744 FXUS64 KBMX 160500 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Friday evening, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 This evening we have a cold front extending from the Great Lakes SWWD to AR and swinging back into Central TX. This front should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area on Friday. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon and evening. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before the front moves through, we will still see enough warming Friday for max temps to be above normal going into the 80s. The exception may be in the far NW counties where there will be less time to heat up before the front arrives where it may not get out of the 70s. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Friday afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for many on Friday night and for all Saturday/Sunday nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry with Eastern Conus surface ridging. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for most tonight with surface ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds. The exception will be at TCL/MGM where some patchy ground fog may occur in the pre- dawn hours through shortly after sunrise. I have a TEMPO from 9-13z for this. Otherwise, a front will be moving through the area on Friday. Winds will shift to W then NW during the day as it move through. Some may be gusty during the afternoon. May not shift at AUO until the end of the period though. There is a low probability of a rain shower, but as overall moisture is limited will forgo mention in TAFs ATTM. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area Friday into Friday evening leading to gusty winds, isolated light showers, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 84 47 65 / 0 20 10 0 Anniston 63 85 47 65 / 0 20 10 0 Birmingham 64 84 48 65 / 0 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 63 86 49 68 / 0 20 10 0 Calera 63 85 48 65 / 0 20 10 0 Auburn 64 84 50 67 / 0 20 20 0 Montgomery 64 87 51 69 / 0 20 20 0 Troy 63 86 49 68 / 0 20 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  740 FXUS64 KHUN 160500 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Cooler conditions return Friday into the weekend after a cold front brings low chances (10-15%) of showers to portions of the area Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main talking point in the near term is a cold front approaching the Tennessee Valley tonight from the northwest. An upper level trough stemming from the Great Lakes region will bring the subsequent cold front to the area by Friday morning into the afternoon. Accompanying this, a 50 kt LLJ will allow gusty winds up to 20-30 mph along and behind the front Friday into Saturday. While the frontal passage will be mostly dry, CAMs have hinted at a very low chance (15% or less) of some shower development along and east of I-65. However, we will likely see more virga than showers as a dry atmospheric profile continues to exist toward the surface. If showers do form, no thunderstorms are anticipated as lapse rates and instability remain very weak. Be sure to secure any loose outdoor items if you have not already done so! Otherwise, temperatures should remain capped in the 70s through most of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s after the front shifts southeast of the area and sfc high pressure funnels in. The aforementioned wind gusts and overall dry air mass will prevent any risk of fog formation. Saturday will bring continued gusty conditions along with much cooler temperatures than we've been experiencing- keeping highs in the 60s. Saturday night, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to lower 40s and winds should lighten back into the 5-10 mph range. Frost is not currently anticipated, but will be monitored in future updates. Be sure to dress in layers this weekend if you have outdoor plans! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front will bring cloud cover and strong, gusty NW winds in its wake on Friday, with gusts between 15 to 25 MPH from the late morning through the afternoon/evening. Low stratus will develop late in the period, with MVFR conditions developing after 00z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...AMP.24  758 FXUS65 KCYS 160500 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread hard freeze is expected across both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Precipitation is tapering off across the area early this afternoon as the system continues to push eastward. With clouds clearing, visible satellite is revealing snowfall in the mountains as well as around the Arlington area and in the Laramie Valley. Temperatures outside of the mountains in these areas will reach the low 40s this afternoon, so some melting is likely. For the eastern half of the forecast area, gusty winds continue. Observations show 30 to 50 MPH wind gusts along the Interstate 25 corridor and eastward into the Nebraska panhandle. Despite temperatures here being in the 40s and 50s, the strong north winds are making for a chilly day. Winds will gradually weaken later this evening, but the cold will remain. Models have clouds clearing out overnight, with winds becoming calm across southeast Wyoming. With clear skies and calm winds, effective radiational cooling will take place, especially in areas with snow cover. Freeze Warnings are already in place for southeast Wyoming. Lows are expected to drop into the 20 to 25 degree range, with the potential for a few isolated teens in valleys, snow covered, or sheltered locations. It is worth mentioning that these conditions could produce some areas of patchy fog. The Nebraska panhandle was upgraded to a Freeze Warning with this forecast package. Despite the breezier conditions, a reinforcing shot of cold air from a Canadian trough will graze the Nebraska panhandle, dropping temperatures below 30 degrees. It is worth mentioning that many models were likely not capturing the cooling effectively, so nudged overnight lows towards the NBM 25th percentile. Looking at a pretty quiet day on Friday as upper-level ridging begins to build over the Rockies. It'll start out cold and frosty, but temperatures will gradually warm up throughout the day as warmer air aloft is ushered in. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees below average, with temperatures generally in the 50s across the forecast area. Areas with snow cover could be cooler, namely the Laramie Valley. Even though temperatures will be on the seasonably cool side, ample sunshine throughout the day will help cut through some of the chill. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward overnight on Friday, mid- level winds will become more westerly. The westerly winds will pose a possible concern for high winds in the typical southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and Bordeaux during the day Saturday. MSLP gradients will steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. CAG to CPR 850 mb gradients also reach the 50 meter range, signaling the potential for gradient driven marginal high winds in the wind prones. 700 mb winds will reach about 40 kts, but subsidence is rather weak and will likely not play a huge role in the winds Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH will be likely during the day Saturday and into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals for the duration of this TAF period. There is a slight chance that FZFG may develop overnight at KLAR, however confidence is low and kept any mention out of the TAF for this forecast issuance. Breezy northerly winds at KCYS and KSNY may continue for several more hours before subsiding to less than 10 knots overnight. Expect these lighter winds to continue into and through Friday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ101-102-104>111- 113-115>119. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ002-003-019>021- 054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  570 FXUS63 KIND 160511 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 111 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of showers and few thunderstorms crossing southeastern central Indiana through the early overnight - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph late tonight into Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Triple point of baroclinic system will continue to steadily cross east-central Indiana through the late evening...while warm sector occupying central Indiana's far southern/southeastern zones will continue to promote showers and an isolated t-storm, although with a quickly fleeting non-zero severe threat...with better wind shear around the system occlusion to the northwest of Indianapolis, offset from lingering instability mainly under 1000 J/kg well to the south. Cold front pushing main line of convection east...will usher in winds veering to west-northwest through the overnight before increasing to at least 10-15 mph with gusts increasing to 20-30 mph by daybreak. Patchy, transient mist will clear out by 06Z on the increasing flow. Noticeably drier, and almost seasonable dewpoints to arrive by dawn, with temperatures in the upper 40s west and northwest of Marion County...and lows down to the mid-50s for southeastern zones. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon through Friday Night... Current surface analysis depicts a low pressure system approaching from the west while an associated warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are now beginning to push into central Indiana. Additional convective development can be expected as the disturbance pushes across the area later today into tonight. Surface observations suggest the warm front is near far southern portions of central Indiana where dewpoints are now in the lower 70s. The warm front will continue lifting northward towards the I-70 corridor. Low-level theta-e advection combined with diurnal heating is expected to promote MLCAPE values of 750 to as high as 1250 J/KG locally later this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile aloft, a mid-level jet streak from the parent trough continues to shift eastward promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Increasing deep-layer shear in addition to modest destabilization could result in isolated severe thunderstorms. Effective shear values exceeding 40 kt are expected which favors the potential for supercells or organized storm clusters. Enlarging low-level veering hodographs from the warm front lifting north could support isolated tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts also appear possible with organized storm clusters. One caveat limiting confidence for the overall severe weather threat is uncertainty on the degree of low-level buoyancy. Forecast soundings from the latest CAMs depict poor lapse rates and relatively long-skinny CAPE profiles. This suggest updraft strength may be limited. However, even weak to modest low-level buoyancy in the favorable kinematic environment could support isolated damaging wind gusts or tornadoes so mesoscale trends will be monitored closely. Modest instability will greatly limit the threat for severe hail though sub-severe hail still appears possible. Expect a cold front to move through late tonight advecting cooler- drier air into the area. Look for precipitation chances to diminish from west to east during the late overnight. Increasingly breezy conditions are likely due to a tightening pressure gradient behind the departing front and steepening low-level lapse rates. Wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph should be common into Friday with sporadic gusts as high as 40 mph. Steepening lapse rates and marginal low- level moisture ahead of a backdoor cold front moving through late Friday will promote scattered convective showers. The parent mid- upper level trough overhead by this point should provide additional forcing for convection. Scattered lingering showers are possible early Friday night, mainly across northwest portions of central Indiana, before the aforementioned system shifts further east. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Friday night due to the additional shot of cooler air. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in sheltered locations into Saturday morning, but breezy conditions should mostly limit the threat elsewhere. Saturday through the middle of next week... A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings 07Z-19Z - Wind shifts to NW early in the period. - Wind gusts to 30kt after 15Z. Discussion: Much of the area is within a brief period of VFR between two weak confluence boundaries. A cold front will quickly push to the E/SE tonight shifting winds from SW to NE. Cold air advection and trapped lower level moisture will provide MVFR cigs across Central Indiana later tonight through 15Z, with some lifting likely within diurnal heating in the afternoon. Winds will be brisk after frontal passage, sustained between 12-15kt with gusts nearing 30kt after 15Z. Friday night, winds will shift towards northerly with gusts waning. Scattered showers will be possible at KLAF. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...White/Melo  497 FXUS64 KSJT 160511 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. - A brief frost is possible across low lying areas of West Central Texas Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Rainfall rates have gradually decreased across West Central Texas, with most of the moderate rain decreasing to just at this point. Models show this trend should continue through the early morning hours, likely lingering across the southern counties past sunrise before completely ending by mid to late morning. Flash Flood Watch runs through 12Z and should be able to end it early as the rain continues to wane and the threat ends. Strong surface pressure gradient will continue through the day today and wind gusting over 40 mph remain possible. Boosted wind speeds in the forecast slightly, and will let the Wind Advisory already in effect continue. Much cooler today behind the cold front. Some of the models hold temperatures in the mid/upper 50s so not going to argue with the model blends showing highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area, depending on how long the cloud cover ends up lingering across the area. Wind speeds should decrease after sunset, but may not completely drop off. This will allow readings to drop overnight, even though Sunday morning will likely be the better radiational cooling night. Wet soils may have an effect as well. Still, the coolest readings since the middle of April are possible Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area of light to occasionally moderate rain continues to gradually decrease across West Central Texas terminals early this morning. This trend should continue into the early morning hours and mainly end before sunrise. Otherwise, MVFR cigs and gusty north to northeast winds will prevail through sunrise. The winds will continue through the day today, eventually decreasing after sunset. Wind gusts above 25 knots are likely, perhaps above 30 knots at times. The MVFR cigs will lift to VFR this morning and then eventually scatter out during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 61 40 61 37 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 62 41 62 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brownwood 6242 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 59 40 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 59 40 59 38 / 30 0 0 0 Brady 60 41 60 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07  845 FXUS64 KSJT 160501 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1201 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances continue to bring increased rain chances, along with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the area through Friday. This airmass brings ample moisture and precipitable water values to the area today, making for very efficient rain-producing storms. The heavy rainfall from these systems bring the threat of Flash Flooding to much of West Central Texas today through early Friday morning, mainly across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and northeastern portions of the Heartland. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through early Friday morning for these areas, and there is a decent chance that Flash Flood Advisories and Warnings will be issued this afternoon through this evening when the heavy rainfall starts impacting areas across West Central Texas. With that said, please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned to our forecast for updated information on this event. Much of West Central Texas is outlooked today by WPC in a Moderate to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with the Northern Edwards Plateau being the focus of the Moderate Risk area through tonight. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches possible. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected this afternoon through Friday. Northerly winds from 15 to 30 mph are expected, with higher gusts as high as 45 mph are possible overnight tonight through Friday. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for 1 AM to 7 PM Friday for all of West Central Texas for these gusty winds. As for the temperatures, expect overnight lows tonight to fall into the 50s, and highs on Friday to struggle surpassing the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area of light to occasionally moderate rain continues to gradually decrease across West Central Texas terminals early this morning. This trend should continue into the early morning hours and mainly end before sunrise. Otherwise, MVFR cigs and gusty north to northeast winds will prevail through sunrise. The winds will continue through the day today, eventually decreasing after sunset. Wind gusts above 25 knots are likely, perhaps above 30 knots at times. The MVFR cigs will lift to VFR this morning and then eventually scatter out during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0 San Angelo 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0 Junction 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0 Brownwood 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0 Sweetwater 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0 Ozona 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0 Brady 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07  787 FXUS64 KAMA 160516 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Breezy conditions expected through the night tonight and through most of the day Friday with wind gusts reaching up to 40 mph. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to reach or dip below freezing for much of the combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The upper level, cutoff low has been ingested by the larger upper level trough and is continuing to move eastward. Winds at the surface are going to continue to be northerly and breezy. The strongest winds have subsided, though there is still potential for a few gusts to reach 40 mph through Friday. The strongest winds are expected to be in the southeastern TX Panhandle. Dry conditions have returned as precipitation has moved out of the area as the trough moves east and are expected to continue through Saturday. Winds will be calmer on Saturday, however, the northwestern combined Panhandles may be a bit breezier than the rest of the region, with sustained winds reaching up around 20 mph. Saturday morning temperatures are expected to be below freezing for much of the combined Panhandles and areas expected to reach or dip below freezing are under a freeze watch. Confidence is increasing for the issuance of a freeze warning. Abdullayev/Meccariello/Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Temperatures through the weekend and into next week look to steadily increase as a ridge sets up and dominates the upper level synoptic pattern. A cutoff low will setup over the Southwest US and will work with the ridge to switch our winds from northerly to southwesterly, aiding in the warm up. By midweek, high temperatures are expected to return to the upper 70s and low 80s. A shortwave trough is continuing to be analyzed by some operational models, bringing a low potential for some spotty showers Tuesday afternoon and night. Confidence is low at this time, but low PoPs have been included for that period to reflect the possibility. Temperatures also look to decrease upon the passing of this shortwave. Otherwise, the next major weather system being watched is a deep trough that will come off the Pacific Ocean and race eastward. Current initializations of this system show the Panhandles in a favorable location for precipitation. However, due to how far out this is, exact track and depth of the trough is not very well known and will be watched over the next several days. Abdullayev/Meccariello/Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites. Northerly winds will remain breezy until later tomorrow afternoon. 