703 FXUS63 KDVN 160005 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 705 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 34 are now 40-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The storms system in the Midwest, at least through Noon, has been noted by both areas of significant rainfall, and by locations where rains have been very light and showery. Our CWA is on the lighter end of that scale, largely due to dry mid level air, which is quickly filling in early this afternoon. Low pressure has been elongated from Oklahoma through northeast Iowa, resulting in a a challenging placement of the rain showers, despite rather moist low levels and warm advection over a broad area. Those moist low levels, have created extensive low cloud cover, as well a poor visibilities in our region, and that has helped keep the warm sector from working northward, and with that, the strong thunderstorm chances today, are going to be south of our CWA, into central MO, and southern IL. I have added fog to our forecast grids in the hours of the low passing by this afternoon. This could result in a SPS being issued for low visibility. Light to moderate showers will continue to fill in and stream northeast over the CWA this afternoon and early evening, as low pressure intensifies from the "double barreled" low in it's current state, to one surface low over northern Illinois, while the strong high pressure heads southeast creating a very tight pressure gradient in cold advection over our area from this evening through Friday afternoon. The strongest winds aloft, at the top of the CWA mixed layer are forecast from 06z through 15Z Friday, with some models showing 40 kts about 3kft aloft. At a typical 80% surface verification of the top of the mixed layer, we should expect most winds gusts tonight in the 30 to 40 mph range, with a few isolated gusts up to 45 mph possible at it's peak. I think the best way forward is to keep the forecast below advisory levels, while also supporting messaging on the northwest wind as a hazard tonight. Following a blustery, windy Friday, largely under clouds and spotty showers, the next question is whether we freeze or frost Friday night. Clouds are expected to thin out during the evening, and if winds can decrease under 5 mph, we could see some near 32 degree temperatures in the north half, however, that possibility remains around 50-60%, outside of the Highway 20 corridor, with most spots seeing values more typical for a Frost Advisory. At this stage of the game, offices are collaborating Freeze Watches which may be converted to freeze warnings or frost advisories. Our office will be going with a Freeze Watch for areas northwest of Keokuk County through Carroll County. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The cool Canadian high pressure will be moving to the south and east of the region starting Sunday. This large synoptic movement will bring in a prolonged period of south to southwest winds to the region, and with that, temperatures rising back above normal through most of the week ahead. This rather high confidence warmer than normal has been supported by CPC outlooks for several days, and might appear to some as another wave of heat, but in this case, we're looking at pleasant weather, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. Any cloud cover or precipitation chances remain silent in the week ahead, as an upper ridge builds aloft mid week. Once that pattern breaks down, which may not be until the weekend or beyond, dry weather should be the dominant feature of the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low pressure will push east into the Great Lakes region overnight, leading to increasing northwest winds across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. IFR ceilings, accompanied by patchy drizzle/light rain, early on in this TAF period will improve to MVFR for the rest of the overnight into Friday AM as drier air advects into the region. Otherwise, expect NW to NNW winds gusting 25-35 kts tonight through Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech  432 FXUS61 KCLE 160000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made to the forecast with this package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There will be a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front lifts north across the region tonight. A few storms could produce strong gusts upwards of 50 MPH. 2) A cold front will sweep through the region early Friday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes bringing the chance for rain and gusty winds. 3) Coldest air of the season is expected Friday night and Saturday night with frost/freeze conditions expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will move northeast through the Great Lakes region this evening. A warm front will lift northeast across the local forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to enter the area from the west with the warm front this evening. There will be minimal instability (~500 J/kg) but plenty of bulk shear given a strong low level jet of 40-50 knots with the warm front. The potential for an isolated strong storm capable of producing a localized 50 MPH or greater wind gust, particularly across Northwest and North Central Ohio. SPC has maintained this area in their SWODY1 outlook. The potential for any strong to severe storm will diminish through the overnight hours as instability wanes. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will glide east through the morning hours on Friday as the aforementioned low continues to lift northeast across the Lower Great Lakes. Latest hi-res guidance show a line of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping east of I-71 after sunrise on Friday along and ahead of the cold front. The line of showers and scattered storms will exit to the east across noon on Friday but expect for lingering lake enhanced showers to linger through Friday night downwind of the lake as a surface trough drapes itself across the local area. Overall rainfall amounts with range between 0.25-0.50" with the highest amounts confined to Northwest Pennsylvania and the Cleveland metro given the longer duration lake enhanced rainfall with a Lake Huron connection. Locally higher rainfall possible in any thunderstorm. In addition to rainfall, winds and gusts will increase with the frontal passage in the CAA regime. Strong southwesterly winds will peak at 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH in the early morning hours on Friday. The strongest winds are expected across Northwest Ohio and along the lakeshore. Winds will turn northerly by Friday night but remain elevated before high pressure builds overhead on Saturday and winds decrease. KEY MESSAGE 3... A much cooler airmass will be in place behind the cold front as temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning fall into the mid 30s. The frost potential remains limited given strong wind speeds, lingering rain showers and persistent cloud cover. By Saturday night, lows fall into the low 30s across much of the forecast area with a mainly clear sky under high pressure. The probabilities for frost remain high outside of locations near the lakeshore given the relatively warm waters. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Showers will continue to progress east and northeastward into all terminals over the next 3 hours ahead of a warm front. The only terminal that remains VFR is KERI, but expect that site to fall to MVFR by 02Z. This will lead to frequent rain showers overnight and MVFR cigs and vis, with eventually some IFR around the pre-dawn hours. Periods of showers will continue Friday in the wake of a strong cold front that will cross the region in the morning. This will keep conditions MVFR, and briefly lower in heavier showers. KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD will try to dry out in the late afternoon and evening, but lake enhancement will keep showers going farther east. Light SE winds this evening will turn SW and increase to 15-20 knots over the next 6 hours. Low-level wind shear is possible as the winds first increase above the surface, especially at KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, and KCLE where a low-level jet noses overhead. By the pre-dawn hours, surface gusts should reduce low-level wind shear. Winds will quickly veer west late tonight and Friday morning in the wake of the cold front, with W winds of 15-25 knots gusting to 30 knots at times through Friday afternoon. Winds will eventually turn NW and slowly diminish Friday evening. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times through early Saturday. && .MARINE... East winds 10-15 knots will turn become southwesterly while increasing to 20-25 knots as a warm front lifts northeast across the lake this evening. A cold front will sweep east across the lake Friday morning leading to winds turning northeasterly by late Friday afternoon. Wave heights will build to 5-10 feet during this time frame. A secondary trough will remain draped across Lake Erie Friday night which will lead to winds to shift northerly around 25-30 knots with waves of 8-11 feet. Small Craft Advisories for the entire lake have been issued from tonight through Saturday morning. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday allowing for winds to decrease and wave heights to subside through the daytime hours. Winds 10-15 knots turn southwesterly and continue through Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143-149. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...13  448 FXUS62 KTBW 160000 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon into Saturday. - Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week. - A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move west northwest across southwest Florida this evening. These will move out into the eastern gulf waters and come to an end on land by midnight. Otherwise, for the remainder of tonight we'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies with some patchy low clouds and fog possible toward morning. Any low cloud and fog will dissipate by mid-morning Friday with partly sunny skies and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze moves inland. Highest chances look to be over the interior late in the afternoon and evening. Forecast looks ok at this time with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to move across southwest Florida and out into the eastern gulf waters for the next few hours and these could cause brief MVFR/local IFR conditions. Then late tonight into early Friday morning some areas of MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings could develop. By Friday afternoon we'll begin to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the area which could cause more MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. East winds at 4 to 7 knots overnight will shift to southeast at 5 to 10 knots by late morning and then westerly as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure remains in control this afternoon keeping conditions warm and mostly dry, though moisture has begun to creep up over SWFL. The increase in moisture combined with daytime heating will likely be enough to generate a some shower activity this afternoon with the possibility of some isolated thunderstorms. Convection will likely remain south of Tampa Bay as dry air remains to the north. A pattern change is coming as a cold front makes its way towards the Southeast from the Mississippi River Valley. The high pressure currently running the show, will push east over the Atlantic tomorrow, shifting the flow more east, southeast. This will also allow moisture to increase for most of the area, leading to scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will finally arrive over the area Saturday bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms for the area. High pressure quickly builds back in as the front exits to the south. The tight pressure gradient will lead to strong north to northeasterly winds over the area. The elevated winds will stick around through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool down following the frontal passage. With daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected well into next week. Humidity will also be lower as dry air filters in. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light easterly flow continues today as high pressure remains over the area. Conditions begin to change tomorrow as a cold front approaches the waters Friday afternoon, moving through Saturday. Storm chances increases Friday and Saturday with the frontal passage. However, the bigger marine concern will be following the front as high pressure builds back in. The pressure gradient will tighten, causing north to northeast winds to increase to advisory levels by Saturday, lasting into next week. There is also a potential for gale force winds, 34kts or above, especially Sunday and Monday. Seas will have the potential to reach over 10ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal over the next several days as moisture increases over the area as a cold front approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 88 75 81 / 10 30 40 50 FMY 76 90 76 84 / 30 50 40 70 GIF 74 91 74 83 / 10 60 40 50 SRQ 74 88 75 82 / 20 30 50 60 BKV 72 91 72 79 / 0 30 30 30 SPG 76 87 76 81 / 10 30 50 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt  670 FXUS64 KLCH 160004 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 704 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas on Friday. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region. - Fire weather watch on Saturday for the entire CWA. - High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions possible late Friday. - Low Water possible for southeast Texas Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The rest of today will be fairly calm with light south to southeast winds. This will be the last muggy day, as a cold front will sweep across the region late tonight and into the early morning on Friday. With the front will come much cooler weather, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Friday and Saturday will be the most impactful days of the forecast with wind and fire weather hazards across the region. Starting on Friday, with the passage of the cold front early in the morning, wind speeds will be elevated across the region with winds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. These winds will quickly reach the coast, where they will increase with offshore winds approaching Gale strength by Friday night. A Red Flag Warning is in place for the northern counties and parishes in the CWA. The biggest limiting factor on Friday will be a mismatch between the lowest RH and highest wind gusts as the driest air moves in, with the driest air making its way into our area after sunset. One thing that we will need to watch is the possibility for dry air at 850 mb to be mixed down with the gusty winds. This would lead to RH values plummeting early and could extend the elevated fire risk farther south than expected on Friday. The SPC has highlighted most of north and central Louisiana in an elevated fire risk for Friday and most of the state on Saturday. Taking a closer look on Saturday, the dry air will be firmly in place, and after sunrise north winds will be sustained between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Another Fire Weather Watch is in place area-wide for Saturday, and a Red Flag Warning looks likely for most of the area. With the ongoing drought, KBDI values are above 700. Fuels are also dry, with 10-hour fuels showing RH values below 20%. As stated in the previous AFD, it is imperative not to burn anything for the next several days. Pay attention to any local burn bans and report fires to local authorities. As we go into next week, high pressure on the Eastern Seaboard will give us a primarily easterly wind, while a ridge building aloft will keep our dry streak going. Temperatures will slowly rise next week, getting back into the low 90s or high 80s by midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail over the early evening hours. Starting around 09z, winds will remain low but will shift to the north in response to a nearing crashing cold front. Winds will increase rapidly after 12z as the front crashes through. A prolonged period of sustained winds 18 to 21 knots with gusts up to 30 knots will then occur through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front passage early Friday morning will lead to strong offshore winds, and a Gale Watch is in place for nearshore and outer coastal waters. Winds will weaken slightly overnight Friday before picking back up on Saturday. Sustained winds will be over 30 knots with frequent gusts up to 45 knots possible. Waves will quickly respond to the winds, building to 11 feet in the outer coastal waters and up to 5 feet inthe nearshore waters. Sabine Pass and Texas Pass both approach low water advisory levels on Friday and Saturday during low tide, but it does not look like they will reach the -1.0 feet below MLLW necessary for an advisory. At the start of the week, conditions will begin to improve with winds falling below 20 knots for nearshore waters by Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The SPC has highlighted central Louisiana for an elevated fire risk on Friday and most of the state on Saturday. As a cold front sweeps across the area, strong north winds will lead to plummeting dew points, with minRH through the weekend below 30%. Friday night moisture recovery will be lacking, with maxRH only around 50 to 60%. A Red Flag Warning is in place for central Louisiana with a fire danger statement for the rest of the CWA. Saturday is the more concerning of the two days, with low RH values lining up with 20-foot winds near 15 mph; gusts will be frequent and higher. No rain is expected with this front, and the average KBDI value is over 700 across much of the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029- 032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515- 516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...11  857 FXUS64 KFWD 160008 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 708 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front accompanied by showers and storms will continue to move through the area this evening and overnight. Strong winds and locally heavy rain are the main concern with any more robust storm in NW North Texas. - Strong post-frontal winds with gusts up to 40-45 mph are expected much of Friday. Secure loose outdoor objects. - Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows mainly in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One last day of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected across much of the region ahead of our first true fall cold front. As of early this afternoon, the front remains to our northwest, where a minute shortwave moving through the Plains is aiding in continued shower and storm development near the boundary. A digging shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains will be the catalyst for the front to finally push south into North and Central Texas later this afternoon, with FROPA expected in our northwest around 2-3 PM. Lift from the front will interact with pooling moisture along the boundary to promote additional widespread shower and storm development near and along the front in our northwestern zones through tonight. This area has the greatest chance to observe periods of heavy rain with PWATs around 2", with most likely rainfall totals between 1-2 inches and isolated amounts closer to around 4 inches. A few instances of flash flooding in this area would not be surprising, so have issued a Flood Watch through 1 AM Friday to account for that potential. Additionally, the overall severe threat is fairly low, but we cannot rule out a few stronger wind gusts with any more organized clusters or bowing segments. The front will continue to advance south-southeast tonight, ushering in cooler temperatures and wind speeds between 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30-35 mph.) As the front pushes through, coverage and intensity of the accompanying showers and storms will lessen as they approach and pass the I-35 corridor. This weakening trend is thanks to a slug of drier air that pushed into the eastern and central portions of the region earlier today, as well as the source of lift remaining displaced to our north. However, enough moisture is expected to remain pooled to promote continued scattered showers and perhaps a couple storms near and behind the front through Friday. Any lingering precipitation should diminish Friday morning, leaving behind much cooler and windier conditions. Winds will be on the increase for much of the day Friday, with peak speeds 20-30 mph and gusts to 40-45 mph likely to occur for much of the day. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of North and Central Texas from 4 AM to 7 PM tomorrow. Make sure to secure any loose outdoor decor/furniture and to take caution when driving on W-E oriented roads. Aside from the windy conditions, Friday will be much cooler than days previous as strong CAA overspreads the region. Expect afternoon highs primarily in the 60s, with some areas in Central Texas hitting 70 degrees. This is about 15-25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures forecast for today! && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our fall-like conditions are expected to stick around on Saturday, though winds will be much more modest as the surface gradient relaxes ahead of the incoming post-frontal surface high. Expect morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs generally in the 60s. Winds will become even lighter Saturday night into Sunday as the surface highmoves overtop the region. Have lowered temperatures a bit on Sunday morning to account for the better radiational cooling potential, so morning lows may dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Unfortunately, this will not last as southerly winds return and upper level ridging begins to expand across Mexico and the Gulf, promoting a warming trend back into the 80s by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A well defined outflow boundary, spawned by earlier convection over southern Oklahoma and northwest Texas, will sweep southward through the remainder of D10 between 00z and 02z. Gusty north winds at sustained speeds of 12 to 20 knots will impact all DFW- area TAFs in its wake. The primary cold front, extending from KADM southward through KDCU to KSEP, will move rapidly southeastward and transit D10 between 00z and 03z. The pre-existing north winds over the area will rapidly increase to speeds averaging 20 to 30 knots by 06z, gusting at times in excess of 30 knots. These strong north winds will persist across D10 through 20z Friday, before diminishing. Accompanying the arrival of the strong cold front will be a wide eastward moving band of showers and stratiform rain, with isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of the rain shield. Surface and mixed-layer instability drops off markedly from the I-35 corridor eastward, and the remnant thunderstorms west of DFW at 00z should largely dissipate as they reach the middle of D10 by 01-02z. Thunder can't be ruled out at DFW, but confidence in its occurence is sufficiently low to justify only VCTS mention from 00z to 02z. Farther east, Dallas should be sufficiently stable to preclude any thunder mention this evening. That said, all DFW TAF sites are likely to experience a period of -SHRA as the axis of rainfall slides into the I-35 corridor by mid evening. Ceilings in the DFW area will steadily deteriorate from VFR conditions to MVFR as the rain shield builds eastward this evening. Post-frontal cloud conditions on the order of OVC020-025 should remain the rule across D10 overnight through roughly 14z Friday. Drier low level air will build into the region from the north after daybreak Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve toward midday. MVFR and low VFR ceilings in the DFW area will give away to mostly clear skies by 18-20z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 64 48 65 / 50 0 0 0 Waco 60 67 48 67 / 40 0 0 0 Paris 56 64 45 66 / 30 10 0 0 Denton 52 62 44 64 / 60 0 0 0 McKinney 54 63 45 65 / 50 0 0 0 Dallas 57 65 48 67 / 40 10 0 0 Terrell 57 65 46 66 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 59 66 47 67 / 30 10 0 0 Temple 59 68 47 68 / 40 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 52 62 43 63 / 80 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Bradshaw  160 FXUS61 KLWX 160057 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 857 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased winds and wind gusts for Fri night and Sat showing solidly gale force gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds & potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday. - 2) Below average temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. Possible frost and freezing temperatures in the Appalachians early Sunday. Dry each period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds & potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday. Some light rain or drizzle will be possible tonight through about 07Z or 08Z before it exits out. Low cigs will be the main concern overnight. Tomorrow, a brief period of warm temperatures and sunny conditions returns as southwest winds gradually increase throughout the day. Meanwhile, a deep digging trough forming over the Midwest will quickly traverse the Ohio River Valley before tracking towards the East Coast, forming a line of thunderstorms that will move through in the afternoon & evening timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures (with highs in the 80s by Friday afternoon) and low-end instability, some of these thunderstorms could become severe as the associated cold front tracks through the region. Due to conditions remaining relatively dry (ensemble guidance indicates PWATs ranging from 1.2-1.4 inches), the primary hazard will likely be gusty to damaging winds as DCAPE ranges in the low-1000s and shear remains elevated. SPC has included the metro regions in a Slight risk for severe weather impacts during this time period. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin- up is certainly possible. This line of thunderstorms pushes east of the area by late Friday night, but the trough will lag behind this line of thunderstorms and traverse the area throughout the day Saturday. Thus, additional rain showers remain possible into the weekend as this trough finally pushes through. While winds likely remain elevated through this period, with peak gusts over the mountains approaching 30-40 MPH, most areas likely stay below wind advisory criteria. Conditions begin to clear by Sunday, with much colder temperatures settling in in the wake of the front. Highs on Saturday only reach the mid-50s as the trough moves through, with continued cooler temperatures anticipated through the start of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. Possible frost and freezing temperatures in the Appalachians early Sunday. Dry each period. A sharp transition to cold weather is expected behind a strong cold front this weekend. This dry airmass in combination with clearing skies and weakening winds creates an ideal environment for efficient radiational cooling conditions throughout the area. Overnight temperatures could drop to near or below freezing west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday and Sunday night. Most areas across our region have opportunities for frost to form, particularly west of I-95. High pressure will build across the region Sunday through Wednesday. Light and variable winds in the mountains of the Appalachians could result in areas of frost and near freezing temperatures Sunday morning. Elsewhere and otherwise, dry conditions Sunday through Wednesday in part to the area of high pressure. Temperatures will modify some toward late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Periods of IFR are likely tonight, with CIGs gradually improving by Friday morning. Some patchy fog could linger in the early morning after showers transition east, with VFR conditions returning soon afterwards. A second cold front bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring back sub-VFR conditions beginning Friday afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms could become severe, producing gusty to damaging winds. Low clouds from this line of thunderstorms could linger into Saturday morning, with conditions returning to VFR after sunrise Saturday. Easterly winds shift southerly by Friday morning, with wind gusts up to 20-25 knots possible ahead of the cold front. Winds shift northwesterly by Saturday morning in the wake of the front, with gusts staying elevated throughout the day Saturday before diminishing overnight. VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Winds north 5 to 15 knots Sunday, becoming light and variable Sunday night through Monday night. && .MARINE... Easterly winds shift southerly overnight, staying below SCA thresholds until Friday morning. Winds could gust up to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible throughout the afternoon & evening as scattered thunderstorms move through the region. Winds shift northwesterly early Saturday morning in the wake of the cold front, potentially reaching gale conditions later that day. A Gale Watch has been issued for the lower portions of the Bay until Sunday morning as this front pushes through. Winds will diminish Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Winds northeast 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Sunday morning. Winds quickly diminishing 10 to 15 knots Sunday afternoon through Monday night and becoming light and variable. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ532>534-537-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/SRT AVIATION...LFR/KLW/SRT MARINE...LFR/KLW/SRT  420 FXUS63 KAPX 160015 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 815 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy this afternoon through Friday. Windy and cooler temperatures Friday. - Breezy conditions continue at times this weekend, with moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised rainy and increasingly windy conditions on tap over the next 24-36 hours with current focus on two inbound areas of low pressure. The first currently sitting near the Manitoba/Ontario/Minnesota border and dropping southeast, while the second wave continues to trek northeast out of the south- central Plains. The parent waves of these features currently in the process of phasing upstream with the end result expected to be one larger area of sfc low pressure that crosses lower Michigan tonight before racing quickly east to New England through the day on Friday. Upper-level heights build behind this system over the weekend with renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Primary focus through Friday evening revolves around incoming widespread rain this afternoon through much of tonight. As this system pushes downstream on Friday, continued wrap around moisture will result in additional numerous showers and increasingly strong NNW winds. Strong cold air advection on Friday as a result, which will eventually bring an increased lake component (aiding in additional shower activity), especially Friday afternoon through Friday evening. PWs remain progged as high as 1-1.5" across the forecast area early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climatological mean for mid-October. Should be a fairly steady moderate rain for much of the forecast area through tonight, especially beneficial for those in expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon up a bit from 24 hours ago -- largely ranging from 0.60 - 1.00". As one would expect, probabilities have also increased for localized amounts of 1.00"+, up to 50-80% across portions of the area, most notably in NNW flow lake effect area that see the most numerous continued shower activity Friday afternoon/evening. Some very low (<15%) probs for 2"+ amounts still evident over the same area. Depending on how much shower activity remains after sunset Friday, which there will likely be at least some, a few inland/higher terrain locations could mix in or change over to some wet snow given continued cold advection with H8 temps progged as low as -6 to -8C. Think the primary limiting factors to this will be decreasing moisture depth with the loss of synoptic support and low-level winds almost out of the due north by this point, which will likely limit overall shower coverage across those typically colder higher terrain areas up the spine of north-central lower. Nonetheless, it's still within the realm of possibilities that a few spots coat the ground in the season's first snow. Winds Friday become increasingly gusty out of the north-northwest. Frequent gusts expected to range from 25-35 mph area-wide with those nearest the coasts having the highest likelihood to gust 40+ mph at times Friday afternoon. This weekend, drier weather expected to prevail with continued cool temperatures on Saturday (low-mid 50s) moderating for Sunday (low- mid 60s). That said, and while high pressure will largely be in control locally, low pressure passing well to north through Canada will result in enough of a pinched pressure gradient to bring the return of breezyto gusty winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. High temps Monday - Wednesday largely in the 60s with the next chance for rain returning toward Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 RA moving through the area is resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs and vis over most terminals this evening. RA/-RA will continue through 06z. Light N/NE winds will be AOB 6kts through 07z. A stronger FROPA will move through from 07 thru 12z and turn winds to NW/NNW. Intermittent -SHRA will form and continue through the period for KTVC/KMBL. Cigs will generally be MVFR after 12z and last through the end of the period. NW winds will strengthen after 14z, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...ELD  420 FXUS63 KAPX 160015 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 815 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy this afternoon through Friday. Windy and cooler temperatures Friday. - Breezy conditions continue at times this weekend, with moderating temperatures Sunday into at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised rainy and increasingly windy conditions on tap over the next 24-36 hours with current focus on two inbound areas of low pressure. The first currently sitting near the Manitoba/Ontario/Minnesota border and dropping southeast, while the second wave continues to trek northeast out of the south- central Plains. The parent waves of these features currently in the process of phasing upstream with the end result expected to be one larger area of sfc low pressure that crosses lower Michigan tonight before racing quickly east to New England through the day on Friday. Upper-level heights build behind this system over the weekend with renewed surface high pressure looking to renew drier conditions and gradually moderating temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Primary focus through Friday evening revolves around incoming widespread rain this afternoon through much of tonight. As this system pushes downstream on Friday, continued wrap around moisture will result in additional numerous showers and increasingly strong NNW winds. Strong cold air advection on Friday as a result, which will eventually bring an increased lake component (aiding in additional shower activity), especially Friday afternoon through Friday evening. PWs remain progged as high as 1-1.5" across the forecast area early this evening through the first half of the overnight hours -- some +1 to 3 SD above the climatological mean for mid-October. Should be a fairly steady moderate rain for much of the forecast area through tonight, especially beneficial for those in expanding drought across the eastern U.P. Favored QPF amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon up a bit from 24 hours ago -- largely ranging from 0.60 - 1.00". As one would expect, probabilities have also increased for localized amounts of 1.00"+, up to 50-80% across portions of the area, most notably in NNW flow lake effect area that see the most numerous continued shower activity Friday afternoon/evening. Some very low (<15%) probs for 2"+ amounts still evident over the same area. Depending on how much shower activity remains after sunset Friday, which there will likely be at least some, a few inland/higher terrain locations could mix in or change over to some wet snow given continued cold advection with H8 temps progged as low as -6 to -8C. Think the primary limiting factors to this will be decreasing moisture depth with the loss of synoptic support and low-level winds almost out of the due north by this point, which will likely limit overall shower coverage across those typically colder higher terrain areas up the spine of north-central lower. Nonetheless, it's still within the realm of possibilities that a few spots coat the ground in the season's first snow. Winds Friday become increasingly gusty out of the north-northwest. Frequent gusts expected to range from 25-35 mph area-wide with those nearest the coasts having the highest likelihood to gust 40+ mph at times Friday afternoon. This weekend, drier weather expected to prevail with continued cool temperatures on Saturday (low-mid 50s) moderating for Sunday (low- mid 60s). That said, and while high pressure will largely be in control locally, low pressure passing well to north through Canada will result in enough of a pinched pressure gradient to bring the return of breezyto gusty winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. High temps Monday - Wednesday largely in the 60s with the next chance for rain returning toward Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 RA moving through the area is resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs and vis over most terminals this evening. RA/-RA will continue through 06z. Light N/NE winds will be AOB 6kts through 07z. A stronger FROPA will move through from 07 thru 12z and turn winds to NW/NNW. Intermittent -SHRA will form and continue through the period for KTVC/KMBL. Cigs will generally be MVFR after 12z and last through the end of the period. NW winds will strengthen after 14z, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...ELD  661 FXUS63 KGID 160022 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 722 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Aviation and Key Messages Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - In the wake of departing rain, dry weather is likely across our entire forecast area through at least Sunday night, and probably through at least Tuesday. - In the wake of a cold front, blustery north-northwest winds will prevail overnight into much of Friday daytime before becoming much lighter late afternoon-early evening. Gusts as high as at least 40-45 MPH likely at times especially some areas north of I-80. - As winds become light Friday night-early Sat AM, we are almost certainly headed toward our first widespread frost of the season, and probably also at least a "soft freeze" between 29-32 degrees for most places. A Freeze Watch has been issued for our entire area. - After one more day with highs only in the 50s on Friday, temperatures gradually warm into the 60s and eventually 70s over the next several days. - Although still a TON of uncertainty this far out in time, at least low chances for rain return to our area by next Wed- Thurs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming. The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch. The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 722 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR visibility and precip-free weather throughout the entire period, and high confidence in VFR ceiling through a good majority of the period (main concern is a 4-6 hour "window of opportunity" for at least intermittent MVFR on Friday morning). Otherwise, moderately-strong north- northwesterly winds will prevail through most of the period at the surface (gusts commonly at least 25-30KT). In addition, moderately-strong low low level wind shear (LLWS) is in play through tonight into the first part of Friday daytime. - Ceiling details/uncertainty: Extremely high confidence in not only VFR but also mostly clear skies through both the first several hours and final several hours of the period. However, the middle portion...particularly 09-15Z...carries a little more uncertainty as a batch of lower stratus currently over the Dakotas sinks southward into the area. Typically-reliable model guidance strongly suggests that at least a low-end VFR ceiling between 3-4K ft. AGl is likely during this time (and perhaps for a few hours beyond 15Z). However, the "wild card" is whether some MVFR sneaks in as well. This possibility appears to carry just enough weight that a TEMPO group for at least intermittent MVFR has been included for 10-14Z. Beyond especially 18Z and into the afternoon, very high confidence VFR returns as skies again steadily clear. - Wind details: - Surface winds: The vast majority of the period will feature fairly consistent and moderately-strong north-northwest winds...commonly sustained around 20KT and gusting at least 25-30KT. However, a gradual decrease in speeds will commence during the afternoon...especially noticeable after 21Z...with sustained speeds decreasing to no more than 5-10KT by the very end of the period. - Low level wind shear (LLWS): Despite the already moderately-strong surface winds, even more intense north-northwesterly winds of at least 45-50KT will prevail slightly above the surface (particularly between 1,500-2,000K ft. AGL) throughout the night and into the first part of Friday daytime...promoting at least 30KT of low level shear magnitude through much of this time. As a result, previously introduced LLWS has not only been maintained in latest TAFs, but also extended a few hours until 14Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Pfannkuch  076 FXUS64 KMOB 160031 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 731 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area Friday afternoon and into Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires over the weekend. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the coming week. Gale force wind gusts are expected, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The primary focus for this forecast period will be the potential for fog, some potentially dense, late tonight into early Friday morning. It appears that with high pressure in place and light southerly flow off of the Gulf, that there will be enough low level moisture in place to support fog development. This will be most probably along the coast with decreasing potential further inland where the airmass remains drier. IFR visibilities will be possible between 09-13z, especially at KMOB. Otherwise light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong,especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  917 FXUS65 KABQ 160028 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 628 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area today, creating strong north winds across eastern NM and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys by this evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast late tonight into Friday morning for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Even colder conditions are forecast Friday night. - Rain chances return Monday and continue through much of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong backdoor cold front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening as a large area of high pressure builds south along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will develop over the Desert Southwest before traversing back toward the Baja Peninsula. The resulting tightening pressure gradient will produce a significant easterly wind event across much of the region that will last through the day on Friday. Winds have already started increasing across northeastern portions of New Mexico and will continue to spread into the central mountain ranges, Rio Grande Valley, and eastern slopes of the high terrain this evening. Strong to potentially damaging gusts are expected in the usual canyon and gap wind corridors along and immediately west of the central mountain chain, as well as near the mouths of canyons and across portions of the South Central Highlands and upper Tularosa Valley. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for those locations. A much colder airmass will accompany this boundary, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season so far for much of the region. Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, and a Freeze Warning has been issued for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, and Moriarty. Strong easterly winds will continue through Friday, especially along and west of the central mountain ranges. Afternoon highs on Friday will range from the low 50s to low 60s, roughly 5-20 degrees below average! Additional freezing temperatures are becoming increasingly likely Friday night into Saturday morning as winds begin to ease up and skies remain clear, key conditions for efficient radiational cooling. A widespread Freeze Watch was issued for much of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry conditions will prevail Saturday as the aforementioned upper low propagates toward the Baja Peninsula and ridging develops over the Southwest. High temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year through the weekend. By Saturday evening into Sunday, the upper low begins to weaken and may begin to lift to the the northeast, allowing for some moisture to return. Overall forcing is minimal, so precipitation changes are on the lower side. However, the greatest chances will be focused over western New Mexico where the low's eventual track and the greatest moisture advection will likely set up. Once we move into early next week, attention turns to a strong Pacific low pressure system that will dig across the West Coast before traversing inland. Increasing moisture ahead of this system should support a gradual return of precipitation chances early to midweek. Forecast timing and placement of this system remains uncertain, but current guidance suggests Thursday/Friday could be the most favorable day for more widespread precipitation. Details will continue to be refined the closer we get to the event. Cooler temperatures are still expected to persist, and snow will be possible across the highest peaks if temperatures and eventual system track remain favorable. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong backdoor cold front will continue to funnel strong east and northeast winds through eastern, central, west central and southwest areas tonight. Wind speeds will trend weaker on the eastern plains after midnight. The gap wind through the central mountain chian will produce east wind gusts up to 50 KT below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys from Albuquerque southward from mid evening well into the late night hours; lingering longest south of Highway 60. Will extend the Airport Weather Warning for wind gusts over 35 KT at KABQ until 16Z Friday, but the 50 KT gusts should end there around 06Z. High res models depict areas of low clouds producing MVFR and spotty IFR conditions along the east slopes of the central mountain chain from late this evening until mid morning on Friday. Greatest confidence of low clouds producing flight category restrictions is at KSRR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next week. A strong backdoor front will push southwestward across the state this afternoon and evening, bringing windy conditions and notably colder temperatures. Sustained winds will range roughly between 25-35 mph with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph. As a result of yesterday's cold front and the back door front today, significantly drier air is in the cards through Saturday, with minimum RH ranging from the teens to 20s. Humidity will be back on the upswing Sunday into Monday as a weak Pacific low approaches from the southwest and advects tropical moisture to the region, but with low chances for wetting precipitation. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late next week with higher moisture content and good chances for wetting precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 65 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 34 64 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 35 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 38 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 35 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 45 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 29 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 48 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 51 12 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 28 59 22 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 28 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 37 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 44 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 56 30 59 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 35 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 35 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 29 50 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 55 22 66 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 58 20 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 55 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 57 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 62 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 45 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 41 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 53 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241. Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ227-228-230-231- 235-236. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ222-223- 228>230. High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-220-224-225. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...44  076 FXUS64 KMOB 160031 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 731 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area Friday afternoon and into Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires over the weekend. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the coming week. Gale force wind gusts are expected, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Looking at the big picture, for tonight through Sunday night, a deep upper trough passing over northern portions of the Southeast and north will move a strong cold front across the forecast area beginning mid-day Friday and south of area waters by 06z/1am Friday night. A dry airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 levels 1.1-1.5" north of the coast, 1.5" up along the coast and south). This will help to limit any rainfall to near coastal and open Gulf Friday afternoon and night ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. Winds shift to northeasterly over land areas, easterly over open Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as a surface ridge builds south from along the Appalachians. Looking at impacts for land areas, the first is a possible wind advisory for late Friday into Saturday. North to northeasterly winds around 15kt/17mph with frequent gusts of 25-30kts/29-35mph with high values being possible. Areas south of Highway 84 most likely affected. A drier airmass will move in behind the front. Combined with the winds, and Severe Drought conditions, an increase in the risk of wildfires is possible Saturday (more below). For marine impacts, read below. Temperatures are in for a nose-dive behind the front, with high temperatures in the much above seasonal mid to upper 80s Friday dropping into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low 60s to near 70 tonight to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 50s south of I-10. For Monday on, an upper ridge over the Plains moves over the Southeast and builds. High temperatures increase to back above seasonal norms, especially over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama State line. Low temperatures are slower to rise, with general northeasterly flow and a dry airmass helping with radiational cooling overnight. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The primary focus for this forecast period will be the potential for fog, some potentially dense, late tonight into early Friday morning. It appears that with high pressure in place and light southerly flow off of the Gulf, that there will be enough low level moisture in place to support fog development. This will be most probably along the coast with decreasing potential further inland where the airmass remains drier. IFR visibilities will be possible between 09-13z, especially at KMOB. Otherwise light winds and VFR conditions will prevail. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A light, diurnally variable, flow tonight into Friday becomes a strong to very strong northerly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong,especially over open Gulf waters. With frequent gusts over gale force along with some areas seeing sustained winds close to gales, a Gale Watch is in effect for all waters Friday night into Saturday morning, tapering to just offshore waters into Sunday. A Small Craft is likely to be issued after the Gales goes down, and lasting into the coming week, especially over open Gulf waters, with a tighter gradient creating the strong easterly flow. /16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Strong northerly winds, dry fuels, and Severe Drought over areas well inland from the coast will create an increased risk of wildfires over the forecast area Saturday and possibly into Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for our Mississippi counties. Regardless, all areas should remain alert to the possibility of wildfires this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ630>636. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$  860 FXAK68 PAFC 160047 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 447 PM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall along the immediate northern Gulf coast and eastern Kenai Peninsula will slowly trend lighter this afternoon into this evening, as the vertically stacked low in the southwestern Gulf slowly drifts east and onshore flow weakens. Within the broad longwave troughing stretching from the Bering Sea across the Gulf, shortwaves embedded in the flow rotate inland allowing for periods of light rain to spill over the mountains at times. The western Kenai up through Anchorage and the MatSu, as well as the southern Copper Basin, could see up to a tenth or two of light rain through this evening. Periods of snow will be possible at higher elevations with snow levels fluctuating between 2500 ft to 4000 ft along the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. The strongest of such waves should clear the region by late tonight with lighter, more showery precipitation lingering along the coast through Friday as the low weakens and tracks east across the central Gulf. Gusty winds through favored gaps, along the coast, and within Prince William Sound weaken to small craft or below through this evening in the wake of the wave pushing inland. The upper trough slowly translates eastwards towards the Panhandle through the remainder of the weekend, with drier conditions expected across Southcentral as weak, transient ridging moves over the region. Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with temperatures well below freezing across the Copper Basin and near or just below freezing across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the MatSu by Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A low is tracking east into the western Gulf of Alaska this afternoon, sending precipitation across the Alaska Range and spreading throughout Southwest Alaska. An additional wave of precipitation will move across the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Valley region tonight. Some of this could reach Aniak, but there is a smaller potential (around 30 percent) that some of the this could spill farther west into the Kuskokwim Delta. More likely though (40 to 60 percent), the deformation band will set up in the Kuskokwim Valley and through Bristol Bay. Models are not handling the exact location of this feature well. Therefore, confidence for the location and the timing/duration of the precipitation forecast in Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta in the near term is relatively low- medium. Gusty winds and precipitation will linger across the central to eastern Bering Sea as cold air advects south under northerly flow. These winds are expected to gradually decrease throughout the day Friday as high pressure upstream pushes east and weakens. Offshore flow across Southwest coupled with the synoptic setup is yielding to additional cold air advection across Mainland Southwest tonight through this weekend. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler over the next few days. Precipitation type will gradually transition to a mix rain and snow by Friday morning across the Kuskokwim and portions of Bristol Bay. The most probable locations for precipitation Friday afternoon and Saturday morning for Southwest will be closer to higher elevations and the Kuskokwim Valley. Any precipitation lingering Saturday morning should be fully transitioned to snow. Meanwhile, a gale force front is tracking through the Western Bering Sea and Aleutians this evening and is expected to continue toward the Central Bering Friday night into Saturday morning where it will weaken nearly in place. Behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday morning, the Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)... By Monday morning, there is fair confidence (60 to 70%) for a low pressure system, with a depth near 995 mb, to be moving inland into the Kuskokwim Delta, potentially bringing strong onshore winds and wave action to the coast. Given southerly flow continuing to bring in warmer air, rainfall is expected with this system. Additionally, the front of this low is set to break off into a triple-point low spinning up in the western Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning, pushing inland to Southcentral through Monday bringing similar conditions to the northern Gulf Coast. Confidence in increasing with regards to the progression of a stronger low moving into our area south of the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, this low may be near 960 mb and would work to drive stronger winds along the Alaska Peninsula as well as bring a large swath of rainfall across the area. By Tuesday night/Wednesday morning moderate model agreement suggests the progression of this low pressure system into the northern Gulf of Alaska bringing it's round of active weather to the Southcentral coastline. There is poor model agreement regarding the progression of the low beyond Wednesday, with several solutions weakening the low in the northern Gulf, while others hold on to it's strength. However, generally unsettled weather expected for the region through the long-term period. && .AVIATION... PANC...A series of upper level short-waves will rotate from the Gulf up across Anchorage this evening, which could bring an occasional short period of light rain. With deep southeasterly flow aloft VFR conditions will persist. Meanwhile, northerly winds will shift to southeasterly off of Turnagain Arm between 03Z and 06Z. The strongest winds will remain out over Turnagain Arm and stable air near the surface is not conducive to producing gusty conditions. With that said, there is a chance (30-40%) of a few wind gusts at the terminal in the 12-20 kt range this evening. && $$  834 FXUS64 KBMX 160046 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 746 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Friday evening, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 Near record high temperatures remain in the forecast for the next two days, as the region remains situated under a stout ridge at the surface, and the upper-levels. Thankfully, this ridging pattern will begin to break down into Friday evening, as a very deep trough and cold front begin to move SE through the Midwest. Winds ahead of, and behind this cold front will be rather strong, as the pressure gradient becomes quite tight. Sustained winds through the weekend will range between 10-15 MPH, with gusts over 25+ MPH at times. It's these stiff winds that will quickly usher in much cooler weather, with overnight lows on Friday dropping into the mid-40s and low-50s. Highs through the weekend will generally range in the 60's, with lows generally ranging 40's. By Monday, temperatures will begin to slowly rebound, as weak upper-level ridging begins to reestablish itself off to our west. Thankfully, this rise in temperature is expected to be gradual, with only upper-70s expected by the middle of next week. Limited rainfall is expected the next seven days as well, with only low shower chances on Friday ahead of the passing cold front due to limited moisture. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for most tonight with surface ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds. The exception will be at TCL/MGM where some patchy ground fog may occur in the pre- dawn hours through shortly after sunrise. I have a TEMPO from 9-13z for this. Otherwise, a front will be moving through the area on Friday. Winds will shift to W then NW during the day as it move through. Some may be gusty during the afternoon. May not shift at AUO until the end of the period though. There is a low probability of a rain shower, but as overall moisture is limited will forgo mention in TAFs ATTM. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move through the area Friday into Friday evening leading to gusty winds, isolated light showers, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 84 47 65 / 0 20 10 0 Anniston 63 84 48 65 / 0 20 10 0 Birmingham 64 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0 Tuscaloosa 63 85 50 68 / 0 20 10 0 Calera 63 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0 Auburn 64 84 52 67 / 0 20 20 0 Montgomery 64 86 52 69 / 0 20 10 0 Troy 63 85 51 68 / 0 20 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...08  231 FXAK67 PAJK 160011 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 411 PM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Message: - Moderate to heavy rain continues for much of the panhandle. A flood watch and several flood advisories will persist through tomorrow afternoon. - Windy conditions continues through early tomorrow morning, with high wind warnings and wind advisories for most of the panhandle. - A strong low moving up Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal will cause quickly changing wind conditions in the inner channels and land areas. && .SHORT TERM...Main story tonight into Friday continues to be multiple systems pushing up into the panhandle, rotating around a parent low in the western Gulf, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain alongside gusty winds to the area. The first round of heavy rainfall will last into the late afternoon to early evening today, currently bringing rain rates of up to 0.15-0.30 in/hr across the panhandle with around 1 to 2 inches already fallen by this afternoon. An additional 1 to 2.5 inches is expected through Friday morning as a second low moves into the panhandle beginning tonight, with the heaviest precipitation still expected across the southern panhandle from Ketchikan up to Petersburg along the coastal range. This low will begin to strengthen and move inland around Chatham Strait / Baranof Island tonight, moving northward over the panhandle and bringing both another burst of elevated winds and a band of heavier precipitation moving up into the central and southern panhandle. The amounts for the southern panhandle remain largely unchanged through tonight, however the area from Baranof Island up to Juneau is expected to see higher precipitation totals with this increased confidence on the low pushing into the central panhandle. With this additional rainfall, areas from Sitka up along Frederick Sound / Stephens Passage to the Juneau area will see higher rainfall amounts than initially expected, and with it may see some river and creek rises. Juneau in particular may see an additional 1.5 to 2.5 inches through Friday morning, with creeks in Mendenhall Valley now being under a Flood Advisory for minor flooding due to the heavy rainfall. For more information about this, and hydrologic concerns across the rest of the panhandle, see the Hydrology section below. LONG TERM...The start of the long term looks to remain active with the low pressure continuing to persist. This will allow for clouds and precipitation to continue to impact the area. This low eventually dissipates while a stronger low looks to pass south of the area and high pressure builds in Canada. Behind this low, high pressure is expected to move in to the Gulf behind this stronger low which may allow for us to see a break Sunday evening into Monday morning. Headed into the start of next week, ensemble guidance wants to bring another low into the western Gulf. The main difference between EPS and GEFS guidance is where this low comes from. EPS wants to bring a low up from the south on Monday and have it merge with a low that is expected to persist in the Bering Sea before moving towards the Cook Inlet area Tuesday. This low then tracks into Prince William Sound Tuesday evening into Wednesday. GEFS guidance wants to bring the low from the Bering Sea on Monday and track it across the Alaska Peninsula and Cook Inlet before moving remaining offshore near Prince William Sound. && .AVIATION...The first band of heavier rain (IFR to MVFR ceilings) and stronger winds (areas of low level wind shear) along and ahead of a weakening frontal boundary continues pushing across the Alaska Panhandle this afternoon. As the front pushes further to the east and weakens tonight, rains and gustier windsover the northern quarter of the panhandle will diminish tonight. To the south, however, another small low will ride up the frontal occlusion and will tighten the pressure gradient a bit for some gustier winds, and will also focus more heavier rains (lower ceilings) for portions of the southern 2/3rds of the panhandle into Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, we should start seeing some improvement to MVFR/VFR across much of the area as the low weakens. 05/Garmon && MARINE... Outer waters: Largely a diminishing trend for the outside waters, with a bulk of the stronger winds over the panhandle. One exception is the western coast of Prince of Wales Island, within the main moisture plume and energy. Therefore, keeping wind speeds around near gale to gale for Dixon Entrance and the western coast of PoW. Similar story for wave heights, with subsiding waves from around 20 ft down to 8-10 ft. Looking to have a convective environment for tomorrow, with a widespread slight chance of thunderstorms in the gulf embedded within the post frontal showers. Inside Waters: Complicated forecast for the inner channel waters through Saturday, with a strengthening low pressure system looking to develop and move northward up Chatham Strait and Lynn Canal through Friday morning. East of this system, southeasterlies up to 30 knots will transition sharply to westerlies as the low moves northward. To the northwest of the low as it moves northward, slight westerlies up to 20 knots will persist in places like Icy Strait and Peril Strait. North of the low, light winds to 10 knot northerlies will preceed the low moving over the area. Therefore, expect to see some radically different wind speeds and directions depending on any given locations placement in relation to the low. Behind the low, after the initial westerlies from the cold occluded front, southerly winds will continue well into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY...A strong atmospheric river associated with the current systems moving through will continue to bring heavy rainfall to the panhandle, with continued IVT values of over 500 kg/ms moving into the area. The second wave of this system associated with a low swiftly moving in from the south will still primarily impact the southern panhandle from Ketchikan up to Petersburg. However, the biggest chance in the forecast today is the strengthening of the low as it and moves northward, pushing into the central panhandle tonight and bringing heavier precipitation amounts into the central and northern panhandle. A main band of heavy rainfall looks to impact Baranof Island up to Juneau, bringing an additional 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain tonight through Friday morning. With this additional heavier rainfall pushing more northward of the portion of the southern panhandle under a Flood Watch, a Flood Advisory and two Special Weather Statements have been issued. For the Flood Advisory, the heavy rainfall and longer duration for the Juneau area will bring minor flooding to Montana Creek and Jordan Creek by Friday morning, with the Flood Advisory being out until Friday evening due to Jordan Creek in particular taking longer to fall below minor flood stage. For the Special Weather Statements, the rest of Juneau is included in one as other streams in the area besides Montana Creek and Jordan may still see rises into Friday, however flooding is not a concern for these other streams at this time. The other Special Weather Statement is for the central and northern panhandle with the river and creek rises expected with this heavy rainfall, however flooding is also not a concern at this time. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ323-325. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ326-329. Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327-328. High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-652-661. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 662>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...JG MARINE...NC HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  539 FXUS61 KBGM 160020 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 820 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little change to previous forecast. Added some thunder in for the overnight hours with the warm front moving in. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday with a strong frontal passage Friday night. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A deepening low over the central US will lift into the Great Lakes tonight with a warm front moving into the Northeast. Clouds will begin to increase tonight with a strong low level jet developing. Stable air in the low levels will prevent most of the winds from mixing down but downslope areas of the Finger Lakes into the foot hills south of the NY Thruway may see some gusts of 30 mph tonight. Showers and even a few thunderstorms develop tonight as the warm front lifts in so some thunder was added to the grids after Midnight. The region will be in the warm sector of the low tomorrow. Trends have brought the path of the low a little farther north so odds of some clearing for the Southern Tier and southward has increased. This has helped increase the potential for a little bit of CAPE to develop (roughly between 200 and 400 J/kg). Given shear is over 50 knots, and the cold front being a strong trigger for storms, the potential for thunderstorms along the front to produce strong winds have increased. SPC has moved a slight risk into most of NEPA and parts of the Southern Tier. Forecast hodographs do have some low level curvature ahead of the front, so if there is enough sun to get better surface based CAPE (>500 J/kg), a brief spin up is possible. Precipitation transitions to lake effect rain showers once the front goes through tomorrow evening. NEPA will dry out quickly behind the front as the lake effect rain showers will struggle to make it much past the Southern Tier of NY. 850 mb temperatures plummet post front, falling to near -10C by Saturday morning. Forecast soundings really dry out the boundary layer and a subsidence inversion lowers quickly but given the lake temperatures, lake effect showers will continue longer than modeled. It is looking likely that some of the higher elevations of NY for the Southern Tier and northward could see some flurries Saturday morning when the coldest air moves through. KEY MESSAGE 2... Next week the northeast looks to remain mostly under a large upper level ridge. With weak warm air advection aloft, 850 mb temperatures warm to between 8C and 14C for much of the week. This is well above average for mid October and with dry air in place, sunny conditions will help day time temperatures warm into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will still be on the cooler side with good conditions for radiational cooling most nights. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue prior to midnight. After about 05-06Z, showers and lowering ceilings are expected to start moving in as the next system approaches. Conditions will likely continue getting worse through the early morning hours with MVFR/Fuel-alt restrictions and embedded IFR conditions. There could also be some embedded thunderstorms early Friday morning, but confidence on where is low. Confidence also remains low at this time for the potential for brief southerly LLWS. Model guidance is showing some mixing overnight and if that is the case, it will be more low level turbulence than low level wind shear. However, where surface winds stay below 10 knots, LLWS conditions will be likely. South to southwest winds increase tomorrow morning into the afternoonahead of a line of convective showers or even embedded thunderstorms that can produce gusty winds. Thunder will be added in future updates as confidence increases on location. Toward the end of the TAF, west to west-northwest west winds are expected with gusts of 20-25 knots persisting along with lingering restrictions. Outlook... Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG/MWG AVIATION...DK/MPK  184 FXUS61 KBUF 160011 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 753 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. Sharp mid level trough will advance into the Great Lakes tonight through Friday. Surface low pressure will strengthen across the Great lakes tonight and move into southern Ontario by Friday morning, reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by Friday afternoon. The expected track of the surface low will allow the warm sector to build into the lower Great Lakes. A period of strong warm advection and moisture transport, enhanced by a 50+ knot low level jet, will arrive tonight and support an initial wave of rainfall. This rain will arrive in western New York by around midnight, then spread quickly northeast overnight. Additional periods of rain will continue Friday through Friday evening as the trailing cold front moves southeast across the region, supported by mid level height falls and right entrance region jet dynamics. Marginal instability in the warm sector may support a few embedded thunderstorms as well late tonight through Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. It will become quite windy late tonight through Friday. A 50+ knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. Gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range areawide, with gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph in downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north of the Tug Hill Plateau briefly. Boundary layer flow will quickly swing around to the southwest Friday morning through mid afternoon, with gusts still in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and up to 45 mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop Friday night in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes Friday night, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late Friday night through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s Saturday night on the lake plains, with some 20s likely across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. The cold air will quickly depart, with temperatures back above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, W'erly flow backs gradually to SW'erly as a ridge exits E'ward and a trough axis approaches from the north-central U.S. and eventually the central Great Lakes through 00Z/Sat. At the surface, a ridge continues to exit E'ward as a strengthening low wobbles NE'ward from near the southwestern Great Lakes to southern QC. This low track will allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Western and Central NY between ~04Z/Fri and ~13Z/Fri before a cold front sweeps E'ward through our region between ~17Z/Fri and ~22Z/Fri. Behind the front, troughing lingers over Western and Central NY through 00Z/Sat. Ahead of the warm front, our regional surface winds veer from NE'erly to SE'erly around 5 to 10 knots. The warm front passage will cause surface winds to veer to S'erly to SW'erly and these winds will increase to around 10 to 20 knots in response to the strengthening surface low. Gusts up to 20 to 35 knots at times are expected. The cold front passage will cause surface winds to veer to W'erly to NW'erly around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 20 to 35 knots at times. Note: a SW'erly low-level jet of ~40 to ~50 knots at/near 925 mb should translate NE'ward across our region Friday morning and result in periodic low-level wind shear. Widespread ceilings, primarily in the mid/upper-levels at first, will thicken and lower gradually to the MVFR to IFR range and generally from WSW to ENE the rest of this evening through ~08Z/Fri. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are then expected through 00Z/Sat. Widespread rain, steady to heavy at times and associated with the low pressure system, should blossom over and overspread Western and Central NY generally from WSW to ENE between ~01Z/Fri and ~08Z/Fri. Isolated thunderstorms may be embedded within this widespread rain. Visibility should be reduced to MVFR to IFR at times, especially with any thunderstorms and periods of steady to heavy rain. The widespread rain and any embedded thunderstorms should exit our region generally from west to east following the passage of the aforementioned surface cold front. However, scattered rain showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front should linger through 00Z/Sat. Also, lake-effect rain showers should develop over and generally SE of the eastern Great Lakes between ~21Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat. Periodic MVFR visibility is possible with steadier showers behind the surface cold front. Outlook... Friday night...Mainly MVFR ceilings with scattered rain showers over and generally SSE of the eastern Great Lakes. Rain may mix with wet snow during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, especially inland from the lakes. Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings and isolated rain and/or wet snow showers over and generally SSE of the eastern Great Lakes should end by late morning. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR expected. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR and dry weather likely. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on both lakes this afternoon, but winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will track across the southern Great Lakes tonight, reaching southern Ontario Friday morning. This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast across the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday, reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Southerly winds will increase overnight tonight ahead of the system, then quickly veer to the southwest and west Friday as the low passes by just north of the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty north-northwest winds Friday night through Saturday morning. Sustained winds during this timeframe will average 20-30 knots, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Some periodic gusts to near gale force are possible. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...TMA  499 FXUS61 KGYX 160019 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 819 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures are on their way down with thin high cloud and near calm wind. Many locations have fallen 6 to 10 degrees over the past hour, particularly inland. Have adjusted this trend over the next few hour before clouds thicken. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure crosses on Friday, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area. 2. A seasonably cold airmass pushes in behind the system to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain. 3. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure passes through this evening, and quickly moves off to the east through the overnight hours. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks eastward through the Great Lakes overnight tonight, with rain pushing into western New Hampshire by sunrise tomorrow. Periods of rain and showers move through during the morning, and become more showery by the afternoon across much of New Hampshire and western Maine. Low pressure tracks near the Canadian border through the day, with a cold front crossing through late in the day and through the evening hours. Some additional pop up showers or even a few thunderstorms will be possible across southern New Hampshire where a few peaks of sun help temps push into the mid 60s during the day. Overall around a half inch of rainfall is expected, with a little less across southern areas, and a little more to the north. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system deepens across the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, while high pressure is building westward into New England. This sets up a gusty northwesterly wind, and transports a Canadian airmass that's cold for mid October. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected through the daytime, while highs range from the 30s across the north, to only near 50 along the coast. Across the higher terrain, wintertime conditions are expected from Friday night through Sunday morning. Accumulating snowfall across the upslope terrain, temperatures in the teens, and wind chills well below zero are all expected. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. Scattered snow showers across the mountains on Saturday morning gradually decrease in coverage through the day, but a few flurries are likely to drift downwind of the mountains through the day while gradually drying up. Saturday night will then by far be the coldest night of the season across the area. Widespread lows in the 20s and breezy conditions are in store for Saturday night. Lows below freezing are expected to the coastline across the region as well. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure crests over the region on Sunday and looks to stay nosed in through at least the daylight hours of next Thursday. This will bring an extended period of mild daytime temperatures, and likely some pretty chilly nights due to radiational cooling, as well as dry weather. Sunday will be the transition day with high temperatures in the low to mid-50s with mostly clear skies, but after a raw Saturday this will probably feel comfortable. Afterwards, most days should feature abundant sunshine with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s. Periods of clouds are possible with subtle troughing aloft, but the midlevel airmass looks very dry which will preclude any threat for precipitation. Low temperatures look to be generally around normal being in the upper 20s to mid-30s north to south, but of course any night where strong radiationalcooling takes place, can end up quite cold. Looking at long range ensembles 850-700 mb temperatures stay right around the 0 C mark through this stretch so certainly some cold nights could come to fruition, but nothing crazy. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...VFR continues through midnight local. Clouds will begin thickening and lowering amid onshore flow, and most interior locations will see MVFR cigs becoming dominant shortly after daybreak. Expect a hard crash to IFR cigs for southern NH through the morning, with southern ME following into the early afternoon. HIE may be the only TAF that stays VFR/MVFR through Fri, other than a period of RA BR. There is a weak signal for a period of BR/FG following an initial round of rain in the morning and early afternoon across the forecast area, before the cold front brings another round of showers later in the afternoon with a wind shift. Cigs outside of the mountains trend VFR into the evening, but winds will increase from the NW. Outlook: Saturday...MVFR/IFR cigs could remain for HIE through the morning with -SHRASN, otherwise VFR expected. The most notable feature for the day will be NW gusts 25 to 30 kts, slackening in the evening. Sunday-Tuesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns. && .MARINE... Southerly winds freshen ahead of an approaching cold front tonight, with SCA conditions across the waters by mid morning on Friday. The cold front crosses through tomorrow night, with SCA conditions continuing in northwesterly winds late Friday night through Saturday evening. Winds gradually ease Saturday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday through much of next week as high pressure settles over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Clair/Cornwell AVIATION...Cornwell  882 FXUS61 KRNK 160027 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 827 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers today, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. 2) Gusty winds Friday night into Saturday morning. Below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost possible in the mountains Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers today, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A backdoor cold front is currently draped across the area, roughly oriented parallel to the US 460 corridor, and has been the focus for scattered showers through the day so far, mainly to southeast WV, the northern New River Valley and into the Roanoke Valley. Precipitation will continue into the evening, as the front nearly stalls over the region. Some MLCAPE is present along the warm frontal part of the low pressure system, which will slowly start to lift northward over WV and into the OH Valley, which will keep slight chances of thunderstorms in the west and Alleghany Highlands area for today. Cloud cover along and behind the front will suppress afternoon high temperatures in the northern half of the forecast area, mainly in the low to mid 70s. South of the front, temperatures are already in the upper 70s to even low 80s, so will likely see low to mid 80s for those areas. Overall, these temperatures are still 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals. KEY MESSAGE 2: Gusty winds Friday night into Saturday morning. Below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost possible in the mountains Sunday morning. A strong cold front and an amplifying 500mb trough will reach the area by Friday. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms is north of the forecast area, over MD, PA, and other parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, closer to the primary surface low. However, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms, nor redevelopment of showers/storms in the Piedmont late Friday, as some CAMs are indicating. Gusty winds will be a bigger impact to the local are, from Friday afternoon, peaking during the overnight hours, and then tapering off by mid Saturday afternoon. Could see stronger gusts linger across the higher peaks of the Blue Ridge into Saturday evening. There will be a significant cool down behind this front, the approaching airmass of Canadian origin will bring temperatures near to below freezing, especially in the mountains. NBM probabilities for temperatures below 32 deg F Sunday morning are above 90% for the typical cold spots, like Burkes Garden and Mount Rogers VA, and western Greenbrier County WV, with 45% to 65% elsewhere in the mountains. From Friday to Saturday, could see a 15 to 20 degrees swing in high temperatures. Dry weather and moderating temperatures will dominate the rest of the week as high pressure moves over the region once again. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... With a warm front draped across the region, there is a mixture of VFR to LIFR restrictions at local terminals this evening. These restrictions look to linger through the overnight period, with vicinity showers continuing through at least the 06-09 UTC timeframe for BLF and LWB. Overnight, cigs will continue to drop and IFR/LIFR appears likely through at least 12z/8AM before lower clouds and fog begin to mix out for most terminals. BLF may be the exception given it will remain within southwest flow. Southwest flow looks to increase through the mid morning and early afternoon hours before a cold front looks to approach and push into the region late towards the end of the TAF period. BLF and LWB look to transition to westerly/northwesterly winds by the 21-00 UTC timeframe. Winds at all terminals look to increase to 10-15 knots sustainedafter 18 UTC, with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. These winds look to continue through the end of the TAF period. With the frontal passage, some showers and thunderstorms may occur at BLF and LWB; however, confidence is not high enough to include thunder at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning, look for an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and gusty conditions at the surface. These stronger winds should gradually veer north and decrease through the day Saturday. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected into Sunday and Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...BMG/EB  805 FXUS62 KMHX 160007 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 807 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Above average uncertainty in the development of a coastal low offshore this weekend as a frontal system pushes through the area late Friday night into early Saturday. Gale Watch is in effect from Saturday Morning through late Saturday night for most of the coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 2) Cold front moves through early Saturday, forming a low pressure system offshore. 3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Gale Watch in effect along with prolonged large seas this weekend into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of northeasterly swell and increasing chances of low pressure development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A dry back door front is taking its time moving into nrn parts of ENC later today keeping most locations in the warm sector today with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps for extreme northern locales. The front quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. KEY MESSAGE 2... Uncertainty remains above average in regards to a coastal low forming along the cold front which will pass through the area late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While there are still three main camps as far as solutions go, confidence is trending up that a coastal low will form. The location and strength of that low remains in some question. Once the low forms out over the gulf stream there are three main steering paths that models are hinting at right now. The most likely scenario at this time is that the low forms and stays over the gulf stream picking up strengths as it does so but remains in a fairly constant longitudinal range offshore. Most EPS ensemble members and some deterministic models such as the ICON, CMC and others fall into this camp but there is still considerable spread in the location and intensity details. Other members along with the EC-AIFS model develop the low right along the coast and hold it there for a much more prolonged event. This scenario would likely have the highest impacts to coastal areas of eastern NC with several days of strong winds and high waves. Finally, the GFS and its ensemble members remain an outlier in either not developing a low at all or developing it much later and much further east than any of the other scenarios. This remains the least likely to occur at this time. Regardless of which scenario plays out, there is HIGH confidence of marine impacts, and potential for waves 7+ ft reaching portions of the OBX. Winds advisory potential exists for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX with the sustained NE flow. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate tohigh over the next 24 hours. A weakening cold front will continue to slide slowly southwest through ENC this evening, potentially reaching as far as KOAJ before stalling. Increasing southerly flow will then force it to move back north overnight into early Friday morning. Behind the front, an area of MVFR CIGs has developed and this is expected to impact KPGV and KISO, but may also reach as far as KEWN and KMRH. CIGs will quickly improve once the front moves back north, but guidance differs on how quickly this transition will occur. Once the front is to the north of any TAF site, then VFR conditions should prevail. The one caveat through early Friday morning is the potential for reduced VIS in BR. Due to the uncertainties with the evolution of the front, it's unclear where winds will be the lightest and where low-level moisture will be the highest, as the areas with that overlap will probably have the greatest risk of sub-VFR VIS. On Friday, southerly winds will become gusty at times, with gusts to 20kt likely. Outlook (Sat through Mon): Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show continuing SW winds 5-10 knots gusting 15-20 kts at most locales with seas mainly 2-3 ft. Backdoor front has made it through the Albemarle and into the Croatan/Roanoke Sounds. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat, at which point it is likely to form a low pressure system offshore. Gale Watch is in effect beginning 12z Saturday for all waters except the southern rivers, although SCAs will be likely in these areas as well. Probabilities indicate high confidence in Gale Force Winds but likely not achieving storm force. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-10+ ft appearing more likely through the weekend. Duration of gale force gusts is uncertain at this point and will likely bounce above and below the threshold well into next week, and there is potential for 6+ seas to linger as well. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-180-182-184-186-188-230- 231. && $$ DISCUSSION...RTE/RJ AVIATION...RM/RJ MARINE...RTE/RJ  676 FXUS65 KPUB 160004 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 604 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hard Freeze for San Luis Valley tonight with Freeze/Frost conditions for the southeast plains tonight and again Friday night. - Warmer and drier into early next week, with another storm system moving across the Rockies through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to strong north to northwest flow aloft in place across the Rockies, with yesterday's parting system lifting out across the Northern High Plains at this time. Satellite imagery indicates mid level moisture embedded within the flow spreading south across the region, with regional radars indicating a few showers spreading across northeastern Colorado into the Palmer Dvd and northern portions of the southeast plains at this time. As advertised, gusty northerly gradient winds of 25 to 45 mph have developed across much of eastern Colorado, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s at this time, save for 30s at the peak. For the rest of today into tonight, gradient flow slowly relaxes as the Northern High Plains upper level system continues to translate north and east, allowing for a cool surface high pressure system to continue to build south and west across the Central High Plains. With a dry and cool airmass building south across the region, will see clearing skies and temperatures cooling overnight across the plains, with current Freeze Warnings for El Paso and Kiowa counties and frost advisories across the rest of the plains remaining in place overnight. Further west, we issued another Freeze Warning for the San Luis Valley, as central portions of the valley did see temperatures in the mid 20s this morning, temperatures closer to higher terrain did not see a hard freeze, owning to another warning, with lows expected in teens and 20s across the higher terrain tonight. Weakening northwest flow aloft continues across the region tomorrow with upper level ridging building into Western Colorado through the day on Friday. With only slight warming from the west, temperatures will be around to slightly warmer than today, with mainly 50s once again across the plains, and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain under mostly clear skies. With the cool and dry air in place, we are still expecting the end of the growing season with sub-freezing temperatures across southeast Colorado Friday night into Saturday morning, with Freeze Watches in place. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Warmer and drier conditions remain in the offing for the weekend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds into the region. Latest model data does indicate some moisture embedded within said westerly flow bringing chances for showers across the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd by Sunday and into Monday. Southwest flow aloft then increases through the middle of next week, as another system digs into the Great Basin, leading to increasing chances of precipitation to areas along and west of the ContDvd through the middle of of the week. Models continue to differ on the timing and strength of said system lifting out across the Rockies through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Very low risk (10 percent) of some patchy ground fog along the Arkansas River/Rio Grande toward sunrise, but won't include in the tafs at this point. Gusty north winds at KPUB and KCOS will diminish by 02z, with light winds overnight and through the day on Fri at all sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ069>071-084-085-095-096. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ083-086>089- 093-094-097>099. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ083>089-093>099. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PETERSEN  628 FXZS60 NSTU 160021 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 121 PM SST Thu Oct 15 2026 .Short term... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...Satellite shows low level clouds passing over Tutuila, Manu'a and Rose island spiraling towards Tropical Disturbance 01F. TD01F is about 590 miles northeast of Tutuila and is expected to slowly moving southeast. These low level moisture will continue to hold scattered to numerous passing showers over the islands except for Swains. A weak trough will develop near Savaii and Upolu on Saturday will later increase showers on Sunday. Breezy trades will persist tonight before shifting south on Friday. South flow will remains through Saturday night as the Tropical Depression 01F moves farther southeast. .Long term... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...With the trough extending over the territory, winds will diminish to gentle flow and showers will increase to numerous through Sunday night. As the trough moves up north, showers will again decrease to scattered. Winds will increase to breezy flow on Monday before shifting southeast on Tuesday. High pressure to the far southeast will hold breezy trades through the weekend. && .Marine... Rough seas of 8 to 10 feet will slightly elevate 9 to 12 feet tonight as Tropical Disturbance 01F to the far northeast continues to intensify. As TD01F moves southeast and farther away from the territory, seas will again subside 7 to 9 feet on Friday night. These rough conditions will persist through the weekend and into the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory remains in effect Small Craft Advisory remains in effect Flash Flood Watch remains in effect && $$  854 FXUS62 KRAH 160047 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 840 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No appreciable changes were made with the afternoon forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 227 PM Thursday... 1) Near-record heat will continue through Friday. 2) A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 227 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near-record heat will continue through Friday. While a front across Virginia has dipped into north-eastern North Carolina, temperatures have still climbed into the 80s near the VA/NC border, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere across the area. As of 1pm, all three climate sites are within 5 degrees of their respective daily record highs, and records could be tied or surpassed over the next couple of hours. The front should retreat back into Virginia overnight, allowing for uniform low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A strong southwest wind on Friday will result in gusts between 20-30 mph, and will give one more chance to reach record highs between 85 and 90 degrees. While clouds will slowly increase during the afternoon, it appears that any rain should hold off until after sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will sweep across central NC Fri evening, with a significant cooldown for the weekend. There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. A strong cold frontal passage will bring a drastic pattern-shift this weekend and bring the greatest impact to the sensible weather, especially Fri night into Sat. This front will be driven by a deep surface low < 1000 mb racing across the Northeast Fri evening and equally, if not more so, anomalous surface high pressure exceeding 1035 mb diving into the southern Plains and elongating up into the Mid-MS Valley Sat afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to support a high-PoP/low-QPF signal as anafrontal showers/sprinkles appears likely, especially across the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain where strong FGEN through the lower/mid-lvls overlaps intense H5 height falls (> 100m falls in 12hrs) and DPVA. This pattern will also support the development of an narrow cold- frontal rainband (NCFR), which could result in a period of enhanced winds and wind gusts along and immediately behind the NCFR with rapid pressures rises in its wake. Momentum transfer at the top of the mixed layer in point soundings suggest gusts may reach in excess of 40 mph with the NCFR passage. NWP guidance continues to flip-flop on whether the basal portion of the strong mid/upper level trough will pinch off and become a closed/cutoff low and its proximity to the Carolina coast. AIGFS deterministic runs line up with the AIFS ensemble solutions and favor a farther south and east development of the closed/cutoff low between the Southeast coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda (physics-based guidance favor its development immediately along the Carolina coast), which would favor less rain chances and cooler overnight and early morning lows Sun through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 840 PM Thursday... An area of MVFR stratus with CIGS of around 1.5kft continues to build southwest into NC from southeastern VA and northeastern NC. These low clouds will continue to spread across the northern/central Coastal Plain and the northeast Piedmont tonight. They will reach the KRWI terminal by 02Z and threaten the KRDU terminal between 05 and 07Z. The low clouds shouldn't make it into the Sandhills or the western Piedmont and the KGSO/KINT/KFAY terminals should stay VFR overnight and on Friday. The stratus should wane toward and after daybreak as the front lifts north and diurnal mixing commences with VFR conditions area wide by mid morning and continuing into the afternoon. A line of showers and associated VSBY and CIG restrictions may move into the Triad from the northwest at the end of the TAF period. Winds generally be light from the northeast to southeast overnight at 5kts or less. Winds will quickly increase on Friday morning and veer around to the southwest at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 16 to 22kts. Outlook: A cold front will trigger a broken and narrow line of showers and possibly some post frontal light rain that will move east across central NC on Friday evening and into the overnight hours with the potential for some VSBY and CIG restrictions, especially across northern areas. Behind the front winds will shift to northwesterly at 10 to 20 kts with some gusts up to 30 kts on Saturday. Gusty north winds are possible on Sunday before diminishing on Monday. There is a limited potential for a coastal low pressure area to develop early next week which could extend the period of gusty north winds and possibly bring some clouds/rain to eastern areas although the probabilities with this scenario are limited. -Blaes && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/AS AVIATION...Blaes