329 FXUS62 KMLB 152300 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise into Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front this weekend and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current-Friday... A moisture gradient exists across east central Florida this afternoon with the deepest moisture (PWATs 1.5"+) identified from Cape Canaveral and the Orlando metro southward. This area of deeper moisture will favor the best rain chances southward today (20-40%) while areas north of Orlando remain dry. The moisture boundary lifts northward into tomorrow as a broad area of high pressure moves eastward and low-level flow gradually veers south to southwest. Rounds of isolated coastal showers are forecast along the Treasure Coast tonight, expanding northward along much of the coast late tomorrow morning. Increasing coverage of scattered to locally numerous showers and a few storms spreads inland through tomorrow afternoon with steering flow pushing back any activity towards the coast in the evening. Warm and humid conditions are expected tomorrow with above normal high temperatures around 90 degrees and peak index values near 100 degrees. Saturday-Wednesday... A cold front passes central Florida on Saturday as a large area of high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. The cold front will then stall and linger south of the local area next week. A tightening pressure gradient will set the stage for a period of windy conditions and numerous coastal hazards. On Saturday, gusty northeast winds begin to spread southward across the region behind the front, and Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of the coast. Winds continue to strengthen Sunday, and sustained winds increase to 15-25 mph more areawide (locally higher along the coast). Moderate confidence (40-50% probabilities) exists in wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Sunday, and Wind Advisories will be likely to expand to include most inland locations. Some uncertainty exists within the synoptic pattern through the remainder of the extended forecast period as models suggest low pressure attempting to develop over portions of the western Atlantic. For now, a tight pressure gradient is forecast to persist, keeping breezy to windy conditions potentially into mid next week, especially along the coast. With a prolonged period of increased onshore flow, hazardous coastal conditions are expected. Rough surf, large breaking waves, and a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will be present at all area beaches. Entering the water is highly discouraged! Long period onshore swells will contribute to beach erosion, and Moderate beach erosion is likely, through multiple high tide cycles. Deep moisture persists areawide early Saturday before a drier airmass begins to filter southward behind the front. Greatest rain chances Saturday are forecast south of Orlando and the Cape (50-70%) with earlier advection of drier air keeping isolated to scattered coverage across northern areas. Deeper moisture may linger in vicinity of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county into early next week as the front stalls. This should keep the greatest chances for scattered to locally numerous showers and a few storms across the south, but moist onshore flow should still allow for rounds of onshore moving showers along much of the coast and through the I-95 corridor into next week. Persistent bands of showers and any storms could lead to locally heavy to excessive rainfall, producing flooding issues, mostly across the Treasure Coast. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) exists across this portion of east central Florida this weekend. A cooler airmass spreads east central Florida this weekend with highs ranging the the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Some gradual warming is then forecast through the middle of next week, but temperatures mostly in the 80s remain near to below normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current-Friday (modified previous)...Favorable boating conditions persist through Friday. High pressure north of the area shifts east through late week, as a cold front moves into the Southeast United States. This will allow onshore winds to continue but weaken, with easterly winds up to 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots tomorrow. Seas will remain around 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the waters as will a few storms, mainly south of the Cape through tonight. Coverage of this activity increases across the entire coastal waters into Friday. Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are then forecast to rapidly develop behind a passing front into the weekend. N/NE winds increase to 20-30 knots across the waters Saturday and then strengthen to around 25-30 knots across the entire waters on Sunday, with frequent gusts to gale force likely. Winds of this intensity are then expected to continue through early next week keeping dangerous boating conditions in place. These stronger winds will quickly build seas up to 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially south of the Cape. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light, isolated onshore-moving showers are anticipated to continue across the Treasure Coast terminals overnight, with a mention of VCSH from VRB southward. Mostly dry elsewhere, with light ESE winds at the terminals overnight. Friday, winds become more variable across the interior while the ECSB causes winds to remain out of the ESE. Increasing chances for VCSH and VCTS at the coastal terminals after 17Z, expanding towards the interior terminals after 18Z. Still too early to determine the need for TEMPOs or PROB30s, but this will continue to be closely assessed. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the evening hours as showers and storms push offshore tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 87 72 79 / 10 40 20 30 MCO 73 91 74 81 / 0 60 40 40 MLB 76 87 73 83 / 10 60 50 70 VRB 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70 LEE 73 90 73 78 / 0 50 20 30 SFB 73 90 73 80 / 10 50 30 30 ORL 73 90 74 81 / 0 60 40 30 FPR 75 88 72 85 / 30 60 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Tollefsen  466 FXUS63 KGLD 152301 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 501 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado. - Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible. - Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current mid-level water vapor imagery and analysis show a deep, positively tilted trough accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Tri-State area. Clouds have been slow to clear this morning, but have started to clear in areas in the early afternoon. Chances for light showers throughout the area continue until around sunset. If and when the clouds clear for the area will determine the severity of the wind threat for today. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. As of 12pm MDT, portions of eastern Colorado have reported wind gusts around 40 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds. For tonight, a Freeze Warning has been issued for our Colorado counties. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Cheyenne, Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 80% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20- 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west. Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 35 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning. A warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper- level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low teens for the western county warning area (CWA). Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 40s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to low 40s for the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday. Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer. Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively. As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 500 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts with gusts around 25- 35 through the TAF period. Winds are likely to begin to decrease around 22-23Z to around 10 kts and remaining from the north. Beginning 04Z, expect low level wind shear to develop and last until around 11Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.Freeze Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Holdren  499 FXUS64 KOUN 152302 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 602 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Widespread showers with precipitation band slowly shifting southeast. Areas of heavy rainfall possible.. - Cooler air filtering into area behind a cold front today/tonight. Cool weather expected through the weekend. - Warming trend again next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread showers continue from the southwest portion of the forecast area through central and north central Oklahoma. The precipitation rates are currently not as high as we have experienced earlier with this system, but the heavy rain already received with this system keeps flooding potential in play. There has been an axis of 8 to 11 inches of rain from near the Beckham- Greer County line east-northeast through Washita, southeastern Custer, Canadian, southern Kingfisher and western Oklahoma Counties, and a major flood wave is moving down the Canadian River. Will keep the Flood Watch going, but will likely be able to remove counties from northwest to southeast as drier low-level air spreads into the area and the precipitation axis shifts slowly southeast. For areas roughly southeast of an Archer City-Ardmore- Ada line, precipitation amounts have been lighter (including a 0.00" at the Durant mesonet station so far), so flooding potential is not as high in the southeast. Precipitation will likely move out of the forecast area before sunrise Friday morning. The front will move through the entire area this evening bringing the cooler air through the area. With such widespread rain over the last couple of days, would be concerned about fog potential, but the breezy post-frontal conditions, advection of drier air, and lingering cloud cover will likely prevent significant fog development. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The short term will be dominated by high pressure building into the area. By Saturday morning, a 1035+ mb high is forecast to be sitting over Oklahoma with the ridge axis shifting slowly southeast. With this, cool and dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday. Forecast temperatures across northern and western Oklahoma are in the low to mid 30s on Saturday morning. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issues a Freeze Watch for Harper and Ellis Counties where freezing temperatures are most likely, but other areas of northern and western Oklahoma will at least have the potential of freezing temperatures in low-lying and sheltered areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Colder temperatures will continue through the weekend, despite winds returning to southerly by Sunday. A warming trend will continue through the middle parts of the week, as mid-level heights increase. Dry conditions are also expected through the middle of the week as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings will gradually rise to VFR overnight as cold front sweeps through the area bringing in drier air in the lower levels. Some shower activity will linger into the evening along and east of I-44 with rain still possible after midnight at DUA. Behind the front, gusty north winds will occur and linger through the day Friday. These stronger surface winds should minimize the llws risk overnight, so have removed mention at most sites, exception being PNC/SWO. High clouds will linger through the morning hours Friday before shifting south during the afternoon. Could see some afternoon cu mainly along and east of I-35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Oklahoma City OK 46 58 39 59 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 47 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 50 61 39 61 / 60 0 0 0 Gage OK 42 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 44 58 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 53 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009. Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-022>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...30  558 FXUS64 KAMA 152303 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Windy conditions continue this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 50 mph in the northwestern Panhandles. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to dip below freezing for many portions of the combined Panhandles. A Freeze Watch has been issued to account for counties most likely to meet or fall below 32 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper level, cutoff low in Colorado continues its progression eastward as it becomes ingested in the main upper level trough. Winds at the surface have flipped from the north and strong, northerly flow will continue across the southern High Plains until high pressure settles in Saturday morning. Today, the last of the precipitation from our rain event is moving through Collingsworth county and will eventually transition fully into western Oklahoma. Though additional rain has fallen in those areas this morning, no flood products are anticipated due to rain rates being too steady for any further impacts. Surface winds are expected to be stronger today than Friday. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely in the northwest combined Panhandles, while gusts between 35- 45 mph are more likely for the rest of the Panhandles. Temperatures today should only reach the 60s, but a few locations in the southeast TX Panhandle may reach 70 degrees. Tomorrow, strong winds continue with gusts up to 40 mph possible. As cold air becomes reinforced across the area, morning lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. A few locations in Cimarron and Dallam county even have a low chance to reach 32 degrees by Friday morning. By the afternoon, temperatures should cap out in the 50s while sky coverage remains partly cloudy to mostly sunny. With temperatures on the downtrend and wind speeds staying high in the morning, a wind chill will be present across the CWA. Friday morning apparent temperatures may feel as cold as the mid 20s in the north, while temperatures will feel as cold as the 30s for the rest of the Texas Panhandle. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Confidence continues to increase for freezing temperatures Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issues for areas that have at least a 50% chances for temperatures 32 degrees or below. Temperatures may be as low as the mid 20s in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle. Winds will become much lighter on Saturday with the arrival of our upper level high. Highs Saturday onward will steadily increase and we approach the new week. 80 degree temperatures are currently expected to return by the midweek. Low temperatures should be the coldest on Saturday as well, and lows will eventually recover back into the 50s next week. We are watching the development of a new upper level system that could impact us by Wednesday and Thursday next week. PoPs return for that time frame, but changes are still expected as more details about the incoming system are realized. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and are expected to remain as such through the TAF period. Northerly winds will continue throughout the TAF period, staying breezy all night and picking back up in the morning. Wind gust speeds are expected to lower overnight, but are also expected pick up in the morning. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning forTXZ001>014-016>018-317. OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52  552 FXUS65 KFGZ 152303 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 403 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Strong easterly gradients across the southwestern United States will continue through late Friday. Wind speeds by late this morning had exceeded all guidance in a few places, enough to assume that this will continue for awhile. So, we issued a Wind Advisory for our western zones for now. There is also indication that a band of stronger winds will develop over southern Navajo and Apache counties later tonight and more zones may need to be added. By the start of the weekend, the easterlies will subside as a weak upper low off the Baja Peninsula gets picked up by an amplifying eastern Pacific trough. This will, once again, pick up some tropical moisture and slowly introduce shower chances back to our area. By early next week, a strong trough will move into the remnant moisture and provide several days of showers and thunderstorms, possibly even through the end of the week. If this sounds familiar, it is, because we just did it last week. Will this be a repeat? Maybe, stay tuned and find out! && .AVIATION...Friday 16/00Z through Saturday 17/00Z...VFR conditions expected. North through east winds forecast through the period, generally between 10-25 kts, with localized gusty winds near 40 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/00Z through Monday 19/00Z...Winds will remain elevated out of the east through 10Z Saturday, before becoming light/variable through the end of the period. VFR conditions expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Expect cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast to east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through Friday afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along and southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish for Friday night, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 20-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Sunday through Tuesday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, chances increasing and spreading to most of Northern AZ on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ004- 006>008-015-037-038. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  679 FXUS63 KTOP 152306 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 606 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Winds increase and temperatures trend colder behind today's cold front. -A Freeze Watch has been issued Friday night with increasing confidence in freezing temps for a portion of the area. -Temperatures warm late this weekend and early next week with rain chances back in the forecast later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, a cold front is moving through eastern KS ahead of a lead trough axis aloft. Northwest winds will increase behind the front as CAA brings in a cooler and drier air mass from the north. Temperatures are likely to drop this afternoon given the strong CAA pattern. Hi-res models then show an increase in northwest winds for a brief period late this evening along a secondary boundary ahead of a stronger trough axis moving in from the Northern Plains. Temperatures fall into the low 40s tonight with gusty winds and clearing skies. A stratus cloud deck then looks to move back over the area tomorrow from the northeast. Continued CAA with the approach of a surface ridge axis and low cloud cover will make for a chilly day with highs only reaching the low to mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. The downward trend in temperatures continues into Saturday morning as a nearly 1040 mb ridge axis settles right overhead. Confidence has been increasing in temperatres falling to near freezing for a good portion of the area with models agreeing on the favorable setup. Thus, in coordination with neighboring offices, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the northwestern half of the forecast area Friday night and early Saturday morning. The rest of the area will likely see headlines as well with area-wide frost looking likely. From there, a gradual warming trend is expected as the ridge quickly moves east, bringing southerly flow back across the region. High temperatures Saturday afternoon should approach 60 degrees, then trend about five degrees warmer each afternoon into the start of next week. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS shifts to a broad area of southwest flow aloft from the southwestern US into the Midwest early in the workweek. Long range deterministic models show periodic shortwaves riding through the flow, however, limited forcing and moisture availability should keep POPs low through Tuesday, then slightly higher probabilities midweek as moisture increases. Rain and storm chances continue to increase later in the week with models in fairly good agreement showing a deeper trough axis approaching the area from the west. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs will improve to VFR status over the first few hours of the TAF as a secondary cold front moves through the terminals and reinforces gusty north/northwesterly winds overnight. Gusts should persist overnight and see a slight increase by the mid-morning Friday as the BL mixes a bit deeper. Some VFR stratus should accompany gusty conditions, especially at KTOP and KFOE Cannot not rule out some cloud decks getting into high-end MVFR status for a few hours mid-day Friday but kept conditions Friday as VFR as better confidence was higher in VFR CIGs. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Griesemer  669 FXUS64 KEPZ 152306 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 506 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front moves in this evening, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico for Thursday night into Friday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers starting Monday and continuing through next Thursday as temperatures rebound. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The north wind doth blow this early afternoon as an upper-level low moves across the Rockies. But once the sun nears the horizon, the winds will shift east and increase drastically, for a backdoor cold front of formidable strength will reach our area early this evening. The backdoor cold front stems from a combination of the upper-level low splitting into two this afternoon, with the second circulation moving southwest towards Arizona, and a strong surface high in the northern Rockies filling the void the upper-level low has left, bringing a surge of cooler air into our region tonight. 3 The cold front boundary shall reach the El Paso/Las Cruces metro areas this evening. With this cold front is a tight pressure gradient and a low level jet that will bring sustained east- northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph for most of the region. Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are expected for Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties tonight and into tomorrow, particularly along the west slopes of the mountains. High Wind Warnings are in effect for these counties, as well as southern Hidalgo and Grant Counties, through tomorrow night. The rest of the county warning area is under a Wind Advisory, with gusts up to 50 mph, through tomorrow night. Blowing dust is likely with these strong winds in El Paso and Hudspeth Counties in Texas, and southern Dona Ana and Luna Counties in New Mexico, beginning late this evening. The playas in Hidalgo County is also expected to see blowing dust on Friday. Temperatures for the region will plunge to at least 20 degrees below normal tonight thanks to the cold air advection associated with the cold front. Friday and Saturday will be a struggle for daytime high temperatures to reach the lower 60s in the lowlands. Freezing temperatures are expected for the mountains both on Friday and Saturday morning. It is likely we shall not have snow or even rain in the mountains, for a surge in moisture in previous model runs has shifted south. Rain is not expected to be a factor for our region this weekend. Once the winds die down Sunday, temperatures will begin their steady climb back to seasonal normals. The cutoff low will be in the Baja by this point and weakened enough to be folded into a passing ridge, bringing subtropical moisture into the region as early as Sunday afternoon. The Animas Mountains in the New Mexico bootheel will see a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon, and a greater chance of rain showers across the region is expected to start Monday afternoon. A new Pacific trough will help facilitate shower chances across the region early next week, though how much rain the region will get through next Thursday remains to be seen. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Backdoor cold front arrives early in period, increasing winds around 3z. Gusts up to 40kts overnight from NE, excluding KLRU which looks to be in a pocket of lighter winds. Dust models are picking up on BLDU for KELP tonight, most likely from 3-6z. Low chance of VIS dropping to 1SM at KELP, but confidence is low. BLDU chances are low at best for theother terminals tonight. LLWS can be seen also overnight. Winds lighten a bit during the day and shift more E. Mainly SKC throughout. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low end breezy winds from the north will define this early afternoon. Min RHs in the lowlands are in the mid-to-upper teens and in the upper-20s-to-low-30's across the mountains. A drastic change is afoot this evening as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, shifting winds eastward and dropping temperatures to at least 20 degrees below average. Sustained wind speeds tonight and into tomorrow will range from 25-35 mph are wide, with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph along the west slopes of the mountains. Min RHs Friday and Saturday will continue to be in the mid-to-upper teens in the lowlands, and fall to the 20s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually warm up and winds will die down on Sunday, with a chance for rain early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 58 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 65 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 41 23 46 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 67 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 65 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 64 48 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 56 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 52 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 58 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 64 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 64 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 71 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 63 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 64 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 64 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 59 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory until noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson  583 FXUS64 KSJT 152304 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances continue to bring increased rain chances, along with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the area through Friday. This airmass brings ample moisture and precipitable water values to the area today, making for very efficient rain-producing storms. The heavy rainfall from these systems bring the threat of Flash Flooding to much of West Central Texas today through early Friday morning, mainly across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and northeastern portions of the Heartland. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through early Friday morning for these areas, and there is a decent chance that Flash Flood Advisories and Warnings will be issued this afternoon through this evening when the heavy rainfall starts impacting areas across West Central Texas. With that said, please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned to our forecast for updated information on this event. Much of West Central Texas is outlooked today by WPC in a Moderate to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with the Northern Edwards Plateau being the focus of the Moderate Risk area through tonight. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches possible. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected this afternoon through Friday. Northerly winds from 15 to 30 mph are expected, with higher gusts as high as 45 mph are possible overnight tonight through Friday. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for 1 AM to 7 PM Friday for all of West Central Texas for these gusty winds. As for the temperatures, expect overnight lows tonight to fall into the 50s, and highs on Friday to struggle surpassing the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper-level trough that has helped cause the active weather across west central Texas today will start to shift eastward Friday evening into Saturday, leaving behind shortwave ridging across Texas. Cold overnight low temperatures and cooler afternoon highs will remain in the wake of the cold front tracking through the region tonight. A much cooler and more stable airmass will settle in across the region for the weekend. Overnight lows Friday night under generally clear skies and light to slightly breezy winds can allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions early Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning. As a result, low temperatures both mornings could be quite cool as they look to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Apparent temperatures can drop into the low 30s to low 40s, which brings us close to freezing in some low- lying areas. This would be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since mid-April! The strong area of high pressure will move eastward by Sunday afternoon and allow for southerly flow at the surface while an upper-level shortwave passes to the north. High temperatures should climb back into the 70s on Sunday and Monday and into the 80s on Tuesday. The upper-level pattern could become more active for the middle part of next week as global models are in fairly good agreement of an upper-level low digging into southern California by Tuesday night. This would place much of west Texas under southwest flow aloft, similar to what occurred earlier this week. Differences in timing and moisture amounts still exist on this feature so for now, low (20-30%) chances for rain are in the forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 53 60 42 61 / 100 0 0 0 San Angelo 54 61 40 61 / 100 10 0 0 Junction 56 63 41 63 / 90 10 0 0 Brownwood 54 62 42 63 / 80 10 0 0 Sweetwater 51 58 40 60 / 90 0 0 0 Ozona 53 59 40 59 / 100 20 0 0 Brady 54 61 41 61 / 90 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...20  037 FXUS62 KJAX 152310 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 710 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Fog Again Tonight/Friday Morning - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Marine & Coastal Hazards Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Late Tonight Surface high pressure ridge will weaken over the area through Tonight. Fog is expected to develop again Tonight, and may become locally dense. Temperatures will remain above average. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening -Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas. - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast A cold front pushes into the area from the northwest Friday evening, shifting south of the area by Saturday morning. High pressure will then begin to build north of the area behind the cold front passage. Southwesterly winds will be in place Friday ahead of the approaching frontal, bringing warm temperatures across inland locations with daytime highs reaching into the the mid to upper 80s, while a weak east coast breeze will keep coastal locations a bit cooler in the low to mid 80s. An influx of moisture from the south/southeast could bring the development of some scattered showers along north central FL locations, where PWATs are expected around 1.8" to 1.9" range. By the overnight hours temperatures will be in the lower 60s across SE GA and the mid to upper 60s along inland NE FL, with mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast. The building high pressure north of the area will result in strong north/northeast winds to develop over the local waters and towards coastal locations on Saturday. Winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of around 35 mph will be possible beginning Saturday afternoon, and persisting through the overnight hours into Sunday, with coastal showers also likely. After the passage of the cold front, cooler temperatures will bring daytime highs will range in the 70s, with warmer temperatures by the coast and north central FL. Overnight Lows will be in the lower 50s to mid 60s, warmer temperatures again over north central FL and coastal locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday High pressure over the north and then the northeast of the area will continue to bring strong winds through the end of the weekend into the upcoming week across the local waters and coastal locations, with chances of showers also persisting for these locations. Winds continue to be expected around the mid 20 mph range, with gusts possibly in the 35 to 40 mph along the coast and offshore waters, with winds beginning to decrease heading into midweek. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken. Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Patchy to areas of fog are expected to develop again Tonight, with restrictions expected. This fog will lift after sunrsie, with a trend to VFR starting mid morning. A few thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon over north central FL, which may reach KSGJ later in the afternoon. The chance is too low for a KSGJ storm to include more than a VCTS at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken as it shifts east northeast of the area Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with potential for Gale force winds late Saturday into Monday. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible late tonight and early Friday morning hours. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 87 62 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 86 67 74 / 0 0 0 30 JAX 66 89 68 74 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 70 88 70 76 / 0 20 20 20 GNV 67 89 69 76 / 0 10 20 10 OCF 69 89 70 76 / 0 20 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  410 FXUS64 KTSA 152315 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening. - Gusty north winds behind a cold front tonight and Friday, with limited fire weather concerns across far southeast OK. - Much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The overall threat of additional heavy rainfall has diminished this morning, though periods of mainly light to moderate rain will continue through this evening. Flood Watch will expire at 18z. Additional showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northwest TX, and should expand more northeast with time as cold front moves into northeast OK later this afternoon and through the remainder of the local area this evening. The net effect will be for a gradual shift southeastward of the main axis of rainfall with time, with amounts gradually decreasing as the current tropical connection is ultimately pinched off. As a result the farther southeast you go, the less likelihood of significant rainfall, with far southeast OK seeing notably lighter rainfall amounts compared to the rest of the area. In addition the cold front will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass with gusty north winds, providing the first real taste of fall weather. Current data suggests wind gusts will be close to advisory levels, though mainly in the 30-35 mph range both tonight and much of Friday. Some traditionally windier locations will probably see a few gusts right around 40, but at this point do not anticipate widespread or prolonged gusts in that range. The winds will raise some degree of fire weather concerns Friday, especially in some of high terrain of far southeast OK where more persistent gusts likely, along with the decreased likelihood of wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind speeds will eventually die down Friday evening with mostly clear skies. This will result in significantly colder overnight lows, potentially not far from freezing in some locations near the OK/KS border (20-30% probability of 32 or lower). Patchy frost could develop in sheltered areas, so tender vegetation may need some protection both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures will return more to normal levels by early next week then gradually rise above normal through mid-week with dry conditions. Next weather system will approach from the west, possibly by the end of next week or the weekend with rain chances returning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front is making its way southward through the area, bringing a period of MVFR ceilings and a dramatic increase in wind speeds and gusts from the north to northwest following its passage. The front has passed through BVO/TUL/RVS and should reach MLC by 01Z, XNA/ROG/FYV by 02Z and FSM by 04Z. Light rain is occurring with the frontal passage, with minor visibility reductions expected for a few hours. Ceilings should improve overnight at each site as the front pulls away. However, wraparound moisture should lead to additional lower cloud development for the NE OK and NW AR terminals, most likely at VFR heights but some potential for another round of MVFR ceilings. Winds will begin to decrease some at the NE OK sites 21-22Z, although remain gusty through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 59 39 60 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 53 64 44 67 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 50 62 42 64 / 50 0 0 0BVO 42 58 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 44 59 36 63 / 40 0 0 0 BYV 46 58 40 62 / 40 0 0 0 MKO 48 60 40 62 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 45 56 36 59 / 30 0 0 0 F10 48 59 39 61 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 54 64 44 66 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...22  767 FXUS63 KARX 152322 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 622 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues the entire area for much of the today with rainfall totals of around 0.5 to 1.5". No impacts are expected from this rainfall. - Breezy northwest winds with a good (40-70%) chance for spotty showers on Friday morning and afternoon. There is potential (40-60%) for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west of the Mississippi River. - Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is very likely (70- 100%), particularly north of Interstate 94, where values may dip below 28. A Freeze Watch is now in effect across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain continues into this evening As expected, rain is ongoing across the region early this afternoon ahead of a southern stream wave currently moving over NE/KS. Rain amounts have been light, generally around less than 0.5" over the past 6 hours. Expect these rain rates to continue through the evening so some spots could get up to 1.5", including morning rain, but most will end up with 0.5-1" as their final totals. Breezy with spotty showers for Friday Friday, after the southern stream wave phases with the northern stream trough currently over Lake Winnipeg, surface low to our east will deepen considerably and temperatures aloft in our area cool rapidly. A strong surface gradient will be present with pressure rises near 2 mb/hr and a northerly 30-40 knot 850mb jet will move over the area. The end result will be breezy conditions with potential (40-60% per 15.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust, particularly west of the Mississippi valley, just a bit too low of confidence for issuance of a Wind Advisory this afternoon. As for rain, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep low level lapse rates with moist conditions within much of the boundary layer. This should result in spotty open cellular convection across the forecast area but, with shallow updrafts ending below the -10C level, am not expecting thunder. Downdrafts look to augment the risk for gusts at the surface due to the aforementioned 35-40 knot winds present at 850mb. Freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning Post frontal surface high builds into KS Friday night with this surface ridge extending northeast into WI. Clear skies and light winds should lead to temperatures tumbling rapidly after sunset. Guidance probabilities point strongly to an areawide freeze (at least 40/70/70% percent in 15.12z REFS/LREF/NBM). Since the locally defined growing season is nearly over but still ongoing, the event is within 48 hours, and confidence is at least 50%, the criteria for a Freeze Watch has clearly been reached so have issued one for the entire CWA. For areas north of I-94, a killing freeze with temps below 28 may (30-70%, highest in Taylor County) occur as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ongoing low clouds and precipitation will keep flight conditions at MVFR to IFR for most of this TAF cycle. The light rain showers will come to an end at the sites in the next few hours but then another round of scattered showers will move in from the north starting around 08-09z. That second round of showers should dissipate by 15z. The low clouds should remain in place through at least 18z, but will more than likely linger until 20-21z. Thereafter, the clouds should lift and a return to VFR conditions is anticipated. The wind will continue to become northwesterly to northerly at all of the sites and will increase through tomorrow morning. Sustained winds could reach as high as 20-25 kts with gusts upto 35 kts. The strongest winds are expected to be from roughly 12-18z. The winds will start to slow down towards the end of this TAF cycle. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ferguson AVIATION...Muscha  329 FXUS64 KLIX 152314 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 614 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will move through late tomorrow, bringing cooler and much drier conditions along with very strong northerly winds. This will lead to multiple impacts. - First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for all of southwestern MS and portions of southeast LA for Saturday but if the front speeds up anymore a Red Flag Warning may be needed for far northwestern portions of the CWA for Friday afternoon and early evening. - Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the coastal waters beginning tomorrow evening through Saturday evening. Marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal waters into the new work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 BLUF - FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING and a Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for the northwestern half of the CWA. The cold front will quickly move through tomorrow and behind it much drier and cooler air will quickly build in behind it. This front is going to likely be dry so little to any rain is expected over the area. For all fire weather concerns please refer to Fire Weather Section below. The other impact from this front and will be a welcome one is the much cooler temps. Models and especially the NBm really struggle with the early season fronts and how much mixing we will see. It appears that the Model guidance both MOS and raw is catching up and shows rather dry conditions overnight tomorrow night through Saturday night. The other part that the NBM tends to struggle with is overnight lows in these situations, especially the second night low. Guidance continues to trend cooler and cooler for Sunday morning and even has gotten quite cool for Friday ngiht/Saturday morning. Unless the CAA is much stronger that what is currently being advertised by the models I think some of the guidance is being a little overzealous with the cool down tomorrow night. it will still be rather cool with lows in the 50s maybe the outside chance of the far northwest dropping into the upper 40s. As for Saturday night almost everything is set for the coldest night of the season. In fact guidance continues to trend down with all of the main MOS products showing some location's dropping into the lower 40s. The biggest question with Saturday night is wind. The models still show winds staying up at h925 and h850 all night with h925 winds possibly up to 25 kts all night across the eastern half of the CWA. Even if the sfc winds are able to drop and even decouple, low level winds of this magnitude will still promote some mixing. With that I have used a mix of the MOS guidance and NBM for lows Sunday morning which shows lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The very pleasant conditions this weekend will quickly depart however it will still feel more like fall going into next week. Medium range models overall are in general agreement with the pattern over our area and the biggest thing is...expect the lack of rain to continue and the temperatures to slowly climb. No adjustments from the NBM in the long term. The disturbance that brings our front tomorrow and the northwest flow behind it quickly breaks down before we even get into the new work week. Ridging already over TX and the western Gulf quickly builds in Monday and it will just dominate the region well into next week. High pressure at the sfc will quickly shift to the northeast however we will still be dominated by high pressure as a large anti-cyclone over south-central Canada south of the Hudson Bay and it will wedge all the way into the Lower MS Valley and even over the TX coast. This is going to keep us dry with no rain in the forecast however we won't see dewpoints recover greatly and thus overnight lows should still be fairly comfortable. On the other hand the LL temps will begin to moderate and we will likely be back in the mid 80s over much of the area by Tuesday. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions this evening will likely give way to lower VIS/CIGs Friday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. For now IFR or perhaps LIFR cannot be ruled out especially terminals along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Conditions will clear by mid to late morning then eyes will focus on winds increasing out of the north behind the front toward the end of the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The last bit of benign marine conditions will occur tonight but by tomorrow afternoon/evening conditions will become extremely impactful. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Gale conditions are possible across all of the coastal waters and with that we have issued a Gale Watch beginning tomorrow night and continuing through Saturday evening. Some locations like the tidal lakes and near shore waters will likely be able to come down to a Small Craft Advisory Saturday at some point but strong winds will persist into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and slack off some but there is a good chance that headline may be needed into the beginning to the new work week. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ068>071. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RDF MARINE...CAB  530 FXUS61 KPHI 152318 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 718 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warm front will move north through the region tonight, followed by a strong cold front that will pose the threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. 2. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A warm front will move north through the region tonight, followed by a strong cold front that will pose the threat of severe weather on Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure developing over the Midwest this afternoon will lift northeast into the Great Lakes tonight and into southern Quebec on Friday. As the system lifts north, a warm front will lift north through the region overnight. As forcing for ascent increases along with increasing moisture advection, occasional showers and periods of rain are anticipated to develop and spread into the area after midnight. Cannot rule out some embedded thunder overnight as well, as there is some elevated instability present in forecast soundings. Showers and some patchy fog will continue through about daybreak, before the warm front lifts clear of the area by late morning. There should then be a lull in activity through early afternoon. Once the region is in the warm sector, expect a few hours of mostly sunny conditions on Friday under warm and moist southwest flow. Forecast highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across much of eastern PA and NJ with highs possibly topping out in the mid 80s across the Delmarva. Dew points will also rise into the mid to upper 60s in the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, focus will be to the west as a strong cold front trails to the west. Convection by this time should already be ongoing across portions of NY and western PA tracking east toward the area. Forecast guidance currently depicts a narrow corridor of instability where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg over western areas. While instability is meager at best, strong background wind fields aloft will be coincided with bulk shear values in excess of 50 kt along the immediate front. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has increased wind probabilities across the entire forecast area, now being placed into a Slight risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather on Friday. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts given the overall set-up, however cannot entirely rule out a brief spin-up as well. Timing appears to around 4-6 PM for western areas, 6-8 PM around the I-95 corridor, and 8-10 PM for coastal areas and across the Delmarva. With diurnal heating ceasing this time of year much earlier than in peak summer, it is expected that the squall line will be losing steam in intensity as it progresses further east. Showers and storms will clear the area from west to east later Friday evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. The trough axis shifts east away from the region and high pressure builds in at the surface for Saturday Night. This will result in some of the coldest air of the season to date settling in over the entire area. Skies will clear out by sunset on Saturday, with winds gradually diminishing through the night. The elevated winds, especially south and east of the I-95 corridor, will prevent temperatures from bottoming out completely though. So, while we will have decent radiational cooling conditions, it won't be perfectly ideal. Ended up lowering temperatures a few degrees under the NBM though. As a result, low temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Poconos and northwestern NJ. Freezing temperatures could extend down through the I-78 corridor though, with the current forecast for Reading/Allentown having lows around 33 to 34. Rural areas even across southeastern PA and southern NJ cannot entirely rule out seeing their first freeze of the year either. For the rest of the area, lows in the mid 30 to upper 30s are expected, with 40s along the coast. Elevated winds and a dry airmass may actually preclude frost development, especially along the I-95 corridor and points south and east. There is a scenario where we see temperatures in the mid 30s but no widespread frost given how dry the airmass will be. However, the first widespread hard freeze looks increasingly likely for the Poconos and northwestern NJ. Headlines are going to follow in subsequent forecast updates. Temperatures moderate from Sunday onward. Temperatures on Sunday Night north of Philadelphia will drop into the mid to upper 30s, but some areas may no longer need frost/freeze headlines beyond Saturday Night. After that, lows each night for most of next week should be above 40 degrees where the growing season is still active. Dry and tranquil conditions are expected with no significant weather hazards anticipated at this time for next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR through evening, with ceilings lowering to MVFR by 04-06Z and IFR by 09-11Z. Showers are likely to develop after 04Z with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm, however confidence in occurrence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Winds generally southeast for much of the night at 5-10 kt, veering to southerly late. Low-moderate confidence. Friday...IFR conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours with some lingering showers and low ceilings. Conditions will gradually improve from south to north after 16Z, giving way to VFR in the afternoon. South-southwest winds around 10-15 kt gusting up to 20-25 kt. In the late afternoon, a squall line is expected to move in from the west after 20Z. This may cause another round of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds. Moderate confidence overall. Outlook... Friday Night...Sub-VFR conditions expected early, especially from the I-95 corridor on east as scattered showers and thunderstorms move through. Conditions should lift back to VFR later in the night though. Saturday...VFR. North/northwesterly winds around 15-20 kt with gusts 20 to 30 kt. Saturday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories from Little Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island have been allowed to expire as of 3 PM. East winds around 10-20 kt this afternoon will become south- southeast overnight tonight with seas around 3-4 feet. For Friday, south-southwest winds will increase to around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt late in the day. Seas around 3-5 feet. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all Atlantic coastal waters beginning at 3 PM on Friday. Fair weather expected through tonight and into Friday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Friday afternoon into the evening. Locally gusty and erratic winds are possible at times. Outlook... Friday Night...The Gale Watch was replaced by a Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones as wind gusts should be around 20 to 30 kt. Wave heights of 4 to 5 feet expected. Saturday...The Gale Watch remains in place for Saturday for all marine zones. Wind gusts out of the north/northwest will be right around 34 kt. Seas of 4 to 7 feet. Saturday Night...The Gale Watch was extended to now include Saturday Night for the outer marine zones as lingering gusts near 34kt are possible (50% chance). Winds on the inner zones fall below 30 kts and an SCA will be needed when Gale headlines end. Sunday...Winds fall below 25 kt but seas linger near 5 feet, which could result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. Sunday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430- 431. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich  518 FXUS62 KILM 152318 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 718 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation and climate sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. Latest surface analysis shows an elongated surface high that stretches across the Gulf Coast States to offshore of the Carolinas. This surface ridge is associated with an upper- level ridge that's nearly overhead this afternoon. Widespread subsidence keeps the forecast dry through Friday. 500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology for KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland and mid 80s at the coast expected through Friday. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here. Please see Climate section below for more info. Deep upper trough nudges upper ridge off the coast on Fri with lowering heights, but warm SW flow will prevail and should help to keep very warm temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area Fri night into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Latest guidance is trending drier again with best chance of shwrs as the cold front passes through early Sat morning and mainly coastal or off the coast and then again as deep upper trough swings through near noon-time. The best energy would be to the north of our area. Deep northerly flow will develop as system shifts farther off the coast through Sat aftn. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 Fri evening will drop through Sat down into the 50s and even some 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, and the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru the 00Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Main, albeit slight, concern is for reduced vsby from mostly shallow fog late tonight. The risk for any cig restrictions is very low so did not include its mention. Extended Outlook...Northerly winds behind a cold front Friday night could gust over 30 knots into the day Saturday. Guidance suggesting low pressure will remain offshore and should keep any sub-VFR to the east away from TAF sites. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least daytime Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. Pattern starts to change late Friday, as gradient winds increase ahead of a cold front. Front moves through very early Sat morning, allowing the winds to quickly veer from SW to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front through late Fri and will peak late Saturday into Sunday, ranging from 4-8 ft over the coastal waters out to 20 nm, to 8-13 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the local waters beginning Sat morning right around daybreak. Initially expect more in the way of Small Craft Advisory conditions with building seas and increasing winds, but expect solid Gale gusts and winds by Sat aftn. Should see gusts up to 35 to 40 kts late Sat through Sun with a strong pressure gradient persisting over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 88F in 1985 *broken today - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 85F in 2008 *broken today - Florence, SC (KFLO): 89F in 2021 and 1985 *broken today - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 91F in 1919 *tied today Forecast/record highs for Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 83F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ250-252-254-256-280-284. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...RJB/RGZ MARINE...MAS/RGZ  612 FXUS65 KPSR 152320 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 420 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories in effect tonight through Saturday morning across southern Arizona and southeast California, with breezy to windy conditions expected as forecast peak wind gusts reach up to 40-55 mph. - Strong winds on Friday will likely lead to widespread lofted dust, leading to hazy conditions, and localized dust channels occasionally reducing visibility below one mile. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures the next couple days, then slightly cooler with a slight chances for rain showers this weekend. - A Pacific low pressure system moving down the coast early next week is currently forecast to bring regional rain chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures by the middle to latter portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions under clear skies continue across the area today. Synoptically a blocking pattern is developing with high pressure ridging spreading into the Northwest CONUS and a developing weak cutoff low south of it over the local area. Despite the developing cutoff low, H5 heights have risen over the last 24 hours and temperatures have warmed 5-10 degrees across southern AZ and southeast CA. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s and there is around a 60-70% chance of reaching 90 degrees in Phoenix. High temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, except for the western deserts where it will be a few degrees warmer, reaching the low 90s. Temperatures then cool down again for Saturday with an increase in clouds, possibly some light showers/virga, and cold air advection from the east. The main sensible weather impact the next few days will be the wind and perhaps a lot of lofted dust as a result. This may be one of the the strongest easterly gradient wind events of the last decade. Surface analysis at midday today showed a strong 1040-1042mb high centered over Montana, which is near record strength for this time of year. The pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the lower pressure over the local area is leading to breezy to locally windy conditions across northern AZ and across parts of southeast CA this afternoon. Wind gusts were consistently reaching 35-40 mph across these areas early this afternoon. As the strong surface high spreads further into the Plains and south along the southern Rockies, the pressure gradient will continue to increase across the local area and as a result so will the winds. A strong cold front moving south through the Plains will backdoor into southern AZ tonight/tomorrow morning. Models continue to show 850mb LLJ winds reaching 40-50 kts over south-central AZ early tomorrow morning, and even upwards of 60 kts across southeast AZ. While these winds are not expected to fully mix to the surface, the strong gradient will still lead to widespread 20-25 mph sustained and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Higher peak wind gusts up to 45-50 mph are expected, with locally up to 55 mph over mountain peaks, but the window for these stronger gusts will mostly be in the morning tomorrow and again Saturday morning. Winds this strong will surely kick up a lot of dust and create hazy conditions, and will likely lead to some dust channels developing, with reduction in visibilities to under 1 mile at times, depending on land use. Wind advisories will be in effect for this wind event, starting initially this evening across southeast CA and along the Lower Colorado River Valley with 35-45 mph northerly winds. Southwest and south-central AZ are then added to the advisory tomorrow morning. The decision was made to addthe greater Phoenix area to the advisory for a period from 8 AM - 3 PM MST. During this period, model soundings show potential for 30-35 kt (35-40 mph) to mix down to the surface. The advisory for Pinal and southern Gila counties will continue through Saturday morning, as the easterly LLJ restrengthens overnight, and portions of southwest AZ will likely be re-added the advisory for Saturday morning as well. As mentioned there will be an increase in clouds Saturday, as moisture is drawn north into the area by the weak cutoff low to the southwest. Vertical cross-sections and model soundings show this moisture will mostly be focused aloft between 700-300mb with a dry sub-cloud layer. Still, soundings suggest thick clouds with potential for light showers and virga beginning around midday and heading into the afternoon Saturday. Model guidance also shows a wing of vorticity or shortwave trough moving up from the south Saturday, with an enhancement to the upper level jet. This should provide decent ascent over southern AZ and further support at least light shower/virga activity. NBM PoPs Saturday are only around 10-20% across south-central AZ (30% east of Phoenix) and QPF is very light with NBM 75th percentile only showing 0.01" for Phoenix to 0.10" for southern Gila County. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The strong pressure gradient and resultant strong easterly winds across southern AZ will weaken heading into Sunday as the strong surface high in the Plains weakens and shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. There will still be some easterly breeziness, but nowhere near the magnitude of Friday through Saturday. The synoptic pattern will also shift, with the ridge over the Northwest CONUS sliding east through the Plains and the cutoff low will also weaken into an open wave and lift through the area Sunday-Monday, downstream of the next Fall trough digging down the West Coast. Lingering light showers are possible across portions of AZ, mainly east and southeast AZ, Sunday into the start of next week downstream of the lingering shortwave trough, but drier air is shown to move in aloft prior to the arrival of the next coastal trough. Temperatures should warm Sunday into the start of next week with the latest NBM showing highs returning back close to normal by Monday. Tuesday through the middle of next week forecast confidence decreases as model spread increases considerably. Most notably there is a lot of model disagreement on timing out when the coastal trough will move inland, how quickly, and how deep the trough will be. Typically models will trend toward the slower solutions with these coastal lows. So, something moving through late week is the current thinking. This next coastal trough will bring chances for rain, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures, but to what magnitude is still uncertain. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concerns during the TAF period will be breezy to windy conditions along with lofted dust late Friday morning into the afternoon. In the meantime, NE flow will continue into the evening and overnight hours, with sporadic gusts seen throughout this timeframe, though confidence regarding what time and which location may experience these gusts is low. Regardless, sustained speeds will remain relatively elevated compared to what is typical, and stronger winds just above the surface may result in some localized LLWS criteria. The strongest gusts during the forecast window look likely to occur Friday morning, sometime between 16-20Z, with observations nearing 30-35 kt. These strong winds will be capable of producing BLDU which, in some instances, could drop surface VIS down to MVFR levels. Whether or not dust impacts are seen at the surface, confidencein lofted dust resulting in slantwise VIS issues through much of the daylight hours is much greater. Clear skies will prevail through Friday evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Marginal breeziness will be the main aviation concern during the next 24 hours, mainly during the daylight hours. However, some sporadic gusts around 25 kt may be seen during the overnight, mainly at KBLH. NW-NE flow will be common at each terminal through Friday morning before directions take on a more NE/E direction by beyond that. FEW to perhaps SCT mid-level cloud decks will develop over the region during the back-half of the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and seasonally low humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-30% across the region through Saturday. North and northeasterly breezes up to 25-35 mph are expected through this evening in portions of southeast CA and along the lower CO River Valley, as well as in the mountains north and northeast of of Phoenix. Winds turn easterly and become stronger tonight through Saturday across southern AZ. Winds will be strongest over mountain tops during the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow and Saturday, with gusts up to 50-55 mph. Strong gusty winds will spread more to the lower deserts during the daylight hours and be strongest in the morning through early afternoon tomorrow, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. These strong easterlies and 20-25% RHs may still create locally elevated fire weather conditions midday through the afternoon tomorrow, but fuels are not the most receptive after recent rains. The easterly breezes will not be nearly as strong during the day Saturday and will trend down further into Sunday. Light showers are possible this weekend, but the chance for wetting rain is low (<10%). A Pacific trough is expected to bring regional rain chances, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547- 552-553-555-557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ531>534-536- 538-539-554-559. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ537-540>546- 548>551. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for CAZ564-565-568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Benedict  187 FXUS62 KCHS 152331 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Continued warm and dry conditions today and Friday as a ridge of high pressure slides across the region from west to east. At the surface, high pressure combined with h925 temperatures in the 20-22 deg C range will result in afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s today. This is within reach of a few record high temperatures across the region, with the individual records at our climate sites in the climate section at the bottom of AFD. Similar to the past couple mornings, patchy shallow ground fog may develop during the late overnight hours into the morning. Inland, we'll likely reach cross over temperatures with max expected dew points today in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, resulting in cross-over temperatures reached/exceeded. Along the coast, fog is a bit more uncertain as overnight lows approach cross-over temperature but don't exceed them. Probabilities for visibilities below 5 miles are in the 20 to 30% range, with probabilities for a mile dropping below 15%. After any fog mixes out, above normal temperatures build into Friday afternoon. While h925 temperatures remain in the 20-22 deg C range producing highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region, winds become gusty in the afternoon with gusts in the teens as a cold front approaches from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. Friday: A strong cold front will approach from the northwest this weekend, likely passing across the local area Friday night into early Saturday. Ahead of the front, another warm day is expected with temperatures well above normal, generally peaking in the mid- upper 80s. Temps should fall a few degrees short of record warmth. Latest guidance indicates modest moisture supply with and post fropa during overnight hours as well, but the duration suggests very little if any precip accumulation across northern areas. Post fropa, northwesterly winds develop, becoming breezy after midnight, but well short of any land-based headline criteria (gusts to 15-20 mph). The exception could be across Lake Moultrie, where mid 70s water temps promote ample mixing into 30 kt low-lvl wind fields. A Lake Wind Advisory could be needed for Lake Moultrie prior to daybreak Saturday. Saturday and Sunday: A noticeably cooler airmass will be in place as high pressure builds behind a departing cold front. Afternoon highs and overnight lows will be some 20-25 degrees colder than the previous day, struggling to reach the mid-upper 60s inland and lower 70s elsewhere Saturday afternoon, then low-mid 60s Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows should dip into mid 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the coast. Breezy north/northeasterly winds will be the main issue over the weekend, as strong cold air advection associated with building high pressure promotes mixing into enhanced low-lvl wind fields (1000mb geostrophic winds 30-40 kt). Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph will be common Saturday and Sunday for most areas, with perhaps some slight enhancement along the beaches, upwards to 30-35 mph. Conditions appear to fall short of Wind Advisory criteria, although winds could become rather gusty on bridges near the coast. The exception will remainacross Lake Moultrie where warmer lake waters promote stronger low-lvl mixing and likely support Lake Wind Advisory conditions Saturday into Sunday. On Monday, sfc high pressure should persist across the region, but start to show signs of weakening across the Southeast heading into the middle of next week. However, northerly sfc flow remains and likely slows airmass modification early to mid week, perhaps due to low pressure also attempting to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures should gradually warm mid-late week, but could remain a few degrees below normal (mid-upper 70s for highs). && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Chances for patchy shallow ground fog increase during the late overnight hours. Probabilities for visibilities below 5 miles are in the 20 to 30% range, with probabilities for a mile dropping below 15%. Models are showing the best chances for fog across inland locations and across SE GA. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, breezy north/northeasterly winds are likely at all terminals Saturday through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: No marine concerns in the near-term as surface high pressure will be moving further out into the Atlantic tonight, shifting the winds from southerly to southwesterly. Winds are expected to remain below 10 knots. Friday through Tuesday: A strong cold front will shift across local waters Friday night, leading to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions across all local waters Saturday. Strong cold air advection associated with building high pressure in wake of the front will likely support northerly winds in excess of 25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft later Saturday, supporting a period of at least Small Craft Advisory level conditions for all waters prior to further deterioration across marine areas. Gale force winds enter across local waters by Saturday night as cold air advection persists and a pinching of the pressure gradient occurs, resulting in enhanced north-northeast winds. Gale Watches/Warnings will likely be needed for all nearshore and offshore SC/GA waters Saturday evening through Monday, before improving conditions begin on Tuesday, although still likely supporting Small Craft Advisory level conditions into the middle of next week. There still remains some concern of reaching storm force wind gusts across parts of outer waters (NBM supports ~40% probability of 48 kt wind gusts), especially offshore Georgia waters during the peak of the event Sunday/Sunday night. This will continue to be monitored for a potential Storm Watch. Strong north/northeast winds will also support large seas this weekend, potentially upwards to 7-11 ft across nearshore waters (largest in GA waters) and 10-15 ft across offshore waters (largest in GA waters). Elevated seas and strong/persistent north-northeast winds likely support breakers in excess of 5 ft along the beaches, largest across GA. High Surf Advisories are likely Sunday into Monday, and possibly along the GA coast into Tuesday. Thereafter, high pressure slowly modifies with a relaxing pressure gradient, leading to subsiding seas. However, long-period swell may persist after local winds decline, supporting elevated seas into the middle of next week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 88/1925 KSAV: 90/1925 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ APT/CPM/DPB  231 FXUS63 KICT 152331 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will continue to decrease across southeast Kansas into this evening with minor localized flooding concerns. - Much cooler temperatures are forecast tonight through Sunday with frost potential likely early Saturday morning as lows drop into the lower 30s. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of central KS where lows near 30 are expected. - Warming trend expected for Monday through Thursday with storm chances returning mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, an upper trough is sliding across the northern Plains with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Upper ridging has started building into the western CONUS. At the surface, a low is over northern Missouri with a cold front draping down through southeast Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. Showers are starting to taper off in southeast Kansas with chances continuing to decrease into this evening. As we continue into tonight, colder air will move in with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on early Friday morning. For Friday, the colder airmass with falling heights/decreased thickness will settle in, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low 50s across the area. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal making this the coldest fall temperatures we have seen so far. As the upper trough and associated surface low propagate east throughout the day Friday, an increased pressure gradient will remain over eastern Kansas. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday night, shifting a surface high to over Kansas. Winds will calm significantly into Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower 30s, likely resulting in widespread frost across the area except potentially for far southeast Kansas where lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible. Lows near 30 are likely in central KS, so hoisted a Freeze Watch for this potential. Cooler conditions will persist into Saturday as expansive high pressure remains over eastern Kansas with decreased thickness. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday afternoon with lows dropping into the upper 30s on early Sunday morning. On Sunday, an upper shortwave and its associated surface low will slide across southern Canada with surface troughing extending into the central Rockies, increasing the pressure gradient across Kansas. Breezy conditions will return especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. Sustained winds are forecast between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with the strongest winds expected in central KS. High temperatures will return to the 60s on Sunday afternoon with lows in the mid 40s early Monday morning. Guidance suggests a low chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday, though confidence is low so kept mention of this out at this time. For Monday and beyond, upper ridging will continue to influence the Plains, promoting a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Highs will return to the 70s with readings near 80 on both Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for showers and storms will potentially arrive mid to late next week as a deep upper trough over the western CONUS will traverse towards the Rockies on Thursday, though there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low clouds in MVFR category will gradually shift east of the region by the late evening hours. Mostly clear skies expected thereafter. Meanwhile northwest winds will remain gusty through the night then increase during the mid-morning and afternoon hours on Friday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>049. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC AVIATION...CDJ  752 FXUS65 KBOU 152321 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 521 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight. - Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds were starting to break up, and clearing will continue through the rest of the day. Cold/dry advection will continue through tonight, leading to the season's first freeze across most if not all of the plains and I-25 Corridor. That's despite a light breeze that will remain over the eastern plains. We expect overnight lows to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s across the plains, with upper 20s and lower 30s along the I-25 Corridor (warmest over the western Denver suburbs). Despite a return to full sunshine on Friday, temperatures will remain quite chilly and several degrees below normal. High temperatures will stick mostly in the mid to upper 50s over the plains. It will be cold again Friday night, with another freeze and mid to upper 20s over the low lying areas of the plains, but some warming along the downslope areas of the I-25 Corridor. This weekend will turn warm again as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Central Rockies Saturday, and then warm southwest flow occurs on the back side of the ridge Sunday. Highs should mostly reach the 70s across the plains. In the mountains, we can't rule out a weak shower or two Sunday afternoon as a touch of mid level moisture returns. Southwest flow strengthens through the middle of next week as a deep trough of low pressure moves down the Pacific Coast. That keeps us in a warmer than normal pattern, but a chance of showers will return mostly for the high country. We are watching the arrival of the next storm system for the latter portions of the week, when the West Coast trough pushes east across the Rockies. Ensemble systems overall keep the highest probabilities (50-70%) of 1" or more of liquid equivalent from the northern mountains into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and remain relatively light over the I-25 Corridor and plains. However, there are a few outliers that bear watching as the trough does have an opportunity to become negatively tilted. It's just that for now the majority of the ensembles support the storm track and heavier precipitation swath staying just staying just to our north. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/... Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will be in place thru the period. Winds have already decreased at all sites from the north. Winds will gradually become light and variable by 02z. A secondary front will move across the area around 06z with a NNE wind shift. Winds will be in the 10-14 mph for a few hours behind it. Winds will gradually become light and variable again by 10z and then transition to light SSW at DIA by 13z with light south winds at APA. By 16z, winds will become light easterly and continue thru the aftn at all three sites. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...RPK  780 FXUS61 KALY 152323 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has introduced a slight risk for severe weather across far southern zones tomorrow afternoon, although several limiting factors remain in play that may prevent much severe weather from occurring. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring gusty winds, showers, and a few thunderstorms to the region for Friday. Continued gusty and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A coating of snow is possible in the high terrain Friday night. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:45 PM EDT...Sfc high pressure remains centered just northwest of the region. With large-scale subsidence and low-level dry advection, morning clouds have diminished with mainly clear skies across the region this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the 50s to low 60s. With clear skies and relatively calm winds, temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, especially for northern/northeastern areas. However, increasing mid and high clouds overnight will cause temps to level out and eventually rise the second half of the night. Lows will mainly occur before midnight, and will be in the upper 30s to 40s. Tonight, a strengthening sfc low will track into the Great Lakes, and eventually towards the St Lawrence Valley tomorrow. This will lift a warm front northwards late tonight into tomorrow morning. Fairly strong warm advection/isentropic lift and a band of mid-level FGEN at the leading edge of a strengthening LLJ will allow for widespread showers to break out across the region the second half of tonight into tomorrow morning. With some elevated instability across our area, isolated to scattered embedded non-severe thunderstorms are also expected with these showers. PWATs increase to 1.5-1.75", so some moderate to briefly heavier periods of rain may be possible, making for a wet Friday AM commute. The LLJ strengthens to 50-60 kt early tomorrow morning, and while we will not mix deep enough for gusts that strong to make it down to the surface, winds gusts increase as the LLJ moves overhead. Maximum gusts look to be on the order of 30-40 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 45 mph possible along the west facing slopes of the Taconics/southern Greens and around the Capital District due to flow channeling. These winds could knock down a few large limbs or trees, but are not expected to be strong enough or widespread enough to warrant advisory issuance. By mid-morning, showers will be lingering for northern areas, but a break in shower activity is expected for areas from around the Capital District south and east. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal here, with some low 70s possible thanks to 850 mb temps of +14 to +16C. It will remain breezy in the warm sector, although the core of the LLJ moves off to our north and east before any breaks of sun/deeper mixing occur. Then, tomorrow afternoon and evening, the system's cold front tracks through the region as the sfc low tracks off to our north and east. Strong CVA and the right entrance of a jet streak to our north will provide forcing for ascent, leading to a line of showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon ahead of the cold front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe slightly further north and introduced a slight risk for portions of southern Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties, although confidence remains low whether we will see much (if any) severe weather in our CWA. Limiting factors include: SBCAPE looks quite limited, with only 100 to possibly 250 J/kg, and will be confined mainly to the southeastern Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley. Additionally, there is a weak low-level cap seen in forecast soundings that will lead to the presence of some SBCIN. While a few breaks of sun are possible, much of the area in question will likely see fairly extensive cloud cover tomorrow as well that will limit the amount of destabilization. Low-level convergence at the front does not look quite as impressive in our area as for areas further to the south, as we will see a more gradual wind shift to the W/SW and eventually W/NW. Finally, any convection does not look to arrive in our area until ~4 PM, at which point we will already be starting to lose daytime heating. Low and mid-level wind fields remain impressive, so this is not to say we won't have gusty winds with this line of showers/storms tomorrow. However, confidence in these stronger winds aloft being able to mix down to the sfc and reach severe levels remains quite low. The front moves off to our east early Friday night, with a much cooler airmass infiltrating the region in its wake. Showers come to and end for most of the region early Friday night, but lingering upslope/lake enhanced showers changing to snow showers are expected in the ADKs, southern Greens, and northern Catskills. By the time rain comes to an end, most areas will see a half inch to an inch of rain, with some locally higher amounts possible north of I-90. Given quick storm motions and long duration of the rain, no hydro issues expected. A coating to half inch of snow will be possible for the ADKs. Winds also remain gusty of out the W/NW Friday night through Saturday with deeper mixing in the cold advection regime and a tight pressure gradient across the region. Due to the very progressive nature of this system, winds don't look quite as strong as they did a couple days ago. Gusts could reach 30 to possibly 40 mph and will likely remain below advisory criteria. Winds diminish fairly quickly Saturday night after sunset with high pressure building in at the sfc. Saturday will be the coolest day of the fall so far with highs only in the 30s (terrain) to 40s (valleys). KEY MESSAGE 2...Saturday night looks quite chilly with lows mainly in the 20s to low 30s. While the growing season has ended region-wide, will still mention that frost will be possible. High pressure is expected to remain in control of our weather through at least the middle of next week with zonal flow to weak, transient ridging aloft. While SUnday remain below normal (highs in the 40s to 50s), temperatures through the first half of the week moderate to near normal with quiet, tranquil weather expected. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06z Friday as high pressure over eastern New England tracks east off the coast. Conditions will then deteriorate to MVFR as a warm front quickly approaches from the west bringing some showers. A few downpours may occur early to mid Friday morning, so will continue mention of PROB30 for possible IFR conditions. Mainly IFR conditions are expected through much of Friday, although KPOU may improve to MVFR by late afternoon. A line of downpours along a cold front is anticipated to move through sometime between 20z-24z Friday. Will mention PROB30 for IFR conditions associated with +SHRA at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but due to some instability will mention +TSRA at KPOU. Will refine timing in subsequent TAF issuances. Will continue to mention low level wind shear at all sites starting early Friday morning, as a southerly jet of 40-45 kt at 2000 ft AGL moves overhead with sustained surface winds generally less than 15 kt. The LLWS should dissipate Friday afternoon. Surface winds will initially be variable less than 5 kt, becoming south-southeat and graduallyincreasing to 8-15 kt late tonight, with gusts of 20-30 kt developing at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...07  335 FXUS63 KLSX 152334 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will bring blustery northwest winds an a sharp cooldown overnight. Below average temperatures are expected through Saturday, with morning frost increasingly likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. - A steady warmup is expected Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The focus of the short term period continues to be on the potential for showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon, followed by the passage of a fall-like cold front this evening and overnight. The latter will bring blustery northwest winds and a sharp cooldown, and it will feel a lot more like you'd expect for mid-October (or even later). As of early afternoon, a surface low was located across north- central Missouri, with a warm front extending east-southeastward into southwest Illinois, and a sharp cold front approaching the Kansas City metro area. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough was also noted across east-central and southeast Missouri, with locally enhanced surface convergence along it. This pre-frontal trough has been the focus for convection through the morning, and as of this writing weak and largely elevated thunderstorms have moved across the Mississippi River and into southwest Illinois. Ahead of these storms and the pre-frontal trough, deeper moisture, slightly enhanced instability (~1000J/kg MLCAPE), and backed (albeit weak) surface winds have developed. While cloud cover is still abundant, there has been at least some clearing, and this environment appears to be the most favorable area for strengthening storms over the next few hours. Wind shear is a bit weaker here than further west, where stronger mid/upper level flow exists, but there is just enough to support a low-topped supercell and a brief tornado or two, mostly likely before 3 PM as most of this activity should move east of the area by then. Overall though, confidence is not high that storms will become severe until after they exit the area. West of the pre-frontal trough, while bulk wind shear is a bit higher, veered surface winds and meager instability (in spite of more ample clearing), and a lack of redevelopment in high-resolution model guidance do not strongly suggest that more storms are likely upstream any later in the afternoon. While we likely will see some warm air advection showers, and also a few showers along the advancing cold front, but the probability of strong or severe storms in this area is low. Late this evening, the previously mentioned cold front will surge through the region, bringing strong cold air advection and blustery surface winds. While we don't expect Advisory-level wind speeds, gusts to 30-35 mph will be well within reason, particularly during the day tomorrow as mixing increases. Meanwhile, temperatures will drop quickly, with morning lows dipping into the 40s in most areas before warming only slightly into the 50s during the day thanks to the persistent cold air advection. After reaching the 90s just two days ago, temperatures Friday will be approximately 15 degrees below average. Brisk winds will persist through the day, and weaken in the evening and overnight, allowing for efficient cooling and low temperatures dropping into the low 40s to mid 30s Saturday morning. A few protected river valleys may even flirt with the freezing mark as well, especially in northeast Missouri and the Ozarks, and it's increasingly likely that these wind-protected areas will see some frost Saturday morning. In fact, NBM probabilities for minimum temperatures of 32 degrees or less increase to nearly 50% in northeast Missouri, and chances are likely similar in Ozark river valleys where small-scale cool air drainage contribute additional cooling. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 From Saturday onward, a slow, steady warming trend is expected to develop as an upper level ridge moves overhead, and south- southwesterly low level flow becomes re-established. Surface high pressure and a dry-continental airmass should also keep precipitation chances minimal. After a very chilly morning Saturday, temperatures are likely to rebound only into the low 60s, with a slight increase from the day before thanks largely to clear skies. Overnight, another very chilly night is expected, as surface winds will remain very light and radiative cooling is expected to be quite efficient. Current deterministic forecasts suggest that morning lows in the mid to upper 30s should be common area-wide, with another opportunity for a brief freeze in Ozark river valleys in particular thanks to cool-air drainage. Sunday morning should be the last opportunity for a freeze, although some patchy frost will be in play again Monday morning. From Sunday afternoon onward, southerly low level flow becomes firmly established, and temperatures will steadily warm each day through mid-week. Temperatures are expected to climb back to near average by Sunday afternoon, with high confidence (90+%) in above average temperatures Tuesday onward, and a reasonable chance to exceed 80 degrees (40-60%) Wednesday onward. Meanwhile, little additional precipitation is expected for the next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front is sweeping eastward and will pass through KCOU/KJEF/KUIN over the next hour or so, followed by the metro terminals 03-04 UTC. Behind the front, ceilings quickly drop to around 1500 feet AGL, with gusty northwest winds. Scattered showers are possible near the front, but there should not be much in the way in terms of visibility restriction. There should be a break in the MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Friday morning before more widespread stratus/stratocumulus moves in from the northwest on Friday. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...Gosselin  856 FXUS65 KCYS 152325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread hard freeze is expected across both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Precipitation is tapering off across the area early this afternoon as the system continues to push eastward. With clouds clearing, visible satellite is revealing snowfall in the mountains as well as around the Arlington area and in the Laramie Valley. Temperatures outside of the mountains in these areas will reach the low 40s this afternoon, so some melting is likely. For the eastern half of the forecast area, gusty winds continue. Observations show 30 to 50 MPH wind gusts along the Interstate 25 corridor and eastward into the Nebraska panhandle. Despite temperatures here being in the 40s and 50s, the strong north winds are making for a chilly day. Winds will gradually weaken later this evening, but the cold will remain. Models have clouds clearing out overnight, with winds becoming calm across southeast Wyoming. With clear skies and calm winds, effective radiational cooling will take place, especially in areas with snow cover. Freeze Warnings are already in place for southeast Wyoming. Lows are expected to drop into the 20 to 25 degree range, with the potential for a few isolated teens in valleys, snow covered, or sheltered locations. It is worth mentioning that these conditions could produce some areas of patchy fog. The Nebraska panhandle was upgraded to a Freeze Warning with this forecast package. Despite the breezier conditions, a reinforcing shot of cold air from a Canadian trough will graze the Nebraska panhandle, dropping temperatures below 30 degrees. It is worth mentioning that many models were likely not capturing the cooling effectively, so nudged overnight lows towards the NBM 25th percentile. Looking at a pretty quiet day on Friday as upper-level ridging begins to build over the Rockies. It'll start out cold and frosty, but temperatures will gradually warm up throughout the day as warmer air aloft is ushered in. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees below average, with temperatures generally in the 50s across the forecast area. Areas with snow cover could be cooler, namely the Laramie Valley. Even though temperatures will be on the seasonably cool side, ample sunshine throughout the day will help cut through some of the chill. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward overnight on Friday, mid- level winds will become more westerly. The westerly winds will pose a possible concern for high winds in the typical southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and Bordeaux during the day Saturday. MSLP gradients will steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. CAG to CPR 850 mb gradients also reach the 50 meter range, signaling the potential for gradient driven marginal high winds in the wind prones. 700 mb winds will reach about 40 kts, but subsidence is rather weak and will likely not play a huge role in the winds Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH will be likely during the day Saturday and into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The system that impacted the region overnight and early this morning pushed off to the east and drying continues; therefore, VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. As mentioned earlier, drying commences and thus clouds plaguing most of the sites currently will lift and clear over the next several hours, becoming SKC overnight. Breezy northerly winds will continue for a few more hours with widespread gusts up to 40 knots and then wind down through this evening, becoming variable to less than 10 knots overnight through Friday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  817 FXUS61 KAKQ 152324 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 724 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 00z/16 TAFs. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Bay, sound, and all ocean zones Saturday-Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning. 2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont. 3) A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly cloudy overnight, then record to near record warmth and breezy Friday with gusty showers possible along the front Friday night into Saturday morning. The latest WX analysis indicates ~1023mb sfc high pressure centered from southern New England to the northern mid-Atlantic region, with a sfc cold front becoming nearly stationary across eastern NC. A few light showers are ongoing over the northern portions of the FA, but rainfall has been very light. Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-64, with 70s to the south (and a few lower 80s from south central VA to Bertie Co. NC). It continues to be breezy along the coast, with gusts to 25-30 mph, while NE winds inland are generally 10 mph or less. Some light rain or drizzle may linger into tonight, mainly for the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. As the front starts to lift back to the north overnight, could see some areas of fog develop inland and over the eastern shore, but most guidance suggests this will be primarily low stratus. Low temps range from the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. The front is expected to accelerate northward Friday morning in response to strong low pressure moving NE from the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley (and sfc high pressure well offshore by that timeframe). This will allow for a return to unseasonable warmth (almost as warm as Wed), with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90F which is 15 or more degrees above normal. Have included a Climate section below as record highs may be challenged. The amplified upper level pattern supports a dry day area-wide with the cold front lagging back until Friday night/early Saturday. It also appears to be ana-frontal (with precip along and behind the front). Hi-res guidance still depicts the potential for thin strongly- forced line of convection along the front Friday evening/early Saturday, but the overnight timing and little stability should keep the SVR threat rather low. With that said, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible as the front comes through. SPC has mostly maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across the the N and NE portions of the area for strong to severe wind gusts. There will be little if any thunder with these showers despite the potential for strong wind gusts. For the day Saturday, the models are into a bit better agreement with the timing, showing the upper level shortwave hanging back to the west and not really crossing the local area until 18Z or later. Will have likely to categorical PoPs lingering through late morning/early afternoon across the eastern portions of the FA, with drying from W to E. Temperatures will be sharply cooler, in the 50s or 60s falling into the 50s. With winds gusting to 30-35 mph, it will feel quite chilly and be quite a change. Will maintain some low chc PoPs in the SE through late aftn/early evening as the shortwave interacts with lingering moisture. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the piedmont. Strong NW flow aloft in the wake for the shortwave will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the sfc high forecast to be 1035mb+ , decided to undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dew pts, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Farther east, stayed near NBM values, as NE low level flow should keep lows much milder, with lows ranging through the 40s (to around 50F at the immediate coast). Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 3...A lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or possibly retrograding back towards the local area. Most of the latest 12Z model suite has trended more amplified into next week, with an upper low developing along or not too far off the SE US coast. The ECMWF remains the most bullish with this pattern, and the GFS is generally the farthest offshore, but all of the models have some degree of this setup. The NBM is mostly dry, but is probably being too slow to react to the latest model runs. While the forecast for Mon-Wed in mainly dry currently, would anticipate seeing at least chc PoPs return to the forecast for at least the eastern sections of the CWA. High temperatures will be a little below normal, but seasonable. Breezy conditions are likely along the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Thursday... A cold front sitting south of the area has allowed for generally MVFR CIGs across the area this afternoon/evening (with the exception of SBY, which over the last few hours has seen VFR conditions). A few light showers in the northern half of the area are possible behind the front over the next couple of hours as well. Expect CIGs to decrease overnight to IFR to LIFR for most locations. CIGs will begin to decrease to IFR ~06-08z for most, with LIFR possible for most between ~10-13z. Additionally, reduced VSBY is possible across the majority of the area from ~08-13z. Rapid improvements are likely after 14z, with VFR conditions returning for the majority of the day ahead of the next cold front. Friday afternoon, winds will increase out of the NW ahead of the front, with gusts to 20 kt possible. Outlook: Deteriorating flight conditions return later Friday evening through Saturday evening as the stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon, especially in the east. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - NE winds diminish into tonight before the cold front to the south of the area returns north as a warm front. - SW winds will increase to small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening before a strong cold front pushes through the area Friday night. - Gale force conditions (especially in gusts) are expected starting Saturday morning and continuing into Sunday (Sunday night across the southern Coastal waters). A gale watch is now in effect for the waters outside of the rivers. NE winds have been slowly subsiding this afternoon as the weak high over Quebec moves east. Due to the 5 ft seas over the southern coastal waters, will need to maintain a SCA through 7pm over that area. However, the remainder of the SCAs will likely be able to be dropped at 4pm. NE winds will generally be less than 15 KT tonight. The cold front currently over NC willquickly move north Friday morning allowing winds to shift to the SW and increase as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes moves northeast to northern New England by Friday evening. The associated cold front will then pass through the waters Friday evening into Friday night. SW winds are expected to be near or at SCA conditions by Friday evening. Then, immediately behind the front the winds will turn NW. As frequently occurs, there could be a brief surge of wind behind the front. However the strongest winds will develop late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the winds turn northerly and the strong high builds over the Ohio Valley. Expect N-NE winds to gust to above gale force Saturday and continue into Sunday. As such, a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the waters outside of the rivers on Saturday into Sunday. However, by Saturday night, the models diverge greatly on the evolution of the winds into next week. The ECMWF suggest that an area of low pressure will develop southeast of Hatteras by Sunday allowing for strong N-NE winds to continue into Monday and perhaps beyond. Meanwhile the GFS and the NAM suggest that a low will not develop along the front, and gradually diminish the winds from north to south on Sunday into Sunday night. Not a huge amount of support of the ECMWF with the other deterministic models, and as such will continue to trend toward the GFS solution at this time with gradually decreasing wind from north to south Sunday Night into Mon morning. However, it also must be noted that the ECMWF has been fairly consistent in showing a strong low off the the Carolina coast into early next week as the system becomes cut off from the main flow aloft. If the ECMWF scenario does occur, there will be an extended period of strong NE winds into the middle of next week which will likely prolong the gale force winds. Another note, the NBM does suggest winds will increase to gale force gusts Saturday night in the lower James. This is a little early and there is some uncertainty in this scenario as the winds would need to turn NE. However, it is possible that a gale watch will need to be introduced into the lower James as some point. Seas decrease to 2 to 4 feet tonight over the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft in the bay. However, seas rapidly build on Saturday with 8 to 11 ft seas in the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft in the Bay by Saturday night. && .CLIMATE... - Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16: - RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ656-658-686-688. && $$ DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR AVIATION...KMC MARINE...AC/MRD CLIMATE...LKB  846 FXUS63 KMPX 152325 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds tonight, with gusts to 45 mph possible in western and southern MN. - Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area. - Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain, with increased fire weather concerns returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rainfall moving across the area is pretty much coming in as forecast, with a broad deformation band of rain to the northwest of a surface low that is near the IA/MO/IL border this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are on track to come in in the 0.75" to 1" range from down around Albert Lea up toward Chippewa Falls/Eau Claire, around 0.5" in the Twin Cities, down to around 0.1" by the time you get to St. Cloud. This rain shield will clear the Eau Claire area between 10pm and midnight, to be replaced by a tight pressure gradient and strong low level CAA. This will allow the winds to kick up, with wind gusts up over 40 mph expected west of I-35 from roughly midnight to noon on Friday before they start to slowly settle down in the afternoon. Besides the winds, forcing from the northern stream shortwave, combined with instability from the differential CAA, will result in a batch of showers moving south through MN around midnight (as seen with the HRRR). After that, it's looking like this may be the last chance for rain we have for the next 7+ days. Friday, high pressure will come out of the Rockies and sink southeast toward the southern Plains. The ridge axis will be centered over the MPX area between 00z and 06z Saturday (7pm Friday to 1am Saturday) and will already be off to our southeast by Saturday morning. This leads to some uncertainty with lows Saturday morning, especially over western and central MN, where return flow and southwest winds will start blowing during the night, with lows likely being achieved near midnight, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the rest of the night. Still, NBM probability for a low of 32 or less is basically 100% northeast of I- 94 and 50-75% southwest of I-94 (for the core of the Twin Cities metro, the freeze probability drops to 20% thanks to the urban heat island), so we went ahead with a Freeze Watch for the entire area Friday night/Saturday morning. Growing Season Index (GSI) values are currently up around 0.8, which indicates stressed, but still active vegetation. By Thursday next week, the GSI values are forecast to fall below 0.5, indicating that this brief cold push combined with decreasing daylight will be enough to shut down the growing season for 2026. For the rest of the forecast, it's back to ridging and dry Pacific airmasses. One thing we've seen is that models are holding this ridging pattern in place longer, with any sort of breakdown in the pattern not coming until next weekend or early the following week. It will still be cool on Saturday thanks to the cold start, but from Sunday through next week, it will be highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s as our exceptionally warm October weather returns after this brief cool down. The one thing to watch starting Saturday and continuing through next week will be the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. Right now, the day with the lowest dewpoints also has our coolest temperatures, with the warmer temperatures next week coming with higher dewpoints. This all works out to RHs remaining above critical thresholds (25%), but we'll have to keep a close eye on RHs given the potential for some breezy periods to go with thisunseasonably mild airmass. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ongoing -RA will move west to east, with another round expected from what is currently over the eastern Dakotas swinging through generally after 06-07z through around 11-12z. MVFR/IFR will continue until -RA ends, with winds increasing early in the period as gusts exceed 30kts maintaining a 330-360 direction. After -RA ends, winds will slowly begin to weaken with gusts generally waning after 20-22z still out of 330-360. Skies will scatter out as bases reach around 3kft, becoming FEW/SCT250 to SKC by the end of the period. KMSP...The main change from the 18z TAF is to modify the prevailing -RA tonight to a TEMPO group as coverage/timing will not be consistent as the 2nd round looks to be more showery than the ongoing. Winds will be a concern as gusts reach towards 35kts by 12z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...TDH  962 FXUS62 KCAE 152327 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 727 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance showing increasing potential for showers with the cold front this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Near-record warmth for one more day Friday. - 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Near-record warmth for one more day Friday. Anomalously hot temperatures continue across the forecast area for one more day tomorrow beneath an anomalously strong ridge and ahead of a strong cold front that is expected to push through the area Friday night. Near record highs are expected in the afternoon, especially given compressional heating ahead of the approaching front. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are still expected. If you enjoy the heat, Friday is going to be your last chance for Summer-like temperatures for a while. A significant cool-down is on the way, and will be very noticeable. Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. The forecast remains on track, with some notable wrenches that are increasingly appearing in guidance. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between 10p Friday and 3a Saturday. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. It is unlikely, but there is still a small cluster of ensemble guidance that is trying to cut the upper low off closer to us, which would impact our weather more than expected. The passing blow of light showers expected early Saturday morning would linger longer in this scenario and have some downstream impacts with temps. This is an unlikely scenario but does have some support in the deterministic guidance as well. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday. BUFKIT time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will need a Lake Wind Advisory and honestly are bordering on Wind Advisory criteria. If the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to us than is currently expected, we definitely will need to watch for stronger gusts. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of possible morning stratus or fog along the Coastal Plain. Clear skies and light and variable or calm winds will continue overnight. Some guidance hints at possible stratus/fog developing along the Coastal Plain impacting our typical fog- prone sites of OGB and AGS. Confidence remains limited but went ahead and added a TEMPO group for intermittent IFR vsbys between 7-12z, similar to last night. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions through the period. A strong cold front will approach the region on Friday and an increased pressure gradient will result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gustsaround 17 knots likely by afternoon. Winds will shift later Friday night from the northwest but that is expected to happen after this TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday. Although precipitation is expected to be limited, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday evening shifting to a northerly direction on Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73/PL AVIATION...ND  957 FXUS64 KBRO 152327 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple marine, beach, and wind hazards Friday into Saturday. - Peak wind gusts Friday night approach 50 mph or higher. Any wildfire that can develop would quickly become dangerous in these conditions, with erratic growth and spread. - Brief low to medium rain chances are expected Friday along the front, with greatest chances (30-50%) along the immediate coast and dry weather returning into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front arrives Friday with strong northerly winds, especially by late Friday evening. Expect a brief chance of rain with the frontal passage, then mostly dry conditions into early next week. RH levels behind the front drop to 25-45 percent across the ranchlands and along and west of US-281/I-69C in the RGV, with little to no recovery Friday night. The combination of these RH values with 20 foot winds of 15-20 mph and surface gusts to 45-55 mph will present an elevated threat of wildfire growth and erratic spread. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued and ultimately a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning will be needed. As for the winds, there remains a low (10 percent) chance of wind gusts of 55 mph or more late Friday evening into Saturday morning. Most likely winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph are expected Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued and a High Wind Warning may be needed for those peak gusts Friday night, if confidence increases. Along the coast, strong winds and the reinforcing push behind the front Friday evening will drive tidal runup and potential beach erosion at high tides through the weekend, dangerous surf, and life- threatening rip currents. A High Surf Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory, and Rip Current Statement are all in effect. A Coastal Flood Warning may be needed. As for temperatures, expect a comfortable drop into the 50s each morning with highs in the 70s over the weekend gradually warming into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through 00z Thursday....Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Late morning/early afternoon on Friday, between 16z-19z/Fri, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Upon the arrival of this cold front, winds will shift out of the north and steadily strengthen through the afternoon into the evening hours. Furthermore, clouds will increase and lower in elevation as the day wears on. While mainly VFR conditions can be expected, there could be some clouds dropping into MVFR territory. Light to moderate (stratiform) rain showers are also possible along the cold front on Friday. Have introduced Prob30 groups between 18z-22z/Fri for all of the TAF sites to acknowledge the potential for showers developing along the cold front. Southeast winds 10-15 kts with isolated gusts up to 20 kts or so will diminish this evening and trend towards light and variable to calm. During the mid to late morning hours on Friday, in response and ahead of the aforementioned cold front, winds will shift out of the north with speeds between 10-20 kts. Winds will steadily undergo strengthening as the day wears on. During the afternoon into the evening hours stiff northerly winds will increase 20-25 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts. These winds will challenge east-west oriented runways on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Southeasterly winds continue into early Friday before a strong cold front arrives with strong northerly winds through Saturday morning. The Gale Watch was replaced with a Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories may be needed after the gale force winds diminish Saturday into Sunday, with conditions improving into early next week. There remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage and a return of rain chances on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 86 62 72 / 0 30 10 0 HARLINGEN 71 84 59 73 / 0 30 0 0 MCALLEN 74 85 60 74 / 0 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 80 57 75 / 0 30 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 68 71 / 0 50 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 83 62 72 / 0 40 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250- 251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351- 354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  021 FXUS63 KOAX 152329 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds are expected overnight into Friday morning. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire CWA for late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning. - Cool and dry conditions are expected Friday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Damp and dreary conditions continue across the region this afternoon as low pressure continues to lift to the northeast, into western Iowa and Minnesota. Rainfall will gradually end from southwest to northeast through the course of the afternoon into early evening. A mid-level trough dives southeast across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa overnight with strong north winds arriving. Winds gusting to around 40-45mph will be possible overnight and into early Friday morning. Winds will gradually decrease Friday morning/afternoon as the trough continues to dive toward the Ozarks. Expect a cool but drier day with highs reaching the low to mid-50s. Friday night/Saturday brings some concerns for the potential for the first frost/freeze event of the season for our area. Clearing skies and light north winds will be favorable for temperatures taking a plunge overnight. Forecasted lows are currently expected to be in the low 30s, which prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for the CWA for Friday night/Saturday morning. One thing to watch, particularly for the southeastern portion of the area will be how quickly cloud cover moves out of the region. Current forecasted lows along the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri/Iowa borders is expected to fall to around 30 or 31 degrees. However, should cloud cover linger slightly longer than currently anticipated in this area, this could keep our temperatures slightly warmer. Those with agricultural interests will want to continue to monitor forecast trends heading into tomorrow night. A ridge over the Rockies will shift east over the weekend. Expect a gradual warming trend through early next week as warmer air moves in. Saturday highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, while Tuesday highs are currently forecasted for the low to mid-70s. After today's rainfall, dry conditions are expected to persist through mid- week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Conditions improving to mostly VFR this evening before low stratus with cigs around 2800 ft move in overnight. Northerly winds increase around 06-08Z with gusts 30-35kt likely. Occasional gusts to 40kt possible after daybreak. Winds will be weakening mid-morning through the afternoon with MVFR cigs clearing around 17-20Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...McCoy  923 FXUS65 KGJT 152346 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 546 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming to seasonable temperatures this weekend. - Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA, with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph. - Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 TODAY: The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. Additionally, today will be another day of below normal temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions to protect them. FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND: By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at the moment. Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty winds around 25 kt remain over eastern Utah. Expect the winds to decrease overnight for the remainder of the TAF period. Once again, fog is possible during the overnight and early morning hours in mountain valley sites such as KTEX, KGUC, and KHDN but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Otherwise expect clear skies and VFR conditions to prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  007 FXUS66 KOTX 152329 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 429 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry weather pattern through middle of next week. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Friday. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will occur, before lighter winds and seasonal temperatures to follow Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday night through Saturday: Upper-level ridging strengthens over the Inland Northwest Thursday night into Friday. This will keep weather dry with temperatures warming on Friday into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Changes in the pattern arrive Saturday as a quick moving cold front moves through the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will be rather limited with this front, with nearly all of the precipitation falling west of and at the Cascade crest. There is a small chance for very light rain or sprinkles across northeast Washington with the front, but amounts will be negligible. The primary hazard with this front will be the winds as the PDX-GPI pressure gradient increases to +9-13mb and 850mb winds increase to around 25 to 35 mph. This will support sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 40 mph across the lee of the Cascades, the Columbia Basin, the Spokane/CdA area and the Washington and Idaho Palouse late Saturday morning through the afternoon. The National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilities supports this south a widespread 50% or greater for wind gusts greater than 30 MPH across the aforementioned areas, with an 80% chance or greater across the Waterville Plateau and the upper Columbia Basin. A lack of precipitation in recent weeks across the Columbia Basin, patchy blowing dust will be a concern along with choppy lakes, crosswinds, and airborne Halloween decorations that are not tied down. Sunday through Wednesday: Quiet weather returns for Sunday with temperatures cooling by 3-7 degrees and much lighter winds. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to depict an upper- level trough digging along the west coast early next week, with the base digging into a closed low over California. This evolution will leave the Pacific Northwest under subtle ridging before the upper-level low gets picked back up into the main flow later in the week. Aside from low precipitation chances (10 to 15%) across the Cascade crest Monday night, shifting to the Blue Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle mountains on Tuesday, dry and cool conditions will persist through Wednesday. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure over the region will promote VFR conditions. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to predominately easterly flow with the strongest winds at KPUW 13-19z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 71 44 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 38 69 42 64 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 40 70 44 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 39 73 43 72 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville33 69 36 67 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 66 39 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 38 69 42 63 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 38 70 39 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 69 49 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 43 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  053 FXUS63 KFGF 152330 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds are expected through tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley. - Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus is present across the area this afternoon, both head of and behind the surface cold front that is moving through the region. Satellite imagery suggests extensive upstream stratus will prevail through much of tonight, save for across the Devils Lake Basin where some late-night clearing is expected. Showers are developing in southern Manitoba and north central ND in cyclonic flow, and are expected to spread south- southeast through this evening, resulting in a high PoP/low QPF scenario as the primary middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis crosses the region. In the wake of this wave, mean upper- level ridging is forecast to build into the region by this weekend and is forecast to remain in place through much of next week. Low-level warm air advection this weekend will result in above-normal temperatures beginning Saturday and continuing through the middle to latter parts of next week. The spread in ensemble guidance and NBM membership is small for most of this period, with high confidence in highs in the 60s across much of the area from Saturday through next Thursday. Guidance suggests that a weakening shortwave trough and cold front may move through late this weekend, with breezy south-southwest winds ahead of that on Saturday, and breezy northwest winds behind it on Sunday. A mainly dry forecast is also in place from Friday through the middle to late part of next week given the mean ridging, though a low to medium probability exists for flow aloft to turn southwest by the middle of next week, which may eventually predicate low rain chances by then. ...Strong Winds through Tonight... Northwest winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph this afternoon are forecast to turn northerly and increase further tonight, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, particularly in the Red River valley. Surface low pressure is centered near Lake of the Woods as of early afternoon, with a trailing cold front southwestward into west central MN. The surface low and cold front are both forecast to continue moving east-southeast across the area by late afternoon. Initial low- and midlevel cold air advection and an increasing surface pressure gradient behind the front is contributing to gusty winds in eastern North Dakota, which may approach advisory criteria from the Devils Lake Basin southward toward Valley City before 00z. However, the initial push of cold air advection is not particularly long-lived, and surface pressure rises are lacking. Both of those aspects will change after 00z when the middle- and upper-level shortwave trough axis passes eastern ND, turning deep-layer flow to a northerly direction, with a secondary and stronger surge of cold air advection concurrent with increasing deep-layer subsidence. The low-level wind fields will also increase with 45-50 kt flow in the 925 to 850 mb layer and cold-air-advection-steepened lapse rates contributing to sufficient mixing and momentum transfer through much of that layer. We also anticipate a 5-7 mb/3 hour surface pressure rise bubble moving southward through eastern ND and far western MN. This scenario is expected to yield advisory-level north-northwest winds in those areas, maximized in the Red River Valley given the orientation of the flow. Point forecast soundings at both Grand Forks and Fargo suggest momentum transfer may be sufficient for 50 kt gusts, but the depth and temporal efficiency of the mixed layer was not sufficient for us to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Having said that, there is a 30-50% chance of gusts reaching 60 mph in the Red River Valley tonight when the aforementioned ingredients align, particularly in the 02z to 07z time frame. Both time- lagged HRRR and 12z RRFS/REFS guidance support maximum gusts near 50 mph, consistent with some uncertainty in the depth of mixing. There is also around a 50% probability that advisory-level gusts extend further into west central MN, e.g., portions of Otter Tail and Grant Counties. Time-lagged HRRR guidance supports that potential, but with some uncertainty in mixing nocturnally, we have not yet added them into the Wind Advisory. Winds are forecast to rapidly diminish by Friday morning as a surface ridge axis begins to approach the area. ...Freezing Temperatures... We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential. Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A secondary stronger cold front will move through the region from north to south this evening, bringing stronger winds and lower ceilings. The most likley timing of this front is 00z-02z for our TAF sites. Ahead of the front northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots along with scattered showers and on and off MVFR cigs. Along and behind the frontal passage winds will gust up to 45 knots within the valley and up to 40 knots outside the valley, along with showers and MVFR cigs (with a low chance for IFR cigs). These conditions will last for a few hours and then cigs will improve and winds slowly diminish. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030- 039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024- 026-028-038-054. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014- 015-054. MN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...FGF AVIATION...TG  013 FXUS66 KSGX 152349 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 449 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected today through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread winds on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday as Santa Anas weaken, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday through next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday, Oct 17...Mid-level low pressure has settled into western AZ and southeastern CA, with a strong surface high pressure in the northern Intermountain West. This has resulted in moderately to locally quite strong Santa Ana winds from the northeast. Fairly widespread offshore winds are broadly gusting 15 to 30 mph even towards some of the coastal areas (especially in Orange County), with gusts towards 25 to 40 mph along the foothills into the inland valleys, including the Inland Empire. Our typically gusty canyons and mountain passes are, as per usual, winning the gust- off with peak gusts 45 to 60 mph. The strong downward motion of these winds has lead to much warmer temperatures than yesterday from the foothills to the coast. In terms of change in temperature from yesterday, temperatures this afternoon are anywhere from 5 to 20 degrees warmer in this area, with highs from 80 to just above 90 degrees. While temperatures in the valleys and coastal regions are 5 to 15 degrees above average, temperatures in the mountains and deserts are actually below average thanks to the colder air mass moving into the region. This has also lead to lower humidity, with values generally 20-25% in the valleys/non-immediate coast and localized areas around 15-20%. Surface high pressure gradually moves southward into the Great Plains tonight into Friday as the mid-level low moves southwest. This will turn offshore winds from northeast to more due easterly, which will lead to stronger and more widespread winds for the east Inland Empire and San Diego and Orange counties Friday, while winds in the San Bernardino Mtn foothills into the northern IE will weaken slightly, though remain gusty. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts 45 to 60 mph for foothills and inland valleys, while coastal areas will see gusts closer to 15 to up to about 30 mph. This will drive temperatures even warmer for Friday, especially for coastal regions. Low temperatures in this region will struggle to dip far below 70 degrees, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. This flow pattern will actually help to drag some moisture from the south/southeast into the region Friday, so unlike the typical Santa Ana pattern where stronger winds = drier conditions, humidity will actually increase slightly for Friday. This, along with recent substantial rainfall, will help temper the danger for fire weather, though conditions will be elevated to locally near critical for fire weather through Saturday. This moisture will also lead to increased cloud cover for Friday into Saturday, and even lead to the possibility of elevated storms late Friday into Saturday. The majority of precipitation will evaporate in the dry layer beneath the cloud, but there's about a 10% chance for some very light precipitation during this time period, mostly for the mountains/deserts and perhaps for far south-central/southeastern San Diego Co. There will be a little bit of elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100-300 J/kg) that could result in an isolated thunderstorm, but chances look pretty small (around 5%). Saturday, the central U.S. ridge and associated surface highweakens and shifts eastwards, and offshore winds will weaken, though they'll be breezy. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees. && .LONG TERM...Sunday, Oct 18 through Friday, Oct 23...As the high continues its eastward shuffle, winds continue to weaken late Saturday into Sunday, so while winds will be offshore Sunday morning, they will be much weaker. Winds will switch to onshore Sunday afternoon, bring additional cooling, a trend that will continue into Monday as weak low pressure hangs out in southern California. At least patchy marine layer low clouds will likely return Monday morning, resulting in patchy coastal fog. A large- scale, stronger mid- level low pressure system starts moving down from the Gulf of Alaska late Monday into Tuesday, bringing breezier onshore flow and even cooler temperatures for Tuesday, along with a chance for showers that will increase from north to south later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Global weather models already have pretty good agreement on timing of the trough, with the large majority of ensemble members agreeing on widespread rain showers. There are some location differences in the trough placement which is leading to differences in how much precipitation exactly, but at this range precipitation is looking light to locally moderate. Temperatures will continue to decrease through Wed-Thu, with highs in the 60s-70s for the coastal basin/high deserts, 40-55 for the mountains, and mid 70s in the low deserts. Breezy onshore winds are likely for Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual areas (coastal waters, mountains and desert foothills). Keep your eye on the forecast this upcoming week. Models diverge Friday into next weekend, but general agreement is in some strength of large-scale mid-level troughing continuing, so while any precip will likely taper off by late next Thursday, temperatures look to remain in the cool to average zone through next week. && .AVIATION... 160000Z...SKC and VFR through Fri. Northeast winds will remain elevated into Fri, when the strongest and most widespread winds are expected. For the mountain foothills peak gusts of 45 to 55 kt are expected. For the valleys, gusts 30 to 45 kt, locally higher near mountain foothills are likely. Coast and Coachella Valley will also see elevated winds with gusts 20 to 30 kt. There is a potential for gusts of 50 kt to occur at KONT early Fri AM, increasing around 10Z Fri. Winds Fri will weaken from north to south 18-22Z. Areas of MOD- STG up/downdrafts in lee of (south and west of) mountains along with areas of LLWS where strong winds do not surface. East winds continue into Sat. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A south swell from 190 to 200 degrees at 3 to 4 feet with a 15-17 second period will generate elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, with local sets to 7 feet. There is an increased risk of strong rip currents. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning until noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory until noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...CSP AVIATION/MARINE...Castro  099 FXUS61 KBTV 152330 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 730 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 238 PM EDT Thursday... No significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 238 PM EDT Thursday... 1. Quiet before the storm today, and then rain and gusty winds tomorrow. 2. Cool, breezy weather with some mountain snow on Saturday will turn drier for the new week. 3. The long term continues to be very quiet with temperatures at or above normal and high confidence of an extended dry period of weather likely. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: It's a beautiful fall day out there with chilly temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal. Winds are light, and the Sun is shining. Today will probably be the last day for optimal foliage, because it's going to get breezy and wet for Friday. Overnight, a warm front will approach the area. Rain chances will quickly ramp up as strong ascent from moist air overrunning stable, dry high pressure produces a solid precipitation shield northwards. After the warm front crosses, conditions will become increasingly favorable for gusty winds, particularly in the Champlain Valley. Conditions are only marginally favorable for mixing, but the orientation of the winds, and channeled flow between low pressure reaching Montreal and retreating Atlantic high pressure will favor gusty winds in and around Lake Champlain. High res guidance also seems to favor northern slopes near Enosburg and Montgomery Center in eastern Franklin, as well as East Charleston and Derby Center. Climatologically speaking, one cannot rule out areas like Malone and Ellenburg in New York either. Within the aforementioned areas, 35 to 45 mph are most likely from about 7am-1pm. Outside of these, still plenty of breezy winds 25-35 mph. Combined with the rain, this will almost certainly take away plenty of foliage, and it may be strong enough that some localized reports of large branches down and some power outages are possible. However, south winds are usually not as impactful given how common strong southerly gusts are in the Champlain Valley. By mid-afternoon, the surface low will begin to reach Montreal and then shift eastwards. The attendant cold front will push southeast. There could be some convective elements and some type of shear line that shows up on radar, but instability is marginal and any winds within precipitation will likely be lower than the ongoing synoptic scale winds. Still, between the strong warm front and some moderate rainfall rates likely in the cold front with higher PWATs around 250- 275 percent of normal, we should eke out at least 0.50", even for most terrain shadowed locations. Totals are most likely to range about 0.75-1.25", especially across higher terrain. No flood concerns are expected with the progressive nature of the feature. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasingly cool weather returns under northwest flow Friday night through the rest of the weekend. The backside of the upper trough doesn't shift southeast until later Saturday morning. So with lingering moisture, upslope showers are expected. As temperatures cool, snow levels will gradually descend as temperatures fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Some snowflakes may manage to even make it to the valley floor if there are any. Unblocked flow will generally favor most orographically enhanced showers near the summits and along their eastern slopes. Approaching noon, snow showers will taper off as moisture flows out of the region due to the unblocked flow and upper trough pulling away. Due to antecedent warmth, most accumulations will be on grassy surfaces for areas between 1000-2500 ft elevation. Above 2500 ft, snowfall amounts could approach 1-2". Temperatures aren't going to warm a whole lot Saturday as brisk northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will remain much of the day. Max temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. So as winds slacken on Saturday night, we should see most all locations fall at or below freezing, except for perhaps a handful of spots in Grand Isle, Vermont and around the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. South to southwest flow will resume on Sunday, and we will moderate closer to seasonal norms. The high pressure set up overhead will be very strong, and appears unlikely to budge anytime soon. Signals are quite good for a dry spell. KEY MESSAGE 3: Little change was noted in the 12z guidance suite, which support expanding mid/upper lvl ridge acrs most of the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. Did note a weak moisture-starved backdoor cold front on Weds, which may knock our temps back below normal, depending upon magnitude of caa. Guidance shows building 1035mb ridge from Maine to VA by early next week, while closed cyclonic circulation lingers well east of Hatteras. This high pres is replaced by another 1034mb high pres over central Canada by mid-week, helping to advect slightly cooler temps into our cwa for mid to late week. However with very dry moisture profiles only a few sprinkles acrs the trrn wl be possible. Temps mostly in the mid 50s to l/m 60s with lows upper 20s to lower 40s thru most of the extended with dry conditions prevails. Fire weather concerns will increase next week, due to the long duration of dry weather anticipated, but winds will remain mostly light and terrain driven, with high pres. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue to persist for the next several hours, with flight conditions expected after 06Z as lower ceilings and rain showers move into the region. By 12Z or so, ceilings are expected to be in the 800 to 1200 ft AGL range, with visibilities dropping between 3-5 SM for many terminals with widespread steady rainfall. Low MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the forecast period, although some slight improvement may be possible at some terminals towards the end of the TAF period. Winds will continue to be light at the start of the forecast period, but will gradually increase out of the south. Strong south winds will continue through much of tomorrow morning and afternoon, with wind gusts in excess of 25 to 35 knots especially in the Champlain Valley. LLWS will also be a major concern for aviators tomorrow, with all terminals expected to experience periods of LLWS, starting between 09Z and 12Z and continuing through much of the forecast period. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A new Lake Wind Advisory has been posted for early Friday morning as south winds increase sharply after midnight toward sunrise on Friday, especially across the central and northern portion of Lake Champlain. Light winds this evening will become south-southeast winds at 10 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots toward sunrise on Friday, with waves building 1 to 3 feet. Very gusty southerly winds are expected to continue on Friday. && .CLIMATE... Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records are indicated below at some climate sites in our region: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Haynes/Taber AVIATION...Kremer MARINE...NWS BTV CLIMATE...NWS BTV  094 FXUS63 KGRB 152330 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing, widespread rain this afternoon and evening, becoming scattered overnight into Friday. Probabilities for 1 inch or greater range from 60 to 90%. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, and a 30% probability that lake shore counties could receive gusts to 45 mph. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night as temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 20s in locations away from Lake Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Precip...Small adjustments/increases in QPF over the next 24 hours, otherwise forecast remains similar to the previous update. Moisture plume associated with sfc low/shortwave in the central Plains has been spreading northeast today and resulted in onset of widespread rain across central and northeast WI. Expect steady rain to continue this afternoon and evening, followed by rain becoming scattered overnight as two energy areas phase across the Great Lakes and move east. Lingering low-level moisture and trailing surface trough will keep widely scattered rain and drizzle in the forecast throughout Friday morning, and into the afternoon for the east. Event total rain amounts will range from approximately 0.75 to 1.10 inches, with probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of rain now ranging from 60 to 90%. Most of this will occur before 06Z/Fri, with around 0.20 inch or less after that time. Wind...As northern and southern stream lows approach from the northwest and southwest, then phase just east of WI, expect tightening pressure gradient to result in strong north to northwest winds on Friday. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast area wide. Potential for wind gusts reaching 45 mph are greatest near the lake shore, where this is a small potential for wind-related headlines. However, right now the probability of exceeding 45 mph gusts stands around 30%. See MARINE section for additional wind information. Temperatures...Cold front associated with northern stream low will usher in a cooler batch of air for a couple days. Clouds and wind will keep temps in the mid 30s and 40s tonight, but clearing skies and lights winds on Friday night will allow readings to fall below freezing in most locations. Probabilities range from 40 to 80% for a hard freeze, lows of 28 degrees or cooler, away from the lake shore counties. Therefore, a Freeze Watch was issued for all counties where the growing season continues, aside from Door County. Temperatures quickly start to rebound on Sunday with highs back in the 60s for several days. Next week...High pressure will result in low impact weather into at least the middle of next week, with temperatures AOA normal, little to no precip chances until at least Thursday, and light winds. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Expect IFR cigs to persist through at least 06Z, though brief improvements to MVFR will be possible. Otherwise, main impacts to aviation will revolve around ongoing periods of light to moderate rain that are forecast to continue through Friday morning. Have thus gone prevailing SHRA with reduced vsbys at all TAF sites. Rain coverage then becomes more SCT late tonight into Friday morning, which should signal an improvement to more widespread MVFR cigs. Potential for cigs lifting to VFR then exists after 18Z. Northwesterly winds ramp up late Friday morning as rain comes to an end from west to east. Surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph are forecast for all terminals, peaking early Friday afternoon. A brief period of LLWS will be possible over RHI, AUW, and CWA early Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, putting us solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 34 kts, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 7 to 10 ft on the Lake and 4 to 7 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Warning remains in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....KLJ AVIATION.......Goodin MARINE.........Goodin/KLJ  070 FXUS63 KLBF 152350 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and freezing conditions are expected across the region overnight and again on Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect across western Nebraska tonight, with a Freeze Watch across the rest of the region tomorrow night. - Along with the frost and freeze conditions, breezy conditions will push wind chills each morning in to the teens to lower 20s. - By Saturday afternoon, conditions return to a warmer, dryer pattern, which lasts into next week. Seasonal to above seasonal highs are expected, with a return of above seasonal overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 An upper level trough is tracking southeast across the Dakotas this afternoon, with a surface low pressure system ahead of it. The surface low pressure system also brings an associated cold front across the region this afternoon, pushing through by this evening. High pressure builds across the northern Plains behind the cold front. The last remaining rain showers are tracking out of the region this afternoon, with clearing skies and gusty northerly winds in their wake. This evening, as the cold front clears the area, a cold, dry Canadian air mass pools across the region, bringing a risk for our first frost and freezing conditions of the season. With the tight pressure gradient from the high across the northern Plains and the exiting low, expecting that surface winds remain quite gusty this evening, which may limit temperatures from completely dropping off overnight. However, the clear skies will allow for radiational cooling, so do anticipate this to be the coldest night of the fall season so far (tomorrow night will be even colder). Coldest overnight conditions are expected mainly west of Highway 61, where overnight lows are expected to drop below 30 degrees, potentially reaching a hard freeze (28 degrees or cooler). However, most areas west of Highway 83 are likely to drop below 32 degrees, if only briefly, overnight. With this in mind, went ahead and upgraded our existing Freeze Watch to a Warning. Should note that even areas outside the Freeze Warning will get cold tonight, with lows across the forecast region ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. As these cold temperatures set in overnight, the windy conditions will have a bit of a bite to them. Wind chills overnight and into Friday morning are now expected to drop into the teens to lower 20s across most of the region. While these temperatures are not unusual for October, the fact that this is a fairly late first frost/freeze may catch some folks a bit off guard. Those with outdoor plants, pipes, irrigation, and pets may want to take precaution tonight, if they have not done so already. Additionally, with these colder conditions in the morning, folks may want to make sure to have warm clothing for the morning commute to work and school. Our recent overnight lows in the 40s and 50s have been well above normal for this time of year, as we typically see lows around 31 to 33 degrees for mid October. With cooler air aloft on Friday, conditions remain on the cooler side throughout the day. Highs are only expected to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Some cloud cover may track across portions of north central in the morning to afternoon hours, but expecting skies will be mostly clear by the evening. This will set up another night of radiational cooling across the region, with more widespread lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Sufficient surface winds should bring another morning of colder wind chills across the region, with wind chills in the teens to lower 20s. With this second round of cooler air across the region, expecting fairly widespread frost across the region, not to mention freezing temperatures across the rest of the region. For this reason, have issued another Freeze Watch this shift and will continue to monitor for potential upgrades to a Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning over the next 24 to 36 hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After the cold start Saturday morning, conditions begin to warm again, with a return to seasonal to above seasonal highs and warmer overnight lows. Upper level ridging begins to track across the region again, building in earnest on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, expecting highs to range from the lower 60s east of Highway 83 to the lower 70s west of Highway 61. With the warmer conditions out west, will be keeping an eye for potential elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours, as the above average temperatures will also usher in near critical humidity values. There may be sufficient overlap with gusty winds to cause a few hours of concern, so will continue to monitor closely. By Saturday night, expecting warmer, but still cool, overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunday and beyond, with upper level ridging expected to be in place across the region, expecting mostly warmer, dryer conditions through the week. Highs Sunday and early in the week are expected to return to the mid 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows in the lower 40s. For reference, typical highs this time of year are around 62 to 64 degrees, with typical overnight lows of 31 to 33 degrees. As ridging continues to build on Tuesday, we may see even warmer highs, potentially pushing into the mid to upper 70s by late week, with potential for overnight lows to return to the 50s. Guidance still continues to suggest a possible upper level disturbance mid to late week, which may bring our next chances for precipitation, but there is still considerable uncertainty in track and timing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered clouds will persist for area terminals until increasingly low stratus builds in late tonight. MVFR CIGs appear increasingly likely early Friday morning as gusty north winds continue. Speeds should slowly decrease through late morning, with gusts largely subsiding by the afternoon hours as skies clear. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ005>010-024>029-036>038-059-070-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...NMJ  209 FXUS63 KDTX 152355 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 755 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers expand in coverage and intensity overnight. - A cold front delivers gusty winds (+35 mph) and chillier conditions Friday, with periods of showers. - Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. - Turning drier over the weekend and through the first half of next week with a gradual warm-up starting Sunday. && .AVIATION... Surface low pressure is analyzed roughly 80 miles west-southwest of KORD at issuance and will lift northeast through the course of the night. For now, this has maintained a broad plume of MVFR stratus at all terminal sites with vsby restrictions confined to the northern portions of the airspace. Expectation however is for upstream IFR cigs/vsbys to move in tandem with the low pressure center and reach the airspace late this evening-overnight (between 02z-05z). Have not seen any lightning so far with accompanying shower activity, but there will be a brief opportunity for a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE to lift into southern portions of the airspace between about 03z and 08z tonight. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but affords very low confidence in impacting any one terminal site. Once the surface low passes through around 06z, winds quickly shift to the southwest and become gusty amidst a strong low level jet. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer to be fairly well-mixed, favoring gusty 20-25 knot SW winds rather than materializing as low level wind shear. Gradual improvement in ceilings expected through Friday, but will be challenged by lake moisture as winds veer to the northwest throughout the daytime hours. D21/DTW Convection...Very low probability for an isolated thunderstorm to develop before 08z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through the TAF period. * Low for thunder through 08z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 DISCUSSION... High pressure exits as rain approaches, with showers now being sampled via KDTX radar over western Lower Michigan. These initial showers will first fill in over the Tri-Cities, before spreading across the rest of Southeast Michigan this evening. This latest bout of rainfall is tied to the downstream effects from the phasing of a progressive northern stream longwave trough and a southern stream low, now opening up over the lower Missouri basin. Meanwhile, the resulting surface low is currently lifting across Illinois, deepening as it tracks toward Lake Michigan while sustaining a broad region of showers under the wider cyclonic influence. Warm/moist advection is underway as a rich theta-e plume gets shoved into the Ohio Valley, ahead of the inbound cold front. Expect a sharp uptick in coverage and rainfall rate after this plume engages the stronger dynamics, once the elevated warm nose makes further inroads into the region. Given the pace and trajectory of this low, timing issues do exist in pairing the more robust forcing with a deeper moisture layer. Hi-Res models still depict large differences in the deformation/FGEN axis of the higher rainfall amounts. It is still plausible for a narrow stripe of 0.75+ inches of QPF to set up somewhere over the forecast area, generally along a southwest to northeast line. The aggregated NBM suite has this corridor bisecting the Tri-Cities and Thumb areas. Timing-wise, the peak of the event should center between the hours of 7 PM and 1 AM. Forecast soundings are not very bullish in developing unstable layers, but still can't completely rule out an isolated rumble of thunder given upstream convective activity. Should also note that shower residence time ought to be higher over The Thumb once the lake effect influence takes root. With the low exiting into Lake Huron around 09Z Friday, rainfall should drop off quickly once the initial cold front works through. This veers winds west-southwesterly through the first half of the day with temperatures holding steady in the mid 50s. Additional showers will be possible Friday afternoon as the secondary cold front sweeps through, marked by a sharp northwesterly wind shift, uptick in wind/gust speeds, and brisk cold advection. Gusts in the 35-45 mph range may arise on Friday. First, with the trailing low- level jet overnight into the morning hours during a period of higher stability, then again during the afternoon/evening once the mixed- layer deepens from the frontal passage. The main area that could see borderline Wind Advisory criteria exists over The Thumb, given the lower friction and northerly flow off Lake Huron. The instability created by the front should also wring out lingering moisture in the form of rain. Any shower development associated with this activity should be rather light and brief. Aggressive post-frontal drying and cooling then yields a clear and crisp night with many locations likely to drop below freezing, more so outside of Metro Detroit. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed Friday night into Saturday morning with temperatures minimizing in the low 30s. Drier conditions settle in over the weekend as surface high pressure expands out of the Plains. Chilly, but less windy, on Saturday with highs about 10F below average, in the low-mid 50s. The surface ridge then centers over Appalachia Saturday night into Sunday, leading to a local gradient wind shift toward the southwest. This helps boost readings back up to seasonal normals (low-mid 60s) by Sunday. Rain- free weather likely persists through the first half of next week while split-flow situates overhead. Expect highs to run a few degrees above normal next week. MARINE... Showers increase in coverage and southeast winds strengthen this evening as low pressure approaches from the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the system crosses southern Lake Michigan shortly after midnight, its warm front lifts across Lakes Erie and St. Clair which causes wind direction to veer to southwest. A strong 40 to 50 kt low-level jet passes over this area, supportive of wind gusts to around 30 kt to reach the surface mainly before dawn. The deepening surface low tracks across Lake Huron Friday morning, pushing a strong cold front southward across the region through the rest of the day. Rapid cold advection leads to increasing instability while northerly wind direction offers favorable fetch down the long axis of Lake Huron. This produces a powerful wind field that peaks late Friday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities remain high for gusts to 35 to 40 kt gales and a Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie may see a brief period with gusts to 35 kt, but given the unfavorable fetch, any gales are expected to be brief. Lake effect showers and gusty northerly wind continue through Friday night before a ridge of high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, shifting wind to southwest Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient offers potential for winds to increase back to gale force across Saginaw Bay and out into the open waters of Lake Huron during the day Sunday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363- 421-422-441>443-462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday forLEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...KGK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  189 FXUS63 KJKL 152331 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 731 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times through Friday night. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night into Monday morning for many area valleys. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 555 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 A warm front will continue moving northeast along and west of the Cumberland Plateau escarpment this evening, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over the next couple of hours generally along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. As shower and thunderstorm activity retreats north of the area by ~03z, southwesterly low-level winds and resulting LLWS will then develop briefly across the area as a strong cold front approaches from the west. LLWS is most likely for sites north and west of JKL, as the low-level jet will be weakening as it moves east across the area overnight. Southwest winds will become more westerly and then northwesterly as the cold front crosses the area during the daytime hours Friday, with wind gusts near 20 kts possible at most if not all TAF sites through much of the daytime period. The cold front will bring the return of MVFR and lower conditions along with the chance for -SHRA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  271 FXUS63 KFSD 152332 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain tapers off across northwestern Iowa through this evening. - Strong northwest winds continue into Friday morning, with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Gusts around 50 mph are expected across south central South Dakota. - Moderate to high (60% or greater) chances of frost for most of the area Friday night/early Saturday, highest near and east of Interstate 29 with temperatures 32 degrees F or colder. West of I-29 frost may be possible with a 50% chance for temperatures to fall below 35 degrees F. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain is ending from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a northern stream upper trough and surface low drag a cold front through the region. At the same time the northern stream upper trough is merging into the southern stream trough responsible for the rain, deepening and strengthening the over all system. Strong winds have begun to develop in response to the tightening SPG and a strong push of CAA. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds will be located over central South Dakota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area until 4 am Friday morning. The strongest winds will move east overnight with the upper trough but should remain under advisory criteria at 35 to 40 mph. Thanks to the mixy winds and lingering clouds overnight lows tonight will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Early Friday morning there is a chance for additional light, scattered rain showers as moisture wraps around the surface low located over Minnesota. This combined with a second strong push of CAA will result in the LLJ increasing to 50+ kts over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. An area of wind gusts up to 45 mph may be possible in southwest Minnesota. At this time, confidence in winds meeting advisory level criteria are too low to issue a headline. But this will need to be monitored through Friday morning. Winds gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. Highs for Friday will be below average for this time of year (average is low 60s) in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds break up through the afternoon and skies will be clear overnight with nearly calm winds. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas along and east of I-29 are likely to see temperatures fall to 30 degrees, therefore have issued a Freeze Watch from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Precautions are recommended for sensitive outdoor plants. Areas to the west of I-29 may have the potential for frost development, but confidence was too low at this time to issue a Frost Advisory. An upper ridge builds into the area for the weekend. Winds turn southerly and WAA will boost our highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be in the 40s. Dry and warmer than average conditions continue Sunday through the middle part of next week. Highs will warm from the the mid 60s Sunday and Monday into the low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain return for the second half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rain continues move east, stretching from KOLU to KSUX to KSPW into central MN at the time of this discussion. Patchy MVFR ceilings near/east of that line push east as well. However, further north and west, additional lower VFR stratus is expected to lower into MVFR conditions overnight. Wrap-around showers will impact portions of the area late this evening and overnight, but shouldstay north of a KHON to KFSD to KSLB line. Ceilings improve through the afternoon hours Friday, with VFR conditions for the end of the period and onward. Winds remain strong out of the northwest overnight, with gusts 25 to 35 knots common. Gusts around 40 knots continue across south central SD. Expect winds and gusts to taper down slowly during the morning hours, with gusts around 20 knots into the afternoon and early evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for SDZ071. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ050-057-063. Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for SDZ052-058-064. MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  438 FXUS64 KMAF 152336 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through late Friday morning across much of west Texas. - A cold front today through Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will occur tonight through Friday. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area radars show round #2 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #3 commencing around 20Z or so. KMAF radar bias has increased from below 1 to 1.21 over the past few hours, suggesting the airmass has transitioned from convective to tropical. This is further evidenced by heavy rainfall reported over the past few hours. Supporting this, the KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.68". The 100th percentile is 1.43", and the (now old) record is 1.47". Latest mesoanalysis shows a prefrontal trough moving through the area, with a cold front following this evening. W/drier air advecting in behind these features, best chances for convection tonight will be south of I-20. With the airmass having gone tropical, the current flood watch looks on track. Latest NBM/MOS suggest wind advisories are warranted over the higher terrain as the front moves south, and the high wind warning has been shortened temporally to end Friday evening. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures yet this fall, with overnight minimums coming in ~ 5 F or less above climatology. Friday, showers are possible along and south of I-10, but will quickly diminish to the southwest as the front continues pushing south. CAA will be in full force, with highs a good ~ 15-20 F below normal, keeping all locations in the 50s and 60s. Friday night, as post-frontal gradients/winds relax under clearing skies, lows will drop a good 10 F or so from tonight, putting all locations in the 30s and 40s. The highest elevations of the Davis Mountains may even see a light freeze. This front will definitely brrrring in Fall proper. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cooler temperatures commence this weekend as surface high pressure centered over the Southern Great Plains reinforces cooler air behind the cold front. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s expected in a few locations. From Sunday onward, return flow and mostly sunny skies bring a warming trend. At this time, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of next week. Low chances of rain (10-30%) return to the western half of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR CIGs have arrived at MAF. They may be intermittent the next couple of hours then should settle in steady through around 10Z before scattering out. MVFR CIGs are also expected to develop near FST along with SHRA and persist until around 12Z. TS is possible but confidence too low to put in the TAF. Otherwise VFR conditions expected with gusty northeast winds. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 60 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 55 65 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 54 59 44 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 58 40 57 / 90 100 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 55 39 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 50 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 51 35 54 / 80 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 54 59 41 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 56 63 41 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  160 FXUS61 KBUF 152353 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 753 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. Sharp mid level trough will advance into the Great Lakes tonight through Friday. Surface low pressure will strengthen across the Great lakes tonight and move into southern Ontario by Friday morning, reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by Friday afternoon. The expected track of the surface low will allow the warm sector to build into the lower Great Lakes. A period of strong warm advection and moisture transport, enhanced by a 50+ knot low level jet, will arrive tonight and support an initial wave of rainfall. This rain will arrive in western New York by around midnight, then spread quickly northeast overnight. Additional periods of rain will continue Friday through Friday evening as the trailing cold front moves southeast across the region, supported by mid level height falls and right entrance region jet dynamics. Marginal instability in the warm sector may support a few embedded thunderstorms as well late tonight through Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. It will become quite windy late tonight through Friday. A 50+ knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. Gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range areawide, with gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph in downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north of the Tug Hill Plateau briefly. Boundary layer flow will quickly swing around to the southwest Friday morning through mid afternoon, with gusts still in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and up to 45 mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop Friday night in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes Friday night, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late Friday night through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s Saturday night on the lake plains, with some 20s likely across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. The cold air will quickly depart, with temperatures back above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, W'erly flow backs gradually to SW'erly as a ridge exits E'ward and a trough axis approaches from the north-central U.S. and eventually the central Great Lakes through 00Z/Sat. At the surface, a ridge continues to exit E'ward as a strengthening low wobbles NE'ward from near the southwestern Great Lakes to southern QC. This low track will allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Western and Central NY between ~04Z/Fri and ~13Z/Fri before a cold front sweeps E'ward through our region between ~17Z/Fri and ~22Z/Fri. Behind the front, troughing lingers over Western and Central NY through 00Z/Sat. Ahead of the warm front, our regional surface winds veer from NE'erly to SE'erly around 5 to 10 knots. The warm front passage will cause surface winds to veer to S'erly to SW'erly and these winds will increase to around 10 to 20 knots in response to the strengthening surface low. Gusts up to 20 to 35 knots at times are expected. The cold front passage will cause surface winds to veer to W'erly to NW'erly around 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 20 to 35 knots at times. Note: a SW'erly low-level jet of ~40 to ~50 knots at/near 925 mb should translate NE'ward across our region Friday morning and result in periodic low-level wind shear. Widespread ceilings, primarily in the mid/upper-levels at first, will thicken and lower gradually to the MVFR to IFR range and generally from WSW to ENE the rest of this evening through ~08Z/Fri. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are then expected through 00Z/Sat. Widespread rain, accompanied by VFR to MVFR visibility and associated with the low pressure system, should blossom over and overspread Western and Central NY generally from WSW to ENE between ~01Z/Fri and ~08Z/Fri. The widespread rain should then exit our region generally from west to east following the passage of the aforementioned surface cold front. However, scattered rain showers associated with the upper-reaches of the front should linger through 00Z/Sat. Also, lake-effect rain showers should develop over and generally SE of the eastern Great Lakes between ~21Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat. Periodic MVFR visibility is possible with steadier showers behind the surface cold front. Outlook... Friday night...Mainly MVFR ceilings with scattered rain showers over and generally SSE of the eastern Great Lakes. Rain may mix with wet snow during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, especially inland from the lakes. Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings and isolated rain and/or wet snow showers over and generally SSE of the eastern Great Lakes should end by late morning. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR expected. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR and dry weather likely. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on both lakes this afternoon, but winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will track across the southern Great Lakes tonight, reaching southern Ontario Friday morning. This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast across the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday, reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Southerly winds will increase overnight tonight ahead of the system, then quickly veer to the southwest and west Friday as the low passes by just north of the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty north-northwest winds Friday night through Saturday morning. Sustained winds during this timeframe will average 20-30 knots, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. Some periodic gusts to near gale force are possible. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...TMA  351 FXUS61 KILN 152358 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 758 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Backed off on flood threat for tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into tonight with a few lingering showers possible into Friday. There is a low end severe weather threat this evening ahead of a cold front moving through. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. 2) Gusty winds are expected on Friday with a rapid drop in temperatures. Frost is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) A warm front will lift north into our area tonight ahead of a low pressure system riding east along it. This will be followed by a strong cold front that will push southeast across our area through Friday morning. Good moisture transport will develop across the region in the developing southwest flow through this evening. As the warm front lifts north into our area and the low approaches, shear profiles will be on the increase. However, there remains some question as to how much instability will develop/be advected up into our area ahead of this. As of now, it looks like the best chance for some destabilization will be across our far west/southwest. This is where the best chance for any severe storms seems to be this evening. If some stronger storms are able to develop, damaging wind would be the primary threat. With high PWs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any stronger storms, but this threat too looks to be limited. Between the warm front tonight and the cold front on Friday morning, we will have non-diurnal temperatures over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain cool through much of this afternoon before slowly rising overnight in developing southwest low level flow. Temperatures will then rapidly drop off from the northwest Thursday morning as strong low level CAA overspreads the area. Key Message 2) In the low level CAA, temperatures will level off/continue to drop through the day on Friday with readings by late afternoon only in the mid 50s across the area. Gusty winds will also develop in the CAA with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible through the day. The cold air will then remain in place across our area through the weekend. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night, with clear skies and light winds. Will undercut guidance a bit with lows in the low to mid 30s and widespread frost expected. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level trof over the Northern Plains sharpens up as it translates east across the Great Lakes overnight/Friday. In response to this strengthening system - a surface low over the Mid MS Valley deepens as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes overnight into Friday. A warm front lifts north and all ILN/s TAF sites get in the warm sector this evening. An axis of marginal instability develops in the warm sector ahead of an associated strong cold front that sweeps east thru the TAF sites late tonight/early Friday. In strengthening southwest low level flow, some LLWS will also be possible at times overnight. MVFR cigs continue to hang tough across the area early this evening and expect this to continue with only a possible small window of VFR developing prior to the development of thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late this evening into the overnight hours. The strong cold front will move southeast across the region late tonight into Friday morning. As it does, winds will shift to the west and then northwest and increase, with gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible through the day on Friday. MVFR cigs will then prevail through the end of the TAF period. Also, additional post frontal showers arelikely Friday with the upper trof pivoting thru the region. OUTLOOK...Occasional MVFR conditions are possible through Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...AR  283 FXUS61 KPBZ 152357 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 757 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain shower chances have decreased today. Added a mention of thunder on Friday with a strong cold front. A portion of the area generally east of I-79 has been included in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, possible thunderstorms, and gusty wind tonight and Fri. 2) Colder behind the front, with frost and freeze conditions Sat night. Frost may be possible again Sun night. 3) Dry and warmer next week, but the forecast has very low predictability at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Storms forming in the Midwest today have a low probability of maintaining strength tonight as a low-level jet and nwd- advancing warm front help maintain only modest stabilization in a moistening boundary layer. If storms are maintained, it will be possible to see a stronger gust or two, but the likelihood of impactful weather tonight remains low. Of greater concern is potential for stronger low-topped convective development on Fri, where buoyancy concentrated in the lower levels of the atmosphere will overlap favorably with convergence within a pre-frontal trough within a moderately sheared environment. There remains timing/positional uncertainty in the placement of the pre-frontal trough convergence zone, with some guidance suggesting a slower progression. If this slower progression materializes, there will be better potential for destabilization as enhanced ascent overspreads the region within a strong mid- level jet streak. Better potential for severe weather exists to the east of the Upper Ohio Valley, but at this time, we cannot rule out the potential for the wrn position of the initiating boundary. If it becomes clear that the boundary is favoring earlier passage, the severe weather threat locally will be minimized. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold advection in the wake of a strong cold-frontal passage will support renewal of lake-enhanced showers Fri night within a plume of steeper low-level lapse rates. Temperature is not expected to cool sufficiently for notable snow, although low (<10%) chances for snow exist at the highest elevations of the WV ridges thru the weekend. Elevated wind and cloud cover Fri night are likely to preclude frost/freeze concerns, but conditions will become more favorable Sat night as wind slackens and cloud cover dissipates. Cluster analysis suggests two potential H5 patterns that will govern the Sat/Sun evolution: 1) The scenario that is more likely suggests the H5 trough advancing bodily ewd, with cold air building in Sat night leading to widespread temperature in the 30-35F range and potential frost/freeze conditions. 2) A second scenario features low pressure cutting off from the main trough, leading to a quicker departure, less cold air intrusion, and cooler temperature/frost potential favoring mainly the ridges/northeastern most zones. Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) suggests that the second scenario is driven by the strength of a H5 ridge currently building in the wrn CONUS, and the timing of phasing of TS Simon into the broader flow. If the ridge is stronger and TS Simon slower to phase, it favors a cutoff low development and warmer outcome as discussed in Outcome 2 above. Monitor the forecast for frost/freeze potential. Greatest confidence in impactful temperature will be the northeastern zones, as temps of 30-35 are most likely there in either outcome above. KEY MESSAGE 3... In the wake of the trough, quite a bit of uncertainty grows with the medium-range pattern next week. Much of the guidance favors a H5 ridge building across the Midwest, suggesting increasing warmth for the Upper Ohio Valley. However, other guidance suggests troughing could develop, which would favor cooler temperature. The degree of ridging or troughing in the east appears highly correlated to the position of a wrn-CONUS trough/potential cutoff low around Mon/Tue timeframe. Given this wide variability and dependence on atmospheric flow features that do not yet exist, the forecast next week has very low predictability, and should be consumed with that awareness. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The low ceilings have made their way south and LIFR conditions to IFR conditions are in place at the terminals across the area. Winds will light to begin the period but will increase overnight. Overnight, we will also see the wind veer from east to south as conditions remain relatively breezy. By tomorrow morning, areas around PIT and south, are forecast to briefly scatter out by tomorrow morning. During the day, showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of a strong front will bring low MVFR and IFR cigs to areas that were able to scatter out. Wind will freshen up as it veers to the west. Gusts up to 30-40kts are likely with higher gusts up to 45-50kts possible across the higher terrain airports. Restrictions will continue through the day as the cold front approaches. After the brief improvement in conditions roughly around 12Z to 15Z, showers and thunderstorms will form along the front and move through the area through the late morning and into the afternoon. Have used some PROB30s to account for the line of storms midday and into the afternoon. Conditions should begin to improve at least some by 00Z Saturday. Outlook... Showers will continue Friday night under subsequent upper troughing. Building high pressure will return dry weather Saturday into next week. Wind will also diminish on Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kramar/WM AVIATION...Shallenberger/Lupo  021 FXUS61 KRLX 152349 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 749 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation and equipment section. As of 208 PM... A warm front will support mainly showers or an isolated thunderstorm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few storms continue as a warm front lifts north today. 2) Strong cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds on Friday. 3) Cool and drier on Saturday, with widespread frost/freeze conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, currently draped across southern WV and northeast KY, will begin to shift north as a warm front while the parent low tracks towards the Great Lakes Region. Showers are expected to continue in the vicinity of the front today, then activity will diminish as the front exits the area this evening into tonight. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains present across portions of central and southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia, where heavier downpours could prompt isolated high water issues. While isolated storms are not entirely out of the question along the boundary later this afternoon, the risk of severe weather remains low for today. KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system and upper trough will usher a strong cold front across the area on Friday, with showers, storms, and gusty winds expected to occur during the frontal passage. Precipitation should then persist through the night as the upper trough passes overhead. Blustery conditions will also continue into Saturday morning, with 25-30 mph gusts expected across the lowlands, and up to 45 mph gusts possible along the higher terrain. Cold air advection will quickly lower temperatures from west to east behind the front, likely sending temperatures into the 50s across much of the area by the end of the day. Temperatures further lower into the 30s to 40s overnight, which may allow some snowflakes to materialize over the higher elevations of the northeast mountains early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations are not anticipated. KEY MESSAGE 3... On Saturday, winds gradually relax and precipitation comes to an end as high pressure builds in from the west during the day. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal, with highs likely remaining in the 50s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Under calm winds and clear skies, overnight lows are expected to plummet into the 20s to 30s, resulting frost and freeze conditions across the entirety of the forecast area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are generally expected to continue into the new work week, though temperatures trend warmer as high pressure meanders towards the east coast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ample low-level moisture may allow fog or low ceilings to form initially this evening, especially across the south where gradients will remain loosest the longest. Increasing gradients should dissipate much of any restrictions that do form heading into the latter half of the overnight. Isolated to scattered elevated showers are possible overnight as the low-level jet strengthens, with brief MVFR visibility reductions possible in any shower. A cold front will swing through largely during the day on Friday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms along with a sharp northwesterly wind shift. Gusts of 20 to 30KTs are expected with the frontal passage and cold advection. MVFR to brief IFR conditions are possible with showers or thunderstorms, though direct hits are difficult to time and IFR should be short-lived. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and low stratus could be more common tonight until gradients start to increase before dawn. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions may linger Friday night, especially in the mountains. Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early-morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations at HTS are not making it out long line since 19Z, but the ASOS appears to be functional. The observation is available via ATIS or the dial-in line. No estimated time is available for restoration. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20/JP AVIATION...JP EQUIPMENT...JP  371 FXUS62 KTAE 152359 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again Friday morning across much of the area. - A strong cold front Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 35 to 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions across the area will remain constant tomorrow, with only a very minimal chance of rain along the coast of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will remain across the region through Friday ahead of the front moving in later this weekend. Tonight, minimal winds due to a very weak pressure gradient in tandem with prefrontal moisture will create ideal conditions for patchy fog to form tomorrow morning across the area. As the day progresses, the high pressure system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front sweeps through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. It'll be a mostly dry frontal passage with the highest chance for rain across the southeastern Florida Big Bend Friday night. However, you'll know the front is through when winds turn more northerly and increase substantially with widespread wind gusts of 30+ mph expected early Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions continue throughout Saturday and linger into Saturday night before the pressure gradient relaxes enough to allow winds to calm some. Even then, winds are forecast to remain elevated into early next week. As mentioned in the previous AFD, this type of wind could hamper hurricane recovery efforts across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and a Wind Advisory for these areas will be considered, even if it may not explicitly hit criteria. One good thing about this front is it will bring a true taste of autumn with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s over the weekend. Temperatures moderate some early next week, but still remain near to slightly below normal for this time of year. One thing we'll also monitor is the potential for a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic states next week. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid-Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through most of the overnight period, another round of patchy fog is expected to impact area terminals during the pre-dawn hours, lingering an hour or two after sunrise. This patchy fog could lead to pockets of MVFR to IFR vsbys. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Low probability (PROB30) at ECP to see some rain showers late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue Friday with light easterly breezes in the morning turning more westerly later in the day. That changes in a hurry as a powerful cold front sweeps across the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase substantially out of the northwest to north following the frontal passage. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch for all of our waters Friday night through at least Saturday night. Winds are forecast to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another dry day is in the forecast again Friday ahead of a cold front. MinRh will generally be between 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon. Transport winds will generally be out of the west ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring a low, 20 to 30 percent, chance of an isolated shower or two as the front sweeps through, especially along the immediate coast and the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Winds quickly become northerly following the front late Friday night into Saturday with gusts generally between 30 to 40 mph. MinRH is forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Patchy dense fog is possible from early to mid-morning again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Several sites, including a number of them along the Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee Rivers, remain in Action stage this afternoon but are slowly falling. An isolated shower or two is possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, but they shouldn't cause any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast period is looking dry. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 89 61 72 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 68 85 60 72 / 0 10 10 0 Dothan 64 86 55 70 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 63 87 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 88 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 68 89 66 75 / 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 69 84 64 72 / 0 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ735. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese  090 FXUS63 KABR 152350 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will continue this evening across central and north central South Dakota behind a cold front. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all counties west of Brown and Spink through early Friday morning. - Another round of light rain moves into eastern SD and west central MN this evening before exiting late tonight. Up to a tenth of an inch of rain is possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main concern, other than the light shower activity along the ND/SD border and over the Prairie Coteau/Sisseton Hills, is the ongoing strong winds. A reinforcing round of strong winds will move across northeastern SD/west central MN 03-11Z Friday. Gusts on the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau may briefly gust at or around 45mph. The ongoing Wind Advisory for much of central SD continues until 09Z. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gusty northwest winds continue to spread east today behind the sfc cold front and with the upper trough. There have been a couple gusts over 58 mph along and west of the Missouri in the clear air, better mixing environment, but nothing widespread enough to merit an upgrade. As the upper trough digs in more this evening, the 80 to 90kt jet will help keep the winds gusty overnight. Ensemble 90th percentiles keep gusts to 50 mph over the Coteau and the Sisseton Hills early Friday morning. Current NBM holds those gusts to around 40 mph, so did not expand the wind headlines farther east for now. Another area of low clouds is wrapping around the low in northern ND and pushing south into north central SD this afternoon. These clouds are expected to expand and stick around most of the night. Some additional sprinkles or light rain is possible in this wraparound/deformation zone. Between the persistent winds and the clouds, temperatures should not drop below freezing. Blended in hi- res model guidance to push temps up a few degrees. Have lows in the 30s for tonight with Corson county approaching freezing as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Given the winds, decided not to go with any frost headlines for tonight. However, Friday night/Saturday morning will need another look for frost/freeze headlines. There are still model differences in timing of a building ridge aloft and exit of the sfc high that will influence Friday night's lows. Temperatures warm above normal starting Saturday with the ridge aloft. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will lower to MVFR as thicker/lower clouds sink in from the north. Winds gusting 33-43kts will slowly diminish overnight, with VFR ceilings returning to all sites by 16Z Friday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003>005- 009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...06  878 FXUS63 KDMX 152345 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 645 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers gradually end southwest to northeast this evening though additional wrap-around showers are possible in the north and east overnight into Friday morning. - Becoming windy and much cooler tonight into Friday. Winds out of the northwest gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times, with some higher gusts possible in the north/northwest Friday morning. - A Freeze Watch was issued for much of the area Saturday morning with lows in the low the upper 20s to low 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Near widespread rain this morning has begun to decrease in coverage this afternoon and this trend is expected to gradually continue southwest to northeast through the rest of the afternoon into evening. Temperatures today have been held down by the clouds and rain with locations north in the upper 40s to low 50s, central in the 50s, and further south to southeast where winds still remain out of the south to southeast, in the 60s to even low 70s. The strong upper trough remains to our west this afternoon but will continue to deepen as it swings through the central U.S. tonight through Friday. The pressure gradient will continue to strengthen tonight and strong cold air advection will be brought into the area tonight into Friday morning leading to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to 40s but will be kept from falling off too much with more minimal clearing expected between clouds starting to depart following the rain this evening and additional cloud cover moving in from the north as the system wraps around into Friday morning. Additional rain showers are also expected as we get the wrap-around precipitation overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the north and east. Along with the cloudy, and in some cases light rain, tonight into Friday will generally not be pleasant as the strong winds out of the northwest continue to increase. These winds look to peak on Friday morning sustained around 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph common, and some gusts near to in excess of 45 mph, especially in northern to northwestern Iowa. Cloud cover may help limit the amount of mixing and thus the strongest wind gusts, but forecast soundings do reveal many locations in northwest Iowa with top of the mixed- layer winds (which is only like 15-25kft early Friday) in the 40-50 knot range so certainly don't want to discount the potential for some 45-55 mph gusts and thus a wind headline. Overall wind gusts look to remain largely below wind advisory criteria and at this time plan to address with a SPS. Feel-like temperatures to start the day Friday will be in the 30s and only warming into the 40s to low 50s as highs themselves down't make it much past the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog may also be possible tonight into Friday morning especially south or southeast where any clearing may linger longest. Winds then gradually decrease through the afternoon to evening Friday northwest to southeast but temperatures remain chilly for any Friday evening activities. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plansnow to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR cigs have been extended in time in the short term, but vsbys from rain have trended better, so have removed those restrictions. VFR cigs will provide some intermission ahead of MVFR stratus in Minnesota. This cloud deck will re-cover all terminals eventually, giving another chance of rain in the early morning and keeping MVFR chances through at least the mid afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will increase with time, peaking in the morning hours tomorrow. 40kt gusts are most possible at KMCW and KFOD before 18z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>085-092>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Jimenez  985 FXUS64 KMEG 152348 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through the weekend. - Friday's cold front will bring an elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This morning's upper air analysis featured an upper-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. with a longwave trough axis extending from the Northern Plains to the Southwest U.S. Southwest flow aloft is present over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. A few subtle embedded shortwaves are producing some showers and thunderstorms upstream along the I-40 corridor in the vicinity of a cold front. Very warm and dry conditions persist across the Mid- South with late morning temperatures in the 80s. Another hot afternoon is expected across the area as temperatures rise into the lower 90s across most locations. This will result in the potential for a few additional high temperature records to be tied or broken. This period of hot weather will come to an end as a strong northern stream upper-level trough will drop into the region later tonight into Friday. This will result in strong cold air advection producing substantially cooler temperatures for Friday and the upcoming weekend. Highs this weekend will be mostly in the 60s with lows Saturday night falling into the upper 30s to middle 40s. Short-term model trends and soundings continue to indicate very sparse moisture associated with this frontal passage. Thus, confidence remains very low for any location receiving anything more than perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best. Elevated and gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage with surface dewpoints dropping substantially Friday afternoon. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30- 35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement. Long range deterministic and ensemble model trends continue to show a dry pattern persisting across the region as an omega block sets up across the Southern U.S. next week. Consequently, temperatures will transition back to above normal next week with highs in the 80s towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front remains on track for passage early Friday morning. Primary impact will be gusty NW winds that should remain fairly constant in speed and direction through the day. A post- frontal MVFR deck should scatter out by late morning/early afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry conditions will persist into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. A strong cold front will pass through the region later tonight into Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30-35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will moderate again next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB  943 FXUS64 KOHX 152347 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Some clouds are developing in Middle Tennessee this evening, but we're not expecting any precipitation overnight. Expect lows in the 50s and 60s. Low chances for precipitation Friday with the mostly dry cold front. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front remains situated to the immediate north of Middle Tennessee. There are a few radar echoes showing up across Kentucky, but rain chances across the mid state are negligible. A strong cold front is expected to blast through the region tomorrow and bring significantly cooler temperatures. Despite the strong temperature gradient between air masses, only low rain chances and minuscule rainfall amounts are expected with tomorrow's fropa. Indeed, the cold front will come through dry for most locations. But the temperatures that await on the other side are going to feel marvelous. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 While we're looking at one more day of record-breaking warmth today, many spots are likely to wake up to frost Sunday morning, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau and other traditional "cool spots" around the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee well into next week. Temperatures will warm up gradually after this weekend, but we don't expect to stray too far above seasonal norms even by the end of the week. Meanwhile, after Friday, there are no more weather-producing systems coming our way any time soon. Therefore, the worsening drought conditions that we are experiencing will continue to worsen, at least in the near-term. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR will continue through this evening with light SSW winds. A cold front will move in late tonight into Friday morning bringing an extended period of gusty NNW winds to 22KT and widespread MVFR cigs. Isolated light showers are possible after frontal passage, but coverage and impacts appear too limited to include in tafs. Cigs are expected to lift to VFR late Friday for CKV/BNA/MQY, but a lot of clouds and gusty winds will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 70 47 62 / 0 20 0 0 Clarksville 57 66 44 62 / 0 30 0 0 Crossville 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 10 0 Columbia 63 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 62 71 44 57 / 0 30 10 0 Jamestown 62 72 42 55 / 0 40 10 0 Lawrenceburg 63 73 44 61 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 73 46 63 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 58 64 45 60 / 10 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Holley SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13  109 FXUS65 KBOI 152350 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 550 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the western United States will remain the dominant weather feature across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Friday night. This will keep atmospheric conditions stable, resulting in clear skies, light surface winds, and temperatures running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry surface layer conditions will also contribute to mild afternoons and efficient radiational cooling at night. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 Sunday and Monday, temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A weak cold front on Sunday cools temps a few degrees from Saturday. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough becomes a cut off low in southern California. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and some breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. The low becomes cut off on Tuesday, as the earliest models show the cold front move through. There is still some uncertainty, inherent to cut off lows, that shows the cold front moving through Wednesday. When it passes, it will cool temps down to normal, low 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover, and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 539 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions from valley fog near KBKE-KBNO again tonight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM  903 FXUS65 KSLC 152346 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 545 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... - A drying trend develops today, persisting through the weekend. - Freezing temperatures look to develop across locations such as Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah Friday morning and potentially Saturday morning. - Another system is expected to move into the Great Basin by midweek next week, ushering in the return of precipitation to much of Utah and southwest WY. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... A mid-level lobe of vorticity will continue to break off of the departing low, spinning up another weak mid-level low across the southwest today. This won't surmount to much, other than the development of northeasterly winds across the forecast area. over the next couple days, this feature will continue to weaken and phase into the mean flow as westerly flow aloft establishes across the area. With ample clearing and height rises occurring across northern and central UT tonight, freezing temperatures appear likely across the Sevier and Sanpete valleys, though higher elevation areas within Juab/Millard counties and southwestern UT may see brief dips below freezing as well. Light surface winds beneath establishing high pressure will set the stage for a more robust radiational cooling setup tonight across the specified locations. With westerly flow aloft, dry and calm conditions are forecast to persist into early next week. Winds will be light and variable beneath clear skies, with a slight warming trend to near-normal temperatures statewide. Confidence continues to increase regarding a system impacting the forecast area mid-week next week. Guidance is generally trending more widespread with precipitation, though forcing remains modest among most ensemble members as the trough looks to amplify further east. Roughly ~30% of guidance has this occurring over UT, resulting in heavier mountain snowfall totals and lower elevation rainfall totals, as well as bringing snow levels down markedly compared to other suites. As the last few forecasts have specified, this forecast will continue to change substantially over the coming days. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal under mostly clear skies. Northwesterly winds are expected to become light and transition to the southeast after roughly 02z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven for northern Utah terminals into Friday. Across southern Utah and southwest Wyoming, gusty northerly to easterly winds taper off this evening, then redevelop Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026... High pressure continues to build in the wake of the departing low pressure system keeping conditions moderated and calm. While the airmass remains cool and stable, clear skies will enable temperatures to continue to warm into next week, closer to near-normals for this time of year. Nearly all of UT is expected to remain dry through early next week ahead of an incoming system which is forecast to usher in more precipitation around midweek. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ116-118-119. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  159 FXUS66 KMTR 152353 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 453 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we're seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn't rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far. The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We expect the Red Flag warning over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday. An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We're not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timing still too far out to speak of with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 433 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn't include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  261 FXUS64 KLUB 152312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible through the late afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our first "real" fall cold front has arrived and has pushed through nearly two thirds of the FA. Heavy rainfall continues ahead of and along the cold front. The Flood Watch and Flood Warning have been extended to 18Z as storms producing heavy rainfall continue to develop and move over our eastern zones. This activity should move out of the FA around or shortly after 18Z. Both hazards will be extended if this activity is much slower to move east, however. The area currently in the Flood Warning has seen the heaviest rainfall over the past 24 hours with ground stations (COOP and mesonets) reporting well over 4 inches and with radar estimates of 7+ inches, which seems very plausible. Winds behind the front will be breezy to low end windy this evening through Friday thanks to steady post-frontal pressure rises of 6-9 mb per 6 hours. CAA is not overly strong with this front, but it is present. Mostly cloudy skies should help keep highs in the 50s Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds will begin to clear by late Friday afternoon through the overnight hours just as a surface high begins to settle over the FA and drops winds to 5 mph or less. This will be a decent setup for radiational cooling. Dewpoints behind the front will drop into the 20s on the Caprock and low/mid 30s off the Caprock. There is some uncertainty with how low temps will drop by Saturday morning. As of now, there is high confidence in at least our northwestern zones hitting at to below freezing. Further south and east, temperatures will be very dependent upon cloud cover and where the surface low eventually settles. The NBM has started to come around to most MOS guidance. MOS guidance (MAV, MET, and ECM) have been pointing to lows at least in the mid 30s across the Caprock for several days now and continue to lower with each run. MET guidance is the coolest at 31 at KLBB. While the forecast grids don't reflect the coolest, they have been lowered from NBM. A Freeze Watch will also be in effect for areas on the Caprock from 06-15Z Saturday. While not all of the area may see freezing temps, they should get low enough to cause stress to sensitive plants, especially those still taking advantage of the semi-late growing season and recent rainfall. We are also several days from the average first freeze across the northwest and two weeks before at Lubbock. Upper ridging will move overhead this weekend as part of a weak blocking pattern, and the upper high will push to the southeast by Saturday afternoon. The shifting surface high will bring surface winds to the south to southeast and will help to warm highs back into the 70s early next week. Another upper is progged by models to move into California by mid next week, but there is much disagreement in the models with the future of the upper low beyond Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with low stratus has exited all terminals this evening with dry and breezy conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Expect northerly windsaround 15-25G35KTs at all terminals overnight through much of the day Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...12  321 FXUS66 KMFR 152313 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 413 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Except along/near the coast, we are anticipating VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with overall light wind speeds. Medford may experience low level wind shear tonight with a jet around 1000 ft at ~30 knots from the southeast while wind speeds are negligible at the surface. Otherwise, North Bend is forecast to see a marine stratus layer developing with LIFR/IFR ceilings starting tonight and going through much off tomorrow. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and again Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. DISCUSSION...Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and 78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances (10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs updated early afternoon...18Z sounding showed 850mb winds of 25-30kt. The risk of bumpy departures/arrivals or even LLWS lessens as vertical mixing increases for a few hours this afternoon. However, once the sun sets this evening, the east to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains, while winds decouple from the boundary layer (surface winds go light) as the low-level inversion redevelops. Since those ESE winds will be just a couple of thousand feet off the surface (again approximately 25-30 kt), there's an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning01-03Z and lasting until about 15Z. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$  980 FXUS63 KUNR 152328 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 528 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph with sporadic gusts of 60 mph expected across much of western SD this afternoon and evening. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected overnight. - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current upper air analysis shows upper trof axis draped across the Northern Plains. Attendant sfc front is pushing through the CWA with 3 hr pressure rises of 3-4 mb behind it. The pressure rises and cold air advection is supporting widespread gusty northwest winds, especially across the western SD plains. Stations across western SD have begun to report gusts of 45-55 mph, these winds should continue through this afternoon into late evening before diminishing overnight as the front exits the region. While a few gusts up to 60 mph are possible, the majority of gusts should be around 45 to 55 mph. CAA and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub- freezing temps tonight into Friday for much of the area. Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. Upper ridging builds over the western CONUS by Friday into this weekend. Expecting above average highs this weekend into early next week with elevated fire wx conditions. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 503 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Strong winds will start to diminish after sunset, until then widespread gusts of 45kts are expected on the western SD plains. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002- 012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078. Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049. WY...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...Schweigert  111 FXUS61 KBOX 152330 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 730 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a low risk for severe weather Friday between 5 and 11 pm in the form of strong to localized damaging wind gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. - Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. - Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Brief period of showers mainly Fri morning with a lull in the activity much of Fri afternoon outside of a few spot showers. Cluster of showers & perhaps a few embedded t-storms with even a low risk for severe weather between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening. Windy and much cooler Sat with highs in the lower-middle 50s. Large high pressure shifts east of the region tonight as an intensifying low pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes. This will allow a return southerly flow of air along with increasing low level moisture to work northward into the region overnight. Initially...mainly clear skies/light winds will allow for temps to fall quickly through the 40s in many locations shortly after sunset this evening. However...increasing clouds along with developing low level southeast flow will allow for slowly rising temperatures toward daybreak. In addition...the developing southerly LLJ/moisture transport will increase the forcing for ascent and allow for a cluster of showers to develop toward daybreak across interior southern New England. These showers may reach the coastal plain during the early-mid morning hours. The showers should be fairly numerous especially across northern MA...but the steady showers should be relatively short-lived lasting generally 1-3 hours in a given location. Otherwise...a good portion of Fri afternoon should feature a lull in the activity. A few spot showers certainly will remain possible...But much of this period may feature just cloudy skies with a breezy southerly wind. Despite lots of clouds...strong warm advection should push highs well into the 60s in many locations perhaps even near 70 in few spots. Dewpoints reaching or breaking 60+ will result in a bit of humidity too for the middle of October standards. The main concern though is between 5 and 11 pm Fri evening as a cold front crosses the region. There should be roughly a few hundred J/KG of at least elevated Cape ahead of this front. Strong jet dynamics/forcing are also depicted ahead of this front with 55-65 knots of effective shear. The high resolution models generally show a line of showers with perhaps some embedded thunder as the cold front sweeps across the region. Despite very strong jet dynamics...instability is meager...so the severe weather potential is low but brief sub-severe wind gusts of 35-50 mph are still possible even if the showers do not contain any thunder. However...if we end up getting just a bit better moisture return off the relatively warm ocean...the low risk for severe weather could be realized. The CSU machine learning probabilities as well as the NCAR HRRR neural network indicate a low risk for severe weather. Again this is a low probability...but it needs to be watched. The main risk would be locally strong to damaging wind gusts especially with fully leafed trees across most locations. Otherwise...a much cooler airmass works into the region late Fri night and Saturday on quite gusty NW winds. A few lingering showers possible into mid-morning Sat near the southeast New England coast. Otherwise...windy with northwest wind gusts on the order of 25 to 35 mph with a few gusts near 40 mph expected on Sat. Despite skies becoming partly sunny on Sat...highs will be held in the lower to middle 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chilly night Saturday night with below-freezing low temperatures away from the coasts. After a cool, dry and blustery Saturday, looking at one of the coldest nights we've seen to this point in autumn 2026 as broad, and strong high pressure settles in over the Northeast. It's still a little unclear how quickly the blustery NW winds from the daytime hours subside but at least very good radiational cooling conditions are anticipated. With a likely cool start, should see lows drop into mid 20s to low 30s range for much of Southern New England except in the mid 30s for the cities and Cape Cod/Islands. Note that the frost/freeze program for Southern New England has ended as of October 11th and not expected to resume again until mid-Spring 2027, which means freeze/frost headlines won't be issued; however if you still have plants/crops outside, you'll want to take the necessary precautions to prevent freeze/frost damage. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry with a modest warmup through early next week, though monitoring coastal storminess near or south of the mid- Atlantic waters. The expansive surface high pressure from Saturday night, spanning from the Southern Appalachians through Southern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, then governs our weather pattern Sunday through early next week. This will facilitate a steady warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures, with mostly clear skies and strong diurnal temperature ranges (milder days, cool nights). Looking at highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s. Highs by early next week rebound back into the middle 60s with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. It should be a largely dry period through Tuesday, though the one system we'll be monitoring is a closed upper low near the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas waters, a feature which became detached from the broader upper level westerlies along the stalled frontal boundary from Friday night and early Saturday. The general position of this system is generally agreed upon across the ensemble NWP suite and AI- based guidance, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if we see any of this moisture come back northward through the governing ridge. That could bring at least enhanced NE breezes, strongest near Cape Cod, and possibly some clouds/light rain showers by Tuesday for southeast New England. But it's very possible it ends up being mainly dry/remains to our south. Will maintain blended guidance for the time being until there's more agreement, but for now will continue to reassess subsequent guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence. VFR, though increasing moisture brings ceilings starting to lower to around MVFR levels for BDL/ORH after 09z Friday; rain showers could develop as soon as 09-11z Friday from west to east, but steadier rains probably holds off until 11-13z Friday from west to east. Light SE winds increase in speed to around 5-10 kt by daybreak. Friday: Moderate confidence. Deteriorating conditions to MVFR-IFR levels. Initial warm- frontal rains with 3-6 SM visby SHRA will bring ceilings to mainly MVFR levels starting ~11-13z, but period IFR ceilings possible. There probably will be more intermittent/lighter -SHRA (could even be dry for periods) after 16-19z west to east, butceilings should then trend IFR as rain lightens. Then a strong cold front then brings another period of 2-4 SM SHRA/+SHRA from 23-04z in a line, low chance for TSRA with localized gusty winds in that timeframe but left out for now due to low confidence. Winds start SE around 10 kt through 16-19z with the warm frontal rains, then shift to S around 10-12 kt with gusts to low-20s kt range, then becoming WSW at similar speeds ahead of the cold front. Friday Night: Moderate confidence. Cold front moves offshore early Fri night; showers begin to taper off between 03-06z west to east with ceilings rapidly improving to VFR. Windshift to NW with frontal passage, and becoming increasingly gusty, speeds 13-17 kt with gusts 25-30 kt becoming more common after 06z. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR for tonight with high confidence. SHRA develops around 13z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 00-03z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 06z Sat. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR tonight, ceilings start to lower to MVFR by 09z Fri. SHRA develops around 11z with MVFR visby and MVFR/periods IFR ceilings. More focused period of IFR as initial rain tapers off by early to midafternoon; line of SHRA/+SHRA with possible rumble of thunder between 22-01z Sat before gusty northwest windshift after 03z Sat. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Patchy frost. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Saturday...High confidence. High pressure moves east of the waters tonight...but winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Intensifying low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and then proceed near the northern New England/Quebec border Fri into Fri evening. Ahead of this front...strong small craft southerly wind gusts along with choppy seas will develop early Fri. We have hoisted small craft headlines for all our waters on Fri. Behind this cold front...NW wind gusts of 30-35 knots will develop especially late Fri night into Sat in the CAA pattern. Given it is marginal...we opted to continue Gale Watch over this time period. Despite marginal conditions...cold air advection patterns can often overperform this time of year given relatively warm SST which can enhance mixing. Either way...strong SCA to gale force wind gusts are expected with choppy seas. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230- 236. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn MARINE...Frank/Loconto  217 FXUS63 KDLH 152331 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue into this evening and overnight, the most over northwest Wisconsin. - Mild and dry conditions to follow rain on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday. - Next low chance for precipitation not until late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts. Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week. On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties. Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 First wave of light rain is still impacting the Twin ports and encompasses all of NW WI. Ceilings are fluctuating between MVFR/IFR. Later this evening another round of showers enters from the northwest and will dive southeast exiting tomorrow morning. This round of showers will bring a robust north wind with a strong pressure gradient setting up. For now wehave kept the gusty wind for after day break and bumped up the sustained winds for the predawn hours. However, this may need to be adjusted with wind speeds in excess of 30kts not far off the surface. Cloud cover will decrease through tomorrow with a return to VFR conditions. Wind speeds will also be decreasing through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes will bring hazardous marine conditions to western Lake Superior. A Gale Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for all nearshore zones and the outer Apostle Islands. North winds of 20 to 30 kt with gales to 40 to 45 kt will drive waves to 6 to 9 ft along the South Shore, 8 to 11 ft across the outer Apostle Islands with occasional waves to 14 ft, and 3 to 6 ft on the North Shore. Winds and waves will subside Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure approaches. Southwest winds will ramp up again on Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. Gales are possible as well in areas of the near shore waters, and will be more narrowed down in the next couple days. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread rainfall across the Northland continues through this evening and tonight. Strong north winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will arrive Friday morning, but lingering moisture from the exiting system will keep relative humidity values above 35%. On Saturday, high pressure will lead to dry air aloft which will mix down to the surface. Minimum relative humidity will drop to between 25 and 30 percent Saturday afternoon with southwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph, producing near critical fire weather conditions. These windy conditions will linger into Sunday, but RH will increase as well so there will be less concern for fire weather. Going into the rest of the weekend and next week, mild and generally dry weather will persist, keeping humidity somewhat lower with lighter winds until low shower chances return on Wednesday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  287 FXUS64 KMRX 152332 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 732 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Record heat is expected today with warm temperatures continuing into Friday. - Rain chances return Friday into Friday night, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west. - Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, ridging is centered to our east with a weak low and stationary frontal boundary located to our north. Some shower activity has continued to our north with low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia. Otherwise, record high temperatures are expected again today with the records and year of occurrence listed below: Record highs Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021) Similarly warm temperatures are expected tonight with the system to the north deepening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes by morning. The frontal boundary associated with the system will approach from the west through the day ahead of a Canadian high. Moisture will be sufficient for low-end rain chances but limited based on moisture and fast timing. The front will move through the area by Friday night, bringing northwesterly flow and much cooler temperatures to the region by Saturday. With lingering low-level moisture, PoPs will persist over the mountains and foothills into the daytime. With 850mb temperatures reaching near to below 0 Celsius some mix with snow is possible across the highest peaks. Otherwise, a breezy day with highs in the 50s is expected for most of the region. Saturday night into Sunday morning, the high will be centered just to our north and east with subsidence, leading to strong radiational cooling conditions. The first frost of the year is very likely for Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains at a minimum. By Sunday, height rises are expected as troughing moves off to the east, allowing temperatures to rise back into the 60s. Another cool morning is expected on Monday with continued subsidence. High pressure will remain in place for the middle of the week with gradual height rises promoting a continued warming trend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR throughout much of the period. There will be some scattered mid level clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL to start. Winds will become light and variable winds. A cold front will begin to approach on Friday with winds turning from the southwest to the northwest and wind speeds increasing to 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots Friday afternoon. MVFR cigs will also accompany the frontal passage arriving by the end of the TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 50 62 / 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 49 59 / 0 30 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 48 59 / 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 80 45 55 / 0 50 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BH  636 FXUS61 KCAR 152341 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 741 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:41PM UPDATE...00z TAF UPDATE. See aviation section below. Rest of the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper trough digging into the upr Midwest will phase with s/wv lifting out of the central Plains this evening and deepen sfc low moving twd the Great Lakes tonight. High pressure will be cresting over the CWA tonight with clear skies and light winds bringing radn/l cooling with mins dipping into the 20s north and lower 30s Downeast. Sfc high will build into ern Canada by daybreak allowing return flow to commence over the region. Isentropic lift looks to bring pcpn into wrn zones around 12z, overspreading remainder of the region within 2-3 hours. Given how quickly precip will move in cannot rule out light snow falling over the north at onset. Accums up to one inch over the higher terrain with a dusting to 1/2 inch possible over northern Aroostook in the morning. As warm advection continues on increasing LLJ temps throughout the cWA will warm and switch snow over to rain over all locations by 19z. Cannot rule out a mix with sleet as it does so but sfc temps should rapidly rise with icing not expected. Temps will climb into the 50s by the evening hours and continue to rise through midnight before CAA moves into the northwest and drops south during the course of the overnight. By daybreak expect that temps may be down into the u20s over the North Woods and around 40 for Downeast. Precip will be on its way out late and will likely end as rain for most of the area. Southerly winds on Friday will gust upwards of 25-30 mph in the afternoon as LLJ kicks in. As cold front moves through expect winds to quickly veer to the northwest with frequent gusts upwards of 30- 35mph overnight, higher in the elevated terrain. Rapidly falling overnight temps will combine with strong winds to produce wind chills in the upper teens and lower 20s over the north by Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the system departs Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through next week as the jet stream generally stays to our north. High pressure will limit precipitation chances through next week and lead to seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE... Aroostook Terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): VFR conditions with SKC initially tonight, with light and variable winds becoming S to SE at 5 kt. Conditions will deteriorate between 10z and 13z as cigs lower to MVFR/IFR with the onset of -SN. Expect vsby to drop to 2-3SM by 15z with -SN and BR. Precipitation transitions to -RA by 15z-18z, with cigs lowering to IFR levels (OVC004-006) and vsby around 4SM. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. LLWS is expected to develop around 17z-18z at 2000 ft with S winds around 35-45 kt. BGR: VFR conditions to start tonight with NW winds at 5 kt shifting to the SE. By 09z, cigs lower to BKN050. MVFR cigs expected by 13z with -RA moving in,dropping further to IFR (OVC008) by 15z with vsby restricted to 4SM in -RA and BR. Conditions lower to IFR/LIFR (OVC005) and 3SM vsby by 19z. SE winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. LLWS will become a factor starting at 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt. BHB: VFR with N winds around 5 kt to start, before winds shift to the SE tonight. -RA begins by 14z with cigs lowering to OVC035. By approx 16z, expect IFR cigs (OVC007) and MVFR vsby (4SM) in -RA, with winds increasing from the SE to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20 kt. Further deterioration to LIFR/IFR (OVC005 to OVC002) and 3SM vsby expected by 19z. S winds will peak around 15-20 kt with gusts approaching 30 kt. LLWS will develop by 19z at 2000 ft with S winds around 50 kt. Friday night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers rapidly improving to VFR from north to south after midnight. NW winds 10-20kts gusting to 30k-35ts. Saturday...MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. NW winds 15 to 20 kt out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10 kt gusting to 20 kt. Sunday night Monday... VFR. S. 5-10 kt winds Monday, S winds 10-15 kt. Gusting 20-25 kt. Monday night-Tuesday... VFR. S. Light winds. VFR Tuesday. Light and variable winds Monday night NW wind 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... Wind and seas will remain below SCA levels into early Friday morning. South winds increase above small craft levels from mid- morning and continue thru Friday night. Seas increase to 4-8 feet Friday evening in swrly swell. Outer waters may approach gales Friday afternoon but confidence too low in occurrence in southerly winds. Gales look more likely in cold air advection late Friday night. Chance of rain through the morning Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels on Monday. Saturday waves 5-8 ft for coastal and outer coastal waters. W/SW winds 15-20 gusts S to SW winds Sunday night 5-10 kt inner coastal and 10-15 kt in the coastal and outer waters. Monday 15-20 kt on the outer waters with gusts up to 25 kt. Monday night into Tuesday SW to NW wind 5-10 kt. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/ARL/JS/CM AVIATION...21/ARL/JS/CM  611 FXUS64 KEWX 152340 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County through Friday morning. - Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas Friday with sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts between 40 and 50 mph. - Much cooler air behind a cold front Friday through Sunday with the first true taste of Fall air. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A busy first 24-36 hours is ahead of us as a powerful cold front swings through South Central Texas tonight and early Friday. Out ahead of this front, continued warm and humid conditions persist this afternoon. Out west, in Val Verde County, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7am Friday as locally heavy rainfall is expected on the tail end of the front as it moves into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches possible. The latest 12Z suite of CAMs and hi-res guidance including the RRFS, REFS, and HREF members indicate that the front will likely move through the region an hour or two faster than the previous forecast. This is a common theme as we get closer to FROPA, as global models typically have a difficult time with shallower cold air masses. While there is a chance for rain for most areas, the greatest concentration of rainfall will be over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau late this evening. Most locations outside of that will see less than 0.5 inches of rain before all is said and done. Winds will quickly pick up behind the front, likely in the 25-30 mph range with gusts of 40-50 mph likely from sunrise Friday through sunset in the evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4am Friday through 7pm Friday to account for these gusty winds. Any rainfall should quickly end by mid-morning Friday followed by skies breaking to partly cloudy by the afternoon. Strong CAA is expected despite some sunshine in the afternoon, and we have adjusted for highs to be reached in the morning before falling through the day as cooler air filters in behind the front. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, with mid to upper 60s/lower 70s everywhere else. Add in the gusty winds, and jackets will most certainly need to have the dust shaken off as we break them back out. Friday night will feature the coolest temperatures since the Spring, as temperatures dip into the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The weekend is shaping up to be rather cool, with high pressure settling in and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. Saturday night will be even colder than Friday night, as strong radiational cooling sends temperatures down in the lower to middle 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and into the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. 850mb temperatures will even dip as low as 2 to 3 C Saturday morning, which is fairly impressive given how warm its been lately. On Sunday, we start to see surface flow and return flow develop out of the east and southeast, particularly late in the day, but highs will still only climb into the 60s and 70s. The slow and steady warming trend continues Monday through the middle to end of next week, but there are signs of increased rainfall towards late week and next weekend. For now, things are dry after the passage of this front through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered TSRA is ongoing along an arc from west of KDRT northeast to KSOA. This convection should slowly sag east and south through 04Z before a strong cold front rapidly pushes activity southward tonight. TSRA along the advancing front is most favored around KDRT, with frontal activity farther east likely to be sparse -SHRA. Expect a shift to north winds and increase to widespread sustained 18-30 kt surface winds with gusts of 35-40 kt following arrival of the front, affecting all area terminals. Low level flow is mostly unidirectional, but a core of 40-45 kt sustained wind will likely be present near FL025 behind the front. MVFR conditions are forecast along and immediately behind the front, but the CIG forecast is more uncertain than usual as post frontal winds may clear out low clouds faster than forecast. CIGs should improve to widespread VFR with convection diminishing by the afternoon. Gusty winds continue through the period, but sustained winds are expected to slowly decrease after 23Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 67 50 69 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 63 46 65 / 50 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 66 49 67 / 80 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 68 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 69 48 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 69 51 70 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 69 51 69 / 40 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 70 52 70 / 40 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...Tran  141 FXUS63 KMQT 152352 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 752 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall has returned and will continue through Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes, bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds across the area. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly gales to 45 kts are expected, creating significant wave heights between 13-17 ft. - Dry air and increasing winds Saturday and Sunday could bring elevated fire weather concerns back across Upper Michigan over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 As a low digging down from Lake Winnipeg phases with another low lifting from the Central Plains this afternoon, radar imagery shows rainfall beginning to move into the far west by Ironwood as of the time of this writing. As the lows become a new, phased low over Lower MI and Lake Huron tonight, expect the rainfall to continue across the rest of the U.P. the rest of this afternoon through this evening, with generally light rainfall seen across the entire area over the next 12 hours. Within the synoptic phase of this system, expect a wetting rainfall across the area as guidance shows generally around half an inch of liquid falling. However, as robust CAA cycles down behind the phased low late tonight through Friday, expect lake enhanced rainfall to pick up over the north wind belts, eventually transitioning over to pure lake effect rain showers by Friday as the low pulls away and delta-Ts in the mid to upper teens keep the lake effect going until high pressure ridging returns Friday night through this weekend. Additional rainfall amounts from the lake enhanced and effect rain showers late tonight through Friday could bring an additional half inch or more of liquid to the north wind belts, with some of the higher elevations in the upslope areas potentially seeing a 15 to 40% chance of seeing an inch and a half of liquid between now and early Friday afternoon (according to the latest REFS run). With high pressure ridging returning for the weekend, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to wrap up by Friday night. One last note on the lake effect showers: there could be a transition over to snowfall as the lake effect showers wrap up Friday night. While accumulations should practically be nothing, it is worth noting that these could be the first snowflakes of the season. With precipitation looking to stay away from the area this weekend through the first half of next week, the WAA seen with the high pressure ridging moving overhead could induce elevated fire weather conditions across the area this weekend, particularly over western Upper MI. This is due to very dry air coming in above the boundary layer (think 925mb level); with mostly sunny skies overhead, robust mixing during the daytime hours could bring RHs down into the 20 percents (lowest on Saturday) and southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph to the sfc (strongest on Sunday). In addition, poor RH recoveries are expected over the western U.P. Saturday night (<80% MaxRH). While the recent rainfall will help alleviate drought concerns, with plenty of dead leaves being added to the sfc and the drought conditions not expected to be completely removed after the rainfall this afternoon through Friday, we could see some critical fire weather concerns this weekend across the area. Therefore, as reminder, you should obey all burn bans in place if you are under one (which can be found at www.dnr.state.mi.us/burnpermits). In addition, avoid power equipment that creates sparks, and for smokers, please properly discard your cigarettes, cigars, etc. While the fire weather danger decreases once we enter the first half ofthe work week next week due to calmer winds, we could see some fairly dry sfc conditions still on Monday and Tuesday (MinRHs down to 30%). Rainfall may finally return by the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 752 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Two low pressure systems phasing over the western Great Lakes Basin has resulted in rich low level moisture and widespread rain over the region. This also lowered conditions at all sites to MVFR this evening. Further deterioration down to IFR is expected with periods of LIFR at SAW/CMX into tonight. Winds shift north overnight which will help start to lift cigs to MVFR at IWD/CMX by Friday morning as the pattern changes over to lake effect. With a colder airmass pressing in, lake effect rain showers and MVFR cigs continue on Friday and winds strengthen. Winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-40 kts by mid morning, strongest at CMX. Winds begin tapering off from west to east Friday afternoon as lake effect precip diminishes and clouds begin to lift/scatter out with drier air moving in. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this afternoon into this evening rapidly increase to high-end northerly gales up to 45 kts Friday morning as robust CAA drops down across the area. Because of the strong winds and waves building up to 13 to 17 ft (highest over southeast lake), a Gale Warning has been issued for the entire lake Friday. In addition, while not expected, there is up to a 15% chance that a storm force gust or two could be seen in the southeastern lake near Marquette and at the tip of the Keweenaw Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. As high pressure ridging returns Friday night, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less late. However, with the pressure gradient over the lake tightening and a LLJ coming in this weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest once again by Saturday to 20 to 30 kts, with the latest REFS showing a 30 to 60% chance for low-end gales over the west half of the lake on Saturday (highest chances along the Bayfield Peninsula followed by the Keweenaw). Gale chances could increase between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale on Sunday as the latest LREF shows up to a 40 to 80% chance of low end gales by then. As the pressure gradient weakens overhead and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less this afternoon into this evening give way to northerly gales up to 35 kts by late Friday morning as strong CAA drops down from Canada across the Upper Great Lakes. While this will immediately be followed up with high pressure ridging moving in Friday night (which will bring lighter winds of 15 kts or less back across the area), with a tightening pressure gradient and LLJ returning to the area for the weekend, expect winds to pick up from the southwest to 20 to 30 kts, with a 20 to 50% chance of gales up to 35 kts possible on Sunday according to the latest LREF. However, once the pressure gradient weakens early next week and high pressure ridging builds once again over the Upper Great Lakes, expect the winds to drop back down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning, remaining that way through the first half of the work week next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-240. Gale Warning from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ241-242-263. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for LSZ245>248-265. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ249>251-266- 267. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...77 MARINE...TAP  941 FXUS64 KJAN 152347 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 647 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant threat for fire danger conditions continue through the weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Friday. - A significant dry cold front will bring gusty northwest winds, worsened fire danger and wildfire concerns to the area tomorrow. - Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through Tonight: Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures will persist. There remains efficient afternoon mixing/low humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for continued Elevated fire danger through early evening. High pressure remains in control and afternoon highs today are topping out in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F before dropping into the lower 60s F tonight. /DC/86/ Friday through midweek: A Fall, dry cold front will move across the area tomorrow. An upper low currently over the Rockies will phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the northern Plains to Mid MS Valley. This will help an amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-45 F). Cannot rule out a rogue shower but overall majority areas will remain dry. Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (72-78 F in the northwestern half of the area, 79-91 F in the southeastern half), before falling dramatically overnight with most locations falling into the 40s F north of highway 84 and to near 50 F along and south of that corridor. With continued drought stressed vegetation, this strong gusty front will likely increase fire danger concerns. The cold front will move into the Delta around daybreak Friday, Interstate 20 around midday and out of the area by early evening. 1030-1040 mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8 mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25 mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35 mph at times. Elevated Fire Weather conditions will persist through the weekend, peeking into Significant ranges Friday when a Red Flag warning will be in effect. A Fire Weather Watch was also issued for Saturday as gusts and low humidity will remain. As the trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard and cuts off the Atlantic seaboard, ridge over the western Gulf will amplify, with the axis over the ArkLaTex. Seasonable, cooler fall temperatures will build areawide into Saturday and Sunday (highs lower 70s F Saturday and through the 70s F Sunday. Lows dip into middle 40s F north of Interstate 20 and upper 40s F to the south). Quiet and dry weather will persist next week, with an Omega block pattern developing (trough over the Baja California and southwest US and another just off the Carolina coast). Low level return flow and deep dry moisture profiles will lead to moderating temperatures (low 80s F early week to mid to upper 80s F by late week) and lows becoming more seasonable. With continued drought, stressed vegetation and afternoon humidity nearing critical levels by mid week (25 to 35 percent), fire danger will likely persist. Additional fire weather graphics will likely be necessary as we approach next week. /DC/86/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the most part. The exception will be with IFR/LIFR fog potential mainly in the lwoer Pine Belt region. A strong cold front will push southward through the entire area Friday, reaching the HBG/PIB area by around 20-21Z. Wind following the frontal passage will pick up quickly and become gusty from the NNW, SHRA activity is not expected. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 85 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 90 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 65 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 63 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/LP/EC  308 FXUS62 KGSP 152357 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 757 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near record high temperatures continue through Friday before a strong cold front brings significantly cooler and well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost and freeze concerns return Saturday night and again Sunday night, mainly in the North Carolina mountains. A gradual warming trend can be expected next week. 2. The strong cold front will also bring gusty winds area-wide as well as northwest flow rain showers Friday afternoon into Saturday. Drier conditions should return by Saturday afternoon, lingering into at least the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Near record high temperatures continue through Friday before a strong cold front brings significantly cooler and well below normal temperatures for the weekend. Frost and freeze concerns return Saturday night and again Sunday night, mainly in the North Carolina mountains. A gradual warming trend can be expected next week. Upper ridging lingers over the Southeast through tonight as a positively tilted upper trough digs across the central United States. This will keep near record highs around today and well above normal lows around tonight. Although the ridge gets shunted eastward as the upper trough approaches the eastern United States on Friday, well above normal highs will return for one last day as warm advection develops ahead of an approaching cold front. KAVL is least likely to see near record highs return again on Friday but KGSP and KCLT may end up near (or may even tie or exceed) their record highs for Friday. The upper trough tracks over the region Friday night into late Saturday, dragging a potent cold front across the Carolinas and northeast Georgia Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This will be the strongest and most impressive airmass change we have seen so far this fall with highs on Saturday expected to be around 20-25 degrees cooler compared to highs on Friday. Highs over the weekend will end up around 10 degrees below normal. The main change from the previous forecast is that NBM is trending cooler for lows each night starting Friday night. Thus, frost and freeze concerns continue to increase over the weekend as clear skies return behind the front and as the pressure gradient relaxes (especially over the mountains). Most locations in the North Carolina mountains should see frost concerns return on both Saturday night and Sunday night, with a freeze looking more likely and more widespread Saturday night. For now freeze concerns Sunday night look to be confined to the higher elevations. Frost and freeze should not be of concern Friday night with cloud cover and gusty winds expected in association with the front (see Key Message 2 for more information). Another upper ridge will attempt to build back over the Southeast Sunday into early Monday but may get shunted just to the south and west the rest of the forecast period as an upper low develops off the East Coast. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the workweek, with above normal highs returning by mid-week. Key message 2: The strong cold front will also bring gusty winds area-wide as well as northwest flow rain showers Friday afternoon into Saturday. Drier conditions should return by Saturday afternoon, lingering into at least the middle of next week. Breezy WSW/SW winds will develop ahead of the front on Friday, turning NW/N behind the front while becoming gusty Friday evening into Saturday. Gusts look to peak overnight Friday into early Saturday morning for most locations but areas along/near the I-77 corridor should see gusts peak Saturday from mid-morning to early evening. With advisory level gusts looking to remain mostly confined to elevations of 4,000+ ft, a Wind Advisory continues to look unlikely as this time due to the isolated nature of >45 mph gusts. Gusts will gradually diminish across the mountains Saturday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts will remain elevated east of the mountains through at least Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Gusts Sunday into Monday east of the mountains will be much lower compared to Friday/Saturday, ranging from 20-25 mph. The cold front will also bring northwest flow rain showers to mainly the NC/TN border Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. However, some of the 12Z CAMs and global models continue to show the potential for some showers surviving east of the mountains along the frontal boundary Friday evening into early Saturday. NBM agrees with this, depicting chance PoPs across the North Carolina Piedmont and foothills as well as the eastern South Carolina Upstate. With cold air advection chasing the moisture, all liquid precipitation looks most likely, although we cannot entirely rule out some brief snow flurries above 5,000 ft. Surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing cold front by Saturday afternoon, lingering through at least the middle of next week. This will allow for the return of dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Outside of another round of mtn valley fog/ low stratus overnight and into the morning, I expect dry, VFR con- ditions to continue thru the 00z TAF period. I have prevailing MVFR restrictions at KAVL beginning overnight, with a TEMPO for IFR/LIFR restrictions from 08 to 12z. Lower restrictions are possible, but confidence remains too low to go more pessimistic. Restrictions at KAVL should dissipate by roughly 14z tomorrow morning. Winds will continue to favor a SLY to SWLY direction thru the morning with some sites going light and VRB to calm at times. SWLY winds strengthen later tomorrow morning/afternoon ahead of a robust cold front. Most sites are expected to see gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range begin by the early afternoon and continue thru the evening. Outlook: Winds turn NW/N and remain gusty behind a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday. Gusts will remain elevated thru Saturday before gradually diminishing over the mtns Saturday night. Low-end gusts will likely linger thru at least Sunday east of the mtns. The front will also bring NW flow rain showers to the NC/TN border Friday afternoon thru late Saturday morning. Some showers may spread east of the mtns, but confidence remains low on whether any of these showers would directly impact any TAF sites besides KAVL. Drier conditions return Saturday afternoon and linger thru the middle of next week. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970 RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR/JPT  294 FXUS63 KIWX 152357 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 757 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An area of rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area into the evening. Scattered stronger showers and storms are expected mid to late evening in advance of a cold front south of US-24. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms through midnight ET mainly south of US Route 24. The main threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts, but confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. The strongest wind gusts are expected downwind of Lake Michigan across Berrien and La Porte Counties where gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday afternoon and evening. - There are chances of frost both Friday night and Saturday night. - After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures will warm back above normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low level warm/moist advection is increasing this afternoon as a mid/upper ridge axis shifts across the eastern Great Lakes. Low level flow will continue to strengthen over the next several hours with some pockets of better low level moisture convergence associated with speed convergence overspreads the area. Surface low pressure across NE Missouri will deepen some as a pair of upper level short waves advance east from central CONUS. The first of these waves is across the Central Plains this afternoon and will rapidly get ingested northeast into stronger west- southwest flow downstream of a more potent/dynamic upper level trough currently digging across the Dakotas. This evolution still looks inline to support a rapidly northward lifting warm front through this evening with a sharp increase in low level moisture and northward shift of pool of better instability from southeast MO into southern IN/western KY. It still appears as though locations in local area south of US Route 24 will have a brief window of weak MLCAPES (100-300 J/kg) in the 01Z-05Z timeframe tonight. Some weak prefrontal trough forcing may contribute to more scattered convection after initial bands of rain showers later this afternoon/early evening, with an environment potentially with some near sfc based instability to work with. While instability magnitudes will remain quite weak, robust low level and deep layer shear profiles will build in from the southwest, so will still have to be watching for some isolated strong-severe potential mid-late evening and possibly into early overnight for areas south of US-24. The more favorable combination of CAPE/shear still looks to be displaced south from southern IL to central IN where some isolated tornado potential cannot be ruled out given low level shear profiles. Confidence in severe weather potential as far north as local area remains on the low side, but will continue to monitor far southern locations later this evening/early overnight. A good deal of cloud cover/limited instability and stronger forcing displaced west and northwest of local area may be limiting factors for isolated severe threat. Sfc low pressure will continue to deepen Friday morning across far SE Ontario/Quebec as the more potent northern Plains trough approaches the western Great Lakes. Low level height gradient, while strong on Friday, does not look as strong as several forecast cycles ago as a secondary west-east low level trough axis will be dropping into the region Friday afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will look reasonable for most of the area with an exception of potential 40+ mph gusts closer to Lake Michigan shoreline. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Berrien MI and LaPorte IN Counties for Friday18Z to Saturday 03Z. The potential strongest winds look to be in the 18Z-00Z period following secondary trough passage, with warm lake waters helping post-frontal mixing. After 00Z confidence in stronger wind gusts begins to diminish somewhat as some thermal modification of mass fields could lead to weak lake aggregate trough and a slackening of the gradient. This process should prolong the potential of lake effect rain showers into Friday night across NW IN and perhaps far SW Lower MI. The strong negative upper height anomaly will be progressive through the region with expansive longwave upper ridge spreading across central CONUS Saturday. A few nights of frost potential still look on track. On Friday night there could be an area across central portions of the forecast area that may be situated between lingering lake effect clouds to the west, and lingering better mixing to the east to allow for some patchy frost. Saturday night/Sunday AM will also feature patchy frost potential, with best chances across approx SE 2/3rd of the area as weak return southwest flow develops across western/southern Great Lakes. Much of next work week looks much quieter weather-wise as primary storm track remains across southern Canada while longwave ridging dominates central part of the country. Confidence is high in gradual warm up to above normal levels during the early to middle portions of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 753 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Light showers overspreading the evening with mainly MVFR ceilings/vis expected, with potential dips to IFR within heavier showers. Isolated storms are still possible at KFWA, but as of this writing it seems they may focus further south and east of the terminal so left them out for now. Expect continued on and off shower activity through the day Friday as a secondary trough moves through. Otherwise, increasing winds shifting from S-SE to W-NW through the period, with gusts up to around 25-30 knots (strongest at KSBN). && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for INZ103-203. OH...None. MI...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...MCD  347 FXUS63 KLMK 152358 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 758 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong storms are possible this evening but conditional upon surface heating, and threat will diminish after sunset. * Cold front pushes through early Friday morning, with breezy winds, cold temps, and spotty showers as it passes. * Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, bringing a chance for frost to the Bluegrass and low-lying valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ***********Today's Severe Potential************************* Since the last discussion, SPC has expanded the marginal risk to the remainder of the S IN CWA counties, with a slight just clipping Washington, Orange, Dubois, and Scott counties. While the upper- level wind profile and shear is favorable for a wind and low-end tornado threat, this risk is entirely based on the potential of storms to form. At the moment, it does not appear that we have had or will have enough surface heating for these storms to form. However, if clearing occurs across Southern Illinois and Indiana within the next two hours, this threat may become slightly more realistic. This threat should quickly clear out after sunset as we lose the surface-based energy to sustain it. ***********Overnight and Friday's Cold Front******************* Bowling Green has broken their high record for today, although they are likely the only ones. Cloud cover has kept the rest of the CWA in a fog/drizzle/showery environment today, pushing the high temps toward the low 80s instead. Overnight, our minimum temperatures will occur close to sunrise. There should be a northwest to southeast gradient, with temperatures in southern IN in the mid-50s and south central KY in the mid-60s. We expect the cold front to push through in the same direction, with it passing over S IN around 08z. This means that tomorrow's max temps should also occur just after sunrise, with highs near 60 for S IN, the Bowling Green Area, and the Louisville area. Highs are likely to be closer to the upper 60s for the Bluegrass and low 70s for Lake Cumberland area. With this cold front, expect to see a wind switch from southwesterly flow to northwesterly flow. It will be breezy tomorrow, with sustained speeds in the 13-15 kt range and gusts up to 25kts. Winds will persist into the overnight hours. A light line of showers is also likely, which should clear out by tomorrow evening. Tomorrow night's min temperatures will be around the 40 degree mark. **************This weekend's fall weather********************** Saturday should see some seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the 50s. Breezy conditions should persist through the day on Saturday, with wind direction shifting to northeasterly throughout the day as as the surface Low pushes off the coast and a surface high sets up over northern Indiana. Overnight Saturday night, winds should slow down. Frost is certainly not out of the question early Sunday morning, but winds are the limiting factors. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s across the region for overnight lows. We do warm back up a bit on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s as the High pressure pushes towards Pennysylvania, where it stagnates over the mid-Appalachians. This will lead to a continues wind shift, to the point where we likely have southerly flow Sunday evening, albeit light flow. Expect chlly overnight lows again, in the 30s. The stagnant high pressure should keep us seasonable for the end of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Expect mostly light winds throughout. However, clear skies should be visible for some gorgeous fall sunsets. && .AVIATION /00ZTAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 758 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ahead of a cold front, approaching from the northwest, a line of showers and thunderstorms is moving east across central and southern Indiana. These are expected to remain north of HNB and SDF, but isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop during the overnight. Chances are too low to include in the TAFs. Later tonight into tomorrow morning, as the front begins to move through southern Indiana and central Kentucky, winds will veer from the southwest towards the northwest and increase in strength. Gusts around 20-25 knots are expected to remain though the day. Ceilings are also expected to fall into VFR levels, around 1,500 feet, at all area TAF sites. LLWS is also expected tonight for a couple of hours at SDF and LEX from a developing low level jet ahead of the front. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPH AVIATION...KDW