30 KTS of LLWS is expected at KAMA and KGUY for a brief period, and is possible at KDHT around the same times, though confidence is too low to add to TAFs. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52  687 FXUS65 KGJT 160514 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1114 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions and below seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas tonight and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. - Unsettled weather returns mid to late next week with potential for mountain snow and valley rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 FREEZE POTENTIAL: As the trough moves further east over the Midwest, high pressure builds behind over the Great Basin and Intermountain West forming a Rex Block heading into Friday with northerly flow over the region. Much colder air mass settles over the region tonight with lows in the 20s for the northwest Colorado valleys (Yampa River Basin) where a widespread hard freeze appears likely. Other areas in a Freeze Warning tonight include the upper Colorado River valley (COZ008) from Glenwood to Avon and the San Juan River Basin (COZ023). A Freeze Warning remains in effect for those same areas Friday night as well, so depending on how widespread of a hard freeze occurs in these zones would determine whether additional freeze warnings are needed. Outside of these areas, temperatures will be cooler but not expecting temperatures below freezing for the overnight. DRY THIS WEEKEND: High pressure moves overhead by Saturday as the Rex Block breaks down and the low that was at the bottom of the Rex Block will open up and pull enough moisture with it to bring isolated showers to the San Juans as it tracks over the Four Corners Sunday afternoon. This is fairly weak so not expecting much impact but drier conditions overall this weekend with temperatures around 5 degrees or so below seasonable. Isolated showers are possible again over the high terrain Monday afternoon as southwest flow keeps the area a bit unsettled. Temperatures overall will bump up a little bit towards normal but lean on the side of below seasonable for most areas. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: The next chance for impactful weather comes mid to late next week beginning Tuesday as a low pressure system dives down the west coast and forms a deep closed low over the Desert Southwest. Diffluent southwest flow will allow for better orographic showers Tuesday, more scattered over the high terrain. This low will track across the Great Basin and lift across the area, currently timed late Wednesday through Friday of next week with cooler conditions returning and better chances of more widespread precipitation and mountain snow. Details are still a bit uncertain with timing, amounts and how much cold air will arrive with this system but this mid to late next week system is one to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A shrinking stratus deck is forecast to scattered out over the next few hours at KTEX but will watch and amened as necessary. Otherwise light winds and clear skies will leave VFR in place over the next 24 hours across the region. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008- 023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...TGJT  138 FXUS61 KRLX 160525 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Updated 00Z aviation and equipment section. As of 208 PM... A warm front will support mainly showers or an isolated thunderstorm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few storms continue as a warm front lifts north today. 2) Strong cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds on Friday. 3) Cool and drier on Saturday, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, currently draped across southern WV and northeast KY, will begin to shift north as a warm front while the parent low tracks towards the Great Lakes Region. Showers are expected to continue in the vicinity of the front today, then activity will diminish as the front exits the area this evening into tonight. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains present across portions of central and southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, where heavier downpours could prompt isolated high water issues. While isolated storms are not entirely out of the question along the boundary later this afternoon, the risk of severe weather remains low for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system and upper trough will usher a strong cold front across the area on Friday, with showers, storms, and gusty winds expected to occur during the frontal passage. Precipitation should then persist through the night as the upper trough passes overhead. Blustery conditions will also continue into Saturday morning, with 25-30 mph gusts expected across the lowlands, and up to 45 mph gusts possible along the higher terrain. Cold air advection will quickly lower temperatures from west to east behind the front, likely sending temperatures into the 50s across much of the area by the end of the day. Temperatures further lower into the 30s to 40s overnight, which may allow some snowflakes to materialize over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 3... On Saturday, winds gradually relax and precipitation comes to an end as high pressure builds in from the west during the day. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal, with highs likely remaining in the 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Under calm winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to plummet into the 20s to 30s, resulting frost and freeze conditions across the entirety of the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are generally expected to continue into the new work week, though temperatures trend warmer as high pressure meanders towards the east coast. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main theme with this TAF period is MVFR CIGs progressively lower toward the end of the period to where the mountains sites will likely endure IFR CIGs tonight. The rest of the sites should stay just over IFR but cannot rule out periods of IFR CIGs within rain showers. Winds will increase and will maintain a gusty status through the period to where wind gusts up to 25kts will be likely through the afternoon. Shower activity associated with a cold frontal passage will begin in the afternoon and last through the evening. VIS restrictions under shower activity will be likely and as the front shifts through by the mid afternoon a wind shift out of the northwest will take place. Any wind shear should be negated unless the surface winds decrease in intensity which they are forecast not too. Saturday morning fog is not likely due to increased shower activity and elevated wind speeds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs may drop lower this afternoon as frontal passage takes place. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/16/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions may linger Friday night, especially in the mountains. Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early-morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...JZ  749 FXUS63 KLBF 160515 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freezing conditions are expected across the region overnight and again on Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect across western Nebraska tonight, with a Freeze Watch across the rest of the region tomorrow night. - Along with the frost and freeze conditions, breezy conditions will push wind chills each morning in to the teens to lower 20s. - By Saturday afternoon, conditions return to a warmer, dryer pattern, which lasts into next week. Seasonal to above seasonal highs are expected, with a return of above seasonal overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An upper level trough is tracking southeast across the Dakotas this afternoon, with a surface low pressure system ahead of it. The surface low pressure system also brings an associated cold front across the region this afternoon, pushing through by this evening. High pressure builds across the northern Plains behind the cold front. The last remaining rain showers are tracking out of the region this afternoon, with clearing skies and gusty northerly winds in their wake. This evening, as the cold front clears the area, a cold, dry Canadian air mass pools across the region, bringing a risk for our first frost and freezing conditions of the season. With the tight pressure gradient from the high across the northern Plains and the exiting low, expecting that surface winds remain quite gusty this evening, which may limit temperatures from completely dropping off overnight. However, the clear skies will allow for radiational cooling, so do anticipate this to be the coldest night of the fall season so far (tomorrow night will be even colder). Coldest overnight conditions are expected mainly west of Highway 61, where overnight lows are expected to drop below 30 degrees, potentially reaching a hard freeze (28 degrees or cooler). However, most areas west of Highway 83 are likely to drop below 32 degrees, if only briefly, overnight. With this in mind, went ahead and upgraded our existing Freeze Watch to a Warning. Should note that even areas outside the Freeze Warning will get cold tonight, with lows across the forecast region ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. As these cold temperatures set in overnight, the windy conditions will have a bit of a bite to them. Wind chills overnight and into Friday morning are now expected to drop into the teens to lower 20s across most of the region. While these temperatures are not unusual for October, the fact that this is a fairly late first frost/freeze may catch some folks a bit off guard. Those with outdoor plants, pipes, irrigation, and pets may want to take precaution tonight, if they have not done so already. Additionally, with these colder conditions in the morning, folks may want to make sure to have warm clothing for the morning commute to work and school. Our recent overnight lows in the 40s and 50s have been well above normal for this time of year, as we typically see lows around 31 to 33 degrees for mid October. With cooler air aloft on Friday, conditions remain on the cooler side throughout the day. Highs are only expected to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Some cloud cover may track across portions of north central in the morning to afternoon hours, but expecting skies will be mostly clear by the evening. This will set up another night of radiational cooling across the region, with more widespread lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Sufficient surface winds should bring another morning of colder wind chills across the region, with wind chills in the teens to lower 20s. With this second round of cooler air across the region, expecting fairly widespread frost across the region, not to mention freezing temperatures across the rest of the region. For this reason, have issued another Freeze Watch this shift and will continue to monitor for potential upgrades to a Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning over the next 24 to 36 hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After the cold start Saturday morning, conditions begin to warm again, with a return to seasonal to above seasonal highs and warmer overnight lows. Upper level ridging begins to track across the region again, building in earnest on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, expecting highs to range from the lower 60s east of Highway 83 to the lower 70s west of Highway 61. With the warmer conditions out west, will be keeping an eye for potential elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours, as the above average temperatures will also usher in near critical humidity values. There may be sufficient overlap with gusty winds to cause a few hours of concern, so will continue to monitor closely. By Saturday night, expecting warmer, but still cool, overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday and beyond, with upper level ridging expected to be in place across the region, expecting mostly warmer, dryer conditions through the week. Highs Sunday and early in the week are expected to return to the mid 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows in the lower 40s. For reference, typical highs this time of year are around 62 to 64 degrees, with typical overnight lows of 31 to 33 degrees. As ridging continues to build on Tuesday, we may see even warmer highs, potentially pushing into the mid to upper 70s by late week, with potential for overnight lows to return to the 50s. Guidance still continues to suggest a possible upper level disturbance mid to late week, which may bring our next chances for precipitation, but there is still considerable uncertainty in track and timing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low stratus will continue to overspread terminals near and east of HWY 83 Friday morning, leading to MVFR CIGs through early Friday afternoon. By late Friday afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Saturday morning across western and north central Nebraska. Strong northwest winds continue through sunrise Friday for all terminals before gradually weakening into Friday afternoon. Winds then become light and variable by Friday night, at 5kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ004-022-023-035- 056>058-069-094. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Brown  097 FXUS63 KGLD 160523 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1123 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Upgraded the remaining Freeze Watch counties tonight to a warning. Somewhat marginal set-up with occasionally breezy north winds expected to continue through the night, but skies will be mostly clear. Dew points are in the upper 20s to lower 30s, so likely will see a few locations reach 32 by morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current mid-level water vapor imagery and analysis show a deep, positively tilted trough accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Tri-State area. Clouds have been slow to clear this morning, but have started to clear in areas in the early afternoon. Chances for light showers throughout the area continue until around sunset. If and when the clouds clear for the area will determine the severity of the wind threat for today. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. As of 12pm MDT, portions of eastern Colorado have reported wind gusts around 40 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds. For tonight, a Freeze Warning has been issued for our Colorado counties. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Cheyenne, Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 80% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20- 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west. Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 35 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning. A warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper- level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low teens for the western county warning area (CWA). Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 40s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spreadrapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to low 40s for the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts, with gusts around 25- 30 kts, through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will likely decrease around 22-23Z, to around 5-10 kts as they begin to shift to come from the south. Still expect low level wind shear to continue through around 11Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday for KSZ001- 013-027-041. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  199 FXUS63 KLOT 160526 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area through Friday bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through Friday night: An expansive fall storm system centered over the mid- Mississippi Valley is lifting a warm front into Illinois and Indiana this afternoon. Deep atmospheric moisture is being drawn northward ahead of this system, yielding precipitable water (PWAT) values up to 1.75-2.0 inches (near record highs) for this time of year. This moisture will support narrow corridors of torrential rain late this afternoon and evening, particularly where convective elements train east-northeastward. While not everyone will experience torrential downpours, scattered to numerous rain showers are expected area-wide through early this evening. The threat for isolated thunderstorms remains low, but with the primary MUCAPE reservoir lifting across east-central Illinois into northern Indiana by early evening, any thunderstorm activity should remain primarily south of I-80. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out through early evening, but that threat will be confined even farther south (generally south of a line from Gibson City, IL to Remington, IN), aligning well with the SPC Day 1 outlook. The primary low-pressure system will track directly over northern Illinois early this evening, then deepen as it shifts northeast into lower Michigan tonight. Expect a brief period of lower ceilings and reduced visibility for a few hours as the low moves overhead. Conditions will improve rapidly later tonight following a sharp cold front. In its wake, northwest winds will become gusty (3035 mph) overnight, while strong cold air advection drops temperatures into the 40s to low 50s by early Friday morning. Breezy conditions (gusts of 35 to 40 mph) will persist through Friday due to strong pressure rises behind the departing low and ahead of a 1035+ mb surface high building in from the Plains. Even stronger northerly winds (~45 mph) are projected over southern Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and evening. Onshore flow will push some of these higher winds inland across far northern Porter County, Indiana, where a Wind Advisory is in effect from 1:00 PM to 10:00 PM CDT Friday. Much cooler weather is expected Friday, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid-50s as the coldest airmass of the season arrives under a sharp trough moving across the western Great Lakes. Steepening low- to mid-level lapse rates will support a diurnal increase in scattered showers, especially Friday afternoon. While showers will remain hit-or-miss across interior northern Illinois, favorable lake-effect conditions will bring widespread showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms to southern Lake Michigan and adjacent shorelines Friday afternoon and evening, supported by lake-induced equilibrium heights exceeding 20,000 feet. KJB Friday night into Saturday: The progressive pattern continues as the surface low departs and surface high pressure moves toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. Lingering lake-effect clouds and persistent cold air advection will keep winds slower to diminish Friday night across eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Farther west, clearing skies and light winds near the approaching surface ridge axis across northwest Illinoiswill set the stage for a potential freeze. In collaboration with WFOs MKX and DVN, a Freeze Watch was issued for Boone, Winnebago, and Ogle counties, where lows near 30F are expected early Saturday morning. Widespread frost is also likely to extend farther east and south, where Frost Advisories may eventually be needed, potentially reaching as far east as some of the western Chicago suburbs. Saturday will bring full sunshine and weak winds as high pressure moves directly overhead, though the chilly start will cap afternoon highs in the 50s. Saturday night will be chilly again, with the coldest temperatures favored east of I-55 beneath the lightest winds near the high's center, likely requiring additional frost headlines. Southwesterly return flow will establish by Sunday on the backside of the departing high, initiating a warming trend into early next week. KJB/Borchardt && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Prevailing MVFR is expected through much of today. - Strong northwest wind gusts 25 to 30 knots overnight, strengthening in excess of 30 knots this afternoon. - Widely scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with best chances around KGYY and northwest Indiana. - Wind gusts diminish after 00Z with improving/clearing sky conditions. With surface low pressure moving east of Chicago, cigs have lifted slightly to MVFR levels. These MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through much of the day, though slowly lifting and breaking up closer to 00Z this evening. Isolated showers still fester over the region, but as the low continues to exit to the east, drier conditions are expected through the overnight. Most impactful will be the strengthening northwest wind gusts through the overnight. Gusts are already being observed between 20 and 25 knots, and that is expected to increase to 25 to 30 knots through daybreak. As deeper mixing occurs during the day, gusts in excess of 30 knots are expected. Isolated gusts between 35 to 40 knots are possible this afternoon, though the better chances remain just over 30 knots. Redeveloping showers in the wake of the surface low is expected this afternoon. There is lower confidence in coverage, though expected to be widely scattered over much of the area, with best chances in northwest Indiana as Lake Michigan will help enhance shower development this afternoon. No changes were made to the PROB30/TEMPO groups, except adjusting for timing expectations. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken after 00Z, winds will turn more northerly and cloud cover will begin to clear. Wind gusts will diminish through the evening with a chance that they end all together after midnight. For now, gusts were maintained at ORD/MDW through 12Z Saturday given the lower confidence on exact timing for gusts ending, but will be re- evaluated at later TAF packages. DK && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The forecast remains on track with the fall storm system set to impact the area through Friday. Over the next 18 to 36 hours, the first fall storm system of the season will move through the Great Lakes. As the low lifts into northern IL early this evening, breezy east-southeasterly winds will create waves generally of 3 to 5 feet along the Illinois shoreline. Westerly winds will increase in magnitude later this evening on the immediate backside of the system and behind a cold front with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 kt and a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Friday afternoon, a secondary cold front will surge down Lake Michigan leading to a change in wind direction to northerly and rapid increase in wind speeds. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 kt with frequent gusts to 40 kt are expected,with locally higher gusts in excess of 45 kt possible on the west side of lake effect rain showers. The strongest wind gusts are expected Friday afternoon and evening before gradually tapering after midnight early Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect from 1 PM to 1 AM Friday night into Saturday morning. Finally, strong lake induced instability may support waterspouts near lake effect showers Friday afternoon and evening. Borchardt/KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008. IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  843 FXUS63 KMQT 160519 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 119 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall has returned and will continue through Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes, bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds across the area. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly gales to 45 kts are expected, creating significant wave heights between 13-17 ft. - Dry air and increasing winds Saturday and Sunday could bring elevated fire weather concerns back across Upper Michigan over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As a low digging down from Lake Winnipeg phases with another low lifting from the Central Plains this afternoon, radar imagery shows rainfall beginning to move into the far west by Ironwood as of the time of this writing. As the lows become a new, phased low over Lower MI and Lake Huron tonight, expect the rainfall to continue across the rest of the U.P. the rest of this afternoon through this evening, with generally light rainfall seen across the entire area over the next 12 hours. Within the synoptic phase of this system, expect a wetting rainfall across the area as guidance shows generally around half an inch of liquid falling. However, as robust CAA cycles down behind the phased low late tonight through Friday, expect lake enhanced rainfall to pick up over the north wind belts, eventually transitioning over to pure lake effect rain showers by Friday as the low pulls away and delta-Ts in the mid to upper teens keep the lake effect going until high pressure ridging returns Friday night through this weekend. Additional rainfall amounts from the lake enhanced and effect rain showers late tonight through Friday could bring an additional half inch or more of liquid to the north wind belts, with some of the higher elevations in the upslope areas potentially seeing a 15 to 40% chance of seeing an inch and a half of liquid between now and early Friday afternoon (according to the latest REFS run). With high pressure ridging returning for the weekend, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to wrap up by Friday night. One last note on the lake effect showers: there could be a transition over to snowfall as the lake effect showers wrap up Friday night. While accumulations should practically be nothing, it is worth noting that these could be the first snowflakes of the season. With precipitation looking to stay away from the area this weekend through the first half of next week, the WAA seen with the high pressure ridging moving overhead could induce elevated fire weather conditions across the area this weekend, particularly over western Upper MI. This is due to very dry air coming in above the boundary layer (think 925mb level); with mostly sunny skies overhead, robust mixing during the daytime hours could bring RHs down into the 20 percents (lowest on Saturday) and southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph to the sfc (strongest on Sunday). In addition, poor RH recoveries are expected over the western U.P. Saturday night (<80% MaxRH). While the recent rainfall will help alleviate drought concerns, with plenty of dead leaves being added to the sfc and the drought conditions not expected to be completely removed after the rainfall this afternoon through Friday, we could see some critical fire weather concerns this weekend across the area. Therefore, as reminder, you should obey all burn bans in place if you are under one (which can be found at www.dnr.state.mi.us/burnpermits). In addition, avoid power equipment that creates sparks, and for smokers, please properly discard your cigarettes, cigars, etc. While the fire weather danger decreases once we enter the first half ofthe work week next week due to calmer winds, we could see some fairly dry sfc conditions still on Monday and Tuesday (MinRHs down to 30%). Rainfall may finally return by the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As a low pressure over Lower Michigan tracks east, a colder airmass presses in from the west. This transitions lingering stratiform rain over to lake effect rain showers this morning with MVFR/IFR conditions. Drier air working in through the day eventually lifts and scatters out lingering lake effect cloudiness, returning all sites to VFR from west to east this afternoon. Winds quickly strengthen this morning out of the north to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-40 kts, strongest at CMX. Winds taper off from west to east, settling below 10 kts this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this afternoon into this evening rapidly increase to high-end northerly gales up to 45 kts Friday morning as robust CAA drops down across the area. Because of the strong winds and waves building up to 13 to 17 ft (highest over southeast lake), a Gale Warning has been issued for the entire lake Friday. In addition, while not expected, there is up to a 15% chance that a storm force gust or two could be seen in the southeastern lake near Marquette and at the tip of the Keweenaw Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. As high pressure ridging returns Friday night, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less late. However, with the pressure gradient over the lake tightening and a LLJ coming in this weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest once again by Saturday to 20 to 30 kts, with the latest REFS showing a 30 to 60% chance for low-end gales over the west half of the lake on Saturday (highest chances along the Bayfield Peninsula followed by the Keweenaw). Gale chances could increase between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale on Sunday as the latest LREF shows up to a 40 to 80% chance of low end gales by then. As the pressure gradient weakens overhead and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less this afternoon into this evening give way to northerly gales up to 35 kts by late Friday morning as strong CAA drops down from Canada across the Upper Great Lakes. While this will immediately be followed up with high pressure ridging moving in Friday night (which will bring lighter winds of 15 kts or less back across the area), with a tightening pressure gradient and LLJ returning to the area for the weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest to 20 to 30 kts, with a 20 to 50% chance of gales up to 35 kts possible on Sunday according to the latest LREF. However, once the pressure gradient weakens early next week and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to drop back down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...77 MARINE...TAP  839 FXUS66 KPDT 160519 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1019 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Gusty conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley tomorrow afternoon with elevated fire risk. 3. Trough develops through area beginning Monday with the potential for rainfall along Blue Mountains && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies continue to be present over the region thanks to continued upper-level ridging along the US West Coast. Current guidance timing suggests that the ridge will remain present in the region throughout the rest of today and tomorrow, transitioning to zonal flow alongside a shortwave trough tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Said shortwave trough will likely (greater than 50% chance) be positioned along the US- Canada border, limiting precipitation chances through the region (less than 20%). As the primary trough axis continues to move eastward, deterministic guidance highlights a favorable surface pressure gradient across the Blue Mountains for gusty south/southeast winds tomorrow into Saturday morning, especially around the Grande Ronde Valley. NBM ensemble probabilities for this time show a high chance (around 75%) of localized sustained winds in excess of 20 mph, with a moderate chance (up to 50%) of local gusts in excess of 40mph in the Grande Ronde Valley. Given the windy conditions in these regions, as well as RH values around 15-20% for much of the Blue Mountains in the afternoon, an elevated fire risk is present for these regions for Friday afternoon into the evening. As zonal flow continues throughout the weekend, an upper level trough will begin to develop offshore Sunday night through Monday, moving into the PacNW region Monday night into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is confident (greater than 75% chance) that a trough will occur, however significant variability still exists regarding trough strength and timing. Because of this uncertainty in trough depth, there is low confidence (around 30-40%) in current rainfall amounts. In scenarios where the trough is deeper, with a closed low developing near California, rainfall is limited to non-wetting amounts along the Blue Mountains. In scenarios with a more northward low or open wave setup, wetting rainfall in these regions is more likely with the improved moisture flow pattern. Lingering rainfall is possible into Wednesday and Thursday as the trough moves eastward and weakens, however the same model variability concerns and low confidence still applies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR Conditions prevail. Winds follow a diurnal pattern. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 37 73 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 44 74 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 38 69 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 42 70 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 37 70 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 38 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 33 79 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 41 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 36 76 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 44 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/71 AVIATION...18  312 FXUS63 KILX 160529 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely tonight through Friday afternoon. The strongest winds will be west of I-57. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. There is a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm front pushed back north this morning bringing a round of rain across central IL. PWATs are expected to be around 1.8-2.1 inches this afternoon, which is very high for the month of October. The 12z upper air sounding showed 1.77 inches for PWAT. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain through tonight near the I-70 corridor on top of what has already fallen this morning. The rest of Central IL could see 0.25-0.75" of rain during this time. Some areas under the heaviest rain has already achieved the 1-3" amounts. When the cold front advances east this afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. With the 1630z update, SPC has introduced a slight risk (level 2 of 5) to I- 70 and south and a marginal risk still from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms if we can recover fully from the morning stratus/fog and morning rainfall. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. Damaging winds and a tornado or two are the main hazards. Storms will move through from ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional light showers could occur through Friday afternoon. After Friday afternoon, the forecast is expected to be dry through the extended period. The cold front pushes off to our east early tomorrow morning. The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts around 30 mph will start late this evening and will continue for most of the day tomorrow. Wind gusts tomorrow will be around 30-40 mph, with the strongest winds possible west of I-57. The HREF shows a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 in the morning. Winds should relax to closer to 15-20 mph by sunset tomorrow. Cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in behind the front for a few days. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be in the 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop in western IL Saturday morning, depending if the wind will drop to near calm. Saturday morning may also have a risk for a light freeze in some locations north of the IL River Valley, especially in low spots. The HREF is showing a 40-60% chance of temperatures dropping below 32 degrees north of the IL River Valley. Patchy frost is possible again Sunday morning. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, then to upper 70s by Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Any remaining showers in the vicinity of the central IL terminals will diminish in the next hour or so as a cold front pushes off to the east. An area of partial clearing and VFR conditions looks to move into the area for a few hours starting 09Z-12Z, followed by a return to MVFR cigs as an upper level disturbance moves through this afternoon. This will be accompanied by scattered showers from around 17Z-00Z. VFR conditions are expected to return after 00Z. Winds NW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts until 00Z then tapering off to around 10-15 kts by 06Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...37  293 FXUS63 KMPX 160528 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds tonight, with gusts to 45 mph possible in western and southern MN. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain, with increased fire weather concerns returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rainfall moving across the area is pretty much coming in as forecast, with a broad deformation band of rain to the northwest of a surface low that is near the IA/MO/IL border this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are on track to come in in the 0.75" to 1" range from down around Albert Lea up toward Chippewa Falls/Eau Claire, around 0.5" in the Twin Cities, down to around 0.1" by the time you get to St. Cloud. This rain shield will clear the Eau Claire area between 10pm and midnight, to be replaced by a tight pressure gradient and strong low level CAA. This will allow the winds to kick up, with wind gusts up over 40 mph expected west of I-35 from roughly midnight to noon on Friday before they start to slowly settle down in the afternoon. Besides the winds, forcing from the northern stream shortwave, combined with instability from the differential CAA, will result in a batch of showers moving south through MN around midnight (as seen with the HRRR). After that, it's looking like this may be the last chance for rain we have for the next 7+ days. Friday, high pressure will come out of the Rockies and sink southeast toward the southern Plains. The ridge axis will be centered over the MPX area between 00z and 06z Saturday (7pm Friday to 1am Saturday) and will already be off to our southeast by Saturday morning. This leads to some uncertainty with lows Saturday morning, especially over western and central MN, where return flow and southwest winds will start blowing during the night, with lows likely being achieved near midnight, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the rest of the night. Still, NBM probability for a low of 32 or less is basically 100% northeast of I- 94 and 50-75% southwest of I-94 (for the core of the Twin Cities metro, the freeze probability drops to 20% thanks to the urban heat island), so we went ahead with a Freeze Watch for the entire area Friday night/Saturday morning. Growing Season Index (GSI) values are currently up around 0.8, which indicates stressed, but still active vegetation. By Thursday next week, the GSI values are forecast to fall below 0.5, indicating that this brief cold push combined with decreasing daylight will be enough to shut down the growing season for 2026. For the rest of the forecast, it's back to ridging and dry Pacific airmasses. One thing we've seen is that models are holding this ridging pattern in place longer, with any sort of breakdown in the pattern not coming until next weekend or early the following week. It will still be cool on Saturday thanks to the cold start, but from Sunday through next week, it will be highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s as our exceptionally warm October weather returns after this brief cool down. The one thing to watch starting Saturday and continuing through next week will be the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. Right now, the day with the lowest dewpoints also has our coolest temperatures, with the warmer temperatures next week coming with higher dewpoints. This all works out to RHs remaining above critical thresholds (25%), but we'll have to keep a close eye on RHs given the potential for some breezy periods to go with this unseasonably mild airmass. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs and scattered showers will continue overnight. Clouds will decrease later in the morning with clear skies thereafter. Northwest winds will increase during the next several hours with gusts peaking in the morning then decreasing in the afternoon and evening. KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected to arrive between 07-08Z then scatter out later in the morning. Occasional light rain showers through early morning. Winds will increase overnight with gusts of 30-35 kts during the morning hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk- St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Borghoff  373 FXUS63 KGID 160530 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - In the wake of departing rain, dry weather is likely across our entire forecast area through at least Sunday night, and probably through at least Tuesday. - In the wake of a cold front, blustery north-northwest winds will prevail overnight into much of Friday daytime before becoming much lighter late afternoon-early evening. Gusts as high as at least 40-45 MPH likely at times especially some areas north of I-80. - As winds become light Friday night-early Sat AM, we are almost certainly headed toward our first widespread frost of the season, and probably also at least a "soft freeze" between 29-32 degrees for most places. A Freeze Watch has been issued for our entire area. - After one more day with highs only in the 50s on Friday, temperatures gradually warm into the 60s and eventually 70s over the next several days. - Although still a TON of uncertainty this far out in time, at least low chances for rain return to our area by next Wed- Thurs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Largely VFR conditions favored, with a window of MVFR CIGs possible 11-17z. Low stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR from the north during the early morning hours. This SCT-BKN stratus will range from 020-050. Have included a TEMPO group during the time when model guidance most favors MVFR potential. MVFR CIGs move away by the late morning hours, with skies clearing during the afternoon. LLWS will persist through the mid-morning hours. Northerly winds sustained 15-20kts and gusting 25-30kts are expected through the late morning hours. Winds steadily-quickly drop off during the afternoon hours, with winds becoming light and variable after sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Davis  373 FXUS63 KGID 160530 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - In the wake of departing rain, dry weather is likely across our entire forecast area through at least Sunday night, and probably through at least Tuesday. - In the wake of a cold front, blustery north-northwest winds will prevail overnight into much of Friday daytime before becoming much lighter late afternoon-early evening. Gusts as high as at least 40-45 MPH likely at times especially some areas north of I-80. - As winds become light Friday night-early Sat AM, we are almost certainly headed toward our first widespread frost of the season, and probably also at least a "soft freeze" between 29-32 degrees for most places. A Freeze Watch has been issued for our entire area. - After one more day with highs only in the 50s on Friday, temperatures gradually warm into the 60s and eventually 70s over the next several days. - Although still a TON of uncertainty this far out in time, at least low chances for rain return to our area by next Wed- Thurs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Largely VFR conditions favored, with a window of MVFR CIGs possible 11-17z. Low stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR from the north during the early morning hours. This SCT-BKN stratus will range from 020-050. Have included a TEMPO group during the time when model guidance most favors MVFR potential. MVFR CIGs move away by the late morning hours, with skies clearing during the afternoon. LLWS will persist through the mid-morning hours. Northerly winds sustained 15-20kts and gusting 25-30kts are expected through the late morning hours. Winds steadily-quickly drop off during the afternoon hours, with winds becoming light and variable after sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Davis  445 FXUS61 KAKQ 160531 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 131 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 06z/16 TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont. 3) A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning. The latest WX analysis indicates ~1023mb sfc high pressure centered from southern New England to the northern mid-Atlantic region, with a sfc cold front becoming nearly stationary across eastern NC. A few light showers are ongoing over the northern portions of the FA, but rainfall has been very light. Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-64, with 70s to the south (and a few lower 80s from south central VA to Bertie Co. NC). It continues to be breezy along the coast, with gusts to 25-30 mph, while NE winds inland are generally 10 mph or less. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. As the front starts to lift back to the north overnight, could see some areas of fog develop inland and over the eastern shore, but most guidance suggests this will be primarily low stratus. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. The front is expected to accelerate northward Friday morning in response to strong low pressure moving NE from the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley (and sfc high pressure well offshore by that timeframe). This will allow for a return to unseasonable warmth (almost as warm as Wed), with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90F which is 15 or more degrees above normal. Have included a Climate section below as record highs may be challenged. The amplified upper level pattern supports a dry day area-wide with the cold front lagging back until Friday night/early Saturday. It also appears to be ana-frontal (with precip along and behind the front). Hi-res guidance still depicts the potential for thin strongly- forced line of convection along the front Friday evening/early Saturday, but the overnight timing and little stability should keep the SVR threat rather low. With that said, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has mostly maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. For the day Saturday, the models are into a bit better agreement with the timing, showing the upper level shortwave hanging back to the west and not really crossing the local area until 18Z or later. Will have likely to categorical PoPs lingering through late morning/early afternoon across the eastern portions of the FA, with drying from W to E. Temperatures will be sharply cooler, in the 50s or 60s falling into the 50s. With winds gusting to 30-35 mph, it will feel quite chilly and be quite a change. Will maintain some low chc PoPs in the SE through late aftn/early evening as the shortwave interacts with lingering moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont. Strong NWflow aloft in the wake for the shortwave will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the sfc high forecast to be 1035mb+ , decided to undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dew pts, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Farther east, stayed near NBM values, as NE low level flow should keep lows much milder, with lows ranging through the 40s (to around 50F at the immediate coast). Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 3...A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area. Most of the latest 12Z model suite has trended more amplified into next week, with an upper low developing along or not too far off the SE US coast. The ECMWF remains the most bullish with this pattern, and the GFS is generally the farthest offshore, but all of the models have some degree of this setup. The NBM is mostly dry, but is probably being too slow to react to the latest model runs. While the forecast for Mon-Wed in mainly dry currently, would anticipate seeing at least chc PoPs return to the forecast for at least the eastern sections of the CWA. High temperatures will be a little below normal, but seasonable. Breezy conditions are likely along the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, a cold front is situated to the south of the local area, with widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs in its wake. CIGs will continue to deteriorate early this morning, with LIFR possible at RIC, ORF, and PHF as we approach ~10-13z. In addition, light rain showers are possible across far northern portions of the area early this morning, with the highest chances at SBY. Light rain at SBY will likely keep CIGs from dropping to IFR until closer to sunrise. The cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front later this morning, leading to an increasing S-SW wind and a rapid improvement in flight conditions back to VFR ~14-16z. VFR conditions are then expected through much of the remainder of the forecast period, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) chances this evening into tonight. S-SW winds may be gusty at times later this morning into this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later tonight through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially in the east. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south of the area returns north as a warm front. - SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area Friday night. - Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the waters outside of the rivers. NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be dropped at 4pm.NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front currently over NC will quickly move north Friday morning allowing winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday. However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE. However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be introduced into the lower James as some point. Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8 to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ656-658-686-688. && $$ DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AC/MRD CLIMATE...LKB  009 FXUS61 KBGM 160521 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 121 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were expanded Friday night into Saturday morning for lake effect precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will move through later today and bring showers and thunderstorms to the region, along with much colder air. There is a low potential for isolated strong storms. 2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week.&& .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will continue to lift through the region early this morning with the first round of showers that are expected today. Elevated instability will support isolated heavier showers and potentially some non-severe thunderstorms as well. Despite strong flow aloft, an inversion will limit the mixing potential tonight. However, gusts over 25 mph will still be possible. This first round of showers will be through by the mid-morning hours, though some spotty showers will still be possible given the close proximity of the associated surface low. A squall line is expected to develop along a cold front that drops in from the northwest by midday and quickly moves through during the afternoon hours. While the region will be in the warm sector prior to the arrival of the front, there is uncertainty on how much instability will develop under a weak October sun angle and limited clearing of skies. Models continue to show SBCAPE value of less than 500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will lead to 0-6 km shear rising to 50 to 60 kts - a typical low CAPE, high shear environment for this region. Based on the timing of the front, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across Northeast PA and the Catskills. The main hazard will be strong wind gusts. Low-level shear is also quite high, which supports a low potential for a spin up or two but that will depend on having adequate instability. Following the cold front, northwesterly flow will advect in much colder air. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s tonight. Lake effect precipitation will develop late today and be enhanced by a passing upper-level trough. Temperatures will generally stay warm enough for just rain though a rain/snow mix or even a brief period of just snow overnight will be possible, especially over the Finger Lakes Region. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected. High pressure builds into the region Saturday, eventually cutting off the lake effect precipitation by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow may keep the clouds around slightly longer than forecasted, but some late breaks of sunshine are expected. Saturday will be quite chilly with highs only in the 40s. Then overnight, clear skies will lead to radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the 20s. For the Wyoming Valley, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... The area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast. At times, it will drift northward but the high pressure will keep precipitation out of the region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue prior to midnight. After about 05-06Z, showers and lowering ceilings are expected to start moving in as the next system approaches. Conditions will likely continue getting worse through the early morning hours with MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions and embedded IFR conditions. There could also be some embedded thunderstorms early Friday morning, but confidence on where is low. Confidence also remains low at this time for the potential for brief southerly LLWS. Model guidance is showing some mixing overnight and if that is the case, it will be more low level turbulence than low level wind shear. However, where surface winds stay below 10 knots, LLWS conditions will be likely. South to southwest winds increase tomorrow morning into the afternoon ahead of a line of convective showers or even embedded thunderstorms that can produce gusty winds. Thunder will be added in future updates as confidence increases on location. Toward the end of the TAF, west to west-northwest west winds are expected with gusts of 20-25 knots persisting along with lingering restrictions. Outlook... Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BTL AVIATION...DK/MPK  278 FXUS62 KTAE 160528 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 128 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again Friday morning across much of the area. - A strong cold front Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 35 to 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions across the area will remain constant tomorrow, with only a very minimal chance of rain along the coast of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will remain across the region through Friday ahead of the front moving in later this weekend. Tonight, minimal winds due to a very weak pressure gradient in tandem with prefrontal moisture will create ideal conditions for patchy fog to form tomorrow morning across the area. As the day progresses, the high pressure system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front sweeps through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. It'll be a mostly dry frontal passage with the highest chance for rain across the southeastern Florida Big Bend Friday night. However, you'll know the front is through when winds turn more northerly and increase substantially with widespread wind gusts of 30+ mph expected early Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions continue throughout Saturday and linger into Saturday night before the pressure gradient relaxes enough to allow winds to calm some. Even then, winds are forecast to remain elevated into early next week. As mentioned in the previous AFD, this type of wind could hamper hurricane recovery efforts across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and a Wind Advisory for these areas will be considered, even if it may not explicitly hit criteria. One good thing about this front is it will bring a true taste of autumn with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s over the weekend. Temperatures moderate some early next week, but still remain near to slightly below normal for this time of year. One thing we'll also monitor is the potential for a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic states next week. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid-Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR vsbys will develop overnight, perhaps IFR at ABY and VLD in the predawn hours. Fog will dissipate by mid morning with VFR conds prevailing. Attention then turns to a cold front entering the area this evening. Winds will quickly clock to northwest behind the passage at ECP, DHN, and ABY 3-4Z with speeds around 15 knots and gusts 25-27 knots. Frontal passage at TLH and VLD was at the end of the period so will include in the 12Z TAFs. Little to no rainfall expected with the frontal passage, perhaps some light rain at ECP in the late afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue Friday with light easterly breezes in the morning turning more westerly later in the day. That changes in a hurry as a powerful cold front sweeps across the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase substantially out of the northwest to north following the frontal passage. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch for all of our waters Friday night through at least Saturday night. Winds are forecast to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another dry day is in the forecast again Friday ahead of a cold front. MinRh will generally be between 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon. Transport winds will generally be out of the west ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring a low, 20 to 30 percent, chance of an isolated shower or two as the front sweeps through, especially along the immediate coast and the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Winds quickly become northerly following the front late Friday night into Saturday with gusts generally between 30 to 40 mph. MinRH is forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Patchy dense fog is possible from early to mid-morning again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Several sites, including a number of them along the Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee Rivers, remain in Action stage this afternoon but are slowly falling. An isolated shower or two is possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, but they shouldn't cause any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast period is looking dry. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 72 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 72 55 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 55 70 50 68 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 56 70 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 72 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 75 57 73 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 64 72 58 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for GMZ735. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  329 FXUS65 KTFX 160530 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1130 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures trend warmer through Saturday before cooling slightly Sunday into early next week. - Gusty to locally strong westerly winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and especially Saturday. - Pacific weather systems look to bring cooler temperatures and periods of rain and mostly mountain snow heading towards the second half of next week. && .UPDATE... /Issued 802 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ Satellite imagery this evening shows mainly clear skies across the region with just some high clouds beginning to spill over the top of an upper level ridge into the Northern Rockies while surface high pressure slides eastward across eastern MT. South to southeast winds increase some overnight across the plains between the departing surface high and a developing lee-side trough in southern AB. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in some SW MT valleys, where surface winds remain light with minimal cloud- cover. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 802 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Ridging aloft migrates into the Northern Rockies and brings continued clearing skies tonight, along with some patchy AM fog over the wind protected valleys of southwest and north-central MT. H500 heights peak above 580 dm and warms high temperatures well into the 60s and 70s Friday and Saturday. The combination of increased westerly flow aloft and deep layer mixing will also bring gusty to locally strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains during this timeframe. The strongest winds will occur Saturday afternoon when H700 flow increases to the 50 to 70 kt range in advance of a fast approaching trough traveling eastward along the Canadian border. Forecast afternoon RH's were lowered to the upper teens to middle 20s for most lower elevation locations. A more relaxed zonal flow sets up on Sunday for slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds. A closed mid-level low then looks to move onto the Pacific NW coast on Monday before heading southeastward into California and towards the Great Basin area by mi- week. This will bring a southerly flow aloft and a few passing showers over the Northern Rockies while temperatures remain roughly near average. At least half of the ensemble suites highlight another trough approaching the Northern Rockies next Friday/Saturday. Similar to the aforementioned closed low, this new trough will be undergoing shearing and splitting, which decreases forecast position and timing confidence. Overall, there's a general expectation for cooling temperatures and increased instances of rain and mostly mountain snow heading into next weekend. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and Saturday... Breezy to windy conditions develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday afternoon, with localized gusts over 50 mph along the immediate eastern slopes of the front. The windiest period will be Saturday afternoon when westerly flow aloft increases and diurnal mixing transfers some stronger gusts to the surface. Areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I15 look to see routine gusts over 50 mph and have a 50 to 80% chance (highest for the eastern slopes of the front) for instantaneous gusts over 70 mph. Plains locations to the east of I15 will generally see winds gusting in the 30 to 50 mph range, most frequently Saturday afternoon. Impacts will be greatest for the aforementioned areas west of I15 and will include difficult conditions for outdoor recreation over portions of Glacier National Park and neighboring areas of higher terrain. There will also be difficult travel for those operating high profile vehicles or pulling light weight trailers, especially along highway 89 from Chouteau to the Canadian border. The inherited high wind watch remains valid and was left as is for this forecast package. - RCG && .AVIATION... 16/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 1606/1706 TAF period; however, patchy fog is possible near the KBZN terminal through the morning hours on Friday, with a 10% chance that visibilities fall to MVFR between 06z and 15z Friday. Given low probability for MVFR VIS over this timeframe will prevail 6sm BR to at least get mention of reduced VIS. Otherwise the only other impact to terminals across Southwest through North Central Montana will be breezy afternoon winds, most notably over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 33 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 25 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 28 61 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 24 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 15 55 19 55 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 24 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 26 67 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 26 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  561 FXUS61 KBGM 160533 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 133 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were expanded Friday night into Saturday morning for lake effect precipitation. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will move through later today and bring showers and thunderstorms to the region, along with much colder air. There is a low potential for isolated strong storms. 2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will continue to lift through the region early this morning with the first round of showers that are expected today. Elevated instability will support isolated heavier showers and potentially some non-severe thunderstorms as well. Despite strong flow aloft, an inversion will limit the mixing potential tonight. However, gusts over 25 mph will still be possible. This first round of showers will be through by the mid-morning hours, though some spotty showers will still be possible given the close proximity of the associated surface low. A squall line is expected to develop along a cold front that drops in from the northwest by midday and quickly moves through during the afternoon hours. While the region will be in the warm sector prior to the arrival of the front, there is uncertainty on how much instability will develop under a weak October sun angle and limited clearing of skies. Models continue to show SBCAPE value of less than 500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will lead to 0-6 km shear rising to 50 to 60 kts - a typical low CAPE, high shear environment for this region. Based on the timing of the front, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across Northeast PA and the Catskills. The main hazard will be strong wind gusts. Low-level shear is also quite high, which supports a low potential for a spin up or two but that will depend on having adequate instability. Following the cold front, northwesterly flow will advect in much colder air. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s tonight. Lake effect precipitation will develop late today and be enhanced by a passing upper-level trough. Temperatures will generally stay warm enough for just rain though a rain/snow mix or even a brief period of just snow overnight will be possible, especially over the Finger Lakes Region. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected. High pressure builds into the region Saturday, eventually cutting off the lake effect precipitation by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow may keep the clouds around slightly longer than forecasted, but some late breaks of sunshine are expected. Saturday will be quite chilly with highs only in the 40s. Then overnight, clear skies will lead to radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the 20s. For the Wyoming Valley, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... The area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast. At times, it will drift northward but the high pressure will keep precipitation out of the region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and lowering ceilings are expected to start moving in as the next system approaches, with conditions expected to continue to worsen through the early morning hours with MVFR/Fuel- alt restrictions and embedded IFR conditions. There could also be some embedded thunderstorms early this morning, but confidence on where is low. South to southwest winds increase this morning into the afternoon ahead of a line of convective showers or even embedded thunderstorms that can produce gusty winds. Thunder will be added in future updates as confidence increases on location for the late afternoon/evening timeframe. Toward the end of the TAF, west to west- northwest west winds are expected with gusts of 20-25 knots persisting along with lingering restrictions. Outlook... Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BTL AVIATION...KL  603 FXUS63 KARX 160534 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues the entire area for much of the today with rainfall totals of around 0.5 to 1.5". No impacts are expected from this rainfall. - Breezy northwest winds with a good (40-70%) chance for spotty showers on Friday morning and afternoon. There is potential (40-60%) for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west of the Mississippi River. - Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is very likely (70- 100%), particularly north of Interstate 94, where values may dip below 28. A Freeze Watch is now in effect across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain continues into this evening As expected, rain is ongoing across the region early this afternoon ahead of a southern stream wave currently moving over NE/KS. Rain amounts have been light, generally around less than 0.5" over the past 6 hours. Expect these rain rates to continue through the evening so some spots could get up to 1.5", including morning rain, but most will end up with 0.5-1" as their final totals. Breezy with spotty showers for Friday Friday, after the southern stream wave phases with the northern stream trough currently over Lake Winnipeg, surface low to our east will deepen considerably and temperatures aloft in our area cool rapidly. A strong surface gradient will be present with pressure rises near 2 mb/hr and a northerly 30-40 knot 850mb jet will move over the area. The end result will be breezy conditions with potential (40-60% per 15.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust, particularly west of the Mississippi valley, just a bit too low of confidence for issuance of a Wind Advisory this afternoon. As for rain, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep low level lapse rates with moist conditions within much of the boundary layer. This should result in spotty open cellular convection across the forecast area but, with shallow updrafts ending below the -10C level, am not expecting thunder. Downdrafts look to augment the risk for gusts at the surface due to the aforementioned 35-40 knot winds present at 850mb. Freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning Post frontal surface high builds into KS Friday night with this surface ridge extending northeast into WI. Clear skies and light winds should lead to temperatures tumbling rapidly after sunset. Guidance probabilities point strongly to an areawide freeze (at least 40/70/70% percent in 15.12z REFS/LREF/NBM). Since the locally defined growing season is nearly over but still ongoing, the event is within 48 hours, and confidence is at least 50%, the criteria for a Freeze Watch has clearly been reached so have issued one for the entire CWA. For areas north of I-94, a killing freeze with temps below 28 may (30-70%, highest in Taylor County) occur as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs will continue to overspread the region overnight as post- frontal low-level stratus overspreads the region. As this occurs, embedded showers with some weak instability will occasionally reduce visibilities to MVFR at times this morning. Some IFR cigs cannot be ruled out during this period, however probabilities guidance in the HREF and NBH are not overly confident west of the Mississippi River (30-50% chance). MVFR cigs persist through early afternoon, until guidance generally agrees on quickly clearing out cigs towards evening. Otherwise, winds will remain strong from the north-northwest throughout much of the daytime hours with sustained winds of 15-25 kts with gusts as high as around35 kts, primarily during the mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds will quickly decrease after sunset with clearing skies by 06z Saturday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Naylor  560 FXUS64 KBMX 160533 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 This evening we have a cold front extending from the Great Lakes SWWD to AR and swinging back into Central TX. This front should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area on Friday. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon and evening. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before the front moves through, we will still see enough warming Friday for max temps to be above normal going into the 80s. The exception may be in the far NW counties where there will be less time to heat up before the front arrives where it may not get out of the 70s. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Friday afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool fall readings are on tap with lows in the 40s for many on Friday night and for all Saturday/Sunday nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry with Eastern Conus surface ridging. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026 After an extended period of clear and calm weather, alas some changes are on the way. A cold front is forecast to push through the state today. The most impactful part of the frontal passage for central Alabama terminals will be a noticeable increase in wind speed and gustiness, with a prevailing northwesterly direction. While there's an outside chance of a brief shower with the frontal passage, confidence remains sufficiently low to preclude mentioning any rain in the TAFs. Even if it does rain, it is very unlikely to cause any ceiling or visibility restrictions. I did include an overcast deck around 4000 ft with the passage of the front, but there's nothing in the computer models to suggest that conditions will be anything other than VFR. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area Friday into Friday evening leading to gusty winds, isolated light showers, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 47 65 41 / 20 10 0 0 Anniston 85 47 65 43 / 20 10 0 0 Birmingham 84 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 86 49 68 44 / 20 10 0 0 Calera 85 48 65 45 / 20 10 0 0 Auburn 84 50 67 48 / 20 20 0 0 Montgomery 87 51 69 47 / 20 20 0 0 Troy 86 49 68 47 / 20 20 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../61/  752 FXUS64 KLUB 160537 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture responsible for the last couple of days of active weather has finally begin shifting to our east. Dry weather is now in place and will continue through the near term as flow aloft weakens and subsidence persists on the backside of the departing system. Blustery north winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into most of Friday in the wake of our earlier cold front, with sustained speeds expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph range given surface pressure rises on the order of 3 to 5 mb in 3 hours. Lingering high cloud cover and the magnitude of the northerly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too dramatically overnight, but we still expect lows in the 40s area- wide early Friday morning. Friday will be the chilliest day this area has seen in quite some time with temperatures only expected to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. In fact, the last time that Lubbock measured a daytime high below 60 degrees was way back on Mar. 16. Winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and will decrease quite quickly by Friday evening as a surface ridge settles over the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The first freeze of the season still looks likely for portions of the region late Friday night through early Saturday morning. This will be driven by conditions favorable for excellent radiational cooling, with clearing skies and very light winds as the surface ridge builds directly overhead. General consensus of guidance still favors lows on Saturday morning in the upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and low 30s over most of the South Plains. Should clouds be slower to clear than currently expected, temps may be able to remain above freezing, however confidence is high enough in temps near or just below 32F to support a Freeze Watch over the entire Caprock from Friday night through early Saturday morning. This would be an early first freeze for this region, with the climatological average first freeze for many locations still two or three weeks out. Surface flow will gradually obtain a stronger southerly component on Saturday as surface ridging shifts to our east, but will be weak enough to support one more very cool day with highs still in the 50s and low 60s Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will become more robust Sunday and beyond, which combined with the building of a modest upper ridge axis will boost temperatures back towards normal for this time of year next week. Models are in good agreement keeping our area dry through at least Tuesday, with mid/upper moisture and precipitation chances possibly returning during the second half of the week as a deep upper low settles to our west. For now though, a dry forecast is still favored with poor model consensus at this lead time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR is anticipated through the TAF period. However, strong northerly winds will persist through the day on Friday and not decrease until early in the evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01  417 FXUS63 KGRR 160554 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area Low pressure is centered just east of Des Moines Iowa at 18Z with widespread rain located to the north of the low over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Two upper shortwaves from both the northern stream and southern stream are phasing off to the west over the upper midwest at this time. As such, the low will deepen as it moves east through the Lower Peninsula. Widespread/deep lift will sweep through Southwest Lower Michigan between roughly 400pm this afternoon and 400am tonight. The bulk of the rain will fall during this period. The lift is driven by the right entrance region of an upper jet that will be located overhead which will drive a low level response of strong isentropic lift and significant moisture transport. Sounding climatology for DTX shows the max PWATs for today being 1.55 inches. We will be north of 1.75 inches this evening. Given abnormal moisture in the depth of the column tonight we expect efficient rainfall production. Most areas will see 0.50 to 1.00 amounts. Amounts may exceed an inch up towards Ludington. Given low river levels and amounts that are not overly concerning not expecting flooding issues. Thunderstorms are a possibility this evening, especially along I-94 between 800pm and 200am. The instability is not strong, several hundred j/kg, but given the dynamics, thunder is a distinct possibility. Wind is the next concern and we have Gale Warnings out on the big lake. As for the land, we feel we will stay just below wind advisory criteria with most gusts in the 30-40 mph range. It will very much feel like fall with a wet, windy and rainy system working through the state. The second portion of the event will come on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps south around daybreak. Showers will accompany the front and usher in cold enough air for lake effect rain. Midday into the afternoon CAPE over the lake is maximized, pushing towards 1,000 j/kg. We are likely looking at thunderstorms off the lake given the significant moisture boost this time of the year via the warmer water. Some diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible inland as well given the cold air aloft. The most concentrated rain will be working down the length of the lake though in northerly flow. - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week Quiet weather conditions will persist over the weekend into early next week as high pressure dominates the scene both at the surface and aloft. The main item of note is that frost and freezing temperatures are possible both Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The first batch of rain has moved through the area ahead of a front that is located near KLAN to KJXN at 0530z. A noticeable wind switch is occurring with the front, and a brief increase in wind gusts to about 35 knots. IFR remains dominate across the area with pockets of MVFR. IFR will continue for a few more hours with showers continuing with the next part of this system moving in. Conditions will improve to MVFR this morning, but we could see some IFR with another front moving through mid-morning to early afternoon. This front could actually cause some storms at KMKG with the instability over the lake. Once the secondary front moves through this afternoon, winds will shift to become from the NNW and gust to 30-35 knots. Conditions will improve slowly tohigh end MVFR, and eventually VFR late this afternoon and evening. Showers will tend to migrate closer to the Lake Michigan shoreline. More cloud cover may hold at KLAN and KJXN this evening with some clouds coming in from Lake Huron. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A deepening fall storm system is still expected to pass through the Great Lakes in the next 24-36 hours. The low will reach 995mb to 999mb Friday morning and early afternoon as it passes east from Ontario into Quebec. To the west a stout high pressure will be sliding south through the plains at a magnitude of 1040+ mb. Even though the distance between these two features is fairly wide, a tightening pressure gradient will reach its peak on Friday. The strongest winds will likely occur from midday into the evening hours with Gales likely along with the possibility of some Storm Force gusts. 40-45 knot gales look very reasonable over the water. Given the flow is north or even just east of north, the largest waves will be out over the open waters. That said, we are looking at 8 to 13 footers in the nearshore waters. Given along shore flow and water levels (near 579ft) that are 2.5 feet below advisory (582.5ft) we are not expecting any lakeshore flood issues in our area. Small Craft Advisory begins this evening and lasts into Friday morning. A Gale Warning is in place from Friday morning into Friday night. Two items we will be watching are... 1) do we need to jump into the Gale earlier as some models are showing gales in the 06Z-12Z time frame tonight and 2) how much will the wind touch storm force tomorrow. Do not see either as a high probability at this point and will leave the headlines unchanged. Waterspouts will be possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning before the wind truly ramps up. The stronger winds tends to shear apart waterspouts. Much of this activity will remain over the lake given northerly flow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke  391 FXUS63 KMKX 160552 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Blustery northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph today, especially along the lakeshore. - High-end gale force winds are expected over Lake Michigan today through this evening. A waterspout or two will be possible this afternoon and night. - Temperatures to drop just below freezing (inland from Lake Michigan) tonight into Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas. A Frost Advisory is in effect elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today through Friday Night: The winds increased quickly across MN, IA and southern WI last evening as low pressure strengthened over northeast IL and southern Lake Michigan. The cyclogenesis was in response to a strong and amplifying mid level trough digging into the Upper Great Lakes region and the right entrance region of the upper jet overhead. Strong cold air advection is underway with these blustery west winds over southern WI. The winds dried out the low levels and ended the drizzle. However, areas toward central WI are just on the north side of the stronger isallobaric winds which is keeping the low clouds and drizzle lingering there longer. Another push of cold air advection will arrive mid morning in southern WI as that mid level trough makes its way across WI. This will turn the winds more northwesterly and give the gusts another boost. By late this afternoon, strong north winds will be rushing down Lake Michigan and also through WI in the wake of that trough. Expect peak wind gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range during the late afternoon. Highest gusts will be right along the lakeshore. They should remain just below wind advisory criteria (45 mph) but this will be the place to watch. With the cold air flowing over the relatively warm water of Lake Michigan, there will be a lot of low level instability and thus a chance for a few thunderstorms. Also with this instability will come the potential for a waterspout or two over the southern open waters. The strong winds will probably limit that potential, but the ingredients are there. The 850mb temps will drop below freezing this afternoon and remain there through tonight as a cold air mass briefly drops in. With winds and clouds diminishing after sunset, and especially after midnight as surface high pressure quickly pushes in, we will have the chance to decouple and allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s by late evening and are expected to bottom out at around 30 degrees (28 to 31) inland from Lake Michigan early Saturday morning. We upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning (this includes Sheboygan county) and added a Frost Advisory for the rest of the lakeshore counties (Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha). Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Saturday through Thursday: Temperatures will quickly recover on Saturday as the low exits and strong high pressure sets up over the Midwest. Yet another surface trough developing in the Northern Plains will keep our pressure gradient tight over WI on Sat, so expect breezy southwest winds (but only to around 25 mph) and highs recovering into the mid to upper 50s. Breezy southwest winds will continue Sunday and highs should manage to reach the lower 60s. The warm-up will continue through Thursday as we largely remain in southerly flow. Highs will be in the 60s, but get up to around 70 by Wednesday. The weather will remain largely dry from Saturday through Thursday. There is one weak shortwave that cold bring a period of clouds and a few sprinkles Wed nt. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 1252 AM CDTFri Oct 16 2026 Gusty westerly winds helped to dry out the low levels which ended the LIFR ceilings and areas of drizzle. While areas toward central WI are still stuck in that lower stuff for now, that will dry out as the night goes on. Ceilings improved to MVFR and will remain there through the mid to late morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by noon and then to the north by late afternoon. The north winds will pack a punch this afternoon and early evening as colder air rushes into the region. Clouds will diminish in coverage during the evening and winds will diminish overnight. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Low pressure of 29.7 inches over northeast IL will deepen to around 29.4 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes today. Expect a northerly wind shift tonight to increase to high- end gales by late Friday morning as the low departs while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds into the Plains. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night. Light rain will continue over the north half overnight, with drier conditions over the south half. Lake effect showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the day along the back side of departing low pressure. A few waterspouts are possible in the afternoon showers/thunderstorms, particularly over the south half of Lake Michigan. As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in northern Manitoba through the weekend. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday, primarily over the north half. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  292 FXUS64 KBRO 160549 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, and markedly cooler changes along with multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) Friday into the weekend. - Northerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph Friday into Saturday. - Medium (30-50%) rain shower chances on Friday along the cold front. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Major changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place in the next 12-24 hours across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Multiple weather hazards including a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory are in effect ahead of a strong cold front, which is now pushing through central Texas, that will sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The cold front will arrive over the Rio Grande Valley sometime during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will have enough time to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the valley before the cold front pushes through. Immediately behind the cold front is a strong, sprawling 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system. The combination of the cold front and Canadian High will result in tight isobars or an enhanced pressure gradient over the region. Ultimately, this will result in strong, stiff north winds developing Friday afternoon. Many computer models continue to show north winds 15-30 mph with peak gusts as high as 45-55+ mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday and Saturday for much of Deep South Texas to take into account the strong winds. These strong wind will result in multiple coastal and marine hazards Friday through Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). Drier air will build into the region behind the fropa on Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop through the day on Friday/Friday night with little to no recovery. Due to the combination of lower relative humidity values and strong winds, we've decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Friday/Friday night. Another Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday. Any rain showers are expected to be light to moderate. Much cooler temperatures will develop Friday night through Saturday night with lows in the 50s most places. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rebound back to warmer than normal levels (high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s) Tuesday through Friday of next week as a 591 hpa heat dome builds over the region. There is a chance for additional showers Monday night into Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The passage of a cold front on Friday will bring breezy to windy generally northerly winds at that time. A TEMPO has been included for the possibility of showers and is based on the HRRR model. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds to the region Friday into Saturday. These winds will result in multiple coastal/marine hazards Friday into Sunday (at least). A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 10AM Friday to 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory are in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from 1PM Friday to 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Friday morning to Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 61 73 61 / 40 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 58 75 57 / 30 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 60 76 59 / 40 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 58 75 56 / 50 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 67 73 68 / 50 20 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 62 73 61 / 40 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$  619 FXUS64 KLZK 160534 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 -Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the central and north central half of the state through early this morning. -Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on today over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for today. -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A cold front continues to push through the state bringing gusty north to northwest winds behind the boundary. An area of showers will move across parts of north and central Arkansas early this morning will diminish around sunrise in eastern Arkansas. MVFR cigs across northern terminals will lifting to VFR cigs around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty north to northwest winds will persist through the late afternoon, then gradually diminish as the front and upper trough exit the state and push east of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 46 67 40 / 00 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...76  501 FXUS64 KTSA 160531 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gusty north winds will occur behind a cold front tonight into Friday. An advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures get cool enough Friday and Saturday nights to support potential frost conditions across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has now cleared the forecast area. A tight gradient behind the front will support gusty north winds tonight into Friday. The latest short-term guidance indicates advisory-level gusts are possible, especially on the ridge tops in the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. A wind advisory has been issued from 09Z tonight to 18Z Friday for gusts reaching 45 and perhaps topping 50 mph locally. The Oklahoma Mesonet rainfall map shows that far southeast Oklahoma has picked up very little if any rain with this recent event. By afternoon, this area will see humidities dropping into the 30 to 40 percent range while north winds remain gusty. With fuels remaining fairly dry and favorable, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this area. A much cooler day is in store for Friday, with afternoon high temps in the 50s to mid 60s well below average for this time of year. Lingering low cloud cover, gusty north winds and maybe some patchy drizzle will lead to a pretty raw day over the Ozarks. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lingering low clouds over the Ozarks Friday night are expected to hold low temps up around 40 degrees and will prevent frost conditions from developing. However, to the west of the expected low cloud shield across far NE OK near the KS border, low temps in the mid 30s are expected to support frost development. A frost advisory will be needed with the next forecast update if this trend continues. Clouds are not expected to be a factor by Saturday night, and with the surface ridge either close by or overhead, conditions may be favorable in more areas for frost development. A warming trend will commence over the weekend with ridging aloft and at the surface maintaining quiet weather. This warming trend will continue sharply upward as we head into next week, with 80 degree highs returning Wednesday. An upper trough is expected to become established over the western CONUS with downstream ridging over the Plains. Dry weather is expected to persist until the upper trough starts its trek toward the Plains. The latest ensemble data suggests this may not happen until the end of next week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR prior to sunrise, and will remain VFR for the rest of the forecast period. Wraparound clouds around 4K feet will likely prevail for much of the day Friday before clearing after sunset. North winds will gust to near 30 knots at times through Friday before diminishing after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 39 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 43 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 43 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 58 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 53 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 39 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 54 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 39 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 &&.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-376. AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05  476 FXUS66 KPQR 160555 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1055 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures through Friday. Strongest east winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge of high pressure building over the region. High pressure east of the Cascades will maintain low level offshore flow through Friday morning. Pressure gradients between Troutdale and the Dalles has peaked around -6.5 mb which is producing east wind gusts of around 25-35 mph across much of the Portland Metro area, with higher gusts up to 50-55 mph at wind prone and higher terrain areas within the Columbia River Gorge. Model guidance suggests pressure gradients remain around -4 to -6 mb through late Friday morning before easing Friday afternoon. Sunny skies today combined with the dry, offshore flow and mid-level (850 mb) temperatures warming to around 17-18 C will allow afternoon highs to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations reaching 80 degrees, including at the coast. On Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east as an upper level trough lifts NE over the Pacific. Expect increasing high cirrus clouds across the area as the flow aloft turns more southwesterly. Marine stratus will also begin pushing onto the coast as onshore flow returns later Friday afternoon, moderating temperatures at the coast. Otherwise, expect very similar temperatures across the interior lowlands through Friday afternoon. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. A shortwave trough pushing into western Washington early Saturday will send a weak cold across the region. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Dry conditions by afternoon with breezy northerly winds expected behind the front, with temperatures cooling back to near seasonable normals. Will need to watch for potential frost again as overnight temperatures cool Sat night, especially in the Upper Hood River Valley. /DH && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Night...Dry weather expected on Sunday as low amplitude shortwave ridging moves over the region. High confidence for near seasonable temperatures warming into the mid-60s inland and 50s along the coast. Potential for early morning frost continues Sunday night into Monday morning within the Upper Hood River Valley. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying farther offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday remain at around 15-25% along the coast and Coast Range, and 5-15% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. DH/10 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Saturday...Upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the exception of deteriorated conditions along the coast overnight through the early afternoon and low chances within the interior lowlands overnight. Specifically, there is a 50-60% chance of IFR and 40-50% chance of LIFR conditions along the coast between 13-23Z Fri, earliest at KONP and latest at KAST. As for inland terminals, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions between 11-18Z Fri, with the highest chances at KEUG. Expect mostly easterly winds until 18Z Fri, then becoming light and variable through the rest of the TAF period. The central and southern Willamette Valley will likely remain light and variable through the TAF period. Elevated winds at and east of KTTD will decrease towards 18-21Z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Breezy easterly winds continue to decrease tonight, with east winds around 4-6 kt expected through the rest of the TAF period beyond 11Z Fri. Additionally, there is a low 10-15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs between 12-18Z Fri. ~12 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Light east/northeasterly winds are transitioning to north/northwesterly winds over the waters through tonight as a thermal trough slowly breaks down. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  610 FXUS62 KMFL 160534 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 134 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across interior and Southwest Florida today. Isolated to scattered activity possible for Southeast Florida mainly in the morning hours. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. - Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions, with elevated seas and potential for Gale force winds later this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today. As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly and steer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible. Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Some coastal SHRA activity is expected to linger the rest of tonight and into the morning, before shifting away from the east coast terminals and opening up VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. KAPF will have highest chances for impacts due to SHRA/TS. Winds today will shift to the SE around 10kts, with KAPF seeing a wind shift to the SW after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 West Kendall 90 77 87 75 / 30 30 90 70 Opa-Locka 90 77 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 Homestead 90 77 88 75 / 30 30 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 30 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 30 90 80 Pembroke Pines 90 77 88 74 / 40 30 90 80 West Palm Beach 89 76 86 74 / 60 40 90 80 Boca Raton 88 77 86 74 / 50 30 90 80 Naples 89 75 84 70 / 40 40 80 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  528 FXUS66 KLOX 160556 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1056 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...15/1054 PM. ***UPDATE*** The Santa Ana winds are well established over the area this evening, with offshore LAX-DAG gradient of 5.5 mb, and offshore LAX-BFL gradient of 4.6 mb, twice as strong as the gradients were 24 hours ago. Peak gusts reached 60-80 mph today, with the strongest winds occuring in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Expecting Santa Ana winds to shift further east and strengthen more overnight and into Friday morning. No significant changes in terms of the forecast for the winds, still thinking there is potential for mountain areas to see gusts up to 90 mph and stronger gusts up to 60 mph for the LA valleys, and Ventura valleys and coasts. One high resolution solution indicates significant more widespread downsloped winds developing southwest of the San Gabriel, Santa Susana and Santa Monica mountains after midnight until around 5AM. Peak winds shift to favor the Santa Susana Mountains and Ventura County after 5AM. Gusts during these times could exceed 60 mph at times. Temperatures were quite warm today, especially near the coasts where a few areas pushed the upper 90s. Friday, temperatures were warmed more for portions of Santa Barbara County and southern Ventura County, as the gradients should remain strongly offshore. Expecting more widespread 90s near the coasts, and isolated 100s. Offshore winds weaken Saturday and Sunday, leading to a cooling trend. ***From Previous Discussion*** Santa Ana winds arrived on schedule and with more aggressive speeds than expected. Some areas in the San Gabriel Mountains have already reported 70+ mph wind gusts today and models are still indicating additional upper level support Friday morning as well as offshore gradients from the east peaking between 8 and 9mb. So just making some minor tweaks for Friday based on today's conditions. Temperatures have been warmed a few degrees, especially at the coast where temps will be the warmest, even more so than the valleys. And based on today's wind speeds there's at least a 30-40% chance of wind gusts in the LA County mountains reaching 90mph and similar chances for valleys and Ventura county coastal areas to see wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Since even 1mb of offset in the gradients can result in 5 or more degrees offset in the temperatures, confidence in the exact highs is on the lower side but should be in the ball park. Also, overnight lows will, in general, be quite warm tonight across the coast and valleys. Some areas that stay windy all night may not drop below 75 and wouldn't be surprised if some areas stay above 80 all night. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Friday. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. For Sunday, all areas except the mountains and deserts will cool at least 3-6 degrees. Interior areas will warm as cold advection continues to weaken. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...15/230 PM. More cooling is in store on Monday as an upper low moves down the coast. Hgts will fall from 580 dam Sunday afternoon to 576dam Monday afternoon. Actual onshore flow will develop and will increase through the day. Some morning marine layer clouds may even develop over the Central Coast. Max temps will fall 4 to 8 degrees. This will bring max temps down to near normals. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though timing is still quite uncertain as are the amounts. Virtually all the solutions from the ENS and GEFS ensembles indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. It's a tricky pattern with the upper low dropping south along the California coast and a lot of uncertainnesshow far offshore and where it will turn inland. Might take another few days to have more confidence in amounts and timing. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so this needs to be followed closely, especially with the possibility of brush fires during the current strong Santa Ana winds. && .AVIATION...16/0247Z. At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively. KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected through the period. Moderate to low confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 18 to 23Z, with gusts up to 25 kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots. && .MARINE...15/839 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds late tonight and Friday. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica with winds/seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For Friday night and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...15/1224 PM. Moderate to strong offshore flow will peak around Friday, then slowly weaken through the weekend. During the peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 to 70 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, withlocalized gusts of 70 to 90 mph in the mountains. On Friday, winds will be unusually widespread affecting most of our area including areas that typically do not see Santa Ana winds. This includes much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 90 and 100 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 8 to 20 percent range, with poor overnight recoveries. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as the mountains and foothills of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. Residents in high fire risk areas should be prepared in case a fire starts. Review your evacuation plans...what would you bring, where would you go. Stay extra aware of your surroundings. Make sure your vehicle is fueled up. For everyone, avoid using anything that could spark a fire. Be prepared for power outages that are likely over a good portion of our areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Phillips/RAT MARINE...RAT/Ciliberti FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  547 FXUS61 KCLE 160556 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 156 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made to the forecast with this package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north across the region tonight. A few storms could produce strong gusts upwards of 50 MPH. 2) A cold front will sweep through the region early Friday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes bringing the chance for rain and gusty winds. 3) Coldest air of the season is expected Friday night and Saturday night with frost/freeze conditions expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will move northeast through the Great Lakes region this evening. A warm front will lift northeast across the local forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to enter the area from the west with the warm front this evening. There will be minimal instability (~500 J/kg) but plenty of bulk shear given a strong low level jet of 40-50 knots with the warm front. The potential for an isolated strong storm capable of producing a localized 50 MPH or greater wind gust, particularly across Northwest and North Central Ohio. SPC has maintained this area in their SWODY1 outlook. The potential for any strong to severe storm will diminish through the overnight hours as instability wanes. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will glide east through the morning hours on Friday as the aforementioned low continues to lift northeast across the Lower Great Lakes. Latest hi-res guidance show a line of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping east of I-71 after sunrise on Friday along and ahead of the cold front. The line of showers and scattered storms will exit to the east across noon on Friday but expect for lingering lake enhanced showers to linger through Friday night downwind of the lake as a surface trough drapes itself across the local area. Overall rainfall amounts with range between 0.25-0.50" with the highest amounts confined to Northwest Pennsylvania and the Cleveland metro given the longer duration lake enhanced rainfall with a Lake Huron connection. Locally higher rainfall possible in any thunderstorm. In addition to rainfall, winds and gusts will increase with the frontal passage in the CAA regime. Strong southwesterly winds will peak at 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH in the early morning hours on Friday. The strongest winds are expected across Northwest Ohio and along the lakeshore. Winds will turn northerly by Friday night but remain elevated before high pressure builds overhead on Saturday and winds decrease. KEY MESSAGE 3... A much cooler airmass will be in place behind the cold front as temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning fall into the mid 30s. The frost potential remains limited given strong wind speeds, lingering rain showers and persistent cloud cover. By Saturday night, lows fall into the low 30s across much of the forecast area with a mainly clear sky under high pressure. The probabilities for frost remain high outside of locations near the lakeshore given the relatively warm waters. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... It will be an unsettled TAF period with showers and low ceilings at times. A cold front will cross from west to east between 10-13z this morning. Ahead of the front there are some widely scattered, mainly light showers, with ceilings ranging widely from mostly MVFR/VFR to some IFR/LIFR at eastern locations such as CAK/YNG. A broken line of gusty showers may develop along the front itself, especially in the CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG vicinity. Behind the front ceilings should all settle into an MVFR range (perhaps brief IFR right behind the front at some sites), with a more widespread batch of light rain showers expected to fill in 13-17z and continue through the afternoon. A secondary front is expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z this evening. Some more moderate showers can accompany this secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites as MVFR ceilings persist into tonight. North-northwest winds aligning over Lake Erie will allow light to moderate lake effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of CLE. Winds are initially south-southwest at 7-15kt with some gusts to around 25kt. Have low-level wind shear included at all sites initially with a 40-50kt low-level jet overhead and marginal to no mixing. Winds shift west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with the first front, then more northerly this evening and tonight behind the secondary front. Winds will remain 10-15kt tonight, but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to Lake Erie, especially impacting CLE and ERI. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times through early Saturday. && .MARINE... East winds 10-15 knots will turn become southwesterly while increasing to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts northeast across the lake this evening. A cold front will sweep east across the lake Friday morning leading to winds turning northeasterly by late Friday afternoon. Wave heights will build to 5-10 feet during this time frame. A secondary trough will remain draped across Lake Erie Friday night which will lead to winds to shift northerly around 25-30 knots with waves of 8-11 feet. Small Craft Advisories for the entire lake have been issued from tonight through Saturday morning. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday allowing for winds to decrease and wave heights to subside through the daytime hours. Winds 10-15 knots turn southwesterly and continue through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...13  570 FXUS63 KPAH 160557 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dramatically cooler today as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs are forecast 27 to 32 degrees colder than yesterday. - Saturday night still looks to have a high potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week amid dry and settled weather with warm days and cool nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A very strong cold front is moving int the northwestern part of the CWA this morning. Along the front a few showers will remain possible through early morning but the main impact will be starkly lower temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts 30-35 mph are occurring immediately behind the front before tapering back to 20 to 25 mph. Today will feel much different from yesterday with highs likely struggling to break 60 during the day underneath fairly persistent low clouds. Behind the large shortwave trough pushing this front strong upper ridging builds in. Fairly breezy northwest winds are expected to persist through much of the day Saturday before the surface reflection of the upper ridge axis passes overhead Saturday night. At that point strong radiational cooling conditions set up with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Frost looks likely for a sizable chunk of the CWA, with a freeze very much possible in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. For messaging clarity will not issue a Frost Advisory with this shift but one will likely be required for at least part, if not all, of the CWA by Saturday night. Deep layer ridging looks to control the pattern for the remainder of the forecast period. With dry, and settled conditions with low humidity and large diurnal temperature swings, highs in the mid 70s lows in the mid 40s which is close to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong cold front sweeping in from the northwest, a period of gusts 25 to 35 kts is possible with the immediate frontal passage. Bouncy ceilings behind the front but prevailing low MVFR is presently anticipated for several hours behind the front. Gusty northwest winds (18 to 25 kts) are forecast through much of the TAF period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...  853 FXUS62 KJAX 160540 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 140 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Fog Early This Morning, with locally dense fog likely - Marine & Coastal Hazards Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Potential for Gales for Marine Waters Saturday through Monday night. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense this morning Surface high pressure ridge will weaken over the area through Today. Fog is expected to develop early this morning, and may become locally dense, especially toward sunrise. Once the fog lifts, a partly to mostly sunny day is forecast for Today, with west southwest flow helping to push temperatures above average. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over north central FL this afternoon and evening due to diurnal instability, and convergence along the east coast sea breeze. A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight, with strong high pressure building behind it. A few showers will be possible across NE FL ahead of the front. Winds will increase across the area following the frontal passage. Much drier air will sweep southeast into area overnight, with dewpoints over inland SE GA falling 15 to 20 degrees. Due to the timing of the front, a broad range in low temperatures is forecast, with low 60s over inland SE GA, to the lower 70s along the NE FL coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35-40 mph on Saturday through Sunday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas, which would necessitate a wind advisory. - Coastal hazards increase for this weekend, including Gales for marine waters, hazardous surf and rip currents, and beginning stages of elevated tidal water levels. Following the strong cold frontal passage Saturday morning, high pressure will build north of the region driving a surge of strong northerly to northeasterly winds over the local area, especially by the afternoon. Winds expected to range up to 15 to 25 mph with gusts easily reaching 35 mph in a number of areas and localized gusts of 40+ mph which may require a wind advisory. High pressure sitting to the north and northeast will sustain these elevated winds through Sunday night, accompanied by a chance of coastal showers. An overrunning condition does setup for a time on Saturday which will support some patches of rain over southeast parts of the forecast area, but rain amounts will be very light. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front bringing cooler daytime highs with readings in the 70s on Saturday, and slightly warmer at the coast. Highs Sunday only mid to upper 60s for southeast GA to I-10, and then lower 70s further south. Overnight lows for the weekend will range from the lower 50s inland over southeast GA, and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere, mildest in the coastal areas and north central FL. Coastal hazards escalate starting Saturday and persist through Sunday night, featuring high rip current risk and very rough surf, and elevated water levels/possible minor tidal flooding. Gale watches were posted for the marine waters starting Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Monday through Wednesday - Below normal temperatures this period Strong high pressure will remain anchored to the north and northeast driving a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow. Model guidance also shows a low pressure system located well offshore near 35N72W which will be nearly stationary or drift south, and may further enhance and prolong coastal impacts mainly in terms of surf heights. For our area, this translates into continued high risk of rip currents, rough and elevated surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Elevated water levels anticipated along the coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and the St Johns River basin mainly in the minor category. Winds will remain breezy to windy, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts reaching 35-40 mph along the coast. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken. Rain chances will be isolated to scattered range or about 15-25 percent for northeast FL coast but may reach as far as Highway 301 at times. Drier conditions expected further inland over northeast FL and for southeast GA. Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the lower to mid 70s Monday, trending to the mid to upper 70s mid week. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 50s inland, then upper 50s to lower 60s coast for Monday, and trending very gradually warmer into mid week as the low level flow slowly veers bringing in more modified air off the Atlantic. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Patchy to areas of fog are expected early this period, with restrictions expected. This fog will lift after sunrise, with a trend to VFR starting mid morning. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over north central FL, which may reach KSGJ later in the afternoon. The chance is too low for a KSGJ storm to include more than a VCTS at this time. An increase in winds will follow a frontal passage Tonight, but at this point, this change will occur just after this 06z TAF period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge over area will weaken Today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area Tonight, with strong high pressure building behind it. A period of elevated winds will be expected from Saturday through much of next week, with gales likely. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk Today. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy high afternoon dispersions today over inland southeast GA - Areas of high afternoon dispersion this weekend - Elevated nighttime dispersion along the coast Saturday night and Sunday night Southwest to west winds develop today ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area tonight. Moderate to strong north to northeast winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late tonight, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. For today, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog expected early this morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL this afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 61 70 50 / 0 10 10 0 SSI 86 67 74 58 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 88 68 74 57 / 0 20 20 0 SGJ 87 70 76 64 / 10 20 30 10 GNV 89 69 75 57 / 10 20 20 0 OCF 89 71 76 59 / 30 20 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Monday night for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$  600 FXUS64 KEWX 160557 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A strong cold front moves through the area through daybreak. Rain chances diminish through the overnight hours and end this morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas today with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts between 40-50 mph. - Cooler air ushers into the area and remains through the weekend, then a warming trend begins. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front is moving across the area with its impact first seen in the northwest portion of the forecast area and spreading south to southeast through daybreak. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Edwards Plateau early this morning where some pockets of heavy rainfall have been observed. Drier and windy conditions behind the front will erode this activity through the morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect at the time of this AFD issuance but could be cancelled a few hours early. Post frontal conditions will be evident by a gusty north wind ushering in cooler air. Northerly wind from 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph are expected to continue into the early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7pm to account for these gusty winds. Cloudy morning skies begin to break up slightly in the afternoon with high temperatures today from the low 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will make it feel even cooler. Wind eases in the west but remains gusty from the Hill Country eastward overnight through Saturday morning. During this time, forecast wind speeds will be more 15-25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph which coincides with the expiration of the Wind Advisory. Lows overnight cool into the low to mid 40s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country into the mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere. Breezy wind eases through the day on Saturday. Less clouds are expected this day with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The coolest temperatures of the period are forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning lows from the low and mid 40s over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees elsewhere. Light wind and mild temperatures from the middle 60s to middle 70s are expected Sunday, then a warming trend returns for the week with daily highs and lows creeping back to above normal levels by Wednesday. Dry conditions continue with possibly some low rain chances returning at the very end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Concerns through the early morning hours will be centered on the arrival of a strong cold front along with some convection, primarily out west along the Rio Grande. Based on radar trends and incoming hi- res models, we will continue with prevailing RA in low end MVFR vsbys at DRT through 09Z, with trends easing back to -RA 09-12Z. We have also removed TSRA at DRT as lightning trends continue to trend downward. The arrival of the cold front has only been adjusted slightly based on recent observational trends. Some light showers may briefly develop along the front into the I-35 corridor. We have shortened the window for TEMPO -SHRA based on radar trends and hi- res guidance. Gusty north winds are still expected through today and little change was made over the previous forecast. Some MVFR cigs will also filter in behind the front, but conditions should trend back to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon as much drier air in the lower levels moves in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 50 68 48 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 49 68 45 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 50 68 46 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 46 65 44 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 49 66 47 / 60 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 48 67 44 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 51 70 47 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 50 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 52 69 49 / 20 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...Platt  038 FXUS63 KDLH 160544 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue into this evening and overnight, the most over northwest Wisconsin. - Mild and dry conditions to follow rain on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday. - Next low chance for precipitation not until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings continue early this morning at all terminals with areas of rain showers. Those low ceilings and rain showers should slowly make their way out of the area through mid morning, with conditions returning to VFR for all terminals by midday. Gusty north winds will move into the region from west to east, with gusts of 25-30 knots possible, peaking between 12-18Z this morning, and then steadily diminishing through the afternoon and evening. Expect fairly calm conditions and clear skies overnight into Saturday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes will bring hazardous marine conditions to western Lake Superior. A Gale Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for all nearshore zones and the outer Apostle Islands. North winds of 20 to 30 kt with gales to 40 to 45 kt will drive waves to 6 to 9 ft along the South Shore, 8 to 11 ft across the outer Apostle Islands with occasional waves to 14 ft, and 3 to 6 ft on the North Shore. Winds and waves will subside Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure approaches. Southwest winds will ramp up again on Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. Gales are possible as well in areas of the near shore waters, and will be more narrowed down in the next couple days. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread rainfall across the Northland continues through this evening and tonight. Strong north winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will arrive Friday morning, but lingering moisture from the exiting system will keep relative humidity values above 35%. On Saturday, high pressure will lead to dry air aloft which will mix down to the surface. Minimum relative humidity will drop to between 25 and 30 percent Saturday afternoon with southwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph, producing near critical fire weather conditions. These windy conditions will linger into Sunday, but RH will increase as well so there will be less concern for fire weather. Going into the rest of the weekend and next week, mild and generally dry weather will persist, keeping humidity somewhat lower with lighter winds until low shower chances return on Wednesday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  011 FXUS63 KGRB 160543 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1243 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain continues tonight, becoming scattered into Friday morning. Most locations should see an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Friday night as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain chances through Friday... Radar and surface obs show widespread stratiform rain ongoing late this evening as cold front infringes on northwest Wisconsin and phased upper trough approaches the Great Lakes. Expect rain to become more scattered in coverage overnight into Friday morning with the loss of moisture advection and upper jet support, though most locations should still pick up an addition 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. Probabilities for receiving 0.5" of rain through tonight sit at around 30 to 60%, highest over far northeast Wisconsin where modest mid-level FGEN resides in proximity to the surface low. Rain then tapers off from west to east late Friday morning, though wrap around moisture may keep showers or drizzle around over east-central Wisconsin through the afternoon. Winds... Gradient winds ramp up Friday morning as a surge of CAA accompanies northwesterly wind shift and building high pressure over the Plains. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 40 to 45 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, resulting in a high confidence (60 to 90%) setup for widespread surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Only caveat will be Door County, where locally higher gusts will be bumping up against advisory criteria. HREF currently shows a 20 to 40% chance for gusts exceeding 44 mph over northern Door, with sustained winds also coming within a mph or two of criteria. Current thinking would be to hold off on an advisory for the time being due to low confidence, though CAM trends will have to be monitored on subsequent shifts. Temperatures... Intrusion of arctic high paired with stout northwesterly flow will result in a brief spell of well below normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. Highs will struggle to meet 50 degrees for many locations, with lows then plummeting into the mid 20s to low 30s. Setup still looking favorable (50 to 70%) for a hard freeze Friday night, so have retained the Freeze Watch. A rapid pattern shift to more seasonable temperatures then occurs over the weekend as return flow sets up and upper flow de- amplifies. As such, highs are progged to read mainly in the mid to upper 60s through at least mid-week, with several shots at seeing 70 degrees. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern then looks to set up toward the end of next week as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Light rain or drizzle will continue overnight and then on Friday morning. IFR CIGS will improve into the MVFR category, then VFR by early to mid afternoon. North/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30-40 kts expected late morning through mid afternoon before winds ease during the late afternoon and early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds ramp up following cold FROPA later this evening. HREF probabilistic guidance is currently showing a 65 to 95% signal for 10-meter wind gusts exceeding 39 mph, which should translate pretty well to gale force gusts over our marine zones. Waves will build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake during this time. Have opted to throw out a wind down Small Craft Advisory along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters on this shift, as waves remain elevated through around 08Z Saturday as winds shift to more westerly. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin  183 FXUS63 KJKL 160545 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times through tonight. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night into Monday morning for many area valleys. && .UPDATE... Issued at 125 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 1143 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Made some minor edits to Sky grids and updated hourly temperatures for the remainder of the overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 555 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are divergingmodel solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026 With the departure of the showers off to the northeast, southwesterly low-level winds and resulting LLWS will be found for a time across the area while a strong cold front approaches from the west. LLWS is most likely for sites north and west of JKL, as the low-level jet will be weakening as it moves east across the area early this morning. Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly with the cold front crossing the area during the daytime hours. Expect sustained winds near 15 kts and higher gusts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the afternoon as the front passes. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and poorer conditions along with the chance for -SHRA through evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC/GREIF  405 FXUS61 KOKX 160553 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 153 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast to move through. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal system approaches from the west overnight. The associated warm front lifts through later this morning, followed by a cold frontal passage late this afternoon into early evening. MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east through 9Z, then likely lowering to IFR shortly thereafter. Showers also develop and move through during this time and restrict vsbys. Showers taper by late morning, but conditions likely remain MVFR into the afternoon, before possibly improving to VFR for NYC and LoHud Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, but it also remains possible they remain MVFR through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. SSE flow around 10 kt early this morning veers S then SW into late morning, with gusts toward 20 developing. Gusts continue into the afternoon 20-25 kt. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW Friday evening into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of changing flight categories this morning and later today could vary by an hour or two. Amendments likely. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm. Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR -SHRA. NW winds G25kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but continues to look less likely at this time. For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and central sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, while the western sound and harbor look to not reach SCA. By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...DR MARINE...JP  452 FXUS65 KBOI 160555 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1155 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the western United States will remain the dominant weather feature across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Friday night. This will keep atmospheric conditions stable, resulting in clear skies, light surface winds, and temperatures running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry surface layer conditions will also contribute to mild afternoons and efficient radiational cooling at night. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 Sunday and Monday, temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A weak cold front on Sunday cools temps a few degrees from Saturday. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough becomes a cut off low in southern California. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and some breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. The low becomes cut off on Tuesday, as the earliest models show the cold front move through. There is still some uncertainty, inherent to cut off lows, that shows the cold front moving through Wednesday. When it passes, it will cool temps down to normal, low 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover, and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1154 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL tomorrow. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions from valley fog near KBKE-KBNO again tonight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SE-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM