855 FXUS65 KPIH 160311 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 911 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions are also expected through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure remains in place through the weekend with temperatures continuing to warm to around or slightly above normal. Saturday looks to be the warmest with afternoon highs rising into the mid 60s for many. Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend into the beginning of the work week. Beginning early next week, an upper low drops south along the west coast. Increasing southerly flow looks to bring moisture north into East Idaho by Tuesday, possibly as early as late Monday for some. The southerly flow MAY be able to enhance precipitation into portions of the central mountains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble means dig the upper low south into southern Nevada in a split flow pattern through late Wednesday, then slowly weakens and ejects the trough northeast through the remainder of the week. Clusters tell a much different story with significant differences in treatment of the split low. NBM appears to split the difference, keeping East Idaho unsettled and cool for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 910 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clear skies and light winds are expected the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will be in control of our forecast for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Highs will continue to gradually warm with most returning to the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions across the area mean min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the Central Mountains on Friday, which looks to be the driest day of the next several. It's not until next week that we see highs drop back into the 50s and precipitation chances return to the forecast. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Messick  981 FXUS64 KLUB 160315 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Cool and breezy conditions continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning. - Temperatures warm back near normal next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture responsible for the last couple of days of active weather has finally begin shifting to our east. Dry weather is now in place and will continue through the near term as flow aloft weakens and subsidence persists on the backside of the departing system. Blustery north winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into most of Friday in the wake of our earlier cold front, with sustained speeds expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph range given surface pressure rises on the order of 3 to 5 mb in 3 hours. Lingering high cloud cover and the magnitude of the northerly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too dramatically overnight, but we still expect lows in the 40s area- wide early Friday morning. Friday will be the chilliest day this area has seen in quite some time with temperatures only expected to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. In fact, the last time that Lubbock measured a daytime high below 60 degrees was way back on Mar. 16. Winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and will decrease quite quickly by Friday evening as a surface ridge settles over the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The first freeze of the season still looks likely for portions of the region late Friday night through early Saturday morning. This will be driven by conditions favorable for excellent radiational cooling, with clearing skies and very light winds as the surface ridge builds directly overhead. General consensus of guidance still favors lows on Saturday morning in the upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and low 30s over most of the South Plains. Should clouds be slower to clear than currently expected, temps may be able to remain above freezing, however confidence is high enough in temps near or just below 32F to support a Freeze Watch over the entire Caprock from Friday night through early Saturday morning. This would be an early first freeze for this region, with the climatological average first freeze for many locations still two or three weeks out. Surface flow will gradually obtain a stronger southerly component on Saturday as surface ridging shifts to our east, but will be weak enough to support one more very cool day with highs still in the 50s and low 60s Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will become more robust Sunday and beyond, which combined with the building of a modest upper ridge axis will boost temperatures back towards normal for this time of year next week. Models are in good agreement keeping our area dry through at least Tuesday, with mid/upper moisture and precipitation chances possibly returning during the second half of the week as a deep upper low settles to our west. For now though, a dry forecast is still favored with poor model consensus at this lead time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with low stratus has exited all terminals this evening with dry and breezy conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Expect northerly winds around 15-25G35KTs at all terminals overnight through much of the day Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Fridaynight through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...12  051 FXUS61 KOKX 160319 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast to move through. 2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday. As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure retreats to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the west. The associated warm front will pass through Friday morning into early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage during the late afternoon into early evening hours. VFR until late tonight, then showers and MVFR cigs will overspread the area from west to east after 06Z with ceilings lowering from MVFR to IFR. Following the warm frontal passage, expect gradual improvement with VFR conditions possible for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short time later, except for KGON which could take much of the day. It does remain possible that most terminals, especially eastern terminals, remain at MVFR or lower through the day. A fine line of heavy showers or thunderstorms looks likely with the frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday. Winds mainly SSE under 10kt. Speeds increase late tonight to around 10 kt at some coastal sites. Winds will then veer to the SW as the warm front passes with the potential for gusts to around 20kt. Gusts continue into the afternoon 20-25kt becoming mainly SW. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW Friday evening into the overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of lowering flight categories overnight into Friday morning could vary by 1-2 hours. Same with the improvement late morning into the afternoon. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z Friday with the approach of a cold front. A few gusts of 40-50kt are possible with any stronger storm. Chance of MVFR in showers overnight Friday into Saturday (following the cold frontal passage). .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the evening, with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25kt. Guidance is also trending toward a round of post-frontal showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance of MVFR with these showers. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but continues to look less likely at this time. For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and central sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, while the western sound and harbor look to not reach SCA. By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions. Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...MW MARINE...JP  187 FXUS64 KMEG 160326 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1026 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through early week. - Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55, as winds gust up to 30 mph along dry fuels. Elevated winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sunset Friday evening. - Dry weather is expected to persist over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A muggy October night is present across Mid-South after another record-breakingly warm day. Friday will be a different story as a strong cold front, currently extending across southeastern Missouri and central Arkansas, sweeps across our area. Temperatures and dewpoints will begin to plummet overnight and into the day Friday. Winds will also begin to sustain around 15- 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph early Friday and persisting through sunset. A combination of abnormally dry fuels, decreased relative humidity, and elevated winds will lead to an elevated fire danger threat Friday. Avoid any recreational burning and properly extinguish and dispose of cigarettes Friday as wildfires can start easily and spread quickly under the aforementioned conditions. High temperatures Friday will be 15-30 degrees lower than Thursday with readings in the mid 60s to upper 70s. As ample dry air and lowered dewpoints will be associated with this cold front, little to no precipitation is expected as this front moves across the Mid-South Friday. Cold air advection and an almost polar in nature airmass will trail behind this leading front resulting in a below normal weekend with cool mornings and pleasant days. Sunday morning will be the chilliest over the next seven days with areas mainly over West Tennessee seeing readings in the upper 30s and the rest of the area in the lower 40s. NBM probs have a 30-50% chance of seeing lows <37 degrees over mainly Northwest Tennessee resulting in potential frost early Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to normal by Monday as cool high pressure begins to build slightly east of our area. Ensembles are hinting at an omega block setting up in the upper levels across the CONUS. Under this pattern, dry weather will continue over the next seven days and temperatures will begin to edge back above normal by Tuesday. This warming pattern will continue through the end of the week with much of the area seeing highs well into the 80s by as early as Wednesday. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front remains on track for passage early Friday morning. Primary impact will be gusty NW winds that should remain fairly constant in speed and direction through the day. A post- frontal MVFR deck should scatter out by late morning/early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South beginning early Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity values will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon. Elevated 20 ft northwest winds around 15-20 mph will accompany decreased relative humidity. Areas generally along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, will result in an elevated fire danger risk Friday afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB  590 FXUS64 KOHX 160339 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of the cold front to our doorstep. Even though the cold front is mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some showers on the KY/TN state line. Not looking at any meaningful QPF with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible. Highs tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to the mid 70s in the SE. The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s. So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll be needing them this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning. After the cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by mid week. Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week. The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR will continue through this evening with light SSW winds. A cold front will move in late tonight into Friday morning bringing an extended period of gusty NNW winds to 22KT and widespread MVFR cigs. Isolated light showers are possible after frontal passage, but coverage and impacts appear too limited to include in tafs. Cigs are expected to lift to VFR late Friday for CKV/BNA/MQY, but a lot of clouds and gusty winds will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 69 47 62 / 0 20 0 0 Clarksville 57 66 44 62 / 0 20 0 0 Crossville 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 10 0 Columbia 63 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 62 70 44 57 / 0 30 10 0 Jamestown 62 71 42 54 / 0 40 20 0 Lawrenceburg 63 73 45 61 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 58 64 45 60 / 10 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....13  672 FXUS63 KICT 160342 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1042 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will continue to decrease across southeast Kansas into this evening with minor localized flooding concerns. - Much cooler temperatures are forecast tonight through Sunday with frost potential likely early Saturday morning as lows drop into the lower 30s. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of central KS where lows near 30 are expected. - Warming trend expected for Monday through Thursday with storm chances returning mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, an upper trough is sliding across the northern Plains with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Upper ridging has started building into the western CONUS. At the surface, a low is over northern Missouri with a cold front draping down through southeast Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. Showers are starting to taper off in southeast Kansas with chances continuing to decrease into this evening. As we continue into tonight, colder air will move in with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on early Friday morning. For Friday, the colder airmass with falling heights/decreased thickness will settle in, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low 50s across the area. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal making this the coldest fall temperatures we have seen so far. As the upper trough and associated surface low propagate east throughout the day Friday, an increased pressure gradient will remain over eastern Kansas. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday night, shifting a surface high to over Kansas. Winds will calm significantly into Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower 30s, likely resulting in widespread frost across the area except potentially for far southeast Kansas where lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible. Lows near 30 are likely in central KS, so hoisted a Freeze Watch for this potential. Cooler conditions will persist into Saturday as expansive high pressure remains over eastern Kansas with decreased thickness. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday afternoon with lows dropping into the upper 30s on early Sunday morning. On Sunday, an upper shortwave and its associated surface low will slide across southern Canada with surface troughing extending into the central Rockies, increasing the pressure gradient across Kansas. Breezy conditions will return especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. Sustained winds are forecast between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with the strongest winds expected in central KS. High temperatures will return to the 60s on Sunday afternoon with lows in the mid 40s early Monday morning. Guidance suggests a low chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday, though confidence is low so kept mention of this out at this time. For Monday and beyond, upper ridging will continue to influence the Plains, promoting a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Highs will return to the 70s with readings near 80 on both Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for showers and storms will potentially arrive mid to late next week as a deep upper trough over the western CONUS will traverse towards the Rockies on Thursday, though there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs as surface high pressure buildssouthward. Northwest winds will increase for late tonight and remain gusty through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish around sunset on Friday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...CDJ  694 FXUS63 KJKL 160343 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1143 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times through Friday night. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night into Monday morning for many area valleys. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Made some minor edits to Sky grids and updated hourly temperatures for the remainder of the overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 555 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A warm front will continue moving northeast along and west of the Cumberland Plateau escarpment this evening, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over the next couple of hours generally along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. As shower and thunderstorm activity retreats north of the area by ~03z, southwesterly low-level winds and resulting LLWS will then develop briefly across the area as a strong cold front approaches from the west. LLWS is most likely for sites north and west of JKL, as the low-level jet will be weakening as it moves east across the area overnight. Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly as the cold front crosses the area during the daytime hours Friday, with wind gusts near 20 kts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the daytime period. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and lower conditions along with the chance for -SHRA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  672 FXUS63 KICT 160342 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1042 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will continue to decrease across southeast Kansas into this evening with minor localized flooding concerns. - Much cooler temperatures are forecast tonight through Sunday with frost potential likely early Saturday morning as lows drop into the lower 30s. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of central KS where lows near 30 are expected. - Warming trend expected for Monday through Thursday with storm chances returning mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, an upper trough is sliding across the northern Plains with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Upper ridging has started building into the western CONUS. At the surface, a low is over northern Missouri with a cold front draping down through southeast Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. Showers are starting to taper off in southeast Kansas with chances continuing to decrease into this evening. As we continue into tonight, colder air will move in with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on early Friday morning. For Friday, the colder airmass with falling heights/decreased thickness will settle in, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low 50s across the area. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal making this the coldest fall temperatures we have seen so far. As the upper trough and associated surface low propagate east throughout the day Friday, an increased pressure gradient will remain over eastern Kansas. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday night, shifting a surface high to over Kansas. Winds will calm significantly into Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower 30s, likely resulting in widespread frost across the area except potentially for far southeast Kansas where lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible. Lows near 30 are likely in central KS, so hoisted a Freeze Watch for this potential. Cooler conditions will persist into Saturday as expansive high pressure remains over eastern Kansas with decreased thickness. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday afternoon with lows dropping into the upper 30s on early Sunday morning. On Sunday, an upper shortwave and its associated surface low will slide across southern Canada with surface troughing extending into the central Rockies, increasing the pressure gradient across Kansas. Breezy conditions will return especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. Sustained winds are forecast between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with the strongest winds expected in central KS. High temperatures will return to the 60s on Sunday afternoon with lows in the mid 40s early Monday morning. Guidance suggests a low chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday, though confidence is low so kept mention of this out at this time. For Monday and beyond, upper ridging will continue to influence the Plains, promoting a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Highs will return to the 70s with readings near 80 on both Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for showers and storms will potentially arrive mid to late next week as a deep upper trough over the western CONUS will traverse towards the Rockies on Thursday, though there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs as surface high pressure buildssouthward. Northwest winds will increase for late tonight and remain gusty through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish around sunset on Friday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...CDJ  694 FXUS63 KJKL 160343 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1143 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times through Friday night. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night into Monday morning for many area valleys. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1143 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Made some minor edits to Sky grids and updated hourly temperatures for the remainder of the overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 555 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A warm front will continue moving northeast along and west of the Cumberland Plateau escarpment this evening, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over the next couple of hours generally along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. As shower and thunderstorm activity retreats north of the area by ~03z, southwesterly low-level winds and resulting LLWS will then develop briefly across the area as a strong cold front approaches from the west. LLWS is most likely for sites north and west of JKL, as the low-level jet will be weakening as it moves east across the area overnight. Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly as the cold front crosses the area during the daytime hours Friday, with wind gusts near 20 kts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the daytime period. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and lower conditions along with the chance for -SHRA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  731 FXUS63 KEAX 160345 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity comes to an end across the area by this evening. - An initial cold front moves through the area this afternoon, followed by a more significant push of cold air later tonight, quickly dropping temperatures below seasonal norms. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Pattern evolution will be the name of the game today and to end the work-week, which in turn will result in a significant cool down. The mid-upper level large scale pattern across CONUS is generally ridge-trough-ridge, including a pair of troughs moving across portions of the central CONUS. The southern stream trough continues to come off the Colorado Front Range and has more recently become an open wave. This has pushed a surface low over the CWA early this afternoon, too aiding in pushing majority of shower activity out of the CWA. Its associated cold front has begun to move into NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and will begin to cool down the area. Unfortunately though, a good amount of low-level moisture remains behind the front, and will allow dreary and overcast conditions to continue through much or all of the remaining day-time period. Scattered showers to isolated general thunder will remain possible near and ahead of this frontal passage as well. More significant changes come to the area as the northern stream mid- level trough digs out of the Canadian Plains and into the Northern Plains. Along with its associated surface low, a secondary cold front will drop through the area this evening and overnight. It will include a strong push of drier air and CAA, rapidly plunging the area back below seasonal norms for mid-October. Hi-res guidance, such as HRRR/RAP, have noted a period of enhanced wind gusts with this push (strong subsidence), including run-to-run depictions of gusts into the low-40s mph between 01z-06z this evening. NBM did come in notably lighter during this window, have blended in HRRR/RAP solutions to signal the increasingly likely period of enhanced wind gusts. By Friday morning, the much cooler conditions will have settled across the area with expected lows in the lower 40s for most. Skies may initially be on the clear side, but an area of stratus may drop through as the core of the northern stream mid- level trough passes through the region. Breezy conditions will continue through the day Friday as well with NW to N winds around 20 mph and gusts 25 to 35 mph. Ongoing CAA will also limit warming through the day, with most forecast in the low 50s. Of note, did drop Friday highs a couple degrees below initial NBM, in conjunction with neighbors, to blend in ongoing colder hi-res guidance. Cloud cover extent and duration will ultimately be the determinant there. Friday night into Saturday morning, potential for the first freeze for NW/N portions of the CWA as skies clear and winds go light to calm across the area. Given the cooler trend in guidance, have coordinated a Freeze Watch for portions of the area with western and northern neighbors. Through the weekend, eastward departure of the mid-level trough will allow height rises and ridging to begin to spread across the central CONUS. This keeps the sensible weather abundantly quiet and on the seasonably cool to seasonable, but warming side. Expect temperatures to rise each day, yielding mid-upper 50s Saturday and mid-upper 60s Sunday. The start of the work week will see the weekend warming trend persist with continued southerly surface flow and gradually warming 850mb temps. While mid-level flow will be more southwesterly in nature and a Baja California mid-level cutoff low gets absorbed into the flow, precipitation chances remain minimal through at least mid- week among the majority of members within ensemble guidance. Prevailing consensus