658 FXUS65 KFGZ 152116 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 216 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Strong easterly gradients across the southwestern United States will continue through late Friday. Wind speeds by late this morning had exceeded all guidance in a few places, enough to assume that this will continue for awhile. So, we issued a Wind Advisory for our western zones for now. There is also indication that a band of stronger winds will develop over southern Navajo and Apache counties later tonight and more zones may need to be added. By the start of the weekend, the easterlies will subside as a weak upper low off the Baja Peninsula gets picked up by an amplifying eastern Pacific trough. This will, once again, pick up some tropical moisture and slowly introduce shower chances back to our area. By early next week, a strong trough will move into the remnant moisture and provide several days of showers and thunderstorms, possibly even through the end of the week. If this sounds familiar, it is, because we just did it last week. Will this be a repeat? Maybe, stay tuned and find out! && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are northeast to east winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through the period. Winds remain gusty overnight into tomorrow morning, especially along/west of terrain features. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/18Z through Sunday 18/18Z...VFR conditions expected. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible across much of northern AZ on Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Winds are easterly through the period, initially between 15-25 kts with localized gusts 30-40 kts on Friday, becoming lighter at 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Expect cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast to east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through Friday afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along and southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish for Friday night, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 20-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Sunday through Tuesday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, chances increasing and spreading to most of Northern AZ on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  709 FXUS66 KMFR 152118 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and again Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. && .DISCUSSION...Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and 78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances (10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs updated early afternoon...18Z sounding showed 850mb winds of 25-30kt. The risk of bumpy departures/arrivals or even LLWS lessens as vertical mixing increases for a few hours this afternoon. However, once the sun sets this evening, the east to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains, while winds decouple from the boundary layer (surface winds go light) as the low-level inversion redevelops. Since those ESE winds will be just a couple of thousand feet off the surface (again approximately 25-30 kt), there's an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning 01-03Z and lasting until about 15Z. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ MAS  929 FXUS66 KOTX 152125 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 225 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry weather pattern through middle of next week. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Friday. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will occur, before lighter winds and seasonal temperatures to follow Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday night through Saturday: Upper-level ridging strengthens over the Inland Northwest Thursday night into Friday. This will keep weather dry with temperatures warming on Friday into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Changes in the pattern arrive Saturday as a quick moving cold front moves through the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will be rather limited with this front, with nearly all of the precipitation falling west of and at the Cascade crest. There is a small chance for very light rain or sprinkles across northeast Washington with the front, but amounts will be negligible. The primary hazard with this front will be the winds as the PDX-GPI pressure gradient increases to +9-13mb and 850mb winds increase to around 25 to 35 mph. This will support sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 40 mph across the lee of the Cascades, the Columbia Basin, the Spokane/CdA area and the Washington and Idaho Palouse late Saturday morning through the afternoon. The National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilities supports this south a widespread 50% or greater for wind gusts greater than 30 MPH across the aforementioned areas, with an 80% chance or greater across the Waterville Plateau and the upper Columbia Basin. A lack of precipitation in recent weeks across the Columbia Basin, patchy blowing dust will be a concern along with choppy lakes, crosswinds, and airborne Halloween decorations that are not tied down. Sunday through Wednesday: Quiet weather returns for Sunday with temperatures cooling by 3-7 degrees and much lighter winds. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to depict an upper- level trough digging along the west coast early next week, with the base digging into a closed low over California. This evolution will leave the Pacific Northwest under subtle ridging before the upper-level low gets picked back up into the main flow later in the week. Aside from low precipitation chances (10 to 15%) across the Cascade crest Monday night, shifting to the Blue Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle mountains on Tuesday, dry and cool conditions will persist through Wednesday. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just a few passing high clouds through 18z Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to predominately easterly flow with the strongest winds at KPUW during the mornings. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 18Z Friday for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 71 44 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 38 69 42 64 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 40 70 44 65 36 61 / 00 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 39 73 43 72 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 69 36 67 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 66 39 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 38 69 42 63 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 38 70 39 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 69 49 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 43 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  006 FXUS66 KEKA 152128 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 228 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very dry conditions with gusty northeast winds focused in Lake County will increase fire danger Thursday and Friday. * A warming trend peaking Today and Friday with interior highs in the 90s. * Cold front most likely to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. 50% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast. && .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend will peak today and Friday, even for the coast where marine influence remains weak. Cooler and more moist conditions build by the weekend. Early next week && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains over the area this afternoon bringing warm temperatures that are ten to fifteen degrees above normal. An upper level trough continues to drop south through the Great Basin and towards the southern CA coast. This is expected to bring another round of northeast winds to Lake and Mendocino counties tonight and into Friday morning. These winds are expected to continue to bring drier air to the higher elevations. This offshore flow is expected to keep the marine clouds and fog mostly out of the area, although a few local areas of fog are possible. Hot weather is expected to continue in the inland areas on Friday although the coast will be cooler than today. For the weekend flow aloft becomes more zonal as a weather system moves by to the north of the area. This will drop inland temperatures each day and the marine clouds are expected to expand. Sunday high temperatures may struggle to reach 80 in the warmer valleys with cooler temperatures close to the coast. The potential for rain has now pushed back until Monday afternoon or Monday night. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of a wetting rain in Humbodlt and Del Norte counties by Tuesday morning. Farther south probabilities are lower, but there is still the potential for some rain. Some of the models show an upper level low bringing more rain farther south. As the previous system moves out of the area high pressure starts to build back into the area bringing a return of dry weather and how warm it will be. && .AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...Widespread VFR is expected through the day again. Light winds along the coast will lead to decreased chances of any LLT. Late tonight, some of the higher resolution models are suggesting a rebuild of the marine layer, yet confidence is low (~25- 30 %) leading to only a TEMPO group of LIFR for CEC and SCT coverage at ACV for the time being. Ongoing breezy winds inland will continue through midday before calming this afternoon. N-NE winds will be the dominate direction, yet the terrain's influence could cause some shifts in direction through the day, especially in more complex areas. Winds are forecasted to calm again tonight in the valleys with breezes up to 15mph continuing near the ridgelines, especially in eastern Lake and Mendocino counties. DS && .MARINE...Light winds are expected to continue tonight through Friday morning. The waves will remain dominated by a northwest swell and a more southerly swell. The northwest swell is around 5 feet at 12 seconds while the south to southwest swell is around 3 feet at 15 seconds. Friday afternoon northwesterly winds are expected to start building into the waters. These are expected to first increase in the southern waters and then expand north Friday night and Saturday. These are expected to be fairly shortlived and start to diminish on Sunday and especially Sunday night. Lighter winds are expected early next week and they may be southerly. Mid-week northerly winds are expected to increase again. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will peak Thursday and Friday. Interior highs will reach near 90 with RH sticking inthe the teens. ERC values will return close to the 80th percentile, representing moderate to high fire danger. Said percentiles are near record breaking for the time of year but remain much lower than peak summer. Beyond just warm and dry conditions, a very positively tilted trough over the central California Coast will promote moderate northeast winds today, mostly restricted to high ridges as far north as central Humboldt County. Winds will be locally strong in southern and eastern Lake County with gusts mixing in the afternoon over 25 mph. These winds will promote areas of critical fire weather with a Red Flag warning in effect. Tonight the winds are expected to continue over the ridges of eastern and southern Lake county so upgraded and expanded the Fire Weather watch for these locations. It looks like the winds will increase earlier than expected so have started the RWF at 10PM. Northeast winds will weaken Friday, but remain gusty along high ridges at least through the morning. Conditions will be exceptionally dry Friday in the wake of the winds with many interior locations seeing single digit RH. MKK/JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ418- 419. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ418-419. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  398 FXUS66 KPQR 152133 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 232 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures through Friday. Strongest east winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge of high pressure building over the region. High pressure east of the Cascades will maintain low level offshore flow through Friday morning. Pressure gradients between Troutdale and the Dalles has peaked around -6.5 mb which is producing east wind gusts of around 25-35 mph across much of the Portland Metro area, with higher gusts up to 50-55 mph at wind prone and higher terrain areas within the Columbia River Gorge. Model guidance suggests pressure gradients remain around -4 to -6 mb through late Friday morning before easing Friday afternoon. Sunny skies today combined with the dry, offshore flow and mid-level (850 mb) temperatures warming to around 17-18 C will allow afternoon highs to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations reaching 80 degrees, including at the coast. On Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east as an upper level trough lifts NE over the Pacific. Expect increasing high cirrus clouds across the area as the flow aloft turns more southwesterly. Marine stratus will also begin pushing onto the coast as onshore flow returns later Friday afternoon, moderating temperatures at the coast. Otherwise, expect very similar temperatures across the interior lowlands through Friday afternoon. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. A shortwave trough pushing into western Washington early Saturday will send a weak cold across the region. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Dry conditions by afternoon with breezy northerly winds expected behind the front, with temperatures cooling back to near seasonable normals. Will need to watch for potential frost again as overnight temperatures cool Sat night, especially in the Upper Hood River Valley. /DH && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Night...Dry weather expected on Sunday as low amplitude shortwave ridging moves over the region. High confidence for near seasonable temperatures warming into the mid-60s inland and 50s along the coast. Potential for early morning frost continues Sunday night into Monday morning within the Upper Hood River Valley. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying farther offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday remain at around 15-25% along the coast and Coast Range, and 5-15% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. DH/10 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Saturday...Predominately VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through the TAF period as upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Offshore flow continues through Friday, bringing east winds to the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range and to the coast. Breezy winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area with gusts of 25-35 kts to KTTD and 21-25 kt to other Portland area terminals. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are also possible at times through coastal gaps. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect north to northeasterly winds around 5-10 kts. Elevated winds at most locations except near and east of KTTD will decrease after 03-06z Fri, with KTTD decreasing after 18-21z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-25 kt after 19-21z Thu. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -03 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Light east/northeasterly winds are transitioning to north/northwesterly winds over the waters through tonight as a thermal trough slowly breaks down. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  036 FXUS65 KVEF 152145 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 245 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north to northeast winds will continue this afternoon into Friday morning, with gusts of 40 to 50mph across portions of the region. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Thursday. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue across the region this afternoon into Friday as a shortwave continues to dig south along the backside of a broad upper-level trough over the Rocky Mountains. The previous forecast remains on track, with gusts of 25 to 35mph being observed across much of the region. Given the northeast direction of the strong winds, enhanced downslope wind gusts as high as 50mph are possible west of some of the higher terrain, including the Pahrump Valley and areas west of the Hualapai Mountains in Arizona. Strong crosswinds could make driving difficult on I-40 west of the Hualapai Mountains and Highway 160 near Pahrump. No changes have been made to the Wind Advisory, which remains in effect through 11 AM PDT Friday. Winds will diminish Friday afternoon as the trough pulls away. The most significant wind impacts should ease by midday, although breezy northeast to east winds gusting 25 to 35mph are expected through the afternoon. This downward trend will continue Saturday, with light winds returning Sunday onward. After a brief warmup to near normal this afternoon and Friday, temperatures will drop a few degrees to slightly below normal for the weekend. Dry conditions will persist through at least the weekend before attention turns to how a deep West Coast trough interacts with remnant moisture potentially moving into the region from Hurricane Simon. Currently, moisture levels do not look to be as high as what we saw with the remnants of Rachel earlier this week, but the impacts that will be seen in our region remain uncertain. The GFS and ECMWF have different solutions on Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) plume locations and how they interact with the incoming trough. The GFS has 300 to 500kg/m/s IVT values over the lower Colorado River Valley Monday evening, while the ECMWF has values of 250 to 400kg/m/s at the same time, with the higher values displaced farther west over the western Mojave Desert. No major changes to the precipitation forecast have been made with this forecast issuance. Chances remain 30 to 40 percent Tuesday into Wednesday across much of the area, with 20 percent chances lingering into Thursday. Snow levels will be 8000ft to 9000ft, so some light snow accumulations in the higher elevations of southern Nevada are possible, although confidence in these details remains low given how far out this system is in the forecast. With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will remain near or below normal in the extended period. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Clear skies with breezy to strong winds last through the TAF period. Northeast winds are becoming more northerly and will reduce slightly from the stronger gusts observed this afternoon, peaking around 24 kts. These winds will continue into early Friday before reducing again, but remaining breezy. Strong northeast winds return late Friday morning with gusts approaching 30 kts. Gusts and winds reduce again that afternoon before winds ease and gusts cut off into Friday evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Clear skies last through the TAF period. Due to continued sheltering and its position in relation to the upper level pattern, KBIH keeps mostly light to moderate winds, while the rest of the region see strong North toNortheast winds. Gusty north and Northeast winds have arrived across the region, with gusts above 30 kts possible at most TAF sites into the evening (excluding KBIH of course. Winds reduce into the evening and early night but remain breezy to gusty for all but KDAG and KBIH. northerly winds increase again for KEED and KIFP in the late night, while the rest of the region (with exception of KBIH, which stays light) holds off until the mid to late morning before strong winds build back into the area. Winds begin to ease in the mid afternoon for KEED and KIFP, with other sites seeing winds drop off slightly beyond the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Planz AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  287 FXUS63 KIND 152149 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 549 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected into tonight - Isolated severe storms are possible later this afternoon into the evening with potential for isolated damaging winds and tornadoes - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph late tonight into Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 This afternoon through Friday Night... Current surface analysis depicts a low pressure system approaching from the west while an associated warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are now beginning to push into central Indiana. Additional convective development can be expected as the disturbance pushes across the area later today into tonight. Surface observations suggest the warm front is near far southern portions of central Indiana where dewpoints are now in the lower 70s. The warm front will continue lifting northward towards the I-70 corridor. Low-level theta-e advection combined with diurnal heating is expected to promote MLCAPE values of 750 to as high as 1250 J/KG locally later this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile aloft, a mid-level jet streak from the parent trough continues to shift eastward promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Increasing deep-layer shear in addition to modest destabilization could result in isolated severe thunderstorms. Effective shear values exceeding 40 kt are expected which favors the potential for supercells or organized storm clusters. Enlarging low-level veering hodographs from the warm front lifting north could support isolated tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts also appear possible with organized storm clusters. One caveat limiting confidence for the overall severe weather threat is uncertainty on the degree of low-level buoyancy. Forecast soundings from the latest CAMs depict poor lapse rates and relatively long-skinny CAPE profiles. This suggest updraft strength may be limited. However, even weak to modest low-level buoyancy in the favorable kinematic environment could support isolated damaging wind gusts or tornadoes so mesoscale trends will be monitored closely. Modest instability will greatly limit the threat for severe hail though sub-severe hail still appears possible. Expect a cold front to move through late tonight advecting cooler- drier air into the area. Look for precipitation chances to diminish from west to east during the late overnight. Increasingly breezy conditions are likely due to a tightening pressure gradient behind the departing front and steepening low-level lapse rates. Wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph should be common into Friday with sporadic gusts as high as 40 mph. Steepening lapse rates and marginal low- level moisture ahead of a backdoor cold front moving through late Friday will promote scattered convective showers. The parent mid- upper level trough overhead by this point should provide additional forcing for convection. Scattered lingering showers are possible early Friday night, mainly across northwest portions of central Indiana, before the aforementioned system shifts further east. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s Friday night due to the additional shot of cooler air. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in sheltered locations into Saturday morning, but breezy conditions should mostly limit the threat elsewhere. Saturday through the middle of next week... A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal. Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s by early next week. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Long range guidance generally supports quiet weather conditions persisting through the middle of next week as surface high pressure remains in control. Return flow should continue to provide a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 548 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. - SCT to ISO Showers and storms possible this evening. - Wind shifts to NW through the period. - Wind gusts 15-20kt tonight, over 30kt after 15Z Friday. Discussion: MVFR with isolated IFR cigs were found across the TAF sites. An area of showers with warming tops were found near IND and OKK, moving quickly NE. A cold front was still found to the west amid a moderate pressure gradient. Very warm and moist air still remained in place across central Indiana with dew points in the middle and upper 60s. Warm air continued to be advected north across our area on southerly winds ahead of the cold front. HRRR suggests sct/iso shra or tsra possible this evening ahead of the cold front. Confidence/timing for any of this is low and have used a VCSH mention for now through the expected fropa later tonight. Cold air advection and trapped lower level moisture will keep MVFR cigs across Central Indiana tonight and again on Friday. However a moderate pressure gradient in place will allow for possible 30 knt northwest wind gusts through the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...White/Melo  360 FXUS65 KBOI 152152 CCA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 352 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Corrected Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... An upper level ridge over the western United States will remain the dominant weather feature across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Friday night. This will keep atmospheric conditions stable, resulting in clear skies, light surface winds, and temperatures running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry surface layer conditions will also contribute to mild afternoons and efficient radiational cooling at night. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Sunday and Monday, temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A weak cold front on Sunday cools temps a few degrees from Saturday. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough becomes a cut off low in southern California. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and some breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. The low becomes cut off on Tuesday, as the earliest models show the cold front move through. There is still some uncertainty, inherent to cut off lows, that shows the cold front moving through Wednesday. When it passes, it will cool temps down to normal, low 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover, and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1116 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Fog possible again tonight in Eastern Oregon. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM  372 FXUS65 KPIH 152153 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 353 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions are also expected through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure remains in place through the weekend with temperatures continuing to warm to around or slightly above normal. Saturday looks to be the warmest with afternoon highs rising into the mid 60s for many. Dry conditions remain in place through the weekend into the beginning of the work week. Beginning early next week, an upper low drops south along the west coast. Increasing southerly flow looks to bring moisture north into East Idaho by Tuesday, possibly as early as late Monday for some. The southerly flow MAY be able to enhance precipitation into portions of the central mountains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble means dig the upper low south into southern Nevada in a split flow pattern through late Wednesday, then slowly weakens and ejects the trough northeast through the remainder of the week. Clusters tell a much different story with significant differences in treatment of the split low. NBM appears to split the difference, keeping East Idaho unsettled and cool for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure is keeping skies nearly SKC, with just a few clouds overnight at 1500ft to 2500ft AGL at KIDA, KPIH, and KDIJ. Wind staying at 10KT or below. VSBY unrestricted. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High pressure will be in control of our forecast for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Highs will continue to gradually warm with most returning to the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Dry conditions across the area mean min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the Central Mountains on Friday, which looks to be the driest day of the next several. It's not until next week that we see highs drop back into the 50s and precipitation chances return to the forecast. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...TW FIRE WEATHER...Messick  529 FXUS63 KJKL 152156 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 556 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers remain possible at times through Friday night. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered off the Southeast US Coast and extended from the Atlantic into the Southeast Conus. Further west, upper level troughing extended from near Hudson Bay into the Plains to Central Plains. At the surface, a boundary that had stalled out over the area earlier in the day was lifting to the northeast as a warm front in advance of a sfc low tracking from the mid MS Valley vicinity toward the Great Lakes. Isolated mainly weak convection was occurring from the Bluegrass region east near the I-64 corridor into western West Virginia. A few sprinkles were occurring further south. Late afternoon temperatures ranged from the upper 80s near the TN border to the mid to upper 70s in the north and east. The upper level ridge will become centered off the southeast U.S coast tonight and tomorrow which will allow the upper level trough to approach the eastern Conus from the west. An initial shortwave should pass northwest of eastern KY tonight, while the main trough axis progresss into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley tonight and then reaches the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Gulf coast vicinity on Friday evening. This will be preceded by the previously mentioned sfc low tracking across central sections of the Great Lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. The boundary currently lifting north will move north and east of eastern KY this evening. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will progress across the Commonwealth tonight through midday on Friday, crossing eastern KY during the day. Chances for showers wane this evening, with the boundary moving north and loss of daytime heating. With a moist airmass in place and the approaching cold front, mild overnight lows compared to mid October normals are anticipated for tonight. Highs for Friday occur during the morning, before temperatures drop by midday into the afternoon on west to northwest winds. Cooling temperatures aloft and the approach of the upper trough and passing front will result in shower chances for Friday with light amounts. The upper trough continues east and crosses eastern KY on Friday night particularly nearer to the VA border. Lingering low level moisture and upslope flow will result in chances for showers/light rain lingering Friday evening into Friday night. Lows will be cooler than recent nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 555 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The central theme of the long term forecast period is the advection of a cooler and drier airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Saturday. In the wake of Friday's FROPA, a building surface anticyclone will yield northerly and then east-northeasterly surface winds across the forecast area this weekend. Combined with northwesterly flow around the backside of the mean troughing aloft, this shift will end the production of any lingering upslope rain showers by midday Saturday. A modified continental polar airmass moves into the region in its wake, and temperatures will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid 50s in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Increasingly efficient diurnal mixing could lead to breezy wind gusts up to 20mph, but it should also help to scatter out the remaining clouds by Saturday evening. This, in turn, sets the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight, and the area appears primed for the first significant frost of the season by Sunday morning. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions like light winds and mostly clear skies. The aforementioned postfrontal surface high moves overhead on Saturday night, leading to a lighter gradient winds and further reinforcing the notion that the area will see clear skies on Saturday night. The NBM ensemble data continues to resolve a 60-90% chance for minimum temperatures to fall below that 36 degree criterion, and frost headlines are likely to be issued soon. With that being said, the magnitude of the frost will likely be somewhat elevation-dependent. Confidence in widespread frost is greatest in the most sheltered and shaded valley locales, which could make a run at the 32 degree mark. There remains a 20-40% chance within the ensemble data for temperatures to reach the freezing point in the coldest hollows. A freeze is not the most likely forecast solution in our CWA, but given that some of the station-specific MOS guidance explicitly drops temperatures to near 30, trends in the incoming higher-resolution forecast guidance will need to be monitored. With that being said, most of the broader and more populated valley locales across our CWA will experience at least areas of frost on Saturday night. The frost will be patchier atop ridges and in places closer to the mainstem rivers and lakes. Bodies of water intrinsically hold onto heat for longer, and it remains plausible for there to be some patchy river valley fog in their immediate vicinity. This fog would counteract frost formation, so confidence in frost is lowest in places immediately next to the Kentucky, Cumberland, Licking, and Levisa/Tug Fork Rivers. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners should be prepared to take protective actions for any sensitive plants in this time frame, and they are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates and potential product issuances. While Saturday and Saturday night remain the coldest part of the forecast period, there has been a noticeable trend towards slower airmass modification in next week's forecast guidance. More and more ensemble members are pinching off a shortwave within the mean Eastern CONUS troughing on Sunday. That feature spins into a cutoff upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic in the initial stages of the next work week. The presence of this feature will block/delay the eastward propagation of a mid/upper level ridge in the Ozarks, which, in turn, will prevent temperatures from quickly rebounding into the 70s in our forecast area. Rather, temperatures will gradually rise towards afternoon highs in the 60s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some patchy frost is possible in the favored hollows at night, but the overarching warming trend (albeit slower) will eventually favor lows in the 40s and valley fog. With fair skies in the forecast, Eastern Kentucky should get to enjoy a prolonged period of quiet autumnal weather early next week. The forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and beyond. There are diverging model solutions surrounding that low pressure system's evolution, with some guidance even suggesting a potential hybrid tropical cyclone along the east coast. Others take the low out to sea, which would allow the building southern CONUS ridge to exert more influence over the Ohio River Valley. It is difficult to pinpoint specific temperature forecast details towards the end of the period as a result, but both camps favor dry weather in the region. The CPC Days 6-10 and Days 8-14 Outlooks resolve a 40-60% chance of below-normal precipitation in Eastern Kentucky, and climatologically speaking, this is already the driest time of the year here. D0 "Abnormally Dry" conditions were expanded across portions of the commonwealth in today's Drought Monitor update. Expect these contours to be maintained or perhaps even expand as this dry pattern sets up and potentially persist through the end of the month. Fire weather interests are encouraged to monitor for future updates on that topic as the time approaches. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026 At issuance time, VFR was reported for southern TAF locations such as KSME and KLOZ, while MVFR to IFR, and in some cases lower reductions were reported in locations further to the north including KJKL, KSJS, KIOB, and KSYM. A few showers were moving across northern and eastern sections as a boundary continues to lift back north. With daytime heating, gradual improvements should occur during the fist 6 hours of the period for the 4 more northern TAF locations with VFR continuing in the south. Also, additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop and affect KSJS, KIOB, KJKL, and KSYM during the first 6 hours of the period. Chances for showers diminish quickly thereafter, with mainly VFR anticipated between 00Z and 12Z. A cold front will near and move across the area to end the period. This will likely bring a return of low clouds including some MVFR or perhaps lower ceilings and the chance for showers. Winds will average south to west at generally 10KT or less through 12Z, before becoming westerly at 6 to 12KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...JP  543 FXUS65 KPSR 152156 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 256 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind advisories in effect tonight through Saturday morning across southern Arizona and southeast California, with breezy to windy conditions expected as forecast peak wind gusts reach up to 40-55 mph. - Strong winds on Friday will likely lead to widespread lofted dust, leading to hazy conditions, and localized dust channels occasionally reducing visibility below one mile. - Dry weather with near normal temperatures the next couple days, then slightly cooler with a slight chances for rain showers this weekend. - A Pacific low pressure system moving down the coast early next week is currently forecast to bring regional rain chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures by the middle to latter portions of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry conditions under clear skies continue across the area today. Synoptically a blocking pattern is developing with high pressure ridging spreading into the Northwest CONUS and a developing weak cutoff low south of it over the local area. Despite the developing cutoff low, H5 heights have risen over the last 24 hours and temperatures have warmed 5-10 degrees across southern AZ and southeast CA. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s and there is around a 60-70% chance of reaching 90 degrees in Phoenix. High temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today, except for the western deserts where it will be a few degrees warmer, reaching the low 90s. Temperatures then cool down again for Saturday with an increase in clouds, possibly some light showers/virga, and cold air advection from the east. The main sensible weather impact the next few days will be the wind and perhaps a lot of lofted dust as a result. This may be one of the the strongest easterly gradient wind events of the last decade. Surface analysis at midday today showed a strong 1040-1042mb high centered over Montana, which is near record strength for this time of year. The pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the lower pressure over the local area is leading to breezy to locally windy conditions across northern AZ and across parts of southeast CA this afternoon. Wind gusts were consistently reaching 35-40 mph across these areas early this afternoon. As the strong surface high spreads further into the Plains and south along the southern Rockies, the pressure gradient will continue to increase across the local area and as a result so will the winds. A strong cold front moving south through the Plains will backdoor into southern AZ tonight/tomorrow morning. Models continue to show 850mb LLJ winds reaching 40-50 kts over south-central AZ early tomorrow morning, and even upwards of 60 kts across southeast AZ. While these winds are not expected to fully mix to the surface, the strong gradient will still lead to widespread 20-25 mph sustained and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Higher peak wind gusts up to 45-50 mph are expected, with locally up to 55 mph over mountain peaks, but the window for these stronger gusts will mostly be in the morning tomorrow and again Saturday morning. Winds this strong will surely kick up a lot of dust and create hazy conditions, and will likely lead to some dust channels developing, with reduction in visibilities to under 1 mile at times, depending on land use. Wind advisories will be in effect for this wind event, starting initially this evening across southeast CA and along the Lower Colorado River Valley with 35-45 mph northerly winds. Southwest and south-central AZ are then added to the advisory tomorrow morning. The decision was made to add the greater Phoenix area to the advisory fora period from 8 AM - 3 PM MST. During this period, model soundings show potential for 30-35 kt (35-40 mph) to mix down to the surface. The advisory for Pinal and southern Gila counties will continue through Saturday morning, as the easterly LLJ restrengthens overnight, and portions of southwest AZ will likely be re-added the advisory for Saturday morning as well. As mentioned there will be an increase in clouds Saturday, as moisture is drawn north into the area by the weak cutoff low to the southwest. Vertical cross-sections and model soundings show this moisture will mostly be focused aloft between 700-300mb with a dry sub-cloud layer. Still, soundings suggest thick clouds with potential for light showers and virga beginning around midday and heading into the afternoon Saturday. Model guidance also shows a wing of vorticity or shortwave trough moving up from the south Saturday, with an enhancement to the upper level jet. This should provide decent ascent over southern AZ and further support at least light shower/virga activity. NBM PoPs Saturday are only around 10-20% across south-central AZ (30% east of Phoenix) and QPF is very light with NBM 75th percentile only showing 0.01" for Phoenix to 0.10" for southern Gila County. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The strong pressure gradient and resultant strong easterly winds across southern AZ will weaken heading into Sunday as the strong surface high in the Plains weakens and shifts to the Mid-Atlantic. There will still be some easterly breeziness, but nowhere near the magnitude of Friday through Saturday. The synoptic pattern will also shift, with the ridge over the Northwest CONUS sliding east through the Plains and the cutoff low will also weaken into an open wave and lift through the area Sunday-Monday, downstream of the next Fall trough digging down the West Coast. Lingering light showers are possible across portions of AZ, mainly east and southeast AZ, Sunday into the start of next week downstream of the lingering shortwave trough, but drier air is shown to move in aloft prior to the arrival of the next coastal trough. Temperatures should warm Sunday into the start of next week with the latest NBM showing highs returning back close to normal by Monday. Tuesday through the middle of next week forecast confidence decreases as model spread increases considerably. Most notably there is a lot of model disagreement on timing out when the coastal trough will move inland, how quickly, and how deep the trough will be. Typically models will trend toward the slower solutions with these coastal lows. So, something moving through late week is the current thinking. This next coastal trough will bring chances for rain, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures, but to what magnitude is still uncertain. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1655Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Increasingly gusty winds and lofted dust will be the main weather impacts through Friday afternoon under clear skies. Confidence is good that winds will obtain a NE trajectory through the afternoon with gusts near 20kt. Confidence is lower with respect to gustiness after sunset as some areas will partially decouple and lose gusts, while other aerodromes maintain some measure of gustiness through the overnight. As a result, LLWS criteria may only become localized and brief in nature. Confidence is very good that increased gusts will materialize Friday mid morning with the strongest 30-35kt gusts likely in a 16-20Z time frame. Given uncertainties in recent land use, sfc BLDU may become a local issue with some potential for a period of MVFR visibilities. Regardless, lofted dust should become a more significant impact throughout the entire daylight period Friday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will be the primary weather impact through Friday afternoon under mostly clear skies. North winds with gusts 20-30kt will be common through the overnight with some potential for partial decoupling and temporary loss of gustiness after sunset. Confidence is good that winds will back to an E/NE direction late Friday morning with gusts maintaining 20-30kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will persist over the region over the next couple of days with mostly clear skies and seasonally low humidities. MinRHs will be between 15-30% across the region through Saturday. North and northeasterly breezes up to 25-35 mph are expected through this evening in portions of southeast CA and along the lower CO River Valley, as well as in the mountains north and northeast of of Phoenix. Winds turn easterly and become stronger tonight through Saturday across southern AZ. Winds will be strongest over mountain tops during the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow and Saturday, with gusts up to 50-55 mph. Strong gusty winds will spread more to the lower deserts during the daylight hours and be strongest in the morning through early afternoon tomorrow, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. These strong easterlies and 20-25% RHs may still create locally elevated fire weather conditions midday through the afternoon tomorrow, but fuels are not the most receptive after recent rains. The easterly breezes will not be nearly as strong during the day Saturday and will trend down further into Sunday. Light showers are possible this weekend, but the chance for wetting rain is low (<10%). A Pacific trough is expected to bring regional rain chances, breezy winds, and cooler temperatures next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ... Wind Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547- 552-553-555-557-558-560>562. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Friday for AZZ530. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ531>534-536- 538-539-554-559. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM MST Friday for AZZ537-540>546- 548>551. CA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Friday for CAZ564-565-568>570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Benedict