966 FXUS61 KAKQ 160717 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Updated aviation discussion for 06z/16 TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. 3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly. An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details. Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area. For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highest SE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area. Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, a cold front is situated to the south of the local area, with widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs in its wake. CIGs will continue to deteriorate early this morning, with LIFR possible at RIC, ORF, and PHF as we approach ~10-13z. In addition, light rain showers are possible across far northern portions of the area early this morning, with the highest chances at SBY. Light rain at SBY will likely keep CIGs from dropping to IFR until closer to sunrise. The cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front later this morning, leading to an increasing S-SW wind and a rapid improvement in flight conditions back to VFR ~14-16z. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the remainder of the forecast period, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) chances this evening into tonight. S-SW winds may be gusty at times later this morning into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later tonight through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially in the east. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south of the area returns north as a warm front. - SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area Friday night. - Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the waters outside of the rivers. NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be dropped at 4pm. NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front currently over NC will quickly move north Friday morning allowing winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday. However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE. However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be introduced into the lower James as some point. Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8 to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AC/MRD CLIMATE...LKB  994 FXUS61 KCLE 160701 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area today into Saturday. 2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre- frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning, while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the I-71/I-77 corridors. Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30 mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place with the building high should result in efficient radiative cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper 20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed. Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with increasing warm air advection. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... It will be an unsettled TAF period with showers and low ceilings at times. A cold front will cross from west to east between 10-13z this morning. Ahead of the front there are some widely scattered, mainly light showers, with ceilings ranging widely from mostly MVFR/VFR to some IFR/LIFR at eastern locations such as CAK/YNG. A broken line of gusty showers may develop along the front itself, especially in the CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG vicinity. Behind the front ceilings should all settle into an MVFR range (perhaps brief IFR right behind the front at some sites), with a more widespread batch of light rain showers expected to fill in 13-17z and continue through the afternoon. A secondary front is expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z this evening. Some more moderate showers can accompany this secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites as MVFR ceilings persist into tonight. North-northwest winds aligning over Lake Erie will allow light to moderate lake effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of CLE. Winds are initially south-southwest at 7-15kt with some gusts to around 25kt. Have low-level wind shear included at all sites initially with a 40-50kt low-level jet overhead and marginal to no mixing. Winds shift west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with the first front, then more northerly this evening and tonight behind the secondary front. Winds will remain 10-15kt tonight, but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to Lake Erie, especially impacting CLE and ERI. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high pressure influences much of the weather pattern. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Kahn  703 FXUS61 KCLE 160711 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 311 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area today into Saturday. 2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre- frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning, while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the I-71/I-77 corridors. Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30 mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place with the building high should result in efficient radiative cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper 20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed. Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with increasing warm air advection. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... It will be an unsettled TAF period with showers and low ceilings at times. A cold front will cross from west to east between 10-13z this morning. Ahead of the front there are some widely scattered, mainly light showers, with ceilings ranging widely from mostly MVFR/VFR to some IFR/LIFR at eastern locations such as CAK/YNG. A broken line of gusty showers may develop along the front itself, especially in the CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG vicinity. Behind the front ceilings should all settle into an MVFR range (perhaps brief IFR right behind the front at some sites), with a more widespread batch of light rain showers expected to fill in 13-17z and continue through the afternoon. A secondary front is expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z this evening. Some more moderate showers can accompany this secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites as MVFR ceilings persist into tonight. North-northwest winds aligning over Lake Erie will allow light to moderate lake effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of CLE. Winds are initially south-southwest at 7-15kt with some gusts to around 25kt. Have low-level wind shear included at all sites initially with a 40-50kt low-level jet overhead and marginal to no mixing. Winds shift west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with the first front, then more northerly this evening and tonight behind the secondary front. Winds will remain 10-15kt tonight, but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to Lake Erie, especially impacting CLE and ERI. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high pressure influences much of the weather pattern. Water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches above low water datum across the western basin early this morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the cold front. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Kahn  948 FXUS61 KPHI 160716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 updated. Aviation section updated for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front moves north through the region this morning, followed by a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Low pressure over the Great Lakes lifts northeast into the Province of Ontario by daybreak, then into the Province of Quebec as the day progresses. A warm front south of the area lifts north through the region this morning, then low pressure passing north of northern New England will drag a cold front through the region this afternoon and evening. Some light showers will impact the area through daybreak or so, possibly into the late morning with the passage of that warm front. Clouds over the area will lift and dissipate somewhat this afternoon, and then it will warm up quite nicely with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. With clouds breaking up and sunshine developing, gusty southwest winds will usher a more humid airmass into the area with surface dew points in the mid and upper 60s. While instability values will be relatively low, generally SBCAPE values and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg, but 06-km Bulk Shear will be upwards of 55-60 kt. SPC has the region in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Timing looks to be around 4pm to 6pm for the southern Poconos, far northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, 5pm to 7pm along the I-95 corridor, and from 6pm to 8 pm over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. After sunset, with loss of diurnal heating, the risk for severe weather will diminish. A tight pressure gradient then develops over the area tonight through Saturday as broad high pressure centered over the Southern Plains begins to build east. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop tonight and will continue through Saturday, with winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph with 25 to 35 mph gusts. Much cooler and drier on Saturday with highs in the 50s and surface dew points in the 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The primary trough axis looks to pass over the region by Saturday evening, with subtle height falls through Saturday night and into Sunday. Guidance is coming into better agreement that a portion of the trough will close off and linger offshore in the vicinity of the Carolinas, but high pressure will be settling into the region from the northwest. The end result should be mostly clear skies and diminishing winds through Saturday night. With the coldest airmass so far this season settling into the region, the primary question remaining for Saturday night's temperatures is how quickly winds diminish. Current indications are that it could remain a bit breezy through much of the evening, shortening the window of good radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, by dawn Sunday winds should be fairly light at least across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and adjacent northern NJ. Given this, the current forecast calls for temperatures at or below freezing across these areas. For southeastern PA and central and southern portions of inland NJ, temperatures will likely still fall into the mid 30s. Upper 30s to low 40s are expected across much of Delmarva and coastal NJ. Regarding frost, the airmass that will be infiltrating the area will also be fairly dry, so good radiational cooling will be needed to get widespread frost. Given this, the potential for widespread frost appears limited at this time to the Poconos and far northern NJ, with patchy frost still possible across the remainder of our eastern PA counties and inland NJ, especially the Pine Barrens. Frost and/or freeze headlines are still very likely to be needed for at least parts of the area Saturday night. Temperatures will begin slowly moderating Sunday into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...CIGs lower to IFR. Some VSBY restrictions, as low as MVFR, in SHRA possible. S-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Today...IFR CIGs in the morning, gradually lifting to VFR from 16Z to 20Z. A line of SHRA and TSRA will move fairly quickly across the terminals generally from 18Z to 21Z at KRDG/KABE, 19Z to 22Z at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, and from 20Z to 23Z at KMIV/KACY. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA taper off by 02Z, then VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt. High confidence. Saturday...VFR. NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. Sunday night through Monday night...Primarily VFR. There is a slight chance for a few rain showers for the near-coast terminals. Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. for later today. A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will move across the waters early this evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Winds turn north-northwest tonight and increase to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts that will last through Saturday. 30 to 35 kt gusts are possible Saturday morning. Will leave the Gale Watch up for all waters tonight through Saturday. Outlook... Saturday night...Advisory conditions likely with gales possible for the outer marine zones. North winds 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Seas 4-7 feet. Sunday...Advisory conditions may linger for much of the day with north-northeast winds 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Winds should begin to subside later in the day. Seas 4-7 feet, diminishing to 3-5 feet late. Sunday night through Tuesday...There is low confidence due to the potential influence of a possible developing surface low to the south of the region. Advisory conditions may re-develop and could potentially continue at times through Tuesday with elevated north-northeast winds and increasing seas. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/MPS MARINE...Cooper/MPS  824 FXUS63 KGRR 160700 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Wet, windy, and colder today; Frost tonight No surprises thus far with the ongoing system over the area this morning. The main batch of rain showers came through earlier with the nose of the strong low level jet passing through. This has exited east, and the initial cold front has just about cleared the area to the east as of 230 am. Plenty of forcing remains and continues to bring showers to the area as the large northern stream trough is now approaching with large scale upper divergence ahead of it moving over the area. In addition, the RRQ of a 140 knot upper jet will aid in the rain development this morning. We continue to watch the secondary front/cold conveyor belt that is expected to drop through from mid morning into the early afternoon hours. This will bring more showers to the area, highly concentrated near the lakeshore where cold enough low level air and cyclonic flow/cold air aloft moves in. We continue to see good signs that a few storms will be possible close to the lakeshore with this feature due to the strong instability over the lake feeding this. The flow will quickly shift to become more from the NNE behind this front. We will see the gusty winds behind this, which look to peak around 40 mph for a brief time. No wind advisory looks to be needed at this time. Even along the lakeshore where it will be slightly offshore. We will see a few pop up rain showers continue to be possible inland, but nothing looks to be organized. Once we lose the diurnal boost of the instability, the threat for showers will drop significantly or end. The upper cyclonic flow will exit the area after 00z, allowing ridging to build in through the night. Winds will be up in the evening, but will settle down quite a bit overnight. We could decouple well at that time, and see a fair amount of frost for much of the interior. A frost advisory may be needed, and can be issued by the day shift. - Tranquil weather for Sat and beyond with moderating temperatures Confidence continues to increase that we will see an extended period of tranquil weather from Saturday through the upcoming week, and likely beyond. The increased confidence comes as we see the pattern expected to be even more amplified than previously thought, and the favorable weather under the upper ridge expected to be over our region. The upper trough/low to our west is expected to close off now and slow up in trying to move east. This is likely at least partially due to the closed low off of the east coast and upper ridge slowing down the progression of the upper air flow over the CONUS. The majority of the time, pops will be near zero with strong subsidence overhead. There is a period on Thursday and Friday where the ridge is temporarily flattened by energy over Canada. These short waves will have no decent moisture to advect in, and little to no moisture to start with. Temperatures will start out cool on Saturday in the 50s with the cool flow from Canada remaining in place immediately behind the Friday system. We will see heights build, and a return flow advect warmer air gradually over the area. We are likely to see temperatures approach 70 by mid week, and stay mild through the end of the week, with just a slight cool down with the ridge flattened briefly. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The first batch of rain has moved through the area ahead of a front that is located near KLAN toKJXN at 0530z. A noticeable wind switch is occurring with the front, and a brief increase in wind gusts to about 35 knots. IFR remains dominate across the area with pockets of MVFR. IFR will continue for a few more hours with showers continuing with the next part of this system moving in. Conditions will improve to MVFR this morning, but we could see some IFR with another front moving through mid-morning to early afternoon. This front could actually cause some storms at KMKG with the instability over the lake. Once the secondary front moves through this afternoon, winds will shift to become from the NNW and gust to 30-35 knots. Conditions will improve slowly to high end MVFR, and eventually VFR late this afternoon and evening. Showers will tend to migrate closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline. More cloud cover may hold at KLAN and KJXN this evening with some clouds coming in from Lake Huron. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Everything looks to be on track with regards to headlines this morning, so no changes are necessary at this time. We have solid Small Craft Advisory conditions ongoing behind the initial front that passed through around midnight. The Gales are expected to arrive by noon with a secondary front dropping through that will bring a nice cold surge with it. Solid Gales remain expected, with a small chance of a brief Storm Force wind gust. Not enough to need a Storm Warning. Winds will steadily diminish then this evening as we see a sfc ridge axis pass through. This will be short lived as another strong area of gradient winds drops down over the area late Saturday through most of Sunday. Those winds and waves will require another Small Craft Advisory to be issued. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  257 FXUS63 KLSX 160725 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 225 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Frost Advisory is in effect Friday night across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois where confidence is highest in widespread temperatures in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A highly amplified trough can be seen in water vapor imagery currently digging equatorward into the Midwest. The cold front associated with this trough and the one responsible for yesterday's rain has cleared the CWA to the southeast, with deepening northwesterly flow ushering in a fall-like air mass. This air mass will bring notably cooler temperatures compared to what we've been experiencing as of late, with a muted diurnal curve today leading to temperatures topping out in the low to mid 50s; some 20-30 degrees cooler than values on Thursday. Dry conditions are expected for most locations today, with the axis of the upper-level trough only producing a 20- 30% chance of light rain for areas east of the Mississippi River as it pivots overhead during the afternoon. Tonight, high pressure at the surface will settle into the Central and Southern Plains; nosing into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As a result, the pressure gradient will slacken and winds become light to calm as skies gradually clear from north to south. This will make for ideal frost conditions across portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois, where radiational cooling will allow for widespread lows in the mid-30s - the temperature threshold generally needed for frost development. Where confidence is highest in these conditions occurring, a Frost Advisory is now in effect late Friday night through early Saturday morning. Thanks to the upper-level trough moving further eastward of the region Saturday, low to mid-level temperatures will bounce back by a few degrees C compared to their Friday minimum. Between this and clear skies allowing for abundant insolation, afternoon temperatures will warm to around 60 degrees, which is still about 10 degrees below seasonal normals. There is a low threat (40%) for additional frost across portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Saturday night, and will be dependent on where the aforementioned surface high is relative to the CWA then. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Thanks to consensus among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance, confidence is high in a benign and uneventful pattern through the upcoming workweek. Continuous troughing over the West Coast and ridging to our east-southeast will keep upper-level flow weakly southwesterly through this portion of the period. This supports warm air advection, though subtly given the weakness of the flow. As a result, daily temperatures will only gradually warm through the workweek. Values closer to seasonal normals are at least expected through the first half of the workweek, but how much warmer we climb toward the end of the week is uncertain. The NBM pushes afternoon highs to around 80 degrees Thursday and Friday, though that is roughly 5 degrees warmer than the 75th percentile of ensemble guidance. This is due to the bias- corrected guidance composing the NBM, and this guidance is several degrees warmer than their non-biased counterparts. Given the bias factor applied here may be too warm given our seasonal cooling, confidence is low in the NBM's late-week temperature forecast. Given the weakness of the flow aloft and lack of any notable disturbances in deterministic guidance, confidence is high in dry conditions prevailing through this portion of the period. This is supported by nearly all ensemble members showing this stretch being rain-free. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The cold front has pushed through the terminals, with gusty northwest winds and ceilings around 1500 feet AGL in its wake. There is still expected to be a break in the MVFR ceilings later tonight into early Friday morning before more widespread stratus moves back in from the northwest. Ceilings with this round are expected to be near 2000 feet AGL, though sub 2000 foot ceilings are expected for a few hours at KUIN. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ018-019- 026-027-034>036-042-052. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ058>060- 095>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...Elmore LONG TERM...Elmore AVIATION...Gosselin  992 FXUS63 KMQT 160718 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall, both associated with a low pressure passing to the south and its trailing lake effect regime, will lead to an additional tenth to half inch of rain (3/4" or higher along the high terrain of Marquette/Baraga counties) today. - A Gale Warning is in effect as gusty northwest winds to 45 kt are forecast for Lake Superior and 35-40 kt for northern Lake Michigan. The highest waves will be for east-central Lake Superior at 14-18 ft. - Dry and windy conditions this weekend may bring an additional risk for fire weather, but there is uncertainty in the moisture (both in the air and in the fuels). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Midnight KMQT radar shows widespread rainfall but with more striation patterns occurring with time to indicated mesoscale bands forming. These bands will lead to some spatial variation in the rainfall totals by the time synoptic rainfall ends this morning and we transition to a lake effect rainfall pattern. At the surface, a 1005mb low is traversing the Lower Peninsula with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Dakotas as 1040mb high pressure moves over the MT/WY/SD tripoint. Aloft, the low is supported by a positively tilted 500mb trough centered over Minnesota and the high is supported by a ridge axis most prominent over the Canadian and northern US Rockies (which sits atop a monsoon trough over San Diego). With the positive tilt of the trough and the trough itself being tilted with respect to height above the surface low, the low will deepen as it moves east into this weekend, and despite the high weakening slightly with time, the strengthening low will keep the post-low pressure gradient strong. This will drive gusty winds, in conjunction with isallobaric winds (GFS shows up to 10mb/6hr rises today) and cold advection aloft will help mix down stronger winds aloft as well. Mean peak surface wind gusts in the HREF by noon today are 35-40 mph over land and 40-45 mph at and around Lake Superior as a result. On the precipitation side of things, the aforementioned cold advection will bring 850mb temperatures down to around -4 to -8 C over a Lake Superior that is around 10-12 C, inducing up to 200 J/kg of instability over eastern Lake Superior per the NAM. As ridging aloft spills into the Plains and high pressure advances towards the region, lake effect rain (and even a 10-20% chance of the first few snowflakes of the season, no accumulation forecast) will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity, ending altogether Saturday. By 06Z Saturday, mean HREF QPF is highest (0.75"+) along an arc from the US41/US141 split, up to the Mount Arvon/Eagle Mine vicinity, and down to Palmer, with the areas surrounding this arc seeing around a half inch on average and the rest of the UP still seeing a wetting rain (about 0.1"-0.33"), though perhaps not enough to bust the drought. Still, 2 of the 3 largest ongoing wildfires are within this arc, which the rain will help keep the fire behavior down, though it will also complicate access to the fire further (muddy roads, slick exposed rock, low ceilings for aviation support, etc). Despite rainfall ending Saturday, this weekend will still carry some weather impacts. Atop the advancing ridge will be a rapidly moving and compact trough passing through the northern portions of the Canadian Prairie provinces into Hudson Bay. While the trough and resulting surface low will be too far away to deliver further precipitation to the UP for the back end of this weekend, the low (around 986 mb over western Hudson Bay Sunday afternoon per the GFS) will squeeze the pressure gradient tighter against the high pressure, whichthe GFS resolves at 1035 mb over Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. This results in Euro ensemble mean gusts over the UP of 25-35 mph out of the southwest both afternoons of Saturday and Sunday, paired with LREF chances of sub-30% RHs at up to 25%. This combination of dry and windy weather could once again result in worsening wildfire weather conditions, though confidence on the RH forecast is low as well as low confidence in fuel moistures (the main question being "was wet weather this week enough to moisten the fuels in a meaningful way?"), so the forecast continues to bear monitoring through the weekend. More consistent ridging over central North America will bring quieter weather (continued lack of rainfall but this time with lighter winds) for the beginning of next week. Expect highs around the 60s (perhaps lower for the Keweenaw and Lake Superior shores) and lows around the freezing mark in the interior and 40s closer to the shores. The next batch of widespread rainfall appears to be with a trough that passes through the Canadian Prairie in the back half of the week, but differences in ensemble timing and intensity of the parent trough results in the peak in PoPs in the NBM being around 35% Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a low pressure over Lower Michigan tracks east, a colder airmass presses in from the west. This transitions lingering stratiform rain over to lake effect rain showers this morning with MVFR/IFR conditions. Drier air working in through the day eventually lifts and scatters out lingering lake effect cloudiness, returning all sites to VFR from west to east this afternoon. Winds quickly strengthen this morning out of the north to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-40 kts, strongest at CMX. Winds taper off from west to east, settling below 10 kts this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A deepening low pressure moving through the southern end of the Great Lakes Basin contrasting with high pressure to the west will drive wind gusts to 45 kt out of the northwest over Lake Superior and to 35-40 kt over northern Lake Michigan. This has resulted in Gale Warnings which continue this morning. Wave heights remain maximized over east-central Lake Superior this afternoon at 14-18 ft. Wind gusts briefly fall below 20 kt tonight, but increase out of the southwest again Saturday through Sunday. Chances of gales vary between model sources, but the Euro ensemble gives isolated pockets of 20-40% chances of gale force gusts over the west half of Lake Superior. With inconsistencies in space and between models, will elect to hold off on any watches for this weekend, and if they are needed, may need to be short-fused as more high-resolution guidance becomes available. Wave heights over the west half of Lake Superior build to 6-10 ft by Saturday afternoon and to 8-12 ft Sunday afternoon (locally higher immediately north of the Keweenaw Peninsula). As wind gusts fall below 20 kt for Sunday night, wave heights also gradually relax, falling below 4 ft for the US waters of Lake Superior early Monday morning while northern Lake Superior falls below 4 ft waves around noon Monday. Quiet marine conditions are then expected for the first half of next week, with the next disturbance arriving around Thursday, but differences in models in regards to timing and location of the next system vary significantly, so the confidence in the precise wind and wave forecast is low. Chances of gales in the back half of next week are 5-15%. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/this afternoon for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249>251-266- 267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...77 MARINE...GS  624 FXUS65 KABQ 160710 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 110 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Brisk conditions will prevail behind a backdoor cold front today, but with speeds well below yesterday's. - The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning. - Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area from mid through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Wind speeds are trending down more rapidly than previously forecast behind the backdoor front, so have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the middle RGV and South Central Highlands. If current trends continue, we'll likely cancel the remainder of the warning by sunrise. Strong cold air advection behind the front is resulting in brisk conditions and that will continue for most areas today. The current Freeze Warning across portions of northeast and east central NM will need winds to diminish to work out, which is still likely at this time. High temperatures today will range from 5 to 15 degrees below average. Significant drying of the atmosphere is expected today into Saturday as ridging aloft strengthens as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula. With a very dry atmosphere and decoupling winds this evening, an ideal radiational cooling setup will bring the coldest night so far this season and a Freeze Watch is in effect for much of the lower elevations including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros. Below average temperatures will continue Saturday, with highs in the 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Moisture advection will be the rule from Saturday night through Monday as the Baja low fills and ejects northeast into the region, bringing Pacific moisture and increasing chances for precipitation. This will be a top-down moistening process favoring western NM through Monday. All eyes turn to a potent upper level low diving south offshore of CA Tuesday, which is forecast to turn inland over SoCal on Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to rise further through Thursday as the upper level low fills and lifts northeast across the region, steering remnant tropical moisture into NM. Thursday still looks to be the wettest day next week and our forecast PoPs continue to trend up. This will be a warmer system, so rain is likely from the mid-slopes of the mountains into the lower elevations with snow across the peaks. The 00Z medium range model solutions are generally agreeable through at least Thursday, so forecast confidence is moderate to high for a return to wetter conditions next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Strong winds behind a backdoor cold front are currently impacting central and western terminals, but are forecast to trend down while remaining gusty through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Gusty winds will continue behind a backdoor cold front today, but well below yesterday's speeds. Drier and colder conditions will prevail behind the cold front through Saturday, with vent rates trending down. A Pacific disturbance will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to western NM Sunday, then spread east into central NM Monday into Tuesday. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late week, with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas from the central mountain chain westward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 62 30 64 36 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 58 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 59 33 62 36 / 0 0 5 20 Magdalena....................... 55 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 54 28 57 35 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 5 20 Glenwood........................ 71 39 68 41 / 0 0 10 20 Chama........................... 59 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 20 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 60 27 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 32 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 65 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 68 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 33 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 29 59 37 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 59 30 62 38 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 58 27 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 25 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 26 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 26 59 35 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 27 56 36 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 25 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 55 24 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 57 24 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 26 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 30 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ222-223- 228>230. High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ220-225. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11  973 FXUS65 KLKN 160701 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably warm weather today through Monday * Cooling trend Tuesday through Thursday * A storm system will impact Eastern Nevada Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Nevada will be located between a weak trough to the south, and a ridge of high pressure strengthening to the north. The upper levels will still remain dry from the overlying ridge, resulting in minimal cloud cover for the next few days. Unseasonably warm weather will persist through at least the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s as we move into the weekend. Low temperatures are currently expected to stay in the low 30s tonight and are expected to increase up to the upper 30s to lower 40s as we get to Sunday before the weather pattern shifts. After Monday, we are still expecting a polar jet to push through, bringing a very deep low, colder temperatures, and precipitation. Long range model guidance is showing a deep low moving off the Pacific Ocean across portions of AZ, CA, and southern NV, which will extend a vorticity maxima line across the state with the passage. The different models are still struggling with timing, but there is an overall trend of moving it later into the forecast period. The GFS currently has the primary passage occurring for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, while the ECMWF is looking more mid-day Thursday into Friday. Precipitation types are still a question, with the biggest concerns being around the surface. As of right now, the less whimsical option appears more likely, in the surface lows will stay above freezing until after the FROPA and the precipitation has passed. This means widespread rain is in the forecast with potential for snow mostly in the higher elevations. This does not mean that we won’t see any snow in the valleys, but the likelihood of just rain is still seeming higher. As we push into this event, the highs are supposed to be in the upper 50s/ low 60s pre-frontal, and in the mid 40s/ low 50s post-frontal. The lows are expected to follow the pattern of upper 30s/ low 40s pre-frontal, and in the mid 30s post-frontal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for a relatively clear and pleasant weekend. Medium confidence in the polar jet bringing precipitation and cold temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Low confidence in precipitation type and timing of the polar jet. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures each afternoon today through Monday will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be below seasonal values. The next storm system will impact the Silver State Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 82  288 FXUS66 KMTR 160707 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1207 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday before cooler, below normal weather returns Sunday into next week - Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and offshore flow through Saturday - Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Today and tonight) A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 11 AM Friday for the North Bay Interior Mountains due to moderate offshore winds and critically dry conditions overnight. Minimal to no overnight humidity recovery is expected with humidity values between 15 to 25% expected. Winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains have picked up across the highest peaks and will spread into the remainder of the NB Interior Mountains tonight. Offshore gusts are expected to peak between 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts possible across the highest ridgelines. Gusts between 40 to 60 mph have been observed across the highest peaks (3500+ ft) in northern Sonoma and Napa counties. As offshore winds pick up across the rest of the NB Interior Mountains, humidity values will drop with rapid fire spread possible should a fire start. Winds are expected to decrease by late morning with the Red Flag Warning set to expire at 11 AM. Although the winds will have decreased, very dry conditions (RH 10-20%) will persist through the rest of the day with poor overnight recoveries expected Friday into Saturday. As such, near critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday. If you are participating in any activity involving flames outdoors, be very careful and do not allow sparks/embers to escape. Listen to all guidance from local officials. Upper level ridging continues with widespread above normal temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk peaking today. Minimal relief is expected along the coast due to upper level ridging mixing out the marine layer. Interior highs peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s. Portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the southern Santa Clara Valley may reach the upper 90s. Expect hot conditions and patchy Moderate HeatRisk to continue into Saturday although a few degrees cooler than on Friday. If you're not a fan of hot weather, you're in luck as a pattern change is expected Sunday into next week (see Long Term discussion). && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures return to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday as upper level ridging is replaced by broad troughing. High temperatures cool into the 70s to low 80s across the interior while the coast drops back into the 50s to 60s thanks to the return of the marine layer. Upper level troughing impacts become more pronounced over the course of the next week as a deep upper level low becomes cut-off from the jet stream and lingers along the Central/Southern California coastline through late next week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system originating from the Gulf of Alaska will move southwards along the California coast next week. This system will bring a much cooler airmass into the region and see a return of fall temperatures in the 60s to 70s and morning lows in the 40s to low 50s. Recent guidance has trended towards the low staying offshore rather than moving onshore next week. The current forecast shows the highest rain totals along the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz Mountains where totals are between a quarter to half an inch. For the lower elevations expect up to a tenth of an inch across the Bay Area and up to a quarter of an inch across the Central Coast. Periods of gusty onshore winds are likely along the coast, the higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes next week. Winds don't look to be widespread enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory but favored windy locations (Altamont Pass) will definitely be gusty. Another item to watch is the potential for thunderstorms with this system. NBM guidance has consistently maintained a low chance (<15%) of thunderstorms across the region. In favor of thunderstorms is the fact that this is a cold core low which is bringing in cooler air and may be more favorable for ice crystal development/eventual lightning development. Anti-thunderstorm development is the new more offshore track of the low which keeps the best MUCAPE and CAPE values offshore. This may be a setup where we see some sort of convective activity over the marine environment but it doesn't make it onto land (if the current track holds). Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Not much change from previous TAF package...VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn't include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. One new item for the 06Z will be monitoring winds for KHAF early tomorrow. In these offshore flow set ups winds can sometimes align for the E to NE and increase as they surface toward the ocean. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 934 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure to the north will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters through Friday. A storm passing well to the north will usher in moderate to fresh northerly breezes this weekend. The increasing winds will bring a fresh swell and steeper wind waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  353 FXUS61 KOKX 160729 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW winds during Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon. The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3 hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather, with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear environment. CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for far eastern sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day. Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night. Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s withmuch lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal system approaches from the west overnight. The associated warm front lifts through later this morning, followed by a cold frontal passage late this afternoon into early evening. MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east through 9Z, then likely lowering to IFR shortly thereafter. Showers also develop and move through during this time and restrict vsbys. Showers taper by late morning, but conditions likely remain MVFR into the afternoon, before possibly improving to VFR for NYC and LoHud Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, but it also remains possible they remain MVFR through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. SSE flow around 10 kt early this morning veers S then SW into late morning, with gusts toward 20 developing. Gusts continue into the afternoon 20-25 kt. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW Friday evening into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of changing flight categories this morning and later today could vary by an hour or two. Amendments likely. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR -SHRA. NW winds G25kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday. Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DR MARINE...JE  036 FXUS61 KOKX 160720 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 320 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging winds gusts are possible with any severe storms. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW during Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon. The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3 hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather, with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear environment. CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for far eastern sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day. Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night. Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with muchlighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal system approaches from the west overnight. The associated warm front lifts through later this morning, followed by a cold frontal passage late this afternoon into early evening. MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east through 9Z, then likely lowering to IFR shortly thereafter. Showers also develop and move through during this time and restrict vsbys. Showers taper by late morning, but conditions likely remain MVFR into the afternoon, before possibly improving to VFR for NYC and LoHud Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, but it also remains possible they remain MVFR through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. SSE flow around 10 kt early this morning veers S then SW into late morning, with gusts toward 20 developing. Gusts continue into the afternoon 20-25 kt. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW Friday evening into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of changing flight categories this morning and later today could vary by an hour or two. Amendments likely. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR -SHRA. NW winds G25kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday. Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DR MARINE...JE  588 FXUS61 KRNK 160751 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 351 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Rain chances were increased across the mountains during this evening, though rainfall amounts are similar to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front arriving today will trigger scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, along with breezy winds through Saturday morning. 2) Confidence is high for frost and pockets of freezing temperatures to occur across the mountains on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front arriving today will trigger scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, along with breezy winds through Saturday morning. Starting the morning off with low clouds across the Piedmont, and areas of locally dense fog across portions of the New River Valley where skies are mostly clear. These conditions will improve quickly after 10 AM as wind speeds gradually increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Today will provide the last of the summer-like temperatures for a while as warm air pools ahead of the approaching front. With highs reaching into the mid/upper 70s across the mountains, and into the 80s further east, will be testing the record high temperature of 85 for Roanoke if clouds can break up early enough. Afternoon highs will reach within a few degrees of records for several other locations as well. The cold front will enter southeast West Virginia from the northwest during late afternoon/early evening, triggering a broken line of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two along its leading edge. The front will pass east quickly, reaching the Highway 29 corridor between Lynchburg and Danville by around 8 PM and exiting our area to the east by 10 PM. Forecasting mainly shower activity this evening across the mountains due to limited energy, but cannot rule out a few storms developing across the Piedmont given the unusually warm temperatures there. Any potential for damaging wind gusts appears to be highly limited. Showers will persist across our area through much of the night as a supporting upper level disturbance passes across the central Appalachians, with lingering rain forecast to tapper off around sunrise Saturday. Given the strength of this cold front, wind gusts will increase to between 15 mph and locally 25 mph from the west-southwest during mid-morning and through mid-afternoon, and will then increase into the 20 mph to locally 35 mph range from the northwest in the wake of the front's passage. Winds will remain breezy overnight, and through much of Saturday before gradually diminishing after sunset Saturday evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is high for frost and pockets of freezing temperatures to occur across the mountains on Sunday morning. With wind speeds decreasing and skies clearing Saturday night, confidence is high for areas of frost to develop across the mountains and possibly even the foothills east of the Blue Ridge. There are also signals that some of the more sheltered mountain valleys will fall below freezing by sunrise Sunday, effectively ending the growing season there. Confidence is not high that the coverage of sub-freezing temperatures will extend beyond those locations however, given the possibility that winds may remain just breezy enough to mix the slightly warmer air aloft down to ground-level. Still, day shift may opt to issue a Freeze Watch for some mountain locations later today if newer data supports it. After another chilly night on Monday night, temperatures will moderate to near normal for mid-October through the remainder of the next workweek. No hazardous weather is expected during this period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Starting the day with widespread IFR ceilings for locations east of the Blue Ridge, and with pockets of fog in place in the river valleys of southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. Given the approach of a cold front today, winds speeds will increase after 14Z, allowing low clouds and reduced visibilities to improve quickly to VFR conditions by 16Z. Gusts will range from 15kt to 20kt from the west-southwest from late morning through mid-afternoon. A cold front will pass across KBLF and KLWB in southeast West Virginia during the 20Z to 22Z timeframe, triggering a broken line of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, in addition to a northwesterly wind shift. The front will push quickly east, reaching KDAN and KLYH during the 17/00Z to 17/02Z timeframe, triggering showers and possibly of a few storms. Winds behind the front will gust in the 20kt to the locally 30kt range through the remainder of the TAF period. Passage of the front will also bring another round of low MVFR to IFR ceilings across the mountains. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain showers will persist through tonight and gradually end by around sunrise on Saturday. Winds will gust between 20kt and 30kt from the north through much of the day on Saturday, with decreasing clouds through the morning and early afternoon. Speeds will decrease Saturday evening to 10kt or less around sunset. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NF AVIATION...NF  792 FXUS62 KFFC 160713 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 313 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions will persist for the next 7 days. - A mostly dry cold front moving through late Friday will bring crisp fall temperatures and gusty winds to the area to start off the weekend. - The first near freezing temperatures (<35F) are possible for the higher mountains of northeast Georgia Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A robust trough swinging through the eastern CONUS will define the weather through the next few days. A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, however limited moisture (PWATS < 1.3) will limit precipitation chances. CAM guidance does indicate PoPs may be notably higher than the lower resolution global models are hinting at, so may see an uptrend in the PoPs as we get through the next couple forecast updates. For now, PoPs will remain generally less than 15% today. There will likely be at least a couple light showers somewhere in north GA this afternoon. The main concern with this front will be wind risk. Strong upper level support will rapidly tighten the pressure gradient over the southeast coastal states. Winds of 15 to 25 mph will be likely with gusts to 35 mph at times Friday night into Saturday morning. Gusts on the north GA ridgelines could reach 40 to 50 mph. With recent wind damage from last week's storm, trees and limbs could be more prone to wind damage. Significantly drier air will quickly follow the frontal passage. PWATs will fall from around 1.25" to <0.5" in about 24 hrs. Dry and breezy conditions will mean much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s and 40s (much more seasonable). Temperatures at the highest elevations in far northeast GA may actually approach frost conditions Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term will bring continued persistent dry weather with cooler temperatures moderating through next week. By Sunday, surface high pressure centered from New England into the Northeast will extend southwestward into the region. Meanwhile, midlevel ridging will begin to extend its grip eastward. Cool, breezy northeast winds will be enhanced by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and a developing low in the western Atlantic. Combined with temperatures remaining below normal (highs only reaching the low to mid 60s for most), Sunday will feel decidedly Fall-like. Though morning lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s through the week, daytime highs will begin a more noticeable warming trend by Monday. Highs will begin to nudge back toward the 70s for most areas by Monday with widespread 70s thereafter. All-in-all, next week will bring pleasant and seasonal conditions. As far as rainfall prospects are concerned, continued high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep things bone dry. In fact, ensembles continue to indicate likely dry weather extending toward the end of October. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR through period. A fast moving, mostly dry cold front moves through this aftn. Winds pick up with the front out of the NW with gusts up to 30kts. Some iso shra may be psbl this aftn, mostly N of I85, though coverage will be patchy and brief. SCT MVFR psbl this evening along the front. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence PoPs. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 86 52 66 44 / 0 10 0 0 Atlanta 84 51 65 47 / 100 0 0 Blairsville 80 42 58 35 / 10 10 0 0 Cartersville 85 48 64 42 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 86 52 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 83 50 64 44 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 88 54 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 85 48 63 41 / 20 10 0 0 Peachtree City 85 48 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 87 61 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...SM  827 FXUS63 KDMX 160757 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north/northwest winds this morning topping 40 mph at times - Rain showers expected north and east this morning. - Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Short wave trough is passing through Iowa currently with a cold front approaching the state as well over Minnesota and South Dakota. Surface low pressure is over Michigan with a broad area of stratus and some showers extending west and just behind the upper level trough passage. The main forecast challenge this morning will be the wind gusts and if they reach advisory criteria. The pressure gradient will continue to increase this morning and maximize this morning over north central Iowa around 35 ubars/km. The primary pressure height rises will be to the north of the state but will also clip across northern Iowa. The mixed layer depth this morning while the max 925-850 mb winds are passing by though is less certain. Model Sounding profiles remain mostly saturated through this layer with cloud bases around 1500 ft and this is aligning well with the bases currently over southern Minnesota. Some cold advection will be occurring but that will be limited by the moist profiles during this period. The another source of subsidence is the mid-level descent behind the upper level energy, which is further back upstream and will arrive as the mixed layer winds are diminishing. The current wind gusts upstream are mostly below 35 kts. A few higher gusts have been associated with area with rain showers. Those showers will move across the north and east this morning so will continue to monitor and at this time, will hold off on wind headlines. May need a Special Weather Statement if the higher gusts continue with any rain showers and will reconsider an advisory if it becomes more widespread. The wind will begin to diminish this afternoon and should get some breaks in the stratus over northern Iowa by mid to late afternoon as high pressure ridging approaches from the west. Profiles should quickly decouple around sunset leading to the wind further diminishing. Overnight low temperatures are the challenge for the overnight. A big factor in the challenge for temperatures overnight is the shallow cold layer near the surface with a relatively steep inversion just 500-700 ft off the surface. This type of a steep and low inversion can prove difficult for surface temperatures to fall off too much. Factoring in the new wet ground and also still warmer, and the ground itself won't cool quickly. The wind also may not completely go calm with the high center off to the southwest so some uncertainly on the level of radiational cooling that can be achieved. Despite the uncertainty, big picture for Iowa, still expect several areas to reach freezing or below, especially north and west and widespread frost for most areas. Coldest temperatures will be rural with warmer areas in the larger metros including Des Moines where frost is expected even if freezing temperatures are not achieved. Coordinated a transition from the Freeze Watch to a Warning and as noted above, some areas may not reach freezing but this will be the first cold impacts of this Fall season. Saturday will be mostly sunny and will become breezy from the south as return flow arrives. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall intothe upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Intermission of VFR cigs to start, but MVFR stratus is on the way from the northwest in the next 6 hours. Added Prob30 mentions for showers at KALO in the morning. Also added gusts into the Prob30 groups as winds could be higher with precip. MVFR departure was delayed for all sites, especially north. Gusts over 30kts common between 12 and 18z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>096. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Jimenez  370 FXUS65 KBOU 160708 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight. - Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent obs show temperatures starting to drop over parts of the eastern plains, and most of the cloud cover from earlier today has cleared out. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am Friday for the eastern plains & I-25 corridor, where lows tonight are expected to drop into the upper 20s-low 30s. Winds should stay light across the area overnight, with some breezier conditions (gusts of about 15- 20mph) in the northeasternmost plains. Cooler temperatures persist Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the plains & I-25 corridor. Downsloping winds should keep lows tomorrow night above freezing for most of the foothills, while the northern and easternmost plains should again see lows in the upper 20s-low 30s. Despite the good model agreement in below freezing temperatures across the plains Friday night, we have decided to hold off for now on issuing any frost or freeze products until we know tonight's low temperatures. Should a killing freeze hit tonight (low temps <= 28F), we would not issue another product; however, if lows don't quite reach that 28 degrees or less threshold, we may be looking at another frost/freeze product. Temperatures warm back up on Saturday as a ridge moves into the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s on Saturday as the ridge axis moves across the state, with southwest flow dominating on the upstream side of the ridge by Sunday, keeping temps on the warmer side through the first half of next week and pulling in some mid-level moisture. While conditions should stay dry over the plains and urban corridor, we can't rule out a few afternoon rain/snow showers over the higher terrain Sunday through Wednesday. Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions bring in our next trough Thursday or Friday. This far out, though, the timing of this system is highly uncertain, as is the location of the cutoff low/trough axis. We'll see how the models trend and see if there's any better agreement from run to run and across models as we get closer to the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/... Issued at 1133 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions expected throughout of the TAF period. North to northeasterly winds will hold on for another couple of hours as there is enough mixing due to cold air advection. Between 08-10Z, winds will become light out of the east and then will be light and variable for the rest of the night. Winds will stay light throughout the day Friday and will have an easterly component from the late morning through the afternoon. Friday night, drainage will develop and persist throughout the night. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...Danielson  966 FXUS66 KEKA 160737 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1237 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very dry conditions with gusty northeast winds focused in Lake County will increase fire danger today. * A warming trend peaking today with interior highs in the 90s. * Cold front most likely to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. 50% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast. && .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend will peak today , even for the coast where marine influence remains weak. Cooler and more moist conditions build by the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains over the area today bringing warm temperatures to the interior that are ten to fifteen degrees above normal. An upper level trough continues to drop south through the Great Basin and towards the southern CA coast. This is expected to bring another round of northeast winds to Lake and Mendocino counties this morning. These winds are expected to continue to bring drier air to the higher elevations. This offshore flow is expected to keep the marine clouds and fog mostly out of the area, although a few local areas of fog are possible. Hot weather is expected to continue in the inland areas today although the coast will be cooler than yesterday. For the weekend flow aloft becomes more zonal as a weather system moves by to the north of the area. This will drop inland temperatures each day and the marine clouds are expected to expand. Sunday high temperatures may struggle to reach 80 in the warmer valleys with cooler temperatures close to the coast. The potential for rain has now pushed back until Monday afternoon or Monday night. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of a wetting rain in Humbodlt and Del Norte counties by Tuesday morning. Farther south probabilities are lower, but there is still the potential for some rain. Some of the models show an upper level low bringing more rain farther south. As the previous system moves out of the area high pressure starts to build back into the area bringing a return of dry weather and how warm it will be. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are forecast to continue for terminals of Northwest California over this TAF period. Some of the higher resolution models are suggesting a rebuild of the marine layer early this morning, yet confidence is low (~25-30 %) leading to only scattered low level cluds. Winds are forecast to continue to be calm into the morning for the valleys with breezes up to 15mph continuing near the ridgelines, especially in eastern Lake and Mendocino counties. A more robust coastal stratus layer may develop tonight and into Saturday morning. && .MARINE...Light winds are expected to continue through this morning. The waves will remain dominated by a northwest swell and a more southerly swell. The northwest swell is around 5 feet at 12 seconds while the south to southwest swell is around 3 feet at 15 seconds. Friday afternoon northwesterly winds are expected to start building into the waters. These are expected to first increase in the southern waters and then expand north Friday night and Saturday. These are expected to be fairly shortlived and start to diminish on Sunday and especially Sunday night. Lighter winds are expected early next week and they may be southerly. Mid-week northerly winds are expected to increase again. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will peak Today. Interior highs will reach near 90 with RH sticking in the the teens. ERC values will return close to the 80th percentile, representing moderate to high fire danger. Said percentiles are near record breaking for the time of year but remain much lower than peak summer. Early this morning, thewinds are expected to continue over the ridges of eastern and southern Lake county so the Fire Weather Warning will conitnue for these locations. Northeast winds will weaken later today, but remain gusty along high ridges at least through the morning. Conditions will be exceptionally dry today in the wake of the winds with many interior locations seeing single digit RH. MKK/JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ418>420. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  554 FXUS61 KLWX 160750 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Gale Watch was upgraded to a Gale Warning for late tonight through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures. - 2) Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a potent positively tilted trough stretching from the great lakes down towards the Great Plains tracking eastward this morning. At the surface, the trough pushes a strong cold front across the forecast area this afternoon and into the evening. This morning, ahead of the front, cloud cover decreases allowing for sunny conditions and warm temperatures. Highs today rise into the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s. With warm conditions and sunny skies, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the passing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has the north east portions of the forecast area spreading from the Washington DC metro area to central MD and eastward, in a slight risk for severe weather today. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts with NE MD in a 30% probability for severe wind. Additionally, a quick QLCS tornado is possible, mainly in NE MD, where SPC has a 2% tornado risk. Precipitation lingers behind the cold front as the upper trough pivots overhead. Gusty winds remain possible beginning Friday night and persisting through Saturday. Winds will likely remain elevated, although higher elevations along the Alleghenies may have peak gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Areas are expected to remain below wind advisory criteria although a few isolated gusts along the ridges are possible. Noticeably cooler temperatures rush in behind the front with high temperatures on Saturday being approximately 25-30 degrees colder compared to Friday. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s across the forecast area with overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for early Sunday morning, mainly west of I-95 where winds will be lower. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals. Heading into next week, high pressure remains overhead through the middle of next week. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected during this time frame with near-normal temperatures for mid- October. Although a few global ensemble members depict a coastal low forming off the Mid-Atlantic shore early next week, most members maintain dry and seasonable weather. If this low pressure system were to move closer to the coast, chances for precipitation could change next week however confidence is low. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to IFR ceilings continue through early this morning before conditions improve to VFR. Foggy conditions continue at CHO this morning with patchy fog lingering across the other terminals. A strong cold front crosses the terminals this afternoon and into this evening, bringing a chance for thunderstorms, gusty winds and a wind shift. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during storms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds are the primary threat. Low clouds are possible again tonight with VFR conditions returning Saturday. For the winds, southwest winds this morning shift to northwest in the wake of the cold front. Winds remain out of the northwest on Saturday, gusting 20 to 30 knots. Winds diminish on Sunday with VFR conditions expected.VFR conditions are expected to persist for all terminals at the beginning of next week. Light northeasterly wind on Monday shifts northerly by Tuesday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories are in effect beginning at 9AM this morning across all waters with winds gusting 20 knots. A strong cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusty winds and a chance for thunderstorms. SMWs are possible as storms cross the waters later today. Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front tonight and increase to gusts around 34 knots. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for late tonight through Saturday. Winds shift to northeast on Sunday and are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Wind gusts remain below SCA criteria on Monday with light northeasterly winds. Northerly winds could approach SCA criteria on Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH AVIATION...AVS/KVH MARINE...AVS/KVH  174 FXUS63 KDTX 160743 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions (gusts 30-40 mph), periods of rain showers, and decreasing temperatures through the day. - Frost/freeze conditions are likely Saturday morning for portions of SE MI. - Dry with above normal temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... An cold front is in the process of clearing SE MI and will bring about breezy conditions, steadily falling temperatures, and periodic rain showers for today. The departure of low pressure from Michigan into Ontario and Quebec will have cold air advection ramp up through the day as low level flow backs from west to north-northwest. The advection of cooler air will greatly dampen or nullify the typical diurnal peak in temperatures this afternoon as they fall from the 50s-60s this morning into the 40s by the evening. This will be reinforced from a secondary cold front that will progress across SE MI late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Passage of this secondary frontal boundary will further increase mixing depths, producing breezy conditions with gusts ranging between 30-35 mph. Some isolated potential to 40 mph will be possible after the passage of the secondary cold front, but the absence of appreciable stronger wind speeds within the mixed layer lowers confidence for higher frequency gusts to 40+ mph. The exception will be within the Thumb given reduced surface friction along the lake as flow backs to the NNW. Retainment of appreciable low-level moisture wrapped in cyclonic flow coupled with shallow instability within the mixed layer will support drizzle and rain shower chances through the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage of rain showers will start to decrease in the evening hours for most locations as flow backs to the north, which cuts off the additive moisture advection derived from Lake Michigan. Consequently, coverage will likely increase around the Lake Huron shoreline once wind direction orients more favorably off of Lake Huron. The enhanced pocket of shallow instability coming off the lake will supplement moisture advection onshore. Notably stronger lapse rates extending through 700mb and positive buoyancy extending through the -10C isotherm could support more vigorous convective shower development and/or isolated thunderstorms, capable of producing small hail. Strong high pressure will rapidly build in from west to east overnight which will scour and advect out low-level stratus as dry air works in. Clear skies coupled with the early day cold air advection will bring chilly overnight lows. Efficient radiational cooling drop temperatures into the low to mid 30s, bringing high potential for patchy to widespread frost. The coldest temperatures will be found across the interior of SE MI through the Tri-Cities where temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are possible. Below normal temperatures hold tomorrow afternoon with highs capped in the low to mid 50s. High pressure then sets up and expands over the Midwest and Great Lakes next week which will bring an extended period of dry weather. Temperatures rebound back to above normal values in the mid to upper 60s, possibly low 70s, by the late week period. This will bring a period of idyllic fall weather under mostly clear skies for a greater portion of next week. && .MARINE... Deepening low pressure tracks across central/southern Lake Huron this morning before quickly departing east today. The system sends a strong cold front southward across the region with wind shifting to N/NNW in its wake. Cold advection over the lakes brings increasing instability through the day with lake effect showers and gusty northerly flow ensuing. The strongest core of winds aloft arrives late afternoon and this evening with gusts to gales up to 40 kt on Lake Huron, especially across the southern basin where fetch is maximized. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Farther south to Lakes St. Clair and Erie, brief gusts to 35 kt will be possible late this evening but expectation is for most gusts to hold near or below 30 kt given shorter fetch. Wind magnitude begins to subside after midnight and continues to weaken through Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure extends in from the Midwest. The ridge then quickly shifts into the Ohio Valley, pairing with a deep low over northern Ontario to produce a strong WSW pressure gradient over the local area late Saturday into Sunday. Sunday afternoon remains a target for potential gusts to gales over Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron. The high pressure then gradually expands northward to bring more tranquil marine conditions early next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 AVIATION... Surface low pressure is currently observed over the southern Lake Michigan basin, with local wind direction still out of the southeast ahead of the sfc warm front. Ongoing shower activity is tied to the elevated warm front sweeping through, while the surface warm front arrives in the next couple of hours and shifts winds to the southwest. This will also be accompanied by ceilings lowering to IFR and possibly flirting with LIFR briefly. The greatest cig/vsby restrictions are expected with the passage of the low overnight, which peels away around daybreak to support a gradual return to low MVFR conditions Friday morning. Winds veer to the west by Friday morning with a second wind shift to the NNW occurring in the afternoon as a post-frontal trough pivots through SE Michigan. Cold advection immediately behind this system affords a well-mixed boundary layer to preclude wind shear concerns, but results in gusty winds of 25 to 30 knots that persist tonight into Friday. A transition to VFR is then expected Friday evening-overnight, but will depend on the extent of lake moisture flux throughout the daytime hours. D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...AM MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  553 FXUS64 KMAF 160710 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Showers continue across the Big Bend this morning with localized flooding possible. - A cold front brings the threat for the first freeze of the season for portions of SE NM and the higher terrain. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will continue through this evening. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Windy conditions continue across the region this morning with many locations seeing gusts near 50 mph behind the strong cold front that moved through Thursday. Have expanded the Wind Advisory across the entire CWA through this afternoon, when winds should decrease rapidly. Strong gap winds may continue across the Guadalupe Mountains a bit longer where the High Wind Warning goes until midnight. Radar shows quite a bit of rain still across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos as moisture overrides the cool airmass. Rain rates have been pretty steady at about 0.25" per hour so any flooding should be kept to a minimum. Will keep the current Flood Watch out for now as any increase in convection will likely prompt a few warnings. Showers will move into Mexico and decrease by sunrise as drier air filters in from the north. Temperatures are much cooler this morning with most locations in the 50s. You'll want a jacket as you walk out the door as the wind will make it feel like it's in the 40s! This will be our coldest day since last spring as highs will only climb into the 50s to near 60 degrees. A few locations in the higher terrain may not make it out of the 40s due to cloud cover. Skies will begin to clear overnight as winds decrease making for a chilly Saturday morning. Lows will plummet into the 30s for many and could even reach the freezing mark in our cold favored spots (Lea County, Davis Mountains, and the Guadalupe Mountains)! Have issued a Freeze Watch for the above locations as this would be the first freeze of the early fall. Cooler conditions remain in place for Saturday with highs staying below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 After another chilly night and morning Sunday, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s/70s Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. A large upper trough is expected to develop to our west next week, but move very slowly east. This will place our region in southwesterly flow aloft for several days. Temperatures will climb back above normal as Gulf moisture slides back into our region. Rain chances stay near zero until midweek when mid level lift increases, especially over the far west. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions expected everywhere but FST which will be MVFR thru around 12Z before lifting. Gusty NE winds to 30-35KT continue for much of the period. No SHRA/TS will affect the terminals. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 43 58 41 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 39 57 39 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 36 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 32 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 52 34 55 34 / 30 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 37 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 37 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 37 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Central Lea-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...10  359 FXUS62 KRAH 160729 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 AM Friday... 1) Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. 2) There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. An increasingly-phased and high amplitude trough, apparent in GOES-E WV satellite data from nrn Hudson Bay to the cntl High Plains, will pivot across the ern US through late Sat-Sat night. A vigorous upper jet and front will accompany the trough, with a zone of strong and deep ascent that will overspread cntl NC tonight-Sat. At the surface, a backdoor front has drifted into the nrn Sandhills and the nw Piedmont this morning, about 20-30 miles farther swwd than previously forecast. While low overcast has developed within the pos-trontal regime and would typically slow/retard subsequent nwd retreat of the front, cooling behind the front and the related frontal inversion are not pronounced. Additionally, the MSL pressure pattern surrounding the front over the srn Middle Atlantic, between a 1021 mb high drifting off the coast of New England and a ~1019 mb one off the South Atlantic coast, appear to be reaching equilibrium this morning. As such, it remains likely that the front will retreat quickly nwd with the onset of diurnal heating, in strengthening flow and mass response ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone now deepening across MI. A pre-frontal, Appalachian- lee trough will sharpen across the nw Piedmont this afternoon and precede a strong cold front that will sweep across cntl NC tonight. A growing warm sector throughout cntl NC today will yield yet another day of record temperatures mostly between 85-90 F, accompanied by a gusty swly surface wind that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by midday-early afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along the pre-frontal trough over the nw Piedmont by ~21-22Z, in a regime of weak MLCAPE of generally less than 500 J/kg, but where instability will be relatively maximized as cooling temperatures aloft edge east of the Appalachians. The band of showers will spread ewd and across the remainder of cntl NC this evening, along and immediately following the passing cold front. Anafrontal precipitation character will become increasingly stratiform and probably blossom after midnight, as the intense mid and upper-level trough and jet, and deep zone of Fgen, overspread the Carolinas. The precipitation band will then edge from west to east across cntl NC during the day Sat, with storm total rainfall amounts mostly between a quarter and half inch. It will otherwise turn sharply cooler, with highs Sat 25-30 F below those of today and about 10-15 F below average. A strong and gusty nly wind will make it feel even cooler. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold Saturday and Sunday nights, with some patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. Aloft, it is looking increasingly likely a low will close off within the parent trough as it tracks sewd across the region and offshore Sat/Sat night, though there remain differences wrt where and when that will occur. The low will likely sit/meander near or just off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast through much of the week. At the surface, the ~1036 mb high should lift newd from the OH Valley to the Canadian Maritimes Sat night through Sun night, while the ridge continues to extend swwd across the region. A low is expected to develop offshore, along the front, on Sat before cutting off from the parent trough and deepening as it meanders off the Southeast US/Carolina coast through at least Sun night, possibly through much of the week. However, a good bit of uncertainty remains wrt to this low and its impacts for central NC. Expect breezy conditions on Sun, with a strong pressure gradient between the deepening low offshore and the ridge over the area. The LLJ could remain quite stout on the back (NW) side of the low offshore through Sun night, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible with mixing on Sun, highest east. The jet may be stronger overnight (25-40 kts) both nights and over a much larger area, but those stronger winds are generally not expected to mix down to the surface. Still, some gusts of 15-25 kts cannot be ruled out Sun night given the latest guidance showing a little mixing overnight. There remains a fair amount of spread in the statistical guidance between high and low members for temperatures from Sat night onward, given the uncertainty wrt the low offshore and subsequent impacts. For highs, Sunday should be the coolest day, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected. Highs should rebound a bit on Mon, but still remain below normal, with low to mid 60s forecast. For lows, with continued breezy conditions, generally decreasing cloud cover, and low-level thicknesses around 1320 dam Sat night, will err on the mean for lows, ranging from mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE. With partly cloudy skies, perhaps slightly less breezy conditions, and low-level thicknesses increasing to around 1335 dam Sun night, expect similar lows ranging from upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon morn. With the expected winds overnight/early morning, wind chill values in the low-mid 30s expected across much of the area Sat night, increasing slightly SE into the low 40s SE for Sun night. There could be some mid 30s lows in the usual cooler, sheltered areas of the Piedmont Sun and Mon mornings, especially if the skies clear out, possibly resulting in some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Friday... A backdoor front and post-frontal low overcast has drifted a little farther swwd than previously forecast and will result in LIFR-IFR ceilings at all cntl NC TAF sites except probably FAY this morning. The nwd retreat of the front across the Middle Atlantic today should cause the overcast to disperse and lift around 12Z, with following VFR conditions and gusty swly winds that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by early this afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along a pre-frontal trough invof INT/GSO by ~21-22Z, then linger until a cold front and gusty nwly surface winds moves through cntl NC later this evening-tonight. Outlook: An area of stratiform, anafrontal rain will blossom behind the passing cold front later tonight into Sat, with related low VFR to MVFR restrictions, as an intense upper-level trough and jet streak pivot toward the Carolinas. Surface winds will veer to nly and remain strong and gusty especially during the daytime through the weekend, in a tight MSL pressure gradient between strong high pressure that will build in from the west and coastal low pressure that will deepen and meander of the coast of the Carolinas. Should surface winds diminish as expected each night, a risk of low-level wind shear will exist both Sat and Sun night. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP AVIATION...MWS  285 FXUS63 KEAX 160727 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool and breezy day is expected today with highs in the low to mid 50s and northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The cold front has moved through the area and overnight cold air advection has been left in its wake. This cold air advection will continue through the day today making out during the late morning/early afternoon with northerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph. In addition, a upper level trough will move through the area today ushering in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. This coupled with the strong CAA will hold highs in the low to mid 50s. This evening a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area allowing winds to relax as the upper level trough shifts east allowing skies to clear tonight. This will create a good radiational cooling setup inviting the potential for the first freeze of the season across the northwestern and northern CWA and a first frost for much of the rest of the CWA. While this is not expected to be a hard or killing freeze with temperatures expected to fall into the low to mid 30s, any sensitive vegetation will need to be protected tonight. Tomorrow, the surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control providing for weak mixing. So, despite sunny skies, highs will hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Skies are expected to remain clear tonight night however, the surface ridge is expected to shift east of the area overnight. This will allow, light southerly winds to develop keeping temperatures from dropping below freezing however, patchy frost cannot be ruled out. Sunday, slight height rises coupled with modest WAA and sunny skies will drive highs back to seasonal normals in the mid to upper 60s. The extended period looks mostly quiet with broad upper level ridging for the first half of the work week becoming more amplified over the central CONUS in the second half of the work week. This will produce a warming trend through the week with temperatures on Monday starting the week slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, highs by Thursday and Friday will move well above normal rising into the mid 70s to mid 80s. The next slight chance (15-25%) for precipitation doesn't arrive until Friday as a upper level trough move out from the southwestern CONUS into the central/northern Plains weakening as it does. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs to continue eroding overnight with breezy NW winds about 10-15 kts with occasional gusts of 25 kts. Marginally MVFR cloud deck builds in from the north Friday morning with generally 15 kt NNW winds and gusts up to 30-35 kts during the day. Around sunset, winds will lighten and cloud cover will move out of the region, marking a return to VFR conditions late in the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Macko  638 FXUS65 KVEF 160752 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1252 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north to northeast winds this morning will diminish through the afternoon. * Precipitation chances return to the region early to middle of next week, with significant uncertainty in forecast and impact details. && .DISCUSSION...Through the Middle of Next Week. Through the overnight, gusty northeast winds were reports across portions of the area at times. The strongest winds were in the terrain with gusts over 40 MPH reported as higher elevations intercepted a 50KT+ 850-700mb jet. This lower level jet associated with a low pressure system sitting over southern California will remain draped over southern portions of the region through rest of tonight before slowly shifting south and weakening this morning. While gusts are fairly isolated at the moment, expecting a quick uptick in the valleys early this morning as better mixing occurs with sunrise as well as an area of better vorticity advection on the backside of the low. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 10AM this morning which looks good as additional minor wind impacts are possible with the uptick in winds after sunrise. Winds will diminish this afternoon as the low shifts south and weakens. Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH are expected this afternoon, then gusts under 20 MPH are expected through at least Monday. After a brief warm up to near normal today, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. Continuing to watch the potential for weather impacts around midweek as a deep West Coast trough impacts the region. Strong forcing will be associated with this deepening low, which some models have closing off as it moves into central or southern California. This forcing will interact with an uptick in moisture that advects into the region from distant Tropical Storm Simon ahead of the trough. Cluster analysis shows significant variation in how quickly the trough moves into the region as well as how deep it will be once it does so. In addition, models continue to advertise differing solutions on how an IVT plume sets up somewhere over southern Nevada or western Arizona. All that to say- there is significant uncertainty in the forecast details and potential impacts the middle of next week. It's fair to say precipitation is expected at some point after Monday, with snow possible above 8000-9000ft, but rain impacts will not be as significant as what just occurred with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. There also should be an increase in winds ahead of the trough, likely Tuesday, which could result in wind impacts. Low confidence though in exact timing of rain, where the highest impacts will occur, and how much snow to expect in the higher elevations.With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week when the system moves inland. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Clear skies with breezy to strong northerly winds last through the TAF period. There may be few hour period later tonight and into the early morning hours where gusts diminish, but expect sustained winds to remain elevated 6-12 kt. Strong northeast winds (020 to 040 deg) return around or after 16z with gusts approaching 30 kt during the afternoon and evening. Gusts and winds begin a diminishing trend during the evening, with gusts likely dropping off after sunset. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Clear skies and breezy conditions continue into Friday for most terminals. Strong North to Northeast winds with gusts over 30 kt at times persist into tonight forthe Colorado River Valley and LV Valley sites. KIFP and KEED keep strong gusts well into tomorrow while LV Valley sites may see a brief period of lighter winds late tonight into early tomorrow before increasing after 16z. Light and variable winds tonight for KBIH become southerly tomorrow afternoon gusting over 20 kt at times before sunset. KDAG will favor more of a NE to ENE direction with gusts also to 30 kt Friday afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  990 FXUS63 KLMK 160718 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front pushes through our area early this morning, and will bring breezy winds, falling temperatures, and scattered light rain showers as it passes. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with a chance for frost Sunday morning. * After today's light rain, dry weather is expected over the weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ===== Cold Front Passage Today ===== An upper level trough is situated over the central US this morning, and will be the driving force for a sfc low over the Great Lakes to eventually bring a cold front through our area later this morning. Early on, cloud cover is on the increase ahead of this boundary, which is expected to bring low stratus over the area by sunrise and through the morning hours. Temps have been holding steady this morning so far, with readings hovering in the mid-70s since last evening. However, SPC mesoanalysis shows the sfc boundary has passed through the St. Louis area, with KBLV showing a nearly 20F temperature drop in just 3 hours, showcasing the strong CAA following just behind this front this morning. Today will feature some interesting weather as the front passes through later on this morning. First, expect temps to drop throughout the day as CAA regime takes over with FROPA. Our highest temps of the day likely are occurring early this morning within the warmer pre- frontal airmass. Second, guidance supports this FROPA to feature an anafront, with the majority of precip occurring after the boundary pushes through. Mid-level vorticity max lags behind with the trough axis, displacing the better forcing aloft later this morning. Additionally, low level moisture will outrun the better forcing, leading to mainly light rain showers this morning, and lingering eats of I-65 this afternoon. Total QPF is expected to be less than 0.10" for most today. Our probabilistic precip forecast has a general 30% chance of exceeding 0.1" today, and less than a 15% of exceeding 0.25". Third, winds will become quite breezy today due to the compact sfc pressure gradient with the frontal passage. NW wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible, and will also boost the CAA infiltration. ===== Cooler Fall Air Finally Arrives This Weekend ===== With the help of the FROPA today, we'll finally break the hold that the above normal temperatures had on our region and start feeling some seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Upper ridging and a large dome of high pressure will expand across the central US, and with our cooler post-frontal airmass in place, much cooler temps are expected over the weekend and into next week. High pressure will keep us dry over the next several days as well. Expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, though a touch warmer on Sunday with temps peaking into the 60s. The main feature to keep tabs on over the weekend will be the high potential for frost Sunday morning with morning lows forecast down into the 30s. No Frost Advisory yet with this forecast package, but confidence seems high enough that we'll eventually need one sometime before Saturday night. Temperatures will gradually climb back into the low 70s by late next week. There are no precip chances through next week as sfc high pressure keeps a strong hold over a large portion of the country. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions are across the region early this morning. However, expect conditions to deteriorate through the morning as a cold front approaches. We'll see cigs lower to MVFR and below fuel alternate by sunrise this morning. Accompanied by these lower cigs will be increasing rain chances and gusty NW winds, with gusts up to 25kts possible for the daylight hours. These impacts to flight cats will continue through the early afternoon, but will eventually see conditions improve back to VFR later in the day as the front slides east of the region. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJP AVIATION...CJP  613 FXUS63 KFSD 160752 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers/sprinkles swing southeast prior to daybreak, mainly along and east of a De Smet to Sioux Falls to Spencer, Iowa line. Any accumulations will be minimal. - Strong northwest winds continue this morning, with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph. Brief gusts of 45-55 mph may accompany the light showers early. Winds taper down Friday afternoon. - Moderate to high (over 70%) chance of widespread frost tonight to early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s. - Freeze Warning has been issued for some areas along and east of Highway 59 where confidence is highest in a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures. Freeze Watch remains in effect where confidence is moderate-high that temperatures may briefly dip near 32F or below. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Spotty light showers/sprinkles continue to swing southeast through Minnesota and eastern South Dakota early this morning, just moving into far northern Iowa as of 230 AM. Most locations will see a few sprinkles at best, but where low level moisture is a bit deeper, a more concentrated area of light showers will give portions of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa a few hundredths of an inch. A narrow secondary band of cold advection is moving in along and just behind these showers/sprinkles. This combination could aid in briefly pulling gusts in excess of 45 mph to the surface through the pre-dawn hours. However, not seeing the stronger gusts remain persistent upstream across northeast SD/eastern ND. As such, will continue to hold off issuing a broader Wind Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor upstream trends, though, and if stronger gusts become more persistent, may need to hoist a short-term wind headline into this morning. Attention then turns to frost/freeze potential tonight into early Saturday morning. Previous shift expanded the Freeze Watch farther west which still seems reasonable. Main question in this area is whether the surface ridge will move east quickly enough to allow an uptick in south winds. This will support a non-diurnal rebound in temperatures late tonight and limit potential for sub-freezing temperatures. The NBM low temperatures remain colder than most raw guidance for temperatures overnight, with even the raw guidance showing a greater chance of sub-freezing temps in our eastern two tiers of counties where winds remain light through much of the overnight. For this reason, opted to join eastern neighbors in upgrading our far east to a Freeze Warning tonight into Saturday morning, while leaving the Freeze Watch in place where confidence is still lower farther west. It should be noted that the current Freeze Watch area, and even areas farther west, still have a very good chance at seeing frost development at some point during the night, so those with sensitive outdoor vegetation will likely need to take some precautions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lower VFR and MVFR stratus continue overnight into mid to late Friday morning. Scattered showers are expected along and northeast of a KHON/KFSD/KSPW line, but confidence is too low in coverage for inclusion at KHON/KFSD. These could bring some lower MVFR stratus. Showers exit just after daybreak. Skies clear through the day Friday, with VFR conditions for the afternoon into the night. Main focus of the period is on the strong northwesterly winds through the overnight hours. Guidance is generally split on the timing of the stronger gusts overnight and into Friday morning, likely due to LLJ timing differences between models. Have kept winds/gusts fairly similar to previous, with a shift in the stronger winds for KSUX into the later morning Friday. Gusts 30 to 35 knots are expected, with strongest gusts into the early overnight and across south central SD. May also see some stronger gusts into the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge overnight, around or above 35 knots. Winds taper down through the day on Friday, becoming light and variable in the evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for SDZ050-057- 063. MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MNZ071-072-080-097-098. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ081-089- 090. IA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for IAZ001-012-020-031. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ002-003- 013-014-021-022-032. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  322 FXUS64 KHUN 160746 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cooler conditions return tonight into the weekend after a cold front brings low chances (10-20%) of showers to portions of the area this afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Clear and tranquil conditions early this morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface still in control and just some localized, patchy fog noted along the Paint Rock and Flint River Valleys. This will change later today as a stout upper trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will amplify and push a cold front through the Mid South and Tennessee Valley from late this morning into the afternoon/evening. The main impact with this system will be the strong, gusty winds thanks to a very tight pressure gradient that will shift to the NW to north in wake of the frontal passage. These northerly winds between 15-25 MPH will help to advect in a notably cooler, drier air mass. This can be seen with the temperature spread across the area, with mid to upper 70s forecast west of I-65 and lower 80s east of I-65. Dense cloud cover and some virga will likely accompany the frontal passage, with the forcing from the front likely generating some very low (10-20%) chances for rain showers later today. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s after the front shifts southeast of the area and sfc high pressure funnels in. The aforementioned wind gusts and overall dry air mass will prevent any risk of fog formation. Saturday will bring continued gusty conditions along with much cooler temperatures than we've been experiencing- keeping highs in the 60s. Saturday night, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to lower 40s and winds should lighten back into the 5-10 mph range. Frost is not currently anticipated, but will be monitored in future updates. Be sure to dress in layers this weekend if you have outdoor plans! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front will bring cloud cover and strong, gusty NW winds in its wake on Friday, with gusts between 15 to 25 MPH from the late morning through the afternoon/evening. Low stratus will develop late in the period, with MVFR conditions developing after 00z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...AMP  930 FXUS62 KMHX 160759 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 359 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal low development becoming more likely, although uncertainty still exists on strength, location, and track. Wind gusts and wave heights increased with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Patchy dense fog along and south of hwy 70 this morning 2) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 3) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore. 4) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Watch in effect along with prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1..A stratus deck along a stationary back door cold front is spread through much of the region. Just south of this stratus deck, clear skies, low level moisture, and light to calm winds is providing ideal conditions for fog formation. Observations have consistently been at 1/4 miles in Onslow, Duplin, and southern Craven counties. While no observation sites are in the area, it is likely patchy dense fog is also occuring in Jones and Carteret counties. A SPS is in effect for patchy dense fog this morning in the aforementioned counties. KEY MESSAGE 2...Back door cold front shifts back north today and flow becomes southwesterly through the CWA. If the stratus breaks up early in the morning, we should have another near record warm day for ENC as temps soar into the upper 80s inland. (record high climate section below). However, if the cloud cover this morning lingers, we could have a delayed start to the heating and temps could max out in the mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front will be passing through the region Saturday, stalling offshore along the Gulf Stream. A coastal low forming offshore along this front is becoming more likely, but there is still high uncertainty on where/when the low forms, how deep it gets, and where it tracks. While there are still three main camps as far as solutions go, confidence is trending up that a coastal low will form. Once the low forms out over the gulf stream there are three main steering paths that models are hinting at right now. The most likely scenario at this time remains that the low forms and stays over the gulf stream picking up strengths as it does so but remains in a fairly constant longitudinal range offshore. This will result in minor to low end moderate impacts to our NC coastline, as strong NE winds paired with a low deepening offshore bring minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding, beach erosion, and overwash concerns. The next likely outcome is the low develops right along the coast and holds it there for a much more prolonged event. Should this solution play out, we could be looking at a long duration of strong NE winds and high seas. This outcome would result in moderate impacts to the NC coastline. In addition, the track of the low would have to be monitored in case it shifts back west towards eastern NC. There is still considerable spread in the location and intensity details for models showing this outcome. Finally, the least likely outcome is the low either not develops at all or develops it much later and much further east than any of the other scenarios. With a strong high building in, we would still see strong NE winds, albeit for a shorter duration, and elevated waves bringing minor coastal impacts. Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 8+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Hatteras Island and northern OBX. Winds advisory potential continues for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow. KEY MESSAGE 4...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours. A slow moving or stalled cold front is bringing widespread low stratus and/or fog to the region. CIGs will quickly improve once the front moves back north in the morning, but guidance differs on how quickly this transition will occur. Once the front is to the north of any TAF site, then VFR conditions should prevail. On Friday, southerly winds will become gusty at times, with gusts to 20kt likely. Outlook (Sat through Mon): Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show continuing W/SW winds 5-10 knots with seas mainly 2-3 ft. A back door cold front lifts back north today, with SW winds steadily increasing ahead of a cold front moving through the region Saturday. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Gale Watches have been converted to gale Warnings beginning 15Z Saturday for all waters except the southern rivers. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Neuse River, as probs of gale force gusts have increased. SCA has been issued for the Pamlico/Pungo rivers. Probabilities indicate high confidence in Gale Force Winds but likely not achieving consistent storm storm force gusts. However, it is worth noting that the wind forecast has trended up a tad, and the forecast is now at the high end of gale force gusts for offshore waters (20-60nm). Further increases in gust forecast would put us at Storm Force thresholds. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft in 0-20nm zones, increasing to 10-20 ft in 20-60nm zones along the Gulf Stream later this weekend. Duration of strong wind gusts and high waves is uncertain at this point and will likely bounce above and below the threshold well into next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning for AMZ137. && $$ DISCUSSION...RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...RJ  812 FXUS62 KMLB 160700 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Rain chances rise today, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible. - Breezy to windy conditions develop behind a passing front Saturday afternoon and continue through the weekend into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...A cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. today pushing high pressure north of the area farther east. Winds weaken and will be somewhat variable today, with the east coast sea breeze developing into the afternoon and winds along the coast becoming onshore and increasing to 5-10 mph. Moisture continues to build northward across the area with PW values around 2.0" across the area today. This will lead to greater rain chances today (around 50-70%), with scattered showers and storms developing primarily into the afternoon and evening. However isolated to scattered coastal showers will be possible this morning. Temps remain relatively warm aloft (around -6C at 500mb), but there will be some pockets of drier air aloft, with DCAPE values around 500-800 J/kg that may still lead to a few stronger storms today. Main threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. Slow storm motion toward the N-NE and moist airmass in place may lead to locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches from any storms or heavier showers. This may lead to mostly minor flooding, but with saturated ground conditions can't completely rule out an isolated instance of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall exits across much of the area today. Temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s inland. More humid conditions today will also produce peak heat index values around 98-102F. Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Thursday...Cold front pushes southward through the area Saturday, with north-northeast winds becoming breezy to windy into the afternoon. Sustained winds look to increase to 15-20 mph inland and up to 20-25 mph along the coast, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. While a Wind Advisory for portions of the coast can't be completely ruled out for Saturday afternoon, better potential exists along the coast into Saturday night and across much of the area Sunday, as northeast winds increase further from tightening pressure gradient between strong high building in north of the stalled front south of the area. Gusts up to 35-40 mph (potentially slightly higher along the coast) will be possible. A tight pressure gradient will continue through early to middle portion of next week, as cut-off low develops a strong area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, maintaining breezy to windy NE winds across the region. This prolonged period of increased onshore flow, will lead to hazardous coastal conditions. Rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will be present at all area beaches. Entering the water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will also likely contribute to moderate beach erosion through multiple high tide cycles. High coverage of showers and isolated to scattered storms willcontinue into Saturday with the passing front, with highest rain chances southeast of the I-4 corridor. As flow veers onshore persistent shower bands or storms may still lead to a risk of flooding, mainly along the Treasure Coast into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall persists for this region tomorrow. Drier air works in behind the front lowering PW values below 1.5" by Sunday, but the strong NE breeze will still generate rounds of scattered onshore moving showers Sunday and through much of next week, with greatest potential for rain across the coastal counties. A few storms pushing onshore will also be possible, mainly south of the Cape. It will turn cooler behind the front into the weekend with highs falling as low as the the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday and Monday, and then some gradual warming is forecast. Overnight lows drop into the 60s, but along the immediate coast the stronger NE breeze may keep min temps in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue through tonight before this weekend's cold frontal passage. Onshore winds weaken today as high pressure north of the region continues eastward ahead of the approaching front. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 knots today, with wind direction veering to the S/SW into tonight. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Onshore moving scattered showers and isolated storms will continue south of the Cape through early this morning, with coverage increasing and building northward over the coastal waters past sunrise. A few offshore moving storms producing gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning strikes will also be possible into the afternoon/evening. Saturday-Tuesday...Cold front pushes southward across the waters Saturday, with rapidly deteriorating conditions behind the boundary. N/NE winds quickly increase to 20-30 knots behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. A Gale Watch has been issued across the Volusia County waters starting at 11 AM Saturday and expands to the Brevard waters at 2 PM tomorrow afternoon. Gale conditions then make take a longer time to work their way southward into the Treasure Coast waters (maybe not until late Saturday night/Sunday), so for now have issued a Small Craft Advisory for this portion of the waters starting late afternoon Saturday. A strong NE breeze then persists Sunday into at least Monday, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast to continue. Seas also quickly build behind the front to 10-15 feet through Saturday night, with seas remaining elevated around these heights through early next week. High coverage of showers and storms will continue into Saturday, with repeated rounds of gusty scattered showers pushing southwest across the waters and onshore behind the front through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A few storms will continue to be possible as well behind the front, mainly south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Lingering showers across coast from Cape Canaveral southward tonight, with additional showers across the Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the Atlantic waters through tonight, with some showers making it along the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Have lingering VCSH/VCTS from VRB southward through tonight. Otherwise, mostly dry elsewhere, with light ESE winds at the terminals overnight. Winds become more variable across the interior Friday, while the ECSB causes winds to remain out of the ESE along the coast. Have maintained VCSH/VCTS at coastal terminals after 17Z, expanding to the interior sites after 18Z. Confidence remains too low to include TEMPOS/PROB30s at this time, but will continue to evaluate next TAF package. Lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the area after 01Z across the interior, and after 04Z along the coast. Winds will then become light and variable Friday evening and overnight, remaining ESE along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 71 79 66 / 60 40 40 10 MCO 91 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 MLB 87 72 83 69 / 70 50 70 40 VRB 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60 LEE 90 72 78 63 / 40 20 30 10 SFB 90 73 80 66 / 70 40 30 10 ORL 90 74 81 67 / 70 40 40 10 FPR 88 72 85 69 / 70 50 80 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ550-570. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson  829 FXUS63 KGID 160735 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 235 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-Freezing temperatures likely tonight-Saturday morning across the area. A Freeze Watch is in effect 1-9am. - Highs in the 50s today with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph this morning, strongest across northeastern portions of the area. - After a cold start to the day on Saturday, temperatures climb back into the 60s Saturday/Sunday. - Seasonably warm and largely dry weather expected next week with highs climbing into the 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 It's a chilly and windy morning across the area. Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the low 40s with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph. As the back edge of the departing trough/low swings over the area this morning, low stratus with a few embedded showers will slide across northeastern portions of the area. Any rain from these showers will be little more than sprinkles, but showers could bring gustier winds to the surface. Any sprinkles should come to an end by the mid morning hours (9-10am). Northerly winds gusting 30-45mph are expected to continue throughout the morning hours, with the strongest gusts across east/northeastern portions of the area. Winds steadily drop off this afternoon as the deepening low over the Midwest moves into the eastern U.S. and a high pressure system sets up over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected today with highs topping out in the low 50s. Skies will be partly-mostly cloudy to start the day, with skies becoming clear by the late afternoon-early evening. Under the influence of a seasonably cool airmass, clear skies, and light winds, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. This will result in the seasons first freeze across the area. The freeze watch will likely be converted to a freeze warning later today as confidence is fairly high in widespread sub-freezing temperatures (26-31 degrees) tonight-Saturday morning. Can't rule out northwestern portions of the area climbing back above freezing by sunrise as warm air advection moves into the area, though at least a few hours of sub-freezing temperatures are still favored for these locations. After a cold start to the day, temperatures climb back towards normal by the afternoon with highs in the low 60s. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours, gusting 20-35mph. Temperatures dip back into the upper 30s Sunday morning, though frost/freezing conditions are not anticipated. Breezy and seasonable weather continues Sunday with highs in the 60s. Otherwise the forecast remains on track through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures steadily climb throughout next week with highs in the 70s-low 80s by the middle-end of the week. Largely dry weather is anticipated through the middle of next week though can't completely rule out some low PoPs as disturbances move through the southwesterly flow aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Largely VFR conditions favored, with a window of MVFR CIGs possible 11-17z. Low stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR from the north during the early morning hours. This SCT-BKN stratus will range from 020-050. Have included a TEMPO group during the time when model guidance most favors MVFR potential. MVFR CIGs move away by the late morning hours, with skies clearing during the afternoon. LLWS will persist through the mid-morning hours. Northerly winds sustained 15-20kts and gusting 25-30kts are expected through the late morning hours. Winds steadily-quickly drop off during the afternoon hours, with winds becoming light and variable after sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Davis  772 FXUS63 KICT 160734 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler air will arrive across the area today while lingering through the weekend with frost/freeze potential for much of the area Sat morning. - Moderating temperatures are expected this week with a chance for showers late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Much colder air was arriving over the area early this morning with strong H85 caa underway. Afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in some areas. The highest wind speeds are expected through the morning hours while gradually subsiding as we move through the day as the sfc pressure gradient gradually diminishes. A ridge of high pressure at the sfc is progged to settle over the area tonight bringing light winds under mostly clear conditions. This will result in robust radiational cooling leading to areas of frost tonight into Saturday morning with the first freeze of the season for parts of central/south central KS. The freeze watch was expanded southward to include most of central and parts of south central KS where lows in the upper 20s/around 30 are anticipated. Southerly winds will return to central KS on Saturday allowing temperatures to quickly moderate with highs returning to the lower 60s while another day of upper 50s is anticipated across much of eastern Kansas. A stable and tranquil weather regime is anticipated through early next week as the upper level pattern transitions to a SW mid/upper flow regime early in the week with breezy southerly winds lingering. Seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with above average temperatures persisting through the end of the work week with highs around 80. Some low pops were maintained late in the week as some subtle shortwave troughs ridge over the mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS, but confidence in widespread wetting precipitation remains fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs as surface high pressure builds southward. Northwest winds will increase for late tonight and remain gusty through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish around sunset on Friday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>051-067. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...CDJ