remains for temperatures to rise back toward the mid to upper 70s through mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs to continue eroding overnight with breezy NW winds about 10-15 kts with occasional gusts of 25 kts. Marginally MVFR cloud deck builds in from the north Friday morning with generally 15 kt NNW winds and gusts up to 30-35 kts during the day. Around sunset, winds will lighten and cloud cover will move out of the region, marking a return to VFR conditions late in the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Macko  954 FXUS63 KLSX 160348 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1048 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will bring blustery northwest winds an a sharp cooldown overnight. Below average temperatures are expected through Saturday, with morning frost increasingly likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. - A steady warmup is expected Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The focus of the short term period continues to be on the potential for showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon, followed by the passage of a fall-like cold front this evening and overnight. The latter will bring blustery northwest winds and a sharp cooldown, and it will feel a lot more like you'd expect for mid-October (or even later). As of early afternoon, a surface low was located across north- central Missouri, with a warm front extending east-southeastward into southwest Illinois, and a sharp cold front approaching the Kansas City metro area. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough was also noted across east-central and southeast Missouri, with locally enhanced surface convergence along it. This pre-frontal trough has been the focus for convection through the morning, and as of this writing weak and largely elevated thunderstorms have moved across the Mississippi River and into southwest Illinois. Ahead of these storms and the pre-frontal trough, deeper moisture, slightly enhanced instability (~1000J/kg MLCAPE), and backed (albeit weak) surface winds have developed. While cloud cover is still abundant, there has been at least some clearing, and this environment appears to be the most favorable area for strengthening storms over the next few hours. Wind shear is a bit weaker here than further west, where stronger mid/upper level flow exists, but there is just enough to support a low-topped supercell and a brief tornado or two, mostly likely before 3 PM as most of this activity should move east of the area by then. Overall though, confidence is not high that storms will become severe until after they exit the area. West of the pre-frontal trough, while bulk wind shear is a bit higher, veered surface winds and meager instability (in spite of more ample clearing), and a lack of redevelopment in high-resolution model guidance do not strongly suggest that more storms are likely upstream any later in the afternoon. While we likely will see some warm air advection showers, and also a few showers along the advancing cold front, but the probability of strong or severe storms in this area is low. Late this evening, the previously mentioned cold front will surge through the region, bringing strong cold air advection and blustery surface winds. While we don't expect Advisory-level wind speeds, gusts to 30-35 mph will be well within reason, particularly during the day tomorrow as mixing increases. Meanwhile, temperatures will drop quickly, with morning lows dipping into the 40s in most areas before warming only slightly into the 50s during the day thanks to the persistent cold air advection. After reaching the 90s just two days ago, temperatures Friday will be approximately 15 degrees below average. Brisk winds will persist through the day, and weaken in the evening and overnight, allowing for efficient cooling and low temperatures dropping into the low 40s to mid 30s Saturday morning. A few protected river valleys may even flirt with the freezing mark as well, especially in northeast Missouri and the Ozarks, and it's increasingly likely that these wind-protected areas will see some frost Saturday morning. In fact, NBM probabilities for minimum temperatures of 32 degrees or less increase to nearly 50% in northeast Missouri, and chances are likely similar in Ozark river valleys where small-scale cool air drainage contribute additional cooling. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 From Saturday onward, a slow, steady warming trend is expected to develop as an upper level ridge moves overhead, and south- southwesterly low level flow becomes re-established. Surface high pressure and a dry-continental airmass should also keep precipitation chances minimal. After a very chilly morning Saturday, temperatures are likely to rebound only into the low 60s, with a slight increase from the day before thanks largely to clear skies. Overnight, another very chilly night is expected, as surface winds will remain very light and radiative cooling is expected to be quite efficient. Current deterministic forecasts suggest that morning lows in the mid to upper 30s should be common area-wide, with another opportunity for a brief freeze in Ozark river valleys in particular thanks to cool-air drainage. Sunday morning should be the last opportunity for a freeze, although some patchy frost will be in play again Monday morning. From Sunday afternoon onward, southerly low level flow becomes firmly established, and temperatures will steadily warm each day through mid-week. Temperatures are expected to climb back to near average by Sunday afternoon, with high confidence (90+%) in above average temperatures Tuesday onward, and a reasonable chance to exceed 80 degrees (40-60%) Wednesday onward. Meanwhile, little additional precipitation is expected for the next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The cold front has pushed through the terminals, with gusty northwest winds and ceilings around 1500 feet AGL in its wake. There is still expected to be a break in the MVFR ceilings later tonight into early Friday morning before more widespread stratus moves back in from the northwest. Ceilings with this round are expected to be near 2000 feet AGL, though sub 2000 foot ceilings are expected for a few hours at KUIN. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...Gosselin  029 FXUS63 KOAX 160351 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds overnight into Friday morning. Wind chill drops into the upper 20s to mid 30s. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire CWA for late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning. - Dry conditions continue with a warming trend into next week. Next widespread chance for showers & storms won't be until late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low clouds are moving in from the north overnight tonight with gusty winds out of the north. Looking at the overall pattern, a deep upper-level trough is bringing a surge of northerly winds into the Northern Plains tonight. These winds are amplified by a strengthening pressure gradient as a broad ridge over the Intermountain West pushes into the Plains. Winds will be strongest toward daybreak tomorrow morning with northerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, potentially higher in northeast Nebraska. With windy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, we'll see wind chill fall to near or even below freezing across much of our area Friday morning. As the trough shifts off to the east and high pressure builds in, winds will relax going into the afternoon with highs warming into the low-to-mid 50s. This ridge slides east across the central CONUS bringing a transition back to southwesterly flow late Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s by Sunday morning. As southwesterly flow continues to advect in warmer air, we'll see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon with this warming trend continuing into next week. While the weather remains quiet, the upper-level pattern continues to be fairly unstable with a series of shortwaves moving through amplifying warm-air advection across our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures potentially reach near 80 by Wednesday afternoon. We're watching another deep trough forecast to slide down the West Coast and deepen through the week next week. Weak shortwaves ahead of the main trough Wednesday and Thursday could bring a low chance of showers or storms. Our next good chance for more widespread showers and storms looks to be later next week with the arrival of the main trough. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Conditions improving to mostly VFR this evening before low stratus with cigs around 2800 ft move in overnight. Northerly winds increase around 06-08Z with gusts 30-35kt likely. Occasional gusts to 40kt possible after daybreak. Winds will be weakening mid-morning through the afternoon with MVFR cigs clearing around 17-20Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy  020 FXUS65 KRIW 160350 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue overnight under cool northerly flow. Temperatures will drop to the low 30s and into the 20s late in the night into Friday morning across western and central Wyoming. Freeze warnings have been issued for those areas that have not already had a hard freeze (less than 28 F) this season. - High pressure develops over the Intermountain West, bringing dry and mild conditions Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s (and some 70s over parts of north-central WY). Breezy and gusty winds will develop from central into north-central WY, as well as over the eastern portions of the Absarokas. - A cool front will drape across northern WY on Sunday, decreasing temperatures somewhat, but not bringing any chances for precipitation. - Moisture increases from the southwest late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance (30 to 50%) of precipitation to western and southwest WY Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IR continues to show some scattered mid level clouds across eastern counties in wake of the previous storm system, diminishing and push further east into the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, around seasonable to just below average for this time of year in mid October. Winds have increased for the remainder of the afternoon as leeside cyclogenesis has occurred off the northern Colorado Rockies, tightening the gradient through Sweetwater to Fremont and Johnson Counties (strongest up to 30 to 35 mph), and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. There winds will diminish towards sunset with radiational cooling under mainly clear skies into the overnight hours. This will allow temperatures to drop below freezing east of the Divide, many a hard freeze around of below 28 degrees. The upgraded Freeze Warning goes into affect after midnight through 9AM Friday morning before temperatures rise there after. Warming and dry trend starts Friday afternoon and over the weekend into early next week as ridging builds in from the south and southwest with increased convergence aloft. The next system for Tuesday through Thursday next week still looking to push through but details a bit uncertain at this time, with newest model trends have back up on the QPF (both valley rain and mountain snow). Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days as this system pushes near. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough toovercome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure has developed across the area and the result is mostly light wind, clear skies, and VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10-15%) of patchy fog or low clouds at KBPI and KPNA early Friday morning. Wind will remain well below 10 knots at most terminals. Wind will increase Friday morning at KCPR with wind around 15 knots and gusts around 25 knots through Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011- 016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe  055 FXUS64 KBRO 160352 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1052 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, and markedly cooler changes along with multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) Friday into the weekend. - Northerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph Friday into Saturday. - Medium (30-50%) rain shower chances on Friday along the cold front. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Major changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place in the next 12-24 hours across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Multiple weather hazards including a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory are in effect ahead of a strong cold front, which is now pushing through central Texas, that will sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The cold front will arrive over the Rio Grande Valley sometime during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will have enough time to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the valley before the cold front pushes through. Immediately behind the cold front is a strong, sprawling 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system. The combination of the cold front and Canadian High will result in tight isobars or an enhanced pressure gradient over the region. Ultimately, this will result in strong, stiff north winds developing Friday afternoon. Many computer models continue to show north winds 15-30 mph with peak gusts as high as 45-55+ mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday and Saturday for much of Deep South Texas to take into account the strong winds. These strong wind will result in multiple coastal and marine hazards Friday through Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). Drier air will build into the region behind the fropa on Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop through the day on Friday/Friday night with little to no recovery. Due to the combination of lower relative humidity values and strong winds, we've decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Friday/Friday night. Another Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday. Any rain showers are expected to be light to moderate. Much cooler temperatures will develop Friday night through Saturday night with lows in the 50s most places. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rebound back to warmer than normal levels (high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s) Tuesday through Friday of next week as a 591 hpa heat dome builds over the region. There is a chance for additional showers Monday night into Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through 00z Thursday....Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Late morning/early afternoon on Friday, between 16z-19z/Fri, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Upon the arrival of this cold front, winds will shift out of the north and steadily strengthen through the afternoon into the evening hours. Furthermore, clouds will increase and lower in elevation as the day wears on. While mainly VFR conditions can be expected, there could be some clouds dropping into MVFR territory. Light to moderate (stratiform) rain showers are also possible along the cold front on Friday. Have introduced Prob30 groups between 18z-22z/Fri for all of the TAF sites to acknowledge the potential for showers developing along the cold front. Southeast winds 10-15 kts with isolated gusts up to 20 kts or so will diminish this evening and trend towards light and variable to calm. During the mid to late morning hours on Friday, in response and ahead of the aforementioned cold front, winds will shift out of the north with speeds between 10-20 kts. Winds will steadily undergo strengthening as the day wears on. During the afternoon into the evening hours stiff northerly winds will increase 20-25 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts. These winds will challenge east-west oriented runways on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds to the region Friday into Saturday. These winds will result in multiple coastal/marine hazards Friday into Sunday (at least). A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 10AM Friday to 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory are in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from 1PM Friday to 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Friday morning to Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 88 61 73 / 0 40 20 0 HARLINGEN 71 89 58 75 / 0 30 0 0 MCALLEN 74 90 60 76 / 0 40 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 87 58 75 / 0 50 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 67 73 / 0 50 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 62 73 / 0 40 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250- 251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351- 354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  125 FXUS63 KFSD 160355 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1055 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional light rain showers are expected overnight, mainly along and north of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Spencer, Iowa line. Any accumulations will be minimal. - Strong northwest winds continue into Friday morning, with widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph. Gusts to 50 mph expected overnight in south central South Dakota. Winds taper down Friday afternoon. - Moderate to high (over 50%) chances of widespread frost early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower and mid 30s. Freeze Watch in effect where confidence is highest in temperatures near and below 32 degrees. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind forecast and headlines for tonight/early Friday remains on track. Gusts have tapered a bit across south central SD this evening, should see them increase again toward 45 to 50 mph with the secondary push of CAA and strengthening LLJ. Will have to watch for isolated stronger (40-45 mph) gusts along the Buffalo Ridge overnight, especially if any of the stronger gusts are able to mix down with the wrap around showers. Shower activity should be limited to along and northeast of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Spencer, IA line where better 700mb vorticity is focused. Soundings here are more persistent and deeper with the saturated layer than further south toward the MO River, so did make some changes to pops. Showers should end by the morning commute with minimal accumulations. Other change to the forecast was to expand the Freeze Watch Saturday morning west toward the James River Valley, where confidence is highest in the potential for near and sub freezing temperatures. Although widespread frost conditions look likely across the area, there is still a little bit of uncertainty in south central SD where southerly lower level flow and WAA may temper some of the efficient radiational cooling, which could keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than forecast and limiting coverage of frost. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s)in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lower VFR and MVFR stratus continue overnight into mid to late Friday morning. Scattered showers are expected along and northeast of a KHON/KFSD/KSPW line, but confidence is too low in coverage for inclusion at KHON/KFSD. These could bring some lower MVFR stratus. Showers exit just after daybreak. Skies clear through the day Friday, with VFR conditions for the afternoon into the night. Main focus of the period is on the strong northwesterly winds through the overnight hours. Guidance is generally split on the timing of the stronger gusts overnight and into Friday morning, likely due to LLJ timing differences between models. Have kept winds/gusts fairly similar to previous, with a shift in the stronger winds for KSUX into the later morning Friday. Gusts 30 to 35 knots are expected, with strongest gusts into the early overnight and across south central SD. May also see some stronger gusts into the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge overnight, around or above 35 knots. Winds taper down through the day on Friday, becoming light and variable in the evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG