface high pressure migrate from the Midwest to our region. This will yield a steady warming trend bringing daytime highs back to the upper 60s and low 70s by midweek with pleasant dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main theme with this TAF period is MVFR CIGs progressively lower toward the end of the period to where the mountains sites will likely endure IFR CIGs tonight. The rest of the sites should stay just over IFR but cannot rule out periods of IFR CIGs within rain showers. Winds will increase and will maintain a gusty status through the period to where wind gusts up to 25kts will be likely through the afternoon with some isolated higher gusts. Shower activity associated with a cold frontal passage will begin in the afternoon and last through the evening. VIS restrictions under shower activity will be likely and as the front shifts through by the mid afternoon a wind shift out of the northwest will take place. Any wind shear should be negated unless the surface winds decrease in intensity which they are forecast not too. Saturday morning fog is not likely due to increased shower activity or cloud coverage and elevated wind speeds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs may drop even lower this afternoon as frontal passage takes place. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions may linger Friday night, especially in the mountains. Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early-morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ  318 FXUS63 KDDC 160936 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 436 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong high pressure toward the north promotes elevated pressure gradient, resulting in breezy conditions today - High pressure moves overhead tonight, reducing winds and leading to widespread frost/freeze Saturday morning - Difference in timing is noted, but storm system late next week into next weekend could bring next precipitation chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong 1042 mb surface high pressure is currently centered over eastern MT and northern WY. A 1006 mb surface low is also centered over the Great Lakes. Between these features, an elevated pressure gradient is present, leading to breezy northwest winds across the forecast area later this morning. Bumped up the winds and gusts a few notches over NBM consensus, so expect winds 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Winds will gradually diminish as aforementioned high pressure begins to move southward through this afternoon and situates over the area late this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds, expect a widespread freeze tonight and into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area to account for this likelihood. Areas west of Route 283 will have a better potential for a harder, killing freeze with temperatures dropping into the middle 20s. Areas along and east of Route 283 still has a high probability of freezing temperatures, but generally temperatures are expected to be in the 29-32 degree range. These colder temperatures are short lived as return southerly flow emerges as the high pressure continues eastward over the central Mississippi Valley into this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Saturday, with 70s returning Sunday. Lows in this timeframe will be in the mid to upper 30s Sunday morning, and 40s by Monday morning. Temperatures continue to gradually build back around 80 by mid to late week as a ridge builds in ahead of a deepening and digging trough across the Western U.S. through next week. Our next chance of precipitation increases by late week next week and perhaps into next weekend. Globals differ on timing and placement of a potential development of a possible lee cyclone. GFS is a bit more progressive and farther north with the ENS slower, stronger, and farther south. In either case, should be on the warm side of the storm. Instability is meager among the models, leading to thunderstorm chance uncertainty. With the sweeping cold front getting well into the Gulf, any potential moisture return back into our area may be difficult to accomplish. POPs are low in the forecast as of now, with only chance categories around 30-40% Thursday and Friday. Climatologically, continued widespread rains like we've seen are harder to come by in these typically drier months. Otherwise, plenty of time to see how this upcoming pattern shakes out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 436 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Good flying weather will continue at all airports through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC persisting. Elevated to strong north winds are expected after 15z Fri, gusting 30-35 kts 15-21z Fri. North winds will diminish rapidly after 21z Fri. Expect winds to trend light and variable after 00z Sat, as strong surface high pressure settles over SW KS. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Turner  266 FXUS66 KSEW 160935 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 235 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions today. Wetter and cooler weather arrives on Saturday. Sunday remains cool with more wet weather headed our way on Monday. Another front may reach us midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...High pressure and offshore flow will lead to one more warm and dry day across western WA. East winds have peaked overnight with 40-50 MPH gusts in the Cascade ridges and 20-30 MPH in the gaps. Winds will continue to ease today. Patchy, shallow, fog is forming once again this morning, especially in areas where the wind is calm. The fog will burn off late this morning. Temperatures will track warmer than average with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s. Expect 60s near the water. Friday night/Saturday will be cooler and wetter as the ridge shifts east and a front and trough move in from the west. The bulk of the rain will fall tonight into Saturday morning and mainly affect the coast and mountains. Showers with a convergence zone are expected Saturday afternoon near the King/Snohomish line. A few sunbreaks are expected outside the convergence zone with afternoon highs in the 50s to lower 60s. We're in between systems on Sunday for cool but dry weather. Sunday morning lows will be in the 30s and 40s with temps near freezing around the south sound. Highs will be mostly in the 50s. 33 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper level low will spin offshore on Monday, with showers mainly clipping the coast. This system will weaken as it shifts farther south on Tuesday, with light/dry offshore flow across western WA. A weak front dissipates as it reaches the region Wednesday night and Thursday for a chance of light rain. 33 && .AVIATION...Southwesterly flow aloft through Saturday. Surface high pressure weakening today. Frontal system moving through the area Saturday morning. VFR conditions today with the exception of some patchy fog producing LIFR conditions over the Southwest Interior and the Kitsap Peninsula until 17z. MVFR ceilings developing along the coast tonight around 03z. The MVFR ceilings will spread inland 08z-12z Saturday. KSEA...Mostly clear skies today. Ceilings lowering tonight to around 5000 feet 06z-09z and to 1500 to 2000 feet 09z-12z. Light wind less than 5 knots becoming southerly 4 to 8 knots this afternoon. Felton && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters will weaken today. A frontal system will move through late tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure building over the waters Saturday afternoon will remain through Sunday. Another system will move by west of the coastal waters Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday. Small craft advisory westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca Saturday. Seas 5 to 7 feet today building to 7 to 9 feet Saturday and Sunday. Seas subsiding back down to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$