369 FXHW60 PHFO 160101 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 301 PM HST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift from west to east over the next few days. This passing system will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves during this time period. Increasing shower trends will favor the windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting Friday night and lingering into Tuesday morning. The strongest of these three waves will pass through the islands from late Sunday through late Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Radar showed scattered windward and mauka showers over each island this afternoon, with additional Kona showers developing. Northeast trade winds were a little stronger than yesterday, averaging 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph fairly common. A large surface high continues to strengthen to our north. Aloft, a weak upper level low to our east will become a trough that stretches from southern CA all the way out to us. The trough will be weak, and apart from a slight increase in instability, we won't see much from it. Several impulses of increased moisture will move west toward and over the state, especially the eastern end, over the coming week. The first will move through Friday afternoon and evening, and reach all islands. We have continued the trend of the previous shift and further increased the chance of rain through this window of time. The second should move over the area late Sunday through late Monday, boosting showers mainly across the eastern end of the state. Again, PoPs have been further increased. Finally, another area may reach us next Thursday, but at this time range confidence is low. Models currently indicate the focus of this one would be on the eastern end. Trade winds will remain moderate to breezy through the coming week, with the a slight increase possible Tuesday evening. A slight weakening may develop next Thursday, but as mentioned in the previous paragraph, at seven days out, confidence in that level of detail is low. Finally, both the latest GFS and ECMWF indicate that the upper level trough extending from southern CA over to us may join with energy moving in from the northwest and strengthen toward the middle of next week. It is unclear at this time whether it will develop into a closed low or a stronger trough. Either way, it may draw tropical moisture northward toward the state and present a heavy rain threat. Details should become clearer in a few days. && .AVIATION... Gusty trade winds have been observed at several terminals today (PHNL, PHOG, PHMK, PHJR). Gusts should ease somewhat this evening with the typical diurnal decrease, then increase again Friday. Isolated MVFR conditions are possible in passing showers overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far north of the islands will build as it shifts northeast of Hawaii through Saturday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui through Saturday and may need to be expanded in area as the high builds to the north. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week. The current small bump in the northwest swell will fade tonight before a moderate north-northwest swell arrives Friday. Surf along north and west-facing shores should top out near or slightly above seasonal average during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week. A new long-periond south swell will gradually build this evening and may push surf along south-facing shores back above seasonal average into Friday. This swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually increase tonight into Friday as trade winds strengthen over the region. Expect some wrap from the moderate north-northwest swell Friday afternoon into Saturday. This swell along with developing rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 259 PM HST Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure north of the islands will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days. Minimum relative humidity levels will for most areas remain out of critical fire threshold ranges. The stronger trade winds will mainly impact higher elevation areas with even higher minimum humidity levels. Subsidence temperature inversion heights today near Maui and the Big Island should range from 9,000 to 11,000 foot through Friday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...PECHACEK MARINE...Farris  169 FXUS63 KFSD 160143 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 843 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional light rain showers are expected overnight, mainly along and north of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Spencer, Iowa line. - Strong northwest winds continue into Friday morning, with widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph. Gusts to 50 mph expected overnight in south central South Dakota. Winds taper down Friday afternoon. - Moderate to high (over 50%) chances of widespread frost early Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower and mid 30s. Freeze Watch in effect where confidence is highest in temperatures near and below 32 degrees. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind forecast and headlines for tonight/early Friday remains on track. Gusts have tapered a bit across south central SD this evening, should see them increase again toward 45 to 50 mph with the secondary push of CAA and strengthening LLJ. Will have to watch for isolated stronger (40-45 mph) gusts along the Buffalo Ridge overnight, especially if any of the stronger gusts are able to mix down with the wrap around showers. Shower activity should be limited to along and northeast of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Spencer, IA line where better 700mb vorticity is focused. Soundings here are more persistent and deeper with the saturated layer than further south toward the MO River, so did make some changes to pops. Showers should end by the morning commute with minimal accumulations. Other change to the forecast was to expand the Freeze Watch Saturday morning west toward the James River Valley, where confidence is highest in the potential for near and sub freezing temperatures. Although widespread frost conditions look likely across the area, there is still a little bit of uncertainty in south central SD where southerly lower level flow and WAA may temper some of the efficient radiational cooling, which could keep temperatures a degree or two warmer than forecast and limiting coverage of frost. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in the upper 40s to low 50s.Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain continues move east, stretching from KOLU to KSUX to KSPW into central MN at the time of this discussion. Patchy MVFR ceilings near/east of that line push east as well. However, further north and west, additional lower VFR stratus is expected to lower into MVFR conditions overnight. Wrap-around showers will impact portions of the area late this evening and overnight, but should stay north of a KHON to KFSD to KSLB line. Ceilings improve through the afternoon hours Friday, with VFR conditions for the end of the period and onward. Winds remain strong out of the northwest overnight, with gusts 25 to 35 knots common. Gusts around 40 knots continue across south central SD. Expect winds and gusts to taper down slowly during the morning hours, with gusts around 20 knots into the afternoon and early evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  486 FXUS64 KMOB 160151 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 851 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 817 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires. - Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory, but observational trends and high res model guidance will be monitored closely. Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat. The forecast was updated early this evening to add fog and will be awaiting the new late evening model guidance to refine the overall wind threat Friday night into Saturday. /JLH && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front,with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The primary focus for this forecast period will be the potential for fog, some potentially dense, late tonight into early Friday morning. It appears that with high pressure in place and light southerly flow off of the Gulf, that there will be enough low level moisture in place to support fog development. This will be most probably along the coast with decreasing potential further inland where the airmass remains drier. IFR visibilities will be possible between 09-13z, especially at KMOB. Otherwise light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  337 FXUS63 KMKX 160120 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday especially along the lakeshore, with higher gale force conditions likely over Lake Michigan. - A waterspout or two will be possible over Lake Michigan Friday into Friday night. - Colder end to the week with overnight temps trending to around or below freezing for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main round of rain just exited southeast WI. Some light showers and drizzle will be possible through the rest of the evening (and Friday), but the majority of the rain is done. After a lull in the winds through late evening, gusty northwest winds (gusts up to 25 mph) will develop. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tonight through Friday night: Widespread rain will continue into this evening, as surface low pressure clips the southeast forecast area ahead of a strong approaching trough. It still looks like the northwest half of the forecast area will wind up with the higher rainfall totals given the low track, with upstream radar adding confidence to this scenario. Rain chances will be lower overnight tonight into early Friday morning as the surface low pulls away, with scattered showers then expected by mid-Friday morning and into the afternoon as the strong trough swings through. Blustery north winds are expected by Friday afternoon behind the trough. Gusts to 30 knots are likely, with a few gusts to 35 knots possible towards Lake Michigan. High temperatures tomorrow will will be well below normal, only rising to about 50 by the afternoon. Decreasing clouds and winds Friday night will allow for temps to drop quite a bit, as the colder airmass behind the departing system continues to settle into the area. Overnight lows may drop below 30 across much of the southern Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas. At the very minimum, most (if not all) locations across the forecast area will likely see a round of frost. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Saturday through Thursday: High pressure is expected to largely be in place across the region this weekend into the middle of next week. A prolonged period of mainly dry weather is thus likely during this period. Temperatures should gradually warm over the span of these few days, as southerly low level winds develop while upper level ridging nudges into the area. Above normal temps are likely by mid-week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The LIFR ceilings with bases around 400 ft AGL are pretty widespread across southern WI this evening. The steadier rain just moved out of southeast WI. We can expect drizzle and light rain showers to be possible through the rest of the night and into Friday, but ceilings should be in the IFR category. We are in a lull with the winds right now, but winds will quickly increase out of the northwest around midnight. Blustery northwest winds will persist through the day Friday, with an uptick in the gusts during the late afternoon and early evening. Look for ceilings to improve to VFR Friday afternoon and clouds will diminish in coverage during the evening. Winds will diminish overnight. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Two areas of low pressure are progged to merge over the Great Lakes region into a single low pressure later today into tonight and deepen to around 29.4 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes through Friday. Expect a northerly wind shift to ramp up and increase to gales andnearing storm force at times Friday on the backside of the departing low pressure while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds to the west. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night. Widespread rain is expected this afternoon into tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible over the southern open waters. Lake effect showers & a few thunderstorms may linger into Friday along the back side of departing low pressure. A few waterspouts are possible in the Friday showers/thunderstorms, particularly over the southern half of Lake Michigan. As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in northern Manitoba through the weekend. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  421 FXUS62 KTAE 160148 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 948 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again Friday morning across much of the area. - A strong cold front Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 35 to 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The forecast is currently on track, updates don't appear necessary this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions across the area will remain constant tomorrow, with only a very minimal chance of rain along the coast of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will remain across the region through Friday ahead of the front moving in later this weekend. Tonight, minimal winds due to a very weak pressure gradient in tandem with prefrontal moisture will create ideal conditions for patchy fog to form tomorrow morning across the area. As the day progresses, the high pressure system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front sweeps through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. It'll be a mostly dry frontal passage with the highest chance for rain across the southeastern Florida Big Bend Friday night. However, you'll know the front is through when winds turn more northerly and increase substantially with widespread wind gusts of 30+ mph expected early Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions continue throughout Saturday and linger into Saturday night before the pressure gradient relaxes enough to allow winds to calm some. Even then, winds are forecast to remain elevated into early next week. As mentioned in the previous AFD, this type of wind could hamper hurricane recovery efforts across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and a Wind Advisory for these areas will be considered, even if it may not explicitly hit criteria. One good thing about this front is it will bring a true taste of autumn with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s over the weekend. Temperatures moderate some early next week, but still remain near to slightly below normal for this time of year. One thing we'll also monitor is the potential for a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic states next week. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid-Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through most of the overnight period, another round of patchy fog is expected to impact area terminals during the pre-dawn hours, lingering an hour or two after sunrise. This patchy fog could lead to pockets of MVFR to IFR vsbys. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Low probability (PROB30) at ECP to see some rain showers late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue Friday with light easterly breezes in the morning turning more westerly later in the day. That changes in a hurry as a powerful cold front sweeps across the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase substantially out of the northwest to north following the frontal passage. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch for all of our waters Friday night through at least Saturday night. Winds are forecast to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another dry day is in the forecast again Friday ahead of a cold front. MinRh will generally be between 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon. Transport winds will generally be out of the west ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring a low, 20 to 30 percent, chance of an isolated shower or two as the front sweeps through, especially along the immediate coast and the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Winds quickly become northerly following the front late Friday night into Saturday with gusts generally between 30 to 40 mph. MinRH is forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Patchy dense fog is possible from early to mid-morning again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Several sites, including a number of them along the Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee Rivers, remain in Action stage this afternoon but are slowly falling. An isolated shower or two is possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, but they shouldn't cause any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast period is looking dry. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 89 61 72 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 68 85 60 72 / 0 10 10 0 Dothan 64 86 55 70 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 63 87 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 88 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 68 89 66 75 / 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 69 84 64 72 / 0 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ735. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese