984 FXUS65 KRIW 152203 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 403 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some lingering clouds into the afternoon but mostly sunny and remaining on the cool side. Breezy winds widespread, highest across Johnson County. - Clear and cold tonight, with lows in the 20s for all areas. Freeze Warnings have been issued for those are that have not already had a morning freeze. - Dry and milder through the upcoming weekend with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IR continues to show some scattered mid level clouds across eastern counties in wake of the previous storm system, diminishing and push further east into the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, around seasonable to just below average for this time of year in mid October. Winds have increased for the remainder of the afternoon as leeside cyclogenesis has occurred off the northern Colorado Rockies, tightening the gradient through Sweetwater to Fremont and Johnson Counties (strongest up to 30 to 35 mph), and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. There winds will diminish towards sunset with radiational cooling under mainly clear skies into the overnight hours. This will allow temperatures to drop below freezing east of the Divide, many a hard freeze around of below 28 degrees. The upgraded Freeze Warning goes into affect after midnight through 9AM Friday morning before temperatures rise there after. Warming and dry trend starts Friday afternoon and over the weekend into early next week as ridging builds in from the south and southwest with increased convergence aloft. The next system for Tuesday through Thursday next week still looking to push through but details a bit uncertain at this time, with newest model trends have back up on the QPF (both valley rain and mountain snow). Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days as this system pushes near. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The H5 trough continues to exit to the southeast, and is gradually taking the clouds and precip with it. As of current writing time, the only remaining light rain is confined to Natrona County, and continues to draw to the southeast as well. Most light rain should be complete by 6AM, but light sprinkles may continue on Casper Mountain for a couple more hours. Skies will clear through the rest of the day, and with good cold air advection still in place, highs will struggle to reach the 50s. This will be accompanied by a modest northerly breeze, making for a brisk autumn day. Areas across Johnson County will hold some more of the influence of the sfc low gradient, so winds will be higher through the day, gusting 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Watch for cross winds along the I-90 corridor. Winds will die off quickly after sunset as high pressure sweeps in. This sets the stage for the first freeze of the season for most of the state. Most areas will fall into the 20s for several hours tonight. The only inhibiting factor may be enough of a breeze in the Wind River Basin to mix things enough to limit the overall timing of the freeze, but this airmass is cold enough to overcome most of this. Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across central Wyoming, where freezing temperatures have not yet been reached. The main pattern this weekend is a broad H5 ridge across the Rockies, bringing moderating temperatures and deflecting the storm track back into southern Canada. The main impact will be which way the winds are from. Winds Saturday will be from the southwest, bringing the warmer air back into the region. Sunday a weather system passes across southern Canada, switching winds back from the north. While no cold air will return with these winds, it will be enough to bring temperatures back to near normal around 60 degrees. The next weather impact across western Wyoming still looking to be sometime Tuesday, when the ridge is broken down by a trough along the Rockies, bringing more moisture back from the southwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 402 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There is high confidence in dry conditions through at least 00Z Friday. Breezy north winds at KWRL are expected through 01Z, at the latest, before becoming 12kts or less. Winds at all other terminals are forecast to be light (12kts or less) the entire TAF period. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of fog or low cloud development beginning around 12Z Friday at KJAC, KRIW, KRKS, KPNA, and KBPI. There is no mention in TAF at this time given the very low confidence. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt  099 FXAK69 PAFG 152206 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 206 PM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... -A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits and Eagle Summits. Gusty winds at about 30 to 40 mph along with snowfall could reduce visibility to 1/2 of a mile at times. *The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 am Thursday to 10 am Saturday. -Isolated and scattered snow showers are possible throughout the day, leading to some possible accumulations. Gusty winds along with falling snow could result in lower visibility in higher elevations. *Snowfall accumulations are likely to be up to 1 inch south and east of Fairbanks, with up to 3 inches possible in elevated areas north of Fairbanks. -Cooler conditions are expected this weekend. Highs drop into the low 30s, and lows drop into the upper teens/low 20s. West Coast and Western Interior... -Rain/snow showers are expected to continue, with low stratus, and patchy morning fog throughout the week. -Gusts could reach up to 35 mph for most of the West Coast through Thursday, rapidly weakening Friday evening. -Temperatures cool through the weekend. Lows fall into the upper teens, with highs in the lower 20s for the Western Interior. Lows fall into the 20s, with highs in the 30s for the West Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range... -Snow and gusty winds could create periods of blowing snow, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the Eastern North Arctic Coast from 4pm Thursday to 4pm Friday. *Wind gusts could reach 40 mph. *Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be up to 1 inch by Friday. -Light snow is expected to move into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night, and then track to the North Slope/Arctic Coast Friday afternoon, and persist through the weekend *1 to 3 inches of snow expected, with higher terrain seeing higher amounts. -Wind gusts will pick up Thursday, with them peaking at about 35 to 40 mph on Friday, rapidly weakening into Saturday morning. *Visibility may be restricted due to the development of fog. && .SYNOPSIS... A messy pattern of multiple low pressure systems will keep Northern Alaska's weather active through the weekend. No major impacts are expected with periods of light snow and breezy winds through the weekend. Some elevated Interior areas and parts of the Arctic Coast may see periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow through Friday and into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... At the start of the forecast period, Thursday, the pattern consists of ridging that has built in from Canada across the Interior and large low pressure systems over the North Pole and near the Alaska Peninsula. These 3 features and their interactions dominate the weather for the next few days. Through Thursday and Friday the low near the Alaska Peninsula moves northeast towards South Central Alaska. As it approaches the area, the ridge is pushed east into Canada and several waves of precipitation are expected to push north over the Interior bringing periods of snow and gusty winds to parts of the Interior late Thursday through Saturday. Given how messy the system becomes as it passes over the Alaska Range, precipitation chances will be possible across the region, but considerable gaps where rain and snow falls are expected. Areas with upslope movement, especially along south facing slopes in the higher terrain of the Interior and Brooks Range are most likely to see notable snowfall amounts. The low pushes through the Southern Interior and towards Canada through Saturday allowing a weak ridge to fill the void behind it leading to clearer and calmer conditions Sunday. Simultaneously a low rotating around the larger North Pole low moves into the Chukchi Sea from the West. It and the weak ridge press against each other. This will keep the northern low from getting much closer to the Arctic Coast limiting impacts. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, late Sunday, troughing pushes against a ridge over the western portions of the state. Chances of snow continue across the Western North Slope as a low approaches the Chukchi Sea Sunday through Monday. Another large low pressure system approaches the western tip of the Aleutians late Saturday and continues east towards Bristol Bay through Monday. A surface low moving through the pattern is expected to pull this larger system south of the Alaska Peninsula early Tuesday enabling the overall system to strengthen. This next low pressure system is then expected to take a similar track north and east through the Gulf of Alaska and south central towards the Southern Interior Tuesday through Wednesday. Current models are expecting this low to maintain its organization better than the low from this current week, which may allow for greater snowfall accumulations across the Interior. Accumulations and other potential impacts are still uncertain at this time. We will continue to monitor this storm for any hazardous weather. Coastal Hazard Potential... The storm systems expected late this week and midweek next week are expected to be too far south to cause any considerable water level rises along the coast from Hooper Bay north. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ832- 834. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-806- 807-814-853-854-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ805- 852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-850-857. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Donner/Stokes SYNOPSIS.......Stokes SHORT TERM.....Stokes LONG TERM......Stokes COASTAL........Stokes  643 FXUS63 KPAH 152214 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 514 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon mainly for areas in the vicinity of and north of I-64. The main threats would be damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado. - Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. - Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 510 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front will continue to slowly lift north this afternoon as its parent sfc low moves northeast through northern MO and its attendant cold front approaches from the west. Shower and storms are expected to begin to redevelop over northwestern portions of the area over the next few hours. SPC upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over our northern most counties in southern IL and southwest IN for this afternoon. This is based primarily on the potential for destabilization due to daytime heating over the next few hours, and excessively high PWATs that are greater than 2" causing the potential for damaging winds. The main threats this afternoon would be damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado. Looking into model soundings there could be a potential for a few low-topped supercells or "spinny showers" which could result in the possibility of a "sneaky" tornado or two. Will need to keep a close eye on the evolving situation this afternoon. The severe threat exists mainly till sunset as conditions wane quickly after that, however showers may continue for several more hours. A cold front then moves through the area tonight and brings us a big cool down for tomorrow and Saturday. Highs will be 25-30 degrees cooler tomorrow as they struggle to reach 60 degrees, and will hover right around 60 on Saturday. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest tomorrow with gusts to around 30 mph at times. Saturday night shows a pretty good potential for a first frost across a majority of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. Temperatures then begin to moderate Sunday with sfc high pressure to the northeast and southerly return flow. Expect a gradual warming trend through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 510 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Actuve convection exists on the nose of a lifting warm sector and is focused between KMVN-KEVV. A trailing line of cu still seen on sunsetting visible imagery may allow for additional development, but will only last 1-3 hours past nightfall as fueling is lost; maintained prob30 groupings for said potential convection and associated restrictions to cigs/vsbys, then transitioned to lower bases/cigs overnight as the parent cold front makes its approach and passage. This will result in shifting winds to nwly with some gusts into the 20s kts, continuing into/thru tmrw with stubborn to yield bases/cigs even if/as lifting thru MVFR toward low end VFR. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  881 FXUS64 KLZK 152220 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 520 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 -Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state through early Friday morning -Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for Friday -Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold front will drop SE into the state this evening...with some isolated/widely scattered SHRA possible across the NRN/WRN sections overnight into early Fri morning. While dominant VFR conditions should be seen...some reduced flight conditions are possible with this precip/FROPA...mainly across NRN terminals. Further south...expect mainly the wind shift and increasing winds behind the front as it progresses SE...especially during the daylight hrs on Fri. Some gusts over 25 kts are possible from the NW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 52 64 44 63 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 45 57 40 61 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 53 67 44 66 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 58 66 46 66 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 62 69 48 67 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 48 59 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 Newport AR 55 65 45 64 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 51 65 43 66 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR 54 66 44 64 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 58 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZKWATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...62  994 FXUS66 KPDT 152224 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 324 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Gusty conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley tomorrow afternoon with elevated fire risk. 3. Trough develops through area beginning Monday with the potential for rainfall along Blue Mountains && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies continue to be present over the region thanks to continued upper-level ridging along the US West Coast. Current guidance timing suggests that the ridge will remain present in the region throughout the rest of today and tomorrow, transitioning to zonal flow alongside a shortwave trough tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Said shortwave trough will likely (greater than 50% chance) be positioned along the US- Canada border, limiting precipitation chances through the region (less than 20%). As the primary trough axis continues to move eastward, deterministic guidance highlights a favorable surface pressure gradient across the Blue Mountains for gusty south/southeast winds tomorrow into Saturday morning, especially around the Grande Ronde Valley. NBM ensemble probabilities for this time show a high chance (around 75%) of localized sustained winds in excess of 20 mph, with a moderate chance (up to 50%) of local gusts in excess of 40mph in the Grande Ronde Valley. Given the windy conditions in these regions, as well as RH values around 15-20% for much of the Blue Mountains in the afternoon, an elevated fire risk is present for these regions for Friday afternoon into the evening. As zonal flow continues throughout the weekend, an upper level trough will begin to develop offshore Sunday night through Monday, moving into the PacNW region Monday night into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is confident (greater than 75% chance) that a trough will occur, however significant variability still exists regarding trough strength and timing. Because of this uncertainty in trough depth, there is low confidence (around 30-40%) in current rainfall amounts. In scenarios where the trough is deeper, with a closed low developing near California, rainfall is limited to non-wetting amounts along the Blue Mountains. In scenarios with a more northward low or open wave setup, wetting rainfall in these regions is more likely with the improved moisture flow pattern. Lingering rainfall is possible into Wednesday and Thursday as the trough moves eastward and weakens, however the same model variability concerns and low confidence still applies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Clear skies to start with few high clouds starting towards the 08- 12z period for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, with gusts at 15KT for KDLS and KBDN. KRDM shows highest gusts at 20kt. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/71 AVIATION...07/95  676 FXUS62 KMFL 152242 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 642 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected for Southeast Florida mainly late morning through midday. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across the region for the end of this week with maximum heat index values in the 100-105F range. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No major changes to the near term forecast. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed around the lake region early this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should increase mid to late afternoon into the early evening across SW FL along the Gulf coast sea breeze. Overnight conditions will be dry over most of South FL with some occasional coastal showers along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the end of this week, surface high pressure will be set up over the western Atlantic to end the week along with a mid-level ridge propagating from the southeastern US to the offshore western Atlantic waters. This will occur in tandem with a synoptic scale trough amplifying across the central US. As a result of the mid- level high shifting further east, low-level and mid-level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly and usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2 inches or slightly more) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the surface high pressure over the western Atlantic setting up an easterly wind regime across the area, the most widespread showers and storms should focus across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned, while some isolated to scattered showers and storms form over the east coast metro areas mainly between late morning and midday. Some storms may contain stronger wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall, but overall parameters are lacking in terms of strong convection potential as well as low flooding risk. However, an isolated occurrence of poor drainage urban flooding cannot be entirely ruled out. Flow will shift a little more southeasterly on Friday as the trough over the central US begins to advect towards the northeast US and pushes the ridge over the Southeast offshore. This southerly flow pattern will support ongoing deep moisture advection, and with low level out of a SE/ESE direction, the focus for showers and storms on Friday will be across both interior and SW Florida, and perhaps stretching into Palm Beach county with PoPs in these areas in the 70- 85% range. Flow will be a bit weaker on Friday compared to Thursday, so there will be a higher risk for flooding impacts on Friday. High temperatures for the end of this week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated moisture will keep dew points and corresponding heat index values elevated in the 100-105F range as well, posing moderate to major HeatRisk across the region as we typically don't see this level of heat this late in the season. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moving into the weekend, the speed of a propagating frontal boundary off of the trough that is swinging across the central and eastern US will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. Ensembles plus much of the deterministic guidance are generally coming together at this point with the front pushing into central and perhaps the northernmost portions of the South Florida forecast area Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. The steadiest rain would be expected directly ahead of the front, leading to the most widespread rainfall likely to occur on Saturday before the front pushes out the deeper moisture from portions of the region. Potential rainfall amounts are still heavily uncertain, but the latest 90th percentile 24-hour QPF is between 2-4" for Saturday and lower for Sunday, suggesting that even in a worst case scenario we may only need to be concerned for localized flooding. Nevertheless, we still need another day or two to get a more accurate perception of how much rain is possible in different time spans this weekend. Following the front stalling out late this weekend and into early next week, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet, but less widespread rain is expected as we move into next week and extending into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Easterly winds 5-10kts overnight becoming ESE 10-15 kts after 15Z Friday. An afternoon westerly breeze is expected at APF. Scattered coastal showers are possible along the east coast metro overnight. VCTS at APF during the afternoon and early evening hours Friday. Brief flight restrictions and erratic winds possible in and near thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected across the local waters for the end of this week. Winds will shift to the north/north- northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north. This will coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day as well, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 78 88 / 30 30 30 90 West Kendall 78 90 77 87 / 20 30 30 90 Opa-Locka 79 90 77 88 / 30 30 30 90 Homestead 79 90 77 88 / 20 30 30 80 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 77 87 / 40 40 30 90 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 77 87 / 40 40 30 90 Pembroke Pines 78 90 77 88 / 30 40 30 90 West Palm Beach 78 89 76 86 / 50 60 40 90 Boca Raton 78 88 77 86 / 50 50 30 90 Naples 75 89 75 84 / 30 40 40 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF  697 FXUS63 KGRR 152243 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 643 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Fall Storm System to bring Wind, Rain and Lightning to the area Low pressure is centered just east of Des Moines Iowa at 18Z with widespread rain located to the north of the low over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Two upper shortwaves from both the northern stream and southern stream are phasing off to the west over the upper midwest at this time. As such, the low will deepen as it moves east through the Lower Peninsula. Widespread/deep lift will sweep through Southwest Lower Michigan between roughly 400pm this afternoon and 400am tonight. The bulk of the rain will fall during this period. The lift is driven by the right entrance region of an upper jet that will be located overhead which will drive a low level response of strong isentropic lift and significant moisture transport. Sounding climatology for DTX shows the max PWATs for today being 1.55 inches. We will be north of 1.75 inches this evening. Given abnormal moisture in the depth of the column tonight we expect efficient rainfall production. Most areas will see 0.50 to 1.00 amounts. Amounts may exceed an inch up towards Ludington. Given low river levels and amounts that are not overly concerning not expecting flooding issues. Thunderstorms are a possibility this evening, especially along I-94 between 800pm and 200am. The instability is not strong, several hundred j/kg, but given the dynamics, thunder is a distinct possibility. Wind is the next concern and we have Gale Warnings out on the big lake. As for the land, we feel we will stay just below wind advisory criteria with most gusts in the 30-40 mph range. It will very much feel like fall with a wet, windy and rainy system working through the state. The second portion of the event will come on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps south around daybreak. Showers will accompany the front and usher in cold enough air for lake effect rain. Midday into the afternoon CAPE over the lake is maximized, pushing towards 1,000 j/kg. We are likely looking at thunderstorms off the lake given the significant moisture boost this time of the year via the warmer water. Some diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible inland as well given the cold air aloft. The most concentrated rain will be working down the length of the lake though in northerly flow. - Rather benign weather expected this weekend into early next week Quiet weather conditions will persist over the weekend into early next week as high pressure dominates the scene both at the surface and aloft. The main item of note is that frost and freezing temperatures are possible both Friday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Deterioration of conditions has been a bit slower than originally forecast, however greater radar signatures over the lake suggest deterioration to IFR, potentially LIFR at times. Can't rule out widespread LIFR if conditions overperform but current trends suggest TEMPO is the way to go for now. A brief break in precipitation is expected early from 05z-09z roughly as winds go from southeast to northwest (also resulting in a period of LLWS) before lake effect rain showers ramp up into the morning Friday. In addition, wind gusts climb to 25-30 knots with the wind shift. Lake effect rain showers then continue through mid to late Friday afternoon when winds go northerly keeping higher coverage over Lake Michigan. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A deepening fall storm system is still expected to pass through the Great Lakes in the next 24-36 hours. The low will reach 995mb to 999mb Friday morning and early afternoon as it passes east from Ontario into Quebec. To the west a stout high pressure will be sliding south through the plains at a magnitude of 1040+ mb. Even though the distance between these two features is fairly wide, a tightening pressure gradient will reach its peak on Friday. The strongest winds will likely occur from midday into the evening hours with Gales likely along with the possibility of some Storm Force gusts. 40-45 knot gales look very reasonable over the water. Given the flow is north or even just east of north, the largest waves will be out over the open waters. That said, we are looking at 8 to 13 footers in the nearshore waters. Given along shore flow and water levels (near 579ft) that are 2.5 feet below advisory (582.5ft) we are not expecting any lakeshore flood issues in our area. Small Craft Advisory begins this evening and lasts into Friday morning. A Gale Warning is in place from Friday morning into Friday night. Two items we will be watching are... 1) do we need to jump into the Gale earlier as some models are showing gales in the 06Z-12Z time frame tonight and 2) how much will the wind touch storm force tomorrow. Do not see either as a high probability at this point and will leave the headlines unchanged. Waterspouts will be possible over the lake late tonight and Friday morning before the wind truly ramps up. The stronger winds tends to shear apart waterspouts. Much of this activity will remain over the lake given northerly flow. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Duke  122 FXUS63 KIND 152254 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 654 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and few thunderstorms expected this evening - Isolated severe storms are possible later this afternoon into the evening with potential for isolated damaging winds and tornadoes - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph late tonight into Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface low pressure center quickly lifting towards the northeast corner of Illinois, continues to slowly drag its warm/quasi- stationary front northward across southwestern central Indiana. Destabilization across the lower Wabash Valley has produced a quasi- linear line of strong RWs/TRWs along a SW-NE axis from 20 miles WSW of the SW tip of Knox County...up through Sullivan, and now into Clay/Owen Counties. 2115Z ACARS sounding out of KIND reveals 20-25KT of 0-1km wind shear. While low-level shear not as impressive to south/west along the convective line...these cells are moving into an environment with about 2000 J/kg CAPE...and increasing trends in 0-1 km parameters, specifically SRH around 300 and Bulk shear over 30KT. Strong to possibly severe cells over Lawrence, Wabash and Edwards Counties in IL will approach Knox County IN while likely intensifying... amid the northern portion of the axis of highest shear, and entering the area of greater low-level shear. The most favorable region for storm maintenance/further development into this evening...will be south of the slowly-advancing boundary, that is Sullivan County to Lawrence County and south. Slight shift north of these zones is possible with frontal advancement...but expect sub-severe cells more likely towards Indy Metro and east later this evening given significantly less instability near/north of I-74 corridor. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon through Friday Night... Current surface analysis depicts a low pressure system approaching from the west while an associated warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are now beginning to push into central Indiana. Additional convective development can be expected as the disturbance pushes across the area later today into tonight. Surface observations suggest the warm front is near far southern portions of central Indiana where dewpoints are now in the lower 70s. The warm front will continue lifting northward towards the I-70 corridor. Low-level theta-e advection combined with diurnal heating is expected to promote MLCAPE values of 750 to as high as 1250 J/KG locally later this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile aloft, a mid-level jet streak from the parent trough continues to shift eastward promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Increasing deep-layer shear in addition to modest destabilization could result in isolated severe thunderstorms. Effective shear values exceeding 40 kt are expected which favors the potential for supercells or organized storm clusters. Enlarging low-level veering hodographs from the warm front lifting north could support isolated tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts also appear possible with organized storm clusters. One caveat limiting confidence for the overall severe weather threat is uncertainty on the degree of low-level buoyancy. Forecast soundings from the latest CAMs depict poor lapse rates and relatively long-skinny CAPE profiles. This suggest updraft strength may be limited. However, even weak to modest low-level buoyancy in the favorable kinematic environment could support isolated damaging wind gusts or tornadoes so mesoscale trends will be monitored closely. Modest instability will greatly limit the threat for severe hail though sub-severe hail still appears possible. Expect a cold front to move through late tonight advecting cooler- drier air into the area. Look for precipitation chances to diminish from west to east during the late overnight. Increasingly breezy conditions are likely due to a tightening pressure gradient behind the departing front and steepening low-level lapse rates. Wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph should be common into Friday with sporadic gusts as high as 40 mph. Steepening lapse rates and marginal low- level moisture ahead of a backdoor cold front moving through late Friday will promote scattered convective showers. The parent mid- upper level trough overhead by this point should provide additional forcing for convection. Scattered lingering showers are possible early Friday night, mainly across northwest portions of central Indiana, before the aforementioned system shifts further east. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Friday night due to the additional shot of cooler air. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in sheltered locations into Saturday morning, but breezy conditions should mostly limit the threat elsewhere. Saturday through the middle of next week... A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 548 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. - SCT to ISO Showers and storms possible this evening. - Wind shifts to NW through the period. - Wind gusts 15-20kt tonight, over 30kt after 15Z Friday. Discussion: MVFR with isolated IFR cigs were found across the TAF sites. An area of showers with warming tops were found near IND and OKK, moving quickly NE. A cold front was still found to the west amid a moderate pressure gradient. Very warm and moist air still remained in place across central Indiana with dew points in the middle and upper 60s. Warm air continued to be advected north across our area on southerly winds ahead of the cold front. HRRR suggests sct/iso shra or tsra possible this evening ahead of the cold front. Confidence/timing for any of this is low and have used a VCSH mention for now through the expected fropa later tonight. Cold air advection and trapped lower level moisture will keep MVFR cigs across Central Indiana tonight and again on Friday. However a moderate pressure gradient in place will allow for possible 30 knt northwest wind gusts through the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...AGM AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...White/Melo  265 FXUS64 KHUN 152258 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 558 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue today with more record setting warmth, and Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts across portions of the Tennessee Valley. - Colder conditions returns Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The heat continued across the greater Tennessee Valley, with area high temperatures so far rising into the lower 90s. In Huntsville, the high has warmed to 90 degrees, exceeding the previous record of 88 last set in 1924/1938/1947. The temperature in Muscle Shoals may reached 91 degrees, which will tie their old record last set in 2015. There is another hour or so of more heating potential before cooling in the late afternoon commences. One last night of mild conditions are expected as lows cool into the low/mid 60s with light SE winds. A cold front currently located from southern Wisconsin to across the central Plains to the Texas Big Bend is forecast to move SE, and reach NW Alabama around daybreak Fri. Showers are not expected into the early morning with the front. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The warm spell that we have been experiencing as of late will come to an end Friday morning, as a cold front sweeps in NW-SE manner across the Valley. This boundary will be moisture starved (with most of the dynamics and moisture well to our north and NE), thus am expecting a "dry" frontal passage. Newer output from the ECMWF was hinting at light showers mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor Fri afternoon. The front should be felt as SW winds will become NW, increasing to 15-20 mph with some gusts over 25 mph. Highs should range from the mid 70s NW Alabama where the cool air arrives earlier, to around 80 over the eastern areas where it arrive later. What could be called "blustery" conditions are expected Fri night as temperatures fall. Temperatures in the early evening should be only in the lower 60s, but will fall into the upper 40s by the late evening. A stiff NW-N flow of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will make for uncomfortable conditions for those participating in outdoor activities. The colder trend will continue under mostly sunny skies Sat, with highs only into the lower 60s. Northerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected into the early afternoon, then should gradually diminish towards the early evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderationin temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid 40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with a low chance of MVFR conditions Friday afternoon if showers form near either site. Confidence is not high enough to include this is the TAF package. Additionally, wind gusts will pick up early Friday with gusts up to 15-25 kts from the NW. Beyond the TAF period, wind shear looks likely. However, this will be added in a future update. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...HC  282 FXUS64 KOHX 152259 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 559 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend. - The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning. - There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A warm front remains situated to the immediate north of Middle Tennessee. There are a few radar echoes showing up across Kentucky, but rain chances across the mid state are negligible. A strong cold front is expected to blast through the region tomorrow and bring significantly cooler temperatures. Despite the strong temperature gradient between air masses, only low rain chances and minuscule rainfall amounts are expected with tomorrow's fropa. Indeed, the cold front will come through dry for most locations. But the temperatures that await on the other side are going to feel marvelous. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 While we're looking at one more day of record-breaking warmth today, many spots are likely to wake up to frost Sunday morning, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau and other traditional "cool spots" around the area. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across Middle Tennessee well into next week. Temperatures will warm up gradually after this weekend, but we don't expect to stray too far above seasonal norms even by the end of the week. Meanwhile, after Friday, there are no more weather-producing systems coming our way any time soon. Therefore, the worsening drought conditions that we are experiencing will continue to worsen, at least in the near-term. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR will continue through this evening with light SSW winds. A cold front will move in late tonight into Friday morning bringing an extended period of gusty NNW winds to 22KT and widespread MVFR cigs. Isolated light showers are possible after frontal passage, but coverage and impacts appear too limited to include in tafs. Cigs are expected to lift to VFR late Friday for CKV/BNA/MQY, but a lot of clouds and gusty winds will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 69 46 62 / 0 20 0 0 Clarksville 57 65 43 62 / 10 20 0 0 Crossville 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 20 0 Columbia 63 72 44 63 / 0 20 0 0 Cookeville 62 71 44 57 / 0 20 10 0 Jamestown 62 72 42 55 / 0 30 30 0 Lawrenceburg 63 73 44 61 / 0 20 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0 Waverly 58 64 45 60 / 0 20 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13  973 FXUS63 KDDC 152248 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 548 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A freeze watch is in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning. - Cool and windy weather is expected through Friday, with below freezing readings and lighter winds by Saturday morning. - A warming trend is forecast Sunday and into next week, with highs near 80 by Tuesday or Wednesday. - The next chance of rain is late next week or next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Surface high pressure will build across the high plains through Saturday morning, with brisk north winds at 15-30 mph. There may be a lull in the winds this evening with the loss of daytime mixing. Highs in the 50s look on track for Friday. As surface high pressure settles across the high plains Friday night, clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the 20s in far western Kansas and lower 30s in south central Kansas. Thus, a freeze watch was issued for all of central and southwest Kansas with the exception of Barber County. Surface high pressure is forecast to slowly move off to the east this weekend, with a warming trend expected; and this warmup will persist next week. A weak upper level trough is predicted to approach the high plains by early Monday; but given the lack of low to mid level moisture, rain is not expected. Highs are forecast to reach near or above 80 by the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There will be a very slow return of moisture next week and into next weekend as a strong upper level trough amplifies over the western USA, resulting in lee troughing and south winds. However, the rich moisture return will not occur until the upper level trough gets closer. Rain chances increase by next Friday and Saturday as the trough approaches the high plains. But even then there is uncertainty in how much rich moisture will make it into western Kansas. Given that the southern and central plains will be in the warm sector, with no source for cold air initially, it remains to be seen if enough potential instability will be present for thunderstorms. If the system slows down and colder air does progress southward ahead of it, then rain chances would be higher; but this is a low probability scenario. Bottom line is that the conservative route on rain chances seems appropriate given the uncertainty. And we are getting to that dry time of year when a special upper level pattern is required for widespread rain on the high plains. This is due to the stronger westerly momentum across the Rockies that tends to shunt moisture to the east of here. Probability wise, the grand ensemble indicates only 10-25% chances for .5" or greater of rain by next Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Flight category was gradually improving this afternoon following our latest storm system, and VFR flight category will be resuming this evening as colder, drier air mass continues its march across the western Great Plains, including southwest Kansas. There is no major wind shift in direction or speed through this TAF period as a fairly robust MSLP gradient remains in place with the cold, high surface pressure area still off to our north, at least through early afternoon Friday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch/Bennett AVIATION...Umscheid