923 FXUS65 KTFX 160202 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 802 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures trend warmer through Saturday before cooling slightly Sunday into early next week. - Gusty to locally strong westerly winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and especially Saturday. - Pacific weather systems look to bring cooler temperatures and periods of rain and mostly mountain snow heading towards the second half of next week. && .UPDATE... Satellite imagery this evening shows mainly clear skies across the region with just some high clouds beginning to spill over the top of an upper level ridge into the Northern Rockies while surface high pressure slides eastward across eastern MT. South to southeast winds increase some overnight across the plains between the departing surface high and a developing lee-side trough in southern AB. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in some SW MT valleys, where surface winds remain light with minimal cloud- cover. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Ridging aloft migrates into the Northern Rockies and brings continued clearing skies tonight, along with some patchy AM fog over the wind protected valleys of southwest and north-central MT. H500 heights peak above 580 dm and warms high temperatures well into the 60s and 70s Friday and Saturday. The combination of increased westerly flow aloft and deep layer mixing will also bring gusty to locally strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains during this timeframe. The strongest winds will occur Saturday afternoon when H700 flow increases to the 50 to 70 kt range in advance of a fast approaching trough traveling eastward along the Canadian border. Forecast afternoon RH's were lowered to the upper teens to middle 20s for most lower elevation locations. A more relaxed zonal flow sets up on Sunday for slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds. A closed mid-level low then looks to move onto the Pacific NW coast on Monday before heading southeastward into California and towards the Great Basin area by mi- week. This will bring a southerly flow aloft and a few passing showers over the Northern Rockies while temperatures remain roughly near average. At least half of the ensemble suites highlight another trough approaching the Northern Rockies next Friday/Saturday. Similar to the aforementioned closed low, this new trough will be undergoing shearing and splitting, which decreases forecast position and timing confidence. Overall, there's a general expectation for cooling temperatures and increased instances of rain and mostly mountain snow heading into next weekend. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Gusty to strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday and Saturday... Breezy to windy conditions develop along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains Friday afternoon, with localized gusts over 50 mph along the immediate eastern slopes of the front. The windiest period will be Saturday afternoon when westerly flow aloft increases and diurnal mixing transfers some stronger gusts to the surface. Areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I15 look to see routine gusts over 50 mph and have a 50 to 80% chance (highest for the eastern slopes of the front) for instantaneous gusts over 70 mph. Plains locations to the east of I15 will generally see winds gusting in the 30 to 50 mph range, most frequently Saturday afternoon. Impacts will be greatest for the aforementioned areas west of I15 and will include difficult conditions for outdoor recreation over portions of Glacier National Park and neighboring areas of higher terrain. There will also be difficult travel for those operating high profile vehicles or pulling light weight trailers, especially along highway 89 from Chouteau to the Canadian border. The inherited high wind watch remains valid and was left as is for this forecast package. - RCG && .AVIATION... 16/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during this TAF Period. There is a low chance for fog at the KBZN and KHLN terminals between 16/06Z and 16/16Z. After 16/18Z it will be breezy at the KCTB and KGTF terminals. Across North-central Montana between 16/12Z and the end of this TAF Period there will be isolated instances of low-level wind shear. -IG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 33 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 25 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 28 61 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 24 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 15 55 19 55 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 24 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 26 67 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 26 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  086 FXUS62 KKEY 160205 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1005 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence is increasing for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week. - A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains very high regarding rain chances for next week. && .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION... Issued at 940 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally uneventful weather conditions are still in place across the Florida Keys this evening as the bulk of the afternoon shower activity has tapered off. Radar derived rainfall amounts suggest the Middle Keys have only seen a few hundredths of an inch of rain over the past 6 hours, while the rest of the island chain has only see shower activity brush by. The heaviest showers just offshore of the Middle Keys may have produced up to nearly 2 inches, but the rest of the forecast area has only seen light to modestly moderate showers. Temperatures along the Keys are in the mid 80s, but there won’t be much of an opportunity for some radiational cooling due to the moderate breezes (generally 10 to 15 mph) and some cloud cover advecting in from the east and the south. If winds were just a little bit lighter, we would be more optimistic regarding any cooling. The lack of activity across the area may be attributed to the dominating deep area of high pressure off of the SE U.S. coastline. CIMSS vorticity analysis shows general subsidence over most of the southeast, including the Keys area. An upper level cell was noted around 200mb, but it is not reflected in the mid to lower levels. Shower activity in the distant Florida Straits has drifted into our waters, but the activity has fizzled out quick. The 00Z KKEY sounding did show a shallow layer of dry air near 850 mb, but the deeper dry air was above 500 mb. In fact, the sounding summary shows a calculated PWAT of 2.16”, which is just above the 90th percentile of 2.06”, so there is plenty of moisture available to support showers. Unidirectional wind flow up to 850 mb may help to prevent outflow boundaries from colliding, so while there isn’t a significant source of lift available to trigger activity, we can’t really rule out spotty showers during the overnight hours. No changes or updates are proposed with this evening update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upcoming forecast will be dominated by the evolution of the next mid latitude trough currently amplifying across the heart of North America. Over the next couple of days the trough will amplify as it swings into eastern North America and link up with an upper level low over the Gulf of America. This will shove the deep layered ridge eastward into the Atlantic. Consequently, surface winds will trend downwards, becoming light through this period, possibly becoming variable Friday night. The already high deep layered moisture will remain elevated and may climb slightly. This along with continued instability and lack of inhibition will keep at least mid chance for precipitation despite the decelerating flow. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. The mid latitude trough will swing out into the Atlantic late this week, followed by deep layered ridging pushing eastward into the eastern United States. This will thrust a strong cold front southward across the Gulf of America, Florida, and the Atlantic Coast. Breezes are expected to freshen considerably beginning late Saturday, however guidance has been hinting at the front slowing to a crawl, possibly stalling withinour forecast area. The combination of the frontal baroclinic zone, copious associated deep layered moisture, and fresh breezes will have a very high likelihood of considerable shower coverage with a chance for thunderstorms with the best chances occurring from late Saturday into early next week. Unfortunately, improving weather and any post frontal cooling, drying and relaxing breezes will be completely dependent on when the front is finally flushed out of our area. The latest guidance drives the front southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the Tuesday time frame. However, consistency has been poor. Stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 940 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure aligned across the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic will retreat eastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of days as a frontal system presses east and southeastward into the eastern United States. As a result, gentle to moderate breezes will relax, possibly becoming light and variable Friday night. The cold front is expected to drive southward into our Gulf waters Saturday night, resulting in northeasterly breezes freshening considerably, along with squally conditions. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for part or all of Keys waters by late weekend. These fresh northeasterly breezes are then expected to persist through the duration of the marine forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the 00Z TAF period with FEW to occasionally SCT skies around FL025. High level clouds will brush across EYW, but these will be too high to impact flight categories. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain lower, around 30 percent, through most of the period, but these chances will increase near the very end of the period. Opting to keep the current TAFs dry due to low confidence regarding timing and potential impacts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 79 87 / 30 30 60 60 Marathon 82 88 80 86 / 30 30 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  017 FXUS63 KGRB 160230 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 930 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain continues tonight, becoming scattered into Friday morning. Most locations should see an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Friday night as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for areas inland of Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain chances through Friday... Radar and surface obs show widespread stratiform rain ongoing late this evening as cold front infringes on northwest Wisconsin and phased upper trough approaches the Great Lakes. Expect rain to become more scattered in coverage overnight into Friday morning with the loss of moisture advection and upper jet support, though most locations should still pick up an addition 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. Probabilities for receiving 0.5" of rain through tonight sit at around 30 to 60%, highest over far northeast Wisconsin where modest mid-level FGEN resides in proximity to the surface low. Rain then tapers off from west to east late Friday morning, though wrap around moisture may keep showers or drizzle around over east-central Wisconsin through the afternoon. Winds... Gradient winds ramp up Friday morning as a surge of CAA accompanies northwesterly wind shift and building high pressure over the Plains. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 40 to 45 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, resulting in a high confidence (60 to 90%) setup for widespread surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Only caveat will be Door County, where locally higher gusts will be bumping up against advisory criteria. HREF currently shows a 20 to 40% chance for gusts exceeding 44 mph over northern Door, with sustained winds also coming within a mph or two of criteria. Current thinking would be to hold off on an advisory for the time being due to low confidence, though CAM trends will have to be monitored on subsequent shifts. Temperatures... Intrusion of arctic high paired with stout northwesterly flow will result in a brief spell of well below normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. Highs will struggle to meet 50 degrees for many locations, with lows then plummeting into the mid 20s to low 30s. Setup still looking favorable (50 to 70%) for a hard freeze Friday night, so have retained the Freeze Watch. A rapid pattern shift to more seasonable temperatures then occurs over the weekend as return flow sets up and upper flow de- amplifies. As such, highs are progged to read mainly in the mid to upper 60s through at least mid-week, with several shots at seeing 70 degrees. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern then looks to set up toward the end of next week as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect IFR cigs to persist through at least 06Z, though brief improvements to MVFR will be possible. Otherwise, main impacts to aviation will revolve around ongoing periods of light to moderate rain that are forecast to continue through Friday morning. Have thus gone prevailing SHRA with reduced vsbys at all TAF sites. Rain coverage then becomes more SCT late tonight into Friday morning, which should signal an improvement to more widespread MVFR cigs. Potential for cigs lifting to VFR then exists after 18Z. Northwesterly winds ramp up late Friday morning as rain comes to an end from west to east. Surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph are forecast for all terminals, peaking early Friday afternoon. A brief period of LLWS will be possible over RHI, AUW, and CWA early Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds ramp up following cold FROPA later this evening. HREF probabilistic guidance is currently showing a 65 to 95% signal for 10-meter wind gusts exceeding 39 mph, which should translate pretty well to gale force gusts over our marine zones. Waves will build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake during this time. Have opted to throw out a wind down Small Craft Advisory along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters on this shift, as waves remain elevated through around 08Z Saturday as winds shift to more westerly. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Goodin MARINE.........Goodin  638 FXUS63 KIND 160213 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1013 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of showers and few thunderstorms crossing southeastern central Indiana through the early overnight - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph late tonight into Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Triple point of baroclinic system will continue to steadily cross east-central Indiana through the late evening...while warm sector occupying central Indiana's far southern/southeastern zones will continue to promote showers and an isolated t-storm, although with a quickly fleeting non-zero severe threat...with better wind shear around the system occlusion to the northwest of Indianapolis, offset from lingering instability mainly under 1000 J/kg well to the south. Cold front pushing main line of convection east...will usher in winds veering to west-northwest through the overnight before increasing to at least 10-15 mph with gusts increasing to 20-30 mph by daybreak. Patchy, transient mist will clear out by 06Z on the increasing flow. Noticeably drier, and almost seasonable dewpoints to arrive by dawn, with temperatures in the upper 40s west and northwest of Marion County...and lows down to the mid-50s for southeastern zones. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon through Friday Night... Current surface analysis depicts a low pressure system approaching from the west while an associated warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are now beginning to push into central Indiana. Additional convective development can be expected as the disturbance pushes across the area later today into tonight. Surface observations suggest the warm front is near far southern portions of central Indiana where dewpoints are now in the lower 70s. The warm front will continue lifting northward towards the I-70 corridor. Low-level theta-e advection combined with diurnal heating is expected to promote MLCAPE values of 750 to as high as 1250 J/KG locally later this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile aloft, a mid-level jet streak from the parent trough continues to shift eastward promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Increasing deep-layer shear in addition to modest destabilization could result in isolated severe thunderstorms. Effective shear values exceeding 40 kt are expected which favors the potential for supercells or organized storm clusters. Enlarging low-level veering hodographs from the warm front lifting north could support isolated tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts also appear possible with organized storm clusters. One caveat limiting confidence for the overall severe weather threat is uncertainty on the degree of low-level buoyancy. Forecast soundings from the latest CAMs depict poor lapse rates and relatively long-skinny CAPE profiles. This suggest updraft strength may be limited. However, even weak to modest low-level buoyancy in the favorable kinematic environment could support isolated damaging wind gusts or tornadoes so mesoscale trends will be monitored closely. Modest instability will greatly limit the threat for severe hail though sub-severe hail still appears possible. Expect a cold front to move through late tonight advecting cooler- drier air into the area. Look for precipitation chances to diminish from west to east during the late overnight. Increasingly breezy conditions are likely due to a tightening pressure gradient behind the departing front and steepening low-level lapse rates. Wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph should be common into Friday with sporadic gusts as high as 40 mph. Steepening lapse rates and marginal low- level moisture ahead of a backdoor cold front moving through late Friday will promote scattered convective showers. The parent mid- upper level trough overhead by this point should provide additional forcing for convection. Scattered lingering showers are possible early Friday night, mainly across northwest portions of central Indiana, before the aforementioned system shifts further east. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Friday night due to the additional shot of cooler air. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in sheltered locations into Saturday morning, but breezy conditions should mostly limit the threat elsewhere. Saturday through the middle of next week... A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 548 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. - SCT to ISO Showers and storms possible this evening. - Wind shifts to NW through the period. - Wind gusts 15-20kt tonight, over 30kt after 15Z Friday. Discussion: MVFR with isolated IFR cigs were found across the TAF sites. An area of showers with warming tops were found near IND and OKK, moving quickly NE. A cold front was still found to the west amid a moderate pressure gradient. Very warm and moist air still remained in place across central Indiana with dew points in the middle and upper 60s. Warm air continued to be advected north across our area on southerly winds ahead of the cold front. HRRR suggests sct/iso shra or tsra possible this evening ahead of the cold front. Confidence/timing for any of this is low and have used a VCSH mention for now through the expected fropa later tonight. Cold air advection and trapped lower level moisture will keep MVFR cigs across Central Indiana tonight and again on Friday. However a moderate pressure gradient in place will allow for possible 30 knt northwest wind gusts through the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...White/Melo  204 FXUS65 KRIW 160232 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 832 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will continue overnight under cool northerly flow. Temperatures will drop to the low 30s and into the 20s late in the night into Friday morning across western and central Wyoming. Freeze warnings have been issued for those areas that have not already had a hard freeze (less than 28 F) this season. - High pressure develops over the Intermountain West, bringing dry and mild conditions Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s (and some 70s over parts of north-central WY). Breezy and gusty winds will develop from central into north-central WY, as well as over the eastern portions of the Absarokas. - A cool front will drape across northern WY on Sunday, decreasing temperatures somewhat, but not bringing any chances for precipitation. - Moisture increases from the southwest late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance (30 to 50%) of precipitation to western and southwest WY Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IR continues to show some scattered mid level clouds across eastern counties in wake of the previous storm system, diminishing and push further east into the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, around seasonable to just below average for this time of year in mid October. Winds have increased for the remainder of the afternoon as leeside cyclogenesis has occurred off the northern Colorado Rockies, tightening the gradient through Sweetwater to Fremont and Johnson Counties (strongest up to 30 to 35 mph), and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. There winds will diminish towards sunset with radiational cooling under mainly clear skies into the overnight hours. This will allow temperatures to drop below freezing east of the Divide, many a hard freeze around of below 28 degrees. The upgraded Freeze Warning goes into affect after midnight through 9AM Friday morning before temperatures rise there after. Warming and dry trend starts Friday afternoon and over the weekend into early next week as ridging builds in from the south and southwest with increased convergence aloft. The next system for Tuesday through Thursday next week still looking to push through but details a bit uncertain at this time, with newest model trends have back up on the QPF (both valley rain and mountain snow). Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days as this system pushes near. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough toovercome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 402 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is high confidence in dry conditions through at least 00Z Friday. Breezy north winds at KWRL are expected through 01Z, at the latest, before becoming 12kts or less. Winds at all other terminals are forecast to be light (12kts or less) the entire TAF period. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of fog or low cloud development beginning around 12Z Friday at KJAC, KRIW, KRKS, KPNA, and KBPI. There is no mention in TAF at this time given the very low confidence. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011- 016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt  516 FXUS64 KHUN 160244 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Cooler conditions return Friday into the weekend after a cold front brings low chances (10-15%) of showers to portions of the area Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main talking point in the near term is a cold front approaching the Tennessee Valley tonight from the northwest. An upper level trough stemming from the Great Lakes region will bring the subsequent cold front to the area by Friday morning into the afternoon. Accompanying this, a 50 kt LLJ will allow gusty winds up to 20-30 mph along and behind the front Friday into Saturday. While the frontal passage will be mostly dry, CAMs have hinted at a very low chance (15% or less) of some shower development along and east of I-65. However, we will likely see more virga than showers as a dry atmospheric profile continues to exist toward the surface. If showers do form, no thunderstorms are anticipated as lapse rates and instability remain very weak. Be sure to secure any loose outdoor items if you have not already done so! Otherwise, temperatures should remain capped in the 70s through most of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s after the front shifts southeast of the area and sfc high pressure funnels in. The aforementioned wind gusts and overall dry air mass will prevent any risk of fog formation. Saturday will bring continued gusty conditions along with much cooler temperatures than we've been experiencing- keeping highs in the 60s. Saturday night, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to lower 40s and winds should lighten back into the 5-10 mph range. Frost is not currently anticipated, but will be monitored in future updates. Be sure to dress in layers this weekend if you have outdoor plans! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with a low chance of MVFR conditions Friday afternoon if showers form near either site. Confidence is not high enough to include this is the TAF package. Additionally, wind gusts will pick up early Friday with gusts up to 15-25 kts from the NW. Beyond the TAF period, wind shear looks likely. However, this will be added in a future update. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...HC  768 FXUS63 KBIS 160249 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 949 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northwest winds will continue to diminish overnight from northwest to southeast. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected late tonight into early Friday morning, especially over western locations. - Notably milder temperatures along with dry weather to end the week and start next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Winds have been steadily diminishing over the past few hours, therefore opted to cancel the Wind Advisory early for far northwestern North Dakota. Winds elsewhere are mostly below Advisory criteria though closer overall, so will let things play out across the rest of the CWA for now. Otherwise, sky cover is steadily eroding in western Montana and far southeastern Saskatchewan. Just how quickly this sky cover erodes will greatly impact exactly where freezing conditions occur tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, isolated light rain showers persist across central North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the state. While the general trend this evening through the overnight hours should be a gradual decrease in winds from northwest to southeast, increasing pressure rises could lead to another relatively brief surge this evening. Therefore, no changes to the Wind Advisory are expected over the next few hours. Otherwise, isolated to scattered light rain showers continue mainly for the eastern two thirds of the state. These will dissipate as skies clear from northwest to southeast tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, strong S/WV trough moving southeast across the Northern Plains today, with an associated sfc cold front now to our south. Behind the frontal passage earlier, strong northwest winds have developed along with the extensive low level stratus filtering into the state. Peak gusts have been right around 50 mph, and should continue to be gusty for several more hours till diminishing this evening/early Friday morning. Thus wind headlines remain on track. With the mid level wave, isolated/scattered light rain showers moving south/southeast, so will maintain this in the forecast. Best moisture accumulation will be over my east, where a few hundreths will be possible. S/WV troughing to our east tonight with a high amplitude ridge to our west. Strong surface high pressure builds into the western Dakotas later tonight, thus the decrease in winds forecast. In addition, CAA coupled with decreasing clouds and the decrease in winds will see temperatures dropping into the 20s west and north central, and to near freezing south central. Should remain above freezing southeast where winds and clouds linger the longest. Thus, we opted to issue a Freeze Warning for western and much of central North Dakota late tonight through early Friday. South/southwest return flow for Friday, yet the cold start will only see highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s despite a mostly clear sky as well. Fire weather may become an issue southwest Friday and Saturday, but right now looks sub-marginal. Upper level ridge to our west deamplifies into the weekend as it moves east, morphing into a quasi-zonal flow regime across the Northern Plains into next week. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions to the region, along with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty northwesterly winds continue this evening, while MVFR ceilings persist across most of the state. Light isolated to scattered rain showers are present across most of the eastern two thirds of the state as well, and will continue this evening before dissipating later tonight. Skies will clear while winds gradually diminish from northwest to southeast through the night tonight and into Friday morning. Once skies clear, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the remainder of the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Friday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-031>033- 035-040>044-055>062. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ004-005-012-013-018>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-056>062. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ023-025-036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Telken  738 FXUS66 KLOX 160247 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 747 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...15/1247 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down is expected Sunday with a chance of widespread rain by Tuesday or Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...15/154 PM. Santa Ana winds arrived on schedule and with more aggressive speeds than expected. Some areas in the San Gabriel Mountains have already reported 70+ mph wind gusts today and models are still indicating additional upper level support Friday morning as well as offshore gradients from the east peaking between 8 and 9mb. So just making some minor tweaks for Friday based on today's conditions. Temperatures have been warmed a few degrees, especially at the coast where temps will be the warmest, even more so than the valleys. And based on today's wind speeds there's at least a 30-40% chance of wind gusts in the LA County mountains reaching 90mph and similar chances for valleys and Ventura county coastal areas to see wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Since even 1mb of offset in the gradients can result in 5 or more degrees offset in the temperatures, confidence in the exact highs is on the lower side but should be in the ball park. Also, overnight lows will, in general, be quite warm tonight across the coast and valleys. Some areas that stay windy all night may not drop below 75 and wouldn't be surprised if some areas stay above 80 all night. On Saturday, upper level support and surface gradients weaken but still expecting a windy day, albeit probably 15-30 mph weaker than Friday. And with the offshore flow and cold advection weakening as well temperatures at the coast should cool at least a few degrees while valleys and other interior areas either remain the same or warm slightly. For Sunday, all areas except the mountains and deserts will cool at least 3-6 degrees. Interior areas will warm as cold advection continues to weaken. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...15/230 PM. More cooling is in store on Monday as an upper low moves down the coast. Hgts will fall from 580 dam Sunday afternoon to 576 dam Monday afternoon. Actual onshore flow will develop and will increase through the day. Some morning marine layer clouds may even develop over the Central Coast. Max temps will fall 4 to 8 degrees. This will bring max temps down to near normals. There is increasing confidence in rain chances next week, though timing is still quite uncertain as are the amounts. Virtually all the solutions from the ENS and GEFS ensembles indicate at least some light rain, most likely starting Wednesday, but could start as early as Tuesday afternoon or as late as Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are even more scattered but mostly around a half inch area-wide. It's a tricky pattern with the upper low dropping south along the California coast and a lot of uncertainnesshow far offshore and where it will turn inland. Might take another few days to have more confidence in amounts and timing. There are more than a few solutions that bring an inch or more so this needs to be followed closely, especially with the possibility of brush fires during the current strong Santa Ana winds. && .AVIATION...16/0247Z. At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion. For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in direction/strength of northeast- east winds, gusts may be off by 030 degrees and 10-15 knots respectively. KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected through the period. Moderate to low confidence in winds, and there is the potential for an extended period of gusty easterly winds from about 18 to 23Z, with gusts up to 25 kt. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the TAF period. Moderate confidence in winds as timing may be off by 2-3 hours and strength could be +/- 10 knots. && .MARINE...15/1215 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across PZZ670/673. For PZZ676, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds late tonight and Friday. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters with seas hovering around SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with seas hovering near SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica with winds/seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 60-70% chance of GALE force winds from Ventura to Santa Monica with a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere (especially across the San Pedro Channel). For Friday night and Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...15/1224 PM. Moderate to strong offshore flow will peak around Friday, then slowly weaken through the weekend. During the peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 to 70 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 70 to 90 mph in the mountains. On Friday, winds will be unusually widespread affecting most of our area including areas that typically do not see Santa Ana winds. This includes much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 90 and 100 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 8 to 20 percent range, with poor overnight recoveries. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as the mountains and foothills of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. Residents in high fire risk areas should be prepared in case a fire starts. Review your evacuation plans...what would you bring, where would you go. Stay extra aware of your surroundings. Make sure your vehicle is fueled up. For everyone, avoid using anything that could spark a fire. Be prepared for power outages that are likely over a good portion of our areas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WindAdvisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354>358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 342-345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Phillips/RAT MARINE...RAT FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW/Